BUSQOM Chapter 3

What time horizon(s) are used for strategic forecasts? -medium and long-term -short and medium term -medium term -long-term

Medium and long-term

A random error is any error that is -not explained by the forecast model -not observed in forecasting -explained by the forecast model -caused by employing the wrong trend line

Not explained by the forecast model

Market research uses data collection methods that are primarily -surveys and interviews -executive judgment -collaborative planning -historical data

surveys and interviews

Uses subjective or judgmental approach

Qualitative

What type of forecasts rely on the knowledge of experts and require judgment -quantitative -qualitative -random -subjective

Qualitative

Qualitative forecasts are _________ while quantitative forecasts are ________ -subjective; numerical -numerical; numerical -numerical; subjective -subjective; subjective

Subjective; numerical

Uses past data to predict future demand

Time series Analysis

When releasing a new product that is similar to an existing product, one could use which qualitative technique to develop a forecast? -delphi method -panel consensus -historical analogy -market research

historical analogy

Rank the five steps of collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) from start to finish -Creation of a front-end partnership agreement -Joint business planning -Sharing forecasts -Inventory replenishment -Development of demand forecasts

-Creation of a front-end partnership agreement -Joint business planning -Development of demand forecasts -Sharing forecasts -Inventory replenishment

Which of the following are potential sources of bias error? -failure to include the correct variables -use of the wrong relationship among variables -existence of an unidentified trend -employing the wrong trend line -random errors in the forecast

-Failure to include the correct variables -Use of the wrong relationship among variables -Existence of an unidentified trend -Employing the wrong trend line

Which of the following are examples of qualitative forecasting? (select all that apply) -time series analysis -market research -linear regression analysis -panel consensus

-Market research -Panel Consensus

Which of the following are challenges associated with the implementation of collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR)? (select all that apply) -resistance to change -concern about security breaches -inability to identify supply chain partners -lack of trust

-Resistance to change -Concern about security breaches -Lack of trust

Which of the following are characteristics of qualitative forecasting techniques? (select all that apply) -takes advantage of expert knowledge -requires significant levels of judgment -most useful when historical demand data is easily obtained -requires the use of a computer to complete calculations

-Takes advantage of expert knowledge -Requires significant levels of judgment

Currently, most applications of collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) have been in which industries (select all that apply) -general merchandise -food -apparel -agriculture

-general merchandise -food -apparel

What type of forecast is used for day-to-day decision making? -dependent -operational -tactical -strategic

-tactical

The forecast for last period was 100 units. Actual demand was 110 units. What was the forecast error? -110 units -0 units -10 units -20 units

110-100 = 10 units

Bias errors occur when _________. -a forecast is incorrect -a forecast is consistently too high (or too low) -a forecast alternatives between too high and too low -a forecast is neither too high nor too low

A forecast is consistently too high (or too low)

What web-based tool is being used as a means to integrate members of a supply chain? -E commerce -E procurement -Online auctions -CPFR

CPFR

Assumes that demand is related to some underlying factor in the environment

Causal Forecasting

What is the first step in CPFR? -sharing forecasts -joint business planning -creation of a front-end partnership agreement -development of demand forecasts

Creation of a front-end partnership agreement

The ________ method conceals the identity of participates and gives every participant the same influence

Delphi

Point-of-sale (POS) data would be used in which step of the CPFR process? -development of demand forecasts -joint business planning -inventory replenishment -sharing forecasts

Development of demand forecasts

True or false: Qualitative forecasts typically involve mathematical calculations

False

The difference between the actual demand and the forecast is referred to as -deviation -forecast error -inevitable -trend

Forecast error

Which of the following is not an example of qualitative forecasting technique? -market research -gamma method -historical analogy -panel consensus

Gamma Method

A firm is reluctant to initiate collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment because they feel their suppliers may use the process the process to justify higher prices. This firm is experiencing -competitive pressure -concern about security breaches -lack of trust -resistance to change

Lack of trust

Which qualitative forecasting technique is based upon the idea that a group of people with various backgrounds can develop a more reliable forecast than a narrower group? -historical analogy -market research -gamma method -panel consensus

Panel consensus

Which of the following examples does not use a tactical forecast? -process design -when to schedule a job -inventory replenishment -how much to produce next week

Process design

Which component of demand reflects the effects of chance events? -random variation -trend -seasonal elements -cyclical elements

Random variation

Demand trends include which of the following? -S curve -Linear -Asymptotic -Circular

S-curve Linear Asymptotic

Tactical forecasts are _______ term, while strategic forecasts are _________ term -short and medium; long -medium; long -short; long -short; medium and long

Short; medium and long

Allows the forecaster to run through a range of assumptions

Simulation

What type of forecast should be used for strategy, sourcing, and location decisions? -independent -tactical -strategic -operational

Strategic

CPFR coordinates all of the following except -transportation -demand forecasting -production and purchasing planning -inventory replenishment

Transportation

True or false: Historical analogies are useful for forecasting new products with similar growth patterns and concepts of previous products

True

True or false: the difficulty with using a panel consensus is that lower-level employees may be intimidated by higher levels of management

True

When a consistent mistake is made in a forecast, this is classified as ________ error -bias -forecast -calculated -random

bias

In the food industry, collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) is estimated to generate cost savings of _____ each year -$3 million -$3 billion -$30 billion -$300 billion

$30 billion

Which qualitative technique develops a forecast by polling participants multiple times on a expected forecasts? -Delphi method -Panel consensus -Historical analogy -Market research

Delphi method

A qualitative forecasting technique that is useful for identifying what consumers like and dislike about a product is ________ -panel consensus -historical analogy -Delphi method -market research

market research

In time series analysis, __________ demand is used to predict _________ demand -historical; current -current; future -past; future -future; past

past; future

Which of the following is not a component of demand? -random -trend -seasonal -planned

planned

If an error cannot be explained by the forecast model being used, it is called ________error -forecast -unexplained -random -mysterious

random

What type of forecasts are used for forecast decisions related to strategy and aggregate demand? -tactical -operational -aggregate -strategic

strategic