Econ Test 2 Chapter 6
Over the next three years, the expected path of 1-year interest rates is 4, 1, and 1 percent. The expectations theory of the term structure predicts that the current interest rate on 3-year bond is
2 percent.
If the expected path of 1-year interest rates over the next four years is 5 percent, 4 percent, 2 percent, and 1 percent, then the expectations theory predicts that today's interest rate on the four-year bond is
3 percent.
If 1-year interest rates for the next three years are expected to be 4, 2, and 3 percent, and the 3-year term premium is 1 percent, than the 3-year bond rate will be
4 percent.
If 1-year interest rates for the next five years are expected to be 4, 2, 5, 4, and 5 percent, and the 5-year term premium is 1 percent, than the 5-year bond rate will be
5 percent.
If the expected path of one-year interest rates over the next five years is 4 percent, 5 percent, 7 percent, 8 percent, and 6 percent, then the expectations theory predicts that today's interest rate on the five-year bond is
6 percent.
Which of the following long-term bonds has the highest interest rate?
Corporate Baa bonds
Which of the following bonds would have the highest default risk?
Junk bonds
Which of the following statements are true?
The expected return on corporate bonds decreases as default risk increases
Which of the following bonds are considered to be default-risk free?
U.S. Treasury bonds
Which of the following securities has the lowest interest rate?
U.S. Treasury bonds
If you have a very low tolerance for risk, which of the following bonds would you be least likely to hold in your portfolio?
a corporate bond with a rating of Baa
If the yield curve slope is flat for short maturities and then slopes steeply upward for longer maturities, the liquidity premium theory (assuming a mild preference for shorter-term bonds) indicates that the market is predicting
a decline in short-term interest rates in the near future and a rise further out in the future.
When the yield curve is flat or downward-sloping, it suggest that the economy is more likely to enter
a recession.
A plot of the interest rates on default-free government bonds with different terms to maturity is called
a yield curve.
A key assumption in the segmented markets theory is that bonds of different maturities
are not substitutes at all.
According to the expectations theory of the term structure, the interest rate on a long-term bond will equal the ________ of the short-term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-term bond.
average
When short-term interest rates are expected to fall sharply in the future, the yield curve will
be inverted.
According to the liquidity premium theory, a yield curve that is flat means that
bond purchasers expect interest rates to fall in the future.
According to the liquidity premium theory of the term structure, a flat yield curve indicates that short-term interest rates are expected to
decline moderately in the future.
Risk premiums on corporate bonds tend to ________ during business cycle expansions and ________ during recessions, everything else held constant.
decrease; increase
If investors expect interest rates to fall significantly in the future, the yield curve will be inverted. This means that the yield curve has a ________ slope.
downward
The U-shaped yield curve in the figure above indicates that short-term interest rates are expected to
fall sharply in the near-term and rise later on.
The U-shaped yield curve in the figure above indicates that the inflation rate is expected to
fall sharply in the near-term and rise later on.
Corporate bonds are not as liquid as government bonds because
fewer corporate bonds for any one corporation are traded, making them more costly to sell.
Typically, yield curves are
gently upward sloping.
Everything else held constant, the interest rate on municipal bonds rises relative to the interest rate on Treasury securities when
income tax rates are lowered.
According to the segmented markets theory of the term structure
interest rates on bonds of different maturities do not move together over time
According to the expectations theory of the term structure
interest rates on bonds of different maturities move together over time
Bonds with relatively low risk of default are called ________ securities and have a rating of Baa (or BBB) and above; bonds with ratings below Baa (or BBB) have a higher default risk and are called ________.
investment grade; junk bonds
Bonds with relatively high risk of default are called
junk bonds
The risk premium on corporate bonds reflects the fact that corporate bonds have a higher default risk and are ________ U.S. Treasury bonds.
less liquid than
A particularly attractive feature of the ________ is that it tells you what the market is predicting about future short-term interest rates by just looking at the slope of the yield curve.
liquidity premium theory
The preferred habitat theory of the term structure is closely related to the
liquidity premium theory of the term structure
An increase in default risk on corporate bonds ________ the demand for these bonds, but ________ the demand for default-free bonds, everything else held constant.
lowers; increases
A bond with default risk will always have a ________ risk premium and an increase in its default risk will ________ the risk premium
positive; raise
An increase in the liquidity of corporate bonds, other things being equal, shifts the demand curve for corporate bonds to the ________ and the demand curve for Treasury bonds shifts to the ________.
right; left
The mound-shaped yield curve in the figure above indicates that short-term interest rates are expected to
rise in the near-term and fall later on.
The mound-shaped yield curve in the figure above indicates that the inflation rate is expected to
rise moderately in the near-term and fall later on.
The spread between the interest rates on bonds with default risk and default-free bonds is called the
risk premium
In actual practice, short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates usually move together; this is the major shortcoming of the
segmented markets theory.
When yield curves are flat,
short-term interest rates are about the same as long-term interest rates.
The steeply upward sloping yield curve in the figure above indicates that ________ interest rates are expected to ________ in the future.
short-term; rise
A ________ yield curve predicts a future increase in inflation.
steeply upward sloping
The additional incentive that the purchaser of a Treasury security requires to buy a long-term security rather than a short-term security is called the
term premium.
Municipal bonds have default risk, yet their interest rates are lower than the rates on default-free Treasury bonds. This suggests that
the benefit from the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds exceeds their default risk
U.S. government bonds have no default risk because
the federal government can increase taxes to pay its obligations.
According to the segmented markets theory of the term structure
the interest rate for each maturity bond is determined by supply and demand for that maturity bond.
Everything else held constant, if income tax rates were lowered, then
the interest rate on municipal bonds would rise.
Risk Structure of Interest Rates
the relationship among interest rates of different bonds with the same maturity
The term structure of interest rates is
the relationship among interest rates on bonds with different maturities.
The segmented markets theory can explain
why yield curves usually tend to slope upward.
The spread between interest rates on low quality corporate bonds and U.S. government bonds
widened significantly during the Great Depression.
An inverted yield curve predicts that short-term interest rates
will fall in the future.
According to the expectations theory of the term structure
yield curves should be equally likely to slope downward as slope upward
A decrease in default risk on corporate bonds ________ the demand for these bonds, and ________ the demand for default-free bonds, everything else held constant.
increases; lowers
Everything else held constant, an increase in marginal tax rates would likely have the effect of ________ the demand for municipal bonds, and ________ the demand for U.S. government bonds.
increasing; decreasing
According to the liquidity premium theory of the term structure, a steeply upward sloping yield curve indicates that short-term interest rates are expected to
rise in the future.
An inverted yield curve
slopes down.
An increase in the riskiness of corporate bonds will ________ the price of corporate bonds and ________ the price of Treasury bonds, everything else held constant.
reduce; increase
According to the liquidity premium theory of the term structure, a slightly upward sloping yield curve indicates that short-term interest rates are expected to
remain unchanged in the future.
When yield curves are downward sloping,
short-term interest rates are above long-term interest rates.
Everything else held constant, if the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds were eliminated, then
the interest rate on municipal bonds would exceed the rate on Treasury bonds.
As their relative riskiness ________, the expected return on corporate bonds ________ relative to the expected return on default-free bonds, everything else held constant.
increases; decreases
As default risk decreases, the expected return on corporate bonds ________, and the return becomes ________ uncertain, everything else held constant.
increases; less
If the yield curve is flat for short maturities and then slopes downward for longer maturities, the liquidity premium theory (assuming a mild preference for shorter-term bonds) indicates that the market is predicting.
a decline in short-term interest rates in the near future and an even steeper decline further out in the future.
According to the liquidity premium theory of the term structure
if yield curves are downward sloping, then short-term interest rates are expected to fall by so much that, even when the positive term premium is added, long-term rates fall below short-term rates.
During a "flight to quality"
the spread between Treasury bonds and Baa bonds increases.
Which of the following statements is true?
A liquid asset is one that can be quickly and cheaply converted into cash.
Which of the following statements are true?
Because the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds was of little benefit to bond holders when tax rates were low, they had higher interest rates than U.S. government bonds before World War II.
Which of the following statements is true?
Bonds issued by state and local governments are called municipal bonds
The collapse of the subprime mortgage market increased the spread between Baa and default-free U.S. Treasury bonds. This is due to
a flight to quality.
According to the liquidity premium theory of the term structure
the interest rate on long-term bonds will equal an average of short-term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-term bonds plus a term premium.
If the yield curve has a mild upward slope, the liquidity premium theory (assuming a mild preference for shorter-term bonds) indicates that the market is predicting
constant short-term interest rates in the near future and further out in the future.
During the Great Depression years 1930-1933 there was a very high rate of business failures and defaults, we would expect the risk premium for ________ bonds to be very high.
corporate Baa
According to the liquidity premium theory of the term structure, a downward sloping yield curve indicates that short-term interest rates are expected to
decline sharply in the future.
A decrease in the liquidity of corporate bonds will ________ the price of corporate bonds and ________ the yield of Treasury bonds, everything else held constant.
decrease; decrease
A decrease in the riskiness of corporate bonds will ________ the yield on corporate bonds and ________ the yield on Treasury securities, everything else held constant.
decrease; increase
Everything else held constant, if the federal government were to guarantee today that it will pay creditors if a corporation goes bankrupt in the future, the interest rate on corporate bonds will ________ and the interest rate on Treasury securities will ________.
decrease; increase
As default risk increases, the expected return on corporate bonds ________, and the return becomes ________ uncertain, everything else held constant.
decreases; more
Everything else held constant, a decrease in marginal tax rates would likely have the effect of ________ the demand for municipal bonds, and ________ the demand for U.S. government bonds.
decreasing; increasing
The risk that interest payments will not be made, or that the face value of a bond is not repaid when a bond matures is
default risk.
Bonds with no default risk are called
default-free bonds.
The ________ of the term structure of interest rates states that the interest rate on a long-term bond will equal the average of short-term interest rates that individuals expect to occur over the life of the long-term bond, and investors have no preference for short-term bonds relative to long-term bonds.
expectations theory
If bonds with different maturities are perfect substitutes, then the ________ on these bonds must be equal.
expected return
According to this theory of the term structure, bonds of different maturities are not substitutes for one another.
Segmented markets theory
If the expected path of 1-year interest rates over the next five years is 1 percent, 2 percent, 3 percent, 4 percent, and 5 percent, the expectations theory predicts that the bond with the highest interest rate today is the one with a maturity of
five years.
The Bush tax cut reduced the top income tax bracket from 39% to 35% over a ten-year period. Supply and demand analysis predicts the impact of this change was a ________ interest rate on municipal bonds and a ________ interest rate on Treasury bonds.
higher; lower
Economists' attempts to explain the term structure of interest rates
illustrate how economists modify theories to improve them when they are inconsistent with the empirical evidence.
If a corporation begins to suffer large losses, then the default risk on the corporate bond will
increase and the bond's return will become more uncertain, meaning the expected return on the corporate bond will fall.
Everything else held constant, abolishing all taxes will
increase the interest rate on municipal bonds.
If the probability of a bond default increases because corporations begin to suffer large losses, then the default risk on corporate bonds will ________ and the expected return on these bonds will ________, everything else held constant
increase; decrease
A(n) ________ in the riskiness of corporate bonds will ________ the price of corporate bonds and ________ the yield on corporate bonds, all else equal.
increase; decrease; increase
An increase in the liquidity of corporate bonds will ________ the price of corporate bonds and ________ the yield of Treasury bonds, everything else held constant.
increase; increase
A(n) ________ in the liquidity of corporate bonds will ________ the price of corporate bonds and ________ the yield on corporate bonds, all else equal.
increase; increase; decrease
If the possibility of a default increases because corporations begin to suffer losses, then the default risk on corporate bonds will ________, and the bonds' returns will become ________ uncertain, meaning that the expected return on these bonds will decrease, everything else held constant
increase; more
A decrease in the riskiness of corporate bonds will ________ the price of corporate bonds and ________ the price of Treasury bonds, everything else held constant.
increase; reduce
An increase in the riskiness of corporate bonds will ________ the yield on corporate bonds and ________ the yield on Treasury securities, everything else held constant.
increase; reduce
The collapse of the subprime mortgage market
increased the Baa-Aaa spread.
A decrease in the liquidity of corporate bonds, other things being equal, shifts the demand curve for corporate bonds to the ________ and the demand curve for Treasury bonds shifts to the ________.
left; right
Other things being equal, an increase in the default risk of corporate bonds shifts the demand curve for corporate bonds to the ________ and the demand curve for Treasury bonds to the ________.
left; right
When the Treasury bond market becomes more liquid, other things equal, the demand curve for corporate bonds shifts to the ________ and the demand curve for Treasury bonds shifts to the ________.
left; right
The ________ of the term structure states the following: the interest rate on a long-term bond will equal an average of short-term interest rates expected to occur over the life of the long-term bond plus a term premium that responds to supply and demand conditions for that bond.
liquidity premium theory
The expectations theory and the segmented markets theory do not explain the facts very well, but they provide the groundwork for the most widely accepted theory of the term structure of interest rates,
liquidity premium theory.
Three factors explain the risk structure of interest rates:
liquidity, default risk, and the income tax treatment of a security.
When yield curves are steeply upward sloping,
long-term interest rates are above short-term interest rates
If the expected path of 1-year interest rates over the next five years is 2 percent, 4 percent, 1 percent, 4 percent, and 3 percent, the expectations theory predicts that the bond with the lowest interest rate today is the one with a maturity of
one year.
Other things being equal, a decrease in the default risk of corporate bonds shifts the demand curve for corporate bonds to the ________ and the demand curve for Treasury bonds to the ________.
right; left
When the Treasury bond market becomes less liquid, other things equal, the demand curve for corporate bonds shifts to the ________ and the demand curve for Treasury bonds shifts to the ________.
right; left
The steeply upward sloping yield curve in the figure above indicates that
short-term interest rates are expected to rise in the future.
Differences in ________ explain why interest rates on Treasury securities are not all the same.
time to maturity
