ATP 2-33.4 : Appendix B : Intelligence Analysis : Cognitive Considerations for Intelligence Analysts

Bandwagon approach

"Everybody is doing it."

Personal Bias

the tendency to base assessments on personal beliefs.

Analogical reasoning

method of processing information that relies on an analogy to compare the similarities between two specific entities; those similarities are then used to draw a conclusion—the more similarities between the entities, the stronger the argument.

Fallacy of composition

committed when a conclusion is drawn about a whole based on the features of parts of that whole when, in fact, no justification is provided for that conclusion

Misusing analogies

occurs when one generalizes indiscriminately from analogy to real world.

Stating hypotheses contrary to fact

occurs when someone states decisively what would have happened had circumstances been different.

Relevance

connected with and bears upon the question people are reasoning through. Something is also relevant when it is pertinent or applicable to a problem people are trying to solve.

Inductive reasoning

looking at given factual information or data for a pattern or trend and inferring the trend will continue. Although there is no certainty the trend will continue, the assumption is it will. "Based on this trend, this is probably true."

Fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc

(after this, therefore because of this) is consideration of other factors that might have accounted for the same result that are omitted.

False dilemma

(also known as black-and-white thinking) is a fallacy in which a person omits consideration of more than two alternatives when in fact there are more than two alternatives.

Begging the question

(also known as circular reasoning) is a fallacy in which the conclusion occurs as one of the premises

Vividness

Clear and concise or vivid information has a greater impact on analytical thinking than abstract and vague information.

3 types of Personal Bias

Confirmation bias, Assimilation bias, Anchoring bias

8 Essential Intellectual Traits

Fair- Mindedness, Intellectual Humility, Intellectual Courage, Intellectual Empathy, Intellectual Integrity, Intellectual Perseverance, Confidence in Reason, Intellectual Autonomy

7 Fallacies of Omission

Oversimplification, Fallacy of composition, Fallacy of division, Fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc, False dilemma, Hasty generalizations, Special pleading

Depth

People think deeply when they get beneath the surface of an issue or problem. Depth of thinking is also present when people identify its inherent complexities, and then deal with those complexities not superficially but in an intellectually responsible way.

Snob approach

This type of argumentum ad populum does not assert "everybody is doing it," but rather that "all the best people are doing it."

6 Types of Cognitive Bias

Vividness, Absence of evidence, Oversensitivity to consistency, Persistence on impressions, Dependency on memory, Acceptance of new intelligence.

Fallacy of division

committed when a person infers that what is true of a whole must also be true of the parts of that whole.

Hasty generalizations

conclusions drawn from samples that are too few or from samples that are not truly representative of the population.

Creative thinking

creating something new or original.

Critical thinking

deliberate process of analyzing and evaluating thought with a view to improve it

Special pleading

fallacy in which the writer creates a universal principle, then insists that the principle does not for some reason apply to the issue at hand.

Abductive reasoning

similar to inductive reasoning since conclusions are based on probabilities or "guessing." "Because this is probably true, then this may also be true."

Clarity

the gateway standard. If the questions a person tries to answer, the information a person uses, the inferences a person makes, and the assumptions that guide a person's thinking are unclear, one cannot determine whether the information the person provides is accurate, relevant, logical, or justifiable

Precision

to give the details needed for someone to understand exactly what is meant. Precise thinking seeks more details and greater specificity when necessary

Accuracy

to represent something in accordance with the way it actually is. People often describe things or events inaccurately

Fairness

to think in accordance with reason and to consider the views of others. Fairness as a standard helps one deal with one's propensity for self-deception.

Deductive reasoning

using given factual information or data to infer other facts through logical thinking. It rearranges only the given information or data into new statements or truths; it does not provide new information. "If this is true, then this is also true."

Reasoning

what allows humans to process information and formulate explanations in order to assign meaning to observed actions and events.

Oversimplification

A generality that fails to adequately account for all the complex conditions bearing on a problem.

Interpretation and inference

All thinking contains interpretations and inferences by which to draw conclusions and give meaning to data. Critical thinkers should be careful to infer only what the evidence implies and to crosscheck inferences with each other.

Purpose

All thinking has a purpose. Critical thinkers will state the purpose clearly. Being able to distinguish the purpose from other related purposes is an important skill that critical thinkers possess.

Question at issue

All thinking is an attempt to figure something out, to settle some question, or to solve some problem. A critical thinker can state questions clearly and precisely, express the questions in several ways to clarify their meaning and scope, and break the questions into subquestions.

Information

All thinking is based on data, information, and evidence. Critical thinkers should support their conclusions with relevant information and be open to actively searching for information that supports and contradicts a position

Assumptions

All thinking is based, in part, on assumptions. In this context, an assumption is a proposition accepted to be true without the availability of fact to support it. Assumptions are layered throughout a person's thinking and are a necessary part of critical thinking.

Concepts.

All thinking is expressed through, and shaped by, concepts. A concept is a generalized idea of a thing or a class of things. People do not always share the same concept of a thing.

Point of view

All thinking is performed from some point of view. To think critically, analysts must recognize a point of view, seek other points of view, and look at them fair-mindedly for their strengths and vulnerabilities.

Implications and consequences

All thinking leads somewhere or has implications and consequences. Analysts should take the time to think through the implications and consequences that follow from their reasoning. They should search for negative as well as positive implications.

8 Fallacies of Relevance

Appeal to Force Genetic fallacy Argumentum ad hominem Argumentum ad populum Patriotic approach Bandwagon approach Snob approach Appeal to tradition

3 Fallacies of Assumption

Begging the question, Stating hypotheses contrary to fact, Misusing analogies

9 intellectual standards

Clarity, Accuracy, Precision, Relevance, Depth, Breadth, Logic, Significance, Fairness

Oversensitivity to consistency

Consistent evidence is a major factor for confidence in the analyst's judgment. Information may be consistent because it is appropriate, or it may be consistent because it is redundant, is from a small or biased sample, or is the result of the enemy's deception efforts.

2 Types of Thinking

Critical & Creative

4 Types of Biases

Cultural, Organizational, Personal, Cognitive

4 Types of Reasoning

Deductive, Inductive, Abductive, Analogical

Logic fallacies

Errors in the reasoning process caused by the failure to apply sound logic.

2 types of Organizational Biases

Groupthink, Best case

pattern recognition

Humans detect and impose patterns on apparently random entities and events in order to understand them, often doing this without awareness. Intelligence analysts impose or detect patterns to identify relationships, and often to infer what they will do in the future.

Basic Thinking Abilities

Information ordering. Pattern recognition. Reasoning.

Absence of evidence

Lack of information is the analyst's most common problem, especially in the tactical environment.

Organizational Bias

Most organizations have specific policy goals or preconceived ideas. Analysis conducted within these organizations may not be as objective as the same type of analysis done outside the organization.

Acceptance of new intelligence

Often new intelligence is viewed subjectively; either valued as having more value or less value than current intelligence

8 Elements of thought

Purpose, Question at issue, Information, Interpretation and inference, Concepts, Assumptions, Implications and consequences, Point of View

Dependency on memory

The ability to recall past events influences judgment concerning future events.

Genetic fallacy

The genetic fallacy is the claim that, because an idea, product, or person must be wrong because of its origin.

Cultural Bias

The inability to see things through the eyes of someone from another country or culture

Argumentum ad populum

This fallacy uses an appeal to popular assent, often by arousing the feelings and enthusiasm of the multitude rather than building an argument.

Patriotic approach

This argument asserts that a certain stance is true or correct because it is somehow patriotic, and that those who disagree are somehow unpatriotic.

Appeal to force

This argument uses force, the threat of force, or some other unpleasant backlash to make the audience accept a conclusion.

Confirmation bias

This bias causes analysts to undervalue or ignore evidence contradicting an early judgment and value evidence that tends to confirm already held assessments.

Assimilation bias

This bias involves the modification and elaboration of new information to fit prior conceptions or hypotheses. The bias is toward confirming a preconceived answer

Anchoring bias

This bias involves the use, often unwitting, of arbitrary values in decision making, including the use of conclusions developed by others.

Groupthink

This bias occurs when a judgment is unconsciously altered because of exposure to selective information and common viewpoints held among individuals. Involving people outside the organization in the analysis can help identify and correct this bias.

Best case

This bias occurs when an analyst presents good news or bad news in the most optimistic light. The judgment is deliberately altered to provide only the information the commander wants to hear.

Argumentum ad hominem

This fallacy seeks to discount evidence before it is presented, most often by discrediting the source. Abusive or Circumstantial

Appeal to tradition

This line of thought asserts that a premise must be true because people have always believed it or done it.

Persistence on impressions

When evidence is received, there is a tendency to think of connections that explain the evidence.

Breadth

When people consider the issue from every relevant viewpoint, they think broadly. Multiple points of view that are pertinent to the issue are given due consideration. Recognize other viewpoints and intellectually empathize with those contrary viewpoints so as to understand them.

Significance

When people reason, they want to concentrate on the most important information and consider the most important ideas or concepts to answer the question.

Logic

When people think, they bring together thoughts in some order. When the combined thoughts are mutually supporting and make sense, the thinking is logical.

Information ordering

ability to follow previously defined rules or sets of rules to arrange data in a meaningful order.