Sustainability and Policy #2
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
"...to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The IPCC first assessment report was important in creating the UNFCCC
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
"Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of GHGs are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems... Warming of the climate system is unequivocal..."
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
"Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations"
Climate Change 1955: The Science of Climate Change
"The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate"
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"
What's consumption Ecologist
"What big fish do to little fish"
What's consumption Economist
"What consumers do with their money"
What's consumption Physicist
"What happens when you transform matter/energy"
Sociologist
"What you do to keep up with the Jones"
Fourth Assessment Report
"global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O have increased markedly as a result of human activities" "warming of the climate system is unequivocal" "very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming" "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic green house gas concentrations"
IPCC is intended to be
"policy relevant" not "policy prescriptive" Although the reports are supposed to be objective and purely scientific, the process is to some degree political (e.g. open for all countries, plenary, topics covered, criticism on process and authors)
Exceptionally unlikely
0-1% probability
Very unlikely
0-10% probability
Unlikely
0-33% probability
Sea level could rise
1-2 meters by 2100, 3-12 m in the next few hundred years, up to 70m eventually
Writing and review process of the IPCC assessment reports
1. Experts review the first draft of the report 2. Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers 3. Governments review word-by-word the revised draft summary for policymakers
About as likely as not
33 to 66% probability
Likely
66-100% probability
Very likely
90-100% probability
Virtually certain
99-100% probability
Complex problem
A complicated, and in many ways enigmatic system, with lots of scientific inputs Actions now, but time lag... impacts in the future Energy use is at the heart of our economic system and patterns of consumption
IPCC guidance on confidence
A depiction of evidence and agreement statements and their relationship to confidence. Confidence increases toward the top-right corner as suggested by the increasing strength of shading. Generally, evidence is most robust when there are multiple, consistent independent lines of high-quality evidence
Sustainability transition
A transition over the early decades of the 21st century in which a stabilizing world population comes to meet its needs by moving away from the actions that degrade the planet's life support systems and living resources While moving toward those that sustain and restore these systems and resources and By moving away from actions that widen disparities in human welfare and toward measures that reduce hunger and poverty
What do we know about climate change? And how do we know it?
About 40 years concern about humanity and planet's resources--1972 Stockholm; Limits to Growth About 40 years observation--planetary boundaries Aggregation of data worldwide from scientific investigations-- complied by IPCC, USGCRP established 1989
Sustainability science is
An emergent field of 'use-inspired' research and innovation, like 'agricultural science' before it Defined by the practical problems it addresses, specifically the problems of sustainability Conducted by drawing from and integrating research from natural, social, medical, and engineering sciences Linking knowledge with action through the design and implementation of improved practices, technologies, and policies
What has changed?
Arctic temperatures and ice Precipitation amounts Ocean salinity Wind patterns Aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones Antarctic sea ice
Stakes are high
Arguably, hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions largely on the basis of the IPCC's findings But the cost of doing nothing? 1.5-20% of GDP for a doubling of CO2?
Social learning
Bandura (1977) theory that people learn from one another (from the environment), via observation, imitation, and modeling (reinforcement and punishment)
Ocean acidification
CO2 and other greenhouse gases mix in the atmosphere Dissolved CO2 changes ocean chemistry and reduces availability of minerals for shell-building plants and animals Oceans absorb about 1/4 of anthropogenic CO2 emissions Fishermen experience decrease in harvest Consumers face change in prices Acidification reduces the size and abundance of shellfish
Resilience
Capacity to recover after disturbance
Climate
Condition of the atmosphere over long periods of time (e.g. average of weather conditions and patterns at a particular place or region; how the atmosphere "behaves" over a long period of time)
Weather
Condition of the atmosphere over short periods of time (usually a particular place/ particular time)
Uncertainty
Confidence and the degree of agreement Probability and the likelihood
Degradation of ecosystem services often causes significant harm to human well-being
Converted ecosystems less valuable than sustainably managed ecosystems
Focused research
Critical loads and carrying capacities Consumption Understanding and monitoring transitions Institutions and incentive structures
Acting now on what we know
Definable and measurable goals Accelerate (10%) current trends in fertility reduction Accommodate an expected doubling to tripling of the urban system in a habitable, efficient, and environmentally friendly manner Reverse declining trends in agricultural production in Africa; sustain historic trends elsewhere Accelerate (2x historic) improvements in the use of energy and materials Restore degraded ecosystems, while conserving biodiversity elsewhere
Vulnerability
Diminished capacity of an individual or group to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or man-made hazard
Non-linearity
Disproportionate cause and effect
The Keeling Curve
Dr. Charles D. Keeling was the first to measure carbon dioxide in the atmosphere on a continuous basis and was the first to report that global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were rising
Dynamics of sustainability science
Economic development: conditions and process such as employment, income and wealth (magnitude and distribution), markets, and trade Social development: sociopolitical conditions and process such as law and order, security, governance, liberty, justice, equity, education, health care, science, culture, the arts Environmental protection: environmental conditions and processes such as air, water, soils, mineral resources, the biota, nutrient cycles, climatic processes
Major foundational challenges
Eradicating extreme poverty and meeting human needs Defeating preventable diseases Managing the escalating competition for the land, water, and biomass of the planet Conquering the integrated challenge of energy, the economy, and the environment Adapting to unavoidable climate change
Sustainability science
Field of "use-inspired" research dealing with the interactions between natural and social systems, and with how those interactions affect the challenge of sustainability
Reports
First Assessment Report- 1990 Second Assessment Report- 1995 Third Assessment Report (TAR)- 2001 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)- 2007 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)- 2013/14 Plus: special reports, technical papers, methodology reports, supporting material
Trends: the climate-change challenge
Global climate is changing rapidly and humans are responsible for most of the change CO2 emissions are the largest driver & 75-85% of these come from combustion of fossil fuels (the rest from deforestation) Fossil CO2 emissions are immense (~30 billion tons/yr in 2006) & difficult to capture and store The world's 80%-fossil-fuel dependent energy system represents a $15 trillion capital investment that takes 30-40 years to turn over CO2 has a long "residence time" in the atmosphere Avoiding biggest risks requires sharply reducing CO2/energy ratio starting immediately
Challenge of Communicating
How to maintain openness and protect the process? Nobel prize in 2007, and skepticism at its peak Errors in the AR4 --e.g. Himalayans glacier melting-rate not from peer-reviewed literature "Climategate"-- leaked emails For instance, one message referring to "hiding the decline," speculated to mean scientists had been covering up falling temperatures, but taken out of context
OCJ Framework for sustainability science and action What are the essential trends of environment and development?
Human action and environmental transformation
NCR priorities for Action
Human population--> accelerate current trends in fertility reduction Cities ---> accommodate 2x to 3x Agricultural production--> Reverse African agriculture decline Industry and energy--> Accelerate improvements E and materials Living resources --> Restore degraded ecosystems while conserving diversity elsewhere Integrative interaction--> Water, atmosphere and climate, species and ecosystems
Ten Indicators of a Warming World
Humidity rising, Sea level rising, ocean heat content rising, sea ice shrinking, sea surface temperature rising, temperature over oceans rising, temperature over land rising, snow covers shrinking, glaciers shrinking, air temperature near surface (troposphere) rising
Radiative forcing
IPCC definition "measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism (i.e. effect on warming-- can be positive or negative)
Legacy effects
Impacts on prior human-nature coupling on later conditions
IPCC Working Group 2
Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting it, taking into consideration the inter-relationship between vulnerability, adaption and sustainable development Considered by sectors [water resources; ecosystems; food & forests; coastal systems; industry; human health] & regions [Africa; Asia; Australia & New Zealand; Europe; Latin America; North America; Polar Regions; Small Islands])
The IPCC
In 1988, the Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) created this to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaption and mitigation
Global Climate Change Impacts on America
Increases in precipitation, change in population, significant weather-related U.S. electric grid disturbances
OCJ Framework for sustainability science and action How do we report on progress and measure success?
Indicators
OCJ Framework for sustainability science and action Are there any threats we should worry about or opportunities we can seize?
Integrated approaches in place-based context
OCJ Framework for sustainability science and action What does the future hold?
Integrated assessment models, scenarios
OCJ Framework for sustainability science and action What do we know now that we can put into action?
Integrating knowledge and action
Adaptive management
Iterative decision-making within the constraints of uncertainty; usually facilitated by monitoring
With Lots of Uncertainty
Land use contributions, feedbacks with clouds, ocean heat uptake, aerosols Probabilistic approaches Climate sensitivity Discount rates Valuation of impacts
Social learning
Learning through observation in a social context
Gaps between commitments SD and progress due to lack of progress on...
Linking knowledge with needs Developing action agenda connecting local needs with global knowledge Establishing dialogue between scientific and development communities
Integrated assessment model
Links formal models of environment and society (integrated because looking at interactions of nature and society; assessment because used in policy making; and models because linking environmental and socioeconomic parameters)
Decarbonization
Long-term reduction in the amount of carbon per unit of energy
IPCC Working Group 3
Mitigation of Climate Change Options for mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that remove them from the atmosphere. The main economic sectors are taken into account, including energy, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry, and waste management. Costs and benefits of the different approaches to mitigation, considering also the available instruments and policy measures.
Materials and urbanization
More than half the population living in cities Expected doubling to tripling of urban system Nearly 1,000 new cities for 4 B new residents New materials, new technologies, new green buildings
Consensus
Must get everyone on the same page! For the AR5, +2000 scientific expert reviewers 830 coordinating lead authors, lead authors and review editors +1000 contributing authors +30,000 scientific papers +195 countries
S&T for Sustainable Development
Nature and society are increasingly tightly coupled system at all scales, goals for each must be pursued jointly (i.e. sustainable development) S&T must be a core component of strategies for attaining those joint goals Gaps persist between what science knows and what is needed, accessible to support decisions Research is required on how to build research, observation, assessment and decision support systems that better bridge the gap
Impediments to using knowledge toward action?
Not just more knowledge about coupled human-nature systems Social values Political contexts Technological innovation and diffusion Fixed/inflexible infrastructure and institutions
The interconnected challenges
Poverty and local environmental degradation Preventable disease is linked to environment and poverty Prosperity amplifies the competition for land, water, and biomass, as well as the demand for energy
Importance and Implications
Primary source for policymakers, from local to national to international (i.e. the European Union) Wide-ranging impacts on carbon-taxation in Europe, renewable energy funding in the US, transportation planning in China, etc.
Different roles science and practice
Problem illumination by science Problem solving by development
Key to success is strengthening institutional capacity
Promote better utilization of existing tools and processes for linking knowledge to action in pursuit of a transition to sustainability
The positive side of interconnected challenges
Prosperity enables investment in environmental protection, restoration, and resilience Technologies (e.g. wireless) can build capacity (e.g., agriculture, health care) in remote areas while creating jobs Green buildings reduce GHGs while saving money Climate adaption win-wins
What are ecosystem services
Provisioning, regulating, cultural
Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability
Reconnecting S&T to sustainable development by: Making it manageable and measurable Navigating through social learning and adaptive management Acting now on what we know Developing sustainability science
Special Reports
Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation Managing the risks of extreme events and and disasters to advance climate change adaption In previous cyclesL CO2, Capture and Storage, Ozone, Technology Transfer, Emissions Scenarios, Land Use, Aviation...
Key features of sustainability science
Requires collaboration between viewpoints in developed and developing human societies Requires collaboration among theoretical and applied scientific disciplines Must bridge the gap between theory, practice, and policy Must be relevant for development globally Must generate new interdisciplinary synthesis across fields
Vulnerability framework
Research that looks for ways the coupling in a human-environment system influence the whole system's response to hazards
Toward a solution-oriented approach
Role of values in science and decision-making How communities at various scales envision and pursue sustainable futures How socio-technical change can be fostered at multiple scales How to promote social and institutional learning for sustainable development
Feedback loops
Self-correction and adjustment
Reciprocal effects
Shared on both sides
SREX
Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common, and climate models project more frequent hot days and more heavy rain events throughout the 21st century Economic impacts from climate-related events have increased, with large spatial and inter-anual variations Impacts depend on the nature and severity of event, vulnerability, and exposure
The Greenhouse Effect
Some solar radiation is reflected by the Earth and the atmosphere Most radiation is warmed by the Earth's surface and warms it Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere. Some is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect of this is to warm the Earth's surface and the lower atmosphere Infrared radiation is emitted by the Earth's surface
Scenario
Summary stories of how the future can unfold; plausible future conditions that provide assumptions for analyses (e.g. potential impacts and responses to climate change)
How do we harness S&T to address the challenges we face? Especially in reconciling humanity's goals for development within the planet's environmental limits?
Sustainability science: an emerging field of research dealing with the interactions between natural and social systems, and with how those interactions affect the challenge of sustainability
Complex adaptive systems
Systems with multiple interconnected components with 1. feedbacks and timelags affecting interactions 2. exhibit nonlinearities and tipping points that influence the ways they respond to interventions 3. have self organizing and emergent behaviors (whole is more complex than the sum of its parts)
IPCC Working Group 1
The Physical Science Basis (Changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere Observed changes in the air, land and ocean temperatures, rainfall, glaciers and ice sheets, ocean and sea level Paleoclimatic information on climate change Biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, gases and aerosols Satellite data, climate models, climate projections, causes and attribution of climate change)
Time lags
Time between action and effect
Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
To develop and refine an internationally-agreed methodology and software for the calculation and reporting of national GHG emissions and removals and to encourage its use by countries participating in the IPCC and by parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
What hasn't
Tornadoes Dust storms Hail Lightning
About the dynamic interactions
Traditional development focused on the economy, secondarily to sociopolitics, and sometimes on environment But they are interconnected the economy requires environmental inputs, sociopolitical stability Many sociopolitical and environmental improvements must be monetized Sociopolitical stability is challenged by environmental disaster
Thresholds
Transition points between alternative states
Adaptive management definition
Treats policy and management as experiments. Emphasis on careful design of what to do in order in order to learn, monitoring to detect failure, and switching to alternatives
OCJ Framework for sustainability science and action What are the goals for a sustainability transition?
UN conventions, treaties, agreements
Heterogeneity (examples: socioeconomic differences, population changes)
Variability across time and space
AR5
WGI completed its work in 2013 (others in 2014) Leaked draft... It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 There is high confidence that this has warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level and changed some climate extremes in the second half of the century CO2 concentrations and rates of increase are unprecedented in the last 800,000 years and at least 20,000 years respectively There is consistent evidence from observations of a net energy uptake of the Earth System due to an imbalance in the energy budget. It is virtually certain that this is caused by human activities, primarily by the increase in C02 concentrations. There is very high confidence that natural forcing contributes only a small fraction to this imbalance. Also dismisses a recent slowdown in global warming, attributing it to short-term factors
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
ice ages around 200ppm warmer inter-glacials 280ppm 2005 378ppm
The IPCC process
review by experts and governments is an essential part of the process. The panel does not conduct new research, monitor-climate related data or recommend policies. It is open to all members of the country who are WMO and UNEP.
Sustainability science is
science of understanding of and ability to manage the interactions of environmental and social system (complex adaptive systems, place-based, integrate global with local) Science aimed at applying this knowledge and guiding human-environmental systems on a path toward sustainability (social learning, adaptive management)
Sustainability science focuses on
the dynamic interactions between nature and society, with equal attention to how social change shapes the environment and how environmental change shapes society
