Foreign Policy Second Quiz
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
¼ daily production of oil travels through (at its narrowest it's 21 miles) Dangerous artery Iran can block at anytime
Examples of US policy regarding Iran
1953; CIA sponsored coup 1979; Iranian Revolution 1980-1988; Iran-Iraq war 1988; Vincennes Incident 1990's-Present; sanctions and embargoes Obama administration; Iran Nuclear deal Trump administration; sanctions and targeted killings
Why does Mearsheimer think nuclear proliferation is so likely?
Because as Us and Soviet forces left Europe, he believed countries would need nukes to maintain balance of power
Chinese-American Relations
China is becoming increasingly aggressive in South China sea which is frustrating the US China and US are competing to be superior power
What does Failsafe suggest about the relationship between civilians, academics, and military figures?
Civilian; a hawk perse (the professor cannot stop talking about how the US should make the first move and blow up the entire world) Military; is a dove (blackie is trying to slow down everything, even though he is a highly respected officer he doesn't approve of wiping out entire populations if you don't have to)
What threat does Iran pose to American interests?
Client groups Iran's Ballistic Missile Program Iranian Cyber- Infrastructure (2012) Active Denial in The Strait of Hormuz
What events unfolded across the Cold War?
Colonies Collapse Bipolarity (two REALLY powerful countries) Nuclear Weapons Turkish Straits Crisis (1946), Berlin Airlift (1948), The Korean War (1950-1953), The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
What threat does Russia pose to US interests?
Era 1 (1999-2012) Missile defense debate Oil crackdowns The georgian war Era 2 (2012- present) LGBT rights The ukraine rights The syria crisis Election interferences in the West Threats; Not military conflict Limited balancing (Central Asia, Belarus, Cuba) Social change; communist A threat at the periphery
What does Failsafe imply about American-Soviet relations?
Failsafe implies how Cold War tensions between Soviet Union and U.S. lead to accidental thermonuclear first strike due to powerplay.
Fukayama proposes that there are four alternatives to liberalism, two historical and two contemporary. What are these four ideological alternatives, and why do they not meaningfully threaten the liberal world order?
Fascism, communism, nationalism, and theocracy
What do you think would happen if there was a power transition in the international system? How would it feel if the United States was not the strongest (or at least was not exclusively the strongest) state in the international system?
If it is correct, we need to worry about American state of power.
How has Russian foreign and domestic policy evolved since the end of the cold war?
In the eyes of the Russians foreign and domestic policies have been stabilized by Vladimir
According to Ostovar, what does Iran want?
Independance from the West (at minimum) Leadership of Shiite muslims Keeping the U.S. out of Middle East as much as possible Alliances to counter anti-iranian states in Middle East
How would you describe America's strength and power today? What makes America strong? What makes America vulnerable?
Internationally the US is ______________ A big economic power A leading military power ICONIC Falling behind→ massive debt A democracy
How has Iran exacerbated tensions with the West? And how has the West exacerbated tensions with Iran?
Iran Hostage Crisis (1979-1982) ARGO Militias around the middle east; Beirut (1983) Iraq (2003-present) Long run foreign policy goals
Why does Iran support client groups like Hezbollah?
Iran wants to strengthen their influence in the Middle East and want to promote groups that attack secular groups
What is the agent-structure debate in international relations? How could it be applied to world events today?
It may be understood as whether an individual acts as a free agent or in a manner dictated by social structure
How do McFaul and Sestanovich disagree with Mearsheimer?
McFaul says Putin is a smug and intelligent leader who has successfully dismantled pillars of west Sestanovich says Putin is not that smart and has received lucky breaks while barely keeping Russia afloat
What do each of these authors say the US should do about the Ukraine crisis?
Mearsheimer; leave Ukraine alone, lay off getting Ukraine and Georgia in NATO and EU. Stop provoking Russia McFaul/Sestanovich; push against Putin protect and promote Russia, balance against Putin!
What is the difference between multipolarity, bipolarity, and unipolarity? When has the international system been unipolar? Bipolar?
Multipolarity means that one country exercises most cultural, economic and military influence Bipolar means there are only two top superpowers (Cold War) Multipolarity means that there are multiple superpowers vying to be top power
Johnsons identifies three theories that affected American's conceptions of the Soviet threat. Describe and define these three theories.
Nazi-Hitler Analogy; Stalin and Soviets resemble Hitler's reign and seizure The Domino Theory; if one country falls to communism others will follow Manicheism; there is "light" and "dark" and no in between
Do you think eternal American unipolarity would be good for the international system? Why or why not?
No international politics will never go back to a balance of power. (US spends more money on defense than all other 14 countries combined).
What was the effect of the end of the Cold War?
Pope John Paul II The Greenham Women Lech Walesa Boris Yeltsin in 1991 Mikhail Gorbacher Deng Xiaoping (1982-1987); becomes premier of China IGO and NGOs expand UNIPOLARITY all over the world (including the U.S.) regime change and increased level of coordination among the international nations, massive military change
What does bringing countries to PAR mean?
Popular, Accountable, and Rights-regarding which are pillars of liberal democracies
Summarize Ikenberry and Slaughter's argument here
Protect the homeland Keep the global economy going Maintain a "benign" world order; not a lot of conflict between main powers Do so by.... Promoting governments up to par Protecting and reforming liberal world order Rethinking how power should be used Power Transition Theory; a realist theory of how great models operates, states will be revisionists about international system, countries will run into a brick wall, marginal cost=marginal benefit
What is radical theory, and how does "The Postcolonial Moment" by Barkawl and Laffey differ from other theories of the Cold War?
Radical Theory; the problem is deeper (we lean on biased accounts) and often focus on evidence from western whtie male or statist sources. Not only is this potentially biased, but it may miss important political phenomena. Barkawl and Laffey argue that it's natural to believe the cubans are radical communists (Cuban Missile Crisis). They told Soviets to plant the missiles The Chinese and Taiwanese The Yugoslavs Implications; Very multipolar world History is far more fluid and complex We need to be skeptical of narratives and descriptions (9/11, Trump)
What is the realist argument about the Cold War?
Realism emphasizes anarchy, militarization, and insecurity. States will feel insecure over their rival, which leads to bipolarity. Anarchy + Bipolarity = Cold War Agents are basically helpless, all that matters is fear and anarchy
What is the realist argument about the Cold War? The orthodox argument?
Realist Argument; doesn't matter who wins war anarchy will still arise after World War 2. All great powers will feel insecure resulting in an anarchy Orthodox Argument; the soviets were revisionist aggressors in the Cold War. No structure, one agent the SOVIETS.
Four outlooks on China
Realist Pessimist; China is catching up and aims will expand with power Liberal optimism; conflict unlikely because there is so much trade between US and China Realist optimism; is so far behind us militarily so it won't ever catch up Liberal Pessimists; Risk that China becomes Democracy; people want property and freedom
What are the four key theories of US-Chinese relations that we discussed? Why are their predictions different?
Realist Pessimist; China is catching up and aims will expand with power Liberal optimism; conflict unlikely because there is so much trade between US and China Realist optimism; is so far behind us militarily so it won't ever catch up Liberal Pessimists; Risk that China becomes Democracy; people want property and freedom
What should the US do about Iran?
Regime overthrow Strategic containment Co-operations of clients Conditional normalization
Johnson mentions at least four reasons why the Soviets did not pose a military threat in Europe. Describe at least two of these arguments.
Soviets knew conquest would be difficult (be of resistance) War, conventional or otherwise, would be a disaster (if they invaded West Germany they would have to bomb) Nobody behind communist party in Europe
When Fukuyama refers to the "end of history", what does he mean?
The "end of history" refers to, it was the end of mankind's ideological conflict, more plainly universal liberalism not utopia. No ideological competition to liberal democracy. Fukayama (main argument); material vs. ideal Interstate competition will come back anytime now the BOP is only a few years away. Wider argument realism states in Europe face an end to Bipolarity, military equality and nuclear stability paucity of economic, institutional, or regime arguments..
Johnson identifies three theories that affected American's conceptions of the Soviet threat. Describe and define these three theories.
The Nazi Hitler Analogy; comparison between Stalin and Hitler. Soviets believed to be more dangerous than the Nazis. The Domino Theory; if one country falls to communism all others will fall Manicheism; dividing the world into "black" and "white"
According to Gaddis, what was Stalin's strategy for winning the Cold War?
The Soviet Union was identified as an "aggressor" in the Cold War. Their plan was to have the Soviet Union to wait for imperialists to fight.
What happened at the Paris Peace Conference?
The Treaty of Versailles was signed, and the japanese delegates The Racial Equality Clause was dismissed. Wanted ½ of China, didn't change the way the international system worked. The League of Nations must have all members agree to get something passed, so that the P 5 do not over dominate.
What is the agent-structure debate?
The debate over the powerful strain between structures (international institutions, cultural norms, and preconceived notions) and agency (the capacity of individuals to change world events)
What is the Kantian Tripod? Why does the Kantian Tripod produce peace?
The tripod is democracy, economic independence, and international law and organizations These decrease the number of conflicts because democracy and independence make states much more receptive of each other
Mearschiemer identifies three American policies that provoked the Russians. What were they?
Theory; the US/EU caused conflict Historical Precedent; NATO expansion EU expansion 2004 Ukraine revolution Proximate Causes; 2014 Ukraine revolution and agreement Democracy promotion in Russia
What does Fukiyama props the end of history will look like?
There will no longer be conflicts against liberal democracies and society will no longer have the need for international conflict
What does Failsafe suggest about nuclear and military technology?
They are both really powerful and moving too fast, (Blackie tries to make the point that those aren't thinking about wiping out everyone they are concerned with power)
How did World War 2 change the global balance of power? What major events defined th US-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War
Turkish Straits Crisis (1946) Berlin Airlift (1948) Korean War (1950-1953) Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) Afghanistan Crisis (1979)
What comes to your mind when you think about Russian-American foreign relations, or Russia more broadly?
Ukraine Crisis Crimea Election Meddling Cold War; Korea Cold War proxy war! Nuclear Weapons