Gov 312L Moser Exam 2

What is the case for an important role of Reagan foreign policy in the end of the Cold War? How did the foreign policy regarding the Soviet Union differ in Reagan's first term and his second term?

- Conservatives believe Reagan deserves credit for following an effective and conscious foreign policy that challenged soviet union in order to apply pressure for change. - First Term: Confrontation-Rhetoric, arms buildup, Strategic Defense Initiative, Reagan Doctrine -Second Term: Negotiation- Cooling the Rhetoric, embracing Soviet reform, Arms Control

What is politics (as defined in lecture)? What are the two central components of this definition?

-The use of authority to allocate scarce resources and as a of Means coordinating social behavior A.) Authority: capacity to impose costs (physical, economic, social, emotional) if directive not followed Example: We have to pay taxes, if not they will throw you in jail Politics is about the use authority to coordinate social behavior B.) Allocation of scarce resources: implies some degree of competition or social conflict over that allocation

What is the central dilemma of the use of force to establish political order in domestic politics? How does this same dilemma frame the problem of war and political order in the international order?

-The use of force can be abused. The same power that can be used to maintain power can be abused. Predation: Political equivalent to armed robbery. Example: Hitler took land through force then used food/resources. Sometimes have to go to war to impose limits on violence. (Have to counter force with force) Example: Nazis/Isis taking land, forces US to intervene with force

Why did the United States adopt the Marshall Plan? What were the policy's goals and how did the policy play to American strengths and contribute to American prosperity?

-This policy provided economic aid to Europe to promote Democracy and to help defeat the spread of communism. -Curbing domestic attraction to communism. This plan also builds US as economic power house. -George Marshall wanted to make it seem like this plan was not against any particular country, but rather help all the countries that experienced loss in the war. -Marshall plan was even offered to Soviets, but they saw it as US trying to plant seeds and attract countries to American led capitalism

According to Ikenberry (cited in lecture), why was the 2003 invasion of Iraq so problematic for the constraint of U.S. military power?

-US allies and U.N. say no to Iraq, but US goes anyway. -American power still legitimate outside of US? Example: What does US do once ISIS is defeated?

How do great powers structure international politics after great power wars like World War I and World War II? Describe the main changes in the international system that occur in the aftermath of these wars and the peace settlement that follows.

-Victors write the rules of the new system, and as a result, shape its long term sustainability. 1. set requirements for membership and withdraw territorial boundaries 2. regime type of new members 3. Distribution of military powers. 4. Enforcement mechanisms 5. Division of territory among surviving great powers changes as well.

What factors have undermined the legitimacy of democracies around the world?

-Wildly irresponsible billionaires and corporations -Concentrated media ownership -Institutional discrimination -Monarchy system -Capitalism (economic injustices) -Referendums -Distortion: The existence of a large military concentrates and organizes force in a way that can undermine democracy

Why was containment so much more difficult in the Third World than it was in Europe?

-containment easier in europe bc it was achieved by invasion. In 3rd world, it was rooted in civil wars and nationalists wars of independence (che guevara/guerrilla warfare)

According to Walter LaFeber and the Wisconsin School (covered in lecture), how did crucial business interests and the need for foreign markets contribute to the timing of American expansion in the 1890s?

-important role of business interests -need new foreign markets, many of which closed because of European colonialism, to cure problem of overproduction and deflation >important component policies: high tariffs to increase revenue for military spending +raise domestic prices, naval spending, territorial annexations -acquire foreign markets through territorial expansion; politically easier than domestic reform in aftermath of economic crisis

What did Russia do in response to Ukrainian moves toward greater integration with European economic and political structures in 2014? How did the United States and the West react to Russian interference in Ukrainian politics?

-imposed censorship and strict rule, invaded and annexed Crimea. Unidentified troops carrying Russian weapons and equipment seized government buildings in the Ukrainian regions .

According to Fareed Zakaria (covered in lecture), why was America slow in expanding from a continental power to a global power?

-not like other great powers in the age of imperialism -war fatigue from civil war turns US inward to focus on consolidation (war made the state) -institutional prerequisites for expansion: solidify federal authority over the States, executive authority over Congress, and build up federal bureaucracy

What made the American Civil War an international event? What differentiated Union diplomacy from Confederate diplomacy?

-survival of democratic governance >democracy at the time was seen by many as unstable and chaotic -European powers' role in the fate of the Union: -Britain/France neutral but favor Confederacy -Russia supported Union (north was stronger) -union diplomacy: industry + anti-slavery (liberals) -confederate diplomacy: king cotton (conservatives)

How did the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Bosnian nationalist named Gavrilo Princip lead to the outbreak of World War I? What role did the threat of nationalist uprisings in the Austro-Hungarian empire play?

Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia largely due to the Serbian nationalist movement of which Princip was a part. Wanted to squash these movements. Sparked WWI-interlocking alliances. Russia came to Serbia'said. Germany was thought to fight with Austria-Hungary. Later declared war on Russia and it's ally, France. Germany attacked France through Belgium. Belgium also came into war with Britain by its side.

How is civil war different from international war? What dilemmas associated with the commitment problem arise from the need for one side to disarm in a civil war? How can intervention from a third party (like the United States) help to resolve the commitment problem?

Civil Wars are different from international wars in that civil wars don't end in bargaining and one side has to be disarmed. Disarmament creates an intense period of political vulnerability (the losing side can no longer use military force to punish other side if do not abide by peace terms). A third party (like the US) can help alleviate the commitment problem by making sure the losing side is protected (since there are no longer domestic institutions). However, to be effective the third party (like the US) must stay the course and they need (must have) domestic support (to do this). International intervention in civil war (I)? -Most civil war do not end with disputants finding bargain on their own—one side imposes solution or third party helps enforce. Why? -Civil war different from international war: one side has to disarm -Disarmament creates intense period of vulnerability because no longer use military force to punish other side if do not abide by peace terms -This is commitment problem: fear of one side not fulfilling peace obligations coupled with vulnerability of disarmament leads to continuation of war -Civil war has destroyed institutions (judiciary, police, power-sharing like federal division, minority rights) used to solve this enforcement problem -Can substitute third party guarantee (B. Walter) if: --External state has self-interest in upholding --Third party willing to use force if necessary --Can signal resolve to stay the course

How did Gorbachev's foreign policy (his "New Thinking") differ from classic Soviet foreign policy?

Classic policy believed East and West could not cooperate or negotiate New thinking emphasized mutual security and benefits of collective values that unite all countries

Summarize the arguments made by Lukyanov. How do they illustrate the destabilizing consequences of shifts in the distribution of power among great powers?

Lukyanov critiqued American expansionism and he says Russia drew the line in Crimea in 2014. This expansionism lead to a destabilizing shift (from US unipolarity) to a weakening US. This weakening lead Russia to attack Ukraine and Syria (the USs decline presented them with an opportunity and they took advantage of it). Lukyanov reading -Deterioration of US-Russian relations from --Power shifts (Russian decline and then American decline/Russian resurgence) --American violation of spirit of compromise with Gorbachev --Expansion of Western institutions post Cold War ---NATO ---Support for color revolutions that threatened Russian allies

Explain how credibility depends on capabilities and resolve.

For credibility, you need 3: Capability: You have second strike weapons that will survive the initial first strike. During cold war: Submarines improve credibility. Resolve: Demonstrate resolve. Don't back down. If actors really want something, willing to pay lots of cost to get it make public threats: Kennedy did this using TV during Cuba. Another way: Leave something to chance to demonstrate your resolve Have bombers fly unguarded over enemy territory at risk of dropping. Allies protection: Sacrifice your cities to protect allied cities LA for W.Germany Tripwires: Troops along North/South Korean border and West Berlin Eisenhower wanted to give W.Germany their own nuclear weapons

According to this module's reading, what is the difference between general deterrence and immediate deterrence?

General Deterrence: long-term maintenance of military forces as a show of force to deter an enemy's potential surprise attack or first strike constant state of readiness to use nuclear weapons Immediate Deterrence: involves the issuing of deterrent threats in the midst of a crisis o The state wishing to prevent an immediate nuclear attack must issue an overt, specific deterrent threat of retaliation in response to the prospective attack, which is intended to dissuade the potential attacker from following through on its intended action

How did reforms such as Glasnost and Perestroika introduced by President Mikhail Gorbachev contribute to the collapse of the Soviet Union?

He helped move the soviet union closer towards democracy by passing polices such as glasnost that encouraged openness and many other things. Also he introduced democratization because he realized his economy wasn't doing great so he decided to have a new elective vote legislative. More freedom and openness to the people allowed people to question communism.

Why did the United States enter World War I and what impact did its entrance have?

Impacts: -American intervention in 1917 changes course of war; sets up its termination -military consequences: shifts in balance of military power alters German perceptions of potential for victory -political consequences: war+ Wilson's support of self-determination facilitates imperial collapse and democracy -economic consequences: US as preeminent economic power of world and victor's creditor *US plays critical role in construction of postwar international political order Why did US enter? -Woodrow Wilson consistently works to keep US out, campaigns on this in 1916 election (Peace without victory speech) -German submarine campaign shifts public opinion, makes it politically impossible to stay out of war -Wilson also wants to shape the terms of peace > Armistice of Nov 1918 -America was backed by France/GB in 1917

How did Gorbachev's refusal to use force to sustain communist rule in Eastern Europe contribute to the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union?

It focused on new ideas about security that contrasted classical Soviet foreign policy

Discuss the dynamics of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election. Who is Jair Bolsonaro and why is he so controversial? What factors explain Brazilian voters' attraction to Jair Bolsonaro, the populist candidate?

Jair Bolsonaro is a deeply polarising figure who rose from political irrelevance. He has praised Pinochet, expressed support for torturers and called for political opponents to be shot. But he built a successful campaign on fear over rising violent crime, anger over repeated corruption scandals and an efficient social media operation. He represents law and order, which in enticing in a nation filled with scandals and crime.

How has political polarization surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation battle affected the midterm congressional elections in the United States?

Kavanaugh confirmation has mobilized the base for both the Democrats and Republicans•The "enthusiasm gap" has narrowed from a 10-point difference in favor of Democrats to only a 2-point difference;May favor Democrats in House races but Republicans in the Senate

Why did the U.S. assert such an ambitious foreign policy statement at this time?

Latin American independence movements ○ Developments in Europe ■ Napoleonic Wars, Holy Alliance (Russia, Prussia, Austria), and fear of return of monarchy ■ Balance of power system in Europe allowed for greater assertiveness

What is mutually assured destruction (MAD)? What is a second strike capability and why is it essential to mutually assured destruction?

MAD describes the situation where both sides of the conflict posses nuclear weapons and second strike capabilities which means that neither side has an incentive to start a nuclear war due to fears of nuclear retaliation from the side that is attacked. Second strike capability The ability to survive an attack from the other side, the first strike, then retaliate with a second strike that will destroy the attacker.

Discuss U.S. foreign policy during the 1920s. In what ways was American foreign policy isolationist during this period and in what ways did the U.S. remain involved in world affairs?

Many historians noted US isolationism policy between wars, ignoring crises, trying to stay clear of foreign entanglements. However, US = far too powerful and influential a nation to remain isolated. American foreign policy traditionally veered between isolationism and interventionism. Motive for intervening in affairs in other countries may have been the US looking after its own interests abroad rather than desire for foreign involvement for its own sake - to further her benefits. Intervention resulted during 20s in terms of disarmament treaties and prolonged controversies about repayment of war loans. E.g. Dawes Plan.

What is the moral hazard problem? How can this concept help to explain how the prospect of intervention from a third party (like the United States) might actually increase incentives to leave civilian populations vulnerable to attack and genocide?

Moral hazard problem: mechanism of insurance actually encourages risky behavior that trying to deter It encourages these groups to take on bigger risks because they assume someone will come and bail them out.

How did the Articles of Confederation and its concentration of power in the states shape American foreign policy?

More like an alliance: loose union among the states, state loyalty more important Congress possesses authority to control diplomatic relations, requisition money and soldiers from states, coin and borrow money, settle disputes among states Commercial regulation and taxation remain with the states Article 2: "each State retains its sovereignty, freedom and independence, and every power, jurisdiction, and right, which is not by this confederation delegated to the United States, in Congress assembled."

How might national missile defense influence the stability of nuclear deterrence?

National missile defense = satellite and missile technology that can destroy incoming ballistic missiles Offense is considered better than defense because it's unlikely to successfully defend a large nuclear power Defense systems encourage riskier behavior because it acts as insurance against attacks (moral hazard) Strains relations and increases enemy aggressions

What was Washington's fear regarding international cleavages and American domestic politics?

○ Attachments and animosity toward nations will only cloud the government's judgment in its foreign policy ○ Longstanding poor relations will only lead to unnecessary wars due to a tendency to blow minor offenses out of proportion when committed by nations viewed as enemies of the United States. ○ Alliances are likely to draw the United States into wars which have no justification and no benefit to the country ○ Often lead to poor relations with nations who feel that they are not being treated as well as America's allies, and threaten to influence the American government into making decisions based upon the will of their allies instead of the will of the American people ○ Dangers of nations who seek to influence the American people and gov.

What were the implications of the Monroe Doctrine?

○ Key Moment of Evolution of U.S. foreign policy ■ An assertive United States enters the world stage ○ Introduces key concepts/ideals: ■ Sphere of influence ■ Anti-colonialism ■ Protection of democracy ■ Basis for American imperialism?

What were the main principles of the Monroe Doctrine?

○ The Western Hemisphere was no longer open for colonization ○ Drew a line between colonies and newly independent Latin American states, extending American protection against European interference only to the latter ○ Dual message: ■ Asserted sphere of influence ■ Would refrain from participation in European wars and would not disturb existing colonies in Western Hemisphere

What was Great Britain's role in enforcing the Monroe Doctrine?

○ U.S. too weak to enforce the Monroe Doctrine but Great Britain and the British Navy enforced it for them ○ The British Foreign Secretary George Canning wanted to keep the other European powers out of the New World fearing that its trade with the New World would be harmed if the other European powers further colonized it. ○ The United Kingdom, for much of the early years of the Monroe Doctrine, was the sole nation enforcing it through the use of its navy

How did Washington's Farewell Address set a precedent of isolationism for the United States?

○ Warns against foreign entanglements: antipathies or alliances ○ Critical to survival against internal and external threats ○ Sets up a tradition of isolationism by suggesting detachment from Europe

How did France help to secure independence for the American colonies from Great Britain?

● France was our ally in our fight for independence and helped us to secure it by aiding in loans and military support

how did American capital play an important role in keeping the reparations system afloat and the withdrawal of American capital contribute to the end of German reparation payments?

● Isolationist sentiment in US after great depression limits how FDR can respond to German threat ● Relies on economic support of British effort until Pearl Harbor switches public support for intervention 2. US loans propping up reparations system 3. Wilson acquiesces in harsh peace on Germany, particularly with respect to territorial acquisitions that did not confirm to principle of self-determination to protect League of Nations

What challenges did Great Britain face in managing its colonies in North America in light of the Seven Years/French & Indian War?

● New challenges for the British in N. America ○ Paying for the war ○ Protecting western frontier ● War shocks the political relationship between Great Britain and the colonies ● Significant new taxes to pay for the troops ○ Stamp Act, Sugar Act, Currency Act, Townshend Act, Monopoly on Tea Trade ● Political opposition, increasingly focused on independence, mobilizes in colonies ○ commercial embargos of british products ○ recreation of local legislative bodies ○ opposition to taxes ● Great Britain responds with new limits on self-governance ○ coercive acts of 1774

What were the causes and implications of the Truman Doctrine?

● Set precedent for the entire Cold War ● US replaced Great Britain in the power vacuum - seen as only powerful enough nation ● Established the Domino theory: Made American interests incredibly expansive, though the territories may not be useful to the US, but had to keep the USSR from expanding ● US intervention in Greece, was a parallel to the later conflict in Vietnam—power vacuum in a country with no importance but stepped in to keep the Soviets out.

How did Western expansion in the mid-1800s contribute to the emergence of the United States as a global power? What forces promoted American expansionism in the middle of the 19th century?

expanding over continent provided key resources: -land (wealth, places to settle) -natural resources (economic prosperity) -basis for dynamic economic growth, which provided a solid economic foundation for global power forces promoting American expansion: -population and economic growth> keeping peace -technology> the railroad - reduce commerce costs -ideology>Manifest Destiny - western land settling -domestic politics> slavery - aggregated conflict

What is extended deterrence and how does it affect the credibility of deterrent threats?

extended deterrence: preventing an armed attack against another state peace during the cold war rested heavily on threats of the US attacking SU if they invaded West Germany -if Soviets doubt US credibility, they will attack and take West Berlin; if US allies (mainly France) doubt US credibility, they will exit the alliance (moving to SU side or neutrality, leaving US on its own)

What is political polarization? How does it affect democracy?

-The strong division of a population based on political ideology. -makes parties ideologically homogenous -makes more people become independents -less likely for parties to elect a centrist candidate

According to this module's reading, what are some ways that a state demonstrates credibility in nuclear deterrence? Explain the strategy of brinkmanship and how making threats "that leaving something to chance" increases credibility. What are "tripwire forces" and how do they increase credibility?

-A state can demonstrate credibility in nuclear deterrence by: -issuing public statements in democracies that would be politically costly to reverse -having capabilities such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine launched ballistic missiles -protecting allies with extended deterrence Brinkmanship: strategy employs and manipulated risk to increase the credibility of a threat to use extreme force, in this case a nuclear attack by demonstrating that one is willing to take risky action that lessens the leader's control of the situation and increases the chance that the crisis could spiral into a nuclear conflict, one increases the credibility that they are also willing to contemplate nuclear retaliation Tripwire Forces: serve a political purpose Another way that states have increased their credibility of their deterrence threats is by placing their own forces in harm's way on the territory of an ally that is protected by extended deterrence threats o The idea behind this is to raise the stakes of an adversary's attack against a protected ally by guaranteeing that such an attack involved losses for the patron state offering protection

What was the "end of history" thesis? Compare the growth of democracies around the world in the late 1980s/early 1990s to the early 2000s. What do these trends suggest about the end of history thesis?

-Argued that liberal democracy had spread throughout the world and no longer had a serious challenger -in some respects this thesis echoed work published earlier in the post-war period, which claimed that meaningful ideological conflict had come to an end -the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.

What were the main elements of the peace settlement after World War II and how did the United States influence the political order after 1945?

-Democracy promotion and support -Collective security through NATO -Creation of new international organizations -new international economic order and spread of gloablization (all of these designed to increase national commerce)

How did the threat posed by Napoleon influence the development of the United States (both through the Louisiana Purchase and the War of 1812)?

-French lose control 1763, reestablish 1800 -pending resumption of European War creates French need for additional revenue >LP -US profiting from war in Europe > the carry trade on experts/neutrality (importance of commercial interests to grand strategy) -Jefferson embargoes US trade with Europe> prompts internal political crisis in the US -War Hawks see British strategic focus on Europe as opportunity to conquer Canada and Florida -military stalemate up to 1814 flames risk of secession in New England -military outcomes and peace negotiations in Europe shape British willingness to make concessions that create peace in 1814 *European war critical to American political development

What is the German security problem? What was the American solution to this problem? What was the Soviet solution? How was the German problem aggravated by Eisenhower's willingness to rearm Germany, potentially with nuclear weapons? Why was Berlin such an important signal of American commitment to protect Western Europe from Soviet aggression?

-Germany is threatened because it is surrounded by large powers that potentially join together and attack Germany. Germany would be forced to spread its military forces out thinly, making its defenses weak. -American solution: partition, occupy, democratize West Germany and integrate it economically and militarily in Western alliance -Soviet solution: partition, occupy, Communize -US fears: would Soviets retake West Berlin? Invade Western Europe? -Soviet Fears: would west Germany reconstitute power and attack soviets? Also, Eisenhower was willing to rearm Germany; maybe even with nukes -Why Berlin? Berlin is very important. It shows that America is committed to protecting Western Europe.

What were the main pillars of the peace settlement after World War I? How did President Woodrow Wilson influence the international system in 1919?

-He championed national self determination (new states and anti-imperialism) - support for democracy - collective security in league of nations

At the beginning of his speech to the United Nations, President Trump outlines some of the successes he believes his administration has achieved. What are they? Why does Trump think that the U.S. is now stronger, safer, and more prosperous now than before he became president?

-Increased # of jobs created -Lowered Unemployment Rate -Strong military buildup He believes this because he states that America has taken a stand against other nations taking advantage of the U.S. and that there is more of an emphasis on the sovereign state instead of global order.

According to this module's reading, what are the requirements of Just War theory within its three realms (jus ad bellum - just resort to war; jus in bello - just conduct of war; and jus post bellum - just aftermath of war)?

-Just war theory: idealist view -argues that war can be morally justified if certain requirements are met -just initiation of war Requirements: -Just war has just cause like self-defense -war must be used as a last resort -must be undertaken by a legitimate authority -war must be motivated by defense, not aggression -war must have reasonable chance of success -ends of war must be proportional to means of war -just conduct of war requirements: -soldiers killing soldiers is OK, but killing civilians is not OK -Proportionality- how much force is morally acceptable? (Aka unnecessary violence is not acceptable. -Victory country doesn't have free realm to do whatever they want Just aftermath of war requirements -goal of war is to reestablish peace - civilians should not be harmed, rights should be protected

How does violence shape political order? Give an example of how the use of coercion by a legitimate authority helps to establish political order.

-Political order: stable patterns or regularities of social behavior induced by authority -Critical role for coercion and violence in politics -Violence (threat of it) is necessary for enforcement of directives Example: Police on 6th street having guns. If police were not here with guns, chaos would break out.

How did the U.S. address the central dilemma of the use of force in the international realm after World War II? What role did international organizations play in constraining U.S. military power?

-The existence of the Soviets and the competition they had with them -US had to use force to defeat Hitler, but joined NATO post war to prove they wouldn't abuse their power -Organizations such as NATO helped bind the military power of the US through its institutions

What were the political consequences of the Great Depression and how did they contribute to World War II?

1. FDR and US withdrawal from Europe (isolationist from 1933 to 1938)---Congress passes series of Neutrality Acts (1935, 1936, 1937) 2. German government makes collapse worse by pursuing austerity (dramatic spending cuts, tax hikes, high interest rates) and creates political space for Hitler's Nazi Party to seize government through legal, constitutional means 3. Hitler then uses rearmament to generate economic recovery, which leads directly to WWII 4. Significant political consequences: facilitates rise of Hitler and temporary American withdrawal from world stage.

How does FDR get around an isolationist Congress and support the Allied powers (particularly the British war effort) against Germany?

1. delicate game of expanding US support for British war effort while not publicly committing US to fight the war 2. Sep 1939: gets Congress to repeal arms embargo of Neutrality Acts 3. US Navy patrolling Atlantic (skirmishes with German navy in fall of 1941) 4. Destroyers for naval bases deal with British by executive order (Sep 1940) 5. Lend Lease (March 1941): US as arsenal for democracy 6. Domestic constraints fall away with Pearl Harbor 7. Relies on economic support of British effort until Pearl Harbor switches public support for intervention.

How did American policies contribute to the Great Depression?

1. restrictive tariff policy 2. higher interest rates that slowed the flow of credit to europ 3. Smoot-Hawley (1929): high tariffs provoke reciprocal measures in world and global trade collapses 4. Tight monetary policy (pushes interest rates up) by Federal Reserve in 1928 halts loans to Germany (big implications for reparations 5. FDR (1933): takes US off gold standard to offset deflation (foster inflation)

What explains the absence of great power war since the mid-20th century?

1.Economic interdependence and changing of value - globalization has reduced the imperative to expand by equalizing access to economic resources of territory -ex. US- China relations 2. nuclear deterrence: secure second strike capabilities - may fight proxy wars but avoid direct conflict 3. Unipolarity: united states so far ahead in military terms than nearest competitor that it reduces incentives to challenge.

What other early Cold War crises led to a militarization of containment?

A.) Czechoslovakia (1948): They wanted to participate in Marshall Plan, but Soviets wouldn't allow it B.) Berlin Blockade (1948-49): US has to airlift in supplies to help berlin C.) Soviet Atomic Bomb (1949): Stalin and spies developed their own atomic bomb. US did not expect this. Took away US' monopoly over nuclear weapons, created fear in US D.) China turns Communist (1949): Mau Se Tung won long lasting civil war, which turned China communist: Huge setback for US, increasing Soviets power E.) Korean War (1950-53): war in asia, facing divided Europe and soviets: not ideal How did US respond to these? -NATO: Tied western Europe and US in security pact. Keep Russians out, Americans in, Germans down -NSC-68: Committed US to increase in defense budget and large tax increases to help pay for it.

According to President Trump in his UN speech, how have other countries' trade and economic policies taken advantage of the United States? How does Trump say his administration will remedy this situation?

According to Trump, other countries have taken advantage of the U.S. by causing us to outsource, increase imports, close down factories and move them to other nations, lose jobs, etc. Trump will remedy this by placing tariffs and backing out of deals where he feels we do not have much to gain by partaking in it. His goal is to bring more jobs to the U.S. and cut down on imports in order to increase exports.

Why do states fail to come to a peace settlement even though it will make all parties better off than if they continue fighting? What is the role of private information and overestimation of one side's bargaining leverage?

Basic theoretical problem: the bargaining model. Assumption: all wars are costly (economic cost, human cost, opportunity costs for citizens); puzzle: if wars are costly, then why can't parties reach some peace settlement that would leave all participants better off than fighting? Explanations for why wars occurs should focus on why states fail to reach and/or sustain this mutually beneficial settlement. Uncertainty/private information: like military power between two states or the willingness of an adversary to pay the cost of war can lead to war by encouraging one side to overestimate its bargaining leverage and then fails to make sufficient concessions to the other side to preserve peace; too greedy. Commitment problem: difficulties associated with contracting over time; make a deal today for a year from now, their willingness to abide by this deal in a year might change so you don't make the deal; states go to war if they think a peace deal isn't sustainable over time

What is deterrence? What are the main elements of deterrence? How is deterrence different from defense?

Deterrence is a psychological process built around issuing credible threats of punishment to convince an adversary to refrain from acting a certain way. Deterrence is to discourage attack through the threat of retaliation. "If you attack me, I may not be able to prevent your attack, but I can retaliate so powerfully that you will not want to attack in the first place." defense vs. deterrence ex. the student example

What is the commitment problem and how does it contribute to continuation of conflict? What are the sources of the commitment problem?

Commitment problem: difficulties associated with contracting over time; make a deal today for a year from now, their willingness to abide by this deal in a year might change so you don't make the deal; states go to war if they think a peace deal isn't sustainable over time Rapid and large shift in the distribution of military

Why did wartime cooperation between the United States and Soviet Union so quickly collapse after World War II?

Competing goals: universal democracy vs. desire for a buffer zoneMutual suspicions: accused of capitalist imperialism vs. Russians desire for a world revolutionIndividual level: Truman's anticommunist stance vs. Stalin's paranoia.

Under what conditions might nuclear weapons paradoxically make war less likely?

Countries are deterred from making war if with other countries have secure second strike capabilities - they have enough nukes for a retaliatory strike. Thus, if both countries in a conflict have secure second strike capabilities war is less likely. -Successful deterrence rests on secure second strike capabilities --Sufficient number of nuclear weapons so that all cannot be destroyed in a first strike by adversary. Enough survive to launch retaliatory strike. -If both sides possess secure second strike capabilities, both sides deterred from launching war --US and Soviets avoided direct military confrontation during the Cold War because of the risk that a war could escalate into a nuclear war and kill millions.

What is the problem of credibility in nuclear deterrence? Explain why the effectiveness of deterrent threats depends on credibility.

Do you have the will to execute these threats? Do you have the capability to execute these threats? Will you surrender your own cities/people to execute these threats? If no one believes your answers to any of those questions, then your threat of deterrence is invalid

How did the peaceful end of the Cold War lead to more civil wars in the Third World?

End of Cold War brings end of American and Soviet support for these regimes Absence of foreign support and diminished expectation of great power intervention creates local incentives to challenge their rule Internal collapse of Soviet Union, prompted in part by nationalism, creates many new states with mixed ethnic composition Also, Russian oppression ended which allowed more people to challenge the rule of the state.

How did war and the anticipation of war in Europe lead to constructing a constitution with a stronger national government capable of reining in state powers?

Needed a way to bind the states together (led to need for the Constitution) Foreign policy and American weakness key role in move toward Constitution Weakness also provoke attack European War fairly regular: US in danger of being drawn in, more so if loose confederation Need to be able to enforce foreign treaties on states that resist John Jay: Worry that state rivalry invite foreign intervention, alliances Commercial problems created by different state tariffs; could strength commercial leverage if bargain as an entire economy Shift debate from internal distributional conflicts (access to western lands, different state size) to unifying issue—national strength

According to this module's reading, what is the nuclear revolution? What distinguishes nuclear weapons from conventional weapons?

Nuclear Revolution: Nuclear weapons as source of stability at all levels (nuclear optimism) Assumptions: 1. No preventive war 2. No accidents or terrorism 3. Second strike capability Distinguished from conventional weapons by their enormous potential lethality and their relative lack of discrimination in whom they kill.

What is nuclear proliferation? Why do states acquire nuclear weapons, sometimes at the risk of provoking severe international backlash? How do international norms affect whether or not a state pursues nuclear weapons?

Nuclear proliferation is win non-nuclear states try to acquire nuclear weapons. States acquire nuclear weapons for security reasons (don't trust extended deterrence), domestic political reasons, and because of international norms. -Nuclear proliferation and the problem of credibility --Non-nuclear states often seek nuclear weapons because they do not trust the credibility of extended deterrence --Nuclear proliferation may increase credibility problems because proliferators lack the fundamentals for secure second strike capabilities -Why do some non-nuclear states pursue nuclear weapons and others do not? --Security --Domestic politics --International norms -Why do nuclear states and the international community want to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons? --Recent proliferators have fewer nukes and less likely to possess secure, second strike capabilities --Domestic instability of nuclear proliferators increases chances of accidents, spread to terrorist groups --Risk of regional nuclear arms races --Nuclear weapons and changes to the regional and international status quo

How was the Cold War similar to a great power conflict and how did the end of the Cold War resemble a peace settlement following a great power war?

Resulted in major changes to the international system: -territorial and state change (map changed) -regime change -distribution of military power changed -enforcement mechanisms changed (warsaw pact collapsed, NATO, and EU expanded)

How did a global conflict originating in Europe help bring about the American state?

The 7 years war/French and Indian War. Britain was fighting against the French and Spanish. Britain needed to pay for the war in N. America and protect the western frontier so they enacted taxes to pay for the troops (e.x. stamp act, sugar act, currency act, Townshend act, monopoly on tea trade). Efforts to secure new revenues for British government prompted a backlash from local officials and the creation of local government bodies. Great Britain responded to this with new limits on self-governance. The shock of the 7 years war fundamentally altered the political relationship between the colonies and Britain.

Summarize the arguments made by Pavlovsky. What are some of weaknesses of the Russian state (or government) under Putin's leadership?How do these weaknesses complicate policymaking in Russia? How does Russian support of Ukrainian separatists illustrate these policy making challenges?

The Russian state is ineffective (there are independent actors like Curators which are hard to control). This weakness complicates policymaking in Russia because there is not cohesion (no primary mission, differing views). Russians support of the Ukraine separatists illustrates this challenge because Putin wanted to withdraw his support for the separatists (after they shot down a commercial plane), but the Curators did not listen to him. Pavlovsky reading -Assessment of Russian domestic politics under Putin -Failure to build efficient state bureaucracy that is responsive to political leadership -Lots of Putin surrogates (curators) with significant autonomy to experiment; and potentially to make mistakes -Examples: difficulties of pulling back support for separatists in Ukraine -Caution: what follows Putin?

Describe the main elements of the new trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada - the USMCA. Who were some of the socioeconomic groups that were "winners" (received concrete benefits from the agreement) and losers (are harmed by the agreement)?

The USMCA ultimately brings more jobs and factories over to the US, and that the majority of car parts must be manufactured in the U.S. Canada will be giving a greater market share to U.S. dairy farmers. Canada and Mexico get a partial exemption from the steel and aluminum tariffs Trump levied earlier this year. Winners: Labor Unions, U.S. Dairy Farmers, stock market investors Losers: U.S. car buyers, Canadian Steel

How was the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe and the Baltic states been perceived by Russian officials, particularly President Vladimir Putin? How did NATO expansion affect Russia's attitude toward Ukraine?

The incorporation of countries formerly in the Eastern Bloc has been a cause of increased tension between NATO countries and Russia. Many countries and territories were able to escape Russia's sphere of influence, so officials like Putin are against NATO. Russia felt more obligated to try and control Ukraine in order to keep them under their sphere of influence.

When he was a presidential candidate, what was Donald Trump's position regarding U.S-Russian relations? How did this compare to other presidential candidates?

Trump advocated a positive relationship with Russia, and was supportive of Putin. This differs from Obama's administration, where the U.S. opposed of Putin being able to run for life. Tensions were much higher then than they were when Trump was a presidential candidate.

How has Trump's approach to Russia been affected by Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election?

Trump is trying to downplay Russia's possible involvement in the 2016 elections and stating that his administration won fair and square. Therefore, he is trying to be more appeasing to Russia and defend them.

Describe what President Trump means when he says the world faces a choice between sovereignty and global governance? Why does he prefer an emphasis on state sovereignty?

Trump stated that America will always choose independence and cooperation over global governance, control, and domination. He prefers emphasis on state sovereignty because of his "America First" policy, and his belief that global intervention should be cut down.

How did President Trump use the size and influence of the American economy in global trade to gain leverage over Mexico and Canada in these negotiations?

Trump used size and influence to make threats of Tariffs and cutting off trade with Canada and Mexico. This would severely hurt their economies, and inclines them to accept Trump's proposal to minimize any damage that could be done to their economy.

How have nuclear weapons influenced US foreign policy since 1945?

We have moved from a defense foreign policy to a deterrence foreign policy. The Nuclear Threat: From Defense to Deterrence -In conventional era, protect territory and civilians with defense (or defensive military strategies) --Use conventional weapons (tanks, machine guns) to block access to civilians -Nuclear armed missiles shift national security strategy of US from one based on defense to one based on deterrence --Cannot shoot down incoming missiles so cannot defend population

How can international intervention into a civil war lessen the commitment problem? How can this dynamic help to explain the easing of the civil war in Iraq after the United States inserted more troops there in the surge of 2007? How did the end of this American surge also bear some responsibility in rise of ISIS in the region?

third party intervention is never objective 3rd party must have self-interest in upholding role as 3rd party, willing to use force if necessary, and can signal resolve to stay the course of intervention

What role did the Declaration of Independence play in signaling to France that the American colonies were worth supporting in its drive for independence?

● The Declaration of Independence signaled to France that we were serious and that we were a worthy cause to invest in ● Alliance with France in 1778 ○ Victory at Saratoga in 1777 signals chance at victory ○ Each guarantees other's' possessions in N. America, no separate peace, French aid, France fight until independence, French get British possessions in West Indies, commercial agreement ■ french build global coalition against British ■ Russia creates armed neutrality pact with northern europe designed to offset british naval advantage (enabled colonies to get access to european resources) ○ Important: alliance kills British offering of compromise peace ○ France seeks to weaken G. Britain, but also wants weaken U.S. North America

How did Kennan's definition of the Soviet threat naturally give rise to the containment strategy?

● The United States was facing a long-term strategic challenge. Believing in the infallibility of their belief system and the certainty of its ultimate triumph, our adversaries were therefore in no hurry to achieve their goals. But he added, importantly, that we should not assume that they were necessarily embarked on a "do-or-die" struggle to the end. ● The American response to this challenge, Kennan argued, must be a long-term and patient strategy of containment - the application of counter-force at a series of constantly shifting geographic and political points.

How did George Kennan view the Soviet threat?

● USSR innately Antagonistic towards US/allies ● Give up hope for renewal of alliance with Soviet Union or negotiation with regime (cooperations are only strategies for future conflicts with US) ● Persistent but patient ● Dual Nature: expansionary but cautious - use containment ● Different from Nazi Germany—too weak for war but ideology taught it that it is on right side of history ● Argued that soviet union was like water "it would flow wherever it is allowed to but if it finds barriers, it accepts them and accommodates but always will be pressure"

How did the Versailles Treaty, particularly the harsh terms imposed on Germany, contribute to World War II?

● destabilizing new (Weimar) democracy in Germany ○ had to impose unpopular economic policies ○ democracy died in Germany ○ opening door for Hitler's Nazi party