Business, Economics, Politics, Inter. Relations, Religion

Alibaba

Alibaba-Chinese ecommerce giant

Corporations, social responsibility

Corporations-Should there be a quota for public companies and females on boards

Development

Development-goes from agrarian, industrial, to knowledge based.

Liberal internationalism

Liberal Internationalism-Washington should sustain and expand a global order that promotes open markets, open polities, and multilateral institutions. Trump has attacked by questioning NATO, blowing up trade agreements; insulting allies Some say it failed to appreciate rise of China.

Open Source

Open source-OpenRAN, mobile network that allows carriers to mix andmatch comonents rather than buying from one vendor; is an alternative to relying on either Huawei, Nokia, or Ericsson. Uses technology called network virtualization. Analogy: compare old tethered telephone to modern smartphone. One is a dedicated piece of hardware made of customized parts; the other is a general purpose computer controlled by software that can accommodate any type of add provided it complies with rules. Similarly, conventional mobile networks are made of specialized equipment, whereas new OpenRAN uses off-the-shelf hardware with losts of code definig what it can do. B/c all gear connects up using standard interfaces, carriers can mix and match products from different suppliers; which they can't do today. Operators can avoid Chinese chips. See Rakuten. Instead of replicating the huge investments they have made in hardware, he used low-cost base stations, cloud-based architecture and software to create world's first fully commercialized virtualized network, adaptable for modular technology called OpenRaN. Dish in the US is doing the same. Cons-technology may not work well in densely populated cities; hard to integrate many diferent products ; supply chain is untested; Microsoft used to consider Open Source a cancer; now it plans to offer 20 data-sharing groups by 2022; unlike oil, they can be reused; Berlin & Sfran have Open data initiatives;companies fearful IP loss & user privacy. Cos have been less willing to play ball outside limited scope; MicSFT encourages non-commerc sharing, it is developing software, licenses, and rules frameworks to let firms trade data or provide access without losing control; Could be to data what Linux and IBM were to open-source software for operating systems. Should bridge the data divide; data is more complex than code; Jio partnering with Samsung to do the same;Linux built most successful open source software-developed by people all over world-all the universities, companies, people fix bugs, patch vulnerabilities, improve operating system; crowd sourcing all works in cybersecurity;

Rawle's vail of ignorance

Rawle's vail of ignorance

Reconciliation

Reconciliation-can pass with 50 vote maority but limits the # of bills to 3 a year--one each on spending, tax and debt limits; does not permit changes to social secuirty and normally requires that the impact on the deficit is deficit neutral within 10 years, either b/c the spending measures expire or are balanced by tax rises

Big companies

Big companies--they will buy up small ones; bigger they are, harder it will be for smaller companies to build scale to challenge

Capitalism, technology threat to

Capitalism, technology threats to. Reliance on technologies, smartphones, social media, gaming. Addiction. Well-functioning markets freedom to act in sell interest, transparent prices, exchange of goods. Rational consumers and rational allocation of resources. Tech's goal is create dependency. Avg. person 2617 swipes per day. Suppress judgment and reason and activate want and desire. Data collectors rely on asymmetry of information. Taking advantage of drunk shopping.

GIG economy

GIG economy-independent contractors vs. employees;

Nokia

Nokia-sales down 7% in 2020; it is behind on 5G

Streaming wars

Streaming wars-Netflix-revenues crushed by surging dollar; concerns of cash burn-needs new money to bankroll new content and concerns of international revenues will not offset slowing growth in the US; concern media companies will move to streaming; Disney+ is hurting b/c theme parks closed; Warner Media hurting; NBC/Comcast hurting too; may be hard to dethrone Netflix; will be hard to starve Netflix of content;

China, fears

China, fears-narrow window before economy sours, population old, & other countries play hard; first time in the global stage and hate to lose face publicly; if their econ falters there is chaos; Tianiman Sq gathering largely b/c inflation high, food supply low and high unemployment; party corruption with delegitimize country so Xi exiled 100s of senior party leaders to restore integrity; China sells more to us than us to them--they don't want a trade war; they fear belt and road countries waking up; aging population; can't secure trade routes and raw materials; they may recognize that their growth has relied on unsustainable debt, subsidies, cronyism, and IP thieft; ghost towns of empty apartments; potential capital flight causing currency crises;

Housing and democracy

Housing and democracy-Stopped building affordable housing in cities; Zoning; Scarcity of housing drives prices up; makes existing homeowners happy but also makes them very keen to not see more low income housing around them that would drive down prices; makes it harder for younger people to buy; Wages are not growing as fast as asset prices; supply constraints; Failure of democracy—people trying to come in don't have a voice or vote at local level;If car industry could only sell 50k per yr.—would only sell most expensive high margin cars

Huawei

Huawei-Chinese smartphone manufacturer and mobile-network infrastructure;Huawei may go bust or be forced to sell off HiSilicon--Huawei's chip design arm and one of the most advanced in world. Hisilicon will no longer be able to design chips for its owner Huawei--so it may do so for 3rd parties in China and create new rev streams for Huawei. HiSilicon could compete with Qualcomm. who control digital infrastructure and mobile networks controls world; Huawei leads in 5G; builds networks with proprietary hardware & software end to end solution; all designs and upgrades are in their hands; equivalent of Microsoft/IBM for operating system and personal computer and AT&T for Telcom;

Walmart

Walmart-Nimble; ship from store service as 45 online fulfilment centers became overwhelmed; two-hour delivery service also expanding-omnichannel sales; Amazon yet to crack groceries

China, trade policy

China, trade policy-tighten privacy law; protect US citizens' data; create new federal data=privacy and cyber-security law with transparent standards for handling Americans' data ; stymie foreign hackers; ensure quality of digital products containing opaque algorithms; nationalist whack-a-mole, backed by knee-jerk threats of expropriation is no way to respond

Environment, human migrations

Environment, human migrations-people will be stuck in inhabitable areas. 1/3 of world's population will outside ideal band of temp and precipitation by 2070. 100s of Ms of people. Right now 1% lives and 2070 20% of population. People forced to move b/c too hot or dry. Increasing poverty in biggest cities. US-fires in west, intense heat south, sea level on costs, failing crops in midwest; maybe even half of the US population moves--forest retreat;

Dollar, future of

Dollar, future of-Europe known for museums, Asia retirement homes, China jails, and Bitcoin an "experiment." Dollar will be just fine as long as there is not a better alternative. Despite our debt spending.

Police reform

Police reform-make prosecuting and suing police easier; create national registry of police-misconduct; mandate more extensive data collection; ban chokeholds for fed officers; ban no-knock warrants in federal drugcases; limit transfer of military equipment to police; increase funding for body cameras; hire officer candidates with similar racial and ethnic characteristics of community; allow officer disciplinary records to be seen by public

Recycling

Recycling-economic and environmental disaster; amount of energy to melt is far more energy than produce with exception of aluminon; labor, effort, energy to get right is a lot; recycling doesn't make economic sense; 1M pounds of raw material to make my gadget that 1M pounds can come out of ground single pipe to go into plant and process; or 1M pounds where by 10s of KS of homes individually pick it, labor intensive, throw in truck, drive around, resort, grind it up, uproot out plastic grind to get to the raw material; CO2 emissions--more energy for;

Space war

Space war-anti-satellite tests; called kinetic tests; debris from China's testing--the more debris the more likelihood of collisions and more debris; known as Kessler syndrome-entire swthes of near-Earth space could be unusable; Russia and China want to ban all weapons in space; US wants to use space-based anti-missile systems to threaten nuclear forces of toehrs

Alphabet

Alphabet-anti-trust allegations of market dominance in online-search and advertising tech; biggest challenge is to prevent it from becoming a conventional company "that dies a slow death from lack of innovation and declining growth"; leader in services to "buy, sell, and serve ads"; google, YouTube; access (fiber optic broadband); GV (investments); Verily (health care); Waymo (autonomous cars developer) and X (secret); these businesses are not connected at the core but information processing and AI connects them; benefit from (1)internet (2) open source software; (3) Stanford post-grad prog; goal to "organize world's info"; revenues-$95B-search; $20B-advertising; $16B-you tube; $8B-cloud; focused more on solving world's biggest problems, not making money; not great for customer service; Pichai is current CEO; Sergy Brin and Larry Page-founders

Catastrophic risks

Catastrophic Risks- The Carrington Event was a geomagnetic storm that last happened in 1859-100M tons of charged particles thrown off Sun slamming into Earth's magnetosphere protected by currents in the planet's liquid core; today coronal mass ejection" (CME) as large as Carrington event would topple electrical grids, fry satellites, or extinguish life; pandemics and giant volcanic eruptions are also very dangerous; large 10km asteroid that killed dinosaurs; gamma rays from hypernova; volcanic super eruption from Yellowstone once covered half of the US with ash 630k years ago; 1/6 chance of humans being destroyed in next century-role of dice/revolver; prepare for low probability, high impact events; a CME would devastate transformers in electrical grids that step voltage down-takes 6 to 12 months to replace and only a few countries have industrial capacity to make; if you simult lose ability to pump water, pump fuel, communicate, volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 1815 cooled climate around the world; deadly AI becomes dangerous to humans-50 year guess

Amazons, deforestation of

Amazons, deforestation of-464k sq.miles cleared in Q1 2020. 55% more than 2019. Ranchers will set fire to cleared areas to prepare them for grazing; tree loss at "tipping point" trees will dry out and die releasing billions of CO2 into atmosphere; Bolsonaro favors dereg to allow logging, mining,and farming;weakened environ enforcement; beef and soya drive deforestation; Cargill/JBS are supply chain middlemen; speculators operate outside law to buy or seize land; sell the timber; graze cattle and then sell land to soya farmers; land is 5-10x more valuable once deforested; cost in foregone beef for not chopping would be $275bn over 30 yrs; but Cargill/JBS can't control activity of smaller firms; ranching is especially bad-80% of deforestation, nearly all illegal; hard to know if cattle come from illegal farms; ways to address-use animal transit permits; better enforcement; raise fund of $250M to compensate farmers who retain woodland; more business from big firms to those that help; fate of 10s of ks of poor settlers on public lands

US, Navy

US, Navy-China now has the world's largest navy; US has 296 and china 350; new drone ships; smaller are harder to spot on radar and they are cheaper to build and operate; they could supply other ships and lay mines; must be either remote controlled (could have communications jammed) or be able to make its own decisions

Digital currencies

Digital currencies--centralized currencies, harder to launder money or evade taxes, could use coding to control how money is used-e.g., commercial bank must lend to a small business; easier to make nominal interest rates negative (China is trying to be the first (Central Bank Digital Currency-CBDC)

Strategic empathy

Strategic empathy-trying to understand how the world looks to others, and how those perceptions, as well as emotions and aspirations, influence their policies and actions

AI

AI-$16TN market by 2030; power search engines and voice assistants, suggest email replies, facial-recognition systems that unlock smartphones and police national borders; recognize unwelcome posts on social media; could be bigger than electricity or fire; recognizes patterns in data; banks assess credit risk; prevent fraud; monitor-social welfare payments, mass surveillance in Xinjiang

Autonomous cars

Autonomous cars-driverless cars imagined to do away with car ownership let people summon robotaxis at will; computers don't tire and don't lose attention; 1M die annually do to fallible humans; use of machine learning to extract general rules; more data, better performance; challenge-"edge cases" unusual circumstances such as escaped horse on road light aircraft making emer landing; humans deal without thinking; computers struggle; difficult when snow obscured lane markings; stickers can cause car to misidentify stop sign; humans can use "top-down" reasoning; more about "automatic lane keeping or parking" rather than full-blown autonomous; use cameras, radar, lidar (optical equivalent of radar) and staellite-positioning; One way is to avoid regulated roads and transport within ports and industrial parks; 3 options (fully autonomous, human in drivers seat to take over, remote human); goal is one remote can control up to 10 pod lorries

China's social credit

China's social credit-Every citizen in China gets a credit score on behavior such as spending habits, filial piety, volunteer activity; criminal record; family planning; jaywalking; internet activity; turnstile violations--can blacklist citizens from loans, jobs, school admission, scholarships; insurance premiums; faster treatment; hotels; and air travel; dozens of local gov'ts are compiling data to rate creditworthiness; 3 factors traditional input (utilities, credit cards, income tax, loan repay); social inputs (described above); online inputs (shopping habits; interactions online; reliability of info posted); China would like to export AI empowered authoritarianism;

College tuition

College tuition-Purdue's predictably flat tuition attracted more students, created a larger student body that increased rev, which allowed hiring of higher quality faculty, research licensed to private sector, alumni gave more. Downside-larger intro class sizes and more competition among departments; other schools tried to shift from full to part time faculty, increase international or out of state students or get more money from the state

Democrats, beliefs

Democrats, beliefs-It represents the most disadvantaged and disenfranchised people in our country—those held down by the overwhelming forces of structural prejudice. But it is difficult to defend the idea that, in general, it is the voice of the economically disenfranchised. Recently, the Brookings Institution and WSJ found that in the US, districts represented by Democrats are responsible for 2/3 of national GDP.

Dividends vs. buybacks

Dividends vs. buybacks-Dividends largely irrelevant to a company's underlying value and shareholders' wealth-just as withdrawing cash from an ATM doesn't make one richer; psychologically-hard cash helps relationship between managers and investors; Covid caused BP and royal Dutch Shell to axe dividends; in US, firms prefer share buybacks; US profits as dividends 41%; buybacks 59%; share buybacks are more tax-efficient ; some companies fear dividend cuts are career suicide but dividends hurt balance-sheets; tech firms worry dividends appear "middle aged"; Microsoft and Apple among 5 biggest payers; Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook don't pay yet

Facial recognition

Facial Recognition-Whether you have a problem with it

Identity politics

Identity politics-not in more gov't vs. less gov't--culture and identity at center than rational policy choices; nativism, isolationism, populism isn't going away; disintermediation of American politics;

Mercado Libre

Mercado Libre-pan-Latin American e-commerce and fintech firm; $50Bn market value; $3.2Bn in revs; sacrifice short term profits for long term growth; e-commerce business earns fee from transactions between buyers and sellers on its platform so it resembles Alibaba; it has a fintech arm, Mercado Pago, 50% of revenues in Brazil; opportunity for QR style digital payments; Amazon is biggest threat--especially in Mexico; another big threat is that COVID convinces physical retailers to build online networks; competition in payments from WhatsApp

Open Source hardware

Open source hardware-most microprocessor chips have designs known as instruction-set architectures (ISA) owned by either Intel or Arm, Japan co. Intel's ISAs power desktop computers, servers, laptops. Arms power 5.1 B smart phones and mobile devices. Near monopoly. Now chips are made with ISA called RISC-v-available to anyone free; metaphor-ISA is not architect's design but it insists electrical sockets and water inlets be put in same places; allows computer architects to standardize sockets and plumbing. Berkeley researches developed for research; proliferating commercially for 3 reasons: less costly due to lack of royalties--important for smart chips for home appliances, factory equip, city infrastruc; (2) don't need lengthy/expensive K negotiations (3) US export controls don't apply-Alibaba and Huawai using; RISC weaknesses-software tools that work with designs less built out than Arm; it's not like Intel which delivers only finished chips after development & manufacturing;

Sharing economy

Sharing economy-don't want to own stuff;want the experience it fulfills; businesses sharing book/cars didn't generate enough cash; now trying to create online marketplaces to match supply and demand. AirBnB, Uber and Bird were poster children but hard to sustain. Uber's rides required big subsidies. Maintaining escooter fleet is expensive; looked to new markets. Uber-autonomous cars & food delivery. Airbnb-running hotels & tv programming; Uber lost $16bn between 2016 & 2019; AirBnb takes cut of rental fee; airbnb has 2 types of supply-hosts who rent out private homes vs. professionals with several properties; people likely to stay closer to home; focus on leaner and cleaner; some people leaving the city to work from airbnb b/c work from home; buy rivals; Uber invested in Lime wants Grubhub; BlaBlaCar and Olio-sharing car rides and unused food

Tencent

Tencent-world's biggest gaming co; $580Bn value; gaming sales from encouraging players to buy virtual clothing, weapons, explosives; pay more for better effectiveness or cosmetic appeal; has stakes in Tesla, Uber, Snapchat, and Spotify; WeChat is its chat service of 1.2bn users, and drives traffic for gaming, streaming music video, digital payments and business services; gaming is biggest cash generator but share falling as Tencent moves into fintech; will build partnerships with foreign firms; e.g., work with Riot to launch "league of Legends" for smartphones; mobile version of "Call of Duty"-Activation Blizzard; they ultimately want to go alone; hasn't generated bad will b/c it is not telling companies what to do; concerns that WeCaht support surveillance and censorship in China; will be an increase in augmented and virtual reality in mobile phones

iQiyi

iQiyi-China's version of Netflix but with as little as $2.87 per month. Competes with Tencent video.

Biodefense

Biodefense-extremist groups want to deliberately spread; don't have facemask supplies; synthetic biology could be used in time to re-create viruses like smallpox or make existing pathogens resistant to antibiotics; hope is we can development platform technologies not only usable for COVID-19 but for biological threats; other concern is that with so many biologists actively hunting for bat viruses, the world is at increasing risk of a lab-derived pandemic; there are 70BSL-4 sites in 30 countries; more are planned-think smallpox 1978 in British lab; foot and mouth disease 2007; Ebola in US in a lower-containment lab; SARS in China--all by accident

Brazil, Bolsonaro explanation

Brazil, Bolsonaro explanation-inequality led to populism; decries "gender moral decay", "communistas", gun ownership, clash with Congress/judiciary; maintain loyal base-evangelicals and military; lock up rivals, fake news, nostalgia for dictatorship, military; anti-establishment (Cardoso), culture war-boys where blue and girls pink; olavo de Carvlho-like Steve Bannon;

Marijuana, legalization of

Marijuana, legalization of-legalization could provoke gangs in countries like Mexico to behave more violently and resort to kidnapping and cooking fentanyl. Demand for importation from Mexico will be lower, however, due to US legalization trends; brings tax revenues; regulatory policy options-ban advertisements and smokng in public; could possess no more than 1 ounce at a time; could grow up to 6 plants at home with a permit; require sellers to trace the product's origin; licenses reserved for farmers in municipalities that were subject to weed eradication schemes; if regulation is too burdensome, it will drive consumers back to illegal market; e.g., requiring licensees to install security cameras and barbed wire

China, social credit scores

China, social credit scores-track online and other activity to determine friendliness to Chinese gov't priorities; scores determine eligibility for loans, gov't employment, housing, transportation benefits, etc.

Cybercrime

Cybercrime-targets include company bosses, judges, journalists, parliament members, gov't officials, and ordinary people; Most attacks are "phishing" where hackers try to trick targets to hand over username /passwords-emails appear to come from friends or colleagues; difficult to know who does it; hacking for hire holds appeal for anyone playing dirty; can cause trouble from a distance, different jurisdiction, minimal friction and low chance of being caught; $1.5tN in revenue or more per year; carried out by organized crime or state actors; N. Koreans have tried to steal more than $1B from Bangladesh banks; tactics-hacking cash machines to spit out notes; they attack ATMs but in volume-e..g, 12k ATMs across 28 countries in 2 hours; called "money mules"; one way to get cash into financial system is take it to casino, convert it to chips, and then exchange it back into cash in the form of a cheque from casino showing legitimate transaction; then it can be deposited without ringing alarm bells;

Freedom of press

Freedom of press-gov'ts warning regulators against giving broadcasters licenses who are critical; withdrawal of gov't advertising, unwarranted tax investigations, spurious criminal charges, hostile takeovers, online trolling, fake-news campaigns; jailing journalists for exposing massacres; no punishment for murderers of journalists; publishing addresses of journalists; entities that own telev channels/newspapers are businesses that depend on gov't for licenses, approvals and loans; libel charges and prison; banning anyone who spreads mistrust of gov't; e.g., china, Vietnam, N. Korea, Philippines, Pakistan; Bangladesh, Sri Lanka; Indonesia; Malaysia

National debts

National debts-mandatory spending is what is rising; 3/4 of structural debt is Medicare/Medicaid and social security; taxes and appropriations don't matter as much; have to raise eligibility ages; higher earners will have to pay more; social security-- 3 variables (1) taxes we pay while working (2) benefits we pay per capita in retirement (3) # of years benefits are paid; benefit index formula--need to have slower growth; don't give big benefits to the old that they can't finance;

Vaping

Vaping-Whether Vaping is good? Nicotine is addictive but not cancer causing. Tobacco is not in vaping.

Video gaming

Video gaming-remove need for dedicated console; run games in distant data-centers and stream results to smartphones, internet connected TVs; lower barriers to adoption; promote subscription service that offers game for up to $15 per month-1/4th cost of typical high end console game; sell consoles at a loss and charge more for high end games (sony0Microsoft well positioned; Amazon "Luna", Facebook "Facebook Gaming" and Google "Stadia" all want to enter gaming too; disruptive--allows over 1B people in Africa to access; streaming could grow gaming market 10x

WeChat

WeChat-potential shut down in US; most used social medial platform in china; used not just for messaging but for reading news, shopping, ordering taxis, flights, bill pay,appointments with doctor,and charity;it is WhatsApp, Facebook, Amazon, Uber, Insta, PayPal, and Expedia rolled into one; in US its much more limited and doesn't use retail, travel, etc. much at all; biggest loss on ban would be connetions with users ; very difficult to migrate networks to other platforms; in US, most users are first generation chinese Americans and migrants and students; ; it censors content that might embarrass Communist party; saturated with pro-party propaganda; can't criticize Hong Kong laws; Tencent owns we chat

Xiaomi

Xiaomi-Better insulated than Huawei from geopolitical storm. Ulike Huawei, which sells telecoms gear to foreign network operators, Xiaomi runs only a consumer operation. Less likely to stoke foreign ire. Big chipmakers like Taiwan's SMIC continue to supply Xiaomi even as they cut ties with Huaei. "Mi" phones. $80B stock market value doubled since June 2020. 47M smartphones. Huawei is 52M. Huawei cut off from mobile chips after export restrictions imposed by the US in Sep . The regs prohibit chip manufactures who products contain US tech, including suppliers outside US, from selling to Huawei.

AI industrial policy

AI Industrial policy--national data strateies which limit data that can leave the country; countries attacking other countries' platforms by hacking their computer systems and spreading misinformation; everybody is more technonationalist; 21st centruy internet more of a splinternet; it is not ust that nationas act in their own interests; they have different preferences and values; for instance regarding privacy; high digital borders behind which data get stuck, however, are nt in the interests of most countries; russia wants to create a "sovereign internt"that can be cut from the rest of the online world at the flip of a switch; but in a splintered world, choice will be limited, costs will rise, and innovation will slow; China loses liest;

Advertising revenues, tech firms

Advertising revenues, tech firms-main source of income for Alphabet and Facebook; under pressure; spending down for ads 15% this year; small-business clients spending less; ecommerce and gaming rev up

AI, limitations of

AI, limitations of-Machine learning (subset) built on 3 things: improved algorithms, more powerful computers to run & more data due to digitalization of society. Yet data is not always readily available. e.g., no COVID-19 database of people movement. Can be expensive to get better computing power & data can contain hidden assumptions that can trip unwary. Second challenge is algorithms. Machine learning uses thousands or millions of examples to train a software model. Systems can recognize images or speech but they are not "intelligent" in way people understand term. Powerful at pattern recognition but not cognitive abilities. Struggle with reasoning, generalizing from rules they discover, emotions, and common sense. Computers don't care for children or resist being switched off. AI is simply pattern discovery

Israel and Palestine

Israel and Palestine-Six day war of 1967 brought West Bank into Israel's control; they already annexed E. Jerusalem and Golan Heights, but not West bank; 400k Israelis live in W. Bank; 3M Palestinians; Israeli leaders calculated annexation would bring global opprobrium, destabilize region, and doom 2 state solution; Netanyahu differs and has wooed hawkish voters to absorb settlements and entire Jordan Valley; Trump wanted to give Israel 30% of West bank; Palestine rejected; Israel is tied to Arab states through common enemy Iran and some gulf states in "political Islam"; Biden and EU oppose unilateral annexation; if Israel grants Palestinians Israeli citizenship they could one day outvote Jews; or it could give minimal rights-like apartheid

Journalism

Journalism, business model was abandon dependence on subscriptions, sell below cost, attract legions of readers and sell to advertisers; "If you are not paying, you are the product." Last 20 years ad revs fells 80% and circulation fallen 50%; revenue from digital advertising has failed to offset profit draining out of print even though online traffic surged; Google and Facebook new moguls of media; Google accounts for 90% of search ad revs and Facebook 50% of all display ads; those two have disgorged 40% of online traffic going to papers; ad-fueled online platforms could hasten decline of reliable news media; Facebook and Google offering a handout by pledging $1BN to curate news content for sites (pay licensing fees); Axios thriving as exception

Liberal/conservative

Liberal-conservative-focus on classical liberal principles of pluralism, constitutionalism, and free trade. Will find significant financial support in tech and finance sectors. Republicans who embrace racial and ethnic diversity and are in favor of economic competition, market mechanisms to protect the environment, internationalism, and aggressive measures to fight poverty

Precision medicine

Precision Medicine-Whether precision medicine promotes inequality? Based on genetics, lifestyle, environment--more targeted therapy. More segmentation so higher drug prices--maybe more inequality

Softbank

Softbank-Japanese; Vision of digital transformation and ubiquitious AI; ; CEO Son Masayoshi (Masa); VisioFund-$100B struggled with implosion of WeWork; sold Arm to Nvidia; divested of Sprint; 3 scenarios: (1) take SoftBak private (2) take stake in one or more publicly listed tech giants (3) double down on Vision Fund; buyout unlikely but could be structured as a bridge loan financed by seling more of firm's stake in alibaba and other assets, but it would shrink SoftBank, and reduce ability for Masa to invest in other growth areas

Banks crises

Banks crises-credit card lending up 2-3x. 1/6th of small businesses have deferred pmt; cash strapped businesses drawing down credit lines; coming loan losses; bank balance sheets; 2008 was about home mortgages and collateralized debt obligations; Dodd Frank was supposed to make banks borrow less, make fewer long-sot bets; and be more transparent; Fed began more stress tests; reformed Credit agencies; CDOs are out but CLOs are in--loans to businesses-like sub-prime; Powell and Mnuchin believe risk is contained within CLOs; if leveraged loans imploded, we are in trouble; 67% are b rated but 2/3rd of those will lose money in adverse economic situations; credit agencies didn't assume mass default; defaults could go beyond lower layers; pension funds, mutual funds, life insurance heavily exposed; Enron like activity to keep risky bets off financial statements?-variable interest entities; loans to shopping malls and office parks; prices of CLOs will spiral down; banks will lack cash; sell assets for pennies; could lose loans to buy house, car, college; lose credit

WWIII

WWIII, Most people think WWIII is unlikely b/c (1) economic interdependence between 2 countries reduces risk of violent conflict. Counter: Just before WWI, Europe was very economically and culturally connected--e.g., UK and Germany. British elites saw Germany's econ power as a menace--that their econ success was rusult of unfair trade and industrial policies; saw Germany's political culture as antithetical to liberal values; Germany didn't want to challenge UK but wanted "status" as equal; why war? b/c major global power felt its advatage slip to rising challenger; US is also decoupling more from China. (2) nuclear deterrence. MAD prevented Hot War. Counter: miniaturized, lowyield nuclear warheads and accurate delivery systems make a "limited" nuclear war possible. (3) liberal international order would preserve peace. UN, WTO, IMF and spread of peaceful cooperation. Counter: Political changes in countries such as populism against current order of elites. System less capable of mediating conflict. Beijing will want US to accommodate its internal affairs by not condemning Beijinging's Hong Kong, Xinjiang, S. China Sea, and Taiwan. US won't do that b/c that would acknowledge end to US primacy

Wildfires

Wildfires-bigger and more common; blazes in 2010s 68 m acres on average; up from 3.3M in 90s. Fire season 3x longer than 70s. $3.7B per year in Cali to fight fires. Cost of rebuilding, treating casualties, and restoration is 10x that. 2018 burned 10s of Ks of buildings. More homes build next to forests in what is called the "wildland-urban interface". Pricey housing pushed people to cheaper land in wilderness. Climate change is extending dry season which stores fuel for fires. Chronic megadrought in CA in which dry years become more comon and wet ones scarcer making matters worse. 60-90% of fires spread by embers lifted by strong winds rather than flames in front; Recommendation-build near water; concrete, adobe, or stuco instead of wood; heat resistant windows; 5ft non combustible zone around house; composite panels; gaps under roofs can be blocked up to stop embers; open agricultural lands serve as a buffer; bury electricity lines; bunkers for trapped residents; Portland air quality 3x more than New Dehli India; world gets hotter-->forests get dryer

Authoritarianism

Authoritarianism-e.g. today-->Xi Jinping and Uyghurs; Modi-->Hindu nationalism without respect for Muslims; Duterte in Phillipines-->supports murder of criminal suspects; Hungary'sPM crushes democratic institutions and says opponents part of Jewish plot; Brazil's Bolsonaro--celebrates torture; Thailand's kind-->absolute monarchy; foreign policy: disinformation, espionage, assassinations, cyber-attacks & proxies. E.g., what Russians do; domestic policy: disinform; crack down on protests

China belt and road motives

China belt and road motives-economic clientelism; Beijing offers countries loans from Chinese banks for large scale infrastructure, Once in debt, china forces leaders to align with china's foreign-policy agenda to displace US. Not a win win. One winner. China trades debt for equity to control ports, airports, dams, power plants, and communication networks; buy up ports throughout world; 51% of Greek port; Israeli ports; maritime dominance; 65% of world's pop rails, roads, ports, infrastructure connecting China with Eurasia; 40% of global GDP; project military and intelligence; they admire our military ability to deploy in hours to protect supply lines from Africa and LA; want outposts like Djibouti to protect raw materials;

China, EU policy

China, EU policy-avoid being sucked into superpower struggle between US and China; hard to get shared view; and countries are split internally; Germany has closest ties; Sweden is loan player wanting sanctions on China over Hong Kong; France wants to magnify its power as geopolitical player; EU stern and introduce rule against foreign company takeovers that receive unfair support from governments; China wants to draw a wedge between EU; Greece is China friendly & EU needs unanimity in foreign policy; EU does subsidize its farmers; will EU let Huawei build critical infrastructure there? What if China invades Taiwan? stuck between isolationist US & authoritarian China; possible France ditch Huawei and use Nokia & Erickson in their networks; Britain sides with US; Germany's Deutsche Telekom is country's largest mobile provider and relies heavily on Huawei equipment;

China, Hong Kong

China, Hong Kong-national security law introduced concerning crimes such as subversion and secession; bill was drafted behind closed doors without HK administrators knowing or legislature conferred; disregarding one country, two systems; can send agents into HK; China will send secret agents into Taiwan; no juries required and can try cases in secret; judges will be gov't appointed; extradition allowed; could be executed; sedition, subversion, terrorism could be applied broadly to petty, non-violent activity such as flying a flag Hong Kong or attending a rally; People want two things: choose how to be governed and be subject to rule of law; china fears both; China used this to lock up dissidents in Uighurs and Tibetans; rule by fear to begin; China had promised Hong Kong impartial courts and free speech; fear Chinese can impose party's whims separate from rule of law; Hong Kon Policy Act requires US to annually certify territory should be treated separate from china; Pompeo won't agree; more difficult to hold informal primary elections for legislat council

China, South China sea

China, South China sea-it is bigger than the Mediterranean; wants to convert to Chinese lake; contested by Brunei, Malaysia, Philippine, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China; China built 12 sp kilom of artificial islands on speck of reef and rock; ; fortified by missile and bomber-sized bunkers; China has coastguard vessels and maritime militia to protect is through intimidation; they assert right to fisheries and oil and gasfields within waters claimed by other countries; Chinese boats in 2020 have rammed and sunk Philipine and Vietnamese fishing boats and harassed a rig drilling in Malaysian waters; Pompeo recently declared that China's claims to offshore resources were unlawful and that it was bullying; Duterte of the Philippines is willing to turn a blind eye to secure Chinese investment; US's priority is to ensure free passage for shipping without asking for permission; The Hague ruled against China in an international ruling; UN Convention of law of seas;

China, Trump and Biden attitudes

China, Trump and Biden attitudes-Pro Trump-indifference to ideology, reluctance to condemn Chinese repression in Xinjiang, dislikes military adventures abroad; doesn't work with allies; Negative Trump-pursues only his interests; press China on unfair market rules and promotion of industrial policies that support local companies at expense of foreign firms; Pro Biden-champion of economic interdependence as stability, not danger, won't push as fast into economic decoupling and give China longer to diversify and become more self-resilient; help in climate change; Negative Biden-more competent, thus more dangerous; harsh on human rights abuses; will work with allies; some want to see US falter with weakening democracy at home & loss of allies; others fear premature collapse of global trade

China, corruption

China, corruption-50M communist functionaries, civil servants and local officials; officials such as Bo Xolair took gifts such as homes in France to fees for son's education at British boarding schools; 4 types of graft (1) petty theft-traffic policeman demanding a fine; (2) grand theft-dictator looting central bank (3) speed money-shopkeeper pays a bribe for a permit(4) access money-bribes and favors offered to powerful officials and families in return for contracts or other privileges; often directed toward property deals; difficult to address b/c no free press and criticize party officials; bribes paid from one official to another to get promotion; helping a relative jump queue for housing

China, decoupling impact of

China, decoupling impact of-Chinese/US software/internet universes heading light speeds toward separation; they were never very connected-US software firms made just 3% of sales in China last year;China keeps internet users isolated; TikTok creates few jobs and pays little tax here; software exceptions have been Microsoft's office software & Google's apps like gmail/maps, found on Chinese made phones;hardware is moving much more slowly b/c it is more globally integrated and involves $1T of physical plant and $4000b of inventories; e.g. Apple's 5G handset will rely on China's manufac cluster;there are shifts-e.g., US restrictions on Huawei;flow of chinese foreign direct invest will shrink $1T due to tougher audits for US listed firms; US firms will suffer-5% of global sales for US firms in China; GM sells more cars in China than US; Tesla 25-40% of elec cars made in China; Nike double digit growth 22 straight qs; US firms have $700bn assets in china; and $500bn in domestic sales there;US tech giants will get hit b/c they rely on Chinese demand and suppliers; China 1/4 of global sales in electronic components, internet software, to semiconductors; Qualcomm, chip giant, earns 2/3 of rev in china; lobbying furiously to soften Huawei sanctions (big client); 15% of Apple's revs if WeChit gets blocked, Apple will have to block it, and Chinese will chose Weixin over Iphones could impact global demand 20-25%; China will punish US allies-S.Korea, Australia, and Canada; china will give tax breaks and loans to semiconductor companiesApple setting up plants in India; TSMC, Taiwanese chip firm, building plant in Arizona;

China, environment

China, environment-halt rise in emissions by 2030; "carbon neutrality" by 2060; but not climate neutrality (methane); China source of 27% of global emissions; may be close to peaking; 60% of electricity now comes from burning coal; it an increase nuclear-power production; needs to find ways to capture CO2 at scale--no one has figured that out yet

China, financial embargo of

China, financial embargo of-US refuses China's access to CHIPS-the NY clearinghouse; It forces SWIFT, Belgium based enabler of cross border payments, to expel china. It slaps a financial embargo on China-threatening to punish and foreign or domestic financial institution that uses dollars--as virgually all do--but continues to transact with the embargoed firms. China retaliates by shutting western banks and firms and limists access to natural resources and basic goods. Blocks west from infrasturcture projects. Considers selling $1.1TN stock in US treasury bills--but this is less likely b/ China has little interest in destabilizing its system of currency reserves; its also possible that US bond market--which is liquid--could absorb i

China, how US should respond

China, how US should respond-alliance with allies to adhere to global trade rules; economic decoupling-agree to only buy products from free nations--AI, telecomm, semicond,Pharma to slow China growth; cut of US stock exc state backed entities that cheat, steal, or spy; 5G open source strategy; welcome Chinese citizenship; penalize US comps that aid China; fed pension can't invest overseas; support Taiwan; decry Uighut/Tibet human rights abuses;decry authoritarianism; sanctions on politburo members; play long game-not immediate benefits for narrow groups like Midwest soybean/wheat farmers; tariffs are only option--UN won't do anything; what are our levers of power?--innovation dominance; maintain sea lines in S. China sea; improve trade/diplomatic ties with India, Korea, Jap, Mongol, Vietnam, contain them; have eyes/ears where they are; offer tax credits to comps who leave China manufact &reinvest here; mandate % made in US; heavy handed mandates may not be the best; states can do it; capital is a coward--capital will flow out b/c more risk in China; US-diplomacy and econ partnerships vs. China forced predatory loan payments; require Chinese firms to have open governance in Western subsidiaries-local shareholders, foreign directors with real autonomy to show independ from state; avoid misunderstand, miscalc, provocation-China finances some of US deficit-5%; exports only 17% GDP; strike deal with Europe--to create China proof technosphere-US gets secruity guarantees and interests in rule making bodies; US would recognize Euopean privacy, regulatory concerns, and taxes on tech titans

China, human rights

China, human rights. Chinese Gulog. 12M Uighurs live in Xinjiang. They are Muslim and were thrown into Gulogs for praying too much; showing too much enthusiasm for Turkish culture; refusing to watch state television; China says necessary to prevent terrorism; inmates forces to criticize Islam, shave beards, eat pork, speak Mandarin instead of pork; speak Mandarin instead of Turkic tongues, praise Xi, embrace atheism, families report suspicious behavior. Firms/sports leagues doing bus in China have ignored activists;send Uighurs to forced labor in factories; miserable conditions; ethnically segregated dorms; watchtowers, salaries below min wage or no pay at all; forced abortions and sterilizations;Xthey send big-brother "Hans" to sleep in the beds of the wives of Uighurs; use Ai-powered sensors to monitor behavior on devices; nanny apps; digital inactivity raises suspicions-monitor which door they leave; if they have stopped talking to neighbors; Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps (XPCC), 3M-strong paramilitary-style business in Western China-100k strong militia; 400k XPCC farmers harvest 1/3 China's cotton & big textile industry; hard for western firms like Tommy/Calvin K to audit; 100s of k of kids separated from parents; if call home-->arrested; claims legitimacy from providing stability ad econ growth to majority--not indiv rights, dignity or freedom; injiang grows 80% of China's cotton so few apparel firms speak up; we shouldn't import apparel made in Xinjiang; boycott 2022 Olympics; offer asylum; we can discuss human rights without stymieing trade, pandemic, and climate change talks;

China, intent

China, intent-19th/20th cent were military & econ dominance aberrations; think Ming fleet 1368-1644 middle kingdom; secure domestic stability-military civil fusion to steal western IP (vaccine IP) & undercut US defense companies; espionage; gain steel market price below cost, artificially lower currency, massive gov't subsidies &bribes-- tripled output in two decades; doing the same in nanotech, telecom, AI, & basic mining & manufac; near monopolies-Indonesia shut nickel exports to competitors after China acquired stainless steel co;have US provide China with raw materials, ag, &energy for China to create cutting edge industrial & consumer products; unite gov't, military, economic, & academic; create modern day vassal states-kingdoms trade & enjoy peace in exchange for made in China by 2025, belt & road initiative (place China at hub of communication/trade),build parallel financial system to avoid dollar-payments & US sanctions; spread propaganda/disinfo; allow Trump insults to feed nationalist anger; exploit tensions between US/allies;Hong Kong;maintain military spend/advan in Pacific-Philip. support China; claim democracy unable to handle challenges;deflect blame from mishandling COVID; authoritarianism is model; (1) tight control of debt spending (2) more efficient admin state-trim red tape; bankruptcy and patent reform; (3) supply chain self-sufficiency in semiconductors; Xinomics; build a fully domestic supply chain without scaring off investment; "dual circulation"-keep China open to world while reinforcing own market; Exports have gone from 36% of GDP to 18% in last 14 years-2020; focus more on consumption; make foreign powers dependent o their goods to avoid pressure;

China, Taiwan

China,Taiwan--destabilize ports and air force docks. Attack American nodes on Okinawa and Guam, destroy US planes on ground and disable runways; sever communication links to gain info superiority; then amphibious assault on them; US submarines knock out some force with torpedoes, bur surface level carriers & frigates hammered by Chinese anti-ship missiles Taiwan--knock out 12-14 ships; mines; tunnels along few beaches they could land; Test Taiwan's defenses with aerial sorties; nigh-time exercise; China developed policy of economic engagement in 90s; direct flights; Taiwan is China's largest investment partner; China's fear is if they were too heavy handed that they would kill golden goose-kill access to capital and assets; China wants Core-state sovereignty and territorial integrity to regain; Hong Kong Opium wars 97; Macau 99; Tibet; have not recovered Taiwan and S. China sea; China impose sanctions on Lockheed for selling arms to Taiwan

Cyberwarfare

Cyberwarfare-target IP, electoral systems, drugmakers, cryptocurrency; motives-theft (banks), digital disruption (infrastructure); sabotage (nuclear program); political warfare (US election); sometimes states use non-state actors as proxies; US's responsibilities are scattered across agencies; more gov't monitoring of critical infrastructure in exchange for standard compliance; new cyber-director at white house; cooperation between public and private sectors; preemptive attack vs. punish; take flight to rivals; drive wedge between US and friends by routing attacks via allies; use of shame; financial, political, and industrial espionage

Energy independence

Energy independence-we keep military presence not b/c we worry as much about democracy--oil is strategic; we are net exporter of manufactured goods and energy volatility is bad; if we lose energy independence, bad; if argument is to save planet, US should be one producing energy; energy demand will go up 25%--if it is not US, it will be Saudi Arabia--who has 40% higher CO2 emissions; Boston people would rather import on big ship (not on solar but on diesel) across Atlan Ocean to heat the homes; live in a home with natural gas--if not, will have to use black fuel oil; happy to go with wind and solar (all from plastic by the way)--battery that goes into Tesla--takes more CO2 than the average fuel efficient car will use in the first 50k; Tesla-built by oil; powered by coal; subsidized by taxpayer; China will become dependent on St. of Hormuz

Environment, and humans

Environment and humans-even if we abandon planes, trains & automobiles, the world would have more than 90% of the necessary decarbonization left to get on track of a climate 1.5 C warmer than before Industrial Rev; Gates told Romney: even if the U.S. shut down every power plant and every car in the country, CO2 emissions would continue to rise worldwide.Currently, 22% industry (8% of global emissions come from manufact. concrete, & another 6% comes from manufacturing steel.) 27% come from heat and electricity; 28% transportation/fuel cumbustion; 12.3% residential/commercial; 10% agriculture-livestock, soils; 11.6% land use/forestry; Natural gas 33%, petroleum 46%, coal 21%; Although our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons moving through the carbon cycle each year, it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed. The rest remains in the atmosphere, and as a consequence, atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15 to 20 million year; about 2/3 of atmospheric/ocean temperature increase due to humans; CO2 emissions and radiation the sun emits increase; volcanic events and some human polution decrease;

Environment, policy

Environment policy-carbon polluters pay for neg externalities; cut fossil fuel subsidies; carbon tax; cap/trade; tax revenues can help gov't finances; retrofit ineff buildings; nuclear over electricity; high speed trains over planes; take advan of low int rates; carbon prices--market induced incentives to cut emissions; use nuclear; challenge-people don't like taxes; don't want to hurt livelihood; only 20% of prices currently in pricing scheme-need price in range of $40-$80 on all greenhouse emissions to keep rise in temp below preindustrial; median is $15; no country more than half; need more alternatives to emitting carbon to change behavior;comps that need to emit gases can buy permission; Passing laws to restrict washing machine size & how many watts your lightbulb won't help global warming,"Only way to reduce planet's CO2 emissions is develop tech across all CO2 emitting things ... that are low-emitting and cheaper than current tech."China & India won't adopt low-emitting tech if they cost a lot. Their biggest challenge is to get power to powerless areas. Incentivizing comps to reduce emissions more effective than regs; need negative emission tech; bioenergy attractive;

Environment predictions

Environment predictions-cyclones need 27 deg ocean surface temp; area will inc but hurricanes may be more rare b/c the wind will not blow similar speed near surface and at greater altitudes; % hurricanes cat 4/5 will increase; hurricane rainfall will inc b/c warmer air holds more moisture; heat can kill-humans cool by sweating but difficult in humidity;WBTS of 35 degrees C is lethal & possible in subtropics; inc temps lower labor product &violence; extreme heatwaves; warming slows weather's ability to move/conditions stick-week vs. month high temps;crop yields down 5-30% by 2030 and water stress; pests survive hurt yields; risk and severity of fires ink; drying out rivers, lakes, aquifers; sea rising-expand as absorb heat; meltwater from glaciers on land; ice sheets; erode costs/increase flooding; 5bn people could have water shortages 1 month per year; human expansion will cause humans to take habitat of animals--make us closer--more pandemics; seaport damage from high water levels will choke global trade--as they handle 80% of world's goods--will raise price of fuel and food; 40-80cm rise in sea levels; 25% inc in hot days; 36% jump in rainfall; each add degree warming inc impact; more flooding

Environment, economy

Environment, economy-Estimates that global warming of 1.5 deg Celsius above preindust levels would cause ~$50T in econ damage by 2100. The warmer the planet gets, the more expensive consequences; without action temps may rise 4 degrees C by 2100. Econ activity across 22 vital US bus sectors could decline 1/2Tr annually. US and India would suffer most; destroying US's physical infrastruct: In 2019 alone, the US has >1 dozen $B weather events, and 2020 might be worse. CA and OR fires are incinerating homes, businesses, schools, power lines, and roads. Gulf Coast hurricanes swamping mobile homes and carrying away cars & livestock. US faces potential task of relocating towns/cities & fortifying others, trapped in endless cycle of destruction & rebuilding. Damaging US productivity too, sapping away output from Ms of workers and Ks of CO; estimates that every workday above 86 degrees F costs a given county $20 per person in lost income; workers who toil outside, such as construction workers and farmers, face the worst and harshest effects.

Environment, science

Environment, science-combustion turns carbon into co2 and heat; 34% energy comes from oil, 27% coal; 24%gas; nuclear/hydro all else 15%. 9.bbn tons of carbon out of ground into atmosphere. Seas and plants suck up half of all extra Co2 industry puts in atmosphere; Amount in atmosphere is growing; global rate of photosynthesis is 5% higher than 30 yrs ago; earth is getting greener; improved crop yields; not enough to compensate from damage to agric by higher temps and altered rainfall; oceans harmed more-more dissolved co2 makes seawater more acidic; damage reefs; warm water absorbs less co2 than cold; ability to offset emissions weakens; could take 1k years to return to normal; Co2 captures heat

Food security

Food security-Gov'ts fix prices, control distribution. EU's ag tariffs are 4x those of non-farm imports. 6 companies such as Cargill and COFCO from Beijing shift food around world. Concentration and gov't intervention, & volatility in climate and commodity market mean system can misfire; bad harvests/weather & higher energy costs push up food prices and can cause panics about shortages and export bans; riots and distress in emerging markets; bottlenecks in port supplies; US & Europe need 1M migrant workers to bring; harvest; give poor cash--gov'ts shouldn't stockpile & ban exports; will escalate; fruit picking robots

Gangs

Gangs-MS-13 and rival Barrio 18; much of El Salvador, Guatemala,Honduras; started when El Salv civil war from 80-92 caused them to flee to US; known for heavy metal and tatoos; violence goes down as country's negotiate with imprisoned leaders in exchange for perks; streets in El Salvador belong to gangs, not gov't. MS-13 is US export; thrive in these conditions: poverty, impunity, culture of violence, lots of YM, and too few opportunities; they squeeze rents from tortilla carts & telcom firms; put them in prison and without rehab they become gang training grounds; support can sway elections; "MS-13's mottos is 'Mata, roba, viola, controla'; money: murder, racketeering, drug trafficking, sex trafficking & human trafficking including prostitution; extortion as a means for income; Once they get here, they get these individuals and extort money from their families. They're also into extortion for protection of this neighborhood or that neighborhood; extortion from bus and taxi drivers--I am calling from x gang, if you want to drive you need to pay x; they also collect money from illicit businesses like drugs; car theft and resale and proceeds to launder money; prostitution;

Germany, US troop presence

Germany, US troop presence-US will withdraw 9500 of 34500 troops; occupation has cemented bond between NATO allies; Reason: Germany free rides on US protection, spending little on defense; need to send troops to Asia; Germany is hub to 5 of 7 garrisons; hub for directing drone strikes in Afghan, Pakist, Somalia, and Yemen. Cutting troops would encourage Russian aggression & undermine US military effectiveness; poll among Germans is that 1/2 favor their relationship with China as much as US; less than half of Germans believe US presence makes them safer; gulf is widening on energy, trade, security, and China

Immigrant Visa program

Immigrant Visa Program-not allowing best/brightest to stay would incentivize US cos like Google, Apple, and Amazon to hire overseas. Essentially "Make Canada great" or "Make China Great" campaign; H1B visas used by employees at tech companies; J-1 exchange visa for summer temp jobs; ; H-2 are for lower-skilled, often outdoor workers;

Inflation and low unemployment

Inflation and low unemployment-known as Philipps curve; theory-when unemployment low and economy strong--workers will demand pay raises over inflation and improvements in productivity; if firms pass these wages on to customers by increasing prices, inflation will rise; if central banks want to prevent, they will raise interest rates, slowing economy and curbing pressure; opposite also true; most central banks target inflation at 2%; complications (1) Milton Friedman: "It's all about expectations": If workers think inflation is 2%, they ask for 3-4% wage increase; if they think 10%, they ask for 11%; expectations added to Phillips curve (2) imports-unemployment at home little bearing on wages abroad; price of anything consumers buy from rest of world determined by other forces. Imports added (3) unemployment figures misstate amount of slack workforce (4) inertia-hard to change restaurant menu for 2% price increase; Central banks manipulate philips curve by cutting interest rates when inflation falls; but they cannot lower rates much below zero, or people will take money out of banks; heavy savings-->too much money chasing too few investments; Central banks can create unlimited money but cannot force people to spend; they can only purchase financial not consumer goods;

Inflation

Inflation-Central banks have never created so much money in so little time; US monetary base grew $1.7trn; propped up asset markets; financed much of emergency spending; too much money chasing too few dollars--current production is limited too; Hawks fear inflation and say difference between 2009-today's stimulus ended up in households' bank accounts; counter-households are saving more and slashing consumption; concern should be too little inflation; only after economies and job markets have healed will inflation become a risk

Journalism, future/objectivity of

Journalism, future/objectivity of-reporters meant to be objective, but right & wrong now seems obvious; "both sides journalism" is a failed experiment; objectivity is an "inherited shibboleth"; Ben Franklin & Alex Hamilton were partisan in news; why objectivity? AP stories served diverse papers so stuck to facts; even handed papers allow partisan opeds; advertisers didn't like partisan papers; Pulitzer believed Republic & objectivity rise or fall together; 4 reasons why not working: (1) "bothsideism" misleading in Trump era; (2) concern objective views are white, male (3) social media gives dissenters megaphone; readers bathed in partisan online content vs. detached print; wets appetite for opinion; hard to discern news/opinion; (4) commercial reasons-as ad revs lead away to search engines & social networks, newspapers rely more on paid readers; unlike advertisers readers love opinion; (5)digital publication make papers compete nationally catering to loyalties of a certain kind ; left-leaning Nyers may switch to Wash Post if it upsets them; now favor of moral clarity, independ, empathy; concerns-self-righteous; crude subjectivity & enlightened few to inform everyone else; risk losing journalism

Mercenaries

Mercenaries-Mozambique uses to tackle jihadist insurgents; some mercenaries previously worked in special forces known for ruthlessness; have been used in past to support secessionist movements, and mount coups to overthrow dictators; UN used to ban; western gov'ts have winked when it served their interests; used to prop up shaky African regimes; in Sudan used to sustain dictator Al-Bashir; hired to guard diamond mines; train army; provide bodyguards for President; Wagner is Russian mercenary group; fight Boko Haram; advantages (1) plausible deniability--allows Russia/others to sponsor military activity without appearing; (2) experienced, efficient,flexible; (3)cheaper-paid by job rather than pensions; can use for logistics/landmines/sec training

Microfinance

Microfinance-$124B industry; 140M customers; instead of demanding collateral, which few poor people have, loan officers judged creditworthiness by assessing expected income; lending often went to groups of people who monitored each other better than banks could; has gone from microcredit to microfinance; high repayment rates of 90% have lured for-profit lenders, some of which demand land titles as collateral, charge extortionate rates, and use heavy-handed tactics to collect payments; Pros-without access to credit, more people will turn to loan sharks and pawnbrokers; state coffers are empty and people need to pay for food; letting poor invest will help unleash their inner entrepreneur and earn wa out of poverty; Cons-repayments have plummeted due to COVID; recommendations-donors and investors should consider moratoriums or reschedulings; loosen reserve requirements; tolerate forebearance as long as there is a path back to normal; ; properly assess borrowers' ability to repay; transparency on rates and fees; protection against harassment;

Middle East

Middle East-Goal is for Saudis to be our support against Iran, Israel ally, & buyers of American arms & property; Saudis could be a proxy; decimation of America's shale oil could renew dependence on Saudi oil; US production expected to fall in half; Egypt/Jordan/Bahrain have health-care crises and Saudi's/US can't help; Iran will exploit; Algeria needs $157 a barrel; Oman $87; Kuwait's deficit could be 40% of GDP; demand dropped due to COVID; but world moving away from fossil fuels; high unemployed rates; external remittances will lower to non-oil producing states such as Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt; Arab countries produce the cheapest oil so they stand to gain market share; Dubai UAE is where all the educated want to live and go

Militias (3rd world)

Militias (3rd world)-rogue police officers stole fed land-sold lots to poor; for fee, provide transport, water, cooking gas, cable, internet; use heavy weapons, run extortion rackets; kill opposition, "no violence if paid"-Bolsonaro;connections to state (unlike drug traffickers); untouchable b/c they are the law; kill pol. opponents; in Brazil-began in 1990s to tackle drug gangs; now=mafia; popular with politicians b/c they get out the vote; power thwarts investigations; political ties take public money; torture journalists; police and army officers, city, and state politicians have ties; federal judge murdered; city's give in and issue title for irregular occupied fed land; steal sand and petrol from pipelines; drug gangs auction for rights to sell; extort from taxi drivers;

Minimum wages

Minimum wages-79% economists once believed min wages increas unemployment among young & low-skilled workers; we now have lots of data to understand how min wages affect economy; argument that minimum wages hurts jobs comes from suppy & demand; if labor is more expensive, suppliers will want less; if employer pays less than marginal product of labor, it will lose him; if the gov't pays more, the firm will lose money by employing him; reality more complex; firms don't know how much each worker contributes; few workers can find new job on spot; markets aren't perfectly competitive-there is no single wage at which worker has pick of employers; firms pay less than marginal rev product; depends on who has negotiating power-minwage stops firms in strong negotiating positions from squeezing workers; cos won't employ workers at loss but below that depends on: can co replace workers with machines? Can it pass costs to customers by raising prices? Foreign competition? Manufacturing-not good; restaurants better-little automation & foreign compet; monopsony-one dominant buyer and many suppliers-monopsonist can set prices artificially "low"; higher wages can lead to more employment--help people want to look for a job--works in monopsony; New Jer-restaurants 90s min wage;gains mostly low pay earners with above-median experience; can inc supervisor wages

Nazi

Nazi--how long would you have stayed in; stay and get carve outs; put head down, opportunistic?; platform; union and right to native self-determination; land and territory colonies for surplus population; German blood for German citizenship; self-sufficiency (no welfare); German newspapers; science of citizenship taught in education

Neuralink

Neuralink-Elon Musk's goal of moving objects by the power of thought; what-read brain's electrical segnals by placing electrodes non-invasively on scalp or invasive insertion of wires into scalp or brain; we have 85bn nerve cells and Trillions of connections between them; invasive intertion gives higher resolution reading of nerves but more risk; Neuralinks carries 1k electrode threds, communicates wirelessly through and recharded by induction; no skin peetrating cable; Robot implants it; received FDA breakthrough designation; uses- might be employed to control a prosthetic limb, or even a real one that brain or spinalcord injury has depried of its normal nerve connections; might be used to control non-medical machinery; could also give intructions to the brain; could treat people with depression or anxiety; goal-download memories and form sybiosis with AI

Nuclear weapons

Nuclear weapons-China secrecy; DF-41S new intermont missile can hit anywhere in US;China has 300;US/Russia 4k each; China has never participated in arms-control; in 2019-US pulled out of medium range missile treaty fired from land ostensibly b/ of Russian cheating; reality-to match China's buildup; New Start Treaty (2010) for US and Russia caps strategic long-range weapons and inspect each other 18 per year; US wants China to sign up before renewal;want China to feel pressure to join; but US &Russia don't want to cut to china's level; incentive to sign NewStart for Chinese is that if not could start an arms race and make US become secret;focus on all deliv systems (ground/sub/bomber reach longer than 500km);start small-cyber-attacks on nukess;AI;need trust

Plastics

Plastics-process natural gas/liquids (butane,ethane,propane)-->to get to basic plastics; petrochemicals; why boycott plastics? Laptops wouldn't exist; environmentalists don't make sense; if you remove fossil fuels entire room would disappear; synthetics in clothing, paints, carpets, lighting, furniture, air generation; boeing 21tnnes Huntsman material per plane; testing kids, ventilators, PPE comes; tents and sandals environmentalists use; SanFran-cotton usable grocery vs 20k plastic bags for environmental impact-production, cleaning it; plastic straw is not problem--problem is if it gets in ocean; brush teeth with plastic;better than glass products; insulation is great-keep warm/cool without burning more energy; polyurthathane insulation-have to put two chemicals together--comes from recycling bottles; Con-150M tons of plastic in ocean=weight of all fish; it is literally raining plastic

Oil vs. electric cars

Oil vs. electric cars-2010s US oil output doubled and gas increased 50%; US #1 producer of both; post WWII US demand outstripped supply and needs to secure supply drove much US involvement in Mid East; US supply growth allowed us to apply sanctions to Iran, Venez, and Russia; #1 lack of demand not supply will cause production of oil, coal, and gas to dwindle; #2climante induced switch from fosil fuels;#3electrification-fosil fuels use heat to move things; we need processes and devices that rely on combustion to now use currents and bateries; 1/5th to 1/2 of all energy by 2050; value of US shaels fell 50% since Jan 2020; buyer's market-supply outstrips demand; Saudi and russia price war slassing prices to china to compete; still buying power exposes one to import reliance; straits of Hormuz or US Navy could close; china lacks in oil makes up with industrial policy--supports domestic coal product, nuc power, largest renewables sector; China investied in mines Congo, Cile tfor minerals for solar panels, elect vehicles; becoming electrosstate; but their coal makes them biggest polluter; but batteries require niche materials and thre is a financing shortage for mines

Oil

Oil-Saudi Arabia/Russia price war; 20% demand dip; greater prod in Guyana, Norway, &Brazil; US now #1 producer; energy worst sector S&P 4 of last 6 years; concern tanks will spill over; OPEC +=Russia&OPEC; crude vs. refineries;ExxonMobil and large oil companies resist tariffs and production caps that help less profitable rivals; limiting output to help suppliers vs. helping consumers; oil state senators withholding support for Saudi military aid;Russia needs $42 a barrel to balance budget; Saudi $84; Iran, Venezuela, Libya vulnerable;Trump failed to get Saudi/Russia to cut output; Saudis don't like Shale US oil-unique;US $45prod cost; OPEC cut supply to increase prices from $17 to $42 in Jun '20. long-term supply constraints-global investment down; fracking has unleashed supply in US; 10-15% of oil wells shut May '20 will never reopen; returns for energy firms fallen below cost of capital-at $100 per barrel 90% Brent oil could be extracted at 10% ROI; today $40 too costly to produce; investors not getting great ROI; product improvements hard; OPEC 70% reserves but 40% market share; Russia refused to slash output &enable US to freeload higher prices

Pandemics

Pandemics-viral speck larged in a bat in China; most viruses originate in animals and when jump to humans they used to stay local but have gone global (SARA, Zika, Ebola); inevitability of disease emergencies; why? Human actions; scope and pace of development; we are living longer, consuming more energy, expanding; nature is declining at unpresedented rates; 75% of land and 66% of oceans are impacted; ecosystems collapsing and biodiversity disappearing; pandemic is nature's revenge; why diseases jumping from animals to humans? b/c people are living closer to wild animals; people are more mobile and spreading good, info, and diseases;

Parochialism, Westover

Parochialism, Westover-I used to think of Idaho as parochial, and of cities as sophisticated. And in many ways, I was right. You can get a better education in a city; you can learn more technical skills, and more about certain types of culture. But as I've grown older, I've come to believe that there are many ways a person can be parochial. Now I define parochial as only knowing people who are just like you—who have the same education that you have, the same political views, the same income. And by that definition, New York City is just about the most parochial place I've ever lived. I have become more parochial since I came here.It's astonishingly difficult in this city to be truly close to someone who is not in your same socioeconomic group. For me, it's the single most striking fact about living here. Meaningful interactions are difficult to engineer. The divide is deep. And it is largely between those who sit in the front of the Uber and those who sit in the back of it.

Voting, who to choose

Voting, who to choose-Seek for pluralists, not purists. They make many voters who disagree with them feel heard and respected. They practice the craft of politics, building majority coalitions to get things done. Politics is downstream from morality and culture. Warren represents a policy wrong turn, in my view, but policies can be argued about and reversed. Trump represents a much more important and fundamental threat — to the norms, values, standards and soul of this country. Once a nation has lost its heart, mind and soul, it is very hard to get these things back.(David Brooks What if Warren vs. Trump); President is guardian of US values, conscience of nation; US's voice in world

Political parties

Political parties-1)Care/harm-more concerned about oppression; suffering and vulnerable groups; stand up for public interest against corporations that impose externalities and distort markets;Ds edge; R-care for victims of crimes; 2) liberty/oppression; sacralize when its civil rights and human rights; Rs focus on liberty not equality;concerned about their group-freedom from gov't constraint don't tread on me, my business, or my nation; small business; 3)fairness/cheating--Rs edge; liberals-fairness=Equality; sometimes equality of outcomes and not just rights; focus on underdogs and powerless; vs. reap what they sow-proportionality-get what you deserve vs. equality;society organized around groups, not individuals; 4)loyalty/betrayal;-Rs edge focus on soldiers and the flag; Ds-loyalty to group basis for racism/exclusion; 5)authority/subversion,Rs edge -law and order vs. trying to understand criminals Rs focus on subversion of family and traditions; Ds-authority is suppression and exploitive 6)sanctity/degradation-Rs edge; worries of replacing God with celebration of promiscuity; Ds-sanctity suppresses female sexuality/justifies homophobia live lives as they please to maximize individual freedom and pleasure; only when there is harm to another; only sanctify nature; experiment with new things; liberals discredit-4,5,6; Libertarians-weak 1,4,5,6; conservatives strong in all 6; liberals are blind to the need of moral capital and often weaken groups, traditions, institutions; patriotism; conservatives often fail to notice certain classes of victims, limit some powerful interests or need to change;need both-John Stuart Mill;

Populism

Populism-The right is anti-foreign goods, anti-trade, anti-foreign wars; and anti-immigration, while the left is anti-bank, anti-wealthy people and anti-billionaire; tactics are resentment and anger; demagogic, conspiracy minded, anti-science, scorched-earth; fight against elites which protect corporations, immigrants and globalism. Elites are courts, congress institutions. (1)accentuates internal divisions, polarizing by design (2)mobilize righteous anger against enemies (3) charismatic leader; foreign leaders are scapegoats-e.g., Brazil--China-plot against capitalism, communism and west--and ask for reparations due to COVID; "drain the swamp"-clean world of rotten lobbyists and institute campaign finance reform

Protectionism

Protectionism--more goods strat nat. security- beyond military--whole communications infras; oil; food; think COVID-19 and emergencies; curbing exports of some gear, food, vaccines; forcing countries to pick sides; how to define-weapon makers; steel to make and energy to operate; broadly--any econ activity (N Korea everything is strat nat. security); what about AI,chips, genetic engineering? Govt's asking taxpayers to underwrite national firms--creates incentive to favor them; subsidies to repatriate; US urging intel to build here; Nation survival vs. greatness; expensive to prop up-e.g.,semiconductor; pris dilemma-good for one vs. bad for all; poorer countries harder to catch up; rich world-more expensive less free; should diversify supply chain not domesticate it;

Protests

Protests-hit them in pocket don't spend money; 3 types people in street-protestors (actually care (2) rioters-angry &anarchists (3) looters-not angry but just want to get stuff; don't focus on what they are doing; focus not on what but why in this country financial gap that people feel like only hope and opport is climb through broken glass window--getting chain, phone, is only hope); why can't they pull up bootstraps & get on own--economic opport; economics was reason people came to US-agric. work in south/textiles north; imagine 400 monopoly rounds no money & nothing on board; another 50 rounds-everything you gained & earned was taken (Tulsa/ Rosewood) where built wealth & they burned to the ground; you earn wealth for others; they burn your game every time they want; psychol warfare-oh, you are an equal opport hire; how can you win?; you can't win; game is fixed; social contract-if you steal or I steal then the person fixes the situation; but the person who fixes situation is killing us; there is no social contract; they don't own anything; want equality,not revenge;les misera

Qanon

Qanon-who is Q? an anonymous user claiming to be gov't agent with top security clearance waging war against deep state; support conspiracy theories; support Trump; believe star chamber of gov't officials who secretly run world; great awakening where elites will be routed and truth revealed; mass rejection of reason, objectivity, enlightenment; new religion; stoke extremist violence; "nothing can stop what is coming"'; when pandemics, recessions, wars, terrorist attacks occur, it is b/c secret group is working against us; we have democracy in name only; biblical Armageddon; end of world;coronavirus not real; created by "deep state," media elites cheer death toll and create hysteria to hurt Trump's reelection; Trump retweeted associated accounts 145 times; 2016 man filed rifle in DC pizza place studying conspiracy theory on human traficking-pizzagate; gov't involved in OKC bombing; say there are secret plots against Trump; parkland school shootings were actors; free masons; secret symbols; belief that deep state tortures babies and Satanic worship; Nov polls rigged; why subscribe? Suspicious of centralized power; helps make order out of chaos/chance; prefer patterns, causes, villains

Racial injustice

Racial injustice-belief rules apply differently to blacks; worst schools, health care, jobs; concern police are meant to keep a lid on city's poor; protect suburbs; criminal justice system racist; police unions protect officers; smashing and burning things is justified as the only way to get attention; not there to seize territory or attain control of institutions; there to shock white community; looting enables the black person to take goods with same ease of a white person with purse; doesn't even want it; shocking society b/c society cherishes property over people (MLKJ); Victor Hugo: "guilty one is not he who commits sin, but he who causes darkness"; white lawmakers create discrimination, structure slums, perpetuate unemployment/poverty; black crimes derivative & deplorable but bigger crimes are whites; whites violate building codes; police mock laws; equal employment

Religion, global decline of

Religion, global decline of. Religion grew from 1981-07 in most countries. Industrialization/spread of science don't cause religion to disappear-emotional/not cognitive. Countries that are less religious tend to be less corrupt; have lower murder rates. Correlation, not causation. (1) Societies develop,-->survival more secure, starvation, less common, life expect inc, violence/corruption diminishes; increased security-->less religion. Helped cope with uncertainty/stress (1b)Modern societies less religious b/c they no longer need to uphold/obey gender/sexual norms related to high birth rates. Strongest factor. Virtually all world religions teach pro-fertility-as many children as possible, discourage divorce, abortion, homosex, contraception, sex outside marriage; 2) extremists-evangelicals pushed young/liberals away from religion; political views can shape religion, not other way around (3) abuse/corruption in churches; religion preserves social cohesion and obeying of law--10 commandments/all religions support; evidence says religion is not correlated with corruption; Nordic states low corruption; Guatemala, Iraq, Zimbabwe most corrupn; religion makes people more punitive but not less corrupt; more secure-->more ability to focus on human rights, tolerance, environ, gender equal, free speech; religions can be intolerant focusing on absolute values--Catholics vs. Muslims; Catholics vs protestants

Religious freedom

Religious freedom-religious liberty vs. christian priviledge; whether religious orgs can have exemption from civil laws on grounds of religious liberty; whether to elevate religious liberty over other civic goals such as employee rights, healthcare, education, LGBTQ equal treatment; religious freedom vs. religious privilege; should religious freedom be "wielded as sword to harm others"; big cases; whether Colorado baker could refuse to provide wedding cake to same sex couple; whether Hobby Lobby could claim exemption to ACA's birth control being offered to employees mandate; Philadelphia can deny Catholic social-service agency Ks for refusing to allow same sex or unmarried couples be foster parents; changing demographics are causing white Christians to use "persecution" and "discrimination" "under siege" or religious liberty as a "disfavored right" as a mantra; Rs-2/3 white Christians; Ds-1/3 white Christian; 1/3 non-white christian; 1/3 non religious or non-Christian; left wants to remove religious exemptions from federal laws equal rights for same sex or gender identify to employment and housing; what about pressuring someone to step down from leadership for 2012 olympics donating to Prop 8?-no, there would be pressure if someone donated $ks to legalize late-term abortion; freedom of speech and religious do not mean freedom from criticism or freedom from negative public opinion; thank the South for the overt racism that led to these laws; tax free status of church is a privlidge not a right; as long as religion is not using public funds they still have the right to teach their beliefs from the pulpit and church classooms; share their views in the public square, select their own leaders; and minister to their own members freely; one issue is if schools will lose "accreditation based on freedom regarding emploment, honor code standards, ets"-may not get public fundings but accreditatio should be based on quality of instruction and scope of material covered; so long as a business is not 'open to the public" church owned business entities that are directly related to pusposes and functions of church should have same latitude in emploment as church itself; haven't seen any attach on family's fright to worship and conduct religious activities in the home as it sees fit, and for parent to teach children as they see fit; should be able to serve I profession without coercion; allowing for coscientious objection as long as other readily available to perform; freedom of religion should apply to all religions--some religions believe in homosexuality https://rationalfaiths.com/erosion-religious-liberty/

Renewable energy

Renewable energy-generating electricity from renewable sources; often slow/invisible despite gov't support; solar and wind farms are hard to build in densely populated/mountainous areas; privately owned, vertically integrated regional utilities dominate electricity market; they often do little to co-ordinate supply/ demand across borders; each company is like a country; limiting competition suits incumbents; hard for new entrants; Boston people would rather import on big ship (not on solar but on diesel) across Atlantic Ocean to heat the homes; live in a home without natural gas--if not, will have to use black fuel oil; happy to go with wind and solar (all from plastic by the way)--battery that goes into Tesla--takes more CO2 than the average fuel efficient car will use in the first 50k; Tesla-built by oil; powered by coal; subsidized by taxpayer

Robots, replacing humans

Robots, replacing humans-GPT-3-ai based language processing model developed by Open-AI; worries of COVID motivated automation; hospitals using chatbots instead of human assistants; gradual automating high risk tasks, such as slaughterhouses; even "low skilled" jobs require manual and social dexterity that machines cannot yet match; robots won't replace F2F industries in bars, hair, or nail salons; computers cannot yet pilot buses through chaotic city streets; good news is if remote work slashes overhead and enables people to move to cheaper cities, it could preserve jobs by alleviating cost pressures; telework has sped adoption of tech in labour-intensive sectors like educ & healthcare; telemed & distance learning may mean fewer docs and teacher serve more patients and students; bigger impact on blue-collar workers, such as clerical and janitorial staff, whose services become less import as physical footprint of ed and health institutions gets lighter; remote working could hurt café staff, taxi drivers, cleaners; this could delay automation by depressing wages & large unemployed labor; tech induced mass unemploy unlikely except when labor costs drift upwards, perhaps as global supply chains break down, or min wages rise; reshoring manufac jobs could pressure replacing cheap foreign labor with robots at home; if new welfare state and higher min wages lay groundwork for new social K and workers gain more security and work fewer hours, then there may be labor scarcity & more disruption

Rural America-Westover

Rural America-Westover-But from time to time you hear a strong tone of condescension emanating from our urban centers.You hear it in the way people talk about obesity rates in the rural US, or about the lower number of college graduates from rural areas. These are serious problems that are hitting rural US specifically bc of devastating shifts in our economic system, bc of underinvestment in education, bc people in these areas don't have access to decent health care or sometimes to any health care at all. You look at where the holes are in Obamacare—they're in rural areas. You look at where the opioid epidemic hit hard—it's in rural areas. You look at educational outcomes for rural kids—they're troubling, every report. These facts should be the foundation of our empathy, not of our contempt.

Russia, US response

Russia, US response- easy to attack open democracy with disinformation; harder to take advantage of that with Russia b/c they are closed;(1) we should start with arms control and safeguards against proliferation and accidental 1st strike; (2) regional security-address oil politics; N. Korea, Afghanistan; (3)-Nato-each member should step up and meet financial obligations % of GDP and contribute forces; Putin is out in 2024; unclear who successor is--need to build ties with succeses; build better capacity in cyber reason they hit us is we can't hit back; that's why China steals IP; focus on safety and proliferation in nuclear weapons; if Russia collapses and becomes instability-that would be a big security challenge and arms sold to the world;

Russia, intent

Russia, intent-sow seeds of doubt/confusion/disinfo through bot farms/wikileaks and high ROI;we are unique in that we have trust in our institutions--Russians and China will try to diminish trust; different tool box than us; Putin was intelligence officer;Putinism-nationalism, slavic pride, Russian orthodox church, restore greatness & lost territories; Peter the Great closest; national pride and standing;they don't want NATO to expand so they start border conflict and start a war b/c any country in a border war can't join NATO; focus on sphere of influence; give you Monroe Doctrine if you quit support of Ukraine/Georgia/NATO;anyitme we conduct NATO exercises Putin says US will attack; we say defense; Russia wants to own free elections and keep us off balance and russia fears the Chekhzyans Muslins; pick and choose battles-Iranians and Syria,(3) N. Korea (4) Afghanistan; cooperate on nuclear security--keep terrorists from getting it; keep facilities better guarded; has a lot of pride in standing and Russia calls for arms control to get PR; manipulates our emotions to pit us against one another-e.g., flash mobs; so people disengage in democracy-denigrating democratic system so we focus on home and ignore their adventurism in Syria and Ukraine; Putin to his people: is that democracy you want?

STAR stock exchange

STAR stock exchange-Shanghai's stock exchange; opened 7/19; semiconductor SMIC listed shares; Alibaba will list shares there; Ant-valued at $150bn; STAR may pass Nasdaq as top venue for tech capital; Geely, fintech arm of JD.com; companies whose products are central to the Chinese government's desire for an independent domestic semiconductor industry; ; AMEC is a semiconductor maker too;

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia-Saudi Arabia gov't only started helping us after 2003 when there was an attack in their own backyard. Are they friends/foes? This new crown prince is responsible for the death of the journalist, has imprisoned royal people (under guise of corruption), autocrat in exchange for econ and social liberalism; and has started a conflict in Yemen. Why we need them? Counterweight to Iran. Stable price of oil. Fighting terrorism. Allies to support Israel. Don't want nuclear war with Iran/Pakistan. 3rd largest purchaser of weapons but can't use them correctly. Iran's economy is much more competent. Saudi's don't work hard b/c they are dependent on oil--everyone has universal basic income. Whereas Jordan doesn't have oil and export oil.Saudis detest Qatar-b/c of al Jazeera. Saudi/Yemen-border struggle, illicit trade, Houthi's-Iran supports

Slavers' statutes

Slavers' statues-someone whose failings were subordinate to their claim to greatness should stay; someone whose main contribution to history was baleful should go. Would be foolish to throw overboard all those figures who have in any way offended modern morality, just as it would be to preserve every bronze villain just b/c he's ancient; great figures should have a pace in public spaces, even when their record is tarnished; statues are flashpoints at times of social change b/c they honor values and reflect hierarchies of times which were erected; what some celebrate, others reject. Take down statues meant to defend white supremacy; Edward Colston listed Bristolians out of poverty but did so through slave trade (take down); Cromwell caused suffering in Ireland but big champion of democracy (keep); Cecil Rhodes charities but drove black people off land (museum); its ok to honor people who happened to be slaveowners (Washington, Jefferson) b/c known chiefly for contribution to country; Tillman-white Confederate supremacist (go); Nathan Forrest (klansman, (go)

Software

Software-largest companies-Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, ADP, Adope, Salesforce; Computer software is a collection of data or computer instructions that tell the computer how to perform tasks. This is in contrast to physical hardware, from which the system is built and actually performs the work. In computer science and software engineering, computer software is all info processed by computer systems, programs and data. Computer software includes computer programs, libraries and related non-executable data

Supply chain diversification

Supply chain diversification-3 reasons:(1) China's climb up the value chain is squeezing out low end firms-garment-makers have already shifted in part to SE Asia. (2) tensions with US have caused Apple to encourage suppliers to expand outside China; (3) shutdowns of factories during pandemic have underscored over-exposure to any one country-think of shortages in PPE. Diversification is in. single source out. Even if it raises costs and reduces efficiencies. Average Chinese manufacturer wages are already = to parts of Europe. Alternatives: Vietnam, Myanmar, maybe India. Subsidize relocation costs of COs relocating back home. Robotics makes case more compelling b/c they reduce cost difference. Tech used to spread supply chain geographically. Now it can domesticate it. Shorter supply chains so firms spend less to make imports resiliant to climate--more complex supply chain, more risk--e..g, automobile, consumer electronics, and semiconductors

TikTok

TikTok-aka ByteDance; 2bn downloads; June 29th India banned Tiktok;70M US users--on par with snapchat; 2 concerns (1) censorship & propaganda; the past it muted discussion of Tibet, Tiananmen Sq, and Xinjiang repression; (2) as a Chinese firm, it must work with Chinese authorities; even if TikTok could resist gov't requests on non-China citizens what kind of extralegal means could be used to get data? If Beijing engineers have access to Tiktok's servers, they could force them to hand over data; it could bifurcate into Bytedance China and Bytedance global and the global moves to London with a back-office in Ireland; or ByteDance could spin out TikTok's American arm; or ByteDance's investors could buy a majority stake in TikTok; what ByteDance fears most is forced sale of 90-100% of global Tiktok to US investors or tech giant; US wants TikTok to become a US firm separate from Chinese parent; Facebook will launch Instagram "Reels";YouTube will roll out "Shorts" that are clones; Microsoft vs.Oracle/Walmart/Sequoia/General Atlantic; Oracle isnot offering a clean sale but ByteDance is giving Oracle sway over all of Tiktok globally rather than just US,Canada, Aust, and NewZeal; ByteDance will remain majority shareholder but will move global HQ to US; still wil lhave Chinese majority ownership and although oracle will host and process all American data in its computing cloud, and possibly that of tiktok users globally, the deal does not sever TikTok's links with its Chinese parent and address disinformation concerns. ByteDance will keep supplying, running, and updating the algorithm; source code stays in China; US has access

Transgender rights

Transgender rights-Anyone can change the gender on their birth certificate simply by self-declaration vs. need two medical opinions, including a diagnosis of gender dysphoria. Concerns that any man could ender a women-only space and can stalk. Issue: Should trans women should use women's changing rooms if they have not undergone gender reassignment surgery. Issue: what is gender reassignment. Sounds vague. Need a legal definition of 4 things: woman, female, sex, and gender identity. JK rowling: women is not a costume; not an idea in a man's head

Treasuries

Treasuries-$20.5trn in tradable bonds; nearly 100% of GDP; dollar's dominance mean everyone has them--US banks; European pension schemes; Arab sovereign wealt funds; Asian exporters; back in March/April 2020 the market convulsed and the bid-ask spread--gap betweeen price at which you can buy a bond and that at which you can sell--was 12x typical level. Spread between "on-the-run" bonds, which are recently issues and tend to be most liquid, and older "off-the-run" treasuries widened; Investors rushed to dmp holdings; Municipal bond yields, which generally trade at 60-90% of treasury yields, spiked above 350%; System burdened for 2 reasons: (1) debt stock from finacial crises in 2007, stiumulus, Dtrump defecits, and 2020 stimulus. And credit provisions to households and businesses has become more market-based and less bank based.

Trump doctrine, critique

Trump doctrine, critique; Preventing war not possible without US allies; global partners valuable to help fight terrorism; trade helped exports & lower costs consumers; lower inflation; bilateral trade deficits don't matter; little interest in human rights, spreading democracy, addressing humanitarian issues, or climite change; friendlier to dictators than democratic counterparts; disregard allies; impose tariffs on allies; reduced skills immigrants, passive on South China Sea; abandoned Israeli-Palest 2 state; abandoned Iran nuc deal; N. Korea farther along; snubbing own intelligence services (CIA); US's reputation has pluncged 13% around world;didn't punish Saudi's prince Muhammad bin Salman for murder of Wash Post colunist; hasn't stopped Saudis from ending war in Yemen; max pressure hasn't ousted Maduro; "Wrecking ball" mentality: (1) Undermine institutios-NATO, WTO, UN. Rejection Arms Control; COVID resonse and US failed to lead; climate change; (2) sideline allies; abandon Kurds; reduce Germany forces; flatters Putin and Xi; Turkey unbundling from West; (3) used to be champion of democracy and human rights and aspirations but now questioned when looking home; silence on human rights abuses Hong Kong & Uyghurs; pulling all troops out of Afghanistan is akin to surrender

Trump doctrine

Trump doctrine-Containment & new internat order transformed Germany & Japan into democracies & built alliances, Marshall aid, UN, IMF, World Bank, DoD, & CIA. Containment became less useful after Cold War.It was guided by realism (balance of power); idealism (promote human rights), humanitarianism. Multilateralism. Take imperfect systems and sub with something worse; Argument-don't rebuild foreign nations at expense of our infrastructure; defend our nation; end endless wars; not world's police; trade/immigration destroying jobs/communities and helped China take advantage of us, we were overstretched abroad and home is suffering; other countries have taken advantage of our military spending; US first; costs of US leadership outweigh benefits; get out of WHO, TPP; (1) increased focus on Asia, (2) nation building "here", (3) weariness with "forever wars"; Nato allies need to carry their fair share; go after Europe, Mexico, and Canada on trae3; US should only intervene beyond borders when "short term intersts were at stake"; usual approaches to N.Korea had yielded nothing, so he tried something new; gave Kim recognition as peer but no concern of pre-emptive military strikes by de facto recognizing their nuclear status; peace agreegment with Israel, UAE, and Bahrain; US embassy Jerusalem; counter-US grew 90x since WWII, lifespan 10yrs longer; Cold war ended peacefully,

Trump's playbook

Trump's playbook-instinct for adversary's weakness, devotion to self, impose will, above law; precedent can be deleted; law enforcement's indepen is optional; sep of powers gentleman's agreement; transparent lies; expect total loyalty; human beings are weak; illusions;appetites, vanities, fears; distraction; deflection; dismiss; right-wing populism; anti Raegan on immigration™ normalize misconduct; attack people to make misdeeds look ok; taint cases; control Justice dept; weaken press; attack courts/congress; unitary pres-pres. sole author in exec branch; invoke religion-ends justify means; those with different opinion are enemy of the state; guardian of people; political appointees agree at all costs;rough,vain,insensitive,raw--loves US;change agent; admire foreign dictators to achieve power, cruelty, fame; serve family & friends on Wall Street; advocate equality & prosper but produce inequality & poverty; opposite of free minds, markets, people; loyalty cult; appear democratic but retain control; "national interest" is his own interest/reelection interest; ends up undermining democracy by rejecting democratic rules of game, deny legitimacy of political opponents, deny standing of opponents as co-citizens; tolerate or encourage violence; threaten legal action against critics; exaggerate so press might enjoy correcting him and unwittingly disseminate intended finding; offer foreig govn'ts protectio in exchange for dirt on a rival; give family plum jobs in WH; use DOJ to conduct vendettas; ask for opponents to be locked up; undermine norms/instiutions; ; sneer at science; undermine institutions like CDC; Ds party of big donors, big media, big tech; Rs party of American worker

Trump, record

Trump, record-Promises kept-economic growth; low unemployment; wages of less well off rose; signed prison reform law to reduce incarceration and reform prisons; appointed three conservative justices; abandoned trade deals he disliked; slapped tariffs on countries stealing jobs; immigration fell; law and order support; tax cuts; deregulation-new regs fell; Con-mismanaged epidemic; rewrote trade deals; subverts democratic norms; polarization of politics; higher gov't debt; pledge to deport all 11m undocumented immigrants; build a wall on Mexico's border and pay for it; said Mexico was sending rapists and drug dealers--xenophobia; "Muslim ban"; deride foreign policy and free-trade orthodoxies; said that trade deficits were a sign of weakness; environment; -coal; harder for people to immigrate legally with visas; separated families at borders; abandoned Trans-Pacific partnership; American consumers pay $900k for every steel job saved; manufacturing employment slumped America's trade deficit outside China has gone up; pledge on debt; didn't repeal and replace Obamacare; national murder rates have gone up 15% under Trump; didn't drain the swamp-what Steve Bannon called "deconstruction of the Administrative State" where indep inspectors-general were sidelined; less indep civil service; personal loyalty paramount; 1.8bn tonnes of CO2 ommitted over 15 solely b/c of Trump's deregulations; ruled by faction rather than whole nation;

Trump, support reasons

Trump, support reasons; Dems and Repubs have different experiences. Modern econ works well for cities & badly for the country. Growth has been hyper-concentrated in cities-tech and finance hubs. The hinterlands, which rely on agricul and manufac—what you might call the "old economy"—have sunk into a deep decline. There are places in the US where the recession never ended. For them, it has been 2009 for 10 years; You can see this even at the state level. Take the 20 poorest states, by median household income, and you'll see that 18 voted Trump. Of 10 richest states, 9 went for Hillary Clinton. But in a climate of desperation & economic realignment, of uncertainty about the future, people become tribal. They become vulnerable to narratives that demonize those who are not like them. Most rural Americans don't understand the vast technological and geopolitical shifts that are destroying their way of life. How could they? I don't understand those shifts, and I've been trying pretty hard. It's very easy for someone to come along and tell them that the problem is immigration

Trump, why Repubs stick with Trump

Trump, why Repubs stick with Trump; when people feel attacked they go to tribes; common enemy perceived as a mortal threat-lawlessnes and anarchy--Jacobin; instinct not just to belong but exclude and attack; They close ranks and become more insular, more defensive, more punitive, more us-versus-them; who admire fascism; end of survival justify any means; Fear strengthens tribalistic instincts, and tribalistic instincts amplify fear; will tolerate allies to dig up dirt on the president's opponent, to cozying up to some of the worst dictators in the world, to peddling crazed conspiracy theories, to mishandling a pandemic at the cost of untold lives, to countless other ethical and governing transgression; we all feel urge to conform; think Vichy France 1940; Communism; East Germany 1945, Eastern Europe 1947; Graham vs. Romney; Trump first to lie knowing the press knew he was lying; takes time for people to abandon values-slowly; goal not to make people believe lie but to fear the liar;people think (1)"what would happen economically or with my family if I opposed"; "(2)can use moment to achieve great things, (3)protect country from President; (4)personally benefit money/status; (5)must remain close to power to get higher status; preserve "effectiveness" and connections; retain influence; inspire respect; (6)nothing matters-relativism, amorality;if President doesn't have to obey rules, why should I?-inspire alt-right; be the carnival king profanity defeats piety;(7) my side flawed but opposition is worse; "Rather Hitler than Blum"-Vichy France; liberalism & socialism, gay marriage, secularism is worse; "biblical moment"; US was weak and Trump strengthened it; (8)afraid to speak out;

Voter fraud

Voter fraud-3 groups-(1) foreigners-break into vote-counting machines or corrupting lists of eligible voters; but Russians never did this (2) fraudulent voters-no evidence of this but 1/2 of voters think it exists (3) Republicans-Democrats say that by manipulating laws on what ID is acceptable at a polling station and where stations are sited, and by purging inactive voters from state lists of eligible voters, Republicans engage in cheating or voter suppression; not as much evidence that this is decisive b/c they may be disenfranchising people who would not have voted anyway; 45% of eligible voters in presidential elections do not vote; no compelling evidence that voter-photo ID laws change elections; US constitution does not guarantee all citizens the right to vote--up to the states; polling place closures and long queues caused by lack of volunteers , as well as machine failures are routine--most states using machines that are no longer manufactured; long lines hurt non-white voting turnout;

5g, Open Ran, Huawei, gov't policy

5G, OpenRaN, Huawai, gov't policy-Help tackle bottlenecks by encouraging investment in the development of specialist chips that power antennae, as well as laboratories that test integration of a network's components. Promote a common set of standards among equipment-makers and network-operators that deals with security and mandates at least some compliance with OpenRAN.

Surveillance technologies

Surveillance technologies. City Brain and its successor technologies will also enable new forms of integrated surveillance. (some good and some bad). Some of these will enjoy broad public support: City Brain could be trained to spot lost children, or luggage abandoned by tourists or terrorists. It could flag loiterers, or homeless people, or rioters. Anyone in any kind of danger could summon help by waving a hand in a distinctive way that would be instantly recognized by ever-vigilant computer vision. Earpiece-wearing police officers could be directed to the scene by an AI voice assistant.

AI, language generating text

AI, language generating text-GPT-3 Generative Pretrained Transformer, developed by Open AI lab Elon Musk helped found; computers have ability to generate sophisticated, human like text (wrote a poem); software checks probability with which words follow other words-e.g., red is followed by rose; model given a prompt: "a poem about red roses in style of Sylvia Plath"-it will dig through statistical relationships to identify text that matches description; computer learns through trial and error from millions of attempts at text prediction; more complex algorithm, better it performs; GPT-3 boast 175Bn parameters; it wrote a short story such as detective story; wrote comedy sketches and even poetry; human readers struggled to distinguish computer from human; it can't do reasoning though; language has overtaken vison as focus for data and computing power;

Airlines

Airlines-options-lease and focus on sales/marketing just like hotels; go green;merge for gorwth; Embraer may combine with COMAC from China-brazil knowhow and china industrial might; renegotiate leases; close hubs; seek gov't loan; consider bankruptcy; pass costs to passengers by raising prices; permanently ground planes; scuttle 747 Jumbos & A380 planes-Boeing/Airbus; trends- staycations-travelling within country; more car, train, cruise travel; environmentalists support high-speed rail as more ecofriendly; less airport operators; impact--suppliers of parts hurting-e.g., engines like Rolls Royce /GE; fuselage producers;avionics & electrical system producers-Honeywell; 6M airport workers-cafes & luggage handlers; 2.7M airline workers; 1.2M plane making; with travel firms- Expedia etc. $1.3TN industry; carriers relying on bus travel struggling; 35% global fleet parked; leasing firms own 1/2 of global fleet; opportunities: airlines are restructuring to lower costs; laying off workers and rehiring them on less generous terms; pilots are plentiful; airports have spare slots; challenger carriers have a chance to gain market share especially those who serve young pop less worried or non-bus travelers; consolidation weakens compet;

Airports

Airports-2/3rds were losing money before COVID; now all are; smaller ones may close if subsidies to support tourism from regional and national gov'ts dwindle; 60% of revs come from charges on airlines and passengers, and the rest from things like retail and parking; will lose $3.4B between now and end of 2021; will be hard for them to raise charges when airlines bleed cash; big cuts in capital spending; may slow efforts to install contactless technology that could help reassure traveler that terminals are safe;

Ant Group

Ant Group-Jack Ma; Chinese fintech star; was going public on Hong Kong and Shanghai STAR exchange; $40bn shared sold; world's biggest ever; regulators halted IPO in Nov. 2020; Ant is going to have a tough time complying with online micro-lending rules; will make it valued more like a fiacial firm than a tech firm; was previously 40PE multiple; credit operations will face slower growth and lower profitaiblity; Alibaba owns 1/3 of At; says it is "techfin" not "fintech"-wants tech analysts, not banking analysts to cover it;

Antitrust, tech giants

Antitrust, tech giants-Market concentration less appealing due to high barriers to entry-(1) hard to amass reams of data which enable incumbents to tailor to individual users; (2) relatively easy for an incumbent to see what users like about what startup offers, provide something similar and push it out to millions; reduces incentive to innovate (3) incumbents close off competition by buying new entrants before they pose real threat-Facebook buys Insta/WhatsApp; reform idea: (1)neo-Brandeisians-purpose of antitrust should be to prevent any one firm from exerting too much power-purpose of antitrust is more than consumer welfare; Amazon deals with retailers & consumers; Facebook & Google with users & advertisers; provide cheap access on one side & steeply charge advertisers; Chicago school disagrees saying it replaces transparent/rigorous method with ill-defined social goals & reg power should be viewed with as much suspicion as market power; Chicago school believes market will sort out "predatory pricing" b/c it is poor business and would invite new competitors that wouldn't make up for lost profits; Bork-regulators shouldn't consider public interest;antitrust should solely bust cartels & prevent mergers that create monopolies, i.e., focus on upward pricing pressure that hurts consumers;

Arm

Arm- Arm, is UK based, and was bought by SoftBank for $32B, most ever for a EU tech co. Nvidia looking to acquire. Arm licenses blueprints for general purpose chips used in everything from smartphones to car to IOT.Arm's core products are fundamental blueprint chip designs for computer chips called instruction-set architectures (ISAS); Arm sells ISAS to Apple, Qualcomm and Huawei, giving freedom to them to design and manufacture Arm chips however they want; Iphones' chips are product of this process; Arm also creates its own chip designs, which it calls "cores", and licenses them to companies that need a cookie-cutter starting point for chips to put in devices, as well as cars, connected fridges or anything else; Arm is everywhere; Arm is the sole supplier of tech that undergirds global semiconductor industry; makes little revenue $2Bn; Arm has been the "Switzerland" of the semiconductor industry--not competing with its customers by selling chips or gadgets. Nvidia's purchase will threaten neutrality if Nvidia gives itself preferential access to Arm designs.RISC-V custodians provide an alternative of freely available designs and claim they are "independent and free of Arm/Nvidia" conflicts; Arm is also a crucial supplier to China, so China worries a Nvidia takeover would bring it firmly under American control

Bank crises counter

Bank crises counter-CLOs are simpler and one layer of loans rather than multiple; CLOs are $675B not $1.3Tr; better to compare the value of outstanding "subprime" mortgage backed securities to outstanding CLOs, not CDOs; CLOs are 1/4s the size when compared to GDP; 2008 had a lot of credit default swaps tied to riskier securities; 2008 bet that CDOs would fail-their gain was someone else's loss; nothing close now to credit default swaps; more as a result of good old-fashioned loans b/c of good old-fashioned depression not b/c of fancy structured products more about conventional credit risk due to pandemic induced depression; one needs very substantial levels of defaults before senior tranche of CLOs realize any losses-CLOs are among best of bank's corporate loans; collateralized synthetic options are smaller market and unrated and less liquid; $30Bn for Wells Fargo is 1.7% of assets and they are top tranches; high yield corporate debt is more of a risk

Biden's Playbook

Biden's playbook-Priorities-jumbo recovery bill to help the economy; greener economy with more active industrial policy--updated electricity grids & charging stations; heavy R&D spend in renewable energy; infrastructure spending; cash for state & local governments; boost unemployment benefits; minimum wage increase; keep protectionist policies; borders open to skilled immigrants; univeral pre-school; tax credits for child care; free public univers ed for families under $125k per year in income; 3 forces at play: (1) Covid induced recession; (2) left wing of his party (3) Congress; How? (1) Congress and Tax rises--business taxes; reversal of 2017 Trump tax cuts; corporate income from 21 to 27%; remove PE firm and real estate breaks; individuals over $400k would see top band of taxes rise; (2) job appointments--right people in right positions, and (3) executive orders; bring supply chains back home (industrial strategy)-buy American; possible Supreme Court expansion;

Capitalist Dilemma, explained

Capitalist Dilemma, explained-we are ok as long as more jobs created than efficiency innovations reduce; as long as capital created from efficiency create enough capital to fund empowering it keeps going; first 6 recessions worked; what went wrong? Finance takes efficiency innovations to reinvest in efficiency innovations; maximize return to shareholder-IRR; abundant and cheap inputs like sand don't worry; others that are scarce/costly need to focus on IRR highest return; where to deploy cap?-empowering takes 5-10 yrs and would have to put on balance sheet; but efficiency innovations pay off in 1-2 yrs and create rather than use capital; PE/hedge funds complain so much money for few deals; awash in capital; cost of capital almost zero; but can't create new jobs; Japan succeeded with empowering innovations-e.g., Toyota; Canon printer; Sony Radio; unemployment less than 2%; since 90s Japan has struggled; problem is way we calculate success; focus on innovation--innovation target of investment and investment is fuel for economy

Capitalist Dilemma, solution

Capitalist Dilemma, solution-Dems and Repub wrong; Republicans--low tax and allow people to keep money b/c they invest to create jobs; but not true most use capital to create capital; Democrats wrong too--giving people handouts will only be used for sustaining innovations b/c all that is available and by nature doesn't create jobs; flooding economy with more capital doesn't solve capital problem; redistribution doesn't solve job problem; empowering innovations solves; who can solve? Product and service is wrong way to categorize but online learning is mostly empowering--allows more people to learn more things

Capitalists Dilemma

Capitalist Dilemma-9 recessions since WWII; recovery employment lag to hit hire peak-for first six recessions it took 6 months; last three-->15,39,70+; what went wrong? Jobless recoveries; wasn't case 20-30 years ago; why? 3 types of innovations (1)empowering-transforms complex/expensive to simple/affordable-e.g.,mainframe computer $2M-presonal$2k; automobile; smart phone; all jobs in economy through empowering. Why? If affordable/accessible-more buy,use, hire for make,distribute,sell,service; they use capital; (2) sustaining-make good products better; most innovations; create few jobs; why? When sell better they don't buy old product; Prius don't sell Camry; replicative; neutral on capital; (3) efficiency-allow to make same product at lower prices; online insurance Geico 15% less; Walmart-same products to same customers at 15% less; reduce jobs; if Walmart goes into town-they hire a lot but aggregate 15% fewer jobs in retailing in area; they free capital; Toyota-eliminated WIP inventory when 60 to 2.5 days; freed up capital on bal sheet;

Carbon removal

Carbon removal-Two methods (1) direct air capture (DAC)-trapping CO2 from atmosphere by sucking air through absorbent material. (2)Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage" (BECCS), absorption done by trees/crops as they grow. Biomass is then burned for energy and C02 is captured. Either way, it is stored underground, permanently removing it from atmosphere. Qs around costs. DAC expensive maybe $600 per ton b/c concentration is low at .045%; BECCS lower sense concentration is 10% so more efficient. Must assess opport cost of vast plantations BECCS requires. BECCS can rely on genetic modification through new tree strains/crops that absorb more C02; 3 conditions needed: (1)storage, (2)space(3)low-cost power. Storage easiest through sedimentary/basaltic rock formations. Space more difficult-very land hungry. DAC plants mostly in deserts and can use solar power which is cheap.

Commercial property

Commercial property-used to be hot for pension plans b/c belief would provide steady stream of earnings for decades--similar to gov't bonds before low interest rates; millions of tenants have stopped paying rent-chaos among shopping mall and office landlords; pensions dropped gov't bonds due to low yields and invested in malls, offices, hotels, and warehouses; about 10% of most pension funds; has had 7% returns; 10 year leases; tenants behind on rent; 1/4 free standing shops; 50% mall tenants; 60% restaurants not paying dues; temporary delinquencies only part of the problem; ecommerce has exploded speeding up doom of brick and mortar shops; some firms may rethink office space; video calls instead of business trips could reduce hotel nights billed; some landlords may be using arcane accounting practices; hotels may need to be apartment blocks; malls as ecommerce fulfilment centers; need to reinvent office areas;

Commercial space flights

Commercial space flights-good example of public private partnerships; gov't helped SpaceX by helping firm develop tech it needed for rockets, unmanned capsules, and then manned capsuled;

Corporations, social responsibility

Corporations, social responsibility-Should corporations be silent on social issues; should they focus on giving? Or pay dividends to shareholders? Pro-abandon Friedman doctrine of shareholder primacy in favor of customers, employees, and others; focus on "stakeholders" and broader social welfare; Con-Milton Friedman, only businessmen have responsibilities; focus on the shareholders and making them as much money as possible while conforming to basic rules of society; giving bosses too much leeway may make things worse as balancing competing interests give CEOs too much power; tadeoffs-GM shareholder who is an employeee may want higher salaries than higher profits; $ spent on pollution control may be a $ less on worker retraining; most who sign "corporate purpose" statements fail to walk the talk and have higher environmental and labor compliance violations and spend more money on lobbying ; if the gov't encourages execs to regulate their own acitvities it could make things worse for tax reform, antitrust regs and carbon taxes; consider short-and long-term investors; Case study-Walmart-shares ballooned 2000x since 1970s and beat up suppliers and low prices; now champions green energy and gay rights and ended sale of some ammunition and lobby for gun control; Hobby Lobby-wouldn't sell insurance with contraceptive coverage; Nike-support Kapernick protest;

Corruption, how to address

Corruption, how to address-instead of asking how can we reduce/elim corruption in Brazil through laws, we have to ask "why does it persist in the first place." Focus more on creating new markets and/or growing; It's like playing whack a mole--you hit one mole & another appears; focused on symptoms more than cause. Why corruption more pervasive in poorer countries and why more prosperous countries become less corrupt. It's not in Brazil b/c of bad governance, lack of moral values, or lack of institutions; China has 1k anti-corruption laws; S. Africa has institutions; it is there b/c it is hired to fulfill a job to help people make progress; when society offers few choices to make progress, corruption becomes attractive; it's in Brazil b/c individuals have a cost structure and if cost structure is higher than rev, we are susceptible to corrupt regardless of what law says; when the avg. policeman has high cost/rev ratio, he will be susceptible to crime; we hire things to benefit ourselves; we ask "do I need to obey this law, or can I get away with it; we speed when there are no cops

Corruption

Corruption-no respect for other departments--courts, congress, bureaucrats-departing from oath vs. pay to play; Trump's attack on institutions; Sec. of Agric didn't put companies in a blind trust; distribute billions in compensation to farms damaged by trade policies; fill roles with former lobbyists now regulating their own industries; promote a prosecutor to US treasury, she resigns, and then withdraw nomination; Roger Stone and Michael Flynn investigations; commuted Stone's sentence and 7 felonies; relief aid going to his own companies; not release tax returns; concede owe $100s of million but not say who creditors are; scrap rules requiring oil and other firms to say what they paid foreigners; sacking of 5 independent attorneys general; forced removal of top fed prosecutor in NY; break those who testified against Mr. Trump in his impeachment trial by issuing an exec order to give power to fire those officils; 500+ nights at Mar o Lago and $millions; millions spent at his hotels for official meetings; questionable innauguration expenses; DOJ weaponized to become personal defense team of President-fend off subpoenas for tax returns; solution-require-candidates to disclose taxes; require President's to still be subject to conflict of interest laws

Private equity

Private equity-$4trn; 8k cos run by PE; 5% of GDP & workforce; leveraged Cos & debt instruments vulnerable; $1.6TN in drypowder; PE managers have juiced up returns by piling on debt in Cos they buy; usually no debt worth more than 6x gross operating profits; yet 3/4 of deals are leveraged more than 6x; 1/3 of big PE fund assets are now debt entities; helps PE firms restructure if needed; fund managers cannot deploy dry powder raised for new funds into firms owned by older ones. Bailing out existing investments will drag down returns

Digital ID cards

Digital ID cards-e.g., Estonia--links every Estonian's records so when there was a furlough system for workers affected by pandemic, it already knew where they worked and how to pay them; no one had to join queue on pavement to claim benefits; Cons to nat identity system-perhaps too easy for gov't to spy, botched by incompetent bureaucrats; hard and expensive;Pros-quicker and easier to access gov't services remotely; more effective track and trace--gov't could see where infected people work in same factory if you link health and work data; data-protection laws and anti-hacking safeguards that include two-factor authentication; laws can be passed to stop police from demanding to see ID cards; more of a threat to autocratic systems; Estonia makes it a crime for anyone, including officials, to access private info without god cause; India has figured it out despite some imperfections; massively reduced fraud; streamlined services; can be introduced gradually; reduce risk of dealing with the state

Digital banking

Digital banking-Digital banking revolution; conventional banks now only 72% of market value vs. 81% at beginning of 2020. mostly focused on payments; Peer to Peer cos such as Venmo growing big; outside west-mobile wallets where you pay after loading money on phone are hot; digital finances allows gov'ts to give aid to more people; brings more people ito banking system (e.g., amazons); lots of physical branches will close unless they offer "high-value" services; everyone wants to become the 'home page' 'bundled' 'platform'; ; goal is to integrate credit, insurance, and investment ito non-financial apps or websites and become as valuable as payments services are today; banks diversifying as rising competition and low and falling interest rates reduce lending margins; more data will be moved to cloud; Fintechs want the "payments" market as opposed to banks heavily regulated capital-ntesive activiteies such as running a balance sheet; fintechs need banks to own the latter; Nubank (Brazilian digital lender) 15B in value; Brazil will implement Open Banking, that will give fintechs access to data held by bankds, fund managers, and insurers;

Disinformation and democracy

Disinformation and democracy-think Russia; invisible weapons of "facts, fakes, and a disorienting mix of both; think 2016 election; disinformation is not the same as fabrication; most effective when larger truths flanked by little lies; CIA owned newspapers around the world to create chaos; sow social or political division; Russians have stamina--they would live in the US for decades and raise children here under guise of bonified Americans; Russians want to pit us against ourselves and cause us to think democracy is broken; to distract us on internal strife so they can get away with Middle East escapades

Election crises

Election crises-China, Russia, and Iran use disinfo to sow election distrust; voter fraud 1 in 1M; 4 scenarios all >stress than 2000; Repub seek to elect barriers to vote b/c white smaller % of pop; (1) 1.7k polling places closed between 2012-18 in states previously covered by pre-clearance Voting Rights Act that Sup Court struck in 2013 that required jurisdictions with history of racial discrim to get Justice Dept clearance before electoral changes; Most closures in battleground TX,AZ,GA among black/Hispanic; 2016-560k voters didn't vote b/c of polling place issues (2) long queues-Black/Latinos wait longer/discourage voting; COVID makes standing in line harder (3) poll worker recruiting-e.g., WI, 5 polling places in 2020 in Milwaukee compared to 180 in 2016; (4) lack of funding to fix issues; (5) hackers can't impact national scale--but may hack crucial county in swing state-e.g, take system down a few hours, increasing voter wait times; (6) mail voting-e.g., PA expanded absent voting; Trump legal challenge; NV-law sends absentee ballot to every voter (7) FL 800k felons now have to pay the fine; (8) state's ability to count-staff; (9) post office-and to be counted ballots need to get to where they are by certain date no matter when sent or postmarked--e.g. MI; Postmaster Gen. restricted overtime and # of trips mal carrirers can make; has removed 100s of mail sorting machines from processing facilities which makes delivery slower; 20 states sued; (10) blocking voter registrations with minor typos--GA; (11) TX student IDs don't count but gun licenses do; (12) blue shift mirage--rural votes early; mail in votes late-More Ds will vote by mail b/c COVID

Election, electoral crisis

Election, electoral crisis-The system of electing the president is complicated because it was not designed to be directly democratic. The Constitution calls for states to choose the presidential electors, who in turn gather to vote for the president. Over time, states have passed laws that ensured their state's popular vote for the presidency would determine the electors. But those are laws, not a constitutional obligation. Imagine Trump is leading on Nov. 3, but Biden gains ground in the days following. Rs file objections to 10s of K of mail-in ballots. Ds file countersuits. Imagine legislatures decide to choose the electors.Of the 9 swing states, 8 have R legis. If one or more decide that balloting is chaotic and marred by irregularities, they could send what they regard as the legitimate slate of electors, which would be R. Ds may object and file lawsuits. In some of those states, D governors or sec of state could send their own slates of electors to Washington. That would add to the confusion, but that might well be part of the R plan. When Congress convenes on Jan. 6 to tally the electors' votes, there would be challenges to the legitimacy of some electors. Congressional Rs would agree that disputed states should not be counted. That would ensure that neither candidate would get to 270 electoral votes. At that point, the Constitution directs that the House of Rep vote to determine the presidential election. But it does so with each state casting a single vote. If the current numbers hold, there would be 26 state delegations that are R and 23 D (with one tied); this outcome elects Trump. Trump does not need to do anything other than accept this outcome, which is constitutional.

Electric cars

Electric cars-wirelessly charging; electromagnetic induction; alternating mains current flowing through coil to create magnetic field; second coil converts power into current; recharges battery; WiTricity; 50km of range per hour would be $2k; competitive with plug-in home charging; can charge vehicles while on the move; will be used for commercial trucks; robot taxis; plans for surplus electricity generated in time of plenty by wind and sunshine and release during peak demand; batteries are most expensive part of electric car-about 30%; hope of 1M mile batteries; batteries age with (1) time-ability to hold a charge and (2) use-discharge recharge cycles; when batteries charge lithium ions created at one electrode, the anode, shuttle through liquid electrolyte to second electrode, the cathode; electrons travel along external electrical circuit, which powers the car; goal is ultimately to replace li-ions' liquid electrolytes with solid ones--could give it 2M miles; Unions fear job losses fresulting from move to less labor intensive mechanics; companies investing in IP to set them apart

Energy independence

Energy independence-Decimation of America's shale oil could renew dependence on Saudi oil; US production expected to fall in half; Egypt/Jordan/Bahrain have health-care crises and Saudi's/US can't help; Iran will exploit;

Energy policy and future

Energy policy and future-Trump-never be reliant on hostile foreign supply; faracking's last defense; save American coal; reduce requirements for greenhouse-gas emissions; loosen fuel-efficiency standards for cars; ease rules for oil and gas producers' emissions of methane; invite more drilling in public lands; effect-coal plants delay installing new scrubbers; lower costs; greenhouse gas rise; despite all of this Coal is down 22% between 06 and 2019; renewaple power is poised to match coal fired; sector will still decline; oil and gas is wobbly and investors has fallen out of love with American shale;

Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve-4 new era features: (1) rich countries will borrow 17% of combined GDP in 2020; (2) whirring of the printing press-borrowing $4TRN among US ,UK, Euro,& Japan--much is used to buy gov't debt; central banks are financing stimulus; forces low long term rates (3) state's role as capital allocator in chief; Fed Res and Treasury have entered financial markets buying bonds of AT&T, Apple & Coca Cola & lending directly to bond dealers & NFP hospitals; Fed & Treasury are backstopping 11% of US's entire stock of busines debt (4) low inflation means no immediate need to slow central bank balance sheet growth or raise rates; low inflation-->less worry. Reflects stagnation of banks as intermediaries. Benefits-low rates make cheaper for govt to borrow for infrastruct, research labs, electricity grids; Risks-must raise rates once inflation hits & pay high interest payments; now gov't will be choosing which firms fail & who to rescue; recipe for distorted markets, moral hazard & low growth; Fed Reserve turning from regulating interest rates to debt management; tasks-1930s end depression; 70s/early 80s-stagflation; today-political economic takeover-free money comes at staggering price

Free speech & social media

Free speech & social media-Twitter flagged a Pres. Trump speech as "unsubstantiated"; Pres. Trump made exec order claiming "social-media firms can be liable for content published if they are not politically neut; sec 230 of communications decency act says that even if firms moderate content they aren't liable to lawsuits and exempting them from liability for content they publish; there are exceptions for copyrighted, criminal law violations, & sex trafficking; EU wants to go farther and make social media "police platforms: and say "code of conduct" would include hate speech; libertarians fear social media firms becoming "ministries of truth" for misinfo; EU public agencies would oversee social media firms; fear they are becoming more like "publishers;" what speech should be allowed? Who should decide?; Twitter/Facebook and Google have banned all political adds; Facebook banned anti-vaccination adds, Holocaust denial and Qanon posts; Facebook views itself as a "town square"; European Ct. of Justice ruling to remove "harmful" content worldwide not just within Europe; Germany has law-can't insult foreign head of state; Signapore-banned lies that could harm public interest "fake news law"; Twitter's own rules: ban material that could interfere with "civic integrity"; solution-freedom of speech vs. reach--leave posts up but make less visible/viral; solutio: make data available for audit and make internal processes more visible; -e..g, Facebook's 20 person watchdog to issue binding rulings but can only apply Fbook rules not set them

GE

GE-lost $500bn in value in 20 years; why did they fail? over-exalted sense of abilities? Narcissism, hubris?; Welch 81-2001; Immelt-2001-2017; Welch slashed jobs, shut poor performing divisions, 1k acquisitions worth $130Bn; Welch rejuvenated company and American capitalism; his main contribution was building GE capital--it could borrow cheaply due to AAA credit rating; GE Capital's success ensured GE shared traded at high PE multiples, helping Welch use stock to pay for takeovers; GE capital dragged company down; almost failed in 2007-9; moved away from financial services to jet engines, power turbines, and health care; sold GE Capital in 2015; big mistake in acquiring Alstom, French competitor , for $10bn in 205; Immelt is partly to blame as a salesman who tried to persuade markets they were a digital innovator rather than an industrialist; he wasted money on oil and gas; he didn't innovate much; he gave away cash via share buy backs;

Housing, new home building

Housing, new home building--e.g., Nevada housing costs are high & rising, vacancy rates rock-bottom; yet builders are cautious; housing supply elasticities low-prices go up but not more supply; building 40% lower than pre 2008. Bad for renters-50% pay 30% of pretax income; bad for those who can't afford to buy first home; unless more building, housing will remain dear; 3 rationales: (1) rising construction costs--fewer projects viable, hard to find workers, fewer from Latin Amer.; labor costs high; tariffs raise building prices; (2) regs-project review times increased; minimum lot size retractions-->difficult to build dense housing; NIMBYISM; land use regs strong effect on supply elasticities; homeowners want to protect property value; progressive people; environmentalism; (3)less competitive-small big firms dominate; mergers; only big can navigate regs; market power-->reduce output, maximize profit; prices going up (1) due to low interest rates as borrowers can afford bigger mortgages or manage existing loans and yields on other assets have dropped; (2) fiscal policy and handouts

Huawei, current policy

Huawei, current policy-US forbade high-tech companies from selling to Huawei chips or tools that make them US and foreign firms can't use US built chipmaking equipment to create custom processors for Huawei; now prohibits anyone from selling any chips to Huawei-custom or not--if these were produced with US technology; this covers every chipmaker in the world--including Chinese ones. Closes all loopholes. Foreign chip firms may not want to supply Huawei and be sanctioned. But US chip firms are also in bind-if China retaliates, it could devastate supply chains of Apple and other US tech firms.US worries Huawei powered networks could help Chinese spying but also fears China's tech and economic ascent; doesn't want to surrender dominance;chip industry will be less efficient; as long as big microprocessor producers like Taiwan Semiconductor Man Co (TSMC) use US equipment they can't forge Huawei chips anywhere; we may de Americanize rather than de Sinify industry; cut them off of Apps; force Huawei to run out of stock of specialist chips; US may grant limited permits to Huawei to allow them to stay in business

Huawei, recommended policy

Huawei, recommended policy-In hardware land,—think electronics, networks & telecom systems—open-source design hasn't been popular. Building big end-to-end propriet systems has required large investments from big firms that produced large profits—e.g., Big Pharma with drug devel.The hardware world & electronics industry , though, knows its future looks like software's. The move to virtualization of hardware & rapid configuration of hardware functions through software is gathering pace in areas like networking &cloud provision. Open source hardware is becoming real, quickly. Combine the capabilities/strengths of diverse firms & research orgs across nations. Western nations can work as partners, combined with strong market-based policies/practices. Ban Huawei from 5G; In the short term, alternatives from an alliance of existing 5G competitors to Huawei—like Qualcomm, Nokia, Samsung, and Ericsson—could meet the more immediate need. That will give time for the more durable open hardware solutions to arrive in the mid-2020s; US should focus on openness, mobile networks-->hardware to software; we should subsidize research; mandate tech standards to virtualize mobile networks and create open source architecture networks and help carriers purchase equipment; bullheads (proprietary, vertical monopoly) vs. netheads (open source);

IPO Rush

IPO Rush-Ant Group (Alibaba's payment affiliate)-biggest--wants to raise $30bn in china by Oct--valued at $200Bn; Snowlfake-cloud software, DoorDash-food; Instacart-grocery delivery; Palantir-data management; AirBnb; whiff of "irrational exuberance in the air"; 2 reasons investors going public: (1) VC funds began to cool on startups when Lyft,Uber, &WeWork disappointed; rock bottom interest rates pushing public capital to seek returns--consequently stock market investors seek high returns; (2) pandemic has been boon for tech firms; firms spending a lot on cloud-computing to enable remote working; fundamental shift toward digital businesses; CrowdStrike cyber-security up 4x; alternative to public IPO is direct listing-Palantir, Spotify,Slack have done it; maybe Asana-project-management software-;uses electronic auction by stock exchange to get startups a fairer price than ibanks might; but do not allow firms to raise new money-only an option for cash-rich firms; another alternative-special-purpose acquisition co (SPACS)-shell firms that go public promising to buy one or more private cos with proceeds from listing; private business fills up listed shell through reverse merger

Ikea

Ikea-433 stores in 50 countries; internet fees are now 60% of all sales; shift to online will continue; expansion into city centers such as Manhattan's posh upper east side and to London; falling commercial property prices resulting from pandemic businesses bring bargains; wants to be climate positive by 2030; will reduce greenhouse gas more than its supply chain emits

India's IT tech service provider consultants

India's IT tech service provider consultants-Top 5 worth $200Bn. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys are the two big ones. Enterprise software to manage marketing, production, and inventory come from Oracle and Germany's SAP. Indian companies install and maintain software. They create ledgers, transaction platforms and risk controls. They help manage the world's big banks, retailers, telecom companies, and manufacturers. Tata (TCS) has more workers than Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Facebook, combined. 285 offices in 46 countries. In econ downturn, corporate clients are tightening purse strings. Challenges: corporate software easier to use, reduces demand for IT firms. Lucrative legacy business of running mainframes is evaporating. Helping clients shift to the cloud isn't making as much money Consultancies have not come up with killer apps with exception of AI to discern languages or contact tracing. Multinationals are more reluctant to outsource IT and many are creating subsidiaries in India to do the job in house. Pros: solve problems at modest cost;

Meal delivery

Meal delivery-Uber eats, postmates, and doordash rely on gig-economy couriers; sales growing but profits are elusive; Ubereats loses $1.10 for each order; Ubereats $313M operating loss in first quarter;

Metals, gold vs. copper

Metals, gold vs. copper-usually between copper & gold, when one rises, the other falls. In recession, gold climbs as investors seek a haven & copper dips as manufacturing and construction slow; gold rose in 2018 as US/china trade war clouded prospects for growth; gold helped by sinking interest rates in US that lowered yield on 10 yr bonds; COVID is helping gold even more as investors scramble for security; dollar has weakened too; copper had struggled when the economy was hit, especially China copper production is in S. America where supply has been constrained with reduced staff; continued infections could depress demand for appliances, car, and other copper-dependent goods; as for silver-think supply demand--mining strikes hurt supply; solar panels increase demand; new tech has replaced silver; in good econ times people spend more on jewelry that contains silver; viewed as safe haven; hedge against inflation; if dollar weakens, silver strengthens; moves with gold; if interest rates go up silver struggles

Microsoft

Microsoft-known for business-productivity tools; gaming business xbox brough 8% of 143bn revenues; looking to buy Tiktok; Microsoft would need to replace the app's chinese infrastructure; copy ByteDance's code and audit it; if it wants US teens to view videos uploaded by Japanese or British, it would have to license them from ByteDance;

Moore's Law Hardware Limits

Moore's Law Hardware Limits-Gordon Moore was a founder at Intel; says computational power on microchip should double every 2 years at a given cost; but costs are rising; shrinking chips is getting harder;quantum computer uses quantum mechanics to provide speed could help; # of transistors that can be crammed on chip 2005-1bn; 2020-50BN; challenge is that as components shrink electrons start to leak from connections between them, causing interference & unreliability; solution is better insulation between chip & component--solution known as amorphous boron nitride; innovation in neuromorphic chips to mimic electrical behavioral of human brain neurons;still far off; quantum computers are hard to engineer; limits in neuromorphic chips as scientists don't understand how brain works;

Nvidia, buying Arm

Nvidia, buying Arm-Nvidia,US co,that designs,makes,& sells computer chips, wants to buy Arm, which produces blueprints on which chips are built; Nvidia makes GPUS: pricey, specialized accelerator chips for gamers and AI number-crunching. $2.bbn in net profit, mostly selling powerful specialized chips used to play video games, or bolted onto existing machines in data-centers run by Google, Microsoft, or cloud-computing providers used to train AI; Chipmakers that currently rely on unfettered access to cutting edge chip designs worry they will lose it once Nvidia gets hold of Arm; may control rivals;Chinese chipmakers may worry that US firm, whose operations are in US, will give Fed power to block Arm's designs from getting to China; maybe Nvidia wants to combine its scale & Arm's designs to create general-purpose chips that keep data-centers humming; Intel dominates this market at the moment; Arm servers exist but they are mostly designed by firms like Tesla & Amazon for their own purposes; Nvidia could compete with Intel by licensing Arm's designs without buying the firm; Acquiring Arm would hand it control over the tech roadmaps of countless high-tech firms; Arm's tech could help Nvidia build its own versions of general-purpose processors that power data centre computers into which Nvidia's accelerators are installed (Intel's market)-Intel is world's biggest chipmaker. Hopes that baking its GPU expertise into Arm's designs will make it more attractive to customers such as Apple, Qualcom, and Samsung.

Office, future of

Office, future of-Pros in office-social capital; creativity; team spirit; prevents hierarchy ossification; better for people without offices at home or with noisy homes; some are lonely; less easy to fire someone; Cons-people hate expense and hassle of commuting-avg. 4hrs per week; noise and formality; discrimination; harder to care for children with 2 working parents; more retail spending; restaurant reservations risen; shorter metings; people willing to accept 8% cut; higher productivity on average; people work more hours; sick days plummet; why office--inertia; didn't want to write off sunk costs; didn't want to switch to remote before clients; trends-300M users; civil courts and notaries are online; banks doing more online for new accounts; prediction-office is hub not second home; people come a a few days a month; virtual offices rather than scheduling video calls;video message and share; within 5 years will put on a VR headset and be in a virtual office; recommendation-more targeted staff interactions; new tech that gamifies online interactions; group gathering at specific times to refresh friendships and swap info; fix employment law-can employers monitor? Who is liable for injuries at home? White colar resentment; city centre restructuring

Oracle

Oracle-world's 2nd largest software maker; owns Java-programming language; platform that developers can organize, update, and control large databases with products like MySQL, SQL Server, Larry Ellison-yesterday's Elon Musk; TikTok deal is making its brand recognizable; would like to emulate Microsoft not IBM; wants to host TikTok's data in its cloud; 90s dominated "relational database" market--which underlie corporate applications from book keeping to supply-chain management; customer stickiness due to high cost of switching databases; big profits; Oracle was late to cloud computing due to success in old IT; Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) less than $2bn sales compared to (AWS) $40bm. Adobe and Salesforce are other cloud based rivals. Even in Oracle's core "database" business, the world has moved on. Competition from more specialized cloud-based digital repositories and "open source" software. Share in database has fallen from 44% in 2013 to 28%. Pros-developing an "autonomous database" using AI to automate work once done by human IT admin. Software updates without shutting systems down; TiKTok would help OCI; they are developing a next-gen eration cloud platform; it is converting many customers to its new cloud-based applicatons wheich are more sophistocated than basic computing and storage from AWS and OCI; cloud-based services are already 8% of software rev

PPE, domestic production of

PPE, domestic production-For critical medical products—such as face masks, respirators, isolation gowns, commonly used medications, gloves and face shields—demand necessitates at least three global suppliers in the market from multiple regions, with at least one based in U.S. to protect against border closure; Since 1980s advocating for industrial policy has been anathema to most politicians and mainstream economists. The Washington establishment firmly rejects the idea, which it dubbed "picking winners and losers. Originated as a response to erosion of manufacturing, proposed industrial policies have included restricting imports from countries that failed to enforce labor and environmental standards; creating a manufacturing extension service to help struggling firms adapt cutting-edge technologies; offering job training programs for displaced blue-collar workers; and guaranteeing purchasing contracts for U.S.-located makers of critical goods. Instead of embracing those tactics, every administration, until the current one, pursued international trade agreements that called for lower tariffs and elimination of the hidden trade barriers that were inhibiting U.S. firms and farmers from selling more abroad. The result was ever higher trade deficit. Proponents believe we should use industrial policy to finance public health the same way it finances national defense

Qualcomm

Qualcomm-chinese sales make $11.6B out of $24.3B in rev. If Huawei sells off portions of HiSilicon, that could create new competition for Qualcomm.

Quantum computing

Quantum computing-quantum computing could boost trading algorithms and portfolio management; they can perform some calculations faster than any non-quantum machine; much more rapid thatclassical computer at searching a database; can revolutionize chemistry as most reactions are too complex for existing computers to simulate; can simulate chimical reactions--aiding the devolpment of drugs, catalysts and batteries; would speed up analysis of optimisation problem juggling many variables to maximize outcome-e.g., find bestroutes for trasport industry or finance to maximize profitablity; big for AI; big, stable quantum computers do not exist et; classical computing settled on silicon transistors as the units of computation; no consensus on how to build a quantum computer; some use trapped yterbium ions, manipulated by laers, to perform calculations; Microsoft focused on interactions of super-cold electrons; ; others with photons that run along wave-guides etched onto silicon chips; first commercially relevant in 2-3 years;

Rakuten

Rakuten-Mikitani Hiroshi (Mickey). Rakuten Mobile launched first 5G network based on OpenRaN. Instead of replicating the huge investments they have made in hardware, he used low-cost base stations, cloud-based architecture and software to create world's first fully commercialized virtualized network, adaptable for modular technology called OpenRaN. Low-cost alternative to hardware-obsessed telecom giants-using OpenRan as core of 5G infrastructure. Dish in the US is doing the same. Madrid-based Telefonica;rather than replacing antiquated kit with each new generation of mobile tech, it can be updated with software. Similar to Tesla's ablity to use software to upgrade its electric cars. Rakutans telecom ambitions may be constrained, however, by increased e-commerce competition from Yahoo and Amazon. Cons-technology may not work well in densely populated cities; hard to integrate many different products; supply chain is untested; disrupt Huawei, Ericsson, & Nokia; don't need a world developed by big proprietary tech; rely on networks based on advanced software, off the shelf hardware and open standards

Retailers

Retailers-online stores thriving but unloved; J.Crew filed for bankruptcy; JCPenney struggling; Macy's struggling; 300 dep't stores could go under 2020; cities would not have developed without department stores; nor would consumer economy; fostered democratization; suburban expansion has hurt downtown areas

Robots, walking

Robots, walking-short term-manufacturing operations for Ford; used to rearrange production lines to cut costs and save time; e.g, Fluffy and Spot Boston Dynamics-$75k; inspection and maintenance; e.g., enter hazardous environments like electrical substations without them having to be taken off grid; instead of just looking for problems, take action like throwing a switch or turning a valve; moving boxes in a warehouse, distribution and delivery of goods; mid-term-in the future could accomplish home deliveries; would need to undertake big data-acquisition effort, much like those used to build digital maps for driverless cars; powerful exoskeletons for those who cannot walk; and light weight prosthetic devices; long term-caring autonomously for someone at home; --administering medicines, deciding who to let in the house, knowing when to take dog for a walk;

SMIC

SMIC,-China's aspiring semicond champion; will raise $7b in state supported listing in Shanghai; China wants it to be on par with Intel or Taiwan's TSMC; US has attacked its supply chains and cut it off from high-tech tools; Dept of Com slapped export controls that prevent US chipmaking equipment to produce microprocessors for Huawei; new potential rules designating firm as subservient to People's Liberation Army; market cap quintupled in past year to $29bn; China's best hope of building domestic semiconductor industry; strong position to sell chips to Chinese electronics market; Sep. 4th DoD proposed putting SMIC on sameblacklist as Huawei, SMiC may no longer team up with HiSilicon

Samsung

Samsung-seller of smartphones, screens, TVs, and chips; 20% Skorea's exports; Apple and Sony are biggest customers for components from chips to OLED screens; if sales of phones suffer, the memory-chip provides ballast; Samsung Biologists-manufacturer of vaccines and pharmaceuticals is Skorea's 3rd most valuable company; Samsung needs to be more than manufacturer of chips, screens, and gadgets; wants to move to higher margin software and service didn't develop its own operating system to rival Apple--outsourced job to Google's Android; has doubled down on non-memory chips and biopharma instead of software; not strong for IoT; Chinese firms will give run for money in semi-conductors; Chinese Xiaomi-challenge in software/apps

Snowflake

Snowflake-makes database programs; went public on NYSE 9/16/20. Largest ever software IPO. Software for managing corporate data--a $55bn market; corporate applications--programs that keep tack of a firm's finances or its suppl chain--traditionally were built around databases housing all of a firm's important info in lean "relational databases"-e..g, Oracle; As storage got cheaper and data volumes exploded and moved on from tracking speicfic transactions but analyyzing all manner of data to glean relevant knowledge about a business, such as where certain products sell best; you can call these data warehouses; Snowflake went step further-one of the first firms to lift database systems from companies' in-house data centers and into computing clouds operated by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft; Snowflake customers can add capacity as as needed and pay based on use rather than fixed software license; its "multi-cloud" servie works across 3 big computing clouds; customers can "share and sell data" setting itself up as a data exchange; Snowflake could be next Oracle; Challenges-rival big cloud providers have been beefing up competing products; a few start ups are offering cheaper and more flexible "open source" alternatives such as Click House, a data-managemnt system provider; others are building more specilized digital repositoriessuch as -mongoDF; Confluent is big in "streaming" databases that gather info from sensors; future-data will rely on sundry specialized databases and be analyzed in real time rather than saved in conventional databsase; this will limit power and profits of any single supplier; past-assembly lines driven by single steam engane; today-disperse electric motors; past-parking garage all seats in one place and tieres in another; present-keep cars intact in the garage

Tesla

Tesla-in 7/20, overtook Toyota as most valuable carmaker; only made 370k cars in 2020 compared to 10M; worth $450bn in 8/20. Share of Evs will grow as emissions res tighten, price of batteries falls, and model choces expands; 3/100 sold cars will be pure electric or plug in hybrid in 2021; 20-25% by 2030; 2 to3 years ahead of rivals in technology; batteries have higher energy density-->better range and lower costs; hires best engineers; even stronger edge in software; cars are "shell around software and applications" partful due to vertically integrated manufacturing and interlinked systemsmost carmarkets outsource all tech outside internal-compustion engines to suppliers and focus on assembly and marketing; software makes Teslas improve with age due to "over-the-air" updates with new features, bug fixes, and performance upgrades; other revenue sources include : selling batteries, operating system or EV skateboard, data.

Trucking industry

Trucking industry-Teamsters used to have strong union in 80s that gave truckers great wages; Congress swept away limits on number of firms and price controls; union membership and trucker livelihoods plunged; lower wages supported big box retailing; online shopping reducing long-haul delivery of containers from port to Main St.; speeding up smaller packages from warehoused operated by retailers like Amazon/Walmart to peoples' doorstep; supply chain changes bringing manufacturing closer and decrease road haulage demand; fragmented industry; pressure to become leaner, cleaner, more automated; autonomous driving could reshape business; freight revenues in US are $800Bn, same as world's airline industry; 3.5M and 3M lorry drivers in US and Europe; 900k trucking firms 96% own less than 20 lorries; 25 biggest firms led by J.B. Hunt <1% of rev; short-haul segment will have change-UPS--who benefits from surging demand and increased profits despite extra D2D delivery; Uber freight developing an app to match carriers with shippers; autonomous driving could cut 40% of jobs; "driver assist" adaptive cruise control by 2025

Twitter vs. Facebook

Twitter vs. Facebook-Twitter's Jack Dorsey vs. Mark Zuck; Twitter flagged 2 Trump tweets-for falsity & glorifying violence; Zuck doesn't want to be "arbiter of truth"; both are social networks, connecting users & presenting feed content;each monitizes by selling ads & attracting users' attention; employs gobbets of data from users' behavior to allow advertisers to hit targets precisely, which pays; differences-Twitter is "speakers' corner-anyone can talk back; one-to many broadcast network; Fbook is one to one/few to replicate social relationships; Fbook gains more data on users b/c more engaged with other users; easier for targeted ads; Fbook-stronger network effects-each additional subscriber makes service better for others-attracts more Fbook 9x users; 21x rev; 12x profit; Fbook buys compet-Insta; what's app; Fbook more wary to moderating b/c more vulnerable to political favoritism accusations; Trump threaten antitrust if they fact check; Twitter has banned political adds; millennial left-leaning employees put pressure on bosses

Universities, future of

Universities, future of-will shrink in number and way they offer will change; a really great professor is better than video but that isn't right q--maybe I can't get to college at all b/c expensive or I live in rural area or professors are not motivated or classes are large--that is better than alternative that they have; goals-(1) teach people how to think, 2)prepare people for job market-tools; 3) explore identity-what we like; can we unbundle? (1) tyranny of clocktower-their schedule of classes (2) tribal shared experience-stadiums (3) fraternity house-mating through similar education and connections; partying; (4) signaling-e.g., admissions-you got into Harvard, so you got something special, VP of x club for resume; why will unbundling happen? Software is performing mating function now-40% found partner online and its cheaper; clocktower--you can do that online and have breakout rooms and smaller conversations; stadium-harder;

University/Covid 19

University/COVID-19-faculty with little experience may struggle; courses with hands-on components-clinical practicums, labs, performing arts will struggle; hard to do closed book tests b/c exams online; lower income students will suffer disproportionately--fewer resources, low-speed internet, more financial challenges; international enrollment tuition revs will go down; mental health resources; upgrade IT infrastructure; tuition revenues will fall given refunds for study abroad; online programs cheaper so calls to refund tuition portions; auxiliary revenues will erode-room, board, athletics, housing, meals, parking, summer program; increased attrition; fundraising challenged given economy; endowments fall; discover, decide, design, deliver; poor in-person lectures could be replaced by best professors in the world;

Value investing

Value investing-pioneered by Benjamin Graham and popularized by Warren Buffet-value means low price relative to recent book value of assets; typically asset-heavy firms in stodgy industries; past decade they have lacked 90% behind stockmarket; $1 a decade ago-->$2.50 today; $3.45 stock markt; $4.65 market excluding value stocks; places more weight on assets, cashflows and record, and less on investment plans and trajectory; has missed out on tech challenge is some features of value economy are not suited for today's economy. In new digital age, old-style valuation methods do not capture intrinsic worth of businesses; and shift from tangible to intangible capital; from factories, office buildings and machinery to sotfware, ideas and brands; think og Google's search algorithm; Microsoft Windows operating system; drug patent; publishing copyright; complex supply cahin or distribution channel are also intangible assets; skill of workforce; culture can add value but its hard to enter into spreadsheets; risk is to treat costs as an expense rather than investment that creates an asset; harder to value companies; price is a product of greed, fear and sentiment; value depends on earnings power; for the last decade value stocks have lagged behind general market and 'growth" stocks--their antithesis. 3 considerations for intangibles (1) measurement (2) characteristics--e.g., intangibles can be used by many sch as generic drug or semiconductor design vs. physical assets that can be used by one; consider scalability, sunkenness, spillovers and synergies; rise of externalities-value says inest in car and oil firms; but their prospect depend on liability from their carbon footprint--cost may rise as emissios tighten