MAN4504

You have a small business selling the latest Xbox, sales from January through May are given in this table. Using the simple three-period moving average, what is the forecast for period 6? Period- 1 2 3 4 5 Value- 73 68 65 72 67 68 68.67 115 69 67

68, Average demand from periods 3 through 5.

Drone sales for the Tampa agent over the last 4 weeks are given in this table: Week: 1 2 3 4 Unit Sales: 700 724 720 728 What is the equation of the trend line and the predicted sales for week 6? 730 + 8t and 778 718 + 10t and 798 698 + 8t and 746 734 + 10t and 774

698 + 8t and 746

You have a business upgrading road bikes, Given the following business information, what is your efficiency?Effective capacity = 80 units per dayDesign capacity = 100 units per dayUtilization = 68 percent 68 percent 75 percent 78 percent 85 percent 65 percent

85 percent If utilization is 68 percent, then actual output must have been 68 units.

The Laplace approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest payoff. True False

False Laplace involves choosing the option with the best average.

The maximax approach is a strategy for the risk adverse. True False

False Maximax is a risk taker strategy.

Utilization is defined as the ratio of effective capacity to design capacity. True False

False Utilization is the ratio of output to design capacity.

MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) is equal to the square root of MSE (Mean Square Error). True False

False, MAD is the mean absolute deviation.

LP problems consists of the following components except Constraints Decision Variables Objective Function Negative constraints

Negative constraints

Your custom framing business has really taken off. You have been happy using a three-period weighted average to forecast demand.. Given weights for the three previous periods of: wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.5. and observed demand of: At-3 = 2,200, At-2 = 1,950, At-1 = 2,050. What will be the demand forecast for next period (referred to as period t)? 2,095 1,980 1,875 2,000 2,050

The forecast for will be (.2 * 2,200) + (.3 * 1,950) + (.5 * 2,050) = 2,050.

As the owner of a south Florida greenhouse and nursery you are considering whether to spend $6,000 to acquire the licensing rights to grow a new variety of avocado, which you can sell for $6 each. Per-unit variable cost would be $3. What would the profit be if you produced and sold 5,000 rosebushes? $0 $10,000 $9,000 $15,000 $30,000

Total revenue would be $30,000. Total cost (fixed = $6,000, variable = $15,000) would be $21,000.

Which of the following is not a basic layout type? fixed-position product process dual-line

dual-line

The time between failures for the Xbox is exponentially distributed with a mean of 40 months. What is the probability that the next failure will not occur before 4 years have elapsed? Hint: convert years to months in excess of .2 but not in excess of .3 in excess of .3 but not in excess of .4 in excess of .4 but not in excess of .6 in excess of .6 not in excess of .2

in excess of .3 but not in excess of .4 T/MTBF is 1.2. From the chart, the reliability is 0.3012.

Consider the following decision scenario for a local coffee house: Buy 30(Small) 60(Large) Rent 50(Small) 80(Large) Lease 20(Small) 60(Large) *PV for profits represented in ($000)The maximax strategy would be: lease. high. rent. buy. low.

rent. Rent has the best payoff scenario.

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing consists of the following two components. factors and cube roots exponential and square root smoothed error and trend factor errors and alpha

smoothed error and trend factor

At the break-even point: variable cost equals fixed cost. total cost equals total revenue. variable cost equals total revenue. total cost equals profit. output equals capacity.

total cost equals total revenue. At the break-even point, total profit (total revenue minus total cost) is zero.

If a line is balanced with 75 percent efficiency, the "balance delay" will be: depends on the next operation. 100 percent. unknown, since balance delay is not related to efficiency. 25 percent 80 percent

25 percent. Efficiency equals 100 percent minus balance delay.

The air fryer won't work if component QK fails. Current component QK's reliability is 0.95. Every other part of the appliance is 100 percent reliable. What is the reliability of the air fryer if you added a backup QK which had a reliability of .90? .95 .9025 .9975 .90 .995

.995 The reliability is .95 + [(1 - .95)*.90].

Palm Harbor Bagels produces two products: bagels (B) and croissants (C). Each bagel requires 6 ounces of flour, 1 gram of yeast, and 2 tablespoons of sugar. A croissant requires 3 ounces of flour, 1 gram of yeast, and 4 tablespoons of sugar. The company has 6,600 ounces of flour, 1,400 grams of yeast, and 4,800 tablespoons of sugar available for today's production run. Bagel profits are 25 cents each, and croissant profits are 35 cents each. What is the objective function? 0.25C+0.25C 0.25B+0.35C 35B+25C .35B+.25C

0.25B+0.35C

As the owner of a south Florida greenhouse and nursery you considering whether to spend $6,000 to acquire the licensing rights to grow a new variety of avocado, which you can then sell for $6 each. Per-unit variable cost would be $3. How many avocado trees do you need to produce and sell in order to make a profit of $9,000? 5,000 1,000 6,000 4,000 3,000

1,000 Add the desired profit of $9,000 to the fixed cost, then divide the sum by the per-unit contribution margin.

The production planner for St. Petersburg Fine Coffees, Inc., produces two coffee blends: American (A) and Canadian(C). Two of his resources are constrained: Columbia beans, of which he can get at most 300 pounds (4,800 ounces) per week Guatemalan beans, of which he can get at most 200 pounds (3,200 ounces) per week. Each pound of: American blend coffee requires 12 ounces of Colombian beans and 4 ounces of Guatemalan beans, Canadian blend coffee uses 8 ounces of each type of bean. Profits for the American blend are $2.00 per pound, and profits for the Canadian blend are $1.00 per pound. What is the Guatemalan bean constraint? 4A+8C<= 3,200 12A+8C <= 4,800 8A+4C <= 3,200 12A+8C <= 3,200

12A+8C <= 4,800

Which of the following could not be a linear programming problem constraint? 1A + 2B = 3 1A + 2B + 3C + 4D ≤ 5 1A + 2B ≥ 3 1A + 2B ≤ 3 1A + 2B

1A + 2B there is no left hand value

Your company is designing a product layout for Tampa Bay Sweets. It plans to use this production line eight hours a day in order to meet projected demand of 480 units per day. The tasks necessary to produce this product are: Task: u v w x y z Time in seconds: 30 30 6 12 54 30 Immediate Predecessor: None u u w x v,y If the company wants the output rate to be equal to demand, what is the minimum number of workstations needed? 3 4 7 6 5

3 Divide the summed task times by the minimum necessary cycle time. Round up to find the theoretical minimum.

Your company produces designer festival masks. The production line has three tasks. The task times are 3.2 minutes, 3.4 minutes, and 2.7 minutes. The minimum cycle time in minutes is: 3.2 1 2.7 9.3 3.4

3.4 The longest task time equals the minimum cycle time.

Your family business does the screen printing for Busch Gardens. Pretty impressive! What is the break-even quantity for the following situation? FC = $1,400 per weekVC = $2 per unitRevenue = $6 per unit 600 1,400 100 250 350

350 A volume of 350 units leads to $1,400 in margin to offset fixed costs.

The production planner for St. Petersburg Fine Coffees, Inc., produces two coffee blends: American (A) and Canadian(C). Two of his resources are constrained: Columbia beans, of which he can get at most 300 pounds (4,800 ounces) per week Guatemalan beans, of which he can get at most 200 pounds (3,200 ounces) per week. Each pound of: American blend coffee requires 12 ounces of Colombian beans and 4 ounces of Guatemalan beans, Canadian blend coffee uses 8 ounces of each type of bean. Profits for the American blend are $2.00 per pound, and profits for the Canadian blend are $1.00 per pound. Which of the following is not a feasible production combination? (That is we don't have enough coffee to meet production) 0 A and 400 C 400 A and 0 C 200 A and 300 C 400 A and 400C

400 A and 400C this is not feasible

Last month you forecasted to sell 64 home security camera systems, but actual demand was 59. Using an alpha of .3, forecast for next month using simple exponential smoothing? 36.9 60.5 57.5 65.5 62.5

62.5 Multiply the previous period's forecast error (-5) by alpha and then add to the previous period's forecast.

You own a cupcake company, Sweets, and you are considering buying a second oven for $1,000. The oven has a design capacity is 600 cupcakes per day, effective capacity is 500 cupcakes per day, and actual output is anticipated to be 400 cupcakes per day, what would be its utilization? Round your answer to closest 2 decimal places. 83 percent 100 percent 67 percent 75 percent 0 percent

67 percent Divide actual output by design capacity.

An idle percentage of zero means a line is perfectly balanced. True False

True All workstations would be occupied 100 percent of the time.

Reliability is the probability that a product or system will function when activated. True False

True The higher the probability, the more reliable the product or system.

Line balancing tasks are assigned to workstations so that each workstation has approximately equal time requirements. True False

True This is why it is called line balancing.

The term capacity refers to the maximum quantity an operating unit can process over a given period of time. True False

True An operation's capacity is defined as the maximum rate of output possible.

An advantage of a weighted moving average is that recent actual results can be given more importance than what occurred a while ago. True False

True, Weighted moving averages can be adjusted to make more recent data more important in setting the forecast.

Efficiency is defined as the ratio of: actual output to design capacity. design capacity to effective capacity. effective capacity to actual output. actual output to effective capacity. design capacity to actual output.

actual output to effective capacity. Efficiency measures the usage of effective capacity.

Your Ring Video Surveillance doorbell consists of two components, each of which must activate if the system is to activate. One component has a reliability of .99. The other has a reliability of .97. The components are independent of one another with respect to reliability. What is the overall system reliability? approximately .96 approximately .99 approximately .90 Cannot be determined with this information. approximately .94

approximately .96 The system reliability is the product of the two component reliabilities.

Your business installs home cinemas. The dilemma always is whether you build the systems from component pieces of build in-house. Given the following data for a make-or-buy decision: Buy: Fixed cost ($0 per year), Variable cost ($8 per unit) Make: Fixed cost ($100,000 per year), Variable cost ($4 per unit) For what range of output would you prefer to make? more than 50,000 more than 10,000 more than 25,000 more than 100,000

more than 25,000

Suppose your AC control unit fails, on average, every 10,000 hours. It takes an average of 700 hours to repair and reboot this unit. How much would the average repair/reboot time need to be reduced to increase availability by 5 percent (assuming the control unit's average life remains unchanged)? not more than 400 hours more than 600 hours but not more than 700 hours more than 500 hours but not more than 600 hours more than 400 hours but not more than 500 hours more than 700 hours

more than 500 hours but not more than 600 hours A 5 percent improvement in availability would result in availability being approximately 98.5 percent. To achieve such availability, assuming MTBF remains unchanged, would mean MTTR would have to be reduced by approximately 544 hours.