FINAL EXAM - MNGT 425

EVENTS that CHANGED the Natty Gas Industry** (PART #2)

- Any written document between Arkab & Middle East is NOT iron-clad since Middle East is volatile & may no be executable --> Someone cuts off some ones head & shit goes south --> CVX & XOM are willing to take a risk on this when they normally don't... --> Sustainability = Continue & Sustain itself ----> 2nd Environmentally conscious --> keep mother earth @ sundown how we found her @ sun up... What things should a Strategic Plan capture in the Plan? - locate & source / extract - Sustainability - Consumer base --> Who wants it? - ROI - Security (FUNDEMENTAL) --> hire own security

Who was ALEXANDER BELL? How does this tie into the BLACK SWAN directive? How does this pertain to strategy? (3 things)

- Prolific inventor who... INVENTED THE TELEPHONE - Nobody could have predicted the advent of the TELEPHONE AND MODERN TELECOMMUNICATIONS - If someone had a business strategy during the 1800's and the Telephone came along it would drastically alter how business is done, specifically how fast it things are done.

1. Who said this quote? (CONDENSED VERSION) "Combine business, science, & the humanities." 2. Humanities deals with the essence of WHAT? 3. What central concept does this quote extenuate that we have delved heavily into within this course?

1. STEVE JOBS 2. PEOPLE 3. At the CORE of Business is PEOPLE. --> (If you understand the Individuals you understand the Business.)

ALEXANDER Bell's work on the TELEPHONE began in the ____s when he was experimenting with transmitting sound over wires. On March 10, 1876, he successfully transmitted the first intelligible telephone message to his assistant, Thomas Watson, saying, "Mr. Watson, come here, I want to see you." This groundbreaking invention revolutionized communication and played a crucial role in the development of modern telecommunications.

1870s;

EVENTS that CHANGED the Natty Gas Industry** (PART #1)

2/24/2022: Russia invades the Ukraine --> What happened after is that the western world [England, Poland, & Others] put sanctions (no banking, no products, limitations, seized the ability to sell methane gas to the western world) Sanctioned Russia. - A day before Feb. 24th: -- Oil and natural gas was flowing south of Russia to Ukraine, from the Ukraine to Poland, and then from Poland it goes off to all locations. - A 2nd way to get natural gas ---> Starts in a port in Russia, Vyborg, from there it passes into the Baltic Sea (underwater) ---> The NORD STREAM 2 laid down by the Russians into the German port (Greifswald - Sassnitz port) - Germans stop putting money into the NORD STREAM - Russia no longer is to ship natural gas to the western world, no longer able to pass gas into Germany thought the NORD STREAM PIPELINE - Capitalism is at play here, someone in the world WILL FILL that NATTY GAS S/D dislocation: ALGERIA - MATLE: Morocco, Algeria, Tasmania, Lybia, and Egypt - ALGERIA: 4th largest - ALGERIA's size is the same mass as California, 45M people in Algeria, about the population of California - US GDP 2023 = 26T / 334 million pop. = $78,510 per capita - Algeria GDP per Capita = $3,000 - Port city of Tangier -- Where all the pirates come from. - HASI R'MELL******* = a town in Algeria located near the 18th largest gas field worldwide.********* - Behind every innovation & tech. is PEOPLE -- PEOPLE are the ones getting natural gas. - Algeria is a member of OPEC - Recent negotiations in Algeria ---> Tangiers on the COASTLINE ---> Exxon in Houston = CEO Darren Wood. ---> Chevron in California = Mike Wirth ---> ENI in Italy = Claudio Descalzi ---> Negotiations are not ironclad, the middle east is very volatile ---> The point is that a written document with our guys (CVX Mike Wirth & XOM: Darren Wood) and Arkab may not be binding due to the Middle East's volatility. - Algeria is a member of OPEC --> Negotiations continue - ARKAB -- Needs to think of Gov't interests as ENI, XOM, & CVX --> Here comes ENI (ranked 5 or 6 in world). **-ENI CEO = Claudio Desalzi - Any written document between Arkab & Middle East is NOT iron-clad since Middle East is volatile & may no be executable --> Someone cuts off some ones he

Define PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION:***

A mathematical function describing the likelihood of different outcomes or values occurring in a random experiment or a random variable. It provides a systematic way of assigning probabilities to various possible outcomes, enabling us to quantify and analyze uncertainty.

#3 GOOD BLACK SWAN EX: Velcro - GDM

GEORGE DE MESTRAL got the idea for VELCRO® from cockleburs (SPIKEY FLOWER) caught in his clothes and his dog's fur. During a walk in the woods in 1948, Swiss engineer and outdoorsman de Mestral caught hundreds of burrs in his clothes and his dog's fur. He wondered how they attached themselves so tenaciously. (https://invention.si.edu/george-de-mestral-velcro-inventor#:~:text=George%20De%20Mestral%20got%20the,they%20attached%20themselves%20so%20tenaciously.) De Mestral observed the burrs under a microscope. He saw that each one was covered with hooks that looked like a monster's mouthful of spiked fangs. These hooks grabbed onto anything that had a loop--clothing fiber, animal fur, or human hair. The common burr was a natural "hook and loop fastener." De Mestral realized he could create a fabric fastener that acted like the burrs, and so the idea of Velcro® was born.

What is the core purpose of the book the BLACK SWAN?

How to deal w/ unpredictable, uncertain & deep impact events from an INVESTMENT perspective.ikwoe

#1 GOOD BLACK SWAN EX: 3M***** -- Post it note 1. EX. 40 years ago --> Adhesive Company Q? for a point***

One Sunday in 1974, Art Fry, a new-products developer at 3M, was singing in his church choir. "I found that the little piece of paper I used to mark the music had fallen out, making me fumble about trying to find the right page." "This was followed by a dull sermon. My mind was wandering back to the music problem when I had one of those 'flashes of insight.' Eureka! By using a RECENTLY INVENTED ADHESIVE, I could make a bookmark that could be stuck on, and removed, without damaging the book." (https://invention.si.edu/art-fry-post-it-note-inventor#:~:text=One%20Sunday%20in%201974%2C%20Art,followed%20by%20a%20dull%20sermon.)

Where are A-PLAYERS found on a NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CURVE?

Past 3 sigma's in the 99.7 Percentile

What makes up the acronym "P.E.S.T.E.L." ? "Today's news is tomorrow's strategy"

Politics Economy Society Technology Environment Law

6/20/2023 -- Directive #7: Exxon-Chevron-ENI Algerian LNG Strategies - Go through each point from the LECTURE and the extra RESEARCH you did for all 16 points

Read the material that appears in the June 3 WSJ page B1. Be able to explain why the above Strategies are very much Strategic. We will get to this June 20. Build your Briefing Notes. Piece together the puzzle pieces below to tell a coherent story. Note: Five Hours of research work minimum is required here or you will fail the assignment. list the points:.... Exxon Algerian LNG Strategies PUZZLE PIECES: 1. Arkab, Mohammad 2. Aphrodite Gas Project 3. Brazil Bust 4. Buybacks and Dividends 5 CH4 6. Cypress 7. ENI $8b Libya deal 8. Hassi R'Mel 9. LNG & EVs 10. Map 11. Nord Stream 2 12. ROI 13. Shale Gas 14. Sonatrach 15. Mike Wirth 16. Darren Woods

This is the actual quote for "Combine business, science, & the humanities" by Steve Jobs. He said this in a rare reflective moment, after the launch of the iPad, mentioning Apple's DNA. He said: "_________ (Business) alone is NOT enough. It's _________ (Business) married with the _______ ARTS (Science), married with the ___________, that yields the results that makes our hearts sing. Nowwhere is that more true than in these post-PC devices...that need to be even easier to use than a PC, that need to be even more intuitive that a PC; and where the software and the hardware and the applications need to intertwine in an even more seamless way than they do on a PC. We think we are on the right track with this. We think we have the right architecture not just in silicon but in the ORGANIZATION to build these kinds of products." (AT THE CORE OF BUSINESS IS PEOPLE) https://hbr.org/2011/08/steve-jobss-ultimate-lesson-fo

Technology; technology; LIBERAL ARTS; HUMANITIES https://hbr.org/2011/08/steve-jobss-ultimate-lesson-fo "Jobs's greatest creation isn't any Apple product. It is Apple itself." -- jOHN gRUBER - Built to Last = Visionary If indeed he has built Apple sufficiently well to last then he has built an admirable process and not just a product. But this would not be a unique achievement. There have been other companies which preserved their founders' cultural imprints, at least for significant periods beyond their departure. Consider that Disney, Ford and even HP and IBM remained successful for many years after the departure of their founders operating much the same way. They were infused with an indelible culture and preserved it for some time. (PRESERVE THE CORE STIMULATE THE REST) But a leader should aspire to do more. A leader should claim to have left a legacy not just on their company but on all companies. (APPLE IS STEVE JOBS LIFE'S WORK, HIS MONA LISA) Is it not more worthy to have changed civilization than the fortunes of a few? I believe that Steve Jobs has actually sought just that. He put it as "making a ding in the universe." This can be interpreted as developing products that "change everything". But if the thing that Steve Jobs should be most PROUD of is the creation of Apple Inc. then how exactly could an Apple Inc. benefit the world? This is where Jobs' quote above strikes me as valuable. The lesson the world should take from Apple is that a company needs to become multi-dimensional. It needs to mix the core business with the disruptive innovation. It needs to combine the intellectual with the artistic. It needs to maintain within it the rational and the lunatic. (AND AND AND = PARADOX)

Read this...

**700 AD - Islam was born into the Northeast ---- Encountered backlash from the Christian world (centered in Italy, France, Germany) ---- Christian warriors (crusaders) vs the army of Islam, got there by sea **Circa 1270 - King Richard gathers thousands of loyalists ---- From England (River Teme) to the Atlantic Ocean, past Portugal, through Mediterranean Sea, to Greece/Macedonia/Turkey ---- Crusaders would stop off at Cyprus to restock and reload, and then went on to fight the great Muslim warriors (Israel) ---- Salah al-Din (sultan of Egypt and Israel) vs. King Richard ---- Movie featuring Johnny Depp & Orlando Bloom: Kingdom of Heaven ---- Salah al-Din came from Syria, captured Richard in battle, the British paid a ton of silver (10K PIECES) to free King Richard

1911: Frederick Taylor, father of "scientific management" (7 points)

- 1911: Frederick Taylor, fathered the concept of "scientific management", published in his book "The Principles of Scientific Management" in 1911. - This was around the beginning of industrialization. - @ the beginning of industrialization we were mainly farmers and had primitive tech. - FREDERICK TAYLOR was hired by companies (like AT&T, GM, Bethlehem Steel, Ford, etc) to consult them in efficient work methods. - FREDERICK realized that you need a labor force in order to produce more goods such as cars and radios. Workers he had wer UNEDUCATED - FREDERICK has a labor force on the (FORD) assembly line (tightly regimented), Every job was identified & timing of every detail that happened throughout production was accounted for with a stopwatch. Every moment & rotation & task was dotted down to the wire... ---> "They are not supposed to think" -- Frederick Taylor -- harsh quote but is how companies viewed employees at the time (correlates to THEORY X)

JIM COLLINS: ***

- Author of Good to Great & Built to Last - Great contributor to the world of HR & MNGT. - There are 2 HR points to make about JIM COLLINS: 1. BUS THEORY = "Get the right people on [the BUS], the wrong people off [the BUS], & everyone in the right seat." 2. "First ask who, not what."

AD ON TOYOTA EV = Chat GPT will remove entry level jobs. EXAMPLE: Create a 30 second ad for a car commercial --> iMAGINE YOUR AN AD AGENCY --> Paint a pic of 30 sec commercial (4 points)

- Class describes a terrible ad - Road trip, in desert, going fast, can't see driver, but they're with someone lol, go into mountains to show it can go on multiple terrains, has shit mounted on top even though we had a scene that showed off the trunk space lol - CHATGPT can create Ads in 30 seconds that are 10x better then what a group of college educated people can do in 10 minutes. - This lecture is important from a strategy level, based on a personal basis because that is what we have to do, these are opportunities to be creative and innovative because of the massive changes coming, even modern cars have electronic processors.

THIS CASE IS A SOURCE OF ENERGY*** (15 points)

- Directive #7 encompasses the Strategies of 3 oil companies: 1. Exxon 2. Chevron 3. ENI - There are GIFTS ON EARTH - NATURAL GAS IS ONE OF THEM ----- Blue flame is artificial actually to stop us from asphyxiating ----- Keeps heaters working (during winter), stoves, electricity, water hot, homes light at night, etc... - Natural Gas is found in the same reserves as oil... - ORIGIN OF FOSSIL FUELS (i.e. Natty) --> Dead Dinosaurs ----> Meteor (kills them) ----> Another Dino/animal/nature kills it ----> Grass (gets mixed in w/ it) ----> lots of Dirt over millions of years buries it & puts lots of PRESSURE on it.... ----> Over time there is energy captured in these dead animals (i.e. coal, oil, natty gas, etc...)

GREENHOUSE EFFECT**

- EX. Orchids in the Greenhouse -- If you want to raise Orchids, and you live in a place with limited sunlight, then you build yourself a greenhouse --> You build it with glass walls and ceilings. --> Heat from the sunshine goes through the glass and it can't escape and it becomes very hot but it provides a place where you can grow flowers, etc. - When you burn natural gas emissions in the form of CO2 are released, the molecules lock with each other and covers the whole earth, creating a hot house: GLOBAL WARMING - When you burn gas (methane), it is much cleaner over coal, which is why it is attractive --> Coal (1000 carbon atom emission = BAD)

How many countries does: - Exxon Mobil - 200+ - Coca Cola - Walmart - Costco - Major Banks Operate in?

- Exxon Mobil - 60+ = prof said 120 which is different than website - Coca Cola - 200+ = prof said 150 which is different than website - Walmart - 20+ - Costco - 13+ - Major Banks - 160+

(D-9 BLACK SWAN) DEFINE Avoidance Strategies:

- GET THE RIGHT PEOPLE IN THE RIGHT SEATS. - DO NOT OVERLEVERAGE - HAVE ADEQUATE INSURANCE - AND FOCUS OBSESS ABOUT YOUR CUSTOMERS (I.E. JEFF BEZZOS) - DELIGATE TASKES AND VERIFY IF THEY ARE GETTING DONE TO THE STANDARDS VALUES AND IDEOLOGY OF THE ORGANIZATION.

Ram Charan*************

- Indian Author - Wrote "The Talent Masters" - He thought that ... "Talent is all there is." - Talent = raw / natural ability - Professor said this is Ipso-Facto (not fully right) - Talent is NECESSARY but NOT SUFFICIENT. Necessary but need something more.***

What play does this quote appear in? "As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods; They kill us for their sport." What does it mean?

- Shakespeare's KING LEAR*** Gloucester speaks these words as he wanders on the heath after being blinded by Cornwall and Regan (4.1.37-38). They reflect the profound despair that grips him and drives him to desire his own death. More important, they emphasize one of the play's CHEIF THEMES—namely, the Q? of whether there is JUSTICE in the UNIVERSE. (ULTIMATE BLACK SWAN IS DEATH) Gloucester's philosophical musing here offers an outlook of stark despair: he suggests that there is NO ORDER—or at least no good order—IN the UNIVERSE, and that man is incapable of imposing his own moral ideas upon the harsh and inflexible laws of the world. Instead of divine justice, there is only the "SPORT" of vicious, inscrutable gods, who reward cruelty and delight in suffering. In many ways, the events of the play bear out Gloucester's understanding of the world, as the good die along with the wicked, and NO REASON IS OFFERED for the unbearable suffering that permeates the play.

- Frederick ("Scientific Mngt") and McGregor's ("Theory X & Y") work blends in 2010... - YEAR 2010: Steve Jobs comes up with an HR strategy: Describe it!!! (

- Steve Jobs & Steve Wozniak create APPLE but struggle in the late 80's, Jobs is FIRED by the B.O.D. - Steve Jobs starts PIXAR, sells it for 7.4B to Disney (CEO Igar) bought for 10 million 20 years earlier. - APPLES headquarters, APPLE PARK in Cupertino, California breaks ground in 2013 and finishes by 2017. -******* STEVE JOBS says lets fill it with nothing but A-PLAYERS for everything, sound engineers, R&D, computer engineers, retail managers, maintenance, even landscapers. - If you FILL a COMPANY W/ A-PLAYERS you CAN'T LOSE*** - 3 sigma to the right of the curve are where A-PLAYERS lie (99.7 Percentile) - A-PLAYERS are the best of the best - Steve Jobs stole ANGELA AHRENDTS from BURBERRY (she was the head of Burberry), to head up Apples' DESIGN UNIT. - There is a LIST OF CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS from book written by biographer WALTER ISSACSON

1940'S 1950'S and 1960's: Theory X and Theory Y: (11 points)

- Time passes (following industrialization), and machines become more complex and demanding in the 40's and 50's - DOUGLAS MCGREGOR with his seminal work "The Human Side of Enterprise" published in 1960 introduced these two concepts (Theory X & Y). **THEORY X assumptions on works in the 1960's: - Looks like Taylors THEORY X Assumption: 1. Workforce DISLIKEs work, 2. Little to No ambition (desire to rise above current level), 3. Avoid all current responsibilities. ***THEORY Y - Theory Y is the reversal of Theory X. - Theory X doesn't capture everything = no longer accurate pertaining to assumptions on workers, since there is now new tech. and the world has changed. - "Deep scientific thinking at the core of our challenges." -- DOUGLAS MCGREGOR ***THEORY Y assumptions on workers in the 1960's: 1. They like work (i.e. wake up early) 2. INTERNALLY MOTIVATED (i.e. view as a challenge) 3. Work to better themselves without a direct reward in return.

Amazon EXAMPLE of First Mover Advantage (CHATGPT) (pt 2)

-scape. While other companies have entered the online retail space since Amazon's inception, the company's early start and continuous innovation have allowed it to maintain its dominant position and stay ahead of the competition. Amazon's success serves as a prime example of how the First Mover Advantage can be leveraged to establish market leadership and create a lasting impact in an industry.

Who is MALCOLM GLADWELL? 9 (7+3 SUB POINTS)

1. British born 2. Grew up in Canada (Mother had opportunity to teach in Canada so they moved). 3. Famous Sociologist, speaker, and writer. 4. FAMOUS FOR RESEARCH AS A SOCIOLOGIST. 5. Writing is famous for it's blend of storytelling and social science to explore various aspects of human behavior and decision-making. 6. Began his career at Washington Post. Eventually joined the New Yorker in 1996 where he gained most of his fame through his articles he wrote their which served at the foundation for many of his books. 7. FAMOUS BOOKS WRITTEN: a. "The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference" (2000) - examines the factors that contribute to social epidemics and how small changes can lead to significant effects b. "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking" (2005) - explores the role of intuitive thinking and snap judgments in decision-making. c. "Outliers: The Story of Success" (2008) - examines the factors that contribute to high levels of achievement and success

What are the 8 steps of the STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN MODEL? (S.G.S.A.B.E.R.A) (Sara Goes Skipping Around Behind Edna & Rida's Apartment) These steps must be done if you want to make your strategy a reality sTRATEGY is a living entity that goes through changes at each one of these steps.

1. SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS:--> The kickoff, you need to know what the INTERNAL and EXTERNAL situation is, because if you have it wrong, you are headed the wrong way. 2. Big, Hairy, Audacious GOALs (B-HAG's): 3. STRATEGY:--> HW^4R = How, Who, What, Where, When, and Resources 4. AUTHORIZATION:--> Typically a notebook full of text for the strategic plan, needs to go through the CEO and B.O.D, a final vote is needed to proceed 5. BUY IN:--> You need buy in from everyone 6. EXECUTION (of the plan):--> Immediately the day after you execute the plan. 7. REVIEW: 8. ADAPT:--> It is now a live, working entity that goes through each individual steps.

9 Gladwell claims there are 3 factors to becoming an OUTLIER. WHAT ARE THEY?

1. TALENT* --> "Talent is all there is" Ram Charan BUT Raw ability really isn't everything. It is Necessary but NOT sufficient... need something more... NEXT FACTORS for an OUTLIER. 2. LUCK** --> It matters --> almost THE [determining] factor -- COMPONENTS: ---> DNA: Height, Weight, Intelligence, Looks, Aggressiveness ---> Mom and Dad choosing one another. ---> Environment we were born in... USA is a massive advantage = Military, Universities, and Opportunity ---> Timing ---> Type of Parents & Grandparents (e.g. Helicopter or Free Forming) ---> Unique Moments / Experiences (good and bad) ------> SHAKESPHERE's KING LEAR: "As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods; They kill us for their sport." --------> Unique moments (both good & bad) if you're turbo charged you can capitalize on the opportunity & you blast into the future. ---> (Born with all the right tools, with the talent, and luck, and work ethic, and when opportunity strikes you can go from that (IMAGE) crouched position and explode into the future and get so far out Infront of everyone.... Hyper speed into the universe) --------> THEY KILL US OR PROPEL US INTO GREATNESS.************ --------> There might arise a moment when find yourself in the right place at the right time where you are trajected upwards greatly -- Prof. uses the EX of the elevator ride between an employee and the CEO of the company. He explains how the employee gives his/her input to the CEO and therefore ends up opening many doors since the CEO now has that employee in his/her mind. 3. 10,000 HOURS*** (MOST IMPORTANT) --> Mastery (Variation of Hard Work) = eXPERTISE**

The TABLEAU of DAVID AND GOLIATH: -- LECTURE (15 POINTS)

1. The year is 1,000 BC 2. We are in what is MODERN DAY GAZA in the country of PALISTINE on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. 3. IF WE ZOOM IN we are in the ELAH VALLEY, there's a dry creek bed in the middle of it, and Jerusalem is in the background. 4. It is the ISRAELITES vs the PHILISTINES in the Valley of Elah. 5. There stands DAVID... a young Hebrew shepherd from the town of Bethlehem. 6. ISRAELITES eventually gathered for a battle against the PHILISTINES 7. PHILISTINES had a massive army and were led by GOLIATH a 6 cubit tall man (9ft tall) and was armored with a little gap in his helmet exposing his forehead and he had a big ass sword. 8. KING SAUL (of Israel) offered a reward to defeat this giant who brought fear upon his people. 9. DAVID w/ his unyielding faith in god and confidence offered to challenge GOLIATH 10. SAUL didn't believe in him as he was only a youth... but DAVID insisted and SAUL granted him the challenge. 11. David approached Goliath with the PHILISTINE army standing behind him, and the ISRAELITES and KING SAUL stood behind David. Both sides were cheering, and the IRAELITES were saying "David's are guy, if he can't do it nobody can!" 12. DAVID was light nimble and quick, rushing towards Goliath into position. As Goliath approached him David took the one of the 5 stones that he had equipped into his SLING and hurled a precise accurate projectile (traveling at the same velocity as a .22 caliber round) at GOLIATHS exposed forehead from ~10 yards away. 13. The projectile burrowed itself into GOLIATHs head and he fell to the ground dead. 14. DAVID approached his corpse unsheathed his sword and decapitated GOLIATH. 15. The PHILISTINEs ran in fear and the ISRAELITES and their KING SAUL rejoiced and cheered for their young DAVID who would by the AGE of 30 become KING*********

#4 GOOD BLACK SWAN EX: Birth of Aviation Industry = Wright Bros

4. EX THE BIRTH OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY IN THAT OF THE WRIGHT BROTHERS -- Wilbur and Orville Wright are best remembered for making the first successful powered airplane flight at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina in 1903. The Wright brothers inaugurated the aerial age with the world's first successful flights of a powered heavier-than-air flying machine. The Wright Flyer was the product of a sophisticated four-year program of research and development conducted by Wilbur and Orville Wright beginning in 1899. After building and testing three full-sized gliders, the Wrights' first powered airplane flew at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, on December 17, 1903, making a 12-second flight, traveling 36 m (120 ft), with Orville piloting. The best flight of the day, with Wilbur at the controls, covered 255.6 m (852 ft) in 59 seconds. The Wrights pioneered many of the basic tenets and techniques of modern aeronautical engineering, such as the use of a wind tunnel and flight testing as design tools. Their seminal accomplishment encompassed not only the breakthrough first flight of an airplane, but also the equally important achievement of establishing the foundation of aeronautical engineering. https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/1903-wright-flyer/nasm_A19610048000#:~:text=This%20airplane%2C%20known%20as%20the,Orville%20Wright%20beginning%20in%201899.

What's the difference between A-PLAYERS and BOZOS?

A-PLAYERS MAKE A GREAT ORGANIZATION WHILE BOZOS DESTROY ONE*** A-PLAYERS: 1. HIGH PERFORMERS (Talent): A-players are individuals who consistently demonstrate exceptional performance, skills, and achievements in their respective roles. They excel in their work, surpassing expectations, and often deliver outstanding results. 2. DRIVE & MOTIVATION (10,000 hours): A-players possess a strong work ethic, self-motivation, and a desire to excel. They are highly motivated to succeed, take initiative, and go above and beyond in their responsibilities. 3. CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT (Kaisen -- Continuous Improvement apart of 6th sigma quality control theory): A-players have a growth mindset and actively seek opportunities for learning and development. They embrace challenges, adapt to changes, and constantly strive to improve their skills and knowledge. 4. TEAM PLAYERS: A-players not only excel individually but also contribute positively to the overall team dynamics. They collaborate effectively, inspire others, and contribute to a high-performance culture. BOZOS: 1. UNDERPERFORMERS: Bozos, also known as underachievers or low performers, consistently fail to meet expectations and deliver subpar results. They may lack the necessary skills, motivation, or work ethic to excel in their roles. 2. LACK OF MOTIVATION: Bozos often display a lack of drive, initiative, and motivation to succeed. They may demonstrate minimal effort, show disinterest in their work, or have a negative attitude that hinders their performance. 3. RESISTANCE TO GROWTH: Bozos tend to resist change, shy away from challenges, and show little interest in self-improvement. They may be reluctant to learn new skills or adapt to evolving circumstances. 4. NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE TEAM: Bozos can have a detrimental effect on team morale and performance. Their underperformance and lack of commitment can create a negative atmosphere and hinder the overall productivity and success of the team.

EXAM Q? -- Explain "First Mover Advantage," how does it pertain to STARTUPs vs FORTUNE 500s, Give an Example... PART #2 https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2486211.pdf?casa_token=ka-yPiuTL5QAAAAA:E1d98834qL667noCDLG-fjEe0jCZ1TKtXRyEwmB-MtxgZKTUAAsyhT0rmx_bZSLuUmGZWm31lAgE5-DsfUQz9BfCTSnN5ebfILA-XwOj6oC10a8jdOg

However, it's important to note that being a first mover also comes with risks and challenges. New market entrants may face uncertainty regarding customer demand, incur higher costs due to initial research and development, and encounter regulatory hurdles. Additionally, later entrants can learn from the mistakes and successes of the first mover and potentially develop superior offerings or more efficient business models. While the First Mover Advantage can provide significant benefits, it is not a guaranteed path to success. Each situation is unique, and factors such as market conditions, timing, execution, and ongoing innovation play vital roles in determining the long-term success of a first mover in a given industry or market. EX. Amazon vs Barnes & Nobel

#2 GOOD BLACK SWAN EX: Penicillin and WWII

In 1928 Dr ALEXANDER FLEMMING returned from a holiday to find moUld growing on a Petri dish of Staphylococcus bacteria. He noticed the mould seemed to be preventing the bacteria around it from growing. He soon identified that the mould produced a self-defence chemical that could kill bacteria. CREATED PENICILLINE -- SAVES MILLIONS OF SOLDERS LIVES DURING THE GREAT WAR***

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 8. Willingness to Learn and Adapt:

Jobs appreciated individuals who were eager to learn, grow, and adapt to changing circumstances. He wanted people who were not complacent but were always seeking to improve and evolve.

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 1. Passion and Enthusiasm:

Jobs believed in hiring individuals who were passionate about their work and genuinely enthusiastic about what they were doing. He wanted people who had a genuine interest and excitement for the products and the company's mission.

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 6. Willingness to Challenge and Be Challenged:

Jobs valued individuals who were not afraid to challenge the status quo and speak up when they disagreed. He sought out people who could engage in robust debates and contribute to the development of ideas and products.

EXAM Q? -- Explain "First Mover Advantage," how does it pertain to STARTUPs vs FORTUNE 500s, Give an Example... PART #1 https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2486211.pdf?casa_token=ka-yPiuTL5QAAAAA:E1d98834qL667noCDLG-fjEe0jCZ1TKtXRyEwmB-MtxgZKTUAAsyhT0rmx_bZSLuUmGZWm31lAgE5-DsfUQz9BfCTSnN5ebfILA-XwOj6oC10a8jdOg

The First Mover Advantage refers to the competitive advantage gained by an organization or individual that takes the initial steps or enters a market or industry before anyone else. When a company is the first to introduce a new product, service, or technology, it has the opportunity to establish itself as the market leader. There are several key advantages associated with being a first mover: 1. MKT LEADERSHIP: Being the first in a particular market allows a company to establish itself as the leader and gain a strong foothold before competitors enter. It can lead to increased brand recognition, customer loyalty, and a perception of being the go-to provider in that market segment. 2. TECH OR PRODUCT ADVANTAGE: First movers have the opportunity to develop and patent innovative technologies or products, giving them a head start over potential rivals. This advantage can be crucial in setting industry standards and establishing barriers to entry for competitors. 3. CUSTOMER LOYALTY: Customers tend to develop loyalty to the first company that meets their needs in a specific area. If a first mover can deliver a high-quality product or service and build a loyal customer base, it becomes more challenging for later entrants to persuade customers to switch brands. 4. LEARNING CURVE: First movers have the advantage of gaining valuable insights and experience by being pioneers in a particular market. They can learn from their successes and failures and refine their strategies, processes, and offerings based on customer feedback and market dynamics. 5. CONTROL OF DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS: Early entrants can secure relationships with suppliers, distributors, and other crucial partners in the industry. This can create barriers to entry for competitors and make it more challenging for them to secure favorable partnerships. However, it's important to note that being a first mover also comes with risks and challenges. New market entrants may face uncertainty regarding customer demand, incur higher costs due to initial research and development, and encounter regulatory hurdles. Additionally, later entrants can learn from the mistakes and successes of the first mover and ...

EXAM Q?************ PERTAINING TO RISK AVOIDANCE STRATEGY -- WHAT CAN WE DO TO COMPLETLEY AVOID A BLACK SWAN EVENT?*************** BRO YOU KNOW THIS YOU GOT A MINUTE AND THIRTY TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION...

The best way to AVOID ONE is by "1ST ASKING WHO THEN WHAT". This specifically means getting the right people on board ("which is asking WHO") before determining the direction and strategy an organization should go in ("asking WHAT"). JIM COLLINS explicitly states THIS in his book GOOD TO GREAT that A great organization prioritizes FINDING and CULTIVATING the RIGHT PEOPLE, as they are the ones that drive the success of A company OVER THE LONG RUN. COLLINS suggests that determining the "WHO" involves finding individuals who possess the right SKILLS, VALUES, and ALIGHNMENT with the organization's mission and vision (LIKE STEVE JOBS A-PLAYERS THAT ARE IN ALLIGNMENT WITH THE CORE IDEOLOGY OF AN ORGANIZATION SIMILAR TO BUILD TO LAST). Once the right people are in place, the organization can collectively work on defining the "WHAT" - the goals, strategies, and direction that will drive their success. THIS IS THE ESSENCE OF THE BUS THEORY*******

WHAT DOES THE QUOTE "FIRST ASK WHO THEN WHAT MEAN" FROM JIM COLLINS BOOK GOOD TO GREAT?

The phrase encapsulates a key principle of successful organizations. In "Good to Great," Jim Collins emphasizes the importance of getting the RIGHT PEOPLE on board before determining the DIRECTION and STRATEGY***** of an organization. He argues that GREAT organizations prioritize FINDING and DEVELOPING the right individuals, as they are the ones who will drive the success of the company. The meaning behind the quote is that it is essential to FOCUS on SELECTING and CULTIVATING a strong TEAM of TALENTED and MOTIVATED individuals before making STRATEGIC DECISIONS about what the organization will do. By having the RIGHT PEOPLE IN THE RIGHT PLACE, organizations increase their capacity to adapt, innovate, and achieve long-term success. Collins suggests that determining the "WHO" involves finding individuals who possess the right SKILLS, VALUES, and alignment w/ the organization's MISSION and VISION (CORE). Once the RIGHT PEOPLE are IN PLACE, the organization can collectively work on defining the "WHAT" - the goals, strategies, and direction that will drive their success. In summary, the quote "First ask 'who,' then 'what'" from Jim Collins' book "Good to Great" underscores the significance of prioritizing the selection and development of exceptional individuals as a crucial step in building a successful organization.

#6 GOOD BLACK SWAN EX: The Telephone Alexander Bell

WHO: ALEXANDER GRAHAM BELL WHEN: 1876 WHERE: Clarke Institute for Deaf Mutes, Northampton, Massachusetts WHY + HOW? = He met the president of the institute, a prominent patent lawyer called Gardiner Greene HUBBARD. Later, in BOSTON, BELL began to investigate ways of putting his knowledge of musical pitch to use in electric telegraphy. His 'harmonic telegraph' was designed to transmit several messages along the same wire by using tuned electromagnetic reeds to send and receive multiple pitches—or frequencies—simultaneously. "If I can get a mechanism which will make a current of electricity vary in its intensity, as the air varies in density when a sound is passing through it, I can telegraph any sound, even the sound of speech" ALEXANDER GRAHAM BELL. HUBBARD began financing his research in 1876 and that year is when BELL created the TELEPHONE*** They got in a legal battle with Mrs. GRAY (there may have been malfeasance with BELLS PATENT LAWYERS and the US PATENT OFFICE but it will never be known). On 10 March 1876, three days after the publication of his patent, Alexander Graham Bell made history with a peremptory instruction to his assistant Thomas Watson: "Mr Watson, come here—I want to see you" Crackly and indistinct, but intelligible, the words were the first to be spoken over the telephone. https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/ahoy-alexander-graham-bell-and-first-telephone-call#:~:text=In%20the%201870s%2C%20Scotsman%20Alexander,Deaf%20Mutes%2C%20Northampton%2C%20Massachusetts. https://www.fi.edu/en/blog/story-behind-telephone#:~:text=It%20was%20through%20his%20work,the%20idea%20of%20transmitting%20communication.

3 and 3+ Sigma:************ (5 things)

o Sigma 1 - 68% of all data points o Sigma 2 - 95% of all data points o Sigma 3 - 99.7% of all data points o Sigma 3 = The world of A Players o Outliers are 1 in 3000, they are individuals that are to the right of Sigma 3 (99.7%)

Define NORMAL DISTRIBUTION:***

(aka Gaussian Distribution or Bell Curve) -- a continuous PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION that is symmetric and characterized by its mean ('mu") and standard deviation ("sigma"). It is NATURALLY OCCURING.

Two ways to make money with company stock:

1. Share buybacks 2. Dividends

How did Nassim Taleb describe the BLACK SWAN EVENT in his book?

FINISH

Hassim Taleb fled from _______****

Lebanon

OBSERVATION: Water is the new oil. It is costlier to produce 1 gallon of water than 1 gallon of oil. --> Desalinization Plants... Tommorrow is about Strategy***

read this...

3 eXAMPLES OF OUTLIERS: (POSSESSING THE 3 CHARACTERISTICS)*****

1. -- EX: BILL GATES: Born w/ an Ungodly amount of raw TALENT and IQ, - LUCKY -- Born into a good family which his dad was a lawyer (affluence/security/stability) and he had access to a computer in 7th grade and so began his career into software and computers. (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/bill-gates-got-what-he-needed-to-start-microsoft-in-high-school.html#:~:text=Luckily%2C%20he%20listened%20to%20his,and%20faculty%20alike%2C%20Gates%20says). - 10K HOURS STUDIED THE HELL OUT OF THE COMPUTER BEFORE IT WAS MAINSTREAM AND TAUGHT HIS TEACHERS AND STUDENTS HOW TO USE IT... ON THE FOREFRONT. 2. -- EX: BEATLES: - bORN WITH INCREADBLE RAW TALENT AS MUSICIANS AND STORY TELLERS... Tried to make the music timeless and make people happy and they sincerely loved making music. - LUCKY in that they all met eachother really young and formed it you too. Parents were super supportive of it and allowed them to practice and record in the bathroom and the house to get best accustics. - WORK ETHIC -- played for 10,000 hours in Germany before hitting it big in America = MASTERY 3. -- EX: GORDIE HOWE: One of the Greatest Chicago Redwings right wingers ever (close to the most goals, assists, penalty minutes ever), played for 40 years and won 4 chips 3 of which were consecutive. 23 all-star appearances. MOST DEF PUT 10K HOURS IN TO BE THIS GREAT*** - HAD A SUPER SUPPORTIVE FAMILY AND UPBRINGING - Born with amazing physical and mental talent for the support...***

ALEXANDER BELL, commonly known as Alexander "Graham" Bell, was a Scottish-born inventor and scientist who is credited with inventing the _________. He was born on March 3, 1847, in Edinburgh, Scotland, and died on August 2, 1922, in Baddeck, Nova Scotia, Canada.

telephone

Define German term "Weltanschauung"

worldview

Define KAISEN:***

1. Japanese saying meaning "CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT" 2. Factory lines have a "big red button" that stops production if someone sees something wrong. After which managers will investigate and ask questions upon questions upon questions until they get to the root of the problem.

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS from book written by biographer WALTER ISSACSON on Steve Jobs: (CHATGPT) These characteristics provide insight into the qualities ... FINISH THE SENTENCE What are the 5 partial characteristics of A-players the Prof. described from Walter Isaacson's book on Steve Jobs? Describe them

1. Passion and Enthusiasm: 2. Excellence and Perfectionism: 3. Creativity and Innovation: 4. Intellectual Curiosity: 5. Strong Design Sense: 6. Willingness to Challenge and Be Challenged: 7. Team Player: 8. Willingness to Learn and Adapt: These characteristics provide insight into the qualities Jobs valued in potential hires and the type of CULTURE he sought to create at Apple. 1. ADAPTIBILITY - change w/ the times w/ info 2. COMMITMENT - hold through the tough times... 3. A HUNGER TO LEARN ** 4. INTELLIGENCE - Talent: Ram Charan = "Talent is all that matters." --> It is necessary but not sufficient. 5. SELF-STARTER - Jeff Bezos Story = Take whatever direction is given & go off running. -- OUR SYSTEM RICHLY REWARDS OUTLIERS*********

What are the CHARACTERISTICS of a BLACK SWAN EVENT?

1. Rare 2. Unpredictable --> Come out of nowhere 3. Huge Impact

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION (3 things) (D.N.Ex3.2.A.D)****************

1. it is Drawn as a symmetric BELL CURVE 2. it also occurs NATURALLY 3. EX's of it occurring in NATURE include: heights, IQs, overall age of men and women (all can be found in a BELL CURVE/Gaussian distribution 4. the 2 characteristics of it are it has a MEAN (greek letter "mu") & STANDARD DEVIATION (greek letter "sigma"). 5. As you move away from the MEAN (or the AVG) the curve drops into smaller tails with less frequent/probable data points on the distribution as you go more SIGMAs away from the MEAN. o Sigma 1 - 68% of all data points o Sigma 2 - 95% of all data points o Sigma 3 - 99.7% of all data points o Sigma 3 = The world of A Players o Outliers are 1 in 3000, they are individuals that are to the right of Sigma 3 (99.7%) 6. discovered by Carl Friedrich Guass (1809)

3 LEVELS OF A HIGH IMPACT BLACK SWAN EVENT (NOT CHARACTERISTICS OF IT):

1.) Corp., Country, Individual DIES = NO COMING BACK FROM**** - EX. Corp BKs - EX Natural Disasters = Damage done to city of Pompei from Mount Vesuvius. ----> Dead is worst possible outcome 2. RESILIENCE --> gets knocked down but gets back up... a. EX: Best biz example of this is JNJ and the Tylenol Crisis of 1982. --> Prof askes Q? about what the situation was about*** ---> CYANIDE was in the tampered Tylenol bottles across the country --> ** ---> People Die = 7 in Chicago ---> Mayor of Chicago announces it. ---> Executive of JNJ see this on TV and immediately rush to get all their Tylenol Bottles taken off the shelves around the country, also putting out notifications to customers via advertising about the situation and what to do. ---> This lead them to create "tamper proof packaging" and as a result of their consorted efforts b. REAL WORLD EXAMPLE = professor played semi pro baseball after college back in the day and was sponsored by the steel company he was working for then. ---> A 13-year old freckle face kid came to the coach and wanted to shag balls, and do whatever he could to be around that environment. ---> After putting in 10k hours and all that he came into HS balling and dominated enough to get recruited by USC. ---> Frat bros dug him, chicks loved him, he was the class body president at USC... Had it all going for him. ---> But in college he got tommy johns and his career was effectively over so he KILLED HIMSELF. ---> HE COULD NOT GET UP AGAIN FROM THAT BLACK SWAN*** (KEY POINT). 3. ANTIFRAGILITY: - DEFINED as not only getting back up but moving higher than you were before.****************** - Another DEFINITION of ANTIFRAGILITY can be captured in a quote by Friedrich Nietzsche ... "What doesn't kill you simply makes you stronger. ---> EX. Steve Jobs is fired by Apple's B.O.D. and as a response he bought Pixar in 1986 for between 7-10 million and within two decades he sold it for $7 billion dollars to Disney (ran by Bob Iger at the time). After that he founded Next and eventually it got bought out by APPLE and he was shortly reinstated as the CEO when it was in complete disarray. But even with him overcoming this black swan of getting fired he could not overcome the deadliest black swan wh

6/13/2023 -- A Players Strategy/HR Strategy: - Go through each point from the LECTURE

6/13/2023 -- A Players Strategy/HR Strategy: - Go through each point from the LECTURE

MIGHT BE EXCESSIVE -- Difference between A-PLAYERS & OUTLIERS:

A-PLAYERS: A-players typically refer to individuals who consistently demonstrate high performance and excellence in their respective fields. They are the top performers within a given context, such as a company, industry, or academic discipline. A-players are known for their exceptional skills, expertise, work ethic, and ability to consistently deliver outstanding results. They are sought after for their talent and are often recognized and rewarded for their contributions. EXTREMELY WELL ROUNDED. OUTLIERS: Outliers, on the other hand, are individuals who deviate significantly from the average or expected norms. In the context of achievement or performance, outliers are those who excel to an extraordinary degree, surpassing even the top performers (A-players) in their field. They are often seen as statistical anomalies due to their exceptional abilities, talents, or achievements that are well beyond what is considered typical or expected.

Telephone = _________ ____ (WHO?)

ALEXANDER BELL

What is an Example of a First Mover Advantage Case that is Reminiscent of David and Goliath? What are their Strengths and Weaknesses

AMAZON vs BARNES & NOBEL: - AMAZON Strengths: a. SMART, NIMBLE, FAST, & FOCUSED: "I found this fact on a website that the web was growing at 2,300 percent per year," Bezos told CNBC in a 2001 interview about his early foray into book selling. "The idea that sort of entranced me was this idea of building a bookstore online." This fact coupled with their business have extremely low cost of capital and cash heavy characteristics + responsiveness to opportunities (with fast changing consumer demand and consumption patterns) compared to brick-and-mortar retailers like Barnes & Nobel. sUPER SMALL IN THE BEG. AND WAS WORKING OUT OF BEZOS APARTMENT. c. SIGNAL FROM ABOVE / SLING (MORALS/MISSION = COMPETATIVE ADVANTAGE): Their culture was long term oriented and OBSESSED WITH THE CUSTOMER and did everything in their power to build that brand equity when they started as a first mover TO SUSTAIN THEIR POSISITON AS THEY SCALED. BARNES & NOBEL: BARNES & NOBEL Weaknesses: a. SIZE, SWORD, and SHIELD: Their shear size on the BRICK-&-MORTAR front (9,000 locations at peak) (SIZE), their $5 billion of topline at its peak (SWORD), and established market position in the minds of consumers and established brand (SHEILD) made them set in their ways and overly confident. b. SLOW MOVING: With that size on the Brick-and-mortar front made it harder for them to adjust to consumer demands and opportunities as they come along. c. HARD OF SIGHT (GAP IN HELMET EXPOSING FOREHEAD (WEAKNESS****)): Not taking the internet seriously as a disrupter and finding ways to capitalize on it as an opportunity led to it getting left behind. MORE COSTS associated with brick-and-mortar business, slow moving nature of adjusting to consumer demand fluctuations, among other things contributed to them getting blow out of the water and getting a .22 caliber hole punched in their only weak spot in their helmet by a little but mighty AMAZON (KING DAVID).

What are some examples of **GOOD** BLACK SWAN events MENTIONED IN CLASS? - Think of every possible one from class***** - Think the LEVELS of the BLACK SWAN EVENTS and think of what category each Black Swan falls into.

BLACK SWAN LECTURE: (6.27.2023) 1. EX. 3M**** & the POST-IT-NOTE***** #2 GOOD BLACK SWAN EX: Penicillin and WWII = In 1928 Dr ALEXANDER FLEMMING... #3. EX. GEORGE DE MESTRAL and VELCRO® 3. EX STARBUCKS 4. EX THE BIRTH OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY IN THAT OF THE WRIGHT BROTHERS 5. EX. The discovery of OIL in America (Titusville Pennsylvania) 1859*** 6. 1890's Alexander Graham Bell

Why do CLAWBACKS occur?

Because EXECUTIVES are UNDERSERVING***

_____ will ruin your company*** (think A-Players)

Bozos

Paint the story of DAVID AND GOLIATH (CHATGPT) (pt 2)

Goliath, taken by surprise, staggered and fell to the ground, his great strength crumbling before the might of David's faith and God's intervention. Seizing the moment, David rushed forward, drew Goliath's own sword from its sheath, and swiftly beheaded the giant. The Philistines, witnessing the unexpected defeat of their champion, were filled with fear and confusion. They fled in disarray, and the Israelites pursued them, achieving a resounding victory. The triumph of David over Goliath became legendary, inspiring generations to come. David's extraordinary act of courage and his unwavering faith in God demonstrated that even the smallest and seemingly least significant among us can overcome insurmountable odds. His story has become a symbol of hope and encouragement, reminding us that with faith, determination, and trust in a higher power, we can face and conquer our own personal giants.

A2 through A7 in WSJ equates to what Accronym?

CCS_GEETZLE C - Consumer C - Competitors S - Suppliers G - Gov't E - Economy E - Environment T - Technology Z - Zeitgeist L - Law

Who came up with NORMAL DISTRIBUTION? When?

Carl Friedrich Guass (1809)

"The store will become the most powerful physical expression of the brand" - Steve Jobs There were T-shirts made at one point, which read - "90 hours a week and loving it". The management mantra was - 'By expecting employees to do great things, you can get them to do great things'.*** "In the first 30 years of your life, you make habits. For the last 30 years of your life, your habits make you." The maniacal focus on Design -" Design was not just about what a product looks like on the surface. It had to reflect the product's essence." "We won because we personally love music. We made the iPod for ourselves, and when you're doing something for yourself, or your friends or family, you're not going to cheese out. If you don't love something, you're not going to go the extra mile, work the extra weekend, challenge the status quo as much" "If you don't cannibalise yourself, someone else will." (Preserve the core and stimulate the rest)

Just read this...

If you lower the Temp. of Natural Gas it turns into a _________________

LIQUID

Why would Natty Gas being a LIQUID be beneficial?

LNG is easier to transport ****

David's Strengths & Goliaths Weaknesses:

David's STRENGTHS: - First mover, young, smart, signal from above, agile, focused, deadly serious. Goliath's WEAKNESSES: - Slow, overly confident, hard of sight

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 7. Team Player:

Despite his strong personality, Jobs recognized the importance of teamwork and collaboration. He looked for individuals who could work well in a team, communicate effectively, and contribute positively to the collective goals of the company.

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 4. Intellectual Curiosity:

Jobs admired intellectually curious individuals who had a hunger for learning and exploring new ideas. He believed that people who were curious and had diverse interests would bring a broader perspective and contribute to Apple's innovation.

#5 GOOD BLACK SWAN EX: Discovery of Oil in the United States***

Edwin Drake was the first person to discover oil in the USA in 1859 in Titusville Pennsylvania. Prior to Drake striking black gold in Oil Creek near Titusville, other investors had tried profiting from the area, although none as successfully as Drake. Before Drake, others used the then-known methods of drilling for oil, which only caused setbacks and never led to marketable quantities of oil. For example, Samuel Kier, an important Pennsylvania figure, had tried to set up a refining enterprise in Pittsburgh but was kicked out by people who feared an explosion. One exception in Titusville was Hamilton McClintock, a farmer, who had the lower part of the creek on his property, where he would capture the oil seeping to the surface of the water. In one season, he could capture as much as 20 to 30 barrels. Investors consistently agreed on the importance of Titusville and its oil. McClintock's seepage caused great interest in the area; one agent purchased 100 acres of land for $5,000. The locals were astonished by the price of the "worthless land" where the oil constantly dirtied their shoes. In the 1850's the excitement around oil and Titusville began to brew again and a group of chemists, lawyers, and others formed the first oil company in the United States, the Pennsylvania Rock Oil Company of New York, later renamed Seneca Oil Company of Connecticut. Drake was hired due to the sheer coincidence that he was out of work and staying at the same hotel as the founders of the company. His previous job with a railroad provided him with a free railway pass that worked in his favor. He took his family to Pennsylvania in hopes of finding an alternative to using whale oil for lamps. Drake did his initial reconnaissance of the area in December 1857 and returned again in 1858 with the title of "Colonel." https://pabook.libraries.psu.edu/literary-cultural-heritage-map-pa/feature-articles/edwin-drake-and-oil-well-drill-pipe https://aoghs.org/petroleum-pioneers/first-oil-well-fire/

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 5. Strong Design Sense:

Jobs had a deep appreciation for design and aesthetics. He looked for individuals who had a keen eye for detail, an understanding of user experience, and a sense of beauty in their work.

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 2. Excellence and Perfectionism:

Jobs had a reputation for striving for perfection and demanding excellence in everything Apple created. He sought out individuals who had a track record of delivering high-quality work and who shared his dedication to creating exceptional products.

T/F -- a BELL CURVE is a NORMAL DISTRIBUTION that DOES NOT occur NATURALLY.

FALSE - Bell Curve is in fact a Normal Distribution but it DOES occur Naturally***

What are some examples of **BAD** BLACK SWAN events MENTIONED IN CLASS? Both Man Made and Natural Disasters: - Think of every possible one from class***** - Think the LEVELS of the BLACK SWAN EVENTS and think of what category each Black Swan falls into.

FINISH

What are some examples of BLACK SWAN events from 2017 to 2022? Try to find a major one for each year.

FINISH

Where did the origins of the BLACK SWAN term come from? How does this tie into the BLACK SWAN directive? How does this pertain to strategy?

FINISH

Image shown is an important, gigantic piece of machinery for petroleum - 34154 · Caterpillar & Deere are two companies that produce equipment · Chinese American roots go back when you think about undertaking a massive mining operation o Railroads were built by Chinese Americans o Now it only takes the machine shown in the picture · LUCK = Time & Place of birth

FINISH AND SUMMERIZE THIS SHIT***

LIST OF 8 CHARACTERISTICS of A-PLAYERS: 3. Creativity and Innovation:

Jobs valued creativity and sought individuals who could think outside the box and come up with innovative solutions. He wanted people who could contribute fresh ideas and push the boundaries of what was possible.

DOESN'T REALLY PERTAIN TO WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT*** xx 6 SIGMA quality control is a methodology developed by THIS COMPANY in the 1980s.... 6 SIGMA quality controls CREATION is often attributed to ____ _____, an engineer at THIS COMPANY in the 1980s... 6 SIGMA is connected to the "______" concept. **The idea is if you're MANUFACTURING a million products, ___ out of a million will be faulty ------------don't need to read------------------------- 6 SIGMA is a data-driven approach used to improve the quality and efficiency of processes in various industries. Its primary goal is to minimize defects (___ OUT OF 1,000,000 WILL BE FAULTY), reduce process variation, and improve overall customer satisfaction Here's an overview of its purpose and applications: 1. PROCESS IMPROVMENT: 2. QUALITY MANAGMENT: 3. REDUCTION OF DEFECTS AND WASTE: 4. CUSTOMER-CENTRICITY: 5. STANDARDIZATION AND CONSISTENCY: 6. CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT (Kaisen):

Motorola; Bill Smith; Motorola; Kaisen; 3; 3

Who is the Father of the BLACK SWAN book?

Nassim Taleb

OUR SYSTEM RICHLY REWARDS _______*********

OUTLIERS

Paint the story of DAVID AND GOLIATH (CHATGPT) (pt 1)

Once upon a time, in the ancient land of Israel, a young shepherd named David lived a humble life in the town of Bethlehem. David was known for his exceptional bravery, deep faith, and his remarkable skill with a slingshot. In those days, the Israelites faced a formidable enemy, the Philistines, who had gathered for battle in the Valley of Elah. The Philistines were a powerful and fearsome army, with a giant warrior named Goliath leading their ranks. Goliath stood over nine feet tall, clad in a suit of armor, and carried a massive spear and shield. His very presence struck terror into the hearts of the Israelites. King Saul, the ruler of Israel, was troubled by the presence of Goliath and his army. He offered a great reward to anyone who could defeat the giant and bring victory to the Israelites. News of this spread throughout the land, reaching the ears of young David. Though David was just a shepherd, he possessed a fierce determination and unyielding faith in God. When he heard about the reward and the challenge Goliath posed, David saw an opportunity to display his courage and to trust in God's guidance. Without hesitation, David approached King Saul and offered to fight Goliath. However, Saul doubted David's ability to defeat the giant, for he was just a young boy and Goliath was a seasoned warrior. But David's unwavering confidence in God and his belief that God would deliver him from any danger convinced Saul to allow him to face Goliath. As the day of the battle arrived, David gathered five smooth stones from a nearby stream and placed them in his shepherd's pouch. Armed with his slingshot, he walked confidently onto the battlefield. Goliath, with his imposing presence, laughed scornfully at the sight of David, mocking him for his youth and apparent insignificance. But David remained undeterred. He proclaimed his faith in God and boldly declared that he would strike down Goliath and bring victory to the Israelites. With a single stone loaded in his slingshot, he took aim and let it fly. The stone whizzed through the air with astonishing speed and struck Goliath squarely in the forehead. Goliath, taken by surprise, staggered and fell to the ground, his great strength crumbling before the might o

Amazon EXAMPLE of First Mover Advantage (CHATGPT) (pt 1)

One notable example of the First Mover Advantage is the case of Amazon.com. When Amazon was founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos, it started as an online bookstore, but Bezos had a grand vision of creating an online marketplace that would sell a wide range of products. At that time, e-commerce was still in its infancy, and many traditional retailers (BARNES & NOBEL) had NOT yet embraced the concept of selling goods online. Amazon saw the potential of the internet and became the first significant player in the online retail industry. By being a first mover, Amazon was able to establish itself as a trusted brand (COST OF SWITCHING + EQUITY IN THE CONSUMERS MIND) and build a vast customer base (PRICE FIXING MAKE NO MONEY ON BUSINESSES INITIALLY, FIND A WAY TO MONETIZE). It invested heavily in infrastructure, logistics, and customer service to provide a seamless online shopping experience (PREEMPTION OF ASSETS = INVESTMENT IN PLANT AND EQUIPMENT AKA INFURSTRUCTURE = ECONOMIES OF SCALE = MONETIZE EXCESS CAPACITY WITH AWS = DOMINATE THEIR SPACE SO THEIRS A MASSIVE BARRIER OF ENTRY). As a result, Amazon gained a competitive advantage over traditional retailers and other online start-ups that entered the market later. Amazon's early entry into the online retail space allowed it to capture market share, expand its product offerings, and continuously innovate its services (LEARNING CURVE = Continually drove down unit cost over time in an already extremely low cost of capital business). It leveraged its first-mover advantage to negotiate favorable deals with suppliers, build a robust distribution network, and develop its proprietary technologies like one-click purchasing and personalized recommendations (Reminiscent of STANDARD OIL co-op with railroads). Over time, Amazon's dominance in the e-commerce industry enabled it to diversify into various other sectors, including cloud computing (Amazon Web Services) (CAPITALIZE ON EXCESS CAPACITY GENERATED THROUGH PREEMPTIVE INVESTMENT), digital content (Amazon Prime Video), and smart home devices (Amazon Echo). Its first-mover advantage laid the foundation for its growth and positioned it as a market leader, setting industry standards and significantly influencing the retail land

Define Ostracization:

Outcasted

"As DAVID was to GOLIATH, so is a _______ to a _______ ___ company"

STARTUP; FORTUNE 500

The majors that have the MOST payoff post grad. (ROI) are ... (Think Acronym)***

STEMB: - Science - Technology - Engineering - Medicine - Business

Define Schmoozing:*

Speaking & acting w/ other people to win over their hearts & minds.

What is the title of Hassim Taleb's first book?

The Black Swan***

Define the word DIASPORA:

The spread of a person from their original homeland.

9 In Malcolm Gladwell's book "Tipping Point," why do influential individuals he calls "SALESMEN," OR INFLUENCER described in class, drive the spread of ideas and trends? - Need to figure out the swimming pools example he mentioned.... (FINISH)***

The way to launch a product is to get an INFLUENCER, the product starts off with small initial "clicks" that slowly start clicking, and then by overnight everyone has that product. - A CHARASMATIC INFLUENTIAL PERSON CAN CONTIBUTE TO THE SPREAD OF A PRODUCT/IDEA

6/8/2023 & 6/13/2023 -- Directive #6: Outlier, A Player, and David & Goliath HR Strategies - Go through each point from the LECTURE and the extra RESEARCH you did for all 17 points - structuring THIS LIKE THE LECTURE... SAME FLOW AS THE LECTURE EXCEPT I WILL BE ADDING IN THE POINTS DISCUSSED IN THE PRE-CLASS RESEARCH**

This is Drawn from two of Malcom Gladwell's best selling books titled as above in addition to the A-Player strategy of Apple's Steve Jobs. Do a minimum of three-hours of pre-lecture research. Take Good Briefing Notes. This will require both Tuesday and Thursday classes. List the points:.... TALKING POINTS: **1. A Players and Bozos **2. Beatles **3. Ram Charan: "Talent is..." 4. Jim Collins 5. Cubit **6. Carl Friedrich Gauss 7. David/Goliath: Five Business Examples **8. Bill Gates **9. Malcolm Gladwell **10. Gordie Howe 11. Walter Isaacson **12. Steve Jobs: "Combine business... **13. Luck 14. Philistines **15. Shakespeare: "As ants are to..." **16. 3 and 3+ Sigma **17. Ten Thousand Hours

What company gobbled up Credit Suisse post default and run? Define Clawback: EX?

UBS*** Clawback - a situation in which a gov't or corp. gains back severance packages (money or benefits) already given out. -- OCCURS because executives are underserving. EX CNN CEO Chris Licht walks away with $20M, now that he's departed, the B.O.D's realize that he didn't do a good job when he was there, so they ask to give back a bit of the $20M initially given

It is critical for this exam that you understand the CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD AND BAD BLACK SWANS and give know examples for each. (FINISH THE EXAMPLES)

What are the Characteristics of BLACK SWANS in its normal form: 1. RARE 2. UNPREDICTABLE 3. HUGE IMPACT What are the 3 LEVELS of High Impact "BAD" BLACK SWANS: 1. (WORST) DEATH 2. RESILLIANCE 3. ANTIFRAGILITY EXAMPLES FOR EACH*** FINISH

Is PROBABILITY THEORY a subset of statistics? -- SKIP THIS xx

YES, PROBABILITY THEORY is considered a foundational component of STATS. PROBABILITY THEORY provides the mathematical framework for quantifying uncertainty and defining the probability distributions of random variables. It establishes the rules and principles for calculating probabilities and understanding the behavior of random phenomena. STATS, on the other hand, involves the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data. It uses probabilistic models and techniques to draw inferences, make predictions, and draw conclusions about populations based on sample data. PROBABILITY THEORY serves as the theoretical foundation for STATistical methods and concepts. It provides the tools and principles necessary for STATistical inference, which involves using sample data to make inferences about a pop. or to test hypotheses. By combining PROBABILITY THEORY with STATistical methods, we can make probabilistic statements about data, estimate parameters, perform hypothesis tests, and make predictions. In summary, PROBABILITY THEORY forms the basis of statistical reasoning and provides the mathematical framework for understanding uncertainty, while STATS applies probability theory to analyze and draw conclusions from data.

6/22/2023 -- Directive 09: Black Swan Strategies - Go through each point from the LECTURE and the extra RESEARCH you did for all 24 points

You will need to do some Web research on this Black Swan concept. Give it ten hours---use your team and I'll do the heavy lifting lecture. Do however come to class reasonably knowledgeable about the Puzzle Pieces below. This is an opportunity to pick up Participation Points. This topic is likely to go two class sessions starting June 22. Black Swan PUZZLE PIECES: 1. Avoidance Strategies 2. Bell, Alexander 3. Black Swan Term Origin 4. Black Swan Characteristics 5. Black Swan Business Exs (2027-2022) 6. Broken Windows Theory 7. Butterfly Effect 8. Chaos Theory 9. Death-Resilience-Antifragility 10. De Mestrel, George 11. Drake, Edwin 12. Fleming, Alexander 13. Fry, Art 14. Good Black Swans 15. Lorenz, Edward 16. Mitigation Strategies 17. Nietzche, Friedrich 18. Quant 19. Taleb, Nassim Bio 20. Unknown Knowns 21. Unknown Unknowns 22. Wilson, James Q.

What was Steve Jobs HR Strategy?

He only hired A-PLAYERs. You cannot lose if you hire A-PLAYERs.

*The APPEAL of NATTY GAS is... when it burns it creates ___________ (heat, fuel) --> desirable feature is emissions are pretty _____... --> CO2 still escapes though as "carbon" merges with ______...

electricity; clean; oxygen

Think of yourself as _________ in this lecture: --> you don't know was dead, what the motive was, how many bullets fired, who's responsible, etc. (IMAGE: mapping out crime on board with the red string) Process begins w/ Palimpsest / Tabula Rasa --> (Little by little pieces come together & the picture becomes clear) Piecing this puzzle together, pieces of the palimpsest go onto the detectives evidence board = (put it on there)

detectives