E&E Global Food Crisis

how does TANSTAAFL work in terms of increase in food production?

planting on soil too much leads to soil erosion, irrigating in dry areas leads to salinization (all water has some said and can end up in soil and then plants), irrigating without proper draining leads to water logging, overcultivating dry areas leads to desertification

what are the top 3 calorie sources in the US?

1) burgers, sandwiches, tacos 2) desserts and sweets 3) vegetables (in Vegas, at the Heart Attack Grill they sell "bypass burgers." Luther Burger is made out of donuts

what are the 3 stages societies go through when growing?

1) high birth and high death rates, 2) better medicine lower death rate but birth rate stays high (leads to growth) 3) education lower birth rates (stability is when low birth rates = low death rates)

meat consumption dates to first humans, and increased with domestication of animals, what percentage of the world's diet is meet?

10-20% (wide variety by nation, depends where you are)

how many CAFOs are in the US?

16000 (produce over half of the worlds meat, animals are confined in area for at least 45 days in a 12 month period, very efficient)

who believes that the population boom is not an issue and that people will find solutions. That it will lead to more people to figure out solutions?

Julian Simon (economist as UMD)

when was the Green Revolution, in which we increased food production?

1950s-2000

what is the replacement level and which countries are below it?

2 kids per family, US, Canada, Russia, Chile, Australia, Italy

what percentage of the world's protein comes from fish?

20-30%

how much of the worlds calories come from grains, what are 4 different types of grains, how has grain production increased from 1960 to 2000?

50%, wheat, oats, barley, rice, 200% increase

how many people are in the world today? what's the rate like?

7.3 billion. Increasing, but rate is slowing

an animal feeding operation with more than 1000 animals.. they confine animals and mess them up for mass meat

CAFO (concentrated animal feeding operation)

how has meat in the US kept up with consumption

CAFO (concentrated animal feeding operation)

which country is number 1 in meat per capita?

US (per capita yearly consumption of 239 pounds, more than half a pound a day)

what is the only state with labeling laws for genetically modified foods?

Vermont (2016) (CA, WA, Co, OR voters rejected this)

the farming of aquatic organisms by cultivating freshwater and saltwater populations under controlled conditions.

aquaculture (has led humans now eating more farm than wild fish) (questions on taste, nutrition, diversity)

what are some other fishing policy options?

aquaculture, individual fishing quotas (used in Canada, Australia, NZ. market oriented. can't reach quota? sell rights), voluntary changes in habits

how do you calculate the time to double populations?

birth rate - death rate, percentage over 1000, compound interest (ex: phillipines 50-30=20/1000=2%=35 years)

what are concerns over CAFOs?

brutal conditions (animals can't move) manse-related pollutants, indirect health effects (antibiotics)

what is the future of labeling?

congress is considering banning mandatory labeling (voluntary by Whole Foods and Cheerios

what is the biggest obstacle to sustainable agriculture?

cost

what are some concerns with GMFs?

costs, power concentrated in few corporations, homogeneity (lose diversity), bio-resistance

the transfer of pollen from an anther of a flower of one plant to the stigma of a flower of another plant of the same species

cross-pollination

when were gmfs developed and introduced?

developed in 1980s, introduced in 1990s (fastest growing agriculture technology in history) (potentially 2nd green revolution)(over 90% of corn, over 93% of soybeans, 99% of sugar beats)

what does the Kuznets curve say about environmental problems?

economic growth can reduce environmental impact (as economy develops, market forces first increase then decrease income inequality)

what are characteristics of gmfs?

enhance genes in plants (or animals) to make them more productive, pest resistant, drought resistant

in potential response 2, what are some efforts at the birth rate solution?

family planning, abstinence, contraception, abortion, sterilization

what is the impact of the global foods suboptimal distribution? how many people in the world don't eat enough daily?

food scarcity, 1 in 5 people

what has been the 2nd Green Revolution response to these issues?

genetically modified foods (gmos)

what is Potential Response 1 to the global food problem?

improve distribution by trading for needed goods and donations (developing nations have little money to buy and are in debt. Developing nations end up depleting their resource base to get food, which is not a long term solution. They face protectionism in developed nations - 1/4 of exports from poor nations face tariffs which makes it hard for them to trade). (problems with donations are that they may not be effective. People will eat the seeds and not plant them, government corruption. Like in Somalia and Black Hawk Down, war lords getting all donations and using it to increase power)

how did the US respond to the birth rate solution?

in the 70s we supported it, in 84s Reagan Administration we stopped (stopped funding UN programs, no money to programs allowing forced abortions, motivated by China's policies).

how did we achieve the Green Revolution?

increased potential yield by converting forests to farms and irrigating dry areas (made more land available for production)

when was birth rate solution introduced? who provides money for it? what was the reception to it?

international conferences since 1970s, UN Population Fund provides money, varying reception

how does the world doubling time change over centuries?

it decreases (a couple centuries ago it was as high as 500 years. Today its about 60 years)

what has been the rate of meat consumption over time? and per capita recently?

it has increased for both developed and developing countries, per capita has recently dipped (beef has lowered bc of price and vegetarianism, chicken has gone up, pork has been stable)

theres a wide variety in fish consumption by nation because of location, but how has worldwide fish harvest rate been affected by population?

its increased (2nd half of 20th century)

what is the current issue with genetically modified foods?

labeling (right to know if gm ingredients?)

what does the IPCC 2014 Report say about the increase in CO2? (2)

leads to more weeds than grains, higher temperatures result in reduced grain yields (so increased food production is potentially in jeopardy)

what are the climate impacts of meat consumption?

livestock generates 18% of GHG emissions (more than cars, trucks planes. Sheep are even worse than beef, cheese also is a huge contributor).

how does Norman Borlaugh believe we can increase our actual yield? (3)

mechanized faming, high-yield strains, intensive use of chemicals (fertilizers and pesticides grew out of WWII, went from 15 million tons of fertilizer in 1950 to 150 million in 2000). (however, TANSTAAFL)

how has the world wild fish harvest per person rate moved?

per capita has levels off and is decreasing per year

since when have global food resources been on the agenda?

since 1970s

what has been the consequences in the past 10 years of this production issue?

slowed productivity, less available land, reduced production per capita, higher prices

what is Potential Response 2 to the global food problem?

stabilize population through death rate solution and birth rate solution (is death rate solution ethical? to only help some poor nations, let death reduce population in others? we are already letting this happen with epidemics in Africa, too many people over there... birth rate solution is reducing birth rate in developing nations).

what stage in society growth are many nations stuck in?

stages 1 or 2

besides gmf's there has been increased attention, growth and use to what?

sustainable agriculture (small-scale, local, organic... some studies think it can feed the world's population

what does Ehrlich's IPAT equation mean in Population Bomb?

Impact = (population)(affluence)(technology)

who wrote the first paper on the fear of population growth, what was it called?

Malthus (1798), An Essay on the Principle of Population (food growth at arithmetic rate, population growth at geometric rate. at some point population will exceed food, leading to famine)

NOTE: China - in late 1970s they limited births to 1 child/family. there were fines for violations of the policy and there were incentives. Tons of stories of forced abortions and sterilizations. This led to a skewed gender ratio of 118 boys to 100 girls. they ended the policy in 2013.

NOTE: China - in late 1970s they limited births to 1 child/family. there were fines for violations of the policy and there were incentives. Tons of stories of forced abortions and sterilizations. This led to a skewed gender ratio of 118 boys to 100 girls. they ended the policy in 2013.

NOTE: GMFs lead to increases in yield, no evidence yet of harms to health) 88% of scientists say they are safe, but only 37% of public think they are safe Europe is hostile towards the idea, but US government is supportive, agencies and courts as well

NOTE: GMFs lead to increases in yield, no evidence yet of harms to health) 88% of scientists say they are safe, but only 37% of public think they are safe Europe is hostile towards the idea, but US government is supportive

NOTE: Garret Hardin's Lifeboat Ethics - 50 people are on lifeboat, it has capacity for 60 people. 100 people are trying to get in. if we let them all in, everyone dies, but how do you pick the 10 people that would be within capacity? the harsh effects of the lifeboat become harsher when you consider the reproductive differences between the rich and poor nations. People inside the lifeboat are doubling in numbers every 87 years, those swimming around outside are doubling every 35 years.

NOTE: Garret Hardin's Lifeboat Ethics - 50 people are on lifeboat, it has capacity for 60 people. 100 people are trying to get in. if we let them all in, everyone dies, but how do you pick the 10 people that would be within capacity? the harsh effects of the lifeboat become harsher when you consider the reproductive differences between the rich and poor nations. People inside the lifeboat are doubling in numbers every 87 years, those swimming around outside are doubling every 35 years.

NOTE: Monsanto vs. Bowman (2013) Supreme Court patent decision the Court unanimously affirmed the the patent exhaustion doctrine does not permit a farmer to plant and grow saved, patented seeds without the patent owner's permission. Bowman was a farmer who bout these seeds from other farmers and replanted them. Monsanto filed a lawsuit against him and won

NOTE: Monsanto vs. Bowman (2013) Supreme Court patent decision the Court unanimously affirmed the the patent exhaustion doctrine does not permit a farmer to plant and grow saved, patented seeds without the patent owner's permission. Bowman was a farmer who bout these seeds from other farmers and replanted them. Monsanto filed a lawsuit against him and won

NOTE: Monsanto vs. Geertson Seed Farms (2010) Supreme Court Case (7-1) for Monsanto this allowed Monsanto to sell genetically modified seeds (cross-pollination) to farmers, and allowed farmers to plant, grow, harvest and sell them. the case came about because the use of the seeds was approved by regulatory authority

NOTE: Monsanto vs. Geertson Seed Farms (2010) Supreme Court Case (7-1) for Monsanto this allowed Monsanto to sell genetically modified seeds (cross-pollination) to farmers, and allowed farmers to plant, grow, harvest and sell them. the case came about because the use of the seeds was approved by regulatory authority

NOTE: TANSTAAFL extra notes on increased growth... pesticides and fertilizers have diminishing returns, bc insects evolve super fasts. increasing costs. amount of land available has leveled off hectares per capita have decreased from 1970-2010 world grain stocks have leveled off/started decreasing world grain yields went up and then down because of pesticides, there is less honey and bees are suffering.

NOTE: TANSTAAFL extra notes on increased growth... pesticides and fertilizers have diminishing returns, bc insects evolve super fasts. increasing costs. amount of land available has leveled off hectares per capita have decreased from 1970-2010 world grain stocks have leveled off/started decreasing world grain yields went up and then down because of pesticides, there is less honey and bees are suffering.

NOTE: US changes in Policy - Bush Sr. cuts money to UN Population Fund, in 93 Clinton restores it (promises none to China), in 01 Bush Jr. stops funding, in 2009 Obama restores funding its clearly a partisan issue based on the abortion aspect of the funding.

NOTE: US changes in Policy - Bush Sr. cuts money to UN Population Fund, in 93 Clinton restores it (promises none to China), in 01 Bush Jr. stops funding, in 2009 Obama restores funding its clearly a partisan issue based on the abortion aspect of the funding.

NOTE: a gene-altered apple was approved recently

NOTE: a gene-altered apple was approved recently

NOTE: environmental groups want tougher regulations on pollutants, antibiotics, but its difficult due to limited transparency. In California, hens have to have a lot of space in their cages other options include grass-fed beef or free-range beef, sin taxes on meet, or voluntary changes in behavior

NOTE: environmental groups want tougher regulations on pollutants, antibiotics, but its difficult due to limited transparency. In California, hens have to have a lot of space in their cages other options include grass-fed beef or free-range beef, sin taxes on meet, or voluntary changes in behavior

NOTE: increased fish harvesting has increased in 2nd half of 20th century due to industrial fishing. Factory ships work 24/7 for a year at a time. they drift nets and sweep oceans

NOTE: increased fish harvesting has increased in 2nd half of 20th century due to industrial fishing. Factory ships work 24/7 for a year at a time. they drift nets and sweep oceans

NOTE: meat is water-intensive. for 1kg of potatoes, you need 500 liters, wheat, 900 liters, beef 15000 liters

NOTE: meat is water-intensive. for 1kg of potatoes, you need 500 liters, wheat, 900 liters, beef 15000 liters

NOTE: the bad thing about increase in fish harvesting is that TANSTAAFL.... theres little control over access, leading to TOTC, which leads to depletion (The Perfect Storm) in New England fisheries, they were very prolific areas for cod, swordfish, by 1963 populations were cut by 70%. in 2014 they closed the area for 6 months

NOTE: the bad thing about increase in fish harvesting is that TANSTAAFL.... theres little control over access, leading to TOTC, which leads to depletion (The Perfect Storm) in New England fisheries, they were very prolific areas for cod, swordfish, by 1963 populations were cut by 70%. in 2014 they closed the area for 6 months

besides Malthus' earliest paper, what was another famous paper talking about the fear of population boom?

Population Bomb, Ehrlich (1960s) (restates Malthus)

why so much meat consumption in US?

no dominant food tradition, few vegetarians (but increasing.. 18% of college students), its abundant and readily available.

what is a concern about our current population composition?

old-age insurance. smaller percentage of population is under 25 so concerns of sustainability

how many fisheries around the world are fully exploited?

over half (many fish species are now in danger... "fishing down the food latter" shark fins are expensive, now they are 10% of their 1950 level)

what are some fishing Policy Options?

regulate yield (limit catch per species), regulate methods (ban bottom trawling)( hard to get agreement), Ocean preserves (no fish zones, 40 nations have these, largest is one from Obama last year just South of Hawaii)

what is the deal with global food resources?

we have enough food around the world to feed the world's population, but its suboptimally distributed.

what is the difference in meet consumption due to?

wealth, per capita GDP vs. per capita meat consumption per year is a pretty linear curve (some nations are outliers. Japan has wealth and little meat, US eats way more meat)

so far, can food and water keep pace with our population?

yes