gov exam 2

snyder and ting on what parties provide candidates

"Candidates do not simply join the party with the nearest platform, but rather take into account the position of their district's median voter and the electoral consequences of their affiliation decision. As a result, candidates with identical preferences may wish to join different parties in different districts" -critical to understanding how you see parties take shape and how democratic party came about in texas

B

-"utility" benefit of voting -differential benefit of one candidate winning over the other -think about in material

first past the post

-1 vote per voter -votes for whatever positions they want to -votes for 1 seat -US system -one seat up for grabs -breeds a two party system -conflicts are muted bc the parties are big tent orgs

single-nontransferable vote

-1 voter per voter -votes for whatever positions they want to -votes for more than one seat -multiple seats up for election -ex: japan

proto-party system (first)

-1800-1824 -jeffersonians vs federalists -dominated by jeffersonians -jeffersonians do well with southerners and westerners -federalists fo well in new england -•Riff between people who wanted more aggressive gov (fed) and people who were distrustful of gov and wanted more power in the people and states (jeff) -party competition is confined to the elite level only, no involvement of the people

jacksonian party system (second)

-1828-1856 -democrats vs whigs -balanced and fierce competition -democrats do better in southern and western states -whigs do well in new england and midwest -focused on states' rights (dem wanted more), immigration and national expansion, and tariffs -extensive grass-roots mobilization

civil war party system (third)

-1860-1892 -democrats vs republicans -whigs couldnt handle issue of slavery so republican party emerges and takes over -republicans dominate 1860-76 then it becomes balanced and fierce (jim crow laws and segregation give dems power) -rep dominate in north and west -dem dominate in south and urban areas -focused on war, commercial/transport, slavery, and commerce regulation -extensive grass-roots mobilization with high levels of voter turnout

system of '96 (fourth)

-1896-1928 -dem vs rep -rep dominate (besides wilson 1912-1920) -rep dominate in north and west -dem dominate in south and urban areas -focused on economic regulation (rep wanted), gov reforms, and progressive -demobilization occurs due to primary, civil service, and ballot reforms were put in place -voter turnout went down

new deal party system (fifth)

-1932-1964 -dem vs rep -dem dominate -dem dominate in south, urban areas, and new immigrants -rep dominate northern, anglo-saxon protestants -focused on gov economic regulation (dem focus on economic need esp for immigrants and women) -party system that laid foundation for parties we have today -turn out goes up, mobilization fo second-generation immigrants and women

strom thurmond

-1948 -formation of dixiecrats in response to truman's push for civil rights -southern democrats -he was their nominee -got on ballot in 4 states as dem nominee -collected 2.4% of pop vote, 22.6% of vote in south, 38 electoral votes -ran best with whites who lived near a strong concentration of blacks -party didnt win but it quieted calls for a civil rights bill from the dem party

george wallace

-1968 -attempted to block two black students from entering univ of bama in 1963 -formed the american independent party -appealed to those who felt that civil rights were hurting them (mainly to whites w lower socioeconomic status and young) -gained 10mil votes, 13.5% pop vote, 34.3% in south, 46 electoral college -him and AIP forced nixon to take stronger conservative stance on race issues

post-new deal party system (sixth)

-1968-present -dem vs rep -balanced and fierce competition -dem dominate with middle and lower-status whites, racial and ethnic minorities -rep dominate with white southerners and evangelicals -focused on civil rights and gov intervention in the economy -demobilization until 2000 and then mobilization after

criticisms of rational choice model

-Assumes high levels of knowledge, interest, and engagement to relate yourself to the candidates -Assumes single dimension to political competition (there are multiple dimensions and you cant calculate position status) -Empirical predictions about who will win are often incorrect

response bias/response rate

-Average response rate for media-sponsored national surveys is about 10%. -Low response rates are a problem if the people who choose to complete the interview are systematically different from those who decline -If responses do not represent pop correctly, you cannot make predictions on population

preclearance

-Before they could make any changes to their voting laws or districts, they had to get preclearance from the department of justice -these states had history of racial discrimination in voting practices

approval voting

-Each voter casts votes for any alternative he or she approves of -The alternative with the most votes wins -"okay, yeah, i can live with it" -separates options into fine by me and no way -can end up with no decision in which nobody beats all their rivals •May give you richer way of thinking but requires more effort

nomination campaign

-Goal is to amass enough delegates to the party's nominating convention in order to win the nomination

issues and concerns people have about the longevity of voting rights act

-No way in preventing states from discrimination and can only know if it happened after the election -Instead of being proactive, it is reactive today

criticisms of social-psychological model

-Not very political. -No explanation for change over time, or differences in outcomes across elections. -Methodologically flawed (Difficult to tell casually which comes first (party or issues) and measurement of issue positions)

senate going into 2020

-Of the 34 Senate races on the ballot in 2020, Republicans already control 22 of them while Democrats hold only 12. That represents something of a role reversal from 2018, when Democrats had to defend 26 of 35 seats being contested. -Still, Republicans start this cycle favored to hold the Senate, but there is a plausible path for Democrats, particularly if Democrats win the presidential race. -The most vulnerable senator from either party is Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), followed by Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). A special election in Arizona also starts as a Toss-up.

condorcet procedure

-Pairwise round-robin tournament determines if one alternative defeats each of its rivals -Can end up with a tie score which leads to No decision •Whoever is chosen to win was beaten by at least one other group •have to sit down think everything through in order to vote for every option against another

why did voter turnout decreases across the 1960s-90s

-Parties did not contact and mobilize voters as they had done in previous eras. -during this time parties served as systems for money rather than gaining voter turnout

findings of berelson, lazarsfeld, and mcphee

-People didn't change their mind much -Started off undecided with some weak preferences -Over course of campaign their partisanship became more active -People weren't that interested in politics -we are in social networks w opinion leaders -cross-pressuring causes people to abstain from politics

voting methods

-Simple Plurality -Plurality Runoff -Sequential Runoff -Borda Count -Condorcet Procedure -Approval Voting -different voting methods can lead to diff outcomes -helps carry out the will of the people

money matters

-This usually favors incumbents. -It matters most in open-seat races. -Well-funded challengers have the best chance of beating incumbents.

party id matters

-Very few districts elect members from the minority party within that district. -Those that do most often switch back in the next election

Tammany Hall

-a political organization within the Democratic Party in New York city (late 1800's and early 1900's) seeking political control by corruption and bossism -took advantage of mass politics -used gov to provide their members with jobs and opportunities in exchange for votes

what is the purpose of political parties?

-according to aldrich 1.Help to solve the "social choice problem" for office-seeking politicians 2.Help to solve the "collective action problem" for office-seeking politicians 3.Have been an appropriate mechanism for organizing and communicating with voters in a historical sense

issue consistency

-across time: indiv not likely to have same opinion on issue at two different points in time; mental coin flips-on the spot decisions; experiences shape opinion) -across issue domain: indiv opinion on one issue doesn't predict opinion on another -leads to low levels of ideological constraint

rally around the flag effect

-americans tend to support the president and the commitment of troops to a foreign war once boots hit ground •almost always tends to decrease over time or flatline •Opposition is affected by first casualties

criticisms of phillip converse

-analysis and data come from the 50s when nothing was going on which makes the findings unreliable (a study was done in the 70s that support ideologies a lil more, but results were not that different) -the way converse measured issues leads to confusion of this theory -if you allow people to express gradation, inconsistencies are not as prominent

why do blacks vote at a higher rate than white counterparts

-argued it is linked to psychological well being -can link this to civil rights movement

phillip converse

-argued most people do not have a full set of coherent political opinions or beliefs nor do they even know what ideology is -low levels of ideological constraint (extent to which your attitudes are well structured) lead to low levels of conceptualization and low levels of issue consistency

sample size

-as sample size gets larger, margin of error decreases

R

-benefit of voting -probability that the voter will turn out -greater than 0, person will vote -less than 0, person will not vote

ross perot

-benefited from americans displeasure with the major parties -created the reform party -gained a lot of success mainly bc of resources he had (bought tv time during prime time shows/hours, gained ballot access, $73 million campaign) -participated in presidential debates -won 18.9% of pop vote, no electoral college votes -took votes from both dem and rep -clinton still would have won if he had not run

who should you target if you want to mobilize?

-black women •Black women accounted for most of Obama's coalition •Tend to think about central male figures but ones doing all the work are typically black women

party identification of southern whites and blacks (1952-2008)

-blacks have always identified more so as dems -whites have always identified more so as rep -starting in the 60s whites move out of dem party into rep while blacks move into dem party

what was actually found about conventional wisdom

-branch of probability statistics developed in 1910s -polls told us a very diff thing than what we thought about americans and gov -Americans don't know very much about politics -Americans are not very interested in politics -Americans rely on broad and general attitudes and predispositions to make sense of politics

legal constraints for third parties

-constitutional barriers in place: •Plurality system •Electoral college •Ballot access laws •Campaign finance laws -in order for third party success, all of these need to change

C

-costs of voting -something you have to forego in order to vote

sociological model

-developed by berelson, lazarsfeld, and mcphee in 1940s -Extent to which mass publics are persuadable by anybody in power really -published "voting" -expected that campaigns would persuade people -held panel studies •Group based model -How people get info is nestled in group context

social psychological model

-developed by campbell, converse, miller, and stokes in 1950s -published "the american voter" •Relies on what we call large n(people) studies in 1952 and 1956 elections •Developed large scale "national" surveys •Took all survey data and used it as basis for testing theories they had developed observing patterns in the data •Wanted to know what is party, how do we understand it, why do we vote •This is what the people do when voting

rational choice model

-developed by downs w riker and axelrod -published "economic theory of democracy" -what economists think happen when people vote -very simple assumptions -Voters are looking to maximize their utility (get most bang for their buck) -proximity voting -directional voting

decay of democratic party in texas

-due to dissimilar interest within the party -begins after new deal and world war II with eisenhower, kennedy, and johnson -Downward spiral in terms of ability to stay together and hold power in state of texas -liberal faction suffered two bitter defeats -leads to rise of rep party

limitations of the god strategy

-evidence it doesnt work w everyone •As whites become more religiously conservative, the probability of them stating that the rep party is more concerned with predicting religious values stays around the same for all groups •As blacks become more religiously conservative, the probability of them stating that the rep party is more concerned with predicting religious values decreases •95-42% -african americans dont buy in to god strategy (blacks become much more liberal on social issues if god strategy is used on them) -may be off putting to some voters and actually hurt the candidate -people can believe the candidate is insincere which hurts the candidate

what are campaigns like

-expensive -long -instrumental -negative

Ma and Pa Ferguson

-governors of dem party (liberal wing) in texas -pa was impeached bc he wouldn't give UT funding -were against prohibition and the klan -caused liberal wing to suffer losses bc conservative wing was concerned about welfare support as an intrusion of gov in people's life

debates

-have little affect on fundamental structure of recent presidential races -only one campaign where debate may have made a serious difference which is 2000 election -in every other case, candidate that led going into the debates wound up winning on Election Day

other models that play off rational choice model

-heuristics -reasoning voter -aggregate rationality -issue ownership

rsosenstone, behr and lazarus "third parties in america"

-highlight variety of things that affect third parties and explain why an indiv would vote for them -legal contraints, handicaps

coverage of campaigns

-horse-race (whos leading whos not) •Spend less time talking on policy and more so on status •Moves made in game opposed to actual outcome •Consumers are more likely to tap in if they see it as some type of competition •In final month competitive game goes down with substantive content going up, but comp is still close to half

party organization

-how parties organize and mobilize the electorate "po"

handicaps

-how public and media treat third parties -suffer from resources (hard to gain support/funds) -unqualified and unknown candidates (97.2% of major party candidates held some sort of status in gov vs less than 20% in minor parties) -negative attitudes toward minor parties -cohabitation -de-legitimizing tactics (majority parties pull dirty tricks on minor parties)

heuristics

-idea by lupia mccubbins -mental shortcuts •Ways of taking little cues to figure out what's going on •As long as concepts such as reputation, party, and ideology are useful markers, they can convey a lot of information to people without knowing the details •Way of saying people don't have to be fully informed but can take cues and make pretty good guess on where the person is or cues on who that person is based on who you get information from

political efficacy

-idea that you impact final result, in this case the election •Hope that it can help people better articulate how they think about •Education fosters a sense of it •Idea that if I speak up, I can do something •People become more informed and active if they think their voice matters

how do we measure public opinion?

-in order of least to most important: •Man-in-street interviews •Focus groups •Non-scientific polls •Probability samples

important factors of campaigns

-incumbency matters -party id matters -people dont pay much attention to campaigns -news media doesnt matter as much as you might think -money matters

heuristics model

-kahneman and tversky •Argue voters rely on shortcuts to reach a voting decision •Rely on parties rather than learn about specific issues of politicians •Develop attachment to a political party because that allows to make rational calculations or mimic them •End up choosing "correct" candidate •Rationality at a lower level than proximity or directional but still there

voter turnout over the years

-large spike in 1820s and 30s after introduction of two-party system -declines into 1920s after laws passed -steady decline from 1960-96

party in gov

-largely speaking about party in the congress/state legislatures "pig"

1960s issues

-led to more balance between the parties' domination •Issues of race and social order are believed to cross cut the old system •Southern coalition gets complicated •Democratic party loses a lot of support and republicans become more attractive to these voters •People who were already committed to democratic party become even more committed •Democratic party loses its power but republicans don't gain too much to throw the parties off balance

voter turnout in the US

-low compared to other countries -varied over time -saw tooth pattern between presidential (high) and midterm (low) elections -demographic factors affect rates

aggregate rationality model

-lupia and mccubins •Voters come to rational decisions even though many of them don't have information to do so •If 20% of pop is irrational, Lupia and McCubins argue that if that's true, their preferences are most likely randomly distributed, so the 80% of the pop that makes rational decisions is going to be driving the elections which leads to electric being rational •If theres some irrationality, it ought to be randomly distributed such that true preferences of rational voters will still determine the election

political party

-many different definitions but all with the same idea •Everybody agrees party needs to be an organization of some part •No requirement for how this organization is made •Parties uniquely contest elections, run candidates in their own name with an eye to winning elections or gaining power

hope (soto)

-motivator •Works depending on the context •Early 2000s -Context was 9/11 and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq -Got tired of feeling of anxiety -Obama was attuned to this and put forward message of hope that worked well (2008)

attitudes on foreign policy

-neither liberal or conservative, dependent on partisanship of the president -depends on circumstances at the boarder

what controls the nomination process

-news media -decide whom to cover and whom to ignore Cover candidates that they see as having experience, having money or ability to raise it, and that have an organization behind them

findings of social psychological model

-og conceptualization of party ID -Voters develop a psychological attachment to one of the parties. -Party dictates vote choice, not issues. -you develop your attitude toward politics same way as any other one and early on -exposure to socializing agents -funnel model

endogenuity of parties

-parties are a reflection of indiv that make up the party -coalitions within the party shape what the party does -understanding the members lets us understand what needs to be done -as people's views change, the parties change

party in electorate

-party ID -Is it the case that voters identify themselves as rep or dem? -is this identity is meaningful (does it structure your voting behavior and public opinion) "pie"

where do political attitudes come from?

-party id (shaped by parents) -education -ideology (shaped by parents) -profession -race/ethnicity -religion -income -geography

party identification and turnout and voter preference

-party identity is highly correlated with turnout and voter preference -partisans are much more likely to vote and they vote for their party's candidate -independents do not vote as much -we typically vote for our party regardless of the candidate themselves

paradox of turnout

-people are confused by the low turnout of this period due to these reasons: 1.Education levels increased dramatically. 2.Civil rights legislation ended Jim Crow laws in the South. 3.Registration requirements were eased (Motor Voter Laws, Same-Day registration). Convenience voting increased.

trustee

-person who listens to public opinion and then decides what they think is best

issue ownership model

-petrocik •Candidates don't fight over positions on issues but rather which issues are the ones you should be thinking about •Parties have different credibilities on different issues •Those credibilities are routed in the parties coalitions and the people in the party •Non-random •Candidates try to convince voters that issues that are important to them are the issues you should vote for •If you win debate over agenda, you will win the election •juxtaposed with proximity -Not about positioning on issue but defining the agenda

sources of political opinion

-political socialization -life experiences and public opinion

non-scientific polls

-polls on websites -not well represented across population

reasoning voter model

-popkin •Voters use low (gut) level reasoning to arrive at correct candidate choice •For ex if candidate does something to offend you or your culture in whatever way, you will most likely not want to vote for them and vice versa •Rationality at a lower level than proximity or directional but still there

reward

-positive: Suggests that you're trying to promote a particular behavior -negative: Trying to increase a behavior to get you to behave a certain way through negative ways (ex: hitting you to achieve it)

p

-probability of vote "mattering" -is your vote the deciding vote? •If you choose not to vote and the candidate loses by one vote, your vote would've forced a tie •If you choose not to vote and the candidate ties, your vote would've been the winning vote

voting is illogical

-probability of your vote mattering is virtually 0 -this leave you to only the cost which means the R will always be less than 0 -downs argues that voter turnout is too high considering it seems illogical

probability sample

-randomly select sample to construct an estimate of the underlying distribution of opinion on some issue -the more an opinion exists in the particular population, the more likely you are to uncover it when you sample repeatedly

V.O. Key's take on the southern dem

-rep in texas vote in dem primaries to have a voice in matters but when presidential election rolls around they vote for rep nominee -"locally he is a dem, nationally he is a rep"

suffrage and franchise

-right to vote -disenfranchisement is taking away right to vote -has expanded slowly throughout nations history

party identification scale

-scale of party identification in americans -as of 2016: 45% dem and 32% rep -how many independents depends on how you define independents -leaners still usually vote for the party they lean toward

arguments for campaigns mattering

-spending seems to affect performance *after controlling for incumbency and competitiveness -more personalized outreach seems to matter *door-to-door contacting, contact from friends -enormous variation in resources in non-presidential races

1912 election

-split in rep party over business interest and progressive interest -taft (business) vs roosevelt (progressive) vs wilson (dem) -rep vs progressive vs dem -dem wins bc progressive takes a lot of votes away from rep party

social learning theory

-states that attitudes tend to be learned -main theory for party alignment according to political scientists -core concepts 1. instrumental motivation 2. reward 3. punishment 4. generalization 5. discrimination

plurality systems

-systems of voting in which the person w the most votes wins, not the majority -first past the post -single non-transferable vote -limited vote -cumulative vote

problem of multiple principles

-the agent (person that carries something out) with multiple principals (directs agent) •Hard to figure out what exactly am I trying to do and what the people want •Have principals that fluctuate •People are uninformed •All make it hard for politicians to know what they people want

question wording

-the way the question is worded -Can lead to getting certain responses

arguments against campaigns mattering

-there are other factors that influence voters and outcomes (incumbency, party id, state of the economy, macro-trends) -the public doesnt pay enough attention to politics for campaigns to be determinative -there is often an equality of resources and expertise (higher up candidates generally have no issue getting money and resources)

difficulties to correct misinformation

-very difficult to correct and get people to change the way they think •Even if people are exposed to a correction, they still believe in conspiracy -This is bc it provides a causal effect of what has happened and its very difficult to replace that with an alternative causal account •Bc people can update factual info but not causal inference

vp picks

-very important •geography used to be case in vp selection but recently not as important •More focus on policy and opinions

cumulative vote

-voter has some # of votes less than or equal to seats available -must vote for everything -votes for at least more than 1 seat -can pool your votes to vote for one candidate multiple times or spread them out -able to show level of intensity of support for a candidate -used by Illinois until 1980 -used by civil rights groups in hopes to let marginalized orgs get elected

limited vote

-voter has some # of votes less than seats available -must vote for everything -votes for however many seats there are -multiple seats within the district -cannot pool your votes, can only vote for each candidate once -ex: ireland -if your preferred candidate is doing much than your other one you should only vote for your preferred

do members of the US congress vote with their party most of the time?

-yes!!! -50-100% vote with their party over the years -1970s had low percentage due to nixon passing things that crossed party lines -at 90% now since 1990s -party is HUGELY predictive of how you're going to vote

does party structure politics and voting in a meaningful way for voters?

-yes!!! -measured through: -direction--"do you think of yourself as a rep, dem, or neither?" -intensity--if they express identification "do you think of yourself as a strong or not so strong rep/dem?"; if they don't "do you lean more towards rep or dem?"

do parties contact and mobilize voters?

-yes!!! -not a lot of difference between the parties -numbers were fairly flat from 50s to 90s -huge spike and now parties are contacting like crazy -2016 did less contacting that 2012, but unsure of what will happen in 2020 -Parties are strong but not the dominant organizational force bc of interest groups and social movements and all that jazz

does party leadership matter?

-yes!!! -structures the behaviors of those in congress -4 main facets of importance 1. agenda control 2. committee assignments 3. campaign contributions and fundraising 4. encouraging/discouraging primary election challenges

do parties raise money and enlist volunteers?

-yes!!!! -in 2018, dem party spent 495mil and raised 603mil; rep party spent 520mil and raised 710mil -they capture volunteers and put them to work

reasons for political participation

1. capacity 2. motivation 3. networks of recruitment

3 key aspects of american political culture

1. individualism 2. equality 3. limited gov •By understanding these we can better understand how americans think about and respond to issues

funnel model

1. learn party id from parents and socialization. form a psychological attachment to this party 2. partisanship shapes development of your attitudes 3. bc you like your party you adopt its positions 4. your underlying attitudes are reflected in your positions on the six attitudinal dimensions

sources of polling error

1. measurable -sample size -response bias/response rates 2. unmeasurable -question wording -response options -question order -interviewer effects

three components of party according to V.O. Key

1. party in gov 2. party in electorate 3. party organization

notable third party candidates

1. strom thurman 2. george wallace 3. ross perot •Each were able to be successful bc they focused on the 5 reasons people vote for third parties

six attitudinal dimensions

1. the personal attributes of the Democratic candidate (Stevenson), 2. the personal attributes of the Republican (Eisenhower), 3. the groups involved in politics and the questions of group interest affecting them, 4. the issues of domestic policy, 5. the issues of foreign policy, 6. and the comparative record of the two parties in managing the affairs of government. -these issue positions are the proximal cause of your voting decision -predict voting decisions with 87% accuracy (better than asking voters who they intend to vote for)

basic hypotheses of 2020

1.Competitive distribution of the vote (equal rep and dem, voter turnout is important) 2.Mixed economic performance (good unemployment and economic growth from trump but other factors bring support down) 3.Low presidential approval (9.1 points more for disapproval, in middle range so we arent sure) 4.Higher turnout

mobilize the base

1.Direct Mail 2.Phone Calls 3.Emails 4.Social Media 5.In-person Contacting

why do people vote for third parties?

1.Major Party Deterioration 2.Neglected Issues 3.Neglected Preferences 4.Unacceptable Major Party Candidates 5.Attractive Minor Party Candidates

what are the goals of campaigns

1.Mobilize the base 2.Persuade swing voters *wont waste time campaigning to people they have no chance of winning

psychological factors that affect turnout

1.Political efficacy (internal and external; higher efficacy people more likely to vote) 2.Interest/Engagement (more interested/engaged more likely to vote) 3.Partisanship (more likely to vote if you identify w a party)

institutional factors that affect turnout

1.Registration requirement (two-step process) 2.Timing of elections (tues in nov during work hours) 3.Frequency of elections (very often) 4.Location/Convenience of polling places (move around often) 5.Complexity of ballot (so much going on, so many options)

theories of voting

1.Sociological Model (Columbia Model) 2.Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model) 3.Rational Choice Model (Rochester Model) *chronological

different types of contests

1.Statewide Conventions 2.Caucuses 3.Primaries -Closed primaries -Semi-open primaries -Open primaries -Blanket/Jungle primaries

voting rights

1.Suffrage and Franchise 2.15th Amendment 3.19th Amendment 4.23rd Amendment 5.24th Amendment 6.26th Amendment

persuade swing voters

1.TV Ads 2.Radio Ads 3.Direct Mail 4.Phone Calls 5.Social Media 6.In-person Contacting -content is underlying -tv and radio arent main outreach efforts

incumbency matters

95% house and 90% senate incumbents who run for reelection, win •Tend to vote for people we know rather than don't know •Easier to raise money when youre already in congress •Easy to take credit for congressional works if already in it

general election context

Goal is to amass a majority of electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes available (states get a total equaling their representatives plus their senators), meaning 270 electoral votes wins the White House

what affects turnout

Institutional Factors psychological factors

calculus of voting acc to downs

R = pB - C -idea from Anthony Downs -wanted to understand why people vote and choose not to vote

calculus of voting acc to riker and ordeshook

R = pB - C + D D: psychological benefit, citizen duty, goodwill feeling -intangible reward -propulsive incentive (feel better about yourself after voting) -solidarity incentive (i voted sticker) -as long as psychological benefit is greater than the cost, we see people turning out to vote

social welfare issues

basic questions of the appropriate level of taxation and spending, as well as support for funding programs on things like education, the environment, anti-poverty programs, energy, etc.

15th amendment

black men can vote

delegate

person that listens to the public to do whatever they want

political participation

very few americans do nuts and bolts of participation at a high end level

no party in primary or caucus

voters rely on 1. Name recognition (more willing to vote for known) 2. Ideology (dominated by people w strong opinions) 3. Viability 4. Electability

26th amendment

voting age of 18

negative attitude toward third parties

•"fringe vote" "throwing your vote away" •Seen as outliers •Further reinforce people not being willing to support third parties •Self-fulfilling prophecy --If people think third party wont win they wont vote for it so third party doesn't win --Contribute to the problem

republican presence in texas gov

•1927-1951: no republican presence in Texas' legislature •For more than a century there weren't any republicans in the governor's house •Republican dominance we talk about now is fairly new •As members change, parties change •Labels may have stayed the same but the parties changed bc the people changed

social networks

•7 people you talked w consistently over a givenweek •Very few people paid attention but one or two were styled as opinion leaders •Interested in politics and would drive whatever political conversation there was •Tended to be homogenous •Subtle opinion leadership activated partisanship in other people

house of rep going into 2020

•A few empty seats •Rep need to pick up 21 seats •3 seats that are rep that could be dem •31 seats that are dem that could become rep -Targets for rep to regain majority

conspiracy theories in texas

•A lot of them bc they do not like high level of gov •Ex: greg abbott directed US Texas guard to monitor the activities of the US military during a training exercise in several southwestern states •Fear was attempt on part of Obama administration to take guns away and arrest people -Did this to make sure nothing bad was happening

frustrating criticisms about polling (blank)

•A poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time -Wouldn't expect attitudes of people to change over time when the ideas change •"I never get surveyed" -Just bc you aren't the one getting surveyed doesn't mean sample doesn't represent well

negative

•About defining the opposition •Defining contrast between you and your opponent •How we view candidates of our opposing views is typically negatively •Negative ads have swamped the positive ads in every campaign •Negative ads stick better in peoples heads •More substantive and associated w more engaged and supportive •Mobilizes voters to go to polls •leads to Higher levels of turnout and engagement

political participation definition

•Activity that has the intent of effect of influencing government action, either directly by affecting the making or implementation of public policy, or indirectly by influencing the selection of people who make these policies •Much more than voting and running for office •Variety of activities people engage in to influence outcomes of public policy •Voting is main one but others include letters, protest, convincing somebody to vote etc -critical in democratic society

public opinion

•Aggregation of peoples views about issues, situations, and public figures •Bringing people together •About what a group of people think

ballot access laws

•All candidates are on the ballots for major parties -For minor parties the candidate has to go to each state to get themselves on the ballot and requirements differ state to state

blanket primaries

•All delegates, both rep and dem are listed on the ballot and you choose just one delegate •Rep and dem with most votes in that contest become the nominees

jungle primaries

•All delegates, both rep and dem are listed on the ballot and you choose just one delegate •Top two, regardless of party, become the nominees •Ex; california

open primaries

•Allowed to vote in any primary you choose •Don't register by party •Ex: Texas •If there is a runoff election (if top delegate doesn't get more than 50% of votes), top 2 delegates participate in a runoff election 6 weeks later -If this happens only the people that voted in the original primary can vote during this election~12 •Tend to be in northern and western states

party purpose: solving collective action problem for office-seeking politicians

•Allows people to not engage in something and still be involved in it •Jackson party •Political party developed and had people in county level positions •Incentivize: if ____ wins we will give you a position

felony disenfranchisment

•Almost all states practice some sort of felony disenfranchisement -Some have restrictions on all felons -Some have short time periods •Large number of Americans are not allowed to vote due to this •Decreases voter population

sequential runoff

•Alternative with fewest votes is eliminated and balloting repeated -elimination procedure continues until one alternative remains -american idol •Multiple stages •More time and more thinking

simple plurality

•Alternative with most votes wins •US elections •Quick and done •Saves time

assumptions of public opinion (conventional wisdom)

•Americans are interested, engaged, and attentive to politics and public affairs (de Tocqueville) •Americans know the basic facts concerning American politics •Americans listen to public officials and candidates, understand their issue and policy positions, and hold them accountable for their performance

primary behavior

•Appeal to strong partisans •Appeal to primary voters (usually partisans)

easy issues

•Argue that voting on these issues deals with going with your gut •Something that has been on agenda for long period of time so you know immediately when youre going to support it •Public has a lot easier time forming opinions and making decisions about it and processing these issues

hard issues

•Argue that voting on these issues deals with mental calculus •Sit and think about issues and make decisions based on the facts •Requires a lot more detail and thought

limited government

•Argues against a strong central gov and wishes to bound the size in scope of gov •Trying to make sure we don't have big gov •Key aspect of American public opinion •Want as much distance from the people and the gov as possible -whites are way more likely to support than blacks and latinos -support can be due to conspiracy theories

Literalism Coefficient given Race on Welfare Spending, Support for Universal Health Care and Identifying as Conservative

•As blacks become more religiously conservative they become much more liberal on many social policies esp welfare policies •Blacks' religiously conservative ideas does not translate into them being more conservative politically

morality politics

•Bell weather issues •Make sure they are very supportive of religious freedoms and traditionalism •Engaging and talking about moral behavior

persuadable voter

•Book that focuses on Grit and its relationship with voters •Lack of voting in young people didn't line up with social media, polls, and conversations •Tried to figure out what explains the gap between what appears to be high levels of political motivation and low levels of turnout -found that voter turnout in young people is low most likely due to rules of the game, distractions, and busy schedules -correlation between those who have strong grit and perseverance are more likely to vote (emphasizes barriers to participation in voting)

god strategy in action

•Bush said his favorite philosopher was Jesus -Very strong message of queuing people to know he was religious •Atheist are 2 points below Muslims in terms of if people would vote for them for president •Religion is extremely important in America for politics •Al gore said he was a born-again citizen and asked WWJD

focus groups

•Businesses would convene small groups (6-20) •Recruit them on some particular characteristic •Tend to do interest groups on people that have no preference •Groups on people you think will be consequential to the election •Group of people that you identify bc youre interested in learning their opinions about politics and using that to craft appeals and interest your focus groups •Routinely used in political campaigns

expensive

•Campaigns are expensive in comparison to other countries •Presidential campaigns have stayed around the same price •Congressional campaigns are becoming extremely expensive •Only 1 country exceeds US on cost of campaigns (japan) •Great britain only spends thousands of pounds

what do campaigns do (soto)

•Campaigns were thought to not matter for a long time but over last couple of decades they matter -A ton of money spent on them -Research that proves this -Address heart and mind •Speak about the issues but bring in the heart -Who do you want to bring nation together? To show your •independents in middle get most attention bc they can be swayed -Most apt to receive message of heart and mind

attractive minor party candidates

•Candidate of third party has some level of status and legitimacy •Greater legitimacy the greater the chance they will be voted for •Attractive well-established candidates are rare for third parties though

political priest

•Candidate speaks language of the faithful •Use religious cues •Blessed, faith, heavenly, site scripture, religious references •People are more open to this and more likely to listen to this •In comparison to other countries, americans are really religious •Extremely important

news media doesnt matter as much as you might think

•Candidates who are winning tend to get more media coverage •Candidates who are losing don't get much media coverage •Media react to what they see in polls and what theyre getting from the public

importance of debates

•Candidates who have mistakes or really good things tend to do very well •Debate moments have become increasingly importsant •Set tone •Separate candidates •Give media something to talk about and people to build basis on

broader social culture of churches

•Church attracts people with similar experiences in life which may lead congregates to develop a common outlook on politics and social issues •Congregation with people that meet over and over and talk about the same things leads to them developing a shared outlook on the world •One congregation could be liberal or more conservative even in same denomination bc nature is reflective on the experiences of the congregation •People within different congregations develop different outlooks bc their members have different experiences

caucuses

•Closed party affairs •Iowa caucuses -Precinct caucuses -State that people register by party -Can only participate in the caucus of the party you are registered under •Held often after hours on weeknights •High end affairs •Fairly exclusive •Committed partisans, older people are more likely to go to them •Biases •Minority with respect to contests that exist nationwide •Only ~9 states had these in 2016

churches and networks of recruitment

•Communicate political activity as a norm •Encourage political knowledge and skills and place them in political environment •Those who go to churches are more likely to participate than those who don't go to church •Those who go to political churches are even more so likely to vote •People meet regularly so trust is gained •Trained people to encourage people to participate outside of the church

voting by berelson, lazarsfeld, and mcphee

•Community studies •Wanted to test extent to which people were persuaded by political propaganda, especially mass media •Is this a good way for candidates to try and gain support?

democratic state convention (texas)

•Conservative dem break off to form anti Roosevelt Texas regulars and take power •State dem party endorsed Eisenhower, the republican candidate •Liberals leave the party and form democrats of Texas for refuge of liberal democrats (lbj being on jfks ticket in 1960 brought liberals back into fold and slowed down decay) -liberal wing takes over party in 1976 which causes cons dems to move into rep party

public opinion in democracy

•Core aspect of democracy •If we don't understand what the people thinking, we cant have a democracy •Under what conditions do politicians respond to the public •They are paying attention and are trying to decipher what people want •Politicians behave as both a trustee and delegate off and on, but usually when public opinion is well defined, they are more likely to behave as a delegate

cost of voting

•Cost that has to be given up or paid in order to receive •Waiting in line •Could be doing something else •Having to register •Driving there •Voter id laws •Information gathering •Figuring out who the candidates are

religion as a socializing agent

•David leege's idea •Churches inculcate beliefs and shape world views •Religious institutions play a role in how people see the world; how they ought to behave and how they shouldn't behave

democratic monopoly in texas

•Democratic party was in power before civil war but were opposed to reconstruction which allowed for republicans to gain control •Republican party doesn't organize until 1857 --Held power during reconstruction --Doesn't win statewide election until 1961 •Democratic party had monopoly but there was a great deal of infighting

Convention bounce

•Difference in support before and after convention

democratic infighting (texas)

•Dissimilar interests within the party •People realized that nobody could win as a republican so they started identifying as a democrat

criticisms of sociological model

•Doesn't have much room for political issues, just about groups, doesn't matter who the candidates are •Doesn't do a good job explaining changes or differences in outcomes across elections •Doesn't have psychological model (Why would people rely on a group to develop an opinion in respects to voting)

borda count

•Each indiv ranks the options by their preference •Each rank has different weight -alt with largest sum of points wins -can end up w a tie score and in that case you dont get a clear winner •Way they vote for Heisman trophy •Requires a lot of calculations in head and more effort from voter •Once you go past about top 5, rankings don't really matter besides whats at the very bottom

2012 and the "god squad"

•Each of these four individuals said god told them they would become president or that they should run for president •None of them won but idea is they were fulfilling a divine purpose •Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't

levels of conceptualization

•Extent to which people use ideological language to explain their opinions and attitudes •Can you tell me something you like about the _____ party •Answer to this leads that person to be categorized in one of five categories of decreasing ideology 1. ideologues 2. near ideologues 3. group interest 4. nature of the times 5. no issue content -tend to be low (4% ideologues, 12% near, 45%, 22%, 18% in 1952 and 1956)

internal political efficacy

•Extent to which you Believe you are cognitively capable for understanding politics

external efficacy

•Extent to which you believe the system is responsive to your input

electability

•Extent to which you can win general election •Candidates that are perceived as having a chance to win the election tend to do better

interviewer effects

•Face and demeanor of interviewer can reflect on how people respond to interviewers

political machines

•Facilitate corruption and kickbacks •Example of mass politics, mobilizes people to some policy effect •Only existed in a few geographic places for short periods of time

emotions in politics

•Fear -Want to learn more •Anxiety -Pay attention more •Anger -Gets people out to vote -Makes them feel more efficacious -Discounting risks when angry •Emotional appeals have longer lasting effects and mobilize base in uncommitted voters •Emotional appeals get greater media attention •If you can get people to feel good about you and scared about everybody else, that helps you out

sequential nomination campaign

•February contests marked by black •New jersey hasn't set date •Red states go in march •Dc is allowed to vote in nomination process •Powdered blue states in April •Grey states in may •Dark blue in June •Dashed states mean no primary vote •Havent set when theyre holding contests or if theyre going to hold

latinos low voter turnout (soto)

•Fewer resources you have the less likely you are to turnout •Latinos tend to be poorer w less education •Sense of apathy •Go more heavily to dem party •Both parties aren't fighting for them as much anymore so there is less of a reason to appeal to them •Mobilization is needed as a subsidy -We need to push them even harder bc theyre less likely to turnout in the first place

1992 election for pres clinton

•Figured out why Clinton was doing so bad in the polls •People didn't know very much about Clinton, so Clinton campaign made ads to tell Clinton's story •Reflective of what they found in interest group

james steven hogg

•First liberal dem to serve as gov of Texas •Anti monopoly and anti railroad policies •Way of understanding where either wing stood during this time period

lucius barker

•Former president of American political science association -extremely knowledgable in politics •Took literacy test in Louisiana •Scholar of constitutional law •Did not pass the test •Proved that test was messed up

tolkville

•Frenchman travelling in US in 18teens that studied americans and gov Found US was in stark contrast with rudimentary democrac

23rd amendment

•Gave DC residents right to vote for president so they were granted electors •Electoral college •538 votes •House + senate members (535) •3 electors to dc

who believes in conspiracy theories

•Half of Americans believe in at least one conspiracy theory •Those who are attractive to melodramatic narratives •Interpret history as good vs evil •Those with Manichean ideals

the god strategy

•How elites use religious rhetoric to try to gain voters (presidential candidates esp) •Both dem and rep use this strategy but rep are more successful 1.Political Priest 2.Fusing God and Country 3.Embracing Religious Symbols 4.Morality Politics

response options

•How many/what are the options? •Can influence results and introduce error, don't know how these things are influencing distortion

political socialization

•How people come to understand things •End result of all processes by which individuals form their beliefs and values in their homes churches schools work places •All play role in developing your opinion of things •experiences are critical for helping us understand how people come to understand the world and make decisions about candidates and policies

man-in-street interviews

•Idea that if you walk around and ask people questions you will get general knowledge about how the people think about politics

directional voting

•If voter is slightly left of center, they will still vote for democrat regardless of distance •What matters to the voter is that you are on the CORRECT side of the issue, not how close you are to them

party purpose: solving social choice problem for office seeking politicians

•If you go to US congress, you would notice that without political parties there is no equilibrium point with respect to public policies •Someone can come along and introduce another element to that issue or another issue which can undo the majority coalition (Leads to cycling) •Parties uniquely allow party leaders to discipline members and maintain majority coalitions of its members Tries to fix problem of cycling issues

major party deterioration

•Indiv feel they aren't represented by their party so they vote for third party •Seen as vote against the two other parties

motivation

•Individual rewards for voting •Tangible and intangible •Psychic benefit of voting (Idea of feeling good about yourself bc you went out and participated) •Have skills to carry it out and motivation to do it

young voters (hillygus)

•Individuals that start voting early end up voting later in time •Important what they are doing w respect to voting rn •We need to focus on actual process of turnout •Misperception among younger people about what to know to be qualified to vote •View lack of information that they shouldn't vote •55% of college students made a mistake filling out voting ballots •Need to provide them with the right type of info of what it is to vote and how

values

•Key role in shaping how people think about issues •become beliefs that weigh down people's opinions and from these people make their decisions •Conception of the desirable, not something desired •Provide motivation to behave in a certain way •Allows us to figure out how to judge individuals •Play central role in who you are, how you ought to behave, and the attitudes you express •Not concrete

people dont pay much attention to campaigns

•Lack of attention gives incumbents more of an advantage •Candidates you know have power over those you don't

amigo politics *IMPORTANT*

•Latino targeting movement •2000 election -GW Bush knew latino community very well bc of background in Texas -3 to 1 targeting score to latinos in comparison to gore •Issues that pertained to latinos (immigration, health care, education) •Delivery of message •Spanish language ads and endorsers •Bilingual ads

proximity voting

•Left right dimension, summary issue dimension •Distance between you and democrat and you and republican •Less distance from their point of view is usually where their vote goes •Knowing where you are and where the candidates are on scale of liberal to conservative

wings within the democratic party (texas)

•Liberal (farmers) •Conservative (corporations--Take power after reconstruction) •central part of fighting within democratic party in Texas for next century or so

campaign finance laws

•Limits on how much an individual can contribute

churches and capacity

•Lowers cost of participation bc they can lower information and participation costs •People you talk to on regular basis •Let you know here is whats going on and heres what you can do

gender differences (philpot)

•Magnitude is same amongst blacks and whites •Black men 86% dem black women almost 100% •Gender gap lessened during Obama years but is back •Black women by far out participate black men in voting

felony disenfranchisement across US

•Maine and Vermont can vote in prison •Iowa and Kentucky all felons are permanently disenfranchised •Push to try to get rid of/change disenfranchisement laws •Racial history of disenfranchisement laws pushes us to overturn them

post-reconstruction and felony disenfranchisement

•Many southern states were trying to find ways to reduce level of black voter turnout, so they began to make these laws •Laws included felons that committed crimes that blacks tended to commit (burglary, theft, arsin) and not those that were more common w whites •Didn't include murder and assault •Been a lot of cases trying to fight disenfranchisement, but supreme court has ruled against most of them until hunter v underwood

alienation

•May lose base of party bc they've moved so far toward median voter •Attempt to avoid this by moving away from the median voter

TV advertising

•Measures of advertising reach •Rating points •Translates into avg of how many views of ads seen by the voter •Trump didn't do conventional advertising •Tv and media markets are important component to advertising

what do median voters actually do

•Median voter did not seem to dictate their policy stances, it was more the median member of their party (q1 and q3)

abstention

•Median voter thinks both guys are perfect •Bc of this why should I turnout and make a decision •Have to pull median voter a certain way

neglected issues

•Minor Party usually started because party youre apart of does not talk about something that is important to you •Third parties emerge that are focused on one particular issue bc the other two aren't focusing on it •Party is there to press the issue

long

•More than a year out there are already 18 candidates that have declared their run •Day after 2016 election, people start talking about 2020

political knowledge and public opinion

•Most citizens are not well informed •Civil knowledge is raw material citizens use to make decisions •If people don't fully understand what is at stake, they can not fully make decisions •People cannot convince other people to follow what they believe in if they don't fully believe in it themselves •This causes issues in democracy bc it leads to false/lack of information

plurality system

•Most votes wins, not majority •Creates incentives for major parties to absorb smaller parties

fear (soto)

•Motivating factor, want to cope with it, want to do something about it •2004 campaign -Gw bush -Terrorist attack, we need to be careful -Talked about issue of terrorism which elicited fear -best emotion to use in campaigns

attempts to decrease the cost of voting

•Motor voter law -If you move to a different state, when you get your license of the new state you can also register to vote •Help America vote act -Replace outdate technology -Make it easier when you vote •Early voting •Voting by mail

low voter turnout groups (soto)

•Need to tailor what and how you say to that demographic if you want to truly get their attention •Get rid of clutter of other issues

equality

•No individual is inherently superior to another •Trying to create an equal society •Americans aren't as supportive of reducing inequality, but equality plays a big role in how Americans think about issues •Black people are more supportive of equality than whites and latinos

problems of focus groups

•Not random •Point is to make sure everybody has the opportunity and comfort to talk about their opinion •More interested in vertical information -Can plum people a little more (sway opinions) •Somewhat expensive •People are unpredictable

why weren't blacks voting?

•Number of laws that discriminated against them -Poll taxes -Literacy tests --Had to have some info to vote --Whites were asked really easy questions while blacks were given extremely hard, stupid questions -White primaries

party id acc to hillygus

•One piece of info needed to predict how people will vote •Relatively stable so doesn't tell us differences across elections •Can predict vast majority but doesn't give us sufficient explanation of changes

life experiences and public opinion

•Ongoing process that changes from experiences •Different people are socialized differently •Outcome of experiences that we have and as new experiences come about we should expect to see a change in public opinion •Where you stand on an issue depends on where you sit Aggregation of our experiences that play out when we express our opinion

closed primaries

•Only registrants of political party are allowed to participate •Ex: ohio •Most common ~30

public opinion according to V.O. Key

•Opinions held by private persons which gov find it prudent to heed •When talking about public opinion, there are people that may be more important than others and that people will listen to and follow what these individuals are saying

party images (philpot)

•Org in politics whose sole purpose is to gain power •History of tension between southern whites and blacks to msintain/make a coalition •Parties have developed differences between racial groups •Republican party is known for "manly issues" crime war defense •dem party is known for softer issues education social spending and more open to diverse constituencies •Stereotype for what two parties stand for •Sometimes these are malleable sometimes they are fixed •We know since 1850 or so where the parties stand on race

24th amendment

•Outlawed poll taxes •No longer have to pay to vote

party purpose: mechanism for organizing and communicating with voters

•Parties serve purpose of connecting voters and elites •Connection point/political parties is essential for American democratic functioning throughout history

difference between parties and interest groups

•Parties uniquely run candidates in their own name with the idea of gaining power

committee assignments

•Party leadership appoint committees -loyalists get rewarded -raising funds to reelection

encouraging/discouraging primary election challenges

•Party leadership can encourage or discourage other actors from challenging you when you're running for reelection

networks of recruitment

•People are more likely to participate when asked •Decrease in turn out when parties weren't contacting people to get them to vote •Important to single people out, they are more likely to respond and participate

statewide conventions

•People are officially designated as delegates to go to national election •Not a lot of these anymore that determine delegates

instrumental motivation

•People are rational actors motivated by instrumental concerns •Trying to get most bang for your buck, most good for least effort •People are very economic

citizen duty

•People believe that they are required to be engaged and informed and by doing so they think this is their duty as a citizen •Due to this people have much more informed opinions and being more likely to express opinions •Democratic society

voter turnout by socioeconomic groups

•People who make more money turnout more than those who don't •People with more education turn out more than those who don't •People that are married turnout more than those who aren't •Older people turnout more than younger (except the 75+ age) •Blacks and whites turnout more than Hispanics and Asians •Women turnout slightly more than men

party conventions

•Period in which you accept nomination and pivot toward general election •Where candidates were •Almost always walk out of convention better off than when you walked in •Conventions are very important for a successful candidate later on

general election behavior

•Pivot and move closer to median voter bc they are most important at this time •Partisan language will decrease and attempt to appeal to the fringe voter

instrumental

•Point of running in US is to win •In some systems there is an emphasis on policy advancement •15 points more votes for instrumental ideas •See candidates take positions that will give them best opportunity to win

pros of polling (blank)

•Polling can provide us w attitudes of citizenry as a whole •Public opinion brings in ALL people •Public opinion seen through polling can cause politicians to listen •Public opinion is limited when it comes to civil rights and liberties

attitudes on social welfare

•Polling does have a lot of problems however the main effect is that our samples are a little overeducated but in terms of their partisanship, there is not much of an effect •Generally liberal, we like to spend money to solve problems and don't care about spending more in this case

prestigious candidates

•Prestigious increases probability that minor party will get at least 10% of vote •Critical bc 5% in one election means you can get matching funds in next election •Not that they will win election but more so that they will change the way they behave

problems of man-in-street interviews

•Problems -Not random -Don't know what systematic biases are going to exist -No proof you actually can make generalizations based on whatever pop

what do parties provide to voters and candidates?

•Provide info shortcuts for candidates and voters •Candidate can choose a party bc of ideological similarity •Candidates will choose party also bc of probability of party winning (May identify as democrat party in one issue but republican with another issue and will choose party label that helps them "win")

exposure to socializing agents

•Proximity -how close you are •Duration -How long you are exposed to them -Closer they are and longer exposure the more likely they are to have impact •Why we think parents have such a strong influence *People without parents still have a lot of impact coming in

punishment

•Punishment decreases a behavior •Action that gets kid to not engage in politics •Designed to extinguished behavior

1965 voting rights act

•Put in place to try to reduce barriers for blacks and make it easier for black to vote •Played huge role in expanding black political power and giving blacks the ability to turnout to vote -huge boom of voting after act was passed

most difficult challenge for pollers acc to josh blank

•Reaching a representative sample for your population •Driven by technology •Not everybody has access or isn't on their phone or cant talk or don't want to •Country is becoming much more diverse

ex of debate importance

•Reagan •Bush seemed to have been better off in the race •Refused to seat who Reagans invited then Reagan claps back •Reagan beats bush in that debate and in the whole election •Mondale •Using line from wendys commercial •Mondale challenges harts policies •Clinton •No idea what her stance on the issue was •After this Obama began to gain traction •Perry •Forgets third agency of government •Went from being front runner to be out of the race 6 weeks later

semi-open primaries

•Registered members and independents are allowed to vote •Ex: new Hampshire •Cant cross over party •Tend to be southern states

religion as a source of public opinion

•Religion as a socializing agent is a very important thing in the US •Shapes attitudes and socializing individuals on how the world should work -creed -culture

churches and motivation

•Religion is source of political motivation •God is with us, lets go out and do this -divine force

creed of religion

•Religious traditions many provide guidance for believers about appropriate behavior in secular realms such as politics •Certain things religious traditions talk about over and over again that can be applied to life and politics (how you believe things should work) •Overarching across different religions

governor edmund davis

•Rep who took over during reconstruction •Pushed things such as creating police force and desegregated education •Problematic bc Texas' succession was mainly to support slavery and white supremacy •was going to try to have active gov that worked w fed gov and racial equality •Represented party of Lincoln

republican L

•Republican Dominated states starting with north Dakota down to Texas over to north Carolina

super delegates

•Seated at convention by virtue of having elected office or position in democratic party •Disproportionately went for Hillary Clinton •Wont be voting in first round of 2020 election •Will be almost entirely driven by primaries

accuracy of polling (blank)

•Some are accurate and some aren't •Even more complex with polling •Depends on quality and effort people put into it •Becoming a lot more challenging -2016 election had pretty accurate polling on the national level but the state level had variability

cross-pressuring

•Some persuasion mainly associated w people who are cross-pressured by others •Person in social networks with different political orientations •Underlying partisanship activation gets reduced •Issue preferences as well -People who have distinct issue differences -Modern idea

agenda control

•Speaker of house control the agenda •Able to dictate what comes up for a vote and which issues are engaged

culture of religion

•Speaks more to local religious org and how you interact with it •Develop things such as identity, norms, and boundary maintenance •Provides a way for people to understand who they are, how they ought to behave and who is part of our group and who is not a part of our group

hunter v underwood

•State of alabama was sued •Amendments 1901 alabama state constitution -Made clear it was there to maintain white supremacy -Overturned bc they were able to show that this law was written for racial discrimination

individualism

•Stresses importance of individual being held accountable for their actions •Idea that if you work hard youll be rewarded •Something that courses throughout all of American public opinion in a value that is central to americans and how they come to understand themselves •Americans are more likely to take a strong stance on individual responsibility -no difference in support between blacks and whites

general election with strong party ideologues

•Strong party ideologues pull you away from median voter

shelby county v holder

•Supreme court ruled in 5-4 decision that the formula used for choosing which states had to do preclearance was outdated so in order for this to be passed, the choice of states must be up to date before a decision could be made

panel studies (sociological model)

•Surveys of people •Do it in April then re-interview in august then in October and after the election •Estimates of individual level movement in opinion *Nowadays we don't tend to do them due to expensiveness

embracing religious symbols

•Taking part in certain holidays •Going to church or religious services •Not just talking about it, but living it •Being actively involved •Mainstay of this

conspiracy theory

•They locate the source of unusual social and political phenomenon in unseen and malevolent forces •Interpret world in a Manichean struggle between good and evil -get at good or evil, with me or against me •Suggest that mainstream accounts of political accounts are an attempt to distract the public from the hidden source of power -elite theory, vaccinations

techniques for campaigning (soto)

•Thinks there is no substitute for personal contact "shoe leather politics" -Particularly for low level turnout groups -Less likely that an ad moves these people •Clutter -So much going on that it is hard to take it all in in the media -We are saturated -Need to supplement tech w in person campaigning -Has to be foundational from person to person contact

unacceptable major party candidates

•Third party is more likely to be voted for when both major party candidates are disliked

education and public opinion

•Those who are more educated are more likely to have higher levels of political knowledge and more likely to express their opinions due to efficacy and duty •Uneducated people have less of an access to political knowledge and have a harder time comprehending it

plurality runoff

•Top two vote getters move to a second-round -new balloting determines second-round winner by simple majority -depends on ranking where voters that did not vote for either two winners go •Vote for whats left •Two stages

candidate rhetoric

•Try to rely on emotions •Use a lot of emotional rhetoric •"I don't remember what you did but I remember how you made me feel" idea •Do this to try to get people to stick w them as they forget the facts

electoral participation

•Trying to influence who will win the election -Voting -Monetary contributions to a campaign -Volunteering in a campaign -Running for office

political culture

•Underlying Collection of beliefs and values about the justification and operations of a country's gov

is the way campaigns are covered good or bad

•Undermines political engagement and increases cynicism •Makes people feel like what I have to say doesn't matter •Stimulates the publics appeal to politics by making it more exciting •Less harmful to public morale than discussing motives •Can be seen as decreasing efficacy •Can be seen as supporting idea of elitism amongst elected officials •Can be seen as it making people more excited about it since its talked about in a simpler fashion

spacial voting theory

•Unidimensional •First past the post system •Arguments appeal to intermediate voters •Number of people on fringes is much smaller than the people in the middle •Want to capture the median voter •Parties attempt to move themselves as close to the median voter as possible while still staying true to your party

capacity

•Various forms of participation pose their own requirements •Having the resources or skills necessary to carry this out •Socioeconomic status is a big predictor of voter turn out •Education is primary predictor of turnout •Highest level of education are twice as likely as those at lowest level

churches as facilitators for political participation

•Volunteer organizations so you have a choice •They have to work to build skills of their workers •Can increase capacity •Learn skill of public speaking •Volunteer organizations teach people skills •Businesses bring people in with the skills

2018 election florida and felony disenfranchisement

•Voters went to polls and overturned disenfranchisement •Felony conviction except murder or sexual offenses •Once their time was completed they could vote •Granted 1.4 million people to vote •More than 9% of Florida's voting age population was not able to vote bc of disenfranchisement laws but now there is a boom of voters

importance of voting methods

•Voting method matters •Mathematician set up the lunch example where he could get different outcome in every voting method •Diff voting methods under diff circumstance can lead to different outcomes •Plays big role in determining who will win

vote dilution

•Way in which districts were drawn •Argued that districts were drawn in a way that if you knew you had a group or voting block that was sizable enough to have a great deal of impact you would draw district lines a certain way so their vote would not be as powerful •Tried to gerrymander blacks out of having any power within an election •Voting rights act tried to get rid of/prevent this

Correlation Between Moral Conservation and Equality Given Race

•Way that blacks translate their religion into politics is different from that of whites •As blacks become more religiously conservative, they become more supportive of welfarism which is a democratically supported topic while white counterparts become less supportive of it •As blacks support more moral traditionalism, they become more supportive of egalitarianism while white counterparts become less supportive of it

problem of proportional systems

•Well what exactly do we do question -Half of percent •Many have limit -Have to cross threshold to get a seat -Ex: Poland, Germany -Typically due to crazy parties coming about and getting barely any support but then getting a seat

fusing god and country

•Whatever America is doing to divine will •We are clearly doing what god wishes us to do •Us being special nation through gods words •Language used throughout nations history •Candidates are using this more and more by trying to link nation and opinions to higher being

discrimination

•When child learns you cant apply same behavior across the board •If one side is responded to with negative reinforcement, they learn that one is good and one is bad and thus discriminate against the bad one

generalization

•When child points to one candidate and parents say yes and child notices they get something out of parents and if kid says well the other one is good too •Trying to generalize attitude across multiple facets •"All political elites are alike, if I pay attention to them I will get a reward"

reasons to believe conventional wisdom was true

•When economy went south, incumbents lost •When times are bad, people tend to hold gov accountable •Why would you spend money on campaign if you don't care about public opinion or their votes?

convergence of parties

•When parties converge, they are more effective •Parties converge when they are able to keep dissimilar candidates out •When dissimilar candidates join, the party is more likely to diverge •When a party diverges, the party is more likely to fall apart all together (Face threat of decay)

social consequences of conspiracy theory

•When people are exposed to them they feel powerless and are stripped from their sense of efficacy •very difficult to correct •The more you talk about it, the more people are going to believe in it •Elites benefit from most them

non-electoral participation

•When you're not trying to influence an election but trying to influence policy or politicians in some way -Contacting elected official -Attending town hall meeting -Writing a letter to the editor -Participating in a protest

candidate appearances around US

•Where do you go •How do you allocate your time •Drive media coverage, drive message, and get voters •Post convention •Go to states they are most targeting

proportional systems

•Where parties in legislature are given seats based on percentage of votes they receive •20% of vote receives 20% of seats in legislature -not perfectly proportional -bring differences and cleavages into legislature which may make it more difficult to legislate

electoral college

•Whoever wins the state gets all electoral college votes, not split

facts about participation

•Women are less likely to participate than men but when they do they outpace men •Blacks historically have lower turnout than whites but recently that is changing •When we control for socioeconomic status we find blacks vote at higher rate than whites •Some people are hesitant to get involved in politics but when they do they become very active (What we see in case of women vs men)

19th amendment

•Women could vote *Women could vote at state level before this -Several states out west bc were trying to attract women to state

neglected preferences

•Your party takes a stance on issue that is out of line where you take a stance •Typically a very important issue to you

cohabitation

•if minor party finds success, one of the two major parties will try to take on its issues and bring those voters into voting for them •May win war on making sure your issues are taken up by one of the major candidates, but most likely wont win election

third parties

•played key role in elections over the years •5% of popular vote in a third of elections since 1840 •Capture 10% of vote in one out of five elections •Strength has allowed more than a dozen presidents to be elected

viability

•probability you are going to win nomination •Candidates that are perceived as having a chance to win the nomination tend to do better