Global Politics - Power in the Asia Pacific

Economic Prosperity

Revolves around achieving continued economic growth (China has set annual growth targets between 6-6.5%) - supports the attainment of Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream and the attainment of the Twin Centenary Goals

Factors influencing the pursuit of national security

Existence of Separatist Movements Uighurs in Xinjiang province view themselves as ethnically distant from the Han Chinese; threat to social cohesion and national security - led to China taking more forcible and coercive movements in order to preserve the Han majority of China e.g. legal amendment made to Article 33 of the Xinjiang Region's Regulations Against Extremism

pragmatism

a school of though in which policy is influenced primarily by practical considerations, as opposed to a particular ideology

security

traditionally refers to the protection of a state's borders from intruders and the maintenance of sovereignty, and most commonly achieved through the use of military power

International Standing

understood as a state's reputation within the broader international community; china has recently tried to reposition itself within the international community from that of a threatening outsider to a peaceful actor with a deeper involvement in the Asia Pacific region and a more proactive approach to diplomacy and development. - helps china to project a more positive image of itself, whilst also enabling the pursuit of other national interests

Factor influencing the pursuit of Regional Relationships

'The good neighbour policy' was first stated in the 2011 Peaceful Development paper, where the CPP stated that in order for China to be rich and strong it must maintain "peaceful relations" with its neighbour - encouraged them to pursue mutually beneficial diplomatic agreements with regional states like the Philippines and thus enabled the achievement of positive collaboration, therefore the attainment of positive regional relationships e.g. October 2016 Duterte met with senior members of the CCP, leading to him stating it was "springtime in Beijing-Manila relations", and signed 13 bilateral agreements with Beijing worth around $13.5 billion

Actions in the South China Sea

- Since 2014, China has intensified large scale construction and installation of military-capable infrastructure at seven of the features it occupies in the Spratly islands - in 2018, China began militarising artificial islands in the South China Sea by installing anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles

National Security

CCP defines national security as covering maintenance of state sovereignty; preservation of territorial integrity; protection against the three forces of terrorism, separatism, extremism; and protection of overseas energy resources and Chinese national overseas

China's aid in the Pacific

China has increased their aid program rapidly in recent years, spending approximately US$1.26 billion in the Pacific from 2011-2018 - Vanuatu: $88.3 million to fund redevelopment of the wharf in Luganville 2017 and 2018 China announced it would pay to build a house for the President, new finance ministry and new foreign ministry, worth $36 million - Fiji: 2016 provided USD$30 million to fund the building of the Stinson Parade Bridge and the Vatuwaga Bridge

China's interpretation of international standing

China is undertaking a peaceful rise and wishes to enhance its international standing through the use of peaceful development in the region - One way China has sought to pursue cooperation and peace and promote peaceful development is through its use of aid in the Pacific - in 2016, China provided USD $30 million to fund the building of the Stinson Parade Bridge and the Vatuwaga Bridge for Fiji

Regional Relationships

China seeks to preserve "peaceful relations" with their regional neighbours whilst also achieving a 'peaceful rise'

Factor influencing the pursuit of economic prosperity

Desire to achieve the 'Chinese Dream' Involves becoming a 'moderately well off' society by 2021 as well as becoming a 'strong, harmonious and modern socialist society' by 2049; aims to double 2010 GDP per capita by 2020 and complete urbanisation by 2030 - led to the introduction of the BRI which is intended to build infrastructure to reroute global trade to and from China through the creation of an economic belt overland and a maritime silk road; 90billion invested and 125 sign ups

Factor influencing the pursuit of international standing

Desire to be viewed as undertaking a peaceful rise First referred to in the 2011 Chinese White Paper on Peaceful Development - led to attempts made to enhance the popularity of their culture through the use of Confucius Institutes; 548 institutes established as of March 2019, with the hope that they will help to frame China as a 'builder of world piece'

EP: influences

HARD: use of economic influence and financial incentives to coerce states Pragmatism: was introduced to boost sea and land trade routes and improve transport logistics --> these are practical considerations rather than ideological concerns

DP: influences

Hard: using diplomacy and economic incentives as a coercive tool to influence ac tors to strengthen their claims over the South China Sea Soft: trying to increase their attractiveness to other countries by signing the Paris Climate Agreement, further boosting the idea of them as a peaceful global actor Pragmatic: China has undertaken their diplomacy with the Philippines in order to establish bilateral trade agreements and promote economic prosperity and thus a more practical outcome Idealism: China has undertaken this action primarily influenced by the ideological principle of sustaining the environment; their ideological commitment to tackle the global challenge of climate change

Alternative interpretation of international standing

IMF believes that China is not using aid in the Pacific merely to 'pursue cooperation and peace internationally' to enhance its international standing, but instead are using it as a way of extending their own influence in the region e.g. in 2018 the IMF noted that Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu all face considerable debt repayment pressures as a result of aid that China has given to them; arguably a reflection of the negative impact that irresponsible aid is having

MP: International Standing

NEG: 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, stating that China had no sovereign rights to the territory, undermines the idea that China is a 'peaceful actor' withn the international community due to their violation of UNCLOS

Aid: international standing

NEG: China has been criticised for creating debt traps that cannot be repaid; in 2018 the IMF noted that Tonga, Samoa, and Vanuatu all face considerable debt repayment pressures which is arguably a reflection of the negative impact that irresponsible aid is having on China's international reputation

PP: international standing

NEG: July 2019, more than 20 UN Ambassadors co-signed a letter that was sent to the UNHRC, openly criticising China's treatment of Uighurs within Xinjiang POS: the same month, UN Ambassadors from 50 other states signed a letter that was sent to the UNHCR defending China's treatment of Uighurs

MP: regional relationships

NEG: Philippines commenced proceedings against China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration indicates that these actions partially damaged the relationship; Japan and the US were also critical of military drills in 2019 NEG: in 2017, one year after the ruling, Beijing reportedly threatened Vietnam with military action if they did not stop drilling in their own EEZ; March and May 2018 saw similar attempts by Vietnam, leading to similar warnings being issued

CP: international standing

NEG: in December 2013, the Canadian Association of University Teachers passed a resolution calling on all Canadian universities and colleges that currently host CIs on their campuses to cease doing so POS: Scope of Confucius Institutes internationally (548) indicates a positive impact on China's international standing and the idea of China as a peaceful actor in the global community

Philippines

October 2016, the President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte was invited to Chine where he met with senior members of the CCP; "springtime in Beijing-Manila relations", and the Philippines signed 13 bilateral agreements with Beijing worth around 13.5billion

Princeling interpretation of Economic Prosperity

Often have the interpretation that economic prosperity is best promoted by advancing the interests of entrepreneurs and the emerging middle class while also deepening China's links with the world economy e.g. Xi Jinping's BRI demonstrates the desire of Princelines to integrate China more deeply with the world economy

DP: regional relationships

POS: "springtime in beijing-manila relations" from Duterte reflects the positive impact on regional relationships despite the ongoing disputes between the two states in the South China Sea NEG: US embassy in Beijing released a statement in 2019 stating 'We continue to have serious concerns that China's infrastructure diplomacy activities ignore or weaken international standards';Suggests BRI is putting pressure on the US-China relationship

MP: Economic Prosperity

POS: China is securing greater control over strategic shipping lanes and USD $2.5 trillion worth of unexplored oil and gas reserves POS: critical commercial gateway for significant portion of the world's merchant shopping --> one third of the world's shipping passes through it, carrying over $3 T per year

PP: national security

POS: China sees their use of political power against the Uighurs as helping to maintain national security as it removes the threat of 'ethnic separatism and violent terrorist activities' NEG: alienates the Uighurs further which my lead to violence from Uighurs as a result of crackdowns from the government, thus threatening national security

CP: Regional Relationships

POS: Christopher Pyne stated in 2014 (when he was the Federal Minister for Education) that Australia welcomed CIs as they promote chinese languiage and culture in a friendly, accessible and education way NEG: US Florida Senator Marco Rubio openly criticised these institutes in March 2018 "increasingly aggressive attempts to use Confucius Institutes and other means to influence foreign academic institutions and critical analysis of China's past history and present policies" - some US major universities have been cutting their ties with Confucius Institutes due to the widely held belief that programs were Chinese propaganda wrapped in culture and language education e.g. 2014 Uni of Chicago

Aid: national security

POS: a condition of receiving aid from China is that a state must promise not to recognise the independence of Taiwan - both Vanuatu and Fiji do not recognise their independence - by attaching conditions to the aid they provide, China is undermining Taiwanese claims to independence and strengthening its own claims over Taiwan - supports social stability and the Chinese Dream

PP: economic prosperity

POS: according to Dr Anna Hayes from James Cook University, 'the territory of Xinjiang is such an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative...so they want it under firm control so there's no internal threat"

EP: International Standing

POS: according to Marc Uzan, the executive director of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, "the Belt and Road Initiative is the beginning of a new era of development in the region, and in the future this road will be known as the Peace Road" NEG: Criticism from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) which released a report in 2018 saying that Chinese banks and companies were using "debt diplomacy" irresponsibly to lure other regional states into debt traps NEG: as the Indian PM Modi states, "it is little more than a colonial enterprise that would leave debt and broken communities in its wake"

Aid: regional relationships

POS: at the opening of the Stinson Parage bridge, PM Bainimarama referred to China as "Fiji's staunch cooperation partner and sincere friend" POS: August 2017 at the completion of the handover ceremony for the Project of Rehabilitation and Extension of Lunganville Main Wharf, PM Salwai said "The Vanuatu-China relations are broadening and deepening. Our strategic partnership with China has brought us many benefits and is far from exhausting its potential NEG: China's interests in the region are often met with considerable suspicion; January 2018 former Development Minister Concetta Faraventi Wells (AUS) described Chinese aid projects as useless, leading to countries taking on debts that they cannot afford and building buildings for the heck of it.

DP: economic prosperity

POS: by 2016, trade between China and Cambodia had reached already $4.8billion, with Cambodia importing $3.9 billion worth of chinese goods POS: as a result of diplomatic discussions between the Philippines and China, bilateral trade agreements were signed, estimated to be worth USD$13.5 billion POS: According to the World Resources Institute, "the old development model is no longer working, and just out of its own economic interest, China is looking for new ways to spur the economy" 2016 - implies that the decision to attempt to reduce emissions and moves turns renewables may ultimately benefit their economy

MP: National Security

POS: by building military infrastructure, China is strengthening their own territorial claims under the Nine Dash Line and extending their sovereign controls in the region; will enable sustained air and sea patrols

DP: national security

POS: by using diplomacy to improve regional relationships, China is also able to strengthen their territorial claims in the South China Sea e.g. in 2012 when Cambodia has ASEAN chairmanship, it used its authority to back China in the South China Sea Territorial Dispute POS: during Duterte's visit to China, rather than pressing on with the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in relation to the South China Sea, he appeared more focused on promised investment and trade deals; he himself referred to the ruling as "just a piece of paper with four corners"

DP: international standing

POS: by using diplomacy to strengthen relationships, this is in turn contributing to Xi Jinping's view that China is undertaking a 'peaceful rise' NEG:According to the CSIS more than 270 out of 1,814 BRI projects undertaken since 2013 in the Indo-Pacific region have been halted due to concerns with practicality or financial viability POS: in 2016 the Washington based World Resources Institute stated that China has taken "more and more concerted and aggressive actions against climate change... and their decisions to ratify the Paris deal underscored how it now recognised climate change as a growing problem" - China is being perceived as a global leader

EP: Economic Prosperity

POS: in 2017, the SOAS China Institute from the University of London reported that the initiative "encompasses areas of security and economics an is also China's challenge to US hegemony" - between 2014-2016 there was $3 trillion worth of trade between China and other states - Bert Hofman, World Bank's Country Director for China, the large scale nature of BRI "could stimulate Asian and global economic growth" and reduce trade costs between 1.1%-2.2% NEG: according to head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, "...[T]here is a concern that some investments - if not properly tended - could wither on the vine"; many chinese bankers and banks are concerned with the potential political instability and economic viability of many projects

EP: national security

POS: the String of Pearls Theory emphasises that China is projecting their influence and protecting access to resources through gaining control over ports that allows them to further project military power e.g. Port of Gwadar in the provinc of Baluchistan, apart from serving as a commercial port, is also deep enough to accommodate submarines and aircraft carriers e.g. signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Myanmar to assist with the construction of a Deep-Sea Port in Kyaupyu

EP: regional relationships

POS: when commenting on the railway connecting Laos to China, in May 2017, the President of Laos visited Beijing and commented that the BRI was bringing tangible benefits POS: in 2019 the Thai PM spoke very positively about BRI stating that he was supportive of the initiative as it was a food way of promoting multilateralism in economic growth in the region NEG: US embassy in Beijing released a statement in April 2019 stating that "we continue to have serious concerns that China's infrastructure activities ignore or weaken international standards and best practices"

CP: economic prosperity

POS: when used in conjunction with Trade as a FPI, building relationships with Laos supports trade --> development of bridges and high speed railway in Laos as part of the BRI - In July 2018, a Confucius Institute was set up in northern Laos, which led to the Deputy Minister of Education for Laos, Mr Sengmany, commenting on CIs as a positive way of deepening their relationship

hard power

Refers to power exercised through coercion, or threatened acts of coercion, to influence the actions of other global actors. Most commonly exercised through military forms.

CP: influences

Soft: CPC Deputy Education Minister Hao Ping stated that "establishing Confucius Institutes is a strategic plan for increasing our soft power" as well as Politburo member Li Changchun stating that the institutes are "an important part of China's overseas propaganda set up" Pragmatism: China wants to extend their influence in the international community to promote national interest such as economic prosperity through international trade Idealism: promotes respect for Confucius ideology and cultural ideological ideas of China

CCP interpretation of National Security

The CCP wants to eliminate separatist movements in order to maintain the Han majority

Confucius Institutes

The Chinese Government has focused on transmitting its cultural values through the establishment of Confucius Institutes; their stated aim is to promote Chinese language and culture, support local Chinese teaching internationally and facilitate cultural exchanges --> 548 CIs by March 2019 "Establishing Confucius Institutes is a strategic plan for increasing our soft power" Chinese Deputy Education Minister Hao Ping 2014

Alternative interpretation of economic prosperity

The Tuanpai (Populists) place more attention on supporting vulnerable social groups such as farmers, migrant workers and the urban poor in order to promote economic prosperity e.g. Li Keqiang has made affordable housing more widely available and taken efforts to introduce a basic social safety net beginning with the provision of basic healthcare, and also tried to rejuvinate the economy in the old industrial base in the Northeast

Political Power

The ability of a state to use internal mechanisms such as judiciaries, laws and propaganda to pursue its objectives and influence the actions of actors within China

China's educational transformation institutions

The top official in Xinjiang stated in 2018 that "vocational education" centres had been set up and were proving effective in staving off terrorism - in October 2018, a legal amendment was made to Article 33 of the Xinjiang Region's Regulations Against Terrorism which enabled china to use "educational transformation institutions" to correct behaviour that China perceived was linked to extremism

Alternative interpretation of Regional Relationships

USA have expressed that China's use of Confucius Institues is instead focused upon enabling China to extent its own influence in the region e.g. Senator Tom Cotton stated that "China funds Confucius Institutes on America college campuses to stifle criticism of atrocities like the Tiananmen Square Massacre and indoctrinate our kids with the party line", as well as the Introduction of the Transparency for Confucius Institutes Act 2020

Alternative Interpretation of National Security

Uighur community take a more peaceful and accepting approach to the issue of the Uighurs, with the belief that the aggressive actions taken by the CCP should be stopped; e.g. Rebiya Kadeer, Leader of the World Uighur Congress, called them "Nazi-style concentration camps", and said she "will stop the hunger strike when the United Nations and other international organisations stand up with Uighur people against Chinese brutal and harsh policy"

MP: influences

hard power: use of military force to assert their power and dominance in the region pragmatism: shows China has a disregard for international law particularly UNCLOS in favour of the practical considerations of extending their control within the region

Aid: influences

hard: China is compelling and coercing states to support them in return for aid e.g. support their claims to Taiwan and the pragmatic desire to strengthen their national security pragmatism: China is providing aid to build a stronger alliance of countries in the Pacific region that supports their claims to Taiwan - protects territorial integrity against separatism as it wants to form stronger regional relationships in order to improve trade routes and diplomacy

PP: influences

hard: The legal amendment made to Article 33 of the Xinjiang Region's Regulations Against Extremism was a representation of hard power through the coercive nature of such action pragmatism: Despite going against the ideology of equality and no racial/cultural discrimination, the CPP pursued these efforts in order to gain the practical outcome of the Han Chinese Majority

Cambodia

in 2010, China and Cambodia agreed to an official strategic partnership to strengthen bilateral cooperation; aimed to increase bilateral trade to 2.5billion by 2015

Paris Climate Agreement

in September 2016, China ratifies the Paris Climate Agreement; Xi Jinping said China would continue to confront the causes of climate change and environment degradation and vowed to close coal mines and steel mills as part of that effort - cut carbon emissions by 60-65% per unit of GDP by 2030

Aid

involves the provision of assistance, predominantly money, to global actors with the intention of influencing their decisions and actions in order to achieve a specific aim

sovereignty

legitimate or widely recognised ability to exercise effective control of a territory within recognised borders

national interests

pursued to ensure the survival and potential growth of that state

idealism

refers to a school of through in which foreign policy is influences primarily by an ideological principle, as opposed to practical and pragmatic consideration

diplomacy

refers to the ability of a state, through international relationships, reason and discussion, to influence the actions of other global actors

power

refers to the ability of one global actor to influence the actions of another global actor

soft power

refers to the ability of one global actor to shape the actions of other global actors via attraction, with the absence of incentive or coercion

CCP interpretation of Regional Relationships

the CCP asserts that the good neighbour policy, first articulated in the 2011 Peaceful Development White Paper means that they must develop strong relationships with their regional relationships; through the use of Confucius Institutes

Cultural Power

the ability of a state to use distinct features of that state to enhance their international reputation and influence the actions of other global actors

military power

the ability of a state to use force or threatened use of force to influence the actions of another global actor - money, munitions, manpower and morale

economic power and trade

the ability to use financial incentives or penalties to influence the actions of another global actor; China GDP 2019 $14.140 trillion, with a GDP growth of 6.1% the manipulation of the exchange of goods, services, labour and capital to influence the actions of another actor

Belt and Road Initiative

the intention of this policy is to build infrastructure to reroute global trade to and from China by creating an economic belt overland and a maritime silk road; - to date, approx USD$90 billion has already been invested and 125 countries have signed up - USD$5.2 billion has been spent to build a railway to link Thailand, Laos, Malaysia and Singapore - String of Pearls Theory; suggests that China is trying to establish a string of naval bases that will allow it to station shops and guard shipping routes through the region