Geography - Population

3❤️🌸. Assess the usefulness of the demographic transition model (DTM) for understanding population change.

A diagram is not required but would be very helpful. The syllabus specifies 'a critical appreciation of the demographic transition model'. Criticised for being Eurocentric (being based on the historical experience of a few European countries) and unreal (no countries in Stage 1, the need for the addition of a Stage 5), it retains some value. It is, however, descriptive of change rather than explanatory. Possible usefulness comes from the visual representation of changes in birth rate and death rate, and thus natural increase rate, over time and from indicating what happens next in population transition. It may be seen as least useful where change is rapid and Stages 2 and 3 occur almost simultaneously; in countries where strong government policies impact birth rates, or where it does not fit a country's statistics and path. Response provides an effective and conceptually strong assessment of the DTM's usefulness and limitations for understanding population change. It integrates detailed exemplar material.

1🌸. Outline two reasons why optimum population is difficult to achieve.

A number of approaches may be taken: • about the number of people, e.g. dynamism, migration, counting • about the available resources, e.g. innovation, finding new mineral resources, technological changes, e.g. agricultural technology • because it is a theoretical concept not well-suited to 21st century reality Credit a simple point 1 mark and a developed or detailed point 2 marks to the maximum.

1❤️☘️ Suggest two reasons why the population structure in many countries is ageing.

A number of reasons - 1 mark per valid reason with extra mark for development. These could include: • Lower death rate so people live longer due to improved medical care, better diet, greater social services, fewer wars and disease • Lower birth rates so fewer young people due to greater use of birth control, increased education, greater female autonomy, fewer younger people • Migration of either young or old. Countries (LEDCs) started at a much lower rate but could apply immediately improvements in health etc. created in MEDCs - an effect of globalisation.

2🌸. Explain briefly why fertility rates remain high in some countries.

A number of reasons combine to explain why fertility rates remain high. These may be expressed positively or negatively (but avoid double credit). Possible reasons include: • traditional or conservative mindsets and attitudes • strong cultural or religious influences • resistance to change • need for large families (e.g. labour, security in old age) • high infant mortality rate (IMR) and child mortality • lack of, lack of access to, or prohibitive costs of contraception • lack of government investment in family planning/other priorities • lack of female education • government policy A full response consists of three or more reasons, developed and explained with some use of an example or examples. 1 mark for a simple point, 2 marks for a developed point with either detail or the use of an example.

3💜☘️. Describe the links between economic development and changes in infant mortality rate.

As economic development increases infant mortality falls. The cause-effect links include: • greater wealth to invest in health care - pre and post birth, more medicines etc. • higher female education so mothers more aware of best approaches to child care • improved diets - less malnutrition • better housing - improved sanitation, water supply etc. • fewer epidemics, pests etc. • improved transport - healthcare etc. can reach remote areas Point mark such that 3 valid points with development (detail, use of data) can achieve the maximum. There is no explanation required/expected.

2❤️🌸. Give two reasons why average life expectancy statistics for a country may be misleading.

Averages hide variation within a country by gender (male/female); variation between states, regions or counties; and variation between rural and urban areas. Average figures might also be distorted by extremely high infant mortality. Figures could also be distorted by major catastrophes. The idea that collection of the data is difficult can also be credited. Credit each limitation 1 mark to maximum.

1💜🌸 Compare the meaning of the terms birth rate and fertility rate.

Both are statistical measures of fertility. Birth rate is the number of live births per thousand people in one year. It can be expressed either per 1000 or as a percentage (%). 3 marks Whereas fertility rate is the average number of children each woman of child-bearing age (usually 15 to 50 years) in a population will bear. (A fertility rate of 2.1 is known as replacement level.) 4 marks

2🌸. With the help of one or more examples, explain some of the issues associated with a youthful population.

Candidates are expected to use one or more examples in detail to support and/or develop the explanation. The word 'some' indicates that comprehensive responses are not required. A number of issues associated with a youthful population may be developed, including: • high youth dependency on the economically active/burden • overpopulation (imbalance in population/resource relationship) • pressure to meet their aspirations - unemployment • needs of the young, e.g. for healthcare, education • youth delinquency and crime through boredom, unmet needs, etc. • need for/introduction of anti-natal policy • challenge to government to harness the creativity and energy of the young in developing the country Some may adopt the demographic, social, economic, environmental and political issues approach. Response explains two or more issues associated with a youthful population in a clear and focussed manner. Response is well-founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. The example(s) used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

1💜🌸 Evaluate the usefulness of the demographic transition model (DTM) in understanding changes in the birth rate over time.

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever approach is chosen, essays which address the question and support their argument with relevant examples will be credited. There may be detailed consideration of a case study/one or more examples, or a broadly conceived response, drawing on several examples to illustrate the factors involved. A labelled or annotated diagram of the demographic transition model is not required but may be offered and credited in contributing to the overall quality of the essay. The DTM is descriptive, showing on a graph the expected changes in the birth rate (and the death rate, which is not relevant here). It can help to understand what happens to the birth rate over time (Stages 1-5), and when it happens, but not why the changes occur. For that explanation, a complex of dynamic and interactive factors (social, economic, environmental and political) is needed. Candidates may explore these factors in relation to understanding one or more changes in the birth rate. Candidates may write about the DTM being Eurocentric and historically based and less useful for LICs/MICs or countries with a strong population policy operative, which England did not have. There may be comments on timescale and speed of transition, for example, in relation to the transfer of technologies from HICs to LICs. Response thoroughly discusses the usefulness of the DTM in understanding changes in the birth rate over time in a clear and well developed evaluation.

2💜🌸 To what extent was natural increase changed by the population policy you outlined in (b)?

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever approach is chosen, essays which address the question and support their argument with relevant examples will be credited. There may be detailed consideration of a case study/one or more examples, or a broadly conceived response, drawing on several examples to illustrate the factors involved. Whichever is chosen, essays which evaluate the population policy's relative success in changing natural increase will be credited. Success may be differentiated spatially (e.g. by region, rural/urban), between groups of people and over time (e.g. significant change initially, dwindling later). Failure may be assessed and commented on creditably. Observations may include: • data of natural increase rates • estimates of numbers removed or added to total population • spatial variation • temporal variation • socio-cultural or socio-economic variation • policy aims and targets met/unmet Response thoroughly discusses the extent to which the chosen population policy changed natural increase in a clear and well developed evaluation. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

1☘️. 'The concept of carrying capacity is irrelevant in the modern technological age.' With the aid of examples, to what extent do you agree?

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever route is chosen, essays which assess and support their argument with relevant examples will be credited. There may be detailed consideration of one or more examples or a broadly conceived response, drawing on several examples to illustrate the factors involved. Carrying capacity is stated in the syllabus, so candidates are expected to have a clear appreciation of its meaning: The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water, and other necessities available in the environment. Some may apply the Malthus and Boserup approaches to the issue. Those supporting the Malthusian view would disagree whilst those supporting Boserup would agree. Technology can alter the carrying capacity but only up to a point when declining marginal returns set in. Higher level responses may recognise that it may vary with location, levels of technology, nature of the population. Response thoroughly assesses the extent to which carrying capacity is still valid in the modern technological age with some recognition it may vary over time and space (scale). Response has good contextual understanding of the nature of carrying capacity. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

2🌸. With the aid of examples, assess the extent to which a person's age affects how likely they are to migrate.

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever route is chosen, essays which assess the influence of a person's age on how likely they are to migrate and support their assessment with relevant examples will be credited. Age is one factor which affects migration amongst others such as gender, perception, opportunity, etc. Forced (involuntary) migration may be included on which age has little or no influence. Candidates may consider the observed 'norms' of age and migration: • young adults migrate the most (fewer ties, greater ambition, etc.) • many adults of working age migrate (economic migration) • infants and children only migrate with their parents • the elderly are less likely to migrate than other adults, but do move on retirement, to be nearer to family, into special accommodation, etc. Some may link the extent to the level of push v pull, inertia, cost, knowledge and availability of transport. Migration can be international or internal. Response considers the effect of age on migration in relation to other factors and influences in a clear and well-developed assessment. Response integrates relevant examples effectively. Response is well-founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

2💜☘️. 'Countries are challenged more by underpopulation than by overpopulation.' With the aid of examples, how far do you agree?

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever route is chosen, essays which discuss the extent to which countries are challenged more by underpopulation than by overpopulation and support their argument with relevant examples will be credited. There may be detailed consideration of one or more examples, or a broadly conceived response, drawing on several examples to illustrate the factors involved. Candidates need to demonstrate an understanding of the two terms where population is seen in relation to resources. Challenges can be seen as environmental, economic, social and political. Many LICs are suffering overpopulation whilst some countries have insufficient population to fully exploit their resources, e.g. Australia. It could be argued that overpopulation is a stimulus rather than a challenge, but most candidates will probably disagree and see overpopulation as very much a challenge for less affluent countries. Others may link it to government policies. Candidates at higher levels should recognise that the truth of this statement may vary over space, time and with scale and cultural/political variations. Response thoroughly evaluates the extent to which underpopulation is more of a challenge than overpopulation. Response has good contextual understanding of the nature of constraints. Response makes clear links between a range of constraints and the sustaining of population. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

3💜☘️. With the aid of one or more examples, assess the extent to which decreasing death rates are causing overpopulation.

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever route is chosen, essays which discuss the extent to which decreasing death rates are causing overpopulation and support their argument with relevant examples will be credited. There may be detailed consideration of one or more examples, or a broadly conceived response, drawing on several examples to illustrate the factors involved. Overpopulation is the result of population exceeding resources, so there are two sides to this evaluation: • population increase - as death rates fall, but what about birth rates which are also falling? • resource supply - the nature of resources and their supply • candidates could bring in the ideas of Malthus and/or Boserup • is this true for the whole world or does it vary between and within countries and over time/scale? Response thoroughly discusses the extent to which a fall in death rates is causing overpopulation. Response has good contextual understanding of the global dimension. Response recognises that it is not a simple relationship as both population and resources are dynamic. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

1💜☘️ For the country chosen in (b), evaluate the success of the population policy.

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever route is chosen, essays which discuss the success of the population policy and support their argument with relevant examples will be credited. There may be detailed consideration of a case study, or a broadly conceived response, drawing on several examples to illustrate the factors involved. The syllabus states the case study should include attempts to alter the natural increase rate and to manage the results of population change. Candidates should recognise that any policy will vary in its success relative to the following: • the groups it affects - differentiation/discrimination • regions or areas it impacts on - scale • changes over time • demographic vs economic vs socio-cultural vs political viewpoints • costs (cost-benefit analysis) Response thoroughly evaluates the extent to which the policy has been successful. Response has good contextual understanding of the costs and benefits of such a policy. Response makes clear links between policy and natural increase rate and resulting population change. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

2☘️ 'Natural hazards are the greatest constraint to sustaining population.' With the aid of examples, to what extent do you agree with this statement?

Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever route is chosen, responses which assess and support their argument with relevant examples will be credited. There may be detailed consideration of one or more examples or a broadly conceived response, drawing on several examples to illustrate the factors involved. The syllabus refers to the constraints of, for example, war and climatic hazards. This gives the minimum debate but most candidates will consider a wider range of natural hazards such as: • Earthquakes and volcanoes • Floods • Disease and pests • Fires Other constraints should go beyond war to consider factors such as: the size and nature of the population, natural resources, capital and wealth, technology such as transport, and the very nature of the environment and farming systems used. Response thoroughly assesses the extent to which natural hazards are the greatest constraint to sustaining population. Response has good contextual understanding of the nature of sustainability. Response makes clear links between range of constraints and sustainability. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

1🌸. With the help of examples, explain the causes of food shortages.

Candidates may set the response in an exemplar context of overpopulation and an imbalance in the population-resource relationship. Other contexts may be taken, such as in the case of war or conflict, or when climatic hazards or issues of food distribution intervene to cause food shortages. The explanation is likely to combine reasons for food shortages in different dimensions (demographic, economic, social/cultural, environmental, political) depending on the examples selected. Explanations include: low investment/lack of technology; soil exhaustion; population increase; transport difficulties; poor economic management; natural disasters (e.g. floods, cyclones); pests, crop diseases. Response explains causes of food shortages thoroughly in a clear and focussed manner. Response is well-founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. The examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

1💜🌸 With the aid of examples, explain why fertility rates are very low in some countries.

Candidates should use examples to help explain why fertility rates are very low. The examples may be locations, activities, people groups, data, • demographic, e.g. stable low birth rate • economic, e.g. women's career goals, cheap contraception • social, e.g. education, social norms, attitudes, e.g. children as a burden • political, e.g. success of anti-natal policy, investment in education and healthcare Response explains thoroughly why fertility rates are very low in some countries in a clear and focussed manner. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. Any examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

1🌸. 'The consequences of food shortage are always negative.' With the aid of one or more examples, how far do you agree?

Candidates study 'consequences of food shortages'. Candidates are free to develop their own approach to the question and responses will vary depending on the approach chosen. Whichever route is chosen, essays which assess the effects of food shortage in terms of negative consequences and positive consequences and support their assessment with relevant examples will be credited. Candidates may assess consequences in a number of dimensions, for example, negative demographic consequences include hunger, malnutrition, starvation, death and outmigration. Positive economic consequences may include innovation and a better road system. Environmental consequences include degradation (negative) and investment in irrigation (possible both positive and negative). Response considers the consequences of food shortage, both negative and positive, in a clear and well-developed assessment. Response integrates relevant examples effectively. Response is well-founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

3❤️☘️. 'Controlling natural increase is the best way to manage population change.' To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Clearly this is only one way. Attempts have been made to reduce natural increase via anti-birth policies but few have succeeded. More common are tight controls on migration which can be successful. Alternatives could include economic development such as growth based on resource exploitation or tourism, education especially of females. Population change could be in size, location or structure e.g. age or ethnicity. Higher level responses may question 'manage population change' by looking at types of management (direct and indirect, voluntary and forced) as well as examine what is included in population change - only a limited range (age and number) can be influenced by controls on natural increase. Make a response from detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding. Have clear cause and effect link between control of natural increase (and other strategies of management) and population change. Provide an effective assessment. Use one or more examples in detail.

2❤️☘️. With the help of one or more examples, explain the main consequences of food shortages.

Consequences could include: • Environmental - deforestation etc. in order to plant more food crops, soil erosion, destruction of wildlife (as food) • Demographic - higher death rates, disease, outmigration • Economic - weaker work force, high cost of importing food, increased cost of food • Social - unrest (food riots), inequalities exposed (wealthy can afford food) • Political - revolution, civil war There could be some positives such as land reform, introduction of new technology etc. If no example, max. 5 marks.

3❤️☘️. Explain why life expectancy is increasing faster in many LEDCs than it is in MEDCs.

Either two developed comparative reasons for full marks or four less developed points. Reasons could include: • LEDCs start from a lower life expectancy - MEDCs are on the flatter bit of the graph • Greater application of new medicines, treatments and medical technology in LEDCs which previously lacked them unlike MEDCs • Less famines, wars, as stronger political control or more international aid • Improvements in transport, housing and sanitation that MEDCs already have • MEDCs developing 'bad habits' e.g. drugs, obesity that slows or reduces life expectancy

3❤️🌸. Explain how increasing education for girls and women helps to lower fertility.

Female education impacts TFR, lowering it in a number of ways, including: • empowering girls and women to make decisions about and changes to their lives • delaying marriage and reducing the fertile period by years spent in secondary and tertiary education • changing aspirations and goals, from family to career + family or to career (growing number of single women without children) • learning how to control their own fertility, e.g. through contraception • learning about the economic cost of having children and may choose to spend their income in other ways, e.g. lifestyle, travel • educated mothers want educated daughters and the trend continues Comprehensive explanations are not expected: a full answer could consist of two well developed points. Examples may be used but are not required.

1❤️🌸. 'Human factors are the main causes of food shortages.' How far do you agree?

Food shortages are caused by a combination of factors, both human and environmental/physical. Candidates should explain how food shortages are caused, such as by the failure of a harvest (environmental), because of a hazardous event (environmental), during conflict (human, political and/or economic), or when distribution systems fail (human) and offer an overall judgement. Judgement will vary with the example(s) and circumstances chosen. Response provides an effective and conceptually strong assessment of how food shortages are caused, addressing human factors and other factors clearly. It integrates detailed exemplar material.

2❤️☘️. Describe the main causes of food shortages.

Food shortages may be caused by: • Environmental problems such as floods, frost, droughts, volcanic eruptions, poor soils, pests such as locusts etc. • Demographic problems such as increased population due to high birth rate or high migration (either in or out). • Economic problems such as poor farming techniques, lack of transport, lack of capital, poor storage and processing, crop failure in areas food imported from • Political problems such as war, poor infrastructure, inadequate / corrupt government. 3 causes well developed could gain full marks. Simple list - max. 4 marks.

1❤️☘️. Suggest two differences between the population structure of LEDCs and MEDCs.

If candidates use the syllabus approach then these could include: • LEDCs have younger / less aged population • MEDCs tend to be more balanced in gender whereas LEDCs often have more males (or more females if males migrated to find work) • Dependency ratio; MEDCs due to aging population and LEDCs because of young dependents 2 differences = 2 marks but with development then 2x2. The 'other constituents' are more difficult to compare beyond the basic level such as poor v rich so are more likely to be 2x1 mark.

1💜☘️ Suggest why, as a country develops, its people's calorie consumption tends to increase.

Indicative content: • higher incomes so can afford more/better food or cheaper food • improvement in food production/farming techniques • improved transport so better distribution of food/imports • development of wholesaling and retailing - greater range of foods • increased consumption of meat - status symbol • more high calorie junk food consumed (Western culture/diet)

3💜☘️. Suggest why both low calorie consumption and high calorie consumption can have harmful consequences.

Indicative content: • low levels result in malnutrition and associated illness or deficiency diseases, e.g. beriberi • low levels mean little energy so inducing apathy and lethargy • ultimately low levels cause starvation • high levels lead to obesity and associated illness, e.g. diabetes • high levels are high in fats which lead to heart disease and cancer 1 mark per reason or 2 marks if some development. Allow 3/2 or 2/3 split.

2💜☘️. Describe two consequences of overpopulation.

Indicative content: • starvation, hunger, disease and death • migration to find food/movement to cities • poverty and unemployment • social unrest/conflict over limited food/resource supply • increased farming - intensification or extensification • food imports/international aid/government aid • lack of services - water, power, education • food price rises/rationing • overcrowding; lack of housing • pollution; pressure on environment 1 mark per consequence + 1 mark if some development. There is no requirement or expectation to explain, but allow as development.

2💜☘️ Suggest two reasons why there may be a limit to the increase in calorie consumption.

Indicative content: • there is a limit to how much food you can eat • food production problems - farming, transport, storage, processing • diseases, etc. increase with higher kcal consumption - heart disease, obesity • only so much food can be produced by the planet (may mention climate change) • population increase will absorb food output, so limiting kcal consumption • increasing cost of foodstuffs • awareness of healthy lifestyle • war • government planning/rationing 1 mark per simple reason or 2+ marks if some development.

3💜☘️. With the aid of one or more examples, outline the issues caused by a youthful population.

Issues such as: • demographic e.g. high birth rate • economic e.g. high cost of providing education, insufficient jobs, high dependency ratio • social e.g. unrest, shortage of housing • cultural e.g. friction with older more traditional elements • political e.g. protest groups, agitation Response clearly outlines in detail the nature of the issues caused by a youthful population. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. Any examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

2❤️🌸. Suggest reasons why life expectancy is increasing in many countries.

Life expectancy is increasing and is predicted to increase for the world and for India for a combination of reasons, including: • positive change linked to development • improving wellbeing a policy priority • better health care at all stages of life, e.g. immunisation, access to clinics and hospitals, detection of disease, new treatments for lifethreatening illnesses • improvement in literacy and education, people know how to take care of themselves • better diet and nutrition • better access to safe drinking water • better living conditions, e.g. sanitation systems • increased safety at work and at home (fewer accidents) • initiatives to improve maternal mortality, infant mortality (under 1 year) and child mortality (under 5 years) • attention to health and fitness in MEDCs Credit a simple reason 1 mark and a developed reason or one supported by an example 2 marks to the maximum.

2💜🌸 Describe the variation in natural increase rate in Stages 1-5 of the demographic transition model (DTM).

Low fluctuating NIR in Stage 1. NIR increases through Stage 2 (greatest at the end). NIR decreases through Stage 3. Low fluctuating NIR in Stage 4. Negative NIR in Stage 5.

3❤️☘️. Outline the main characteristics of the population in Stage 3 of the demographic transition model (DTM).

Many may annotate a DTM diagram, but this is not required. Characteristics (1×3) could include: • Birth rate is falling • Death rate is low or still falling but at slow rate • Population growth is rapid at first then slows

1❤️☘️. Explain why population structure changes as countries develop.

Many may see this as applying the DTM (to explain age and dependency) which is a valid approach but it is not required. Better answers will clearly link the explanation to some aspects of the population structure as a result of economic development. Explanation could include: • Greater resources to support health care, education, birth control, housing and sanitation • Improved transport - less famine, more mobile population • Greater technology - impact on employment opportunities • Change in economy from mainly primary (male workers) to tertiary (female) • Greater level of international migration

3❤️☘️. Explain why the DTM does not apply well to many LEDCs.

Mark on range and depth of explanation. Reasons could include: • Based on western Europe's historical trends • Doesn't even fit all of western Europe's trends • Death rate fallen more rapidly as advances in health and technology transferred to LEDCs • Many LEDCs starting from higher birth rates than Europe did • It ignores impact of migration • Very different cultural conditions e.g. religion • Death rate and birth rate may not be linked • Ignores disasters such as wars, famines etc. that distort trends

1❤️🌸 Suggest reasons why the percentage population aged below 15 years in LEDCs is decreasing.

Most LEDCs are predicted to have an ageing population. This means that the average age is predicted to increase, meaning greater percentages of the adult group (15-59 years of age, or similar) and the elderly/aged group (60 or 65 years and older), for example as shown in Fig. 3B. This ageing results from a combination of two things; a decrease in the birth rate (or total fertility rate) and an increase in life expectancy (or decrease in the death rate). This is sufficient for a full response. Candidates are not expected to give 'the reasons for the reasons', such as increased use of contraception (birth rate) or improved diet (life expectancy).

3❤️🌸. Give the meaning of the term natural increase and explain how a natural increase rate is calculated.

Natural increase is the change in population/number of people without the influence of migration (gains and losses). It may be positive or negative - a negative rate of natural increase is sometimes referred to as 'natural decrease'. Formula: birth rate - death rate = natural increase rate per thousand or percentage e.g. 22 - 9 = 13 per thousand or 1.3% Credit details as to how birth rate and death rate are calculated 3/4, 4/3

1❤️🌸 Explain why optimum population is difficult to achieve.

Optimum population is difficult to achieve for a combination of reasons, including: • it is a theoretical position or state - a graph may be drawn and should be credited • population is dynamic and always changing (by natural increase and migration) • resources are dynamic, e.g. discovery of new minerals, impact of a hazardous event on crop production • technology is dynamic, e.g. agricultural technology • people are individuals and make their own decisions, even where policies exist, e.g. population policy A full response combines reasons and examples and convinces by its conceptual rigour and sense of demographic reality.

1🌸. Give the meaning of the term optimum population.

Optimum population is: • where there are the right number of people (1) to make full use of the available resources (1) to achieve the highest standard of living for all (1) • the population that an area can support sustainably (1) while enabling all (1) to have a good quality of life(1)

1☘️. Describe how food shortages occur.

Point mark with 1 per point or 2 if point developed to the max of 7. There are numerous reasons why food shortages occur including: • Natural disasters - floods, droughts, disease, pests, etc. destroy crops and livestock • Poor farming practices, e.g. overgrazing leading to soil erosion, excessive focus on export, non-food crops • Excessive population growth, e.g. sudden influx of migrants • Poor storage or processing of food • Lack of transport to transfer food to areas of need • Growing export/non-food crops rather than food crops • Social disruption, e.g. war

2❤️🌸. With the help of a labelled diagram, explain the term population structure.

Population structure is the make-up of a population, at any scale, comprising its component groups. The key elements are age, gender and dependency. The classic diagram of population structure is an age/sex pyramid. The diagram should show x axis labelled population (either percentage or numbers), males to the left and females to the right; with age in years or age groups on the y axis, either on the central spine or to one side. A population shape should be drawn on the axes. A full diagram shows the three age cohorts: youth, economically adult, and aged, by horizontal lines at ages 15 and 65 classically, and/or by shading. For an explanation without the diagram, maximum 4 marks.

3💜🌸 Explain two effects of high infant mortality rates

Possible answers include: • high birth rates/continuing high birth rates given the need to ensure the survival of some children by compensating for infant deaths • high fertility rate • accept government intervention (policy or initiative) to reduce infant mortality rates, e.g. by immunisation • emotional/psychological impact of infant deaths on the family

1❤️🌸. Outline two issues associated with overpopulation.

Possible issues include: • social, e.g. overcrowding, hunger, falling standard of living, emigration and out-migration, constrained access to key services, e.g. schooling • economic, e.g. unemployment, underemployment, poverty, personal debt, national debt • physical/environmental, e.g. landlessness, congestion of people and traffic, environmental degradation • political, e.g. disputes, conflict, inadequate governance Credit each issue with a clear link to overpopulation, 2 marks. Examples may be used but are not required for full marks.

2❤️☘️. Explain why life expectancy increases as an area develops economically.

Reasons could include: • More resources available to raise standard of living • Greater application of new medicines, treatments and medical technology • Less famines etc. as stronger political control or more international aid • Improvements in transport, housing, sanitation, education • Resources for pensions and social security • Lower infant mortality • Females gain in education, health care etc. • Change in work patterns e.g. manual to non-manual (primary to secondary / tertiary) Two reasons with good cause / effect on life expectancy can gain full marks. A list of three or more reasons, max. 4 marks.

3💜🌸 State three causes of high infant mortality rates.

Relevant causes include: • social, e.g. lack of maternal education, traditional births, poor maternal diets • economic, e.g. impacts of poverty on pregnant and nursing mothers, poor living conditions, cost of doctor/medicines • environmental, e.g. extreme heat, drought, pollution • political, e.g. impact of conflict on those vulnerable < 1 year

1🌸. Outline two factors which help to explain why fertility rates are decreasing in many countries.

Relevant factors include: • demographic, e.g. fall in infant mortality rate reduces need for children, access to contraception • social/cultural, e.g. increasing literacy / education, modernisation • economic, e.g. increasing cost of raising a child, financial incentives linked to anti-natalist population policy • environmental, e.g. improving food supply increases child survival • political, e.g. anti-natalist population policy, government's plans Credit two factors, a simple point 1 mark and a developed and/or illustrated point, 2 marks to the maximum. If more than two factors are outlined, credit the best two. The two factors may both be derived from the same dimension (demographic, social/cultural, economic, environmental or political) as long as the factors are different.

3💜🌸 Give two socio-economic reasons why the proportion of the youthful population is decreasing in many MICs.

Relevant socio-economic reasons include: • economic development influencing personal goals • increased costs of raising children • increased literacy and education of girls and women • increased availability, accessibility and affordability of contraception • emigration of young working age to other countries

2☘️. Explain the concept of food security.

The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as existing 'when all people (1) at all times have access to sufficient (1), safe (1), nutritious food (1) to maintain a healthy and active life.' (1) Equally, credit other versions that stress sufficient, safe, nutritious and linked to healthy life.

3💜🌸. 'Food shortages can always be overcome.' With the aid of examples, how far do you agree?

The causes of food shortages may be explored to determine what can be overcome and what cannot (in some circumstances or generally). For example, better distribution of food (the Marxian argument) may be achievable in many places. However, extreme weather, hazardous events, conflict, instability and the sheer number of mouths to feed may make food shortages continue. Candidates may use examples of food shortages, malnutrition, hunger and famine to support and progress the assessment. Response thoroughly discusses the extent of agreement with the view that food shortages can always be overcome in a clear and well developed evaluation. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic.

3❤️☘️. Suggest two reasons for the level of the death rate in Stage 3 of the DTM.

The death rate is falling to a low level. 2 reasons with development can gain full marks (2×2) as can a basic list (4×1) of relevant reasons such as: • Better diets • Greater control of disease • More public health e.g. sanitation • Better housing • Higher incomes • Greater social security e.g. pensions • Improved transport - can spread improvements Do not double penalise if 10(a)(i) incorrect but reasons given correctly for it in this part then credit as above.

2❤️🌸 To what extent does reducing the birth rate depend on improving education?

The direction of the assessment will depend on the example(s) taken. In terms of Stage 3 in the demographic transition, improving education is only one factor amongst many which may lead to the reduction in birth rate. Other factors would be access to family planning, the affordability of contraception, development/modernisation, government promotion and/or incentives, etc. Education may be significant for a number of reasons: • challenging and breaking traditional mindsets and attitudes, e.g. to family size • empowering women, e.g. delaying marriage, employment, new goals • giving a better understanding of reproductive biology • enabling educated women to teach and influence girls and women An assessment may be of success for other reasons, such as China's 'one child' policy where a combination of government enforcement and incentives (combined with other forces already reducing fertility) reduced the birth rate significantly. Response provides an effective assessment of the role of improving education in reducing the birth rate, well supported from the chosen example(s). Assesses the role of other factors or constraints perceptively. Relevant evaluation is needed

3💜🌸 With the aid of one or more examples, explain why the death rate falls in Stage 2 of the demographic transition model (DTM).

The examples are likely to be locations, but could be initiatives and activities The explanation may draw on the following types of factors: • social, e.g. education, community initiatives, modernisation changing traditional practices, safer working • economic, e.g. investment in food production, sanitation, building better houses, healthcare • environmental, e.g. reduced pollution, clean water supply • political, e.g. development policy, overseas aid Response explains thoroughly why the death rate falls in Stage 2 of the DTM in a clear and focussed manner. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. Any examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

2❤️☘️. 'Innovation is the solution to food shortages.' To what extent do you agree?

The highest level answers will go beyond innovation in farming to consider improvement in transport, processing, better storage etc. Other ways such as opening up new areas should be considered. Many will see this as the introduction of new farming techniques as in the Green Revolution or genetically modified crops. These tend to increase yields whereas an alternative approach could be to extensify by opening up new areas as food sources. Innovation will increase food production but the laws of diminishing marginal returns may limit it and so is it the main way? Candidates should appreciate that it may vary over time, with location, the type of food and resources available. The role of aid organisations could also be considered. Also relevant would be factors influencing demand rather than supply. Make a response from detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding. Have clear cause and effect link between a range of types of innovation and food production. Other ways should be appreciated. Provide an effective assessment. Use one or more examples in detail.

2🌸. Outline what is meant by the term youthful population

The key idea is that the age group 0 to 14, under 15 or the young, (1 mark) dominates the population/is disproportionate (1 mark) compared to the other two age groups (adults/working and aged) (1 mark). A diagram is not required, but all marks could be obtained through a labelled age/sex structure diagram. It should be 'bottom-heavy', progressive and triangular in shape with the three age cohorts marked.

2💜🌸 For one country, outline the need for, and the main elements of, its population policy regarding natural increase.

The need for the policy is likely to be because of the government's perception that change was needed, e.g. anti-natal, China, Singapore, or pro-natal, e.g. France, Singapore. The main element of the policy could be 'stick and carrot', relates to males and females, and involves schemes, initiatives and promotion. Response outlines the need for, and the main elements of, the chosen country's population policy in a clear and focussed manner. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. Any examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

1❤️☘️. Outline the main components of population structure.

The syllabus refers to age / gender / dependency as the three main aspects = 2 marks with extra mark for development. Accept other valid constituents such as ethnicity, socio-economic group, marital status, income, education.

2💜☘️. Explain the role of constraints in relation to sustaining population.

The syllabus refers to constraints in relation to sustaining population as exemplified by war and climatic hazards. Constraints on sustaining population, in numbers and/or quality of life, could be physical: climate, soil quality, water supply and the impact of natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones, fires, disease, pests, etc. Alternatively they could be economic such as trade barriers, capital, transport, technology, or social such as population numbers, education, or even political. The question is about their roles in relation to sustaining population (in number, in quality of life, etc.). Indicative content: • acting as a limit on population numbers by increasing death rates especially among very young and very old • reducing overpopulation to a sustainable level • reducing standards of living • causing migration to other more sustainable areas • encouraging the development of methods and technology to overcome these constraints • population control • migration control Response clearly explains in detail the roles of constraints in sustaining populations. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. Any examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

1💜☘️ For your chosen case study of one country's population policy, explain the nature of the population problem(s) experienced by the country.

The syllabus requires such a case study to be linked to natural increase but accept those that include migration. Exact content will vary with the chosen case study. Indicative content could include problems stemming from: • high birth rate • low birth rate • high infant mortality rate • ageing population • excessively youthful population • migration (out or in) • an unbalanced population structure e.g. sex ratios • population related problems such as famine, unemployment, poverty Award marks based on the quality of explanation (with a clear notion of why this is a problem for the country) and breadth of the response using the marking levels below.

2❤️🌸. Explain two or more issues caused by ageing populations.

The wording is permissive; issues may be demographic, social, economic or political (environmental being unlikely). There may be in-depth coverage of two issues, or briefer explanation of more. The explanation needs to be of why it is an issue or what makes it an issue, such as impact, significance, seriousness, implications, consequences, etc. (i.e. not simply describing or identifying the issue). For example: • demographic: decline in total numbers (regressive population) • demographic: decline in birth rate, TFR below replacement level • social: burden of care, e.g. China's 1-2-4 problem • social: societal norms may become traditional, focussed on past, loss of vibrancy (identified by Singapore) • social: loneliness, neglect, mental health issues for aged • economic: lack of work force, need for immigrant labour (with associated issues), e.g. Singapore • economic: tax burden on workers, increased costs of eldercare on government provision, e.g. healthcare, social care • economic: competitive market place in provision for elderly • political: 'silver' voice/needs, demands, priorities Mark on overall quality. Indicators of quality may be conceptual insight, a strong explanatory basis, use of examples from LEDCs and/or MEDCs.

2💜☘️. Explain the concept of optimum population.

Theoretically, there is for any given supply of available natural resources, together with a given supply of capital and a given social organization, a certain size of population which can operate these resources to the best advantage and produce the largest per capita income of consumers' goods possible under the given conditions. Regarding the human population, end-targets for an optimum population include ecological sustainability, economic output and philosophical or ethical ends-in-themselves. There is some variation in the exact definition: • 1 mark for a given size of population idea • 1 mark for link to resources • 1 mark for the idea of maximum/best advantage/gain/production

2☘️. Describe two consequences of food shortages.

There are numerous consequences including: • Starvation and death • Malnutrition/ill-health/increased vulnerability to diseases • Lack of energy, so productivity falls • Migration out of area • Rationing - often by price rise • Increased friction between haves and have-nots • Positive responses, e.g. stimulus to improve food production (technology, innovation)

3❤️🌸. Explain why it can be difficult to reduce the birth rate in LEDCs.

This can be difficult for a number of reasons or factors, often working in combination: • social, e.g. tradition, cultural norms, religious basis of society, illiteracy, takes time to change attitudes • economic, e.g. use of child labour, children caring for elderly parents, family poverty, cost of contraception • physical, e.g. inaccessibility of remote areas • political, e.g. instability, conflict, poor governance, other political priorities, idea of 'a strong nation' Mark holistically. A full response may comprise four developed points with some exemplar support or a more broadly based explanation.

1💜☘️. Compare recent changes in life expectancy in LICs/MICs and HICs.

This is a comparison so two separate accounts maximum 4 marks. The stress is on changes so a comparison of current life expectancy maximum 4 marks. 'Recent' = within the last 40 years i.e. not historical changes. Indicative content: • both have increased life expectancy • HICs still have a lot higher life expectancy than LICs • LICs have rapidly increased whilst HICs have slowed (or even fallen) • LICs (unlike HICs) fluctuate in life expectancy due to disasters, wars, disease outbreaks (some may have decreased) • females have longer life expectancy in HICs compared to LICs but increasing more than males in LICs • contrasts in changes in infant mortality impacting on life expectancy Point mark such that 3 valid points with development (detail, use of data) can achieve the maximum. There is no explanation required/expected but allow as de

1☘️ Explain why death rates of females have decreased in many LICs/MICs.

This is a fairly recent phenomenon and reflects a number of factors. These could include: • Higher levels of education of females • Better medical care, especially at birth • Female emancipation so females have greater say in their lifestyles (especially over number of children) / have own career so higher incomes • Better diets so less malnutrition • Greater agricultural production so fewer die of starvation (often females sacrificed themselves to keep children alive) • Greater care over social habits, e.g. AIDs Point mark: 1 mark per point or 2 if point developed with detail and / or example.

2☘️. Explain why death rates are increasing in many HICs.

This is a fairly recent phenomenon and reflects a number of factors. These could include: • An ageing population, so more deaths from degenerative diseases • Affluent lifestyle leading to obesity, diabetes, etc. • Environmental pollution (especially traffic fumes) causing cancer and lung problems • Increased stress (e.g. work-related) leading to depression, suicide, excessive use of alcohol, etc. • Social habits, e.g. smoking, alcohol, drugs • More travel abroad - skin cancer Point mark 1 per point or more if point developed with detail and/or example.

2☘️. Explain the role of technology and innovation in increasing food production.

This is about food production which is more than just improving farming - it would include transport, storage and processing of the farm produce. Many will take technology and innovation as a whole rather than appreciate innovation is about new ideas/approaches which may or may not require technology. There are many ways of structuring this answer such as: • Technology = machines speeding cultivation or extending the farmed area, use of ICT to control processing and storage, use of chemicals, new hybrid breeds of plants and animals, use of more effective refrigerated transport, crop spraying from the air, hydroponics, vertical farming • Innovation = transferring techniques from other areas/cultures, new crops/animals, use of waste or by-products from crops or animals, more efficient processing and packing A classic example is the impact of fast freezing of vegetables and fish to preserve them, so reducing spoilage. Some may apply the two terms to the different stages of food production. Response clearly explains in detail the role of technology and innovation in the development of food production. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. Any examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

1☘️. Explain two ways of reducing food shortages.

This is about reducing food shortages which is more than just improving farm production - it would include transport, storage and processing of the farm produce. Equally, the demand can be reduced. There are many ways of structuring this answer such as: • Improving technology = machines speeding cultivation on or extending the farmed area, use of ICT to control processing and storage, use of chemicals, new hybrid breeds of plants and animals, hydroponics, use of more effective refrigerated transport, crop spraying from the air • Innovation = transferring techniques from other areas/cultures, new crops/animals, use of waste or by-products from crops or animals, more efficient processing and packing • Increased intensification vs extensification - bringing more marginal areas into cultivation • Reducing consumer numbers via migration and/or anti-birth policies • Reducing waste food or rationing so fewer shortages • Importing food from areas of surplus • Emergency aid • Exchanging cash crops/non-food crops for food crops Response clearly explains in detail the role of two ways of reducing food shortages - equal balance between the two. Response is well founded in detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding of the topic. Any examples used are appropriate and integrated effectively into the response.

1❤️☘️. 'Governments face difficulties in managing the effects of population change.' To what extent do you agree with this statement?

This question looks at the management of the effects (environmental, demographic, economic, social and political) of population change - both in number, location and structure (e.g. ageing population) rather than the population change itself. A focus on the latter is unlikely to get beyond Level 1. Governments often do struggle as they lack resources, knowledge and the political will to tackle the results which are often very dynamic and unpredictable. Higher level responses should recognise that governments (local and / or national) vary in their capacity due to a range of factors including the nature and scale of the effects. Make a response from detailed knowledge and strong conceptual understanding. Have clear cause and effect link between government attempts to manage and the effects of population change. Provide an effective assessment. Use one or more examples in detail

1❤️☘️. Explain some of the economic impacts of an ageing population.

Two impacts with sound development can reach max. Some impacts will be negative such as: • Less active labour force / labour shortage • Need for more health care (cost - higher taxes) • Cost of pensions / social security will rise - fewer to pay these • Underused schools etc. Some may be positive such as: • Greater use of elderly labour e.g. charity work • Greater proportion working beyond pension age • Greater experience e.g. less absenteeism at work Others may be simply changes such as changes in patterns of consumption, housing etc. No requirement for both negative and positive impacts.

1❤️🌸. Define the term underpopulation.

Underpopulation is an imbalance in the population-resource relationship: • where there are too few people (1 mark) • to make full use of the resources (1 mark) • at a given level of technology or to achieve the maximum standard of living (1 mark)

2🌸. Describe how to calculate a dependency ratio.

youths or young population (0-14) elderly (over 65) ----------------------------------------------------------- economically active or working population ( 5-65) x100 Credit top: 2 marks; bottom: 1 mark, and division/over the other/ratio 1 mark. Allow some tolerance on the ages given (such as 16 and 60). An accurate formula receives full marks. Award 1 mark for an inaccurate formula showing some understanding of dependency ratio.

2💜🌸 Give two reasons why changing the natural increase rate can be difficult

• demographic, e.g. age/sex structure, high IMR • social, e.g. culture, tradition, illiteracy, personal views, role of women • economic, e.g. cost (anti-natal and pro-natal), labour need • environmental, e.g. accessibility of remote areas • political, e.g. instability, corruption, disagreement • takes time to impact

2💜🌸 Explain two issues caused by ageing populations.

• tax burden on the economically active • shortage of workers • need for increased health and welfare provision for the aged • burden of care on child/children, e.g. China 4-2-1 • need for pro-natal policy and/or immigration • cost and provision of pensions

1💜🌸 Explain why having a youthful population can be a challenge for LICs/MICs.

- pressure of numbers / population pressure / overpopulation • food demand / number of mouths to feed • health needs of infants and children • education needs - providing schools, teachers, etc. • limited finances • other government or development priorities • dependents do not contribute to the economy or pay taxes