Intelligence Analysis mid-term

What's in the critical thinking process?

-Differentiating between fact and opinion -Determining cause and effect relationship -Determining the accuracy and completeness of information presented -Recognizing logical fallacies and faulty reasoning -Developing inferential skills through deductive or inductive reasoning

Elements of caution in an analysis.

-Intelligence Analysis requires rigorous validation of sources and awareness of limitations -Intelligence is only as good as the input (GIGO: garbage in/garbage out) -Danger of 'false positives' (i.e. a suspect's family appears in SIGINT from telephone calls: does this mean the family are guilty by association?) -Beware of trusting sources with agendas (good guy/ bad guy syndrome)

The levels of restriction handling.

1.May be disseminated to other law enforcement and prosecuting agencies with no special conditions. 2.May be disseminated to other parties but authorisation and records needed. 3.May be disseminated to law enforcement agencies, but special conditions apply. 4.May be disseminated within the originating agency only. 5.No further dissemination: refer to the originator. Special handling requirements imposed by the officer who authorised collection.

What is a Geographical Information System (GIS)?

A database that provides a geographical context for data (e.g. Google Earth).

What is administrative analysis?

Administrative focuses on economic, geographic or social information. This information is usually provided to the client for administrative purposes. This information is usually "nice to know" and may be related to internal successes.

Definition of analysis.

An investigation of the component parts of a whole and their relations in making up the whole. It involves breaking down concepts and tasks into smaller units.

What is strategic analysis?

Analysis concerned with long term problems and projections. It examines the "big picture". Strategic reports may contain significant statistical data and indications of trends.

Examples of analytical tools.

Assessments, profiles, maps, event flow analysis, net-worth analysis.

How does deductive reasoning work?

By showing that a conclusion follows from a set of premises or hypotheses. It moves from theory to observations or findings.

The standards of critical thinking.

Clarity, Precision, Accuracy, Relevance, Consistency, Logical Correctness, Completeness, Fairness.

What is qualitative information?

Descriptive/ Viewpoint based E.G: Using interviews/workshops with offenders to assess the reasons for crime. E.G: Interviewing policy-makers to understand causes of the Iraq War

How do intelligence and evidence differ?

Detectives aim at meeting a specific legal standard and burden of proof, while intelligence rarely tries to prove anything; its main purpose is to inform officials and decision makers.

The correct order of the intelligence cycle.

Direction: Planning: Collection: Analysis: Dissemination.

Liaison/Intelligence Exchange is what?

Discussions and intelligence exchange between agencies (primarily from different governments). A source but also a skill. Can be seen as part of HUMINT.

What are the Five Types of Public Agencies Involved in Intelligence Analysis and Intelligence Collection?

Domestic Security Services, Foreign Intelligence Agencies, Signals Intelligence Agencies, Military Intelligence, Criminal Intelligence Agencies.

SWOT is used for what?

It's to analyze the risks and rewards involved in a decision or process. Origins. Helpful or harmful.

Examples of real intelligence failures.

January and November 2015 Paris Attacks, Robert Pickton inquiry.

Critical thinking: technical barriers.

Lack of relevant background information, poor reading skills.

What is quantitative information?

Numerical Data /Quantities: E.G: Studying the statistical relationship between crime and increases in unemployment.

The two types of information or data.

Quantitative and qualitative.

The two critical concepts for analysis.

Reliability of Source and the Evaluation of Reporting (Impact).

Scientific and Technical Intelligence is what?

Scientific and technical information (i.e. missiles, weapons, manuals, electronics etc.)

Critical thinking: social factors.

Sociocentrism (group-centered thinking), Groupthink, Peer pressure, Conformism, Stereotyping

SWOT stands for?

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats

What is tactical analysis?

Tactical analysis provides information to assist operational personnel. This aids in the identification of specific and immediate investigational problems and their solutions. Analytical data is used to provide a quick response to a current, ongoing problem.

What is critical thinking?

Thinking clearly and intelligently.

Three types of analytical tools.

Time, location and finance.

What is the 5 x 5 x 5 system for?

To test the reliability or accuracy of intelligence.

Why do intelligence Failures Occur?

•Information overload •Stove piping or silos of information •Failure to share information •Lack of situational awareness •Fog of war •Underestimating adversaries •Lack of resources or cultural or societal understanding

Why study intelligence failures?

•To analyse gaps in processes and procedures •To attempt to avert similar future occurrences •To continually remind security experts to be as diligent as possible •To assure/appease public and political groups •To better understand capabilities of adversaries and determine where we fall short