ESP1 Midterm 2

Hydrosphere changes: precipitation

-Observed changes in annual precipitation over land -Likely increases in some areas, varies by region

Climate change

-Climate change as a global CPR prob -Instrument choice and climate change policy -Level of US policy action: local, state, regional, international

CAFE probs

(unintended consequences) -inc in price of cars -ppl keep older less fuel efficient cars bc of price inc -less safe cars -rebound effect: driving is cheaper bc you can go farther on one gallon of gas so ppl drive more -harm to US auto industry bc they have a harder time complying than foreign industries so loss in US jobs

Bioprospecting

- the discovery and commercialization of new products based on biological resources -When is bioprospecting actually biopiracy (the exploitation of indigenous knowledge of commercial entities -The Conventional on Biological Diversity (CBD) gives rights over access to genetic resources to those countries where the resources are located --Bioprospectors must obtain informed consent (wait for gov to say yes) when operating in a country --They must share benefits w the country where the resource originates (must share findings w other country's gov) --CBD enforcement and implementation has been criticized (prob is these are not widely enforced)

Ecosystem functioning

- the flow of energy and materials through the arrangement of biotic and abiotic components of an ecosystem -Includes ecosystem processes: primary production, trophic transfer from plants to animals, nutrient cycling (resource dynamics and ecosystem stability)

principles of economic valuation

--Values are usually measures in monetary units, but could be measured other ways --Prices are not necessarily values -Direct use value: directly using a resource -Indirect use value: resources used indirectly -Option value: our future or possible use -Bequest value -Existence value

taxonomic levels

-7 lvls from general (bottom) to specific (top) Ex. animals in general on bottom to camel bactrianus at top

successfully adapting to climate change

-Adapting successfully means minimizing disaster risk, which is the potential for losses due to disasters over a specific time period. Losses may include: Injury, illness, death, destruction, ecosystem damage... etc

aerosol

-Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation and affect cloud cover (energy out) --Natural sources: volcanoes --Human sources: fossil fuel combustion, particulate matter

Ecosystem services: cultural

-Aesthetic -Spiritual -Educational -recreational

albedo

-Albedo determines the reflection of solar radiation --Natural influences: cloud cover, snow cover, vegetation cover (depends on albedo of surface) --Human influences: land use change

Principles of economic valuation

-Anthropocentric values (What is the value to us) -Economic value (is based off of individual preferences (what people want) -values reflect trade-offs (how much of the one thing to give up for another) -Values as the amount of money an individual would be "willing to pay" to obtain something or "willing to accept" in compensation to give something up --Without market failure, WTP=WTA --Economic values are evaluated from a change (gain, loss)

Climate change as a CPR (common pool resource)/ public good problem Why?

-Any jurisdiction that takes actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, incurs the costs of its actions -The benefits (averted climate change) are distributed globally -Ppl in that country have to pay more to help climate change globally -Benefits it individually experiences < costs it incurs for reducing greenhouse gasses, even though global (social) benefits > global (social costs) -CPR Because an individual can drive their car that emits CO2 creating pollution that damages the climate and causes c=global warming. You harm the climate for everyone. You cannot be prevented/ excluded from driving your car and damaging the climate -Is subtractible but is not excludable

are CV survey results reasonable

-Are they similar and consistent w theory --Values inc when income inc --Environmentalists WTP more -Are the results similar to results from revealed preference approaches (looking at what ppl do w their money vs asking them)

How does contingent valuation (CV) work?

-Ask ppl their willingness to pay or accept to bring about a specific environmental improvement -Sum up the individual payments (WTP or WTA) to come up w aggregate measures of the passive use values to society

Addressing the global CPR prob: market-based

-Assign property rights to greenhouse gas emissions -Cap-and-trade systems, or systems for taxing emissions

biodiversity as insurance

-Biodiversity can be an important defense against disaster in the form of new diseases -Biodiversity is likely to play a very important role in our ability to adapt to global change --Ex. a hotter climate may require different crop varieties

Climate change on biodiversity

-Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming -Climate debt: biotic responses observed in nature do not match those expected under the assumption of complete synchrony w climate change, leading to a disequilibrium or lag that generates a climate debt

biodiversity as knowledge

-Biodiversity is a source of knowledge -We can and do learn from natural organisms hoe to make chemicals that have important and valuable properties -Medicinal uses from plants -Bark that helps cancer -Chemicals are often derived from natural examples

What kinds of policy instruments: Command and control example

-CAFE (corporate avg fuel economy) restrictions --Regulate fuel economy standards -fines for manufacturers out of compliance

Complex dynamics create uncertainty

-CO2 fertilization may inc productivity, but inc evapotranspiration and drought may limit it -Rainfall and drought will affect productivity

CV survey questions

-Careful description of goods to be valued (must ask very specific questions so you can get informed accurate answers) --What would you be WTP for environ improvement --What would you pay for inc visibility in the grand canyon from 1 mile to 1.5 miles?

Impacts on food production: agriculture

-Changing to warmer and drier climate -Complex dynamics create uncertainty -Models show strong negative effects of climate change, esp at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes -Nitrogen causes a more negative effect

Ecosystem services: regulating

-Climate regulation --Trees take CO2 out of the air; nature mitigates climate change -Flood regulation -Disease regulation -Water purification

Addressing the global CPR prob: command-and-control

-Countries may sign treaties -Make policies applicable within their jurisdiction -Primarily motivated by co-benefits -Co-benefits: additional benefits resulting from an action (greenhouse gas reductions) --Co-benefits bring a jurisdiction's individual benefits and costs more in line w social benefits and costs --Co-benfits are most compelling when they are excludable at the jurisdiction level

Climate change vs ozone hole

-Diff part of the atmosphere -Ozone hole: stratosphere -Climate change: troposphere (From transportation)

non-native species

-Direct effects --Competition with native species for resource --Predation of native species --spread disease -Indirect effect --Alter habitat and disturbance regime --Ex. humans introduce a new species that alters the current habitat and the native species can no longer survive in the habitat

Addressing the global CPR prob: community-based

-Efforts to create a global community committed to address this issue, with shared language, norms, and values -Address issues at state, local levels in the US

Assigning economic values

-Ex. what are the benefits and costs of cleaning 100 hectares of forest -Think of all the benefits and costs that are lost or gained when the forest is cleared, and then attach a $ value to them

Ecosystem services: provisioning

-Food -Freshwater -Wood and fiber fuel

Approaches to estimate background/ normal extinction rate

-Fossil data -Molecular phylogenies -Use the speciation rate to estimate

UNFCCC

-Goal to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a lvl that would prevent us from great harm -No targets and no enforcement, it provided a framework for negotiating specific treaties that may involve limits and enforcement -Recognized there is an issue and that they are committed to addressing it -These conferences of parties (COPs) led to Kyoto

Paris Agreement

-Goal was to achieve a legally binding, universal agreement for addressing climate change -Aim: keep global warming below 2 degrees Celcius over pre-industrial levels, create a treaty to be implemented in 2020 -Countries committed to set their own targets for emission reductions by 2020 -US participates -Acknowledges common but differentiated responsibilities (developing countries may reduce less emissions) -Private sector pushes gov to take action by pledging a lot of money -US signed in Nov 2016 -Trump plans to withdraw in June 2017 but cannot withdraw until 2020 bc of 5 year cycles -Every country in the world has signed on except for the US plans to withdraw -Will it work? No, paris agreement is not enough to get us to goal, temps would rise to about 3 degrees C

Major causes of biodiversity loss

-Habitat destruction and degradation (largest contributor) -Non-native species -pollution -over-harvest -disease

Severe weather

-Heatwave frequency has in increasing -Storms (More intense) -Fires (Higher temps lead to inc evaporation rates and thus more rapid drying of soils and Earlier snowmelt extends the duration of fire seasons

Non-market Valuation and the economic value of biodiversity: Ecosystem services

-Humans benefit from nature -Are direct and indirect 1. supporting 2. provisioning 3. regulating 4. cultural -indirect -direct

Impacts of climate change on the hydrosphere

-Hydrosphere changes: sea ice -Hydrosphere changes: sea level -Hydrosphere changes: precipitation -Hydrological cycle: hurricane and cyclones

Future extinction rates

-IUCN Red List index of bird species survival -Rate move between classification for lvl of threat -Projected future extinction rate is more than 10 times higher than current rate

Changing to warmer and drier climate

-Inc in temp in higher latitudes by 2 degrees have inc productivity -Inc in temp in lower latitudes by 2 degrees have dec productivity -Inc in temp by 3 degrees causes a dec in productivity everywhere

race to the bottom and prevention of it

-Incentive is to lower environmental standard to attract that industry away from somewhere else -To prevent this: factories should all face the same incentives

unintended consequences of ESA

-Incidental take permit allows property owner to conduct otherwise lawful activities in the presence of listed species -Took more than 22 yrs for monitoring requirements (monitoring how E and T species are doing) to be implemented -Scorched earth technique: property owner must maintain property in a condition such that protected species cannot occupy the property (make it so species can't live on property)

Human health

-Increased rainfall, flooding, and humidity creates more viable areas for vector (infectious disease) breeding and more rapid vector breeding -Temp-related death and illness, air quality impacts, extreme events, vector-borne diseases, water-related illness, food safety nutrition and distribution, mental health and well-being

Does CV stand today?

-Is currently our best option -Is controversial -Only if certain criteria are met -NOAA assembled standard

Geoengineering

-Is the intentional manipulation of the environment at a global scale (to offset the warming on a global scale) -Allows us to continue to emit GHG so if something goes wrong with the geoengineering solution there will be an enormous amt of CO2 released in to the atmosphere -examples: --Carbon capture and sequestration --Air capture (build fake trees that capture CO2 and bury it) --Solar radiation management: decrease solar radiation and inc surface albedo --Oceanic iron fertilization

CV choice of payment mechanisms

-Mechanisms must be believable (inc sewer fees to improve H2O quality) -It should not be controversial (ex property values) --Ppl don't like taxes so they might not be responding about the trees, it may be bc they don't like taxes and are protesting taxes so they don't want to pay any -Aspects of payment mechanism to be considered --Nature of payment --Frequency --____ -Aggregating up to the pop --Matters bc in CBA you aggregate the estimates of mean WTP for relevant pop (survey citizens of new england, citizens across the country, some other group?) ---If ppl live far then the issue may not matter to them so you will get a diff aggregate WTP

Climate change can result in 4 categories of hazards

-Meteorological -Hydrological -Climatological -Biological

Copenhagen accord

-No consensus on a new legally binding treaty (kyoto ended in 2012) -Leading emitters agreed to develop voluntary emission reduction targets for 2020 -Global temp inc should be kept below 2 degrees Celcius -GHG emissions must peak in 2020 and then reach pre-industrial levels (we don't use GHG, everything uses renewables)

Probs of using regulatory approaches

-No guarantee that these measures will be cost-effective or efficient -Potentially one-size-fits-all (heterogeneity), not responsive to all conditions --Some companies may decide to pay tax or buy up more allowances bc that benefits them --Other companies may decide to reduce pollution -May be administratively cumbersome --Takes a lot of cost/gov resources to put in place -Command-and-control methods rarely promote innovation -Congress is not made up of environ experts, and so delegates to administrative agencies --Delegates are the ones that write the permits --The delegates aren't elected so they don't represent the will of the ppl (they pursue their own agendas and may not follow what the elected officials want (elected official rep the wants of the people) -rise/ harm-based standard can be difficult to calculate

offsets

-Offsets are credits -A GHG offset is generated by the reduction, avoidance, or sequestration of GHG emissions -Counteract or offset GHG that would have been emitted -Emission reductions are achieved outside the capped sector -Offsets can restore degraded land, protect endangered species, improve local air quality, can be cost-effective for producers --Ex. emit 5% but offset it by restoring a wetland by 5%

starting point bias

-Options of how much WTP affects ppls thinking --Ask about higher values this will influence response --Ask about lower values will give lower money values -what value you start at will affect where you end with CV surveys

Bioprospecting Concerns

-Patents are not on plants, they're on specific chemicals/ compounds extracted -Indigenous and local communities may not have the technical or economic resources or knowledge to challenge patents in the court system -Indigenous and local communities often have restricted, Unequal representation in international negotiations -Benefit-sharing requirements are at the country level, not the regional or community level

impacts of climate change on biodiversity

-Phenology -Range shifts -Acclimation -Evolution and genetic changes

Water resources

-Precipitation pattern shifts -Climate is expected to lead to some regions experiencing too much water and some too little

Endangered Species Act

-Provided uniform protections to native species and those threatened by extinction worldwide -Species classified as endangered (E) or threatened (T) -Import and sale of listed species disallowed -All federal agencies were required to undertake programs for the conservation of E and T species and prohibited from taking actions that could jeopardize a listed species or destroy/ modify its "critical habitat" (areas that contain the physical or biological features that are essential to the conservation of the species and may need special management or protection) -The decision to list a species cannot be informed by cost consideration. Can only be based on scientific and commercial date -Broad taking prohibition (harass, harm, shoot, pursue, capture, collect) applied to all endangered species -Matching federal funds available to states w cooperative agreements -authority was provided to acquire land for species listed under CITES

Ecosystem services: direct

-Provisioning services (Take a fish from the ocean and it's mine) -Regulating services -Cultural services (Go into nature to have a spiritual benefit)

What 2 behaviors do we expect from entities using a CPR or a public good

-Race to harvest/ extract (CPR) -Free-riding (CPR, public good)

Climate drivers

-Radiative forcing -greenhouse effect -aerosol -albedo

Radiative forcing

-Radiative forcing= energy in - energy out -Difference between energy in and energy out -Measure the amt of energy planet earth is out of balance

greenhouse effect

-Reduces the amt of infrared radiation that can leave the earth; Inc the amt of infrared radiation in atmosphere increasing amt of energy in on earth -Solar radiation: changes tilt and orbit shape change sunlight exposure (energy in)

Regional Initiatives

-Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) -Has had little impact bc low natural gas prices encouraged conversion to gas, resulting in emissions lower than the overall cap, but the cap was tightened and was effective

Indirect use value: resources used indirectly

-Regulating services (ex. Flood prevention, water purification) -I get a service from wetland so I want to protect the wetland

Acclimation and Adaptation

-Reversible changes over days to weeks in response to altered physical conditions -Acclimatization -Acclimation -Involves phenotypic plasticity rather than changes in genotypes such as selection or evolutionary adaptation

defining uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions

-Scenario uncertainty: in how much GHG emissions will occur -Model uncertainty: in the climate, a given specific amount of GHG emissions (gives a range of values)

Other consequences and impacts by climate change

-Sea level rise -Water resources -Severe weather -Human health -Natural security

Sea level rise

-Sea lvl has risen 3 inches globally in the last 20 yrs -Estimates predict sea level will rise up to 6.6 feet by 2100 -Ice in water does not contribute to sea level rise, land-ice melting does

Kyoto protocol

-Set binding limits on industrialized countries to reduce GHG emissions, but not in developing countries -Rooted in common but differentiated responsibilities (developing countries don't have the money to focus on this so shouldn't have to) -Goal to reduce emissions by 5% -Was intended to be a first step towards more regulations -Develop national policies to reduce GHG -Participation in emissions trading programs -Develop joint implementation programs -Clean development mechanism (give tech to less developed countries to reduce emissions and count reductions as your own- is good bc is cheaper to do in developing countries than their own) -US did not sign on bc no limits on major emitters (China, India) -Was a success

Cap and trade

-Sets amount of allowable emissions -Unknown price

Will bioprospecting help protect biodiversity?

-Should we expect that the considerable returns form discovering new compounds or chemicals can incentivize the conservation of the biodiversity -Not likely -Diamond-water paradox: not everything that is important will have a high value in the marketplace -It takes millions of $ and 10+ yrs for drug development

Hydrosphere changes: sea ice

-Steep decrease of ice cover in the past 15 yrs -Very likely thickness decreased since 1980

Ecosystem services: indirect

-Supporting services --Underly, provide for, or allow the creation of direct services

Babbitt v sweet home

-Taking is not just killing a bird, it also includes modifying where a species breeds, feeds or finds shelter, that can constitute a taking -ESA regulation lead to landowners to cut their timber sooner than they would have otherwise

Sierra club vs lyng

-Texas has habitat that a species could live on but currently didn't, ppl were cutting down trees but species could live there so it is critical habitat -Land owner made substantial efforts to improve the quality of land so woodpecker started living there -Trees could no longer be cut down -I can't afford to let woodpeckers take over the rest of the property so its in his best interest to clearcut now so he can use that land for getting wood and it won't be protected

Ecosystem productivity

-The rate of generation of biomass in an ecosystem

Hydrosphere changes: sea level

-Thermal expansion causes sea level rise --Volume of water expands when the water warms up -Loss of land-based ice causes sea level rise --Ex. melting of Greenland ice raises sea level (not melting of sea ice) -IPCC: sea levels rise since 1970s is very likely due to anthropogenic activities

biodiversity and markets: productivity

-To the extent that diversity increases productivity in agricultural systems, we would expect that farmers would be willing to pay for it -We see crop rotations but the number of crops are limited

Multiple causes interact

-Types of interactions between impacts --Additive (independent) --Antagonistic (one decreases susceptibility to other) --Synergistic (one increases susceptibility to other) effect greater than A+B

other use values

-Values of goods and services that are reflected through behavior --Recreation, tourism, property values --Measure by willingness to pay for a change in the quantity or quality of a good or service -Non-use (passive) use --Values for goods and services that do not have ____ ---Use surveys to determine value

Direct use value: directly using a resource

-Walking in the woods for an hour (is an hour you spent not working your job) -For fishing: how much in wages did you forgo, how much was the fishing rod, the cooler

Interim COPs (conferences of parties)

-Wanted more binding limits bc Copenhagen was not binding -Held annually for UNFCC participants to discuss progress

Hydrological cycle: hurricane and cyclones

-Warming climate makes more rain and makes storms more intense, but maybe not more frequent -No significant trend between frequency of hurricanes and cyclones and climate change -IPCC: it is likely increase in intensity of tropical cycles, but not frequency (will vary by region)

biodiversity and markets: insurance

-We all buy insurance so will ppl pay for the insurance that biodiversity provides? -Not likely bc the insurance provided by biodiversity is a public good -Why the possible change? Privatization of a public good via agricultural biotechnology

Design issues for market-based measures

-Which users to regulate (Upstream or downstream?) -Temporal and distributional (Grandfathering vs auctioning allowances) -How and when to tighten cap or rate of tax inc -Whether offsets can be used in a cap-and-trade program

additional services (biodiversity and markets)

-You could sell the services of natural ecosystems and use the revenue to provide incentives for conserving biodiversity that supports these services -Watersheds and forest cover are an example (payments for ecosystem services, or PES) --Citizens raise money and give to farmer so that they have money and don't need to farm. Farmer is compensated if he does not farm bc the ppl value the ecosystem --Ex. carbon sequestration services of forests under Paris Accord --Eco-tourism --Non-timber forests

Benefits of using regulatory approaches

-You get uniform standards that help prevent a "race to the bottom" (race to have to lowest standards) -Uniform, nationwide standards are designed to give everyone access to the same basic lvl of envion quality -Certainty in pollutant abatement Ex. you can't buy hairspray w CFCs in it -Regulation can be proactive rather than reactive

prevention/ reduce exposure

-actions that avoid or minimize the adverse impacts of hazards --Ex. raise wells so they aren't contaminated by floodwater --Improve drainage of floodwaters --Have a way to get out of car in an emergency

Preparedness

-actions that enhance capacity to response to a disaster that has occcured -Make sure community members have boats and know how to swim, install an early warning sysem

Valuation

-assuming that we can put a dollar value on ecosystem services -Can we actually capture all of the benefits provided in one dollar value?

Ecological levels

-biodiversity (bottom) to genes to species to ecosystem (top) -genes (top), pops, sub-spevies, species, communities, ecosystems (bottom)

command-and-control regulations

-give one central authority control over the resource and allow it to make laws governing its use -How does the solution hold up in climate mitigation: --Citizens may not want gov to address climate change (if they don't believe in climate change) --Unrealistic that one gov could make a difference to a global issue (Need a world government) -Countries are sovereign states. There is no world gov

Issues w Paris implementation

-climate financing (where is the money being given to poor countries coming from?) -transparency (should developing countries meet the same reporting requirements as developed? US wants it, but developing don't) -US is halfway to its goal due to action from cities, states, and companies. There has been no federal action

Valuation informs cost-benefit analysis

-cost -benefit analysis evaluates the favorable effects of policy actions and the associated opp costs of those actions. The favorable effects are defined as benefits and the opportunities foregone define economic costs --Want benefits larger than cost

implications of carbon tax

-costs of addressing the policy are unknown -amt of emissions is unknown and depends on price, tech, responses to the price, etc

How much biodiversity on our planet

-currently 1.75 million species -Estimated total number of species on the planet is 13 million species

ecosystem services and biodiversity

-ecosystem productivity -insurance -knowledge

community-based

-establish shared norms, languages, values, and mechanisms for collective decision-making so that ppl can work together to care for the resource -How does the solution hold up in climate mitigation: --This is the least assured and weakest approach, but it is the only one that doesn't require a world gov and is what we do (Kyoto protocol)

carbon tax pros

-fiscal considerations (would cut emissions a certain amount and raise revenue a certain amount) -price stability (tax fixes the price of emissions over time) -revenue-neutral tax (revenue can be recycled by cutting other taxes, such as income taxes)

Mass extinction

-times when the earth loses more than 75% of species in a geographically short interval (million-2 million yrs) -5 mass extinctions so far -Each last a few million yrs -Lost up to 95% of marine life -Take a few million yrs to recover

Species

-groups of actually or potentially interbreeding individual's which are reproductively isolated from all other organisms and create viable offspring --Representing species diversity: phylogenetic tree ---branch length reps amount of time

best practices

-involve all key stakeholders in action planning -monitor and assess adaptation activities during and after implementation -ensure that social/ cultural customs are considered -ensure that vulnerable groups are represented -use multiple assessment approaches to capture all dimensions of greater risk -be sensitive to gender and power dynamics -maintain flexibility

Habitat destruction and degradation

-largest contributor to biodiversity loss -Destruction (land used for something else) -Degradation (quality reduced, including edge area) 70% of the world's forest is close to the edge and cannot support species as well

market-based solution

-make the resource private property. Assign rights to the resource to ppl and allow them to use their property in the way they find most beneficial -How does the solution hold up in climate mitigation: --The backbone of a market-based system is still the gov, which must assign property rights and enforce them. However, there is no world gov --Assigning rights to a non-tangible, global, spatially and temporally diffuse resource (the atmosphere) is difficult

non-response bias

-only those who care about the issue will respond to the survey --Most likely extreme views on both sides of spectrum

How to reduce vulnerability

-prevention/ reduce exposure -preparedness -Increase adaptive capacity: -Reduce sensitivity -adopt best practices

background/ normal extinction rate

-refers to the standard rate of extinction in earth's geological and biological history before humans became a primary contributor to extinctions. This is primarily the pre-human extinction rates during periods in between major extinction events

carbon tax

-set a price for CO2 (proportional to carbon content of fuel)

types of bias in CV studies

-strategic bias -non-response bias -survey instrument bias -information bias

anchoring

-the order in which you ask will affect the amount of money -will give more money to first thing asked about

Genetic diversity

-the total number of genetic characteristics in the genetic makeup of species -It enables pop to adapt to environment and respond to natural selection --Prevents pop extinction if one type is affected by disease -Genetic diversity inc with environmental variability (diff parts of world w same species have slightly diff versions of the species w diff characteristics) -Genetic variability enables gene flow and the creation of new pops (applies to crops and animals)

Ecosystem services: supporting

-underlies all other services -nutrient cycling -soil formation -primary production

rarefaction curve

-used to estimate the number of species - Plots how many species vs previously known species are discovered per unit time (or sampling effort) --Steep for low sampling effort --Will plateau as more species are discovered --Line will be steep and then flatten out as you find the total number of species per unit time --Graph: number of individual's collected vs number of species discovered

CV Content validity critiques

-what are you measuring (all influence ppls behavior that can skew value) -Respondents may be expressing value for a class of goods --General preference for environ quality (may not actually care about issue, may give same amt to any cause) -Warm glow from supporting good causes (WTP does not inc when more birds can be protected, ppl just care about helping the cause) -People reacting to news (oil spill)

CA's Global Warming Solutions Act

1. Cap and trade 2. Renewable portfolio standards (setting a goal for the amt of renewable energy used in the state) 3. Low carbon fuel standard (LCF) -Cap declined over time (good) -Offsets allowed but capped -10% of allocations were auctioned and the rest were grandfathered, amt auctioned will inc each year

Measuring the role of humans in climate change: Radiative forcing

1. Natural driver: solar irradiance 2. Anthropogenic: surface albedo, contrails, aerosol-radiation interaction, aerosol-cloud interaction 3. Anthropogenic: ozone has a warming effect 4. Anthropogenic: well-mixed greenhouse gasses 5. Total anthropogenic impacts are WAY larger than natural drivers

What are the 3 general solutions to CPR probs?

1. command-and-control regulation 2. market-based 3. community-based

Factors that makeup vulnerability

1. human 2. physical 3. natural 4. social 5. financial 6. political

Responses of the biosphere to climate change

1.Movement (move from one area to another) 2. Acclimation (phenotypic change to adapt to change 3. Genetic adaptation (evolutionary change aka evolutionary rescue)

nitrous oxide main sources

Agricultural soil management

Intergovernmental Panel on climate change(IPCC)

Assess causes, impacts, and response strategies to climate change

main greenhouse gasses

CO2, methane, nitrous oxide

pollution

Change environment (water quality) affects species survival rate Accumulation in species up food chain

carbon tax cons

politically ppl don't like taxes, gas tax may be regressive (tax those w low income)

Natural security

Environmental refugees, the poor are more likely to be refugees bc they are more exposed to environmental hazards (ex. Living in low-lying areas, steep hills, and lack a safety net)

International council for local environmental initiatives (ICLEI)

Help govs formulate and implement plans to reduce GHG

Disease

Humans can spread disease to animals leading to biodiversity loss

Existence value

I don't have grandkids and I am not going to go to the grand canyon, but I still think it should have the right to exist. How much am I willing to pay for the grand canyon to exist even though I will never go and my grandchildren will never go

Bequest value

I will never get to go to the grand canyon, but i want my grandchildren to have the option to go. How much are you willing to pay so that your grandchildren are able to go to the grand canyon in the future (value of knowing you are leaving behind environmental quality for future generations)

genetic variability in agriculture

In agriculture, genetic variability/ Diversity provides a pool from which to discover high yielding varieties -Green revolution inc in grain yields helped keep for production in line w pop increases -Genetic variability is important for our ability to harvest crops

Community-based approaches

Local (primary cities), States, Regional, international (kyoto protocol, paris, UNFCC)

co-benefits example (ON FINAL)

May be in the interest of california to mitigate climate change (that creates global benefits) to prevents forest fires in california

Local gov initiatives

Most of the pop lives in urban areas so city-based efforts to reduce GHG can make a big difference

methane main sources

Natural gas and petroleum systems, fermentation

How does biodiversity contribute to productivity?

Natural systems with more biodiversity are on average more productive than those that have less (greater functioning leads to greater productivity) -In natural systems, the productivity comes from a diverse mix of species, and in agriculture, it comes from genetic variability

Option value: our future or possible use

Option to go to the grand canyon even though I've never gone (you don't know how much gas it took or entry cost) you want to go so how much are you willing to pay to go on a grand canyon vacation (thats the option value) the value we place on a future possible use

Over-harvest (largest cause for marine life)

Overfishing, tusks from elephants, passenger pigeon used to be the most abundant bird species and now they are extinct

natural factors

environment and natural resource base (live closer to wetlands you're more vulnerable to flooding or hillside you are more vulnerable to mudslides)

State level

States have explicit GHG reduction targets, have GHG action plans, and more have GHG inventories (used to implement plans)

What kind of commodity is biodiversity?

subtractible and excludible

Climatological

such as drought and extreme temps

Meteorological

such as tropical cyclones and storms

Are humans causing the next mass extinction?

There is a correlation between when humans arrived on continents and extinction of mammals and climate shift

Why is biodiversity important from an economic perspective?

We are interested in understanding what contributes, in economic terms, to human societies

Sub-species

a phenotypically similar species inhabiting a specific area that differs from other pops of that species

Population

a pop is all the organisms of the same species, which live in a particular geographical area, and have the capability of interbreeding

climate change

a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period

Biodiversity

a variety of life across all levels of organizations Taxonomic levels Ecological levels Genetic diversity pop diversity Sub-species (same species in diff areas are slightly different- subspecies) Species Communities (species interacting w each other in same place) Ecosystems (community + physical environment)

Increase adaptive capacity

actions that improve the community's ability to manage negative impacts/ seize opportunities

Reduce sensitivity

actions that make ppl or livelihoods less sensitive to hazard impacts

what do we do about the consequences and impacts of climate change?

adaptation and mitigation -Need both adaptation and mitigation simultaneously

CAFE benefits

addresses fuel use which is most of US oil consumption

endangered species

any species which is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range

threatened species

any species which is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range

open-ended questions

ask responses for max WTP

closed-ended questions

ask whether they are WTP a certain amount

bidding games questions

ask whether they are WTP a certain amt. If they say yes, ask them about higher amount until you find the highest amt WTP

downstream

at the point of emissions (power plants and large-scale industrial furnaces , cars, homes)

Ecosystem

biological community of interacting organisms and their physical environment

What kinds of policy instruments: incentive-based approach

cap and trade taxes

capacity

capacity to be able to adapt and manage negative impacts

acclimation

change in response to a single variable

acclimization

change in response to multiple physical variables

Supporting services

consistency of underlying natural processes which enable the existence of ecosystems

cap and trade con

cost uncertainty, Manipulation and political rent-seeking (gov allocates certain sums of money)

degree

degree of exposure to climate impacts

CO2 main sources

electricity, transportation, industry

cap and trade pro

emissions are controlled directly, market determine the appropriate price

financial factors

financial resources, including available stocks and flows of money (more money = can buy your way out of things to make you less vulnerable)

survey instrument bias

form or tone of survey question can bias response (would spend more money to endure children receive education)

social factors

formal and informal networks and relationships (friends/ network can help you and make you less vulnerable), as well as cultural rules and norms

critical habitat

geographic areas that contain the physical or biological features that are essential to the conservation of the species and may need special management or protection

political factors

governance, policies, and power structures (policies can make you more or less vulnerable)

Greenhouse gasses

greenhouse gases allow sunlight to enter the atmosphere freely. When sunlight strikes the earth's surface, some of it is re-radiated back towards space as infrared radiation (heat). Greenhouse gases absorb this infrared radiation and trap the heat in the atmosphere (energy out)

Community diversity

groups of interacting species, whether through predation, competition, or mutualism -shown through food web

vulnerability

has many dimensions; human, social, financial, natural, politician. Generally, it's a function of the degree, sensitivity, capacity

Global warming potential

how much energy the emission of 1 ton of gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the emission of 1 ton of CO2 (tells which gas will have the strongest effect)

emission reductions

in which we tackle the GHG problem (how to reduce emissions)

geoengineering

in which we use tech to offset the effects of GHG emissions (don't reduce GHG, we create tech to reduce effects of GHG)

Biological

inc incidence of infectious disease

disaster risk

inc when a hazard is more likely to occur and/or has more negative consequences. A community is more vulnerable when disaster risk is greater (fire season)

Hydrological

including flooding, sea lvl rise, and salinization

physical factors

infrastructure (poorly maintained or poorly made), tools, equipment (can't leave bc car doesn't work)

Climate change and biodiversity loss

is a cause of biodiversity loss in the future

cost-benefit analysis

is the decision making framework into which we are plugging in these values (costs and benefit values)

mitigation

is the effort to limit the magnitude of climate change itself, through 2 mechanisms (try to limit climate change) -emission reductions -geoengineering

Provisioning services

material or energy outputs of ecosystems; any type of benefit ppl can extract from nature

positive feedback

melt ice, more water, absorbs more energy, temp inc, melt more ice

cultural services

non-material benefits of ecosystems that contribute to the development and cultural advancement of people

upstream

on fossil fuel producers (e.g., at the entrance to the mine or the wellhead)

protect

prohibit "take"m designate "critical habitat" when "prudent and determinable"

Probs with CPR

race to extract

information bias

respondents are forced to value attributed with which they have little or no experience (will provide ill-considered responses)

strategic bias

respondents provide a biased answer in order to influence a particular outcome (want forest protected so they are willing to pay sooo much money)

recover

restore a species to ecological health, goal is that no longer need protection under the ESA

regulating services

role of ecosystems in mediating/ moderating natural phenomena

sensitivity

sensitivity to those impacts (pregnant mothers, young children, old ppl are more sensitive)

human factors

skills, knowledge, health, and labor- Education affects the choices you make (more education= less vulnerable (buy masks for bad air quality)), old ppl have difficulty to move so they are more likely to be exposed to negative effects

Adaptation

the effort to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts, while not necessarily dealing w underlying causes of the impacts (try to make our lives better in the conditions)

greenhouse gasses and temp

there is a correlation

future greenhouse gas emissions predictions

through models

take

to harass, harm (kill or injure), pursue, hunt, shoot, trap, collect