Chapter 5 & 6 QMB
If the multiplicative decomposition model is used to forecast daily sales for a retail store, how many seasons will there be?
7
Qualitative forecasting models include
Delphi
If the seasonal index for January is 0.80, then
January sales tend to be 20% lower than an average month.
Which of the following methods produces a particularly stiff penalty in periods with large forecast errors?
MSE
An exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 1 would result in the same forecast as
a naïve forecast
Which of the following is not a part of every linear programming problem formulation?
a redundant constraint
Which of the following is used to alert the user of a forecasting model that a significant error occurred in one of the periods?
a tracking signal
The computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment is referred to as
adaptive smoothing
Which of the following is not a property of linear programs?
at least two separate feasible regions
Which of the following may be negative?
bias
Which of the following methods tells whether the forecast tends to be too high or too low?
bias
A constraint with zero slack or surplus is called a
binding constraint
Which of the following is not a component of a time series?
causal variations
In exponential smoothing, if you wish to give a significant weight to the most recent observations, then the smoothing constant should be
close to 1
The mathematical theory behind linear programming states that an optimal solution to any problem will lie at a(n) ________ of the feasible region.
corner point or extreme point
The process of isolating linear trend and seasonal factors to develop more accurate forecasts is called
decomposition
Which of the following is a time-series model?
exponential smoothing
Which of the following is not classified as a qualitative forecasting model?
exponential smoothing
As one increases the number of periods used in the calculation of a moving average
less emphasis is placed on more recent data.
A widely used mathematical programming technique designed to help managers and decision making relative to resource allocation is called
linear programming
Which of the following is a technique used to determine forecasting accuracy?
mean absolute percent error
A feasible solution to a linear programming problem
must satisfy all of the problem's constraints simultaneously
In picking the smoothing constant for an exponential smoothing model, we should look for a value that
produces values which compare well with actual values based on a standard measure of error
One example of a causal model is
regression analysis
Sales for a company are typically higher in the summer months than in the winter months. This variation would be called a
seasonal factor
If both trend and seasonal components are present in a time series, then the seasonal indices
should be computed based on CMAs
Which of the following is not an assumption of LP?
simultaneity
The difference between the left-hand side and right-hand side of a less-than-or-equal-to constraint is referred to as
slack
A trend equation is a regression equation in which
the independent variable is time
If one changes the contribution rates in the objective function of an LP,
the slope of the isoprofit or isocost line will change.
Infeasibility in a linear programming problem occurs when
there is no solution that satisfies all the constraints given
A forecasting model that uses only historical data for the variable being forecast is called a
time-series model
Which of the following is not considered to be one of the components of a time series?
variance
When comparing several forecasting models to determine which one best fits a particular set of data, the model that should be selected is the one
with the lowest MAD
When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naïve forecasting model?
α = 1
