Critical Thinking in Psychology - CH 9, 10,11
What are some of the factors to be considered that make conspiracy difficult if not impossible?
1) the fact that all humans are highly competitive against each other at all levels, 2) the fact that who profits from a conspiracy is difficult to pinpoint, 3) thirdly the fact that it attributes very special callous qualities to a small group of people to the exclusion of all others, 4)fourthly it is unlikely that the conspirators are so homogenous and wide spread, in other words, that there is real unity among them. Finally the fact that the psychological benefits of the privileged position the savior feels to be in, is very resistant to change.
How can post-hockery be avoided?
By assuming a balanced and disciplined position in discovery and verification. In the context of discovery it is important to exercise a great deal of wonder, and consider multiple hypothesis. In verification, on the other hand, it is important to exercise a great deal of skepticism, subjecting one's judgments to the same rigorous tests that one demands of others.
What is the difference between discovery and verification?
Discovery refers to the exploration of new ideas and hypothesis or thesis. Verification refers to process following discovery, where scientific tools can be used to verify the validity of any statement.
When is post-hockery found?
It is found in explanations that cannot make predictions of future events connected with the statements. Post-hockery can only explain past-events, thus when we can only see meaning by looking backwards, post-hockery is indicated.
What do we mean by confirmation bias?
Our selective search for information that confirms (rather than refutes) our views.
What needs to be noticed about the need for feed-back in human judgment?
That although humans desire feed-back to evaluate and modify their views, due to cognitive and attentional bias feed-back is rarely attended to in a systematic and objective way. Much of the feedback we receive is most often skewed towards the positive and thus systematically misleading.
What is the Barnum effect?
The Barnum effect refers to the impression that a very generalized statement has actually been made specifically for you.
What are the typical roles found in Conspiracy Theories? And what are the psychological temptations to see conspiracy?
The three main roles are those of Conspirators, Saviors and Dupes. The driving force of Conspiracy Theories is the Saviors roles. The saviors are in the privileged position to think that 1) they possess secret information 2) they are in a position to wipe clean the world of lies and deceit and replace it with truth. The Savior finds purpose and meaning in this interpretation of life.
What does research suggest about our own confidence?
The we are mostly over confident. Once we have discovered a personally meaningful relationship between events, unearthed confirmatory evidence, and receive flattering feedback, hindsight monopolizes our judgment.
What do we mean by the influence of vividness on our judgments?
Vividness refers to our tendency to attend to and remember more strongly or easily information that is concrete, personal and emotional. The media makes wide use of vividness.
