Public Opinion

What is the most typical size of the public opinion poll with a margin of error of 3?

1000 people

What are exit polls and what advantage do they have over telephone polls

Immediate Response, but a lot of people lie or don't answer

Why should government find it prudent to heed public opinion

-Self-rule in democracy -Public opinion guides government action -Because of upcoming elections and the desire to get elected by potential voters

bandwagon effect? The Underdog effect? The boomerang effect?

Bandwagon: if polls say someone will win, people vote for them Underdog: if someone is losing, people vote for them Boomerang: if someone is winning in the polls you don't vote for them because you don't think you NEED to

Push polls aren't really polls. Why not?

Bias in wording- searching for a specific respons

What are examples of unscientific surveys?

Call-in polls Man on the street Shopping mall polls Polls at political events Google Online Polls Push polls--would you support...if you knew...

Telephone surveys are the most common way of obtaining public opinion. But there are problems with these surveys. What are these problems?

Cell phones, caller ID, too many surveys, response rate Call list you get the numbers from

public opinion

Citizen's collective attitudes and beliefs about politics and government. Communication from citizens to their government Those opinions held by private persons which government finds it prudent to heed

Ideally, what three conditions must be met for public opinion to play an important role in public policy.

Citizens need to know what they want, be able to communicate their demands leaders respond

What other questions should you ask about a survey in order to trust the sample?

How many times were respondents called? How was the survey conducted? (phone/internet, person on phone/robocall, in person) Who conducted the survey? Who paid for the survey? Who was surveyed Be careful of bipartisan surveys

Why is averaging a number of poll results a reasonable approach?

If the polls had a large enough sample size and were conducted in a scientific manner, then averaging them will still produce results that are indicative of the average citizen in the population

Why is public opinion important?

It guides government action, influences public policy, gives feedback to politicians. It gives self rule in democracy.

Why do good surveys use both landlines and cell phone respondents?

Larger sample size - can reach more people Different demographics use landlines and cellphones, get non-bias view

What is a margin of (sampling) error and how is it interpreted?

Margin of sampling error Polls say margins of error is 3% or sometimes +/- 3% Means 95% confident the "real" number is within +/- Margin of Error

Poorly worded or poorly ordered questions can lead to what type of error? Why is this important? Be able to assess whether a question will provide valid results!

Measurement error Misleading questions Question order/Framing effect Might lead to response bias

What are the two most important elements in assuring that a public opinion poll sample is trustworthy?

Must be scientific in sample design (sample size and demographics)

How do the opinions of the public change over time

Opinions are not fixed, they change as new information arise from interests groups, politicians, new administrations etc....

What aspects of public opinion do political scientists study

Relevant to what is popular at the time, hotseat topics

Why are responses "weighted" to match gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, region and population density? What evidence do we have that weighting makes a difference in the results?

Responses are weighted to make measures more precise, and to try to correct for biases in initial sample

What is a sampling frame? Why is it important in assuring the validity of the poll?

The people selected for a poll. It must be large (1,000 people is the standard), and it must be randomly selected.

How do people develop their opinions on candidates and public policy?

They are influenced by family and friends, self interest, race/gender/age, their political party, elite influence, and war and other focusing events.

What is the more current view of public opinion? Why are we more optimistic today?

Voters rely on cues , like when news bash on a president Wisdom of crowds

Did the Founding Fathers trust the public? Did early political scientists trust the public?

nah fam nah