Ukraine Conflict

Population of Crimea

(2001 Census) 2,024,056 --- compared to 45.5 million in Ukraine as whole ○ Russian 58.32% of the population, Ukrainians 24.32%, Crimean Tatars 12.1%, Belorussians 1.4%, Tartars 0.54%, Armenians 0.43%, Jews 0.22%, Greeks 0.15%. ○ About 77% of Crimeans claim Russian as their native language.

Background History of Ukraine

- Russia and Ukraine (also Belorussia) both view Kiev as motherland - Share roots in orthodoxy (same patriarch) - For much of its history, Ukraine has been controlled by foreign countries:Poland, Lithuania, Golden Horde, Austria, Ottoman Empire, and Russia - Temporarily independent after Russian Revolution - From the 17th century to the late 20th century, Ukraine was mostly controlled by the Russian Empire and then the USSR - Russia attempted to "Russify" Ukraine multiple times: Linguistic, anti-nationalism, purges, education, Russian officials - During tsarist and communist rule, by Catherine the Great and Stalin - Ukraine has always faced an east-west divide - The name Ukraine literally means "of the border"

History of NATO Expansion

- Under the Clinton administration in 1999, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are admitted to NATO even though many in the US opposed NATO expansion. Russia made it clear that they opposed this expansion. - In 2004 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Slovakia are added to NATO. The Russians voice their dissent again. - At the Bucharest summit in April, 2008 NATO praises Georgia and Ukraine for their interest in joining the alliance and agree to grant them their wish. - The Russians are furious and warn that Ukraine and Georgia's decision will destabilize security in the region seeing as NATO has now reached Russia's doorstep. - Putin in '08: "Georgia and Ukraine becoming part of NATO is a direct threat to Russia" - From Russia's perspective, the expansion of NATO threatens its national security esp. If Ukraine and Georgia were to join the alliance, thus they have placed enormous pressure on those countries both political and economic to remain out

Referendum and Subsequent Annexation of Crimea

-May 21, 1992 Russian parliament declared 1954 transfer illegal -Govt treaty allows for 25,000 Russian troops in Crimea (pre crisis) -Leaders of Crimea issue an independence referendum March 16,2013 ----Paramilitary forces roamed streets during vote -96.77% voted to join Russia on March 16, 2014 and and is incorporated two days later

War in Donbass

-Rebels seize government building in Eastern Ukraine in April 2014 -Donetsk and Luhansk declare their independence in May 2014 Differences from Crimea -Russia has not officially absorbed Donetsk and Luhansk -These territories have not been successful in ousting the Ukrainian government -Ceasefires have been signed, but there is ongoing conflict -According to UN, 9,700 died in War in Donbass

Why Yanukovych Pick The Russian Deal?

-Yanukovych looking to keep his own elite in power -Russian oil and dependency of Ukraine on Russia

Crimea: From Russia To Ukraine (1954)

1954 - Premier of the Soviet Union Nikita Khrushchev gives Crimea to Ukraine as a gift marking the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's merger with the Russian empire

Brief History of Ukraine - European Union Relations

1991 EU & Ukraine established first relations 1993, first sign of integration with EU EU offered Ukraine the Association Agreement,2013 Association agreement Russia reacts by offering a 15 billion dollar loan to Ukraine - Yanukovych accepted this deal which lead to protests.

Events Leading Up to the Crisis

1991- Ukraine declares independence in referendum 2004 - Orange Revolution (supported by the west). Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko wins 2010 - Viktor Yanukovych wins fair election. Initially is pro-Western 2013 - Yanukovych ditches EU by rejecting the Ukraine Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area and turns to Russia. Protests begin 2014 - November protests escalate to violence across Ukraine by January ----Yanukovych flees after Feb 21st agreement ----New elections, Poroshenko elected in May ----Crimea declares independence and Russia absorbs it. ----Clashes begin in Eastern Ukraine and Luhansk and Donetsk declare independence

EU deal vs.Russian Deal

EU AA Deal -Treaty between EU and Ukraine states -Ukraine looking to benefit from free trade with Europe -EU looking for stability in Ukraine for imports and exports Russian CU membership -"Massive aid package consisting of $15 billion in loans" (Menon 77) -Roughly 30 percent gas discounts

Motives of the European Union

EU sought to regain US interest in European affairs EU wanted to improve relations with Ukraine and give them the option of joining the EU The EU wanted to expand their influence over more European countries Looked to increase security for the EU nations EU possibly looked to disrupt Russia's heavy interest within Ukraine's border

Russia's Position - Why Take Crimea Back After 60 Years

Military importance of Crimea? -Crimea holds Sevastopol, Russia's only warm-water naval base. -Retaking Crimea and exerting Russian influence in Ukraine will prevent the West from stealing it away and removing it as a buffer state between Europe and Russia. Economic importance of Crimea? -In addition to the good farmland, offshore oil and gas reserves make Crimea a prime piece of real estate for the Russians to take. -In seizing Crimea, Putin also secured the surrounding waters, triple Crimea's size. Ethnic and Linguistic makeup? -65.3% of the Crimean population is ethnically Russian. Most of them are most likely Orthodox christians. These are only further reasons for Russia to incorporate Crimea as many of it's people are ethnically Russian and practice the same religion.

Minsk Protocol

Representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), and the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) signed the Minsk Protocol, an agreement to halt the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, on 5 September 2014.

Feb 21st, 2014 Agreement

Signatories - Viktor Yanukovych, president of Ukraine Opposition - Vitaliy Klichko, UDAR, Oleh Tyahnibok, Svoboda, Arsenij Yatsenyuk, Batkivshchyna,, Witnesses - Polish foreign minister, German foreign minister, French foreign minister - Vladimir Lukin, Russian special envoy Aim - Restore 2004 constitution and its amendments - Put more power in PM than in President - Constitutional reform done by Sep 2014 - Elections after constitution adopted but no later than Dec 2014 - No state of emergency by authorities - Foreign dignitaries to call end to violence

Timeline of Euromaidan

● Nov 21, 2013 - Protests for European Integration in response to Yanukovych's rejecting EU AA ● Nov 30, 2013 attack on protesters ● Dec 1, 2013: Maidan protesters seize City Hall in Kiev ● Dec 17, 2013: Putin offers $15 billion loan ● Jan-Mid,2013: Ukraine Parliament passed laws restricting protests and opposition ● Jan 22, 2014: Two death is in protests ● Feb 18, 2014: Street clashes 26 dead ● Feb 20, 2014: Street clashes ; 40 dead ● Feb 21,2014: Kyiv, - Agreement on Settlement of Ukrainian Crisis ● Feb 22, 2014: Yanukovych flees the country, Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov ● Feb 27, 2014: First Yatsenyuk government is created ● May 25, 2014: Petro Poroshenko elected president in landslide

Russia's Position - Geopolitical/Geographical Interest

● Potential for 2nd largest EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) member. ● Ukraine's eastern border lies 600 km from Kazakhstan, beside Russia's Agricultural heartland. ● Major Commercial ports - Odessa, Novorossiysk, Astrakan - could potentially be affected.