Climate Change

Two-Step Process for Describing Climate Change Impacts

1. Epidemiologic Approach 2. Health Impact Assessment Approach

Key Strategies of Adaptation

1. Identify Vulnerabilities in the physical environment and population demographic 2. Tracking of diseases, zoonotics, and environmental conditions 3. Climate Smart Design of communities and buildings 4. Public Education on preparedness

Progress in Legislative Action to Combat Climate Change

1. Supreme Court ruled that CO2 is a clean air pollutant and the EPA has the power to regulate it (2007) 2. 18 states have regional agreements to reduce GHGs 3. EPA endangerment findings (2009) • current GHG levels are a threat to public health 4. 2 new adaptation bills introduced (2011) 5. EPA's new carbon rule (2012) • EPA is in charge of settling limits on carbon pollution • made the "carbon rule" to limit GHGs from new power plants and scale up the shift to cleaner fuels

Energy Efficiency

1. design and construction practices that reduce or eliminate the negative impact of building on the environment in five broad areas: • energy efficiency/renewable energy • sustainable site planning • safeguarding water/water efficiency • conservation of materials/resources • indoor environmental quality 2. rely more on renewable energy sources • NYC residential customers can specify 100% renewable power instead of nuclear, but it costs a little more 3. biological carbon sequestration 4. reduce other GHGs from industry, agriculture, waste management

Sources of Halocarbons

CFCs in refrigerants and cleaning solvents

Philly's Health Warning System

The System: 1. Identifying Vulnerabilities: city workers and agencies identify where elders live, during heat waves neighbors check on them via a buddy system 2. Tracking: National Weather Service, Dept. of Public Health, Corporation for Aging, news media are all in contact when a heat wave is predicted, streamlining the notification of the public 3. Climate Smart Design: Cool Homes Program encourages people to have energy-efficient designs and includes free energy audits 4. Public Education: cooling centers have opened up, no utility service suspensions will happen during heat wave, more fire and EMS staff hired; public have been educated about what to do/what not to do in a heat wave

Sources of Methane

agriculture, specifically cow farts

Kyoto Protocol (1997)

binding targets to reduce emissions to 5% below 1990 levels by the year 2012 enforced in 2005 for industrial countries that had ratified it

Mitigation

efforts to reduce the HARM of something example: interventions to reduce emissions of GHGs would be GHG laws, energy efficiency standards, increases in renewable energy, reduction of GHGs from industry, decarbonization

Adaptation

efforts to reduce the VULNERABILITY of something example: initiatives to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against the actual or expected effects of climate change

Inertia and Climate Change

even if GHGs were to stop increasing today, the temperature will continue to increase for some time; the long half-life of GHGs means that their effects will continue—and the trajectory of warming will continue apace—until the gases in the system already begin to decay

NY Climate and Health Project

examined the potential public health impacts of heat and air pollution on NYC under alternative scenarios of climate change and regional land use with projections for 2020, 2050, and 2080

Sources of Ozone

naturally found in the troposphere, ground-level ozone is the result of exhaust from vehicles reacting with sunlight

Health Impact Assessment Approach

predict future health impacts by modeling future climate-related exposures (assuming historical exposure response relationships will operate); provides answers to questions of "What if...?"

Greenhouse Effect

some of the infrared radiation from the sun passes through the atmosphere, but most is absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules and clouds and re-emitted in all directions; this warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth's surface

Epidemiologic Approach

study and quantify historical relationships between climate-related exposures and human health outcomes; goal is to identify and quantify the exposure response

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)

voluntary reduction in GHGs to 1990 levels by the year 2000 stabilize at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (aka, man-made) interference with the climate

Sources of Carbon Dioxide

when there is fuel combustion there is a release of carbon dioxide example: burning of coal

Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)

• Carbon Dioxide • Ozone • Nitrous Oxide • Methane • Water Vapor • Halocarbons

Current Effects of Global Warming

• Norfolk, VA: 14.5" sea level rise since 1930 • steadily rising sea level in NYC (measurements taken since 1888) • flooding in Pakistan • droughts in western U.S.

Mitigation Strategies

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • Kyoto Protocol • Energy Efficiency

Sources of Nitrous Oxide

• agriculture is the chief source, specifically through soil cultivation, fertilizers containing nitrogen, and animal waste activating naturally-occurring bacteria • burning of fossil fuels

Human Behavior and Climate Change

• carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide concentrations were all relatively stable until the industrial revolution, there has been a marked increase since 1750 and concentrations now far exceed pre-industrial levels • halocarbons, which are greenhouse gases, are man-made • huge increases in carbon emissions coincide with rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and rise in temperature

Sources of Water Vapor

• evaporation from oceans, soil, and rivers • this is a self-accelerating cycle; as temperatures increase, more water evaporates and enters the atmosphere and the more water vapor there is in the atmosphere, the more temperatures increase

Findings of NYC Climate and Health Project

• in the absence of further prevention measures, summer heat-related mortality could double by 2050 • depending on pollution controls, summer ozone-related mortality could increase slightly • take away... heat affects mortality more than ozone

Projected Effects of Global Warming

• land areas projected to warm more than oceans, with greatest warming at high latitudes • Bangladesh projected to lose about 17% of its land area if there is a sea level rise of one meter • global temperature expected to rise by 3.1°C by 2085 • other health impacts: heatwaves, air pollution, pollen, water-borne diseases, food shortages, decreased water supply, mental health effects, environmental refugees

Evidence of Global Warming

• surface temperature increase • tropospheric temperatures increasing • atmospheric water vapor content increasing • ocean heat content increasing > increase in sea level • Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets losing mass • glaciers and snow cover decreasing • arctic sea ice content decreasing • mid-latitude wind patterns/storm tracks shifting poleward • more intense, longer droughts • frequency of heaving precipitation events increasing • extreme temperatures increasing • tropical cyclone intensity increasing