Classical, Empirical, Subjective Probability

A phone manufacturer finds that 1 out of every 378 phones is defective. Is this an example of classical, empirical, or subjective probability?

Example of Empirical

A coin is flipped 8 times and all 8 times it lands on heads. You think that the next flip has 100% chance of being tails. Is this an example of classical, empirical, or subjective probability?

Example of Subjective

Kiara flips a coin 6 times. She got 4 heads and 2 tails. What is the actual probability she will flip a heads on her next flip?

1/2

Julia interviewed people to see how satisfied they are with the president. 17 said they were satisfied, 4 said they were not sure, and 14 said they were not satisfied. What is the probability the next person she interviews is satisfied?

17/35

Jill flips a coin 6 times. She got 4 heads and 2 tails. Using this data, what is the probability she gets a heads on her next flip?

2/3

Georgina was trying to determine how many students at her high school had their own cars. She sent out a google form asking people to answer if they had their own car, used a parents car, or had no car. 9 students said they owned a car, 17 students said they used their parents car, and 35 said they did not have any car. What is the probability the next person she receives a form from has no car?

35/61

Law of large numbers

A phenomenon that illustrates the connection between empirical and classical probability. As an experiment is repeated, the empirical/experimental probability of an event will approach the theoretical/classical probability of the event.

Subjective Probability Definition

A probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact information

Finding the probability of rolling a dice three times and getting 6 three times in a row is an example of classical, empirical, or subjective probability?

Example of Classical

Difference between Classical & Empirical probability

Classical probability uses the sample space, empirical probability uses actual data based on observation.

Formula for Empirical Probability

P(E)=frequency of event E/Total Frequency

Empirical Probability Definition

uses actual data to determine the numerical probability that an even will happen