Intel & National Security

Layering

"If it's true there, it must therefore be true here." (assuming)

Politicization

"The main challenge to intelligence professionals, therefore, is to get enough information and assess its real implications dispassionately, while the main challenge to operators at the highest levels is to recognize when a proper understanding of reality confirms the feasibility of their aims, or compels them to change course."

Mirror Imaging

(projecting your values on them), even when "putting yourself in their mindset"

Tautology

(using logic) a statement that is necessarily true

Issues in Iran Robert Jervis

- Paucity of resources - Focus was on Iran - Thought Shah was going to crackdown on protestors - Only 4 people working on Iran and no communicating - Thought unarmed protestors would never overthrow - Ignorance of religion nationalism and anti-Americanism -

Standard Cycle of Intelligence

1.Planning and Direction (Identifying Requirements) 2.Collection 3.Processing (and Exploitation) 4.Analysis (and Production) 5.Dissemination Added 6.Consumption 7.Feedback

Betts Traditional Intelligence Cycle

1.Policymakers determine what info they need, and intel managers translate these needs into requirements for collection 2."Tasking" assigns collectors responsibility for seeking the necessary data 3.Collectors collect and report the raw data 4.Analysts assess the data in the context of other info and their own broader expertise 5."Production" converts the analysis into finished reports 6.Products are disseminated to consumers 7.The consumers make a policy decision and levy another round of requirements

BLUF

Bottom Line Up Front

"And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free."

CIA Headquarters / Bible Verse

Cooking and Pandering

Changing information to meet policy makers agenda

Classificaiton

Confidential Secret TS - Top Secret TS-SCI - Top Secret Security Clearance after Investigation

Budget (P&E)

Costs of Processing and Exploitation

Innocent Enemies

Entities that threaten intelligence unintentionally. Examples: negligent intelligence professionals, turf-conscious intelligence leadership who prevent integration and dissemination of information, and politicians who try to constrain intelligence operations that conflict with other values/priorities.

Outside Enemies

Foreign adversaries, actual and potential. Governments or groups in conflict with the U.S. who seek to conceal their intentions and capabilities.

GEO

Geostationary Orbit - Equator only - Telecommunications and Earth observation

HEO

Highly Elliptical Orbit - One end closer to earth - Communications, satellite radio, remote sensing

Collection Synergy

How different forms of technical, human, and open intelligence collection interact, and work together, to keep the intelligence/performance cycle moving.

HUMNIT

Human Intelligence - Derived from Humans

IMINT

Imagery Intelligence

Inherent Enemies

Institutional and psychological constraints. 1) A collection of mental limitations (the failure to imagine), dilemmas 2) Contradictory imperatives (the need for accuracy vs. timelines) 3) paradoxical interactions (the need to conceal information from the enemy balanced against the need to share information widely with those in the intelligence community) 4) Trade-offs (limited resources, differences among various courses of action, the imperative to centralize information balanced against the desire to foster competition of thought amongst agencies).

The Two Tribes

Intelligence Professionals and Policymakers

"Intelligence is also easier to keep pure when it is irrelevant"

Jack Davis

Limitation of Satellites

LEO, MEO, GEO, HEO

LEO

Low Earth Orbit - Communication - Satellites

MEO

Medium Earth Orbit - Navigation systems - GPS

OSINT

Open source intelligence involves the use of materials available to the public by intelligence agencies and other adversaries.

Stovepipes Problem

Separate and Independent sources. All want credit and do not share info

SIGINT

Signals intelligence is derived from signal intercepts comprising, either individually or in combination, all communications intelligence (COMINT), electronic intelligence (ELlNT), and foreign instrumentation signals intelligence (FISINT), however transmitted

Vacuum Cleaner Problem

Sucks everything up including unwanted info

Pendelum Swing

Swinging from one extreme to another with no balance

Wheat v Chaff

Turning a Mountain of Info into Intelligence

Reconnaissance

military observation of a region to locate an enemy or ascertain strategic features.

MASINT

scientific and technical intelligence information obtained by quantitative and qualitative analysis of data derived from specific technical sensors. - Radar, Nuclear, Infrared

Collection Swarm Ball

tendency of all collectors to collect on an unimportant issue to enhance their standing (re: budget allocation)

ISR

•Intelligence: A general term for collection •Surveillance: the systematic observation of a targeted area or group, usually for an extended period of time •Reconnaissance: a mission to acquire information about a target, sometimes meaning a one-time endeavor