2

In the absence of any other information or visibility, individual supply chain participants can begin second-guessing what is happening with ordering patterns, and potentially start over-reacting. This is known as? a) Bullwhip Effect b) Running Sum of Forecast Errors c) Tracking Signal d) Forecast Bias

a) Bullwhip Effect

The following are ALL common quantitative forecasting models EXCEPT? a) Delphi Method b) Naive Forecasting c) Exponential Smoothing d) Simple Linear Regression

a) Delphi Method

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) creates the bullwhip effect through the sharing of plans, forecasts, and delivery schedules in an effort to ensure a smooth flow of goods and services across a supply chain. a) True b) False

b) False

Which of the following is NOT one of the basic types of forecasting? a) Qualitative b) Cause and Effect c) Force Field Analysis d) Time Series

c) Force Field Analysis

Which type of demand is forecasted? a) dependent demand b) conditional demand c) independent demand d) tentative demand

c) independent demand

Which forecasting technique uses mathematical models and historical data to make forecasts? a) approximate b) conditional c) qualitative d) quantitative

d) quantitative

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a Time Series forecasting technique? a) Delphi Method b) Exponential Averaging c) Simple Movement Smoothing d) Simulation e) Weighted Moving Average

e) Weighted Moving Average

The Bullwhip Effect occurs because suppliers and manufacturers do no make enough inventory to satisfy demand. True or false

False

Which one of the following is NOT one of the Fundamentals of Forecasting? a) All trends will eventually end b) The more "granular" the forecast, the more accurate c) Technology is not the solution to better forecasting d) A correct forecast does not prove your forecast method is correct

b) The more "granular" the forecast, the more accurate

Which of the following is not a Time Series Forecasting Technique? a) Simple moving average b) Naive forecast c) Historical analogy d) Weighted moving average

c) Historical analogy

Which of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting? a) Jury of Executive Opinion b) Historical Analogy c) Customer Survey d) Naive Method

d) Naive Method

Are the following two absolute deviations correct? 1) 500 Actual - 300 Forecast = 200 Absolute 2) 500 Actual - 700 Forecast = -200 Absolute a) Yes b) No

b) No

Cause and effect forecast models use the historical relationship between an independent variable(s) and a dependent variable to predict the future values of the dependent variable. True or false

True

Independent Demand is demand for an item that is unrelated to the demand for other items, such as a finished product, a spare part, or a service part. a) True b) False

a) True

The Qualitative forecasting method is based on opinion & intuition. a) True b) False

a) True

The business practice that combines the intelligence of multiple trading partners in the planning and fulfillment of customer demands is known as a) Aggregate Production Planning (APP) b) Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) c) Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) d) Distribution Requirements Planning (DRP)

b) Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR)

For every forecasting problem, there is one best forecasting technique. a) True b) False

b) False

Historical analogy is a quantitative method of forecasting. a) True b) False

b) False

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE? a) Your forecast is most likely wrong b) A correct forecast does not prove that your forecast method is correct c) Complex forecast methodologies provide better forecasts than simple forecast methodologies d) Most forecasts are biased e) If you don't use the data regularly, trust it less when forecasting

c) Complex forecast methodologies provide better forecasts than simple forecast methodologies

Which one of the following is a type of qualitative forecasting? a) Naive method b) Exponential smoothing c) Historical analogy d) Linear trend

c) Historical analogy

Which type of forecast variation involves a pattern of variation within one year that can be repeated from year-to-year? Typically has some period of considerably higher demand. a) trend variation b) random variation c) seasonal variation d) cyclical variation

c) seasonal variation

The process of combining statistical forecasting techniques and judgement to construct demand estimates for products or services is known as? a) Cause and Effect b) Time Series c) Forecasting d) Demand Planning

d) Demand Planning

When creating a quantitative forecast, if you detect a repeating pattern of demand data from year to year with some periods of considerably higher demand than others. This is known as what type of variation? a) Random variation b) Trend variation c) Cyclical variation d) Seasonal variation

d) Seasonal variation

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a cause and effect forecasting technique? a) Historical analogy b) Weighted moving average c) Exponential smoothing d) Simple linear regression

d) Simple linear regression

_____ measures the size of the forecast error in units. It is calculated as the average of the unsigned errors over a specified period of time. (Fill-in-the-blank with one of the terms below). a) Mean absolute deviation b) Mean squared error c) Mean absolute percent error d) Running sum of forecast errors

a) Mean absolute deviation

Are the following two absolute deviations correct? 1) 500 Actual - 400 Forecast = 100 Absolute 2) 500 Actual - 600 Forecast = -100 Absolute a) No b) Yes

a) No

All Cause-and-Effect Models focus on the impact of one independent variable. a) True b) False

b) False

Dependent demand items are generally forecasted based on market conditions and/or historical sales and usage data. a) True b) False

b) False

Independent demand items are not forecasted because the demand quantity can be directly calculated based on the demand for the finished end product. a) True b) False

b) False

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is a measure of forecast bias. MAD indicates the tendency of a forecast to be consistently higher or lower than actual demand. a) True b) False

b) False

Qualitative forecasting techniques generally take advantage of the knowledge of experts and therefore do not require much judgement. a) True b) False

b) False

The most commonly used forecasting accuracy measures are Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Multiple Regression (MMR), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). a) True b) False

b) False

The process of combining statistical forecasting techniques and judgement to construct demand estimates for products or services is Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment. a) True b) False

b) False

Which one of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting? a) Customer survey b) Linear trend c) Personal insight d) Historical analogy

b) Linear trend

When creating a quantitative forecast, if you detect a pattern of demand data that shows a movement of a variable over time. This is known as what type of variation? a) Cyclical variation b) Seasonal variation c) Random variation d) Trend variation

d) Trend variation