Gov 12.4-12.6

turnout

the proportion of the voting-age public that casts a ballot - states can add different regulations to limit the pool of eligible voters ( ex. felon participation or ID) -US voter turnout is much lower compared to other industrialized democracies

Other Commitments

17.5% of voters said they were too busy or had conflicting work and school schedules to vote - or a family emergency or ill/disabled Could be an excuse because they don't know the candidates or what's going on

what is the most powerful predictor of vote choice?

party identification

religion (voting choice)

Jewish voters--> Democratic Protestants--> increasingly Republican - due to the rise in social conservatives and republican emphasis on personal responsibility Catholic groups are much more divided - historically voted with the democratic party bc of social programs but since 1970s and rise of abortion issues they have casted larger Republican votes

ideology

Liberals: favor government involvement in social programs, ideals of tolerance and social justice Conservatives: ideals of individualism and market-based competition moderates lie somewhere in the middle ideology is closely related to voting choice liberals--> Democrats conservatives--> Republican

permit mail and online voting

Some states vote almost entirely by mail-in ballots - have increased voter turnout in these states there are concerns about decreased security and increased fraud; may delay election results Internet voting - can be used for military members and families - people are wary of the security of this method because of hackers and inability to prevent voter fraud - fear that an all online system may disenfranchise poor voters who are less likely to have an internet connection

President Obama judgement example

Voters in swing states used retrospective judgement to credit Obama with bailing out automative companies and saving manufacturing jobs. Voters then used prospective judgement to bolster support by Obama by questioning Romney

Race and Ethnicity (voting choice)

Whites--> Republican African Americans--> Democratic Hispanics are likely to vote Democratic but not as strongly as African Americans Asian and Pacific Island Americans are more variable to voting - Chinese--> Democratic - Vietnamese--> Republicans ( anti communism)

conventional political participation

activism that attempts to influence the political process through commonly accepted forms of persuasion - voting - letter writing

unconventional political participation

activism that attempts to influence the political process through unusual or extreme measures - protests -boycotts -picketing

modernizing the ballot

after 2000 election when punch card ballots had not been fully separated, legislators called for reform to modernize the ballot

Help America Vote Act

aids states in upgrading voting equipment - paper ballots are now used in less than 10% of jurisdictions - 32 states mark paper ballots but they are counted by computers - 11 states, voting is completely electronic states have also experimented with other technologies like Ipads for the disabled need training for poll workers, administrators, and voters on how to use new equipment critics say that lack of paper trail = fraud and worry that machines might crash during an election; price of machines updating election equipment and ensuring fair elections should be a legislative priority

age ( voting turnout)

eligible to vote at 18 after 26th amendment but it enfranchised a group that is least likely to vote - 30+ voters are most likely to vote - begins to decrease at age 70 ( mostly due to difficulties to getting to polls) - 50% of 18-29 year olds are eligible to vote --- most plausible reason is that young people are moving around a lot and have to make an effort to register when they move; have no roots in the community - voting chances increase when young people settle down, marry, and have children

enable early voting

in attempt to make voting easier for citizens who have other commitments on election day, some states allow voters to engage in early voting--> cast their ballot up to a month (time varies by state) in advanced by mail or polling location critics say that this decreases the importance of campaign; regret their decision; cast ballot for someone who drops out etc.

make registration easier

in most states, people must register before election day - those states that permit election day registration have a higher turnout though voter turnout could important if registering to vote was easier voters could be automatically registered to vote when they turn 18 increasing voter registration drives in areas where many citizens are not registered would increase voter turnout

Individual issues

issues can also have important effects in election year - state of the economy --- voters reward party in government during good economic times and punish that party during economic downturn (retrospective judgement)

gender (voting turnout)

it is generally accepted that women vote at a lower rate than men - recent polls might be contradicting this

winner-take-all electoral system

one vote could decide the outcome of the election - inspiring citizens to turn out to vote is important Why is there such low turnout?

weakened influence of political parties

parties are not as effective as they once were in mobilizing voters, ensuring registration, and getting them to polls - today it is candidate and issue centered politics - expansive parties make it hard to have connections between party and people - fewer people who identify strongly

interest in politics

people who are highly interested in politics are only a small minority in US - less than 5% - those who contribute time or money to party/candidate make up 10% of adult population - although low percents it is millions of reliable voters

Income and education (voting choice)

poor--> vote more Democratic wealthier--> Republican more educated people tend to make more money so education follows a similar pattern to income - the most and least educated tend to vote Democrat - those in the middle (bachelors degree) tend to vote Republican

party identification

self describe democrats tend to vote for Democratic candidates and the same for self-described republicans - obvious in less visible elections when voters may not know anything about the candidates and need a cue to help them vote - even in presidential elections there is a high correlation between vote choice and party affiliation

voter attitudes

some voters are alienated with others are apathetic - lack of pressing issues - satisfaction with the typical - uncompetitive elections citizens may not want to vote in elections with petty issues

strengthen parties

strengthening political parties = increase voter turnout because parties have historically been the most successful at mobilizing citizens to vote - Golden age political machines how to enact reforms that strengthen parties? - allow parties to raise and spend greater amounts during campaign process --- raises ethical questions about the role and influence of money in politics - could also enact broader systemic reforms that allow for multiparty system and more party competition encouraging the parties to enhance get out the vote efforts additional voter education programs

difficulty of registration

stringent ballot access laws make it harder to vote - must provide some form of education in 30 states - in 9 states this must include a photo - argue that this is to limit the ballot access to a number of groups like women, minorities, poor, elderly, and disabled not to prevent voter fraud In some states, they stopped the enforcements of these provisions

The Voting Rights Act

targeting states that once used literacy or morality tests or poll taxes to exclude minorities from polls - bans any voting device or procedure that interferes with minority right to vote - requires approval for any changes in voting qualifications or procedures - federal government can monitor all elections in areas where discrimination was practiced or where less than 50% of voting-age public was registered to vote in 1964 election African American voter turnout has increased dramatically

make election day a holiday

the busy workday is an obstacle for many would-be voters - proposed that Election day should be a holiday - tradition of Tuesday being election day should reduce risk of using it as extended vacations

number of elections

there are so many U.S. elections, even compared to other democracies, people may skip part of the electoral process time to time - separate elections at local, state, and national levels and use of primary elections

civic engagement (voter turnout)

those who are members of civic organizations, trade and professional organizations, and labor unions are more likely to vote and participate in politics - people who more frequently attend church are also more inclined to vote These organizations emphasize community involvement which encourages voting and exposes members to requests for support from political parties and candidates - develop organizational and communication skills union membership is likely to increase voter turnout as well

absentee ballot

those who plan to be out of state or are unable to vote must face challenges with the absentee ballot - many states require people to apply in person for absentee ballots

income and education ( voter turnout)

those with higher incomes tend to vote more often - wealthy citizens are more likely to think that the system works for them and that their vote makes a difference - recognize their direct financial stake in the decisions of government lower income citizens feel alienated from politics - less likely to believe vote will make a difference--> reluctant to vote college grads are more likely to vote than those with less education - people with advance degrees are most likely to vote - learn more about politics - less hindered by registration requirements - more self-confident

retrospective judgement

voters evaluation of a candidate based on past performances on a particular issue - voters rendering judgement on party in power based on past performance

prospective judgement

voters evaluation of a candidate based on what he or she pledges to do about an issue if elected

ticket-splitting

voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same elections - recently there have been higher levels of this Reasons why? - voters don't trust either party - aware of different parties and split ticket to augment checks and balances - growth of issue and candidate centered politics has made party less important as a voting cue

Race and ethnicity (voting turnout)

whites tend to vote more regularly than African Americans, Hispanics, and other minority groups Why? - racial minorities tend to be poorer and have a less formal education than whites ( African Americans that are highly educated and wealthy are most likely to vote compared to whites of similar background) - long term consequences of voting barriers that African Americans faced historically in the US (deep south) --- African Americans had trouble registering for voting until the 1960s--> The Voting Rights Act - Hispanics have the power to yield large political power because there are so many --- but have very low voter turnout

gender (voting choice)

women--> Democratic men--> Republican gender gap varies with election; normally between 5-7% ( women support average Democrat 5-7 percent more than men) can also be a gender gap in intraparty contests as well