POL 310 Final Devine

According to White and Laird, the most politically important and influential Black institution throughout U.S. history and into the present day has been "the Black _______." A. Church B. Media C. Neighborhood D. Restaurant

A

Also in Chapter 5, White and Laird describe an experiment showing that Black participants were more likely to contribute money to Barack Obama's 2012 presidential campaign when they were: A. accompanied by another Black person who first gave money to the Obama campaign. B. accompanied by another Black person who first gave money to the Romney campaign. C. accompanied by a White person who first gave money to the Romney campaign. D. alone.

A

Ariel Edwards-Levy's article, from the Huffington Post, explains several reasons why polls generally failed to predict Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election. One factor is that most polls included too many of these types of voters, who were about equally likely to support either party's presidential candidate in past elections but much more likely to favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016. A. College graduates B. Independents C. Latinos D. Magicians (Hint: The answer is not magicians. But wouldn't it be funny if the answer was magicians? I mean, seriously, how random is that?)

A

Drutman describes polarization in a two-party system as a "doom loop." What does he mean by this? A. Once people start seeing the parties as very different from each other, partisan divisions only grow worse and worse until they threaten the very existence of our system of government. B. People who identify with parties become more and more unhappy with themselves, feeling like they can't understand politics unless party leaders tell them what to think and do. C. Parties make politics an exciting adventure, much like the "doom loop" roller coaster that Drutman recalls riding at a local amusement park as a child. D. Not only is C the right answer, but I just want to add that I also rode the "Doom Loop" roller coaster as a child, and I can totally confirm that it is as fun as being a political partisan—well, almost as fun.

A

For Monday's class, you read two articles. The first was a New York Times article by Eduardo Porter. This article was mainly about voters in and around the city of: A. Dayton, Ohio. B. Flint, Michigan. C. Milwaukee, Wisconsin. D. Wheeling, West Virginia.

A

How did political scientists Donald Green and Alan Gerber determine that in-person canvassing—essentially, having volunteers knock on people's doors and talk with them—is the most effective way to increase voter turnout? A. Green and Gerber conducted a field experiment in which they randomly assigned people to different groups, with one group of people being visited at their home by a campaign volunteer while other groups received a phone call or a mailing or were not contacted at all, and then compared voter turnout across each group. B. Green and Gerber conducted a survey of voters in Virginia during the 2016 presidential election to ask whether they had been contacted at home by either campaign, and also how the survey respondents voted in the election. C. Green and Gerber interviewed campaign managers from the last six presidential campaigns at a forum hosted by Yale's Center for American Democracy, and asked specifically about their personal experiences with in-person campaigning. D. Green and Gerber ran against each other for mayor of New Haven, Connecticut. Green campaigned only by knocking on doors, while Gerber campaigned only through advertising, rallies, and media appearances. Green won.

A

Political scientists use a variety of methods to try to predict, or anticipate, the outcome of an election before it takes place. This is known as election: A. forecasting. B. gaming. C. rigging. D. watching.

A

Suppose Rudy Flyer runs for president and you want to do everything you can to support his campaign. What is the maximum amount of money, under current federal law, that you can give to this candidate over the course of an election cycle (e.g., party primary plus general election)? A. $5,400 B. $26,000 C. $350,000 D. There is no limit. You can give as much money to the candidate as you wish.

A

The theme for our material this week—as indicated by both PowerPoint titles—has been answering the question: Do ___________ matter? A. campaigns B. presidents C. rules D. running mates

A

According to Hershey, "Republicans believe that the purpose of government is to: A. "enforce law and order domestically, and expand U.S power internationally." B. "promote greater individual economic achievement, even at the cost of economic inequality." C. "reduce economic inequality, and offer a safety net to those who need it." D. "wither away, once it has achieved total equality through the abolition of private property."

B

According to the data presented by White and Laird, over the past several decades—say, since the early 1970s—the percentage of Black Americans identifying as ideologically conservative or supporting conservative policies has generally: A. decreased. B. increased. C. stayed the same. D. None of the above; it has increased dramatically at times, and decreased dramatically at other times.

B

Grossmann and Hopkins present evidence indicating that Americans tend to be "symbolically conservative" but "operationally liberal." What does this mean? A. Americans typically belong to groups associated with the Republican Party, but they tend to vote for Democratic candidates. B. Americans typically identify as ideologically conservative, but they tend to support liberal policies. C. Americans typically say they are fiscally conservative, but in fact they tend to be liberal in the way they spend their own money. D. Americans typically support conservative policies, but they tend to identify as ideological liberals.

B

Hershey describes six "party systems" throughout U.S. history. The transition between party systems—which Hershey defines as "a significant and enduring change in the patterns of group support for the parties, usually (but not always) leading to a new majority party"—is called a(n): A. ideological intervention. B. party realignment. C. political earthquake. D. punctuated equilibrium.

B

Political scientists define "party identification" as: A. a person's ability to correctly identify the party affiliation of the president and other major U.S. political figures. B. a psychological attachment to a political party. C. the party with which someone has legally registered in his or her state. D. the party for which a person has voted most often in past elections.

B

The Drutman chapter begins by discussing this "Framer"—or participant in designing the U.S. Constitution—who argued that factions, or parties, are less likely to form a national majority and abuse minority rights in an "extended republic," or a representative democracy covering a large geographic area, such as the United States. A. Benjamin Franklin B. James Madison C. John Hancock D. Thomas Jefferson

B

The second article that we read for Monday's class, by The Atlantic's Derek Thompson, was about the electoral implications of what recent U.S. migration trend? A. People from Central or South American countries migrating to the Midwestern United States. B. People moving from northern, Democratic-leaning ("blue") states to cities in southern, Republican-leaning ("red") states. C. Skilled professionals, such as doctors and engineers, emigrating from mostly European and Asian countries to large cities in the northeastern United States. D. Swallows flying south for the winter later in the fall--and thus closer to Election Day--than in past years, due to climate change.

B

This type of norm defines how group members should behave. For example, if members of your group talk to you frequently about the election and almost exclusively tell you to vote for the Democratic candidate, this would be evidence of a(n) _________ norm of Democratic support among that group. A. descriptive B. injunctive

B

Which of the following accurately describes the results from the Ahler article? A. People tend to mistake which groups of people are associated with which party; for instance, they think that most women are Republicans and most men are Democrats. Correcting those misperceptions reduces gender polarization. B. People tend to overestimate how much the parties are made up of groups stereotypically associated with them. Correcting those misperceptions reduces partisan polarization. C. People tend to overestimate the extent to which they agree with their party's policy positions. Correcting those misperceptions causes more people to identify as political independents. D. People tend to underestimate how much the Republican Party is made up of wealthy people, and how much the Democratic Party is made up of poorer people. And they refuse to change their minds even when you present them with the facts.

B

Which of the following best describes Baumgartner's conclusions about the effects of presidential debates? A. Debates generally do not influence how people vote, and they do not help people learn information about the candidates and the issues. B. Debates generally do not influence how people vote, but they do help people learn information about the candidates and the issues. C. Debates generally have a great deal of influence on how people vote, and they help people to learn information about the candidates and the issues. D. Debates generally have a great deal of influence on how people vote, but they do not help people learn information about the candidates and the issues.

B

Which of the following best describes the campaign strategies of mobilization versus persuasion? A. Mobilization focuses on campaigning in more distant geographic areas, while persuasion focuses on campaigning closer to a volunteer's home or the campaign headquarters. B. Mobilization focuses on convincing people who already support your candidate to actually vote in the election, while persuasion focuses on convincing people who are undecided or support an opponent to vote for your candidate instead. C. Mobilization focuses on convincing people who are undecided or support an opponent to vote for your candidate instead, while persuasion focuses on convincing people who already support your candidate to actually vote in the election. D. Mobilization is a strategy used by Democrats, while persuasion is a strategy used by Republicans.

B

Which of the following best describes the relationship between education levels and voter turnout? A. Education levels have no effect on voter turnout. B. People with a college degree are more likely to vote than people without a college degree. C. People with a public school or university education are more likely to vote than people with a private school or university education. D. People without a college degree are more likely to vote than people with a college degree.

B

Which of the following was another change that Abramowitz made to his statistical model in 2020? A. He added an independent variable, or predictor, to the model measuring national hospitalization rates. B. He changed the dependent variable, or the outcome that he was trying to predict, from national popular vote to Electoral College votes. C. He included minor party candidates in calculations of the national popular vote. D. He stopped using polling data in his models because, after 2016, he no longer regards them as scientifically valid.

B

White and Laird conclude by discussing how Black political behavior might change in the future. Which of the following do they cite as the greatest threat to continued Black partisan unity in support of the Democratic Party? In other words, what do they say would be most likely to cause Black people to become more diverse in terms of their party identification and voting behavior? A. Economic growth (i.e., increased employment and personal wealth) B. Integration (i.e., increasing diversity of social networks and institutions) C. Representation (i.e., more Black candidates running as Republicans) D. Third parties (i.e., a new party specifically designed to represent Black interest

B

According to White and Laird, one of the principal forums used today by Black Americans to enforce the norm of Democratic Party support—often by shaming Black celebrities, such as Steve Harvey and Kanye West, who deviate from this by offering support to Republicans—is "Black__________." A. Facebook B. Instagram C. Twitter D. YouTube

C

According to the data presented by White and Laird, over the past several decades—say, since the early 1970s—the percentage of Black Americans identifying with the Democratic Party has generally: A. decreased. B. increased. C. stayed the same. D. None of the above; it has increased dramatically at times, and decreased dramatically at other times.

C

As Hershey describes, campaigns often use detailed information about people—from their party registration to their purchasing habits—to identify potential supporters and contact them about voting. This is called: A. air war. B. fundraising. C. microtargeting. D. party identification.

C

At one point in the video lecture, I discuss evidence from open-ended survey questions, in which people were asked to explain - in their own words, without any prompting to mention a particular reason - why they voted for or against a presidential candidate in that year's election. Which of the following most accurately describes that evidence? A. Many, but not most, people (approximately 25%) mentioned the choice of a running mate as a factor that influenced their presidential vote. B. Most people (approximately 55%) mentioned the choice of a running mate as a factor that influenced their presidential vote. C. Very few people (less than 5%, on average) mentioned the choice of a running mate as a factor that influenced their presidential vote. D. Trick question; this evidence was not discussed at any point in the video lectures.

C

Do Running Mates Matter?" is a book about the importance of: A. jogging partners. B. presidential candidates. C. vice presidential candidates. D. vice presidents.

C

FiveThirtyEight—a website most closely associated with its founder, Nate Silver—uses polling data to predict how each state will vote in the Electoral College, and thus which candidate is most likely to win the presidential election. These predictions are updated on a regular basis, as new polling data come in. FiveThirtyEight therefore uses which of the three approaches to predicting election outcomes identified in the article that we read for our first class this week, by Rob Arthur? A. Fundamentals B. Qualitative C. Quantitative D. All of the above

C

In Chapter 5, White & Laird use public records to verify whether Black respondents are more likely to lie about engaging in certain expected political behaviors when speaking with a Black, rather than non-Black, interviewer. They find that this is the case, specifically with respect to answering questions about: A. campaign donations. B. party registration. C. voter turnout. D. yard signs.

C

In class this week, we discussed the strategic objectives of campaign advertising. One major objective of these ads is to convey a campaign message (for example: "the economy is doing well;" or "my opponent is untrustworthy"). What is the other objective—or what else must a campaign ad do in order to be effective? A. Attack the opponent. B. Cite sources when providing statistics and making other factual claims. C. Get the audience's attention. D. Use bright colors at all times.

C

The chapter that we read begins by discussing this Ohio politician, who said in 2016 that he had "zero interest in being vice president"—only to later admit that he wished he had been chosen as the vice presidential nominee. A. John Kasich B. Mike DeWine C. Sherrod Brown D. Ted Strickland

C

The first step when conducting a public opinion poll, or survey, is to identify the population that you want to study—for example, Ohio voters or University of Dayton undergraduate students. What is the second, and most important, step? A. To ask potential respondents what types of questions they would like to see on your survey. B. To calculate a margin of error. C. To survey a random sample of people from the population that you are studying. D. To survey as many people as possible from the population that you are studying.

C

The moderator for this year's vice presidential debate was Susan Page, of USA Today. She wrote each of the questions for this debate—except for the last one, which came from: A. a question that John Kennedy asked his opponent, Richard Nixon, at the first-ever presidential debate in 1960. B. an audience member, who shouted out a question, was removed from the premises, and quickly became an internet sensation. C. an eighth-grade student from Utah, who asked: "If our leaders can't get along, how are citizens supposed to get along?" D. the fly on Mike Pence's head.

C

This Bush campaign strategist—who began his career as a Democrat—played a major role in developing the mobilization strategy used by Republicans to help win the 2004 presidential election. He was featured prominently in the Issenberg chapter, and in the video lecture, where I showed a clip of him explaining the strategy of mobilization by comparing it to McDonald's trying to increase sales through repeat customers. A. David Axelrod B. Ed Gillespie C. Matthew Dowd D. Nate Silver

C

Which of the following best describes how the authors answer the question: Do running mates matter? A. Absolutely, running mates have a huge effect on how people vote in presidential elections; for example, presidential candidates can expect to win the running mate's home state in the election and dramatically increase support among voters who belong to the running mate's social or demographic groups. B. No, running mates do not matter; they have no influence on how people vote in presidential elections. C. Yes, running mates matter, but mostly in terms of their ability to shape voters' perceptions of the presidential candidate who selects them; for instance, picking an inexperienced or unqualified running mate will cause voters to doubt the presidential candidate's judgment, and make them less likely to vote for that candidate. D. Yes, running mates matter, but only for Democratic voters; Republicans and independents show no sign of being influenced by the choice of a vice presidential candidate.

C

Which of the following factors best explains Donald Trump's support among white voters without a college degree in 2016, according to the evidence presented by Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck? A. Economic anxiety B. Foreign policy C. Racial attitudes D. Sexism

C

White and Laird introduce a theory to explain why Black voters overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party and vote for its candidates. This theory is called: A. constrained socialism. B. racialized economics. C. racialized social constraint. D. radical constitutionalism.

C

White and Laird's historical analysis shows that "the specific norms of black politics change as the needs and goals of the black community do." For instance, during THIS era "active participation in non-electoral collective action" was the dominant norm of Black political behavior, and "free riding" was a major threat, or form of defection, that earned social sanctions from other Black people. A. Slavery (pre-1865) B. Reconstruction (1865-1877) C. Jim Crow (1877-1965) D. Post-Civil Rights (1965-present)

C

Abramowitz's statistical model predicted the outcome of several presidential elections quite accurately, based on just three pieces of information (or "independent variables"). However, in 2020, he retained only one of these predictors. Which one was that? A. Crime rates B. GDP growth C. Incumbency D. Presidential approval ratings

D

According to the article by Douglas Ahler that we read for Monday, Americans' opinions about the Democratic and Republican parties are mostly based on: A. their policy positions. B. their presidential candidates. C. the state of the national economy. D. the types of people—or "social groups"—that belong to each party.

D

Chapter 1 of the Hershey text includes a special one-page feature devoted to answering the question: "Is the ______ Party a Party?" (Hint: No, she says, it does not qualify as a political party.) A. Birthday B. Federalist C. Libertarian D. Tea

D

In addition to candidates and their political parties, several "non-party groups" raise and spend money during political campaigns. For example, this type of non-party group—named after a section of the U.S. tax code—is allowed to accept unlimited amounts of money from individuals or corporations and is not required to publicly disclose its donors. However, federal law requires that this group exist primarily to advocate for issues and not for partisan political activities. For instance, these groups are not allowed to endorse political candidates or directly contribute to their campaigns. A. Political Action Committees (PACs) B. Super PACs C. 275s D. 501c4s

D

In both of this week's readings, the authors describe surveys comparing voters' candidate preferences (in a head-to-head matchup) one year before the presidential election (i.e., December 2011 or 2015) and then immediately after the election (i.e,, November 2012 and 2016). Approximately what percentage of voters voted for the same candidate they had preferred one year earlier (e.g., preferred Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in December 2015, and voted for Trump over Clinton in November 2016)? A. 50% B. 60% C. 75% D. 90%

D

In the "Conclusion" chapter, White and Laird explain that their racialized social constraint model is not uniquely applicable to African Americans. In particular, they say that the theory "might best apply to the politics" of this group of people, and provide a detailed explanation of why that is the case (for example, referring to the group's homogeneous social institutions and strong partisan norms). A. LGBTQ B. Native Americans C. Suburbanites D. White Southerners

D

Many people think that Kamala Harris, as the Democratic vice presidential candidate, will help Joe Biden to win votes among women, Black, and Indian-American voters, because she is a member of each of these groups. This is an example of what Devine and Kopko call: A. demographic effects. B. direct effects. C. indirect effects. D. targeted effects.

D

State laws vary with respect to who can vote. For example, some states do not allow people to vote if they: A. fail to show a government-issued photo ID, such as a driver's license or passport. B. have been convicted of a felony. C. have not registered to vote prior to Election Day. D. All of the above.

D

Suppose that you are watching an advertisement for the Republican congressional candidate in your district. According to Grossmann and Hopkins's research, this candidate is most likely to say that voters should elect him because he is: A. a supporter of the Black Lives Matter movement. B. an advocate of women's rights. C. committed to reducing income taxes for wealthy people. D. ideologically conservative.

D

The Baumgartner chapter describes several famous debate moments that are often identified as "game changers"—or events that changed the outcome of a presidential election. Which of the following "game changers" does he discuss in this chapter? A. 1976, when President Gerald Ford said—incorrectly—that the Soviet Union did not dominate Eastern Europe. B. 1988, when Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis showed no emotion in response to a question about whether he would support the death penalty for someone convicted of raping and killing his wife. C. 2000, when Democratic nominee Al Gore repeatedly sighed into his microphone while his opponent, George W. Bush, was answering questions. D. All of the above

D

The evidence from Chapter 4 shows that Black survey respondents are most likely to identify as Democrats when: A. a Republican president is in office. B. answering questions online rather than being on the phone or face-to-face with the interviewer. C. being interviewed during February, which is Black History Month. D. the person conducting the interview is also Black.

D

The theory that White and Laird use to explain Black political behavior stipulates four conditions that must be met in order to maintain unified support for the Democratic Party, including which of the following? A. The existence and acceptance of well-defined norms of Black political behavior. B. Racially homogeneous social networks C. Social sanctions for defection from and rewards for compliance with group norms. D. All of the above.

D

The video lecture included an NBC News report on the Libertarian Party's 2020 presidential nominee, Jo Jorgensen. In addition to Jorgensen, who else was interviewed as part of this report? A. Howie Hawkins, the Green Party's 2020 presidential nominee B. Jorgensen's mom, Stella C. President Trump D. Prof. Devine

D

Which of the following best describes Porter's conclusion—as illustrated by the graph accompanying this article—about the relationship between economic conditions and presidential voting in U.S. counties? A. Poorer counties and wealthier counties are equally likely to vote for Republican and Democratic candidates. B. Poorer counties are much more likely than wealthier counties to vote for Democratic candidates. C. Poorer counties are much more likely than wealthier counties to vote for minor party (e.g., Libertarian, Green) candidates. D. Poorer counties are much more likely than wealthier counties to vote for Republican candidates.

D

White and Laird's theory emphasizes that people are more likely to comply with a social norm when their behavior is public or verifiable. To illustrate this point, they reference political science studies of: A. negative campaigning, which show that candidates are less likely to make negative factual claims about an opponent when fact-checked by local or national media outlets. B. partisanship, which show that people who live in states that require registration with a political party before voting in primary elections are less likely to claim to be politically independent. C. social media usage, which show that people are more likely to share false or misleading media reports when using anonymous accounts or ones linked to a fake name or identity. D. voter turnout, which show that people are more likely to vote after receiving a "shame mailer" showing how often they have voted in recent elections and threatening to tell neighbors whether they vote in the next election.

D

What follows is a fill in the blank question with 1 blanks. Fill in the blank: The chapter that we read in "Identity Crisis"—by Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck—focuses on explaining why white voters without a college degree favored Donald Trump and those with a college degree favored Hillary Clinton, when in previous elections candidate preferences had not sharply diverged based on education. The authors refer to this education-based voting pattern as the ( ) Divide.

Diploma

True or false: According to Hershey, party identification usually does not affect people's political attitudes or behaviors, such as how they vote in presidential elections.

False

True or false: According to Nate Cohn's article, from The New York Times, if polls were as inaccurate—i.e., as far off from the actual voting percentages in each state—in 2020 as they were in 2016, Donald Trump would win this year's election.

False

True or false: According to Sides and Vavreck's "The Gamble," the gender gap in 2012—whereby women voted for Barack Obama at a higher rate than men—was mostly attributable to the issue of abortion. Specifically, women paid much more attention to media coverage of abortion than men did, and abortion attitudes had a much greater effect on vote choice for women than for men.

False

True or false: According to exit polls, Donald Trump did worse—i.e., won a lower percentage of the vote—among Black voters in 2020 than he did in 2016.

False

True or false: According to political science research, as described by Hershey, the candidate who raises the most money almost always wins the election.

False

True or false: Hershey defines a political party as a group of politicians who try to gain power by winning elections.

False

True or false: Most people who call themselves political independents genuinely do not favor either major party. Typically, they are well-informed and highly-engaged "model citizens" who follow politics closely and vote based on issues, rather than party labels.

False

True or false: There is a consensus among political scientists that negative, or attack, advertising "works"—meaning that it convinces undecided voters not to support the campaign's opponent or simply not to vote in the election. Either way, the campaign that runs the negative ad significantly increases its chances of winning the election.

False

True or false: Voter turnout in the United States is lower now than at any point in the nation's history.

False

What follows is a fill in the blank question with 1 blanks. Which group of people are you going to study for your upcoming project, using exit polling data? Remember, you can only study a group that has been featured in exit polling data for each of the 2008-2020 presidential elections. If that does not describe the group you enter here—and, yes, that means you had to do your research this week to find out—then you will get this question wrong.Note: You MUST answer this question. No skips.Ready? Type in your answer below.For my project, I am going to study Blank 1. Fill in the blank, read surrounding text.

N/A

True or false: According to FiveThirtyEight and most recent polling data, Joe Biden is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2020 presidential election.

True

True or false: According to Hershey, party activists—particularly those who are ideological "purists"—tend to be relatively well-educated and wealthy.

True

True or false: According to White and Laird, Black conservatives are about as likely as Black liberals to identify as Democrats, if their social network is mostly Black.

True

True or false: According to the authors of this chapter, most Americans - including politicians - are conflicted about the importance of the vice presidency. In other words, while they recognize that vice presidents have very limited constitutional power and often joke about their irrelevance, at the same time they recognize that vice presidents have become more powerful in recent years and ambitious politicians often want to be selected as a vice presidential candidate.

True

True or false: Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" statistical model predicted that Donald Trump would win the national popular vote in 2016, with 51.4%.

True

True or false: Both of our readings from this week—"The Gamble," by Sides and Vavreck, as well as "Identity Crisis," by Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck—argue that election results are best explained by political and economic fundamentals, such as the state of the economy and the popularity of the current president.

True

True or false: The final experiment, in Chapter 6, shows that Black participants were more likely to comply with group partisan norms (i.e., contribute money to the Obama campaign) when told that their campaign contributions would be published in the school newspaper at the HBCU (Historically Black College or University) that they attended.

True