Final Exam - Environment and People
Milankovitch cycles and "Hockey Stick" graph
Earth has an elliptical orbit, along with a tilt, that helps to influence how much ice can form at one pole or the other - the increase in ice operates as a positive feedback by further reflecting solar energy back off of the surface (melting glaciers and warming oceans release CO2, which amplifies warming) - other factors include eccentricity (shape of the Earth's orbit - circle to elliptical), precession (changing direction of the Earth), and the tilt of the Earth (which ranges from 21.5 degrees to 24.5 degrees) - "Hockey Stick" graph: from NASA that shows how the Milankovitch Cycles largely align with the past ice ages (when CO2 levels have been low) - at the start of the Industrial Revolution, the graph from then on looks like a hockey stick because CO2 emissions skyrocketed over a short period - Milankovitch cycles are cycles of the Earth's orbit since it is an elliptical shape (this is what makes the differences from ice ages to non-glacial periods)
ruling out alternative causes of global warming
Earth's orbit, the Sun's energy, volcanoes, etc. - these things do not correspond with recent increases in global average temperatures
ultraviolet radiation (UV)
a type of electromagnetic wave that is between visible light and X-rays in the electromagnetic spectrum - can cause skin cancer and is largely absorbed by ozone (O3)
adaptation
adjust to new, warmer world, new conditions
geoengineering
altering how much solar energy hits Earth's surface (example: imitating the process of volcanoes by adding sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space)
types of indirect and direct consequences of warmer planet (agriculture)
climate changes for midwestern agriculture: - warmer night-time temperatures are reducing corn yields - to have more days over 86 degrees Fahrenheit, this makes it much harder on livestock - photosynthesis declines above 95 degrees Fahrenheit for corn - the Indiana frost-free season is predicted to start one month earlier by 2050 - takes away quality harvesting time - precipitation patterns: rain is less frequent, but heavier events, longer dry spells in between rainfalls, similar annual totals, but more of it developed in the springtime
what causes diurnal and seasonal changes in weather
diurnal = daily, therefore, the position of the Sun has to do with the seasons and Earth's tilt also affects this
why GHGs absorb heat
has to do with how tightly the atoms are bonded together as molecules - if bonded tightly (Nitrogen (N2) and Oxygen (O2)), then the heat energy as photons does not cause the bond to vibrate, keeps on going - if more looser bonds (Water Vapor (H2O), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), and Methane (CH4)), then the photon interacts with these molecules, causing them to vibrate - the molecule eventually releases the photon (and stops vibrating) which gets redirected - some heat energy heads back to Earth, some heat energy continues onto outer space in a slightly different direction
infrared (heat) radiation
heat, plays a crucial role in heating up the Earth - longer wavelengths have more difficulty escaping back into outer space because they are more likely to be absorbed by certain atmospheric molecules (like GHGs) - usually hits something and bounces back to the surface
albedo
how much solar energy is reflected back into the atmosphere (calculated as a ratio from 0-1, low to high) - high albedo = something is highly reflective (example: snow) - low albedo = something that is not that reflective (examples: soil, water, vegetation) - Earth's albedo is 30%, which means that 30% of sunlight is reflected back into space - "let's just paint everything white" - as high albedo objects disappear, more light energy will be converted into heat, warmer global temperatures, which will melt glaciers
climate
long-term (decades, centuries) trends in average temperatures and precipitation
types of indirect and direct consequences of warmer planet (sea level rise)
new projections estimate 150 million people worldwide live on land that will be below high tides by 2050
goal of 2 degrees Celsius
per the Paris climate accords, 2 degrees Celsius of warming is the goal
mitigation
prevent future GHG emissions
carbon dioxide removal
removing and storing the GHGs that are already in the atmosphere (example: carbon sequestration) [could also be mitigation]
weather
short-term (days, weeks) temperature fluctuations and precipitation amounts
2 systems in the brain
the emotional and rational brain - emotional: instinct, automatic thinking, snap judgements, intuitive thinking, emotional, much more dominant - going along with emotional, we tend to dislike losing things more than we prefer gaining something that's potentially better, this part of the brain prefers shortcuts which are useful for familiar situations and dangers - rational: making calculations, deliberating, debating (like a rider), slow analysis
visible light radiation
the wavelengths that are visible to most human eyes, what we experience and typically associate the Sun's energy with
electromagnetic spectrum
when we think about the energy from the Sun, we typically only think of visible light, but this is not the complete picture (there is a large spectrum of types of waves) - infrared light (heat) plays a crucial role in heating up the Earth and is likely absorbed by GHGs - ultraviolet light is largely absorbed by ozone - also x-rays and radio waves
popularity of policies targeting individuals vs businesses
- 4/5 Americans are against the US taxing them for electricity - more popular for people to support the government charges towards companies for every ton of GHGs they emit - most people support the Paris Agreement and Clean Power Plan - most people favor hearing a politician speak about a green statement - businesses > individuals
carbon budget and countdown for different temperature outcomes
- 487 billion tons of carbon are left in our carbon budget - humanity is currently using 40 billion tons of carbon per year - we are currently speeding towards a "brick wall" of carbon that needs to be kept in the ground - models of our carbon budget provide a range of 0-15 years to stay under 1.5 degrees Celsius - we need to decarbonize as fast as possible
US greenhouse gas emissions by sector
- 80% CO2, 10% methane, 7% nitrous oxide, 3% fluorinated gasses - By economic sector: 29% transportation, 25% electricity, 23% industry, 10% agriculture, 7% commercial, 6% residential - know that transportation is a large one
per capita, historical, and current national GHG emissions
- China is the largest producer of CO2 and are responsible for 13% of all emissions over time - US leads in per capita (per person) and total CO2 emissions - Cumulative emissions: US (25%), EU 28 (22%), China (13%), Russia (7%), Japan (4%), India (3%), Rest of the world (26%) - right now, we're on track for 3 degrees warming - countries are largely behind on the progress that needs to be made and the 4 largest players are not on track
historical climatic ranges of CO2
- Eocene (30 million years ago): atmospheric CO2 was 700 ppm (there were palm trees in the Arctic) - Last ice age (26,000 years ago): atmospheric CO2 was 180 ppm (temperature was an average of 4 degrees cooler, glaciers came all the way down to Indianapolis) - our planet has been around for a long time under different climate regimes
support for climate based on political party affiliation
- Green Tea movement (in the US) is a coalition of the Tea Party (which supports energy independence) and the Green Party (which supports environmentalism) works for renewable energy
PAIN acronym and its importance
- PAIN (probably chose this acronym since it grabs people's attention) - (P)ersonal: ability to identify friends and enemies, typically people like a story that has personal meaning; something abstract seems distant - (A)brupt: we are sensitive to sudden changes, but don't notice or care as much about slow-moving threats, danger is sudden which grabs our attention and immediacy - (I)mmoral: we respond to things that we find inappropriate or unfair, it is important to consider the moral implications of any given action - (N)ow: we mainly focus on what's happening in the present and discount the future, somewhat ironic since we are often encouraged to try to live in the present - PAIN triggers aren't a good fit for climate change, but taps into the emotional part of people's brains - Marshall argues that these points do not hit people very well
carbon markets
- a market that is created from the trading of carbon emission allowances to encourage or help countries and companies to limit their carbon dioxide emissions - prices are based on supply and demand - buyers are mainly large companies that are looking to reduce or zero out their GHGs - sellers are farmers, ranchers, private forest landowners
carbon pricing
- a policy that charges emitters of the waste products that cause climate change for the cost of their pollution, either by a monetary tax on the volume of emissions or the revocation of permits to operate - useful cross-cutting policy for specific industries where this creates a direct change in prices and make low-carbon options more competitive - carbon pricing is not politically neutral, despite the flexibility of it - setting the right price is the challenge - carbon pricing is neither sufficient nor politically viable
positive feedbacks
- amplifying effects where there may be rapid changes - more of that same thing is going to happen - a change in one part may spread and then amplify its impacts - as high albedo objects (like glaciers) disappear, more light energy will be converted into heat, warmer global temperatures, which further melt glaciers (this is a positive feedback mechanism) - increased warming increases the risk that we surpass thresholds that make positive feedbacks more likely - getting to be carbon neutral too late won't matter if these positive feedbacks lead to self-sustained warming that doesn't depend on additional GHGs from our economies - positive feedbacks can be counterbalanced by negative feedbacks
Griffith's argument for electrification, including opportunities and challenges
- basic idea is that we want to electrify everything so that we can switch away from fossil fuels and switch the source of electricity generation to be focused mainly on renewable energy (wind, solar) instead of nonrenewable energy (coal, natural gas)
support for climate policies
- basic notion that people are typically accepting of climate change policies - climate policy does not have to necessarily mean doing everything possible, everywhere possible, but at least making a change in some aspects
signaling group membership
- being for or against climate change signals our identity and membership - called virtue signaling because our reputations are on the line - it is more important to know what your group thinks rather than what the actual evidence might be - there is strength and safety in number
types of bias and why biases matter
- bias: we are giving too much or too little weight to some types of evidence that influences our perceptions or conclusions - confirmation bias (motivated reasoning): only looking at sources that are on your own opinion's side or point of view - availability bias: anchored to what you know - anchoring bias: relying heavily on the first piece of evidence that you see - loss aversion: to dislike losing an object more than to like gaining that same object - present bias: giving more importance to short-term gains rather than ones in the future
types of policies that can reduce GHG emissions
- carbon intensity of electricity generation (and electricity demand by the industry) - non-electricity industry emissions (cement, iron, etc.) - transportation emissions - land use (especially deforestation)
political realities
- carbon pricing is not politically neutral - benefits from carbon pricing are widely dispersed which undermines supportive coalition building - Washington state has failed to pass a carbon cap-and-trade bill 3 times - Green Party focuses on environmentalism, working for renewable energy - must focus on building winning coalitions - need to find support where the gains outweigh the losses - support clean energy industries so that they can lobby and build support
types of indirect and direct consequences of warmer planet (disease vectors)
- diseases and bacteria are trapped in glaciers, which could be released into the air as melting occurs - the more warmer spots there are, the greater the disease spread time period is - increasing year-round disease
injunctive norms
- expected behavior in a given place, socially accepted or unaccepted behavior - not written rules, expected behavior in a given place and time, potential punishment for non-conformance, compliance is not necessarily driven by support for the norm, but for fear of being punished - when someone does not follow this, the worts consequence is someone will stop being your friend, someone will give you weird looks, or maybe violence
differences between climate skeptics and deniers
- fine to be a skeptic, but when the stakes are high, ignoring or disagreeing with the experts is very risky - deniers: dedicated a team to analyzing climate change and concluded it was human-driven, but then findings were buried and now spends money advertising misinformation campaigns
types of indirect and direct consequences of warmer planet (heat stress)
- high temperatures with high humidity overwhelms our ability to self-cool through sweating - land near the equator could be too hot for humans to survive - Russia suffered 11,000 fatalities from the 2010 heatwave (reached 104 degrees Fahrenheit) - urban heat island effect: more absorption and retention of infrared radiation, fewer cooling mechanisms, risks are unequal - higher for the elderly people and people without AC
why individual behaviors matter to climate change
- household choices contribute to 72% of carbon emissions - individual behavior tends to be neglected in climate change models, but this might be because it is much harder to predict than technology, for example - individuals can change their driving levels, diet (meat consumption), housing (energy and electricity) - per-person goal: 2.5 tons of CO2 equivalents by 2030 and 0.7 tons of CO2 equivalents by 2050 to hit the 1.5 degrees Celsius target
types of indirect and direct consequences of warmer planet (economic harms)
- inaction is costly - climate change is not just a health or environmental problem - losses from deaths due to heatwaves - labor losses from extreme temperatures, especially for outdoor sectors - physical damages to coastal property with an increase in precipitation or types of storms
role of innovation and phase outs in sustainable transitions
- innovations are needed to provide alternative solutions - policies are needed to disrupt the status quo - phase outs are needed to eliminate problematic technologies that may otherwise resist transitions - it is hard to switch something over
cap and trade
- mechanism to reduce the emission of pollutants by establishing a market for emission permits - establishes a pollution limit (for everyone or a specific group) that allows supply and demand - establish prices where permit holders can buy whatever amounts are available - provides flexibility across sectors to select approaches that are the best fit for their situations
how is climate change a fairness (or justice) issue
- not everyone is contributing equally to warming temperatures, therefore should not be equal distribution of how people should help to combat it - how to equally divide the remaining carbon budget - the countries that contribute the most to climate change are the ones that feel the least effects, and the countries that contribute the least are the ones that feel the effects the most - climate-driven migration is already happening - sea-level rise is the biggest cause, extreme heat, water trees, economic consequences - all causes for migration to different parts of land - may lead to overcrowding eventually
types of behavior change techniques
- nudge: change the default option - prompt: draw attention to information - justification: appeal to values through more explicit tradeoffs - instruction: provide how-to guidance to make changes - feedback: provide information on outcomes of behavior - goal: establish target to focus attention on potential accomplishments - social modeling: have influential people model desired behavior - cognitive dissonance: emphasize the difference between values and actions - commitment: encourage and allow people to make public pledge of specific actions - reward: financial, in-kind, or social incentives for changing behavior - competition: promote status-based benefits (bragging rights)
identity and group membership
- our behavior often reflects our perceptions of what other people think is acceptable or unacceptable behavior - we care about some people's opinions more than others - this connects to our identity - our sense of belonging to various groups, as well as how we want to see ourselves and what gives us meaning and motivation - being for or against climate change signals our identity and membership - groups we are a part of is a part of our identity
role of performance standards, economic signals, and support for research and development
- performance standards: (examples: fuel economy for cars, electricity use for business) sets targets that firms need to meet by a specified time, need to keep adjusting the number to get the right benefits - economic signals: (examples: carbon tax/pricing, clean energy rebates, reduce regulatory costs) - support for research and development: overcome learning curves, scaling up of deployment
climate migration
- potentially 1 billion refugees by 2050, according to the UN - might be massive border crossing - most migration will most likely be internally within countries - calling people refugees can sound very loaded (lots of politics surrounding it)
importance of framing the issue
- problem framing matters because of our core values (role of government), our group loyalties (if we're helping those we care about), our curiosity (if we need to worry), our perceptions of credibility (if the science or the messenger are trustworthy) - fear appeals and public shaming have been core parts of public messages on the road to polarization
facts vs. feelings
- providing more facts to overcome information deficits is often ineffective - need to build more deliberative scientific literacy and find ways to build broader engagement that also includes emotion - fake news and post truth are misleading because there has always been a point of time where everyone agreed on the facts - we anchor our attention to certain details rather than just looking at the facts
opower case study
- report that people receive that compare your personal energy usage with your neighbors - competition, nudge, and prompt are all involved - very competitive, which makes people more motivated to be on top and above their neighbors - you want to fit in with the social norms of everyone around you - anticipation of peer pressure of not fitting in with anyone around you
social pressure and political polarization
- social pressure: effective because people do not want to be outside the norm, people care about their own reputation in a community, and people want to be able to do the right thing if it benefits others - political polarization: climate change is multivalent since so many people have differing views, building a political coalition requires attention to gains and losses and designing policies to generate gains, need a mix of policies, need to find support where the gains outweigh the losses
types of indirect and direct consequences of warmer planet (biodiversity)
- species migration and adaptation is constrained dramatically by climate change which are existing threats to biodiversity - habitat loss and fragmentation limits movement and ability to find necessary resources - substantial changes in temperature and precipitation to those existing organisms challenges living conditions - evolution is premised on slow adaptation through natural selection - climate change is so rapid in comparison that it seems to overwhelm species' fitness - theory: all past mass extinctions were caused by rapid climate change
social conventions
- stable, descriptive norms that function as coordination mechanisms - expectations of compliance are mutual - non-compliance can hurt the individual failing to comply, not other people
climate change as a multivalent problem
- there is a lot of ambiguity surrounding the issue and it is subject to a lot of different interpretations - provides us with no defining qualities that would give it a clear identity (no single cause, solution, deadlines, or enemy) - there is a lot of ambiguity in the cause and effect of climate change and whether we need to care, responsibility for the causes, effectiveness of interventions - many people disagree and have so many different opinions
tipping points
- time pressures where the environment can no longer recover from the change - can lead to irreversible impacts on our Earth - examples: melting ice sheets and glaciers leading to sea level rise, ocean acidification, global warming, deforestation - increased warming increases the risk that we surpass thresholds that make positive feedbacks more likely
descriptive norms
- typical, regular, common behavior in a given place in time, no expectation of punishment for non-conformance - common behavior that has no expected repercussions
misinterpretations and misunderstandings
- we are likely to do this - need to avoid picking our favorite evidence - need to also look at evidence that is challenging to ours - need to make sure our reasoning is logical - we need to recognize the limitations - to get others to see their mistakes, we must take their views seriously and ask for what evidence they consider valuable and see what sources they trust
how facts become "polluted" with social meaning
- we need to understand how people's social identity has such a hold over their behaviors and views - our brains tend to respond with emotion first and facts second
pluralistic ignorance
- you just try to fit in with the norm - operating around the norms of a group without actually fact-checking the evidence that they are supporting - this is why unpopular social norms persist - we don't ask about people's norms, so people's actual opinions are unknown
heat-trapping blanket (be able to describe the process)
1. visible light from the Sun enters the atmosphere 2. this light is converted into infrared radiation (which is heat), depending on the amount of surface albedo present 3. the surface radiates this heat into the atmosphere 4. more GHGs means more of this heat energy can be trapped in the atmosphere, since it came as visible light and leaves as infrared radiation (heat) 5. GHGs absorb and re-radiate some heat back to the surface (while the remainder of it is radiated into outer space)
