Mental Models

Single difference

-In analyzing causation, looking for a causal factor that is present in one situation but absent in another, similar, situation -Only those tourists who visited a given village were infected with a tropical disease; those who did not were disease-free

Common factor

-In analyzing causation, looking for a single shared factor -Tourists infected with a tropical disease all took the same flight

Questions of preference

-Subjective choice -No judgment or assessment -Many possible answers based on subjective preferences -Who is your favorite actor? -What color should we paint the living room?

Concomitant variation In

-analyzing causation, looking for a pattern of variation between a possible cause and a possible effect -Medical researchers expose laboratory animals to different strains of a tropical microbe to see which are likely to cause sickness

Fading affect bias

A bias in which the emotion associated with unpleasant memories fades more quickly than the emotion associated with positive events.

information asymmetry

A decision situation where one party has more or better information than its counterparty; any disparity in relevant market information among parties in a transaction

Case example

A detailed account of a person or event; a striking or dramatic anecdote

Buridan's Donkey

A donkey equally hungry and thirsty stuck between a bale of hay and water will die of starvation and thirst unable to make a decision between the two. However, a random nudge in one direction will solve the problem for him. Randomness can help with decision making and becoming unstuck, but when we try to reduce it, we lose that beneficial stressor.

Bandwagon

A fallacy which assumes that because something is popular, it is therefore good, correct, or desirable.

Intuition

A hunch, "gut feeling," or premonition

Inference

A logical process of drawing conclusions

Availability cascade

A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").

List-length effect

A smaller percentage of items are remembered in a longer list but as the length of the list increases the absolute number of items remembered increases as well.

Suffix Effect

A speech sound presented after the end of list will selectively hurt recall of last items

Worse-than-average effect

A tendency to believe ourselves to be worse than others at tasks which are difficult

Pareidolia

A vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) is perceived as significant; e.g. seeing images of animals or faces in clouds; the man in the moon; and hearing non-existent hidden messages on records played in reverse.

Egocentric myopia

Adopting an overly narrow point of view and thinking in absolutes

Change bias

After an investment of effort in producing change, remembering one's past performance as more difficult than it actually was

Change bias

After an investment of effort in producing change; remembering one's past performance as more difficult than it actually was.

Frequency illusion / Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon

After we learn new information we start noticing it everywhere.

Which of the following is not a drawback to using appeal to authority as a source of evidence?

An authority will often support the rival cause.

Ecosystems

An ecosystem describes any group of organisms coexisting with the natural world. Most ecosystems show diverse forms of life taking on different approaches to survival, with such pressures leading to varying behavior. Social systems can be seen in the same light as the physical ecosystems and many of the same conclusions can be made.

Belief bias

An effect where someone's evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by the believability of the conclusion.

An effective approach to correcting egocentric myopia would be to:

An effective approach to correcting egocentric myopia would be to consider points of view that conflict with ours.

Fallacy

An error in reasoning.

Extrinsic incentives bias

An exception to the fundamental attribution error; when people view others as having (situational) extrinsic motivations and (dispositional) intrinsic motivations for oneself

Intuition

An instinctive "knowing" (e.g., a hunch or gut feeling) that does not derive from a rational intellectual process

Personal Incredulity

Arguing that because something is difficult to understand it must necessarily be untrue.

The Green Lumber Fallacy example 2-Thales

Aristotle explains that Thales reserved presses ahead of the olive harvest at a discount only to rent them out at a high price when demand peaked, following his predictions of a particularly good harvest. Aristotle attributes Thales' success to his ability to correctly forecast the weather. However, it was not his ability to forecast that made Thales successful but that "Thales put himself in a position to take advantage of his lack of knowledge... that he did not need to understand too much the messages from the stars... that was the very first option on record".

begging the question

Asserting a conclusion that is assumed in the reasoning. The reason given to support the conclusion restates the conclusion.

Defensive attribution hypothesis

Attributing more blame to a harm-doer as the outcome becomes more severe or as personal or situational similarity to the victim increases.

Evaluating information 5 key factors

Authority Point of view Transparency Scope and depth Accuracy

Authority-Misinfluence Tendency

Authority power is when you get someone to do something because you have power over them. Mom to son, or success people suggestions Following orders just because someone says so.

Evading questions fallacy

Avoiding direct and truthful answers to difficult questions through diversionary tactics, vagueness, or deliberately confusing or complex responses.

evading questions

Avoiding direct and truthful answers to difficult questions through diversionary tactics, vagueness, or deliberately confusing or complex responses.

Exaggerated expectation

Based on the estimates, real-world evidence turns out to be less extreme than our expectations (conditionally inverse of the conservatism bias).

Exaggerated expectation

Based on the estimates, real-world evidence turns out to be less extreme than our expectations (conditionally inverse of the conservatism bias).[unreliable source?][23][34]

Procrasinate

Because of the things that seem easy and fun, or inside your comfort zone. You would do that first. And you would leave the harder task for later which is almost until the due date. Set dates and deadlines to make it impossible for your future self to sabotage the plan your self now make. You future self cannot be trusted

20: Maneuver them into weakness: Ripening for the sickle Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Before the battle begins, put your opponent in a position of such weakness that victory is easy and quick. Create dilemmas where all potential choices are bad.

When is the optimal time for a learner to apply the Elements of Reasoning to the logic of a subject?

Before the learner has begun his or her course of study

Precision

Being precise or exact

Clarity

Being unambiguous and easily understood

"The union has a number of legitimate grievances which have never been addressed by management. If you talk to any of the workers involved in these disputes, it's clear that their testimony has been ignored." Is this information fairly gathered and reported or biased?

Biased Correct. This is an example of biased information. While the union point of view is represented, management's POV is not.

Bizarreness effect

Bizarre material is better remembered than common material.

10: Create a threatening presence: Deterrence Strategy DEFENSIVE WARFARE

Build a reputation for being a little crazy. Fighting you is not worth it. Uncertainty can be better than an explicit threat. If your opponents aren't sure what attacking you will cost, they will not want to find out.

There are six steps in the scientific method: 1) Ask a question; 2) Conduct background research; 3) Construct a hypothesis; 4) Test this hypothesis through experiment(s); 5) Analyze the data and draw a conclusion; and 6) Communicate results." Is this information clear or unclear?

CLEAR

Confidence in Reason

Characterization Proceeds from the belief that both the individual's and society's higher interests are best served by unfettered reason Encourages people to arrive at their own conclusions through their own powers of rational thinking Faith that we can learn to: think for ourselves reach well-informed viewpoints draw reasonable conclusions think clearly, accurately, relevantly, and logically persuade one another through sound reasoning and evidence be reasonable despite fundamental barriers to reasonableness in human nature and social life Its Opposite Intellectual distrust of reason Lack of confidence in reason Inclines us to assert the truth of our own beliefs, flawed though they might be relationship to Fair-Mindedness Fair-mindedness is impossible if one does not appreciate the importance of reason One cannot be fair-minded if one won't seriously consider sound reasoning with which one disagrees

Intellectual Autonomy

Characterization Thinking for oneself while adhering to standards of rationality Hallmarks Reasoning through issues on one's own rather than uncritically accept others' viewpoints Relying on one's own reasoning when deciding what to or what not to believe Accepting others' views only so far as they are reasonable in light of the evidence Its Opposite Intellectual conformity Intellectual dependence Society rewards conformity of thought, which perpetuates the status quo (political, economic, or intellectual), while providing scant incentive for true intellectual autonomy Relationship to Fair-Mindedness Fair-mindedness isn't possible without intellectual autonomy because reasoning things out from others' vantage points requires independent thinking

Treating abstracts as reality fallacy

Citing abstract concepts (freedom, justice, science) to support an argument or to call for action.

treating abstracts as reality

Citing abstract concepts (freedom, justice, science) to support an argument or to call for action.

Distinctions between the elements of reasoning are_______ not ________

Relative/Absolute

Argumentum verbosium

See Proof by verbosity, below.

Sociocentrism

The belief that one's own society or group is superior to others

22: Know how to end things: Exit Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

You are judged by how well things conclude. Know when to stop. Avoid all conflicts and entanglements from which there are no realistic exits.

Equivocation: Ambiguous middle term

a common ambiguity in syllogisms in which the middle term is equivocated.

Verbatim effect

that the "gist" of what someone has said is better remembered than the verbatim wording (Poppenk, Walia, Joanisse, Danckert, & Köhler, 2006).

Zeigarnik effect

that uncompleted or interrupted tasks are remembered better than completed ones.

sociocentrism

the assumption that one's own social group is inherently superior to all others

Consequentialism

the doctrine that the morality of an action is to be judged solely by its consequences.

illusion of control

the false belief that one can influence certain events, especially random or chance ones

fear of missing out (FOMO)

the fear that others are engaging in activities without them; inability to disengage from social networking for fear of missing something

cross-race effect

the finding that recognition memory for same-race faces is more accurate than for other-race faces

proximate cause

the last (negligent) act which leads to injury; legal cause; as opposed to root cause

The barbell demonstrates an "antifragile balance

" the idea of two extremes kept separate, with avoidance in the middle.

Appeal to Emotion

Occurs when emotions or emotionally-charged language is used in an attempt to persuade the reader. Using manipulative emotion instead of valid argument to convince.

Goldilocks Bias

The perfect solution is necessarily in the middle of two opposing viewpoints

Post-purchase rationalization / Choice-supportive bias

We retroactively assign positive attributues to a purchase we just made.

Conservatism

We revise our beliefs insufficiently when presented with new evidence

Critical thinking is characteristically:

self-directed self-disciplined self-monitored self-corrective

Less-is-better effect

The tendency to prefer a smaller set to a larger set judged separately, but not jointly

Semmelweis reflex

The tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm.

Context effect

that cognition and memory are dependent on context, such that out-of-context memories are more difficult to retrieve than in-context memories (e.g., recall time and accuracy for a work-related memory will be lower at home, and vice versa).

regression toward the mean

the tendency for extreme or unusual scores to regress toward their average

Taleb points out numerous problems with modern life

mostly arising from removing the natural stressors that help us.

"If humans fight the last war

nature fights the next one."

False authority (single authority)

using an expert of dubious credentials or using only one opinion to sell a product or idea. Related to the appeal to authority fallacy.

Kettle logic

using multiple, jointly inconsistent arguments to defend a position.

Argument from silence (argumentum ex silentio)

where the conclusion is based on the absence of evidence, rather than the existence of evidence.

Conservatism

(Bayesian) The tendency to revise one's belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence.

Hot-hand fallacy

The "hot-hand fallacy" (also known as the "hot hand phenomenon" or "hot hand") is the fallacious belief that a person who has experienced success has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts.

27: Seem to work for the interests of others while furthering your own: Alliance Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Get others to compensate for your deficiencies, do your dirty work, fight your wars. Sow dissension in the alliances of others, weakening opponents by isolating them.

Accuracy

Being near to the true value or meaning of something 8

Self Fulfilling prophecies

If you believe a hypothetical event will happen, you will act as if it happening and the behavior will result in that hypothetical event.

Not invented here

Aversion to contact with or use of products, research, standards, or knowledge developed outside a group. Related to IKEA effect.

Hard-easy effect

Based on a specific level of task difficulty, the confidence in judgments is too conservative and not extreme enough

Hard-easy effect

Based on a specific level of task difficulty, the confidence in judgments is too conservative and not extreme enough.

Picture superiority effect

We remember images more than words.

Theories are examples of:

CONCEPTS

Essentialism

Categorizing people and things according to their essential nature, in spite of variations.

Essentialism

Categorizing people and things according to their essential nature; in spite of variations.

Weber-Fechner law

Difficulty in comparing small differences in large quantities.

Brand loyalty

Fanboys will come up with excuses to berate other plans. Maybe because of their sunk cost in the brand or because of mere influences.

Intellectual traits

Intellectual Humility Intellectual Autonomy Intellectual Integrity Intellectual Courage Intellectual Perseverance Confidence in Reason Intellectual Empathy Fair mindedness

9: Turn the tables: Counterattack Strategy DEFENSIVE WARFARE

Let the other side move first. If aggressive, bait them into a rash attack that leaves them in a weak position.

The Principle of Parsimony (Occam's Razor)

Named after the friar William of Ockham, Occam's Razor is a heuristic by which we select among competing explanations. Ockham stated that we should prefer the simplest explanation with the least moving parts: it is easier to falsify (see: Falsification), easier to understand, and more likely, on average, to be correct. This principle is not an iron law but a tendency and a mindset: If all else is equal, it's more likely that the simple solution suffices. Of course, we also keep in mind Einstein's famous idea (even if apocryphal) that "an idea should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler."

Illusion of external agency

We search for and hold onto the most rewarding view of an event.

Universal ethical standards

Principles for correct human behavior acknowledged by reasonable people

Denying inconsistencies fallacy

Refusing to admit contradictions or inconsistencies when making an argument or defending a position.

Egocentric memory

Remembering only that evidence and information that supports our thinking

spacing (distributed study) effect

Superior long-term memory for spaced study versus massed study (cramming).

Feeling

Tells us how we are doing happy sad depressed anxious stressed calm worried excited

Point of view

The particular perspective from which something is observed or thought through

Small stresses build up strength

While we understand the benefits of stress in medicine and health we fail to carry it over to other parts of life. Small stresses on your income can be good for keeping you from accumulating silent risk or becoming cocky. Small fights in your relationship can help it become stronger, and avoid big fights.

Statistics involves

collecting, organizing, and analyzing data.

Social

economic and cultural life lie in the Black Swan domain - trying to predict that is being a turkey predicting its fate (with stable but absolutely incorrect info).

Analogy

Inference that if 2 things are alike in one respect, they will be alike in other respects

Whenever we think, we think for a purpose within a point of view based on assumptions leading to implications and consequences. We use concepts and theories to interpret data, facts, and experiences to answer questions, solve problems, and resolve issues. Here are all the elements listed separately:

1. All thinking has a purpose or goal. 2. All thinking raises at least one question. 3. All thinking requires information. 4. All thinking requires concepts. 5. All thinking involves inferences. 6. All thinking involves assumptions. 7. All thinking involves implications. 8. All thinking involves a point of view.

Circle of Competence

An idea introduced by Warren Buffett and Charles Munger in relation to investing: each individual tends to have an area or areas in which they really, truly know their stuff, their area of special competence. Areas not inside that circle are problematic because not only are we ignorant about them, but we may also be ignorant of our own ignorance. Thus, when we're making decisions, it becomes important to define and attend to our special circle, so as to act accordingly.

Sources of Evidence

Analogy Intuition Personal observation Appeal to authority Case example Testimonial Survey/questionnaire Research study Personal experience

Statistics

The science of collecting, organizing, and analyzing quantitative data

Peter Principle

The selection of a candidate for a position is based on the candidate's performance in their current role, rather than on abilities relevant to the intended role. Thus, employees only stop being promoted once they can no longer perform effectively, and 'managers rise to the level of their incompetence.

selection bias

The selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analyzed.

Which of the following correctly reflects the relationship between the standards of thinking, the elements of thinking, and intellectual traits?

The standards must be applied to the elements as the critical thinker learns to develop intellectual traits.

The third story

The story one an impartial observer, such as a mediator, would tell; it's a version of events both sides can agree on.

Lesson 2: An antifragile system usually consists of many fragile parts

There are quite a few more good examples of antifragile systems, one being the evolutionary process. Evolution itself is incredibly antifragile - we've evolved from our ancestors based on the genetic features and traits which helped us survive the most and succeed. However, that also meant many humans before us had to die.

Implication

What logically follows from reasoning

thinking and content are related:

What this means in practice is that thinking through content is the key to learning, understanding and applying knowledge.

Personal experience

What we experience; what we ourselves do or go through

Personal observation

What we see first hand

Fading affect bias

a bias in which the emotion associated with unpleasant memories fades more quickly than the emotion associated with positive events.

Focusing effect

a bias in which we emphasize some pieces of information while undervaluing other pieces

black box

a device, system or object which can be viewed in terms of its inputs and outputs (or transfer characteristics), without any knowledge of its internal workings. Its implementation is 'opaque' (black)

Reification (hypostatization)

a fallacy of ambiguity, when an abstraction (abstract belief or hypothetical construct) is treated as if it were a concrete, real event or physical entity. In other words, it is the error of treating as a "real thing" something that is not a real thing, but merely an idea.

unforced error

a point lost by your mistake rather than caused by the difficulty of your opponent's shot

lateral thinking

a process used to solve problems and generate ideas in purposely illogical ways; outside the box

Proof by assertion

a proposition is repeatedly restated regardless of contradiction; sometimes confused with argument from repetition a.k.a. argumentum ad infinitum

Statistics based on imprecise reporting is known as:

a. a best guess b. an opinion c. an approximation Statistics based on imprecise reporting is known as a best guess, an approximation, and also an opinion.

Risk reduction can be expressed in _______ and ________ terms.

a. relative / absolute Yes, the correct answer is a. Risk reduction can be expressed in relative and absolute terms. b. ratio / index c. qualitative / quantitative d. none of the above

Definitional retreat

changing the meaning of a word to deal with an objection raised against the original wording.

"Reasoning can only be as sound as the ________________ it is based on."

information

Begging the question (petitio principii)

providing what is essentially the conclusion of the argument as a premise.

For statistical data to be valid, the sample must be _______ and sufficiently ________.

random / large

Those from whom we benefit aren't those who have tried to help us

rather those who have tried, and eventually failed, to harm us.

Another term used to describe egocentric thinking is:

rigidity of thought

False dilemma (false dichotomy, fallacy of bifurcation, black-or-white fallacy)

two alternative statements are held to be the only possible options, when in reality there are more.

There is a class of things

typically technology, where we're obsessed by having the newest version of it. But for classical art, literature, works that have endured, older tends to be better. You likely replace your phone every 2 years, but not the painting on your wall.

Make sure you are barbelled

whatever that means in your business

Reasoning that is specific, exact and sufficiently detailed is said to be:

Precise

generation effect

generating material yourself, rather than passively receiving it, enhances learning and retention

HOW THE PARTS OF THINKING FIT TOGETHER

-our purpose affects the manner in which we ask questions; --the manner in which we ask questions affects the information we gather; - the information we gather affects the way we interpret it; - the way we interpret information affects the way we conceptualize it; - the way we conceptualize information affects the assumptions we make; - the assumptions we make affect the implications that follow from our thinking; -the implications that follow from our thinking affect the way we see things—our point of view.

Bias

A partiality or prejudice that prevents objective consideration of an issue or situation.

Minimum viable product

A product with just enough features to gather validated learning about the product and its continued development.

Survey

A research method or instrument for measuring people's attitudes or beliefs

Pareidolia

A vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) is perceived as significant, e.g., seeing images of animals or faces in clouds, the man in the moon, and hearing non-existent hidden messages on records played in reverse.

Which of the following statements is false?

A. All reasoning has a purpose. B. All reasoning occurs from a point of view. C. All reasoning has implications. D. None of the above D, Correct. All of the statements listed above are true.

Availability-Misweighing Tendency

Always have it available, if you don't you will lose customers. If you website is too hard to read or things that take too much energy to do, then you will not attract customers We overweight what's easily available. A checklist or set of rules can help with this tendency.

Statistics express information in numerical form.

Among the common statistical forms are averages, percentages, ratios, and rates.

search for perfect solution

Asserting that a solution is not worth adopting because it does not fix the problem completely.

8: Pick your battles carefully: Perfect-economy Strategy DEFENSIVE WARFARE

Consider the hidden costs of war: time, political goodwill, an embittered enemy bent on revenge. Sometimes it is better to undermine your enemies covertly.

Egocentric blindness

Description Not seeing facts and evidence that contradict our thinking Ways to correct Seeking out facts and evidence that challenge our thinking

Qualitative evidence

Evidence that describes an observation or phenomenon and communicates its meaning

Which of the mind's basic functions evaluates the extent to which life's events are either positive or negative?

Feeling evaluates the extent to which life's events are either positive or negative.

12: Lose battles, but win the war: Grand Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Grand strategy is the art of looking beyond the present battle and calculating ahead. Focus on your ultimate goal and plot to reach it.

In strategic thinking, recognizing when your thinking is irrational or flawed is which component?

Identification is recognizing when your thinking is irrational or flawed.

Ostrich effect

Ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.

Egocentric hypocrisy

Ignoring inconsistencies between belief and behavior and between public standards and private actions

Hard-cruel-world argument

Justifying illegal or unethical practices by arguing that they are necessary to confront a greater evil or threat.

hard-cruel-world argument

Justifying illegal or unethical practices by arguing that they are necessary to confront a greater evil or threat.

3: Amidst the turmoil of events, do not lose your presence of mind: Counterbalance Strategy SELF-DIRECTED WARFARE

Keep your presence of mind whatever the circumstances. Make your mind tougher by exposing it to adversity. Learn to detach yourself from the chaos of the battlefield.

technical definition of fragility

Likewise fragility is defined as a concave sensitivity to stressors, leading a negative sensitivity to increase in volatility.

Which of the following graphical forms is well suited to summarizing time series data?

Line graph

23: Weave a seamless blend of fact and fiction: Misperception Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Make it hard for your enemies to know what is going on around them. Feed their expectations, manufacture a reality to match their desires, and they will fool themselves. Control people's perceptions of reality and you control them.

Thinking

Makes sense of the world judging perceiving analyzing clarifying determining comparing synthesizing

Conformity

People conform to other authority power even if it doesn't make sense.

Drug-Misinfluence Tendency

People will misjudge or buy things if they're under influence of drugs. Impaired judgment due to drugs

The Fallacy Fallacy

Presuming that because a claim has been poorly argued, or a fallacy has been made, that the conclusion is necessarily wrong.

A question with one correct answer

Question of fact

In constructing questions of judgment, which of the following is NOT part of the process?

Questions that have only one answer are questions of fact, not questions of judgment.

11: Trade space for time: Nonengagement Strategy DEFENSIVE WARFARE

Retreat is a sign of strength. Resisting the temptation to respond buys valuable time. Sometimes you accomplish most by doing nothing.

Rhyme as reason effect

Rhyming statements are perceived as more truthful. A famous example being used in the O.J Simpson trial with the defense's use of the phrase "If the gloves don't fit, then you must acquit."

Attacking evidence fallacy

Seeking to falsely discredit the underlying evidence for an argument and thereby questioning its validity.

32: Dominate while seeming to submit: Passive-Aggression Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Seem to go along, offering no resistance, but actually dominate the situation. Disguise your aggression so you can deny that it exists.

straw man

Senator Smith suggests that the only defense against the threat of terrorism is to strip us of our civil liberties and turn our society into a police state.

Von Restorff effect

That an item that sticks out is more likely to be remembered than other items

Verbatim effect

That the "gist" of what someone has said is better remembered than the verbatim wording. This is because memories are representations, not exact copies.

Mean

The average derived by adding up all the values and dividing the sum by the total number of values

Group attribution error

The biased belief that the characteristics of an individual group member are reflective of the group as a whole or the tendency to assume that group decision outcomes reflect the preferences of group members; even when information is available that clearly suggests otherwise.

Purpose

The goal or objective of reasoning

The _______ is the value that appears most frequently in a dataset.

The mode is the value that appears most frequently in a dataset.

Reminiscence bump

The recalling of more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than personal events from other lifetime periods

Normalcy bias

The refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.

Cross-race effect

The tendency for people of one race to have difficulty identifying members of a race other than their own.

Ambiguity effect

The tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown."

The moment

There are multiple selves in you, to make both of them pleasant you need to keep seeking and doing new activity to make experiencing self happy. And eventually your remember self can become happy and keep working for money to have the opportunity to keep doing exciting things

attacking evidence

This approach focuses on discrediting the underlying evidence for an argument and thereby questioning its validity.

To analyze the logic of an article, one can apply:

To analyze the logic of an article, one can apply the Elements of Reasoning.

Assumptions

Unstated or hidden beliefs that support our explicit reasoning

Denomination effect

We are less likely to spend larger bills than the equivalent value in smaller bills.

Which of the following statements does NOT conform to Paul and Elder's foundations of ethical reasoning?

We can pick and choose our ethical principles.

Subjective validation

We consider information to be correct if it has any personal meaning or significance to us

Mere exposure effect

We develop a preference for things because we are familiar with them.

Distinction bias

We observe more differences if we compare two products at the same time vs. separately.

Restraint bias

We overestimate our ability to control impulsive behavior.

Illusion of asymmetric insight

We think we perceive more about other people than they perceive about us.

Empathy gap

We underestimate how much visceral drives influence our attitudes, preferences, and behaviors.

Curse of knowledge

When better-informed people find it extremely difficult to think about problems from the perspective of lesser-informed people.

Backfire effect

When people react to disconfirming evidence by strengthening their beliefs.

Apophenia

You often only react to coincidences and think it is a sign. In reality, coincidence happens everyday. However, people only pay attention to things happens more than once.

Confirmation bias

You only look for the thing that you remember currently. Ex: You want a particular shoes, and you scrolling through facebook and ignores all the other shoes that pop up until you see the shoe you want.

The fundamental attribution error

You switch from extrovert to introvert or charismatic to impish, etc.. Based on who you're currently looking up to. Just remember first impression are mostly misrepresentative of their personality, until you get to know their situation and circumstances of which their behavior generate. Then judge whether you fit with that person or not.

The representativeness heuristic

You tend to jump to conclusion based on the representative of the factors (background, personality, etc...)

The misinformation effect

You think you can remember perfectly certain memory point, but no! Try to remember the last movie you seen and perfectly play a particular scene in that movie in your mind.

Self handicapping

You will protect your ego and intentionally fail the next test if the previous result compliment you.

Social loafing

You will tend to put in less effort in a group because people couldn't analyze your performance. You will put more effort when ur alone or in pair of two.

Expectation

You wont be able to evaluate if things were good such as $5 vs$500 wines. It is all depends on the aesthetic of the product.

Priming

Your behavior and action will be decided related to your past or surrounding when youre in a unconscious mind.

Extinction burst

Your brain will make a desperate attempt to go back to the used to be routinely step such as eating junk foods while you're on diet.

Attention

Your vision can only focus on as large of the vision filed can and everything else you will not pay attention to.

ad hominem

a fallacy that attacks the person rather than dealing with the real issue in dispute; Directed to or appealing to feelings or prejudices instead of to intellect or reason

appeal to novelty

a fallacy which assumes that something new is automatically better than something old

deliberate practice

a method of carrying out carefully focused efforts to improve current performance, as opposed to the 10,000 hours rule

divergent thinking

a type of creative thinking in which one generates new solutions to problems

escalation of commitment bias

an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence it may have been wrong

Citing majority sentiment or popular opinion as the reason for supporting a claim is an example of:

appeal to popularity

Regression fallacy

ascribes cause where none exists. The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations. It is frequently a special kind of the post hoc fallacy.

illusion of explanatory depth

big and complicated things we pretend to understand but actually don't - I'm Right for Some Reason

Fair mindedness yields many intellectual virtues

consider all thinking by the same standards expect good reasoning from supporters as well as from opponents apply the same critical criteria to our own logic as to others' reasoning recognize the actual strengths and weaknesses of any reasoning we assess

Deal with your ego

consider daily questions like the following: Did I behave irrationally in order to get my way? Did I try to impose my will on others? Did small things make me irritable?

convergent thinking

follows a particular set of logical steps to arrive at one solution, which in some cases is a 'correct' solution

price elasticity

how responsive, sensitive demand will be to a change in price

Dunning-Kruger Effect

humans tend to overestimate the amount they know

He specifies though that iatrogenics is only a concern when someone is not terminal. IF they are at risk of death

iatrogenics don't matter, it's the little unnecessary interventions that are problematic.

"I would add that

in my own experience, a considerable jump in my personal health has been achieved by removing offensive irritants: the morning newspapers (the mere mention of the names of the fragilista journalists Thomas Friedman or Paul Krugman can lead to explosive bouts of unrequited anger on my part), the boss, the daily commute, air-conditioning (though not heating), television, emails from documentary filmmakers, economic forecasts, news about the stock market, gym "strength training" machines, and many more."

Incomplete comparison

in which insufficient information is provided to make a complete comparison.

When faced with a variable 'x' in life

it is much easier to understand and modify f(x), the impact of it on your, rather than to understand x itself. Predicting how x will vary is useless. Instead try to apply the barbell transformation to f(x) - so you have more benefits on the upside and cap the downside.

Excess intervention (as a promoter of fragility) - it depletes mental and economic resources

it is rarely available when it is needed the most.

Taleb points out that procrastination is not always bad

it is something deep within us that is able to identify the urgency of a problem. We don't procrastinate when a lion is attacking, but procrastinating responding to an email is probably fine.

More examples: "Do crazy things (break furniture once in a while)

like the Greeks during the later stages of a drinking symposium, and stay "rational" in larger decisions. Trashy gossip magazines and classics or sophisticated works; never middlebrow stuff. Talk to either undergraduate students, cab drivers, and gardeners or the highest caliber scholars; never to middling-but-career-conscious academics. If you dislike someone, leave him alone or eliminate him; don't attack him verbally."

Irrational Escalation

making irrational decisions to justify actions already taken

Only a fool would think that the tallest mountain in the world is the tallest one that she has visited. However

most humans base their assumptions of the worst case on the worst case that they have seen or heard of in the past.

Time brings about disorder - anything time-tested is worthwhile. If you pick a school textbook

most likely any concept you pick in there is still relevant in your life. Meanwhile, papers from a conference of 5 years ago may have been obsoleted.

levels of processing theory

proposes that deeper levels of processing result in longer-lasting memory codes

Another term for critical thinking is:

second-order thinking

Appeal to wealth (argumentum ad crumenam)

supporting a conclusion because the arguer is wealthy (or refuting because the arguer is poor). (Sometimes taken together with the appeal to poverty as a general appeal to the arguer's financial situation.)

Don't get on a plane without a pilot. For any venture

the person advocating it or influencing you must have skin in the game.

If you have favorable asymmetries or positive convexity

then in the long run you will do reasonably well outperforming the average in the presence of uncertainty!

Circular cause and consequence

where the consequence of the phenomenon is claimed to be its root cause.

He also points out how real language learning is done "in the wild

" suffering embarrassment for not knowing things and struggling to be understood. It is not done through textbooks and tests, as is evident by any child learning their first language(s).

One form of this is "teaching birds how to fly

" where Taleb points out that a Harvard ornithological department could explain the mathematics of flight and how birds wings work, but the birds do not need to understand that in order to fly.

Paradox of Choice

"Eliminating consumer choices can greatly reduce anxiety for shoppers." (related: Hick's Law, "increasing the number of choices will increase the decision time logarithmically.")

Loss aversion

"the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it". (see also Sunk cost effects and endowment effect).

The Turkey Problem

"the turkey problem" is how you can imagine a turkey raised and fed from birth, becoming more sure every day that it will continue to be well fed and taken care of, based on its past evidence, right up until Thanksgiving.

implicit associations

"unconscious" prejudices that you don't even realize you have

Scomporre un problema

(1) identifying the problem (2) structuring the problem (making sure all the issues are covered by using a MECE, mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, approach), (3) prioritizing and eliminating unnecessary problems, (4) creating the analysis and work plan, (5) conducting the analysis, (6) synthesizing to derive meaningful results, (7) delivering the right communication message

Generation effect

(Self-generation effect) That self-generated information is remembered best. For instance; people are better able to recall memories of statements that they have generated than similar statements generated by others.

Forer effect

(or Barnum effect) The observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them; but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology; fortune telling; graphology and some types of personality tests.

Inert Information

-"Taking into the mind information, that, though memorized, we do not understand." -We think we understand this information, but we don't and can't use it. -Memorizing the Gettysburg Address or the Pledge of Allegiance to the flag without understanding them Repeating undefined political slogans like "power to the people," "taking back our country," or "the American way of life" without thinking about whether they have any meaning.

Mill's approach can help in developing a causal claim for an event or happening. Some simple causal claims are:

-Above average rainfall causes flooding of the river. -Infant vaccination causes (does not cause) autism in children. -Homeowners being laid off causes an increase in foreclosures.

Critical thinking comprises three interlinking dimensions:

-Analyzing one's own thinking- breaking it down into its component parts. -Evaluating one's own thinking- identifying its weaknesses while recognizing its strengths. -Improving one's own thinking- reconstructing it to make it better.

Taleb uses ancient examples to explain the triad of Fragile, Robust, and Antifragile.- Damocles,Phoenix, Hydra

-Damocles, who dines with a sword dangling over his head, is fragile. A small stress to the string holding the sword will kill him. -The Phoenix which dies and is reborn from its ashes, is robust. It always returns to the same state when suffering a massive stressor. -But the Hydra demonstrates Antifragility. When one head is cut off two grow back.

Becoming an Informed/Critical News Consumer

-Democracy depends on an informed citizenry, and it is vital that citizens recognize bias, slanting, and propaganda in news coverage; -Any set of events can be viewed and interpreted from multiple points of view. News consumers should be open to a range of viewpoints and to question their own. -To achieve objectivity, one must distinguish between facts and opinion/spin. -Two genuine forms of objectivity are "the objectivity of intellectual humility" (knowledge of one's own ignorance) and "the objectivity of fair-minded, multi-dimensional thinking." -An inauthentic version is "sophistic objectivity" where multiple viewpoints are considered and then dismissed to protect the status quo. -The major media fosters sociocentric thinking, reflecting national and cultural bias. (Sociocentrism is seeing social conventions, beliefs and taboos of your society as "the only correct way to live and think," according to Paul and Elder.) -There is a bias in the mainstream news media towards reporting what is novel, strange, or sensational. This leads to news reporting which ignores important stories while the sensational is blown out of proportion.

Questions of judgment

-Evidence and reasoning within multiple systems -Competing answers -Reasoned judgment -More than one answer, with some better than others -How can we deal with global warming? -What is the best way to improve elementary school education?

Questions of fact

-Evidence and reasoning within single system -Serve as basis of knowledge -Only one correct answer -Who wrote the Harry Potter books?

Dimensions of Problem-Solving THERE ARE SEVEN

-Figure out and regularly reevaluate your goals, purposes, and needs. -Identify your problems explicitly, then analyze them. -Figure out the information you need, and actively seek that information. -Carefully analyze, interpret, and evaluate the information you collect. -Figure out your options for action and evaluate them. -Adopt a strategic approach to the problem, and follow through on that strategy. -When you act, monitor the implications of your action as they begin to emerge.

Dimensions of Decision-Making THERE ARE 9

-Figure out, and regularly rearticulate, your most fundamental goals, purposes, and needs. -Take problems and decisions one-by-one. -Figure out the implications of alternatives. -Figure out the information you need and seek it. -Draw reasonable inferences from the information you analyze and interpret. -Figure out long- and short-term options and limitations (time, money, power). -Consider pros and cons of options. -Be strategic in your decision-making. -Monitor the implications of your actions and shift strategy if need be.

Process of elimination

-In analyzing causation, successively ruling out non-causal factors until one correct causal factor remains -To figure out why tourists were sick, blood tests ruled out five different diseases and singled out one tropical microbe that was causing the sickness

Three Types of Questions

-The first category, questions of fact, have definitive answers. -The second category, questions of preference, have a range of potential answers, which reflect personal and subjective views on a topic. -The third, questions of judgment, have more than one reasoned answer, but some answers are better than others.

An average of numbers can be expressed 3 different ways:

-The mean is derived by adding up all the values and dividing the sum by the total number of values -The median represents the middle value in a series of values; half of the values are above it, and half are below it -The mode is the value that appears most frequently in a series of values

A key to developing questions of judgment is to remember: .

-These will be questions that could be answered differently by people with different view points, and; -Among competing answers, there may be one that is the best (based on the intellectual standards outlined by Paul and Elder). -A question of judgment does not have one correct answer, but a number of well-reasoned answers

Characteristics of an Advanced Thinker (Paul and Elder)

-Understanding the role of critical thinking in the quality of life and the relationship among thoughts, feelings, and desires -Monitoring thoughts, feelings, desires -Employing strategies for improving critical thinking and critiques of progress in improvement -Developing new habits of thought and sensitivity to inconsistency and contradictions -Embracing intellectual integrity intellectual empathy intellectual courage

How Inferences Relate to Assumptions

-You see traffic at a dead halt in front of you on the highway. -There was an accident ahead. (inference) -Accidents invariably are responsible for bumper-to-bumper traffic jams. (Assumptions) The phone rings in the middle of the night. It must be bad news. (inference) Midnight calls always deliver bad news. (assumption) You see dark clouds forming. It's going to rain. (inference) Dark clouds always presage a rainstorm. (assumption)

How do critical thinkers approach the news as a source of information and avoid being manipulated?

-looking at events from multiple perspectives. -assessing news stories for clarity, accuracy, relevance, depth, breadth, and significance. -noticing the contradictions and inconsistencies, questionable implicit assumptions, and disputed facts in stories. -questioning the sociocentrism in media accounts.

Law 38 Think as you like but Behave like others If you make a show of going against the times, flaunting your unconventional ideas and unorthodox ways, people will think that you only want attention and that you look down upon them. They will find a way to punish you for making them feel inferior. It is far safer to blend in and nurture the common touch. Share your originality only with tolerant friends and those who are sure to appreciate your uniqueness. 38

...

According to Paul and Elder, intellectual action requires figuring out:

1) what is going on in a situation; 2) options for action; 3) a justification for choosing an option; 4) ways to reduce the impact of irrational thinking.

Bottlenecks

A bottleneck describes the place at which a flow (of a tangible or intangible) is stopped, thus holding it back from continuous movement. As with a clogged artery or a blocked drain, a bottleneck in production of any good or service can be small but have a disproportionate impact if it is in the critical path.

Conservatism or regressive bias

A certain state of mind wherein high values and high likelihoods are overestimated while low values and low likelihoods are underestimated.

Regressive bias

A certain state of mind wherein high values and high likelihoods are overestimated while low values and low likelihoods are underestimated.

Complex Adaptive Systems

A complex adaptive system, as distinguished from a complex system in general, is one that can understand itself and change based on that understanding. Complex adaptive systems are social systems. The difference is best illustrated by thinking about weather prediction contrasted to stock market prediction. The weather will not change based on an important forecaster's opinion, but the stock market might. Complex adaptive systems are thus fundamentally not predictable.

Tragedy of the Commons

A concept introduced by the economist and ecologist Garrett Hardin, the Tragedy of the Commons states that in a system where a common resource is shared, with no individual responsible for the wellbeing of the resource, it will tend to be depleted over time. The Tragedy is reducible to incentives: Unless people collaborate, each individual derives more personal benefit than the cost that he or she incurs, and therefore depletes the resource for fear of missing out.

Backup Systems/Redundancy

A critical model of the engineering profession is that of backup systems. A good engineer never assumes the perfect reliability of the components of the system. He or she builds in redundancy to protect the integrity of the total system. Without the application of this robustness principle, tangible and intangible systems tend to fail over time

Mutually Assured Destruction

A doctrine that stated if two opposing sides used Nuclear weapons, they would both be destroyed.

The Barbell strategy can be applied in many domains

A dual strategy, a combination of two extremes, one safe and one speculative, deemed more robust than a "monomodal" strategy; often a necessary condition for antifragility. For instance, in biological systems, the equivalent of marrying an accountant and having an occasional fling with a rock star; for a writer, getting a stable sinecure and writing without the pressures of the market during spare time. Even trial and error are a form of barbell.

Equivocation

A fallacy by which a key word or phrase in an argument is used with more than one meaning. "I trust you so I trust that you'll be home by 9." The word "trust" is used in two different ways.

Appeal to Authority

A fallacy in which a speaker or writer seeks to persuade not by giving evidence but by appealing to the respect people have for a famous person or institution.

False Analogy

A fallacy in which an argument is based on misleading, superficial, or implausible comparisons; differences of the comparison outweigh the similarities

Special Pleading

A fallacy of logical argument in which the writer suppresses evidence that contradicts the conclusion in an inductive argument.

Slippery Slope

A fallacy that assumes that taking a first step will lead to subsequent steps that cannot be prevented.

False Cause

A fallacy that occurs when the alleged cause fails to be related to, or to produce the effect: "the black cat crossing the street brought me bad luck, so I had an accident."

False Cause

A fallacy that occurs when there exists a flawed connection between two events.

Masked Man Fallacy

A fallacy that occurs when we substitute parties that are not identical within an argument.

Activation Energy

A fire is not much more than a combination of carbon and oxygen, but the forests and coal mines of the world are not combusting at will because such a chemical reaction requires the input of a critical level of "activation energy" in order to get a reaction started. Two combustible elements alone are not enough

Cryptomnesia

A form of misattribution where a memory is mistaken for imagination, because there is no subjective experience of it being a memory.

Cryptomnesia

A form of misattribution where a memory is mistaken for imagination; because there is no subjective experience of it being a memory.

Suggestibility

A form of misattribution where ideas suggested by a questioner are mistaken for memory.

False memory

A form of misattribution where imagination is mistaken for a memory.

Replication

A fundamental building block of diverse biological life is high-fidelity replication. The fundamental unit of replication seems to be the DNA molecule, which provides a blueprint for the offspring to be built from physical building blocks. There are a variety of replication methods, but most can be lumped into sexual and asexual.

Line graph

A graph that plots the relationship between 2 or more variables by using connected data points

Reward and Punishment Super-response Tendency

A great way to advertise is show punishment (fat person) and a reward which is your product (fit person). Advertisers fail because they focus on the features instead of the reward. The power that incentives and disincentives have on the actions of others cannot be overstated. Munger says this should be obvious but so many people don't understand the how important incentives are for shaping people's motivation to complete a task.

Distinguishing between Inferences and Assumptions

A key skill to master in critical thinking is that of distinguishing inferences from assumptions. These crucially related elements frequently get confused. To review their basic meanings: An inference is a mental step by which one concludes that something is true based on something else being true or appearing to be so. For example, if you spot a campaign bumper sticker on someone's car, you infer that that person will vote for the candidate named on the bumper sticker. An inference can be accurate, logical, or justified. Conversely, it can be inaccurate, illogical, or unjustified. An assumption is something we presuppose. We take its truth for granted. Because we do, we don't question it. Assumptions are part of our beliefs, which we use to interpret the world around us. People routinely use their beliefs as assumptions and make inferences based on those assumptions. We rely on assumptions and inferences because we cannot make sense of our world—we cannot judge, interpret, or conclude—without them.

Begging the Question

A logical fallacy in which the conclusion is hidden within the premises. Typically called "circular reasoning." From Plato's Euthyphro - something is pious because it is loved by the gods. That which is loved by the gods is pious.

Inference

A logical process of drawing conclusions.

Veblen Good

A luxury good where the quantity demanded rises as the price rises.

Survivorship Bias

A major problem with historiography - our interpretation of the past - is that history is famously written by the victors. We do not see what Nassim Taleb calls the "silent grave" - the lottery ticket holders who did not win. Thus, we over-attribute success to things done by the successful agent rather than to randomness or luck, and we often learn false lessons by exclusively studying victors without seeing all of the accompanying losers who acted in the same way but were not lucky enough to succeed.

A ________ is calculated by adding up all the values in a dataset and dividing by the total number of values in the dataset.

A mean is calculated by adding up all the values in a dataset and dividing by the total number of values in the dataset.

Inductive fallacy

A more general name to some fallacies, such as hasty generalization. It happens when a conclusion is made of premises that lightly support it.

Network Effects

A network tends to become more valuable as nodes are added to the network: this is known as the network effect. An easy example is contrasting the development of the electricity system and the telephone system. If only one house has electricity, its inhabitants have gained immense value, but if only one house has a telephone, its inhabitants have gained nothing of use. Only with additional telephones does the phone network gain value. This network effect is widespread in the modern world and creates immense value for organizations and customers alike.

Simpson's Paradox

A paradox in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined.

The straw man fallacy

A person create a hypothetical scenerios that will make the opponents idea seems bad.

Rival cause

A plausible alternative explanation for why a certain outcome happened

Proximate vs Root Cause

A proximate cause is an event which is closest to, or immediately responsible for causing, some observed result. This exists in contrast to a higher-level ultimate cause (or distal cause) which is usually thought of as the 'real' reason something occurred." (related: 5 whys — "to determine the root cause of a defect or problem by repeating the question 'Why?')

Impostor Syndrome

A psychological phenomenon in which people are unable to internalize their accomplishments. Despite external evidence of their competence; those with the syndrome remain convinced that they are frauds and do not deserve the success they have achieved. Proof of success is dismissed as luck; timing; or as a result of deceiving others into thinking they are more intelligent and competent than they believe themselves to be.

Survey/questionnaire

A research method or instrument for measuring people's attitudes or beliefs

Which of the following terms describes a plausible alternative explanation for why a particular outcome happened?

A rival cause is a plausible alternative explanation for why something happened.

Feature/Bug Paradox

A scenario where in idea can be seen as a positive in one context but a negative in another. And example would be religion valuing faith in the absence of compelling evidence - something which is not valued in the scientific community

List-length effect

A smaller percentage of items are remembered in a longer list, but as the length of the list increases, the absolute number of items remembered increases as well.

Prisoner's Dilemma

A standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely 'rational' individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so.

Stochastic Processes (Poisson, Markov, Random Walk)

A stochastic process is a random statistical process and encompasses a wide variety of processes in which the movement of an individual variable can be impossible to predict but can be thought through probabilistically. The wide variety of stochastic methods helps us describe systems of variables through probabilities without necessarily being able to determine the position of any individual variable over time. For example, it's not possible to predict stock prices on a day-to-day basis, but we can describe the probability of various distributions of their movements over time. Obviously, it is much more likely that the stock market (a stochastic process) will be up or down 1% in a day than up or down 10%, even though we can't predict what tomorrow will bring.

Random sample

A study sample that is representative of the whole population

Spring-loading

A system is spring-loaded if it is coiled in a certain direction, positive or negative. Positively spring-loading systems and relationships is important in a fundamentally unpredictable world to help protect us against negative events. The reverse can be very destructive.

Research study

A systematic set of observations collected through scientific methods

Thought Experiments

A technique popularized by Einstein, the thought experiment is a way to logically carry out a test in one's own head that would be very difficult or impossible to perform in real life. With the thought experiment as a tool, we can solve problems with intuition and logic that could not be demonstrated physically, as with Einstein imagining himself traveling on a beam of light in order to solve the problem of relativity.

It is impossible to interpret the significance of a percentage without knowing the _________ on which it is based.

Absolute numbers We need to know the absolute numbers from which a percentage has been derived in order to interpret its significance.

Lesson 3: Antifragile systems work, because they build extra capacity when put under stress.

Actually you do experience it quite often, if you exercise regularly, that is. When you go to the gym and lift really heavy weights, and when you feel the burn, you push on and do just one more rep - that's when growth happens. The fragile parts, the tissue in your muscles, is broken down - the failure is reported to the system. In order to ensure future success, your body now overcompensates for this shock, by building extra capacity to handle even bigger shocks better.

Feedback Loops (and Homeostasis)

All complex systems are subject to positive and negative feedback loops whereby A causes B, which in turn influences A (and C), and so on - with higher-order effects frequently resulting from continual movement of the loop. In a homeostatic system, a change in A is often brought back into line by an opposite change in B to maintain the balance of the system, as with the temperature of the human body or the behavior of an organizational culture. Automatic feedback loops maintain a "static" environment unless and until an outside force changes the loop. A "runaway feedback loop" describes a situation in which the output of a reaction becomes its own catalyst (auto-catalysis).

Incentives

All creatures respond to incentives to keep themselves alive. This is the basic insight of biology. Constant incentives will tend to cause a biological entity to have constant behavior, to an extent. Humans are included and are particularly great examples of the incentive-driven nature of biology; however, humans are complicated in that their incentives can be hidden or intangible. The rule of life is to repeat what works and has been rewarded.

Which elements of reasoning are operative when we think through a problem?

All eight elements of reasoning are present whenever we think through a problem.

Question

All reasoning is directed at some question. In any reasoning context, the critical thinker should ask... What question needs to be answered? or What problem needs to be solved? or What issue needs to be resolved? As an aspiring critical thinker, you need to learn how to clearly frame the question, problem, or issue at which your reasoning is directed.

First-order thinking

Americans have always done it that way, and as the greatest country in the world, it's always worked for us in the past. How can we trust the engineering work on this building? The structural engineers weren't educated in the U.S. My intuition tells me to turn right here, so I won't bother to look at the map.

Testimonial

An account of someone else's personal experience

Faulty analogy

An analogy in which there are important relevant dissimilarities between 2 things being compared

Burden of Proof Reversal

An argument in which one who asserts a position fails to prove it, but rather tries to get the interlocutor to disprove it. A good argument is proven by the one who asserts it and it doesn't fall upon one who is skeptical of the claim to disprove it, but rather the asserter of the position to prove it.

Argument from Ignorance

An argument stating that something is true because it has never been proven false.

Which of the following is something we take for granted as true in our reasoning?

An assumption is something whose truth we take as a given.

Dunning-Kruger effect

An effect in which incompetent people fail to realise they are incompetent because they lack the skill to distinguish between competence and incompetence. Actual competence may weaken self-confidence; as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding.

Ambiguity

An event or situation that may be interpreted in more than one way. Also, the manner of expression of such an event or situation may be ambiguous. Artful language may be ambiguous. Unintentional ambiguity is usually vagueness.

Extrinsic incentives bias

An exception to the fundamental attribution error, when people view others as having (situational) extrinsic motivations and (dispositional) intrinsic motivations for oneself

Specialization (Pin Factory)

Another Scottish economist, Adam Smith, highlighted the advantages gained in a free-market system by specialization. Rather than having a group of workers each producing an entire item from start to finish, Smith explained that it's usually far more productive to have each of them specialize in one aspect of production. He also cautioned, however, that each worker might not enjoy such a life; this is a trade-off of the specialization model.

Depriving antifragile systems of vital stressors can be harmful because...

Antifragile system improves with, not withstands, stressors, where the stressors are neither too large or small. The larger point, according to Taleb, is that depriving systems of vital stressors is not necessarily a good thing and can be downright harmful.

Subjective validation

Any predictions or vague statements is likely to be believe by people if it is positive to you. You will dismiss other small mistakes because the positivity is what you pay attention to.

Multiplying by Zero

Any reasonably educated person knows that any number multiplied by zero, no matter how large the number, is still zero. This is true in human systems as well as mathematical ones. In some systems, a failure in one area can negate great effort in all other areas. As simple multiplication would show, fixing the "zero" often has a much greater effect than does trying to enlarge the other areas.

Denial

Anyone who has been alive long enough realizes that, as the saying goes, "denial is not just a river in Africa." This is powerfully demonstrated in situations like war or drug abuse, where denial has powerful destructive effects but allows for behavioral inertia. Denying reality can be a coping mechanism, a survival mechanism, or a purposeful tactic.

Argument for Ignorance

Arguing that it is better to be ignorant than to know the truth.

First-Conclusion Bias

As Charlie Munger famously pointed out, the mind works a bit like a sperm and egg: the first idea gets in and then the mind shuts. Like many other tendencies, this is probably an energy-saving device. Our tendency to settle on first conclusions leads us to accept many erroneous results and cease asking questions; it can be countered with some simple and useful mental routines.

Thinking to Some Purpose

As a critical thinker, never assume that: your purposes are consistent with one another; or your announced purposes are your actual purposes

Commitment & Consistency Bias

As psychologists have frequently and famously demonstrated, humans are subject to a bias towards keeping their prior commitments and staying consistent with our prior selves when possible. This trait is necessary for social cohesion: people who often change their conclusions and habits are often distrusted. Yet our bias towards staying consistent can become, as one wag put it, a "hobgoblin of foolish minds" - when it is combined with the first-conclusion bias, we end up landing on poor answers and standing pat in the face of great evidence.

Loaded Question

Asking a question that has an assumption built into it so that it cannot be answered without making one appear guilty. "Do you still beat your girlfriend?"

Begging the question

Asserting a conclusion that is assumed in the reasoning.

Search for perfect solution fallacy

Asserting that a solution (or argument) is not worth adopting because it does not fix the problem completely.

Either-or fallacy

Assuming only two alternatives when, in reality, there are more than two.

either-or

Assuming only two alternatives when, in reality, there are more than two. It implies that one of two outcomes is inevitable—either x or y.

The Presentist Fallacy

Assuming that because something is currently a particular way that it is the way that it ought to be.

Nostalgic Fallacy

Assuming that because something was a certain way that is the way that it ought to be.

Middle-Ground Fallacy

Assuming that the middle position between two others is always the right one.

Composition or Division

Assuming that what is true about one part of something is also true about the whole.

Future Fallacy

Assuming the future will be like the present.

Understanding Assumptions and Inferences

Assumptions are the unstated or hidden beliefs that support our explicit reasoning about something. Assumptions are what we take for granted as being true when we formulate or accept an argument. An inference or conclusion is the outcome of reasoning. It is what the writer or speaker is trying to prove about the issue being addressed. Therefore, we find the inference/conclusion when we identify what the communicator is trying to persuade us to accept.

Anthropomorphism

Attributing human characteristics to an animal or inanimate object

Empirical

Based on or derived from practical experiment and direct observation

21: Negotiate while advancing: Diplomatic war Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Before and during negotiations, keep advancing, creating relentless pressure and compelling the other side to settle on your terms. The more you take, the more you can give back in meaningless concessions. Create a reputation for being tough and uncompromising so that people are giving ground even before they meet you.

Illusion of validity

Belief that furtherly acquired information generates additional relevant data for predictions, even when it evidently does not.

Factual claims

Beliefs about the way the world is, was, or will be whose credibility depends on the quality of evidence offered to support them

Quality Criteria

Believable Objective Sufficient Relevant From reputable sources Free of bias Independently verifiable Logically sound Internally consistent

Bizarreness effect

Bizarre material is better remembered than common material. (Memory palace)

Defensive attribution bias

Blaming people for bad things that happen to them in order to protect your own feelings.

Curiosity Tendency

Business must create curiousity of customers, eliminate things that people heard before so they would become curious. Leave people hanging, give a sample of the product and leave them hanging. There is not enough curiosity to learn, even though you receive so many benefits from a continuous learning process. Munger says, "the curious are also provided with much fun and wisdom once formal education has ended."

Misleading Techniques

By adjusting the X or Y axis scales, you can exaggerate the effect a line chart displays

Influence-From-Mere-Association Tendency

Celebrity influence customers, thus putting ads that they using your product and people think your product must be great. Mcdonald and lebron james. We can be easily manipulated by mere association. It can be a group of people, the quality of a product, advertising, etc.

Intellectual Humility

Characterization Commitment to discovering the extent of one's own ignorance on any issue Recognition that one does not—and cannot—know everything Consciousness of one's biases and prejudices Aware of the limitations of one's viewpoint Recognition that one should claim only what one actually knows Awareness that egocentrism is often self-deceiving (i.e., convinces the mind that it knows more than it does) Its Opposite Intellectual arrogance Overestimation of how much one knows No insight into self-deception or into the limitations of one's viewpoint Relationship to Fair-Mindedness Fair-mindedness requires us to first recognize the ignorance and flaws in our own thinking and to comport ourselves accordingly. It requires self-awareness and a willingness to examine the limitations of one's own point of view. Being a fair-minded thinker means habitually applying the standards of reasoning to one's own thinking in an effort to improve it.

Intellectual Courage

Characterization Confronting ideas, viewpoints, or beliefs with fairness, even when doing so is painful Examining fairly beliefs which one has strong negative feelings and toward which one has previously been dismissive Challenging popular belief Leads us to recognize that ideas which society deems dangerous or absurd may hold some truth or justification Fortifies us to confront false or distorted ideas embraced by social groups to which we belong Its Opposite Intellectual cowardice Fear of ideas that do not conform to one's own Deters serious consideration of ideas, beliefs, or viewpoints perceived as dangerous Threatened by ideas when they conflict with our self-identity (e.g., conservative or liberal, believer or nonbeliever, etc.) Relationship to Fair-Mindedness Critical thinkers don't link their self-identities to their beliefs. They define themselves according to how they arrive at their beliefs (i.e., the intellectual process) Refusing to connect one's identity with one's beliefs fosters greater intellectual courage and fair-mindedness

Intellectual Integrity

Characterization Holding oneself to the same rigorous intellectual standards that one expects others to meet Practicing daily what we preach to others Admitting flaws and inconsistencies in our own thinking Identifying weaknesses in our own thinking Basic measure: extent to which one's beliefs and actions are consistent (i.e., one doesn't say one thing and do another) it's oppopsite Intellectual dishonesty Marked by contradictions and inconsistencies of which the perpetrator is unconscious Hiding our hypocrisy from ourselves (due to naturally egocentric mind) Regarding ourselves as fair even when we expect others to follow much more rigorous standards than those we impose on ourselves Relationship to Fair-Mindedness Fair-mindedness requires us to think and act in compatible ways Those blind to contradictions and inconsistencies in their own thinking and behavior can't reason well through ethical issues involving themselves

Intellectual Empathy

Characterization Inhabiting the perspectives of others in order to genuinely understand them Requirements Ability to reconstruct other people's viewpoints and reasoning Ability to reason from premises, assumptions, and ideas not one's own Motivation to concede when one was wrong in the past despite a strong conviction of being right at the time Ability to imagine being similarly mistaken in a current situation Its Opposite Intellectual self-centeredness Thinking centered on self Renders us unable to understand others' thoughts, feelings, and emotions Won't permit us to consider problems or issues from a vantage point other than our own Relationship to Fair-Mindedness Fair-mindedness requires a sincere attempt to inhabit the perspectives of other people in order to fathom their thinking One can't be fair to the reasoning of others if one has not genuinely tried to understand it

Intellectual Perseverance

Characterization Working one's way through intellectual complexities despite frustrations inherent in doing so Not giving up when confronted by complicated problems that don't lend themselves to easy solutions Hallmarks Reasoning through complex issues carefully and methodically Following rational principles rather than trusting initial impressions and simplistic answers Realizing that true understanding or insight comes only when one grapples with confusion and unsettled questions over time Its Opposite Intellectual laziness Giving up quickly when confronted with a tough intellectual challenge Reflects a low tolerance for mental struggle or frustration Relationship to Fair-Mindedness Lack of intellectual perseverance impedes fair-mindedness We can't understand others' (complex) viewpoints unless we're willing to undertake the hard intellectual work of reasoning through them

Appeal to fear fallacy

Citing a threat or possibility of a frightening outcome as the reason for supporting an argument.

appeal to fear

Citing a threat or possibility of a frightening outcome as the reason for supporting an argument. This threat can be physical or emotional: the idea is to invoke fear. This is sometimes termed "scare tactics."

Appeal to popularity/ popular passions fallacy

Citing majority sentiment or popular opinion as the reason for supporting a claim.

appeal to popularity/ popular passions

Citing majority sentiment or popular opinion as the reason for supporting a claim. It assumes that any position favored by the larger crowd must be true or worthy.

All reasoning is based on information

Claim only what you can support with the information you have Seek information that opposes your position as well as information that supports it Utilize only information that is clear, accurate, and relevant to the issue at hand Gather sufficient information Consider all significant information relevant to the issue

Appeal to experience fallacy

Claiming to speak with the "voice of experience" in support of an argument (even when that experience may not be relevant).

appeal to experience

Claiming to speak with the "voice of experience" in support of an argument (even when that experience may not be relevant).

Thinking that is easily understood reflects which of the intellectual standards?

Clarity

Applying Standards to Information

Clear Relevant Fairly gathered and reported Accurate Adequate Consistently Applied

All reasoning is shaped by, and expressed through, concepts

Clearly identify key concepts Consider alternative concepts Use concepts with care and precision Use concepts justifiably (i.e., don't distort their established meanings)

6. All reasoning is expressed through, and shaped by, concepts and ideas.

Clearly identify key concepts. Consider alternative concepts or alternative definitions for concepts. Make sure you are using concepts with care and precision. Use concepts justifiably (not distorting their established meanings).

All reasoning is based on assumptions

Clearly identify your assumptions Determine whether they are justifiable Consider how your point of view is shaped by your assumptions

3. All reasoning is based on assumptions.

Clearly identify your assumptions and determine whether they are justifiable. Consider how your assumptions are shaping your point of view.

All reasoning occurs from some point of view

Clearly identify your point of view Seek other relevant points of view and identify their strengths and weaknesses Strive for fair-mindedness in evaluating all points of view

4. All reasoning is done from some point of view.

Clearly identify your point of view. Seek other relevant points of view and identify their strengths as well as weaknesses. Strive to be fair-minded in evaluating all points of view.

Creative Destruction

Coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter, the term "creative destruction" describes the capitalistic process at work in a functioning free-market system. Motivated by personal incentives (including but not limited to financial profit), entrepreneurs will push to best one another in a never-ending game of creative one-upmanship, in the process destroying old ideas and replacing them with newer technology. Beware getting left behind.

Mill's Methods of Determining Causation

Common factor Single Difference Concomitant variation In Process of elimination

In analyzing causation, looking for a single shared factor

Common factor method

Cooperation (Including Symbiosis)

Competition tends to describe most biological systems, but cooperation at various levels is just as important a dynamic. In fact, the cooperation of a bacterium and a simple cell probably created the first complex cell and all of the life we see around us. Without cooperation, no group survives, and the cooperation of groups gives rise to even more complex versions of organization. Cooperation and competition tend to coexist at multiple levels.

Survivorship bias

Concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility.

looking for a pattern of variation between a possible cause and a possible effect

Concomitant variation In analyzing causation

Genetic Fallacy

Condemning an argument because of where it began, how it began, or who began it. Similar in form to ad-hominem.

barriers to entry

Conditions that keep new businesses either from entering an industry or succeeding in that industry.

Source confusion

Confusing episodic memories with other information, creating distorted memories.

The Customer Service committee has been very disciplined in reviewing the weekly call reports by focusing on each category of call sequentially." Is this information consistently applied or inconsistently applied?

Consistently applied Correct. This is a consistent application of information.

All reasoning is based on assumptions.

Correct. All reasoning is based on assumptions. Critical thinkers analyze and identify their assumptions.

The data, facts, opinions, and experiences that factor in your reasoning

Correct. Information should be used to support your claims, and it should be evaluated carefully.

5: Avoid the snares of groupthink: Command-and-control Strategy ORGANIZATIONAL WARFARE

Create a chain of command where people do not feel constrained by your influence yet follow your lead. Create a sense of participation, but do not fall into groupthink.

19: Envelop the enemy: Annihilation Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Create relentless pressure from all sides and close off their access to the outside world. When you sense weakening resolve, tighten the noose and crush their willpower.

Which of the following statements best defines critical thinking?

Critical thinking involves thinking about thinking while thinking in order to make thinking better.

Paul and Elder's "Dimensions of Decision-Making" suggest all of the following steps, except:

D. Paul and Elder counsel that you take problems and decisions one-by-one, not merging them together.

ELEMENT OF REASON ASSUMPTIONS

DESCRIPTION All reasoning begins with our assumptions (i.e., our presuppositions, or what we take for granted as true). APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS Assess your ability to identify/recognize assumptions. Assess your ability to analyze assumptions (yours and others') according to relevant intellectual standards. Clear or unclear? Justifiable or unjustifiable (in the context of the issue at hand)? Consistent or contradictory? Logical or illogical? State your assumptions clearly and precisely.

ELEMENT OF REASON QUESTION AT ISSUE

DESCRIPTION All reasoning involves at least one question to answer or issue to resolve. Assess your ability to formulate the question at hand clearly. APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS Determine whether the question is important and answerable. Ask yourself if you understand what's required to settle the question. Pose questions that sharpen your focus on the question at issue. What precisely is the question? Is it the most fundamental one at issue? Is there more than one question that I need to address in order to effectively reason through the problem?

ELEMENT OF REASON CONCEPTS

DESCRIPTION All reasoning takes form in concepts. Concepts include the theories, principles, axioms, and rules implicit in our reasoning. APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS Assess the extent to which concepts in your reasoning are clear precise relevant to the issue at hand distorted by your point of view Pose questions that sharpen your focus on concepts used in your reasoning. What is the most fundamental concept applied to the issue at hand? Are my concepts deep and broad enough to do intellectual justice to the question or problem?

ELEMENT OF REASON IMPLICATIONS

DESCRIPTION Implications follow from our reasoning whenever we reason. That which extends beyond whatever conclusion we reach through our reasoning. APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS Assess your ability to identify/recognize implications. The critical thinker strives to: grasp implications wherever they occur be able to trace the logical implications and consequences of reasoning Assess implications for their clarity, depth, breadth, and significance.

ELEMENT OF REASON INFERENCES

DESCRIPTION Steps of mind by which we conclude that something is true based on something else being true (or appearing to be so). All reasoning proceeds by steps in the following construct: "Because this is so, that also is so (or probably is so)." Learn to identify whenever you or someone else has made an inference. APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS State inferences clearly and precisely. Pose questions that sharpen your focus on inferences in reasoning. What are the key inferences? What assumptions are the inferences based upon? Are the inferences justifiable? Are the inferences logical? Even if logical, are the inferences relevant and important to the question at issue?

ELEMENT OF REASON PURPOSE

DESCRIPTION We reason to some goal or objective whenever we reason. If our purpose is faulty (e.g., confused or muddled), our reasoning in pursuit of it will suffer. APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS Always state your purpose precisely. Strive to be clear about your purpose in all situations. Pose questions that sharpen your focus on your purpose. Is my purpose significant? Is it justifiable? Does it contradict other goals I have?

ELEMENT OF REASON POINT OF VIEW

DESCRIPTION We reason within some point of view or frame of reference whenever we reason. Possible flaws in our point of view Too narrow Founded on false or misleading information Embodies contradictions Strive for a point of view that considers opposing points of view with fairness. APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS Strive for a point of view that is broad, flexible, and justifiable. Weigh alternative points of view when you reason through an issue. State all points of view that are relevant to the issue at hand (and state them clearly, precisely, and accurately). Pose questions that sharpen your focus on your point of view. From what vantage point am I viewing this issue? Am I so rooted to my point of view that I can't see the issue from other points of view? Must I consider alternative points of view in order to reason effectively through the issue at hand?

ELEMENT OF REASON INFORMATION

DESCRIPTION We use information whenever we reason. Various forms Data Facts Experiences and observations Word of mouth APPLYING THE INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS Utilize only evidence that is clear, fair, and accurate. Assess whether information you use in reasoning is relevant to the issue at hand and sufficient to achieve your purpose. Assess whether you are distorting information to fit your own point of view. Pose questions that sharpen your focus on information in your reasoning. What is the most important information I need? What (if any) alternative information sources do I need to consider? How can I determine if the information I'm using is accurate? Is all of the information I'm using relevant to the issue at hand?

____________________ involves developing the tools of critical thinking and applying them to current and future challenges.

Deep learning

Two wrongs make a right fallacy

Defending or justifying our wrong position or conduct by pointing to a similar wrong done by someone else

two wrongs make a right

Defending or justifying our wrong position or conduct by pointing to a similar wrong done by someone else.

Arguing From a False Premise

Deriving a conclusion from at least one false premise.

Egocentric immediacy

Description Overgeneralizing so that immediate events, whether favorable or unfavorable, influence thinking Ways to correct Adopting a broader view and keeping positive and negative events in perspective

Egocentric myopia

Description Adopting an overly narrow point of view and thinking in absolutes Ways to correct Considering points of view that conflict with ours

Egocentric absurdity

Description Failing to recognize thinking that has "absurd" consequences Ways to correct Reviewing our thinking for realism

Egocentric righteousness

Description Feeling superior because of possessing the "Truth" Ways to correct Stating unanswered questions Reminding ourselves how little we actually know

Egocentric oversimplification

Description Ignoring complexity and embracing simplicity that conforms to our existing views, values, and beliefs Ways to correct Focusing on complexities and restating them and considering their impact on our thinking

Egocentric hypocrisy

Description Ignoring inconsistencies between belief and behavior and between public standards and private actions Ways to correct Comparing beliefs and behaviors and standards and actions to expose inconsistencies

Egocentric memory

Description Remembering only that evidence and information that supports our thinking Ways to correct Explicitly seeking evidence and information that runs counter to our thinking

Reactive devaluation

Devaluing proposals only because they are purportedly originated with an adversary.

Reactive devaluation

Devaluing proposals only because they purportedly originated with an adversary.

Quantitative evidence derives from quantitative research and deductive analysis. It generally is an outcome of scientific methods including:

Devising empirical models/hypotheses about things Testing the models/hypotheses through controlled experiments Using statistically valid samples Developing instruments for measuring outcomes Collecting verifiable data Quantitative evidence is concerned with determining causation: one thing (e.g., a new diabetes drug) caused another thing (e.g., glycemic control in diabetic patients) under controlled experimental conditions.

Suffix effect

Diminishment of the recency effect because a sound item is appended to the list that the subject is not required to recall.

Hyperbolic discounting

Discounting is the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs. Hyperbolic discounting leads to choices that are inconsistent over time - people make choices today that their future selves would prefer not to have made, despite using the same reasoning. Also known as current moment bias, present-bias, and related to Dynamic inconsistency.

Ad hominem fallacy

Dismissing an argument by attacking the person who offers it rather than by refuting its reasoning.

ad hominem

Dismissing an argument by attacking the person who offers it rather than by refuting its reasoning. -The tort reform legislation must be worth supporting because the greedy trial lawyers all oppose it.

Straw man fallacy

Distorting or exaggerating an opponent's argument so that it might be more easily attacked.

straw man

Distorting or exaggerating an opponent's argument so that it might be more easily attacked.

Opportunity Costs

Doing one thing means not being able to do another. We live in a world of trade-offs, and the concept of opportunity cost rules all. Most aptly summarized as "there is no such thing as a free lunch."

Reactance

Doing the opposite of what the individual or group wants us to do; A motive to regain or reassert a freedom that's been threatened

Analogy

Drawing a comparison between 2 things in order to show a meaningful resemblance between them. It implies that if 2 things are alike in one respect, they will be alike in other respects

Faulty analogy

Drawing an invalid comparison between things for the purpose of either supporting or refuting some position.

faulty analogy

Drawing an invalid comparison between things for the purpose of either supporting or refuting some position. A faulty analogy suggests that because two things are alike in some respect, they must be alike in other respects.

Framing effect

Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how or by whom that information is presented.

Framing effect

Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented

Wanting

Drives us to act as we do goals desires purposes agendas values motives

Which of the following statements is NOT true, according to Paul and Elder?

Egocentricity is NOT unnatural, it is an innate human trait, according to Paul and Elder.

Which of the following statements falsely represents Paul and Elder's views of the news media?

Events can be viewed and interpreted from one objective point-of-view.

antifragile system to work, its individual parts must be fragile, because

Every human being or animal can die and quite easily so. But, because the system can use life and death as indicators of success and failure, the evolution of species in itself is antifragile. So for an antifragile system to work, its individual parts must be fragile, because the success and failure of these parts serves as important feedback for the system as a whole and allows it to get better in chaotic circumstances.

Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency

Everything in your store, marketing, management. Must be congruent to your products. Walmart sell commodity which is cheap and congruent to their store. Same as Sams Club We have a reluctance to change. Eliminating bad habits is a rare trait.

Quantitative evidence

Evidence that quantifies an observation or phenomenon and is concerned with determining causation

Evolution by Natural Selection

Evolution by natural selection was once called "the greatest idea anyone ever had." In the 19th century, Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace simultaneous realized that species evolve through random mutation and differential survival rates. If we call human intervention in animal-breeding an example of "artificial selection," we can call Mother Nature deciding the success or failure of a particular mutation "natural selection." Those best suited for survival tend to be preserved. But of course, conditions change.

Overconfidence effect

Excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.

Overconfidence effect

Excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example; for certain types of questions; answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.

Stereotyping

Expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.

Naïve cynicism

Expecting more egocentric bias in others than in oneself

Naive cynicism

Expecting more egocentric bias in others than in oneself.

Clarity (clearness)

Explanation -Our thinking is clear when it is easily understood. -We must be clear in our own mind about what we mean -We must express what we mean clearly so others understand us Clarity of thought enables us to see where our thinking is leading us We can't determine either the accuracy or relevance of a statement if it is unclear Questions it implies Could you elaborate on that point? Could you give me an example?

Accuracy

Explanation -To be accurate is to represent something as it actually is -We think accurately when our reasoning expresses how things actually are Common barriers to accurate reasoning: -presuming one's own thoughts are automatically accurate -presuming others' thoughts are inaccurate when they disagree with us -failing to question statements that validate what we already believe Questions it implies How can we determine if that is true? How can we verify the accuracy of that?

Breadth

Explanation Our reasoning is broad when it considers the issue at hand from every relevant viewpoint Breadth directs us to look around us, at alternative or opposing perspectives Failure to duly consider points of view pertinent to an issue is to think narrow-mindedly Questions it implies Do we need to consider another point of view? Do we need to look at this in other ways?

Depth

Explanation Our reasoning is deep when it: -plumbs beneath the surface of an issue or problem to identify the underlying complexities; and -addresses those complexities in an intellectually responsible way Depth directs us to delve deeper into an issue Questions it implies What are some of the complexities of the question? How do you take into account the problems in the question?

Significance

Explanation Our reasoning should concentrate on the most important information relevant to the issue at hand Our thinking falters when we fail to recognize that not all information which happens to be pertinent to an issue is equally important Questions it implies Which of these ideas is most important? Is this the central idea to focus on?

Fairness

Explanation Our thinking is fair when it is justified To be justified is to think fairly in context Thinking that satisfies all other fundamental intellectual standards satisfies the standard of justifiability Examples of unfairness in reasoning: -refusing to consider relevant information that would lead us to change our view -using concepts unjustifiably to manipulate people -making unjustified assumptions (unsupported by facts) that lead to flawed inferences Questions it implies Are my assumptions justified? Am I taking full account of the thinking of others?

Precision

Explanation Reasoning is precise when it is specific, exact, and sufficiently detailed Precision is related to clarity but distinct from it. Something may be clear but not precise. For example: -I am going to the party soon (clear but imprecise) -I am going to the party at eight o'clock (clear and precise) Questions it implies Could you provide more details? Could you be more specific?

Relevance

Explanation Something is relevant when it pertains to the problem we seek to solve Thinking is relevant when it focuses on what is important—on what matters—in understanding or deciding the issue at hand Irrelevant thinking dwells on what properly should be set aside or disregarded Questions it implies How does this idea relate to the issue? How does your claim bear on the question?

Logic

Explanation Thinking is logical when thoughts and the order in which they are organized are mutually supportive and make sense in combination Thinking that is internally contradictory or includes conflicting ideas is not logical Questions it implies Does all this make sense together? How does that follow from the evidence?

Retributive Justice

Fair punishment that fits the seriousness of the misbehavior.

Kantian Fairness Tendency

Fairness is what people believe in like staying in line. Company give people sample and people subconsiously think oh they give me something now I have to buy it to be FAIR. Life isn't fair, but many can't except this. Tolerating a little unfairness should be okay if it means a greater fairness for all. The example Munger uses is letting in other drivers on the freeway knowing they will reciprocate in the future.

Challenging the thinking within a field of knowledge, profession, or academic discipline is easy and straightforward. True or false?

False Challenging the thinking within a field of knowledge, profession, or academic discipline is no easy matter, but critical consumers will ask difficult questions to challenge the status quo.

Not seeing facts and evidence that contradicts your way of thinking is called egocentric myopia. True or false?

False Not seeing facts and evidence that contradicts your way of thinking is called egocentric blindness. Egocentric myopia occurs when a thinker adopts an overly narrow point of view and thinks in absolutes.

Remembering only that evidence and information that supports our thinking is essential for developing a rational mind. True or false?

False Only remembering evidence and information that supports our way of thinking is a pathological tendency called egocentric memory. Correcting this pathology is part of developing a rational mind.

According to the five foundations of ethical thinking introduced by Paul and Elder, we must pick and choose our ethical principles subjectively. True or false?

False We cannot pick and choose our ethical principles subjectively.

Activated Ignorance

False information that is mistakenly believed to be true and acted upon. -"Taking into the mind, and actively using, information that is false, although we mistakenly think it is true." -We mislearn or partially learn information or accept illogical beliefs and then act on them. -Accepting stereotypes about given ethnic or racial groups and altering behavior because of them.

Activated Ignorance

False information that is mistakenly believed to be true and acted upon. 8

Egocentric righteousness

Feeling superior because of possessing the "Truth"

Anchoring

Final judgments and behaviors are assimilated or become more similar to an initial anchor value; Giving too much value to the first piece of information received

16: Hit them where it hurts: Center-of-gravity Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Find the source of your enemy's power. Find out what he cherishes and protects and strike.

Black Swans are not predictable

For human systems, we tend to fight the last war, building a nuclear power plant that can withstand the worst earthquake that we've seen .

18: Expose and attack your opponent's soft flank: Turning Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Frontal assaults stiffen resistance. Instead, distract your enemy's attention to the front, then attack from the side when they expose their weakness.

Trust

Fundamentally, the modern world operates on trust. Familial trust is generally a given (otherwise we'd have a hell of a time surviving), but we also choose to trust chefs, clerks, drivers, factory workers, executives, and many others. A trusting system is one that tends to work most efficiently; the rewards of trust are extremely high.

Scarcity

Game theory describes situations of conflict, limited resources, and competition. Given a certain situation and a limited amount of resources and time, what decisions are competitors likely to make, and which should they make? One important note is that traditional game theory may describe humans as more rational than they really are. Game theory is theory, after all.

Concepts

General categories or ideas by which we interpret or classify information used in our thinking

7: Transform your war into a crusade: Morale Strategy ORGANIZATIONAL WARFARE

Get them to think less about themselves and more about the group. Involve them in a cause, a crusade against a hated enemy. Make them see their survival is tied to the success of the army as a whole.

Arbitrage

Given two markets selling an identical good, an arbitrage exists if the good can profitably be bought in one market and sold at a profit in the other. This model is simple on its face, but can present itself in disguised forms: The only gas station in a 50-mile radius is also an arbitrage as it can buy gasoline and sell it at the desired profit (temporarily) without interference. Nearly all arbitrage situations eventually disappear as they are discovered and exploited.

The Problem with the Green Lumber Fallacy

Green Lumber Fallacy and a Green Lumber Problem: "James Le Fanu showed how our understanding of the biological processes was coupled with a decline of pharmaceutical discoveries, as if rationalistic theories were blinding and somehow a handicap. Green Lumber Fallacy Only: "The same holds for the statement 'lifting weights increases your muscle mass'. In the past they used to say that weight lifting caused the 'micro-tearing of muscles', with subsequent healing and increase in size. Today some people discuss hormonal signaling or genetic mechanisms, tomorrow they will discuss something else. But the effect has held forever and will continue to do so

Groupthink

Group think will work if everyone have a part and speak their mind. However, there must be someone that find the fault in final decision because people will tend to just follow to get over with.

Which of the following is not among the suggested beginning tactics for improving your thinking?

Handle multiple problems per day.

Hanlon's Razor

Harder to trace in its origin, Hanlon's Razor states that we should not attribute to malice that which is more easily explained by stupidity. In a complex world, this principle helps us avoid extreme paranoia and ideology, often very hard to escape from, by not generally assuming that bad results are the fault of a bad actor, although they can be. More likely, a mistake has been made.

Accuracy

Has the veracity or accuracy of the information been challenged? Does it match other sources of information on the same topic, or on the facts? How current is the information? Is it the most up-to-date?

frequently clothing signals antifragility

He also provides a heuristic: People who don't seem to care how they dress or look are robust or antifragile. People who have to wear suits and ties and worry about a bad reputation are fragile.

slippery slope

Heaven help us if the Supreme Court upholds the prohibition on assault weapons. Next thing you know, it will allow bans on handguns, and before long we will no longer enjoy any right under the Constitution to bear arms.

Emergence

Higher-level behavior tends to emerge from the interaction of lower-order components. The result is frequently not linear - not a matter of simple addition - but rather non-linear, or exponential. An important resulting property of emergent behavior is that it cannot be predicted from simply studying the component parts.

Bias from Incentives

Highly responsive to incentives, humans have perhaps the most varied and hardest to understand set of incentives in the animal kingdom. This causes us to distort our thinking when it is in our own interest to do so. A wonderful example is a salesman truly believing that his product will improve the lives of its users. It's not merely convenient that he sells the product; the fact of his selling the product causes a very real bias in his own thinking.

Hormesis is an example of mild antifragility (medicine)

Hormesis is an example of mild antifragility, where the stressor is a poisonous substance and the antifragile becomes better overall from a small dose of the stressor.

Hormesis, Small Stressors & Inverse Hormesis

Hormesis is another example of Antifragility. By taking small doses of a poison you can develop more immunity to it, just as vaccinations use a small dose of a disease to train your body to resist its stronger form.

Scope and depth

How broad and deep is the information? What questions can this information help answer? How much detail is offered? What is missing?

Transparency

How easy is it to trace the origins of the information? Are there citations or references? Can other researchers access the information (especially important with primary source documents)?

Social Proof (Safety in Numbers)

Human beings are one of many social species, along with bees, ants, and chimps, among many more. We have a DNA-level instinct to seek safety in numbers and will look for social guidance of our behavior. This instinct creates a cohesive sense of cooperation and culture which would not otherwise be possible, but also leads us to do foolish things if our group is doing them as well.

Narrative Instinct

Human beings have been appropriately called "the storytelling animal" because of our instinct to construct and seek meaning in narrative. It's likely that long before we developed the ability to write or to create objects, we were telling stories and thinking in stories. Nearly all social organizations, from religious institutions to corporations to nation-states, run on constructions of the narrative instinct

The just world fallacy

Humanity believe that fairness is and should be the core functionality of the world. While in reality it is not, people that does things morally wrong get out if things without paying the price in most cases.

Tendency to Feel Envy & Jealousy

Humans have a tendency to feel envious of those receiving more than they are, and a desire "get what is theirs" in due course. The tendency towards envy is strong enough to drive otherwise irrational behavior, but is as old as humanity itself. Any system ignorant of envy effects will tend to self-immolate over time.

Argument from (personal) incredulity (divine fallacy, appeal to common sense)

I cannot imagine how this could be true, therefore it must be false.

Which of the following is an example of the logic of egocentric thinking applied to point of view?

I don't really care what anyone thinks, I deserve to be rewarded and that's the way it is.

appeal to authority

I support Third World debt relief because U2 front man Bono has tirelessly advocated this position.

Decreasing risk by Via negativa

I would add that, in my own experience, a considerable jump in my personal health has been achieved by removing offensive irritants: the morning newspapers (the mere mention of the names of the fragilista journalists Thomas Friedman or Paul Krugman can lead to explosive bouts of unrequited anger on my part), the boss, the daily commute, air-conditioning (though not heating), television, emails from documentary filmmakers, economic forecasts, news about the stock market, gym "strength training" machines, and many more

two components in strategic thinking:

Identification. Recognizing when your thinking is irrational or flawed. Intellectual action. Engaging and challenging your own thinking.

According to Paul and Elder, a two-step process can be helpful in developing a rational mind:

Identifying the predictable, pathological tendencies we have; and Correcting these pathologies through critical thinking.

Reciprocity

If I push on a wall, physics tells me that the wall pushes back with equivalent force. In a biological system, if one individual acts on another, the action will tend to be reciprocated in kind. And of course, human beings act with intense reciprocity demonstrated as well.

precautionary principle

If an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public, or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus (that the action or policy is not harmful), the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking an action that may or may not be a risk.

Naïve cynicism

If people disagree with us, we assume they do so because of egocentric biases.

appeal to popularity

If the majority of lawmakers favor tort reform, then it's good enough for me.

Availability heuristic

If we can recall something, it must be more important than alternative solutions not as easily recalled.

Continued influence effect

If we learn a false truth, we continue to be influenced by it even if we have since learnt it is false.

Consistency bias

If you believe in something you will control your behavior as the result will become it.

Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency

If you don't consistency use it you lose it. Too many learn a skill to simply cram for a test or presentation instead of trying to actually understand it fluently.

either-or

If you don't invest your nest egg in the stock market, you might as well just stuff it under the mattress.

Dissonance Reduction

If you find your behaviour is inconsistent with your attitudes, it's often easier to change your attitudes than to change your behaviour

weak sense critical thinkers

Ignore the flaws in their own thinking Often seek to win an argument through intellectual trickery or deceit. Lacks key higher-level skills and values of critical thinking Makes no good faith effort to consider alternative viewpoints. Lacks fair-mindedness Employ lower-level rhetorical skills (making unreasonable thinking appear reasonable and reasonable thinking appear unreasonable). Employ emotionalism and intellectual trickery. Hide or distort evidence

What is said to follow from our reasoning?

Implications

Regression to the Mean

In a normally distributed system, long deviations from the average will tend to return to that average with an increasing number of observations: the so-called Law of Large Numbers. We are often fooled by regression to the mean, as with a sick patient improving spontaneously around the same time they begin taking an herbal remedy, or a poorly performing sports team going on a winning streak. We must be careful not to confuse statistically likely events with causal ones.

Tendency to Minimize Energy Output (Mental & Physical)

In a physical world governed by thermodynamics and competition for limited energy and resources, any biological organism that was wasteful with energy would be at a severe disadvantage for survival. Thus, we see in most instances that behavior is governed by a tendency to minimize energy usage when at all possible.

Choice-supportive bias

In a self-justifying manner retroactively ascribing one's choices to be more informed than they were when they were made.

Chaos Dynamics (Sensitivity to Initial Conditions)

In a world such as ours, governed by chaos dynamics, small changes (perturbations) in initial conditions have massive downstream effects as near-infinite feedback loops occur; this phenomenon is also called the butterfly effect. This means that some aspects of physical systems (like the weather more than a few days from now) as well as social systems (the behavior of a group of human beings over a long period) are fundamentally unpredictable.

Ad-hominem

In an argument, this is an attack on the person rather than on the opponent's ideas. It comes from the Latin meaning "turn to the man."

In finance, a Barbell strategy

In finance, a Barbell strategy is formed when a Trader invests in Long and Short duration bonds, but does not invest in Intermediate duration bonds. This strategy is useful when interest rates are rising; as the short term maturities are rolled over they receive a higher interest rate, raising the value.

Order of Magnitude

In many, perhaps most, systems, quantitative description down to a precise figure is either impossible or useless (or both). For example, estimating the distance between our galaxy and the next one over is a matter of knowing not the precise number of miles, but how many zeroes are after the 1. Is the distance about 1 million miles or about 1 billion? This thought habit can help us escape useless precision.

PRINCIPLE 1 - FOCUS ON WHAT REALLY MATTERS (MCKINSEY EDGE) Constantly have a razor-sharp awareness of what you are doing and how it is adding value to you or to your problems.

In ogni progetto è necessario tenere a mente le priorità, dando maggior spazio a ciò che è più urgente e importante. È necessario imparare come scomporre un problema. Utilizzare il senso di urgenza; creare e seguire un certo piano; valutare economicamente il proprio piano. Il tutto si riassume nell'idea che per ogni progetto (personale o esterno) è necessario avere un piano da seguire, anche se flessibile.

Memory errors and biases

In psychology and cognitive science, a memory bias is a cognitive bias that either enhances or impairs the recall of a memory (either the chances that the memory will be recalled at all, or the amount of time it takes for it to be recalled, or both), or that alters the content of a reported memory. There are many types of memory bias, including:

Inferences

In reasoning, we sometimes begin with something we know (or at least, which we believe we know) and figure out something else based on it. When we do so, we make inferences. For example, if one drives by a store and sees no cars in the parking lot or lights in the window, one infers that the store is closed. To make inferences is to come to conclusions. We continually make inferences about people, events, and things in our everyday lives.

Illusory correlation

Inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events.

Illusory correlation

Inaccurately remembering a relationship between two events.

"The first place winner in the 10K race was Steven Katz. The third place finisher was Gregor Mankins. Fred Habib finished fourth." Is this information adequate or inadequate?

Inadequate Correct. This is not adequate information. We are not given the finishing times of the runners, nor who won second.

Misinformation

Incorrect or erroneous information

Consistency bias

Incorrectly remembering one's past attitudes and behaviour as resembling present attitudes and behaviour.

Disliking/Hating Tendency

Increase the likability: "listen my business is not perfect but we care about you as our customers, if I have to stay up on a Saturday to help you I will" read how to win friend and influences people We also ignore the virtues of those things we dislike and distort the facts to facilitate that hatred while putting on blinders to other options and opinions.

Outgroup homogeneity bias

Individuals see members of their own group as being relatively more varied than members of other groups.

7. All reasoning contains inferences or interpretations by which we draw conclusions and give meaning to data.

Infer only what the evidence implies. Check inferences for their consistency with each other. Identify assumptions that lead you to your inferences. Make sure your inferences logically follow from the information.

All reasoning contains inferences by which one reaches conclusions and gives meaning to information

Infer only what the information implies Check your inferences for consistency with each other Identify assumptions that underlie your inferences Be sure your inferences logically stem from the information

In reasoning, we make __________ based on __________

Inferences/assumptions

Hasty generalization

Inferring a general proposition about something based on too small a sample or an unrepresentative sample.

hasty generalization

Inferring a general proposition about something based on too small a sample or an unrepresentative sample.

30: Penetrate their minds: Communication Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Infiltrate your ideas behind enemy lines, sending messages through little details. Lure people into coming to the conclusions you desire and into thinking they've gotten there by themselves.

Evidence

Information that is provided to support the dependability of a factual claim

15: Control the dynamic: Forcing Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Instead of trying to dominate the other side's every move, work to define the nature of the relationship itself. Control your opponent's mind, pushing emotional buttons and compelling them to make mistakes.

28: Give your rivals enough rope to hang themselves: One-upmanship Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Instill doubts and insecurities in rivals, getting them to think too much and act defensive. Make them hang themselves through their own self-destructive tendencies, leaving you blameless and clean.

Shirky principle

Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution.

Churn

Insurance companies and subscription services are well aware of the concept of churn - every year, a certain number of customers are lost and must be replaced. Standing still is the equivalent of losing, as seen in the model called the "Red Queen Effect." Churn is present in many business and human systems: A constant figure is periodically lost and must be replaced before any new figures are added over the top.

In strategic thinking, engaging and challenging your own thinking is which component?

Intellectual action is engaging and challenging your own thinking.

Uncritical Persons

Intellectually unskilled thinkers Socially conditioned beliefs Personal beliefs often grounded in prejudice Motivated by irrationality, personal vanity, intellectual arrogance Prone to emotional counter-attacks when thinking is questioned See themselves as "good" and opponents as "evil"

Red herring fallacy

Introducing an irrelevant point or topic to divert attention from the issue at hand.

red herring

Introducing an irrelevant point or topic to divert attention from the issue at hand. It is a tactic for confusing the point under debate.

Zero-sum heuristic

Intuitively judging a situation to be zero-sum (i.e., that gains and losses are correlated). Derives from the zero-sum game in game theory, where wins and losses sum to zero. The frequency with which this bias occurs may be related to the social dominance orientation personality factor.

Zero-sum heuristic

Intuitively judging a situation to be zero-sum (i.e., that gains and losses are correlated). Derives from the zero-sum game in game theory; where wins and losses sum to zero. The frequency with which this bias occurs may be related to the social dominance orientation personality factor.

We've been asked to provide an estimate of sales for next year. I think we can safely say that we will reduce costs 25 percent and improve profitability." Is this information relevant or irrelevant?

Irrelevant Correct. The information provided is not relevant to the question, which is asking for a sales forecast, not a cost forecast.

Which of the following statements best sums up Paul and Elder's criticism of shallow learning?

It doesn't produce lasting knowledge or comprehension.

Which of the following is not a characteristic of second-order thinking?

It relies on intuition. Second-order thinking is first-order thinking that is consciously realized (i.e., analyzed, assessed, and reconstructed). First-order thinking relies on intuition rather than reasoned thought.

Catharsis

It suggest that when you're angry, do not let it out on certain things it will just resemblance to anger actions. Just remove yourself from the situation, and relax your self with other activity that doesn't create aggression.

Tendency to Overgeneralize from Small Samples

It's important for human beings to generalize; we need not see every instance to understand the general rule, and this works to our advantage. With generalizing, however, comes a subset of errors when we forget about the Law of Large Numbers and act as if it does not exist. We take a small number of instances and create a general category, even if we have no statistically sound basis for the conclusion.

Which of the following statements about thinking through content would Paul and Elder NOT agree with?

It's possible to learn a body of content without thinking through the connections between its parts.

Shooter fallacy

Its coincidence: you just look at the portion thats they have in common, also you didn't research about its details. if hindsight and confirmation have a baby

Texas Sharpshooter

Jumping to the conclusion that a cluster in some data must be the result of a cause.

Sensitivity to Fairness

Justice runs deep in our veins. In another illustration of our relative sense of well-being, we are careful arbiters of what is fair. Violations of fairness can be considered grounds for reciprocal action, or at least distrust. Yet fairness itself seems to be a moving target. What is seen as fair and just in one time and place may not be in another. Consider that slavery has been seen as perfectly natural and perfectly unnatural in alternating phases of human existence.

Appeal to authority

Justifying a position by citing an expert or authority who supports it

Shared information bias

Known as the tendency for group members to spend more time and energy discussing information that all members are already familiar with (i.e., shared information), and less time and energy discussing information that only some members are aware of (i.e., unshared information).

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Latin for "after this therefore because of this." Arguing that because something follows something else it necessarily is the cause.

Non-Sequitur

Latin for "does not follow." An argument in which the conclusion does not follow from the premises.

Tu quoque

Latin for "you say": avoiding having to engage with criticism by turning it back on the accuser - answering criticism with criticism. Person 1 to 2: "Your argument is invalid." Person 2 to 1: "You make invalid arguments all of the time."

Law 1

Law 1 Never Outshine the Master Always make those above you feel comfortably superior. In your desire to please or impress them, do not go too far in displaying your talents or you might accomplish the opposite inspire fear and insecurity. Make your masters appear more brilliant than they are and you will attain the heights of power.

Law 10

Law 10 Infection: Avoid the Unhappy and Unlucky You can die from someone elses misery emotional states are as infectious as disease. You may feel you are helping the drowning man but you are only precipitating your own disaster. The unfortunate sometimes draw misfortune on themselves; they will also draw it on you. Associate with the happy and fortunate instead.

Law 11

Law 11 Learn to Keep People Dependent on You To maintain your independence you must always be needed and wanted. The more you are relied on, the more freedom you have. Make people depend on you for their happiness and prosperity and you have nothing to fear. Never teach them enough so that they can do without you.

Law 12

Law 12 Use Selective Honesty and Generosity to Disarm your Victim One sincere and honest move will cover over dozens of dishonest ones. Open-hearted gestures of honesty and generosity bring down the guard of even the most suspicious people. Once your selective honesty opens a hole in their armor, you can deceive and manipulate them at will. A timely gift a Trojan horse will serve the same purpose.

Law 13

Law 13 When Asking for Help, Appeal to Peoples Self-Interest, Never to their Mercy or Gratitude If you need to turn to an ally for help, do not bother to remind him of your past assistance and good deeds. He will find a way to ignore you. Instead, uncover something in your request, or in your alliance with him, that will benefit him, and emphasize it out of all proportion. He will respond enthusiastically when he sees something to be gained for himself.

Law 14

Law 14 Pose as a Friend, Work as a Spy Knowing about your rival is critical. Use spies to gather valuable information that will keep you a step ahead. Better still: Play the spy yourself. In polite social encounters, learn to probe. Ask indirect questions to get people to reveal their weaknesses and intentions. There is no occasion that is not an opportunity for artful spying.

Law 15

Law 15 Crush your Enemy Totally All great leaders since Moses have known that a feared enemy must be crushed completely. (Sometimes they have learned this the hard way.) If one ember is left alight, no matter how dimly it smolders, a fire will eventually break out. More is lost through stopping halfway than through total annihilation: The enemy will recover, and will seek revenge. Crush him, not only in body but in spirit.

Law 16

Law 16 Use Absence to Increase Respect and Honor Too much circulation makes the price go down: The more you are seen and heard from, the more common you appear. If you are already established in a group, temporary withdrawal from it will make you more talked about, even more admired. You must learn when to leave. Create value through scarcity.

Law 17

Law 17 Keep Others in Suspended Terror: Cultivate an Air of Unpredictability Humans are creatures of habit with an insatiable need to see familiarity in other peoples actions. Your predictability gives them a sense of control. Turn the tables: Be deliberately unpredictable. Behavior that seems to have no consistency or purpose will keep them off-balance, and they will wear themselves out trying to explain your moves. Taken to an extreme, this strategy can intimidate and terrorize.

Law 18

Law 18 Do Not Build Fortresses to Protect Yourself Isolation is Dangerous The world is dangerous and enemies are everywhere everyone has to protect themselves. A fortress seems the safest. But isolation exposes you to more dangers than it protects you from it cuts you off from valuable information, it makes you conspicuous and an easy target. Better to circulate among people find allies, mingle. You are shielded from your enemies by the crowd.

Law 19

Law 19 Know Who Youre Dealing with Do Not Offend the Wrong Person There are many different kinds of people in the world, and you can never assume that everyone will react to your strategies in the same way. Deceive or outmaneuver some people and they will spend the rest of their lives seeking revenge. They are wolves in lambs clothing. Choose your victims and opponents carefully, then never offend or deceive the wrong person.

Law 2

Law 2 Never put too Much Trust in Friends, Learn how to use Enemies Be wary of friends-they will betray you more quickly, for they are easily aroused to envy. They also become spoiled and tyrannical. But hire a former enemy and he will be more loyal than a friend, because he has more to prove. In fact, you have more to fear from friends than from enemies. If you have no enemies, find a way to make them.

Law 20

Law 20 Do Not Commit to Anyone It is the fool who always rushes to take sides. Do not commit to any side or cause but yourself. By maintaining your independence, you become the master of others playing people against one another, making them pursue you.

Law 21

Law 21 Play a Sucker to Catch a Sucker Seem Dumber than your Mark No one likes feeling stupider than the next persons. The trick, is to make your victims feel smart and not just smart, but smarter than you are. Once convinced of this, they will never suspect that you may have ulterior motives.

Law 22

Law 22 Use the Surrender Tactic: Transform Weakness into Power When you are weaker, never fight for honors sake; choose surrender instead. Surrender gives you time to recover, time to torment and irritate your conqueror, time to wait for his power to wane. Do not give him the satisfaction of fighting and defeating you surrender first. By turning the other check you infuriate and unsettle him. Make surrender a tool of power.

Law 23

Law 23 Concentrate Your Forces Conserve your forces and energies by keeping them concentrated at their strongest point. You gain more by finding a rich mine and mining it deeper, than by flitting from one shallow mine to another intensity defeats extensity every time. When looking for sources of power to elevate you, find the one key patron, the fat cow who will give you milk for a long time to come.

Law 24

Law 24 Play the Perfect Courtier The perfect courtier thrives in a world where everything revolves around power and political dexterity. He has mastered the art of indirection; he flatters, yields to superiors, and asserts power over others in the mot oblique and graceful manner. Learn and apply the laws of courtiership and there will be no limit to how far you can rise in the court.

Law 25

Law 25 Re-Create Yourself Do not accept the roles that society foists on you. Re-create yourself by forging a new identity, one that commands attention and never bores the audience. Be the master of your own image rather than letting others define if for you. Incorporate dramatic devices into your public gestures and actions your power will be enhanced and your character will seem larger than life.

Law 26

Law 26 Keep Your Hands Clean You must seem a paragon of civility and efficiency: Your hands are never soiled by mistakes and nasty deeds. Maintain such a spotless appearance by using others as scapegoats and cats-paws to disguise your involvement.

Law 27

Law 27 Play on Peoples Need to Believe to Create a Cultlike Following People have an overwhelming desire to believe in something. Become the focal point of such desire by offering them a cause, a new faith to follow. Keep your words vague but full of promise; emphasize enthusiasm over rationality and clear thinking. Give your new disciples rituals to perform, ask them to make sacrifices on your behalf. In the absence of organized religion and grand causes, your new belief system will bring you untold power.

Law 28

Law 28 Enter Action with Boldness If you are unsure of a course of action, do not attempt it. Your doubts and hesitations will infect your execution. Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity. Everyone admires the bold; no one honors the timid.

Law 29

Law 29 Plan All the Way to the End The ending is everything. Plan all the way to it, taking into account all the possible consequences, obstacles, and twists of fortune that might reverse your hard work and give the glory to others. By planning to the end you will not be overwhelmed by circumstances and you will know when to stop. Gently guide fortune and help determine the future by thinking far ahead.

Law 3

Law 3 Conceal your Intentions Keep people off-balance and in the dark by never revealing the purpose behind your actions. If they have no clue what you are up to, they cannot prepare a defense. Guide them far enough down the wrong path, envelope them in enough smoke, and by the time they realize your intentions, it will be too late.

Law 30

Law 30 Make your Accomplishments Seem Effortless Your actions must seem natural and executed with ease. All the toil and practice that go into them, and also all the clever tricks, must be concealed. When you act, act effortlessly, as if you could do much more. Avoid the temptation of revealing how hard you work it only raises questions. Teach no one your tricks or they will be used against you. Law

Law 31

Law 31 Control the Options: Get Others to Play with the Cards you Deal The best deceptions are the ones that seem to give the other person a choice: Your victims feel they are in control, but are actually your puppets. Give people options that come out in your favor whichever one they choose. Force them to make choices between the lesser of two evils, both of which serve your purpose. Put them on the horns of a dilemma: They are gored wherever they turn.

3232

Law 32 Play to Peoples Fantasies The truth is often avoided because it is ugly and unpleasant. Never appeal to truth and reality unless you are prepared for the anger that comes for disenchantment. Life is so harsh and distressing that people who can manufacture romance or conjure up fantasy are like oases in the desert: Everyone flocks to them. There is great power in tapping into the fantasies of the masses.

33

Law 33 Discover Each Mans Thumbscrew Everyone has a weakness, a gap in the castle wall. That weakness is usual y an insecurity, an uncontrollable emotion or need; it can also be a small secret pleasure. Either way, once found, it is a thumbscrew you can turn to your advantage.

34

Law 34 Be Royal in your Own Fashion: Act like a King to be treated like one The way you carry yourself will often determine how you are treated; In the long run, appearing vulgar or common will make people disrespect you. For a king respects himself and inspires the same sentiment in others. By acting regally and confident of your powers, you make yourself seem destined to wear a crown.

35

Law 35 Master the Art of Timing Never seem to be in a hurry hurrying betrays a lack of control over yourself, and over time. Always seem patient, as if you know that everything will come to you eventually. Become a detective of the right moment; sniff out the spirit of the times, the trends that will carry you to power. Learn to stand back when the time is not yet ripe, and to strike fiercely when it has reached fruition.

36

Law 36 Disdain Things you cannot have: Ignoring them is the best Revenge By acknowledging a petty problem you give it existence and credibility. The more attention you pay an enemy, the stronger you make him; and a small mistake is often made worse and more visible when you try to fix it. It is sometimes best to leave things alone. If there is something you want but cannot have, show contempt for it. The less interest you reveal, the more superior you seem.

37

Law 37 Create Compelling Spectacles Striking imagery and grand symbolic gestures create the aura of power everyone responds to them. Stage spectacles for those around you, then full of arresting visuals and radiant symbols that heighten your presence. Dazzled by appearances, no one will notice what you are really doing.

39

Law 39 Stir up Waters to Catch Fish Anger and emotion are strategically counterproductive. You must always stay calm and objective. But if you can make your enemies angry while staying calm yourself, you gain a decided advantage. Put your enemies off-balance: Find the chink in their vanity through which you can rattle them and you hold the strings.

Law 4

Law 4 Always Say Less than Necessary When you are trying to impress people with words, the more you say, the more common you appear, and the less in control. Even if you are saying something banal, it will seem original if you make it vague, open-ended, and sphinxlike. Powerful people impress and intimidate by saying less. The more you say, the more likely you are to say something foolish.

40

Law 40 Despise the Free Lunch What is offered for free is dangerous it usually involves either a trick or a hidden obligation. What has worth is worth paying for. By paying your own way you stay clear of gratitude, guilt, and deceit. It is also often wise to pay the full price there is no cutting corners with excellence. Be lavish with your money and keep it circulating, for generosity is a sign and a magnet for power.

41

Law 41 Avoid Stepping into a Great Mans Shoes What happens first always appears better and more original than what comes after. If you succeed a great man or have a famous parent, you will have to accomplish double their achievements to outshine them. Do not get lost in their shadow, or stuck in a past not of your own making: Establish your own name and identity by changing course. Slay the overbearing father, disparage his legacy, and gain power by shining in your own way.

42

Law 42 Strike the Shepherd and the Sheep will Scatter Trouble can often be traced to a single strong individual the stirrer, the arrogant underling, the poisoned of goodwill. If you allow such people room to operate, others will succumb to their influence. Do not wait for the troubles they cause to multiply, do not try to negotiate with them they are irredeemable. Neutralize their influence by isolating or banishing them. Strike at the source of the trouble and the sheep will scatter.

43

Law 43 Work on the Hearts and Minds of Others Coercion creates a reaction that will eventually work against you. You must seduce others into wanting to move in your direction. A person you have seduced becomes your loyal pawn. And the way to seduce others is to operate on their individual psychologies and weaknesses. Soften up the resistant by working on their emotions, playing on what they hold dear and what they fear. Ignore the hearts and minds of others and they will grow to hate you.

44

Law 44 Disarm and Infuriate with the Mirror Effect The mirror reflects reality, but it is also the perfect tool for deception: When you mirror your enemies, doing exactly as they do, they cannot figure out your strategy. The Mirror Effect mocks and humiliates them, making them overreact. By holding up a mirror to their psyches, you seduce them with the illusion that you share their values; by holding up a mirror to their actions, you teach them a lesson. Few can resist the power of Mirror Effect.

45

Law 45 Preach the Need for Change, but Never Reform too much at Once Everyone understands the need for change in the abstract, but on the day-to-day level people are creatures of habit. Too much innovation is traumatic, and will lead to revolt. If you are new to a position of power, or an outsider trying to build a power base, make a show of respecting the old way of doing things. If change is necessary, make it feel like a gentle improvement on the past.

46

Law 46 Never appear too Perfect Appearing better than others is always dangerous, but most dangerous of all is to appear to have no faults or weaknesses. Envy creates silent enemies. It is smart to occasionally display defects, and admit to harmless vices, in order to deflect envy and appear more human and approachable. Only gods and the dead can seem perfect with impunity.

47

Law 47 Do not go Past the Mark you Aimed for; In Victory, Learn when to Stop The moment of victory is often the moment of greatest peril. In the heat of victory, arrogance and overconfidence can push you past the goal you had aimed for, and by going too far, you make more enemies than you defeat. Do not allow success to go to your head. There is no substitute for strategy and careful planning. Set a goal, and when you reach it, stop.

47

Law 48 Assume Formlessness By taking a shape, by having a visible plan, you open yourself to attack. Instead of taking a form for your enemy to grasp, keep yourself adaptable and on the move. Accept the fact that nothing is certain and no law is fixed. The best way to protect yourself is to be as fluid and formless as water; never bet on stability or lasting order. Everything changes.

Law 5

Law 5 So Much Depends on Reputation Guard it with your Life Reputation is the cornerstone of power. Through reputation alone you can intimidate and win; once you slip, however, you are vulnerable, and will be attacked on all sides. Make your reputation unassailable. Always be alert to potential attacks and thwart them before they happen. Meanwhile, learn to destroy your enemies by opening holes in their own reputations. Then stand aside and let public opinion hang them.

Law 6

Law 6 Court Attention at all Cost Everything is judged by its appearance; what is unseen counts for nothing. Never let yourself get lost in the crowd, then, or buried in oblivion. Stand out. Be conspicuous, at all cost. Make yourself a magnet of attention by appearing larger, more colorful, more mysterious, than the bland and timid masses.

Law 7

Law 7 Get others to do the Work for you, but Always Take the Credit Use the wisdom, knowledge, and legwork of other people to further your own cause. Not only will such assistance save you valuable time and energy, it will give you a godlike aura of efficiency and speed. In the end your helpers will be forgotten and you will be remembered. Never do yourself what others can do for you.

Law 8

Law 8 Make other People come to you use Bait if Necessary When you force the other person to act, you are the one in control. It is always better to make your opponent come to you, abandoning his own plans in the process. Lure him with fabulous gains then attack. You hold the cards.

Law 9

Law 9 Win through your Actions, Never through Argument Any momentary triumph you think gained through argument is really a Pyrrhic victory: The resentment and ill will you stir up is stronger and lasts longer than any momentary change of opinion. It is much more powerful to get others to agree with you through your actions, without saying a word. Demonstrate, do not explicate.

Functional fixedness

Limits a person to using an object only in the way it is traditionally used.

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of an advanced thinker, as defined by Paul and Elder?

Making decisions by instinct

No True Scotsman

Making what could be called an appeal to purity as a way to dismiss relevant criticisms or flaws of an argument. John: "No Scotsman would ever drink wine." Jim: "But McDougal is a Scotsman and he drinks wine." John: "Well, no true Scotsman would ever drink wine."

Decision-making, belief, and behavioral biases

Many of these biases affect belief formation, business and economic decisions, and human behavior in general. They arise as a replicable result to a specific condition: when confronted with a specific situation, the deviation from what is normally expected can be characterized by:

Inert Information

Memorized information that is not fully understood.

Misinformation effect

Memory becoming less accurate because of interference from post-event information.

Stereotypical bias

Memory distorted towards stereotypes (e.g., racial or gender), e.g., "black-sounding" names being misremembered as names of criminals.

Leveling and Sharpening

Memory distortions introduced by the loss of details in a recollection over time, often concurrent with sharpening or selective recollection of certain details that take on exaggerated significance in relation to the details or aspects of the experience lost through leveling. Both biases may be reinforced over time, and by repeated recollection or re-telling of a memory.

Leveling and Sharpening

Memory distortions introduced by the loss of details in a recollection over time; often concurrent with sharpening or selective recollection of certain details that take on exaggerated significance in relation to the details or aspects of the experience lost through leveling. Both biases may be reinforced over time, and by repeated recollection or re-telling of a memory.

Which of the following best describes activated ignorance?

Mentally taking in and actively using false information

begging the question

Mercy killing is immoral because the taking of innocent life is morally wrong.

Normalcy bias

Mind soothing/tricking everything is just fine. Thus During crisis, people pretend everything will continue to be fine and predictable as it is before. If they have not seen anything like it before. Things go mundane everyday and then something occur. Your brain is stick with normal situation and not seeing the impossible is coming. If the news say the stock market is bad, but the stock price is not down yet, you will likely not selling your stock unless it is going down alot. By that point it is too late.

There are number of reasons why it can be very difficult to get accurate or precise statistics about our conduct in the real world. Some obstacles include:

Misinformation (i.e., incorrect or erroneous information) or deliberately false information Unreported or undisclosed information Unobservable events

Strawman

Misrepresenting someone else's argument to make it easier to attack.

Which of the following terms expresses the value which appears most frequently in a series of values?

Mode

technical definition of antifragility

More technically, Taleb defines antifragility as a nonlinear response: "Simply, antifragility is defined as a convex response to a stressor or source of harm (for some range of variation), leading to a positive sensitivity to increase in volatility (or variability, stress, dispersion of outcomes, or uncertainty, what is grouped under the designation "disorder cluster").

Hierarchical and Other Organizing Instincts

Most complex biological organisms have an innate feel for how they should organize. While not all of them end up in hierarchical structures, many do, especially in the animal kingdom. Human beings like to think they are outside of this, but they feel the hierarchical instinct as strongly as any other organism.

Leverage

Most of the engineering marvels of the world have been accomplished with applied leverage. As famously stated by Archimedes, "Give me a lever long enough and I shall move the world." With a small amount of input force, we can make a great output force through leverage. Understanding where we can apply this model to the human world can be a source of great success.

Niches

Most organisms find a niche: a method of competing and behaving for survival. Usually, a species will select a niche for which it is best adapted. The danger arises when multiple species begin competing for the same niche, which can cause an extinction - there can be only so many species doing the same thing before limited resources give out.

Mr. Market

Mr. Market was introduced by the investor Benjamin Graham in his seminal book The Intelligent Investor to represent the vicissitudes of the financial markets. As Graham explains, the markets are a bit like a moody neighbor, sometimes waking up happy and sometimes waking up sad - your job as an investor is to take advantage of him in his bad moods and sell to him in his good moods. This attitude is contrasted to an efficient-market hypothesis in which Mr. Market always wakes up in the middle of the bed, never feeling overly strong in either direction.

Pareto Principle

Named for Italian polymath Vilfredo Pareto, who noticed that 80% of Italy's land was owned by about 20% of its population, the Pareto Principle states that a small amount of some phenomenon causes a disproportionately large effect. The Pareto Principle is an example of a power-law type of statistical distribution - as distinguished from a traditional bell curve - and is demonstrated in various phenomena ranging from wealth to city populations to important human habits.

Third Rail

Noun: a controversial issue usually avoided by politicians; a volatile and politically deadly issue/policy left alone by politicians for fear of public opinion.

CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING AN AUTHOR'S REASONING

Now that you have worked through the logic of an article or a textbook, or both, you are ready to assess the author's reasoning by focusing on how well the author uses each of the elements of reasoning within the article or book. Choose the logic of either the article or the textbook. For the one you choose, go through each of the elements, or parts, of the author's reasoning and evaluate them using the intellectual standards outlined here: 1. Focusing on the author's purpose: Is the purpose well-stated? Is it clear and justifiable? 2. Focusing on the key question that the written piece answers: Is the question at issue well-stated (or clearly implied)? Is it clear and unbiased? Does the expression of the question do justice to the complexity of the matter at issue? Are the question and purpose directly relevant to each other? 3. Focusing on the most important information the author presents: Does the writer cite relevant evidence, experiences, and information essential to the issue? Is the information accurate and directly relevant to the question at issue? Does the writer address the complexities of the issue? 4. Focusing on the most fundamental concepts at the heart of the author's reasoning: Does the writer clarify key concepts when necessary? Are the concepts used justifiably? 5. Focusing on the author's assumptions: Does the writer show a sensitivity to what he or she is taking for granted or assuming (insofar as those assumptions might reasonably be questioned)? Or does the writer use questionable assumptions without addressing problems that might be inherent in those assumptions? 6. Focusing on the most important inferences or conclusions in the written piece: Do the inferences and conclusions the author makes follow clearly from the information relevant to the issue, or does the author jump to unjustifiable conclusions? Does the author consider alternative conclusions where the issue is complex? Does the author use a sound line of reasoning to come to logical conclusions, or can you identify flaws in the reasoning somewhere? 7. Focusing on the author's point of view: Does the author show a sensitivity to alternative relevant points of view or lines of reasoning? Does he or she consider and respond to objections framed from other relevant points of view? 8. Focusing on implications: Does the writer show a sensitivity to the implications and consequences of the position he or she is taking?

Egocentric bias

Occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would credit them with.

Egocentric bias

Occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would credit them.

Bribery

Often ignored in mainstream economics, the concept of bribery is central to human systems: Given the chance, it is often easier to pay a certain agent to look the other way than to follow the rules. The enforcer of the rules is then neutralized. This principle/agent problem can be seen as a form of arbitrage.

Hindsight Bias

Once we know the outcome, it's nearly impossible to turn back the clock mentally. Our narrative instinct leads us to reason that we knew it all along (whatever "it" is), when in fact we are often simply reasoning post-hoc with information not available to us before the event. The hindsight bias explains why it's wise to keep a journal of important decisions for an unaltered record and to re-examine our beliefs when we convince ourselves that we knew it all along.

Double-Entry Bookkeeping

One of the marvels of modern capitalism has been the bookkeeping system introduced in Genoa in the 14th century. The double-entry system requires that every entry, such as income, also be entered into another corresponding account. Correct double-entry bookkeeping acts as a check on potential accounting errors and allows for accurate records and thus, more accurate behavior by the owner of a firm.

Seeing the Front

One of the most valuable military tactics is the habit of "personally seeing the front" before making decisions - not always relying on advisors, maps, and reports, all of which can be either faulty or biased. The Map/Territory model illustrates the problem with not seeing the front, as does the incentive model. Leaders of any organization can generally benefit from seeing the front, as not only does it provide firsthand information, but it also tends to improve the quality of secondhand information.

Inversion

Otherwise known as thinking through a situation in reverse or thinking "backwards," inversion is a problem-solving technique. Often by considering what we want to avoid rather than what we want to get, we come up with better solutions. Inversion works not just in mathematics but in nearly every area of life. As the saying goes, "Just tell me where I'm going to die so I can never go there."

Experimenter's bias / Observer effect / Expectation bias

Our expectations during obvservation can bias the outcome.

Weber-Fechner law

Our perceived change of a sensation is not proportionate to the actual change of the stimuli.

Attentional bias

Our perception is affected by our current thinking, so we fail to consider alternative possibilities.

Rival Causes The use of evidence to establish causation—to show that one thing caused another thing—introduces the problem of rival causes. A rival cause is a plausible alternative explanation for why a certain outcome happened. Consider the following example.

Outcome The ace of the pitching staff is recording fewer strikeouts now than he did earlier in the season. Cause proposed After reviewing video of his ace's last couple of outings, the manager believes he has identified the problem: the pitcher is unconsciously tipping off batters when he's about to throw his fastball. Rival cause The pitching coach blames the decline on a tired arm. He says radar gun readings from the ace's last couple of outings show that his fastball has lost some velocity.

Over-Optimism Tendency

Over over optimist People react to "Greed" advertisement or saying. I got a pill that will help you lose 30lbs of weight in 7 days.

Illusory superiority

Overestimating one's desirable qualities and underestimating undesirable qualities; relative to other people. (Also known as "Lake Wobegon effect," "better-than-average effect," or "superiority bias").

Illusory superiority

Overestimating one's desirable qualities, and underestimating undesirable qualities, relative to other people. (Also known as "Lake Wobegon effect", "better-than-average effect", or "superiority bias".)

Travis Syndrome

Overestimating the significance of the present.

Egocentric immediacy

Overgeneralizing so that immediate events, whether favorable or unfavorable, influence thinking

Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial

Pain denial- people will avoid the unhealthy fact just because of the benefit of it. like dangerous bungee jumping or Mc donald foods. We have a habit of distorting the facts until they become bearable for our own views.

Selling out

People compete for scarcity and when it become abundant people start to looks for other scarcity items.

The ad hominem fallacy

People judge the persons idea mostly influence by their characters and back ground.

Reason-Respecting Tendency

People just need a answer why they should buy it. Tell them why they should buy it, not the best but it will do certain things that suite them Some people just want the answers, not the reasons or a better understanding.

Backfire effect

People often react to disconfirming evidence by strengthening their beliefs

Illusion of transparency

People overestimate others' ability to know them, and they also overestimate their ability to know others.

Illusion of asymmetric insight

People perceive their knowledge of their peers to surpass their peers' knowledge of them.

Supernormal releasers

People react to positive incentives, women loves guys who have status and rich, men love women with bountiful set of breast and .70 hip to waist ratios. Thus It is normal that men have sex with dolls and women love old rich guys.

The third person effect

People think that most persuasive ads cannot affect them but others. Little did they know everyone have the same mindset as they have.

Twaddle Tendency

People want a lot of contents. Add more contents about our marketing, etc... Twaddle: nonsense Basically, spending too much time on nonsense.

Envy/Jealousy Tendency

People wanted something that other have but they don't. Good example: speaker bring up the people that bought the program, that they get a bag and other cool programs that will benefit them, thus you will get jealous and go buy it. Self-explanatory, but Munger makes an interesting point that envy and jealously are surprisingly absent from most psych textbooks.

Liking/Loving Tendency

People will likely to listen to their idol more than others. If adolf hitler say 2+2=4 but oprah say 2+2=5, people will say oprah is right. If youre the agent and their friend is an agent they will buy from their friend We ignore the faults of other people, products or companies that we admire.

Self-serving bias

People, your friends, hunan in general will think they have superior over you. However, they do not tend to compare them-self with successful people.

Subjective validation

Perception that something is true if a subject's belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.

4: Create a sense of urgency and desperation: Death-ground Strategy SELF-DIRECTED WARFARE

Place yourself where your back is against the wall and you have to fight like hell to get out alive.

What are the three kinds of implications that may be involved in any situation?

Possible, probable, necessary

Zero-risk bias

Preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.

Decoy effect

Preferences for either option A or B changes in favor of option B when option C is presented, which is similar to option B but in no way better.

successively ruling out non-causal factors until one correct causal factor remains

Process of elimination In analyzing causation,

Negativity bias

Psychological phenomenon by which humans have a greater recall of unpleasant memories compared with positive memories.

What is the term for the goal or desired outcome of our reasoning?

Purpose

Purpose

Purpose is the goal or objective of reasoning. It describes the desired outcome or intent (e.g., winning an argument, grasping a complex concept, justifying one's behavior). We can identify purpose in anything that entails reasoning. The critical thinker always asks what function reasoning serves and in what direction it is moving.

Which kind of evidence describes the meaning (i.e., the why and how) of something?

Qualitative

A research study is an example of which kind of evidence?

Quantitative

Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, and analyzing _________.

Quantitative data

A question with competing and debatable answers

Question of judgment

A Question with many possible subjective answers

Question of preference

Depth

Questions focusing on depth of thought include: How does your answer address the complexities in the question? How are you taking into account the problems in the question? How are you dealing with the most significant factors in the problem?

Breadth

Questions focusing on making thinking broader include: Do we need to consider another point of view? Is there another way to look at this question? What would this look like from a conservative standpoint? What would this look like from the point of view of ...?

Precision

Questions focusing on making thinking more precise include: Could you give me more details? Could you be more specific?

Relevance

Questions focusing on relevance include: How is this idea connected to the question? How does that bear on the issue? How does this idea relate to this other idea? How does your question relate to the issue we are dealing with?

These questions have more than one answer, with some answers better than others.

Questions of judgment have competing answers, with some better than others.

Clarity

Questions that focus on clarity include: Could you elaborate on that point? Could you express that point in another way? Could you give me an illustration? Could you give me an example? Let me state in my own words what I think you just said. Tell me if I am clear about your meaning.

Fairness

Questions that focus on ensuring that thinking is fair include: Is my thinking justified given the evidence? Am I taking into account the weight of the evidence that others might advance in the situation? Are these assumptions justified? Is my purpose fair given the implications of my behavior? Is the manner in which I am addressing the problem fair—or is my vested interest keeping me from considering the problem from alternative viewpoints? Am I using concepts justifiably, or am I using them unfairly to manipulate someone (to selfishly get what I want)?

Logic

Questions that focus on making thinking more logical include: Does all of this fit together logically? Does this really make sense? Does that follow from what you said? How does that follow from the evidence? Before, you implied this, and now you are saying that. I don't see how both can be true.

Significance

Questions that focus on making thinking more significant include: What is the most significant information we need to address this issue? How is that fact important in context? Which of these questions is the most significant? Which of these ideas or concepts is the most important?

The mind drawing conclusions on the basis of reasons defines which process?

REASONING

In reasoning through any problem, a well-cultivated critical thinker:

Raises vital questions Gathers and assesses relevant information Reaches well-reasoned conclusions and solutions Thinks open-mindedly Communicates effectively with others

Points of view

Reasoning always takes place within some point of view. It has some comprehensive focus or orientation. The same issue considered from different points of view may appear not at all the same. Each of us is at the center of our own point of view. We see from our vantage point. The critical thinker must be able to identify within which point of view reasoning occurs. From what perspective or angle (e.g., conservative or liberal, religious or secular, political or cultural) is an issue being looked at or characterized?

Implications and consequences

Reasoning delivers us to a position or viewpoint about something. The implications of our reasoning are what extend beyond the position we reach. They form the answer to the question, "What follows from our reasoning?" Suppose we reason to the conclusion that tobacco should be banned by law because tobacco is a grave public health hazard. One implication of our reasoning might be that a ban should also be considered on the sale of high-fat foods, which are implicated in epidemics of cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

Assumptions

Reasoning has to begin somewhere. It begins with our assumptions. These encompass everything we take for granted as true in order to figure out something else. For example, suppose you're the new general manager of a pro baseball team that just finished in last place. As you undertake to improve the team, you might assume that... Its won-lost record reflects its talent level You need better players You must spend more money to upgrade your roster Assumptions are always present in any form of reasoning. They lie at the heart of arguments. But people usually don't openly express their core assumptions when they reason. Being able to identify assumptions (others' and our own) is essential to critical thinking.

Assessing Information

Reasoning requires some information as part of one's thinking. As critical thinkers, we must: Seek trustworthy information sources Be vigilant about information sources we use Be alert to the use we make of our own experience, which could be biased, distorted, or self-deluded. (As Paul and Elder point out, biased experience supports bias, distorted experience supports distortion, and self-deluded experience supports self-delusion)

Concepts

Reasoning takes form in concepts. These are general categories or ideas by which we interpret or classify information used in our thinking. When we think about anything (for example, a new law), we reason based on some concept of that thing (for example, its fairness or unfairness). The concept, not the thing itself, is what we hold in our mind as our understanding of it. Most of us take our concepts for granted. Critical thinking requires us to be aware of the concepts we hold and consider how they drive our reasoning.

Egocentric bias

Recalling the past in a self-serving manner, e.g., remembering one's exam grades as being better than they were, or remembering a caught fish as bigger than it really was.

faulty analogy

Reducing taxes to spur job growth is like cutting calories to gain weight.

denying inconsistencies

Refusing to admit contradictions or inconsistencies when making an argument or defending a position.

The public goods game

Regulations will prevent cheaters. Because if one person cheat and another person see it,that person will also cheat because he don't want to be at loss.

Law of Diminishing Returns

Related to scale, most important real-world results are subject to an eventual decrease of incremental value. A good example would be a poor family: Give them enough money to thrive, and they are no longer poor. But after a certain point, additional money will not improve their lot; there is a clear diminishing return of additional dollars at some roughly quantifiable point. Often, the law of diminishing returns veers into negative territory - i.e., receiving too much money could destroy the poor family.

Which report of risk reduction conveys a more significant treatment effect?

Relative Expressing risk reduction in relative rather than absolute terms conveys a far more significant treatment effect.

Spotlight effect

Research had shown that people disregard your appearance as soon as they see you. Where as you see yourself as the center of the universe and they pay attention to everything that you do.

5. All reasoning is based on data, information, and evidence.

Restrict your claims to those supported by the data you have. Search for information that opposes your position as well as information that supports it. Make sure that all information you use is clear, accurate, and relevant to the question at issue. Make sure you have gathered sufficient information. Make sure, especially, that you have considered all significant information relevant to the issue.

Lag effect

See spacing effect.

Sociocentrism

Seeing social conventions, beliefs and taboos of your society as the only correct way to live and think.

17: Defeat them in detail: Divide and Conquer Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Separate the parts and sow dissension and division. Turn a large problem into small, eminently defeat able parts.

Ultimate attribution error

Similar to the fundamental attribution error in this error a person is likely to make an internal attribution to an entire group instead of the individuals within the group.

Ultimate attribution error

Similar to the fundamental attribution error, in this error a person is likely to make an internal attribution to an entire group instead of the individuals within the group.

Margin of Safety

Similarly, engineers have also developed the habit of adding a margin for error into all calculations. In an unknown world, driving a 9,500-pound bus over a bridge built to hold precisely 9,600 pounds is rarely seen as intelligent. Thus, on the whole, few modern bridges ever fail. In practical life outside of physical engineering, we can often profitably give ourselves margins as robust as the bridge system.

In analyzing causation, looking for a causal factor that is present in one situation but absent in another similar situation

Single difference method

A systematic, disciplined approach to asking questions aimed at assessing truth

Socratic questioning

Hindsight bias

Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable at the time those events happened.

Hindsight bias

Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect; the tendency to see past events as being predictable at the time those events happened.

Domain Dependence

Sometimes we understand something in one area but fail to carry over the underlying logic into another domain. Many statisticians understand statistics, but still get tripped up by simple thought experiments. People will take an elevator to the gym to use the stairmaster.

Mutually Assured Destruction

Somewhat paradoxically, the stronger two opponents become, the less likely they may be to destroy one another. This process of mutually assured destruction occurs not just in warfare, as with the development of global nuclear warheads, but also in business, as with the avoidance of destructive price wars between competitors. However, in a fat-tailed world, it is also possible that mutually assured destruction scenarios simply make destruction more severe in the event of a mistake (pushing destruction into the "tails" of the distribution).

Adaptation

Species tend to adapt to their surroundings in order to survive, given the combination of their genetics and their environment - an always-unavoidable combination. However, adaptations made in an individual's lifetime are not passed down genetically, as was once thought: Populations of species adapt through the process of evolution by natural selection, as the most-fit examples of the species replicate at an above-average rate.

14: Overwhelm resistance with speed and suddenness: Blitzkrieg Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

Speed is power. Striking first, before enemies have time to think or prepare will make them emotional, unbalanced, and prone to error.

All reasoning seeks to settle some question

State the question clearly and precisely Clarify the question's meaning and scope by expressing it several ways Determine whether the question has one right answer, is a matter of opinion, or demands reasoning from more than one point of view Think through the question deeply (plumb its complexities)

All reasoning has a purpose

State your purpose clearly Choose a significant purpose Distinguish it from related purposes Make sure it is fair in context Periodically check to be sure you remain focused on your purpose

Stress-Influence Tendency

Stress convince people to buy your product. create stress by: tell a story about somebody didn't do what you offer and someone that do. compare the reward and show them the punishment Adrenaline tends to produce faster and more extreme reactions. Some stress can improve performance but heavy stress often leads to dysfunction.

Fair-minded critical persons

Strong-sense critical thinkers Reject manipulation and controlling others Combine critical thinking skills with desire to serve public good Want all points of view expressed Want manipulative persuasion exposed

two wrongs make right

Sure, I fudge the numbers on my tax return, but so does everybody.

Antifragility

Systems that benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty.

Data is a type of information.

TRUE, Examples of information include data, facts, experiences and observations, and word of mouth. Information that plays a role in thinking and argumentation must be carefully analyzed.

29: Take small bites: Fait Accompli Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Take small bites to play on people's short attention span. Before they notice, you may acquire an empire.

2. All reasoning is an attempt to figure out something, to settle some question, solve some problem.

Take time to state the question at issue clearly and precisely. Express the question in several ways to clarify its meaning and scope. Break the question into sub-questions (when you can). Identify the type of question you are dealing with (historical, economic, biological, etc.) and whether the question has one right answer, is a matter of mere opinion, or requires reasoning from more than one point of view. Think-through the complexities of the question (think-through the question deeply).

1. All reasoning has a purpose.

Take time to state your purpose clearly. Choose significant and realistic purposes. Distinguish your purpose from related purposes. Make sure your purpose is fair in context (that it doesn't involve violating the rights of others). Check periodically to be sure you are still focused on your purpose and haven't wandered from your target.

Fragile & Antifragile Jobs- The taxi driver vs the bank employee

Taleb also shows the dichotomy between certain lines of work and their fragility. As an author for example, nothing he can do that generates attention will reduce the sale of his books. However if you're a midlevel executive employee at some bank, if you punch out an annoying drunk in a bar you will likely get fired, get an arrest record, and be unhirable. You're extremely fragile. And then again at the lower end of the spectrum say as a taxi driver, you have more freedom again because you are not so dependent on your reputation.

Aging

Taleb argues, is hastened by a lack of stress. We are living longer but people are more sick. All of our comfort has been detrimental to our healthspans. We thought aging causes bone degradation, but it seems that bone degradation causes aging.

Stoicism

Taleb invokes stoic principles on multiple occasions as ways of handling randomness and becoming more antifragile. For example success can make you fragile, because you now have much more to lose than you did before. You're afraid of becoming poor. The stoic technique of "practicing poverty" helps reduce your fragility from being afraid of losing your wealth.

The Procrustean Bed

Taleb uses the "Procrustean Bed" story to demonstrate how we create harm by reducing variations. Procrustes would capture travelers and put them in his bed stretching them on a rack if they were too short for it or chopping off their extremities if they were too tall. When we destroy variations to fit a model, we do similar harm.

Conservatism or Regressive bias

Tendency to remember high values and high likelihoods/probabilities/frequencies as lower than they actually were and low ones as higher than they actually were. Based on the evidence, memories are not extreme enough

33: Sow uncertainty and panic through acts of terror: Chain Reaction Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Terror can paralyze a people's will to resist and destroy their ability to plan a strategic response. The goal is to cause maximum chaos and provoke a desperate overreaction. To counter terror, stay balanced and rational.

Next-in-line effect

That a person in a group has diminished recall for the words of others who spoke immediately before himself if they take turns speaking.

Next-in-line effect

That a person in a group has diminished recall for the words of others who spoke immediately before himself, if they take turns speaking.

Part-list cueing effect

That being shown some items from a list and later retrieving one item causes it to become harder to retrieve the other items

Context effect

That cognition and memory are dependent on context, such that out-of-context memories are more difficult to retrieve than in-context memories (e.g., recall time and accuracy for a work-related memory will be lower at home, and vice versa)

Context effect

That cognition and memory are dependent on context; such that out-of-context memories are more difficult to retrieve than in-context memories (e.g.; recall time and accuracy for a work-related memory will be lower at home; and vice versa)

Levels-of-processing effect

That different methods of encoding information into memory have different levels of effectiveness.

Humor effect

That humorous items are more easily remembered than non-humorous ones, which might be explained by the distinctiveness of humor, the increased cognitive processing time to understand the humor, or the emotional arousal caused by the humor.

Humor effect

That humorous items are more easily remembered than non-humorous ones; which might be explained by the distinctiveness of humor; the increased cognitive processing time to understand the humor; or the emotional arousal caused by the humor.

Spacing effect

That information is better recalled if exposure to it is repeated over a long span of time rather than a short one.

Processing difficulty effect

That information that takes longer to read and is thought about more (processed with more difficulty) is more easily remembered.

Primacy effect & Recency effect & Serial position effect

That items near the end of a sequence are the easiest to recall, followed by the items at the beginning of a sequence; items in the middle are the least likely to be remembered.

Primacy effect, Recency effect & Serial position effect

That items near the end of a sequence are the easiest to recall, followed by the items at the beginning of a sequence; items in the middle are the least likely to be remembered.

Self-relevance effect

That memories relating to the self are better recalled than similar information relating to others.

Modality effect

That memory recall is higher for the last items of a list when the list items were received via speech than when they were received through writing.

Positivity effect

That older adults favor positive over negative information in their memories.

Illusion of truth effect

That people are more likely to identify as true statements those they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them), regardless of the actual validity of the statement. In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.

Illusion of truth effect

That people are more likely to identify as true statements those they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them); regardless of the actual validity of the statement. In other words; a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.

Peak-end rule

That people seem to perceive not the sum of an experience but the average of how it was at its peak (e.g. pleasant or unpleasant) and how it ended.

hasty generalization

That rookie quarterback is lousy. In his first 2 games as a pro, he threw 4 interceptions and no touchdowns. He's a bust!

Generation effect (Self-generation effect)

That self-generated information is remembered best. For instance, people are better able to recall memories of statements that they have generated than similar statements generated by others.

Verbatim effect

That the "gist" of what someone has said is better remembered than the verbatim wording.This is because memories are representations, not exact copies.

Zeigarnik effect

That uncompleted or interrupted tasks are remembered better than completed ones.

Bayesian Updating

The Bayesian method is a method of thought (named for Thomas Bayes) whereby one takes into account all prior relevant probabilities and then incrementally updates them as newer information arrives. This method is especially productive given the fundamentally non-deterministic world we experience: We must use prior odds and new information in combination to arrive at our best decisions. This is not necessarily our intuitive decision-making engine.

The Green Lumber Fallacy

The Green Lumber Fallacy refers to a kind of fallacy where one confuses one important kind of knowledge (less visible from the outside, less tractable) for another one... how many things we call "relevant knowledge" aren't so much so"

Prisoner's Dilemma

The Prisoner's Dilemma is a famous application of game theory in which two prisoners are both better off cooperating with each other, but if one of them cheats, the other is better off cheating. Thus the dilemma. This model shows up in economic life, in war, and in many other areas of practical human life. Though the prisoner's dilemma theoretically leads to a poor result, in the real world, cooperation is nearly always possible and must be explored.

Two-Front War

The Second World War was a good example of a two-front war. Once Russia and Germany became enemies, Germany was forced to split its troops and send them to separate fronts, weakening their impact on either front. In practical life, opening a two-front war can often be a useful tactic, as can solving a two-front war or avoiding one, as in the example of an organization tamping down internal discord to focus on its competitors.

Confabulation

The act of filling in memory gaps

Technology Adoption Life Cycle

The amount of time it takes a person or a company to accept and use emerging technology

Second-order thinking

The assumptions we've relied upon may be flawed. Let's review them again. I'd like to talk this over with some colleagues. They may have some insights we are missing. As far as I am concerned, you're headed down the wrong path on this project, and I'm rarely wrong on these matters. I didn't completely understand the repercussions of my original decision, and so now I have changed my mind and I am recommending a new approach.This is an example of second-order thinking, which is self-correcting.

Asymmetric Warfare

The asymmetry model leads to an application in warfare whereby one side seemingly "plays by different rules" than the other side due to circumstance. Generally, this model is applied by an insurgency with limited resources. Unable to out-muscle their opponents, asymmetric fighters use other tactics, as with terrorism creating fear that's disproportionate to their actual destructive ability.

Median

The average represented by the middle value in a series of values

Supply and Demand

The basic equation of biological and economic life is one of limited supply of necessary goods and competition for those goods. Just as biological entities compete for limited usable energy, so too do economic entities compete for limited customer wealth and limited demand for their products. The point at which supply and demand for a given good are equal is called an equilibrium; however, in practical life, equilibrium points tend to be dynamic and changing, never static.

Egocentrism

The belief that one's own thinking or life is superior to others

The Gambler's Fallacy

The belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn't occurred recently.

Gambler's Fallacy

The belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn't occurred recently; The error of thinking that previous events can affect the probabilities in the random event at hand

Naïve realism

The belief that we see reality as it really is - objectively and without bias; that the facts are plain for all to see; that rational people will agree with us; and that those who don't are either uninformed, lazy, irrational, or biased.

Naïve realism

The belief that we see reality as it really is - objectively and without bias; that the facts are plain for all to see; that rational people will agree with us; and that those who don't are either uninformed; lazy, irrational; or biased.

Group attribution error

The biased belief that the characteristics of an individual group member are reflective of the group as a whole or the tendency to assume that group decision outcomes reflect the preferences of group members, even when information is available that clearly suggests otherwise.

To make an movement or action

The brain go through cognition, perception, comprehension, decision, implementing, and then movement

25: Occupy the moral high ground: Righteousness Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

The cause you are fighting for must seem more just than the enemy's. Questioning their motives and making enemies appear evil can narrow their base of support and room to maneuver. When you come under moral attack from a clever enemy, don't whine or get angry--fight fire with fire.

Self consistency bias

The commonly held idea that we are more consistent in our attitudes and opinions

6: Segment your forces: Controlled-chaos Strategy ORGANIZATIONAL WARFARE

The critical elements in war are speed and adaptability--the ability to move and make decisions faster than the enemy. Break your forces into independent groups that can operate on their own. Give them the spirit of the campaign, a mission to accomplish, and room to run.

framing effect

The decision-making bias that results from the way a decision, question, or problem is worded; decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated

Observation selection bias

The effect of suddenly noticing things that were not noticed previously - and as a result wrongly assuming that the frequency has increased.

When confronted with a more powerful or prestigious person who can help them achieve their goals, an egocentric thinker is likely to turn to which of the following strategies?

The egocentric thinker is likely to turn to submission, catering to those who can help them achieve their goals.

The elements of reasoning are also known as the:

The elements of reasoning are also known as the parts of thinking and fundamental structures of thought.

Contrast effect

The enhancement or reduction of a certain perception's stimuli when compared with a recently observed, contrasting object.

Relative Satisfaction/Misery Tendencies

The envy tendency is probably the most obvious manifestation of the relative satisfaction tendency, but nearly all studies of human happiness show that it is related to the state of the person relative to either their past or their peers, not absolute. These relative tendencies cause us great misery or happiness in a very wide variety of objectively different situations and make us poor predictors of our own behavior and feelings.

Inflation of conflict

The experts of a field of knowledge disagree on a certain point, so the scholars must know nothing, and therefore the legitimacy of their entire field is put to question.

Endowment effect

The fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.[32]

Testing effect

The fact that you more easily remember information you have read by rewriting it instead of rereading it.

Neglect of a common cause

The failure to recognize that 2 events may be related through the effects of a common third factor

26: Deny them targets: The Void Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

The feeling of emptiness is intolerable for most people. Give enemies no target to attach. Be dangerous and elusive, and let them chase you into the void. Deliver irritating but damaging side attacks and pinpricks.

Statistical distribution

The frequency with which each value in a series of values occurs

Statistical range

The gap between the smallest and largest values in a series of values

Frequency illusion

The illusion in which a word, a name or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards (see also recency illusion).Colloquially, this illusion is known as the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon.

Frequency illusion

The illusion in which a word, a name, or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards (not to be confused with the recency illusion or selection bias). Colloquially, this illusion is known as the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon.

Recency illusion

The illusion that a word or language usage is a recent innovation when it is in fact long-established (see also frequency illusion).

search for perfect solution

The immigration reform law has its merits. But I cannot support it because it fails to address the problem of illegal immigration on all fronts.

Mood-congruent memory bias

The improved recall of information congruent with one's current mood.

Hindsight bias

The inclination to see past events as being more predictable than they actually were; also called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect.

The Map Is Not the Territory

The map of reality is not reality itself. If any map were to represent its actual territory with perfect fidelity, it would be the size of the territory itself. Thus, no need for a map! This model tells us that there will always be an imperfect relationship between reality and the models we use to represent and understand it. This imperfection is a necessity in order to simplify. It is all we can do to accept this and act accordingly.

A mechanic ruled out failures in 10 different engine parts before finding the problem in the carburetor. This is an example of:

The mechanic is using the process of elimination.

Social-Proof Tendency

The more acceptance of your product from the society, people will buy your product. Don't just put celebrity using your product, civilian too. This is when we tend to think and act like those around us. It's the herd mentality.

Bystander effect

The more people surround you, the less likely you will be the one stand up from the crowd and help the person. Oppose to being alone in that situation. You fear of being ambarass and ur think ur lazy. If you want to stand out, be the only one who help.

Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA)

The most advantageous alternative course of action a party can take if negotiations fail and an agreement cannot be reached.

Duration neglect

The neglect of the duration of an episode in determining its value

Bell Curve/Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is a statistical process that leads to the well-known graphical representation of a bell curve, with a meaningful central "average" and increasingly rare standard deviations from that average when correctly sampled. (The so-called "central limit" theorem.) Well-known examples include human height and weight, but it's just as important to note that many common processes, especially in non-tangible systems like social systems, do not follow the normal distribution.

Picture superiority effect

The notion that concepts that are learned by viewing pictures are more easily and frequently recalled than are concepts that are learned by viewing their written word form counterparts.

magic number 7 (+ or - 2)

The number of single items of information that the average short-term memory can hold at one time.

Forer effect or Barnum effect

The observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, graphology, and some types of personality tests.

Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency

The older we get, we will naturally lose certain skills and abilities. To prevent this, continue to think and learning. As we age there is a natural loss of certain skills and abilities. Continuous thinking and learning helps to slow the decay.

Procedural Justice

The perceived fairness of the process used to determine the distribution of rewards/consequences

Moral Luck

The phenomenon that the moral goodness or badness of some of our actions depends simply on chance.

Irrational escalation

The phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. Also known as the sunk cost fallacy.

Dunbar's Number

The primatologist Robin Dunbar observed through study that the number of individuals a primate can get to know and trust closely is related to the size of its neocortex. Extrapolating from his study of primates, Dunbar theorized that the Dunbar number for a human being is somewhere in the 100-250 range, which is supported by certain studies of human behavior and social networks.

Bayes' Theorem

The probability of an event occurring based upon other event probabilities; posterior = (likelihood x prior)/evidence

Research sampling

The process of selecting events or people to study

The Green Lumber Fallacy origin story

The protagonist makes a big discovery. He remarks that a fellow named Joe Siegel, one of the most successful traders in a commodity called "green lumber," actually thought that it was lumber painted green (rather than freshly cut lumber, called green because it had not been dried). And he made it his profession to trade the stuff! Although he was ignorant of central matters like the meaning of "green." He also knew things about lumber that non-experts think are unimportant. People we call ignorant might not be ignorant.

Rosy retrospection

The remembering of the past as having been better than it really was.

Renormalization Group

The renormalization group technique allows us to think about physical and social systems at different scales. An idea from physics, and a complicated one at that, the application of a renormalization group to social systems allows us to understand why a small number of stubborn individuals can have a disproportionate impact if those around them follow suit on increasingly large scales.

Antifragility vs Robustness

The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better".

Childhood amnesia

The retention of few memories from before the age of four.

Which of the following statements is correct?

The standards of critical thinking must be applied to the elements as the critical thinker learns to develop intellectual traits.

13: Know your enemy: Intelligence Strategy OFFENSIVE WARFARE

The target of your strategies is not the army you face, but the mind who runs it. Learn to read people.

Halo effect

The tendency for a person's positive or negative traits to "spill over" from one personality area to another in others' perceptions of them (see also physical attractiveness stereotype).

Selective perception

The tendency for expectations to affect perception.

Experimenter's or expectation bias

The tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.

Actor-observer bias

The tendency for explanations of other individuals' behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their situation (see also Fundamental attribution error), and for explanations of one's own behaviors to do the opposite (that is, to overemphasize the influence of our situation and underemphasize the influence of our own personality).

Actor-observer bias

The tendency for explanations of other individuals' behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their situation (see also Fundamental attribution error); and for explanations of one's own behaviors to do the opposite (that is, to overemphasize the influence of our situation and underemphasize the influence of our own personality).

Cheerleader effect

The tendency for people to appear more attractive in a group than in isolation.

Moral luck

The tendency for people to ascribe greater or lesser moral standing based on the outcome of an event

Just-world phenomenon

The tendency for people to believe that the world is just and therefore people "get what they deserve."

Endowment effect

The tendency for people to demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.

Ingroup bias

The tendency for people to give preferential treatment to others they perceive to be members of their own groups.

Hyperbolic discounting

The tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.[43] Also known as current moment bias, present-bias, and related to Dynamic inconsistency.

Fundamental attribution error

The tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior (see also actor-observer bias, group attribution error, positivity effect, and negativity effect).

Fundamental attribution error

The tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior (see also actor-observer bias; group attribution error; positivity effect; and negativity effect)

False consensus effect

The tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.

IKEA effect

The tendency for people to place a disproportionately high value on objects that they partially assembled themselves, such as furniture from IKEA, regardless of the quality of the end result.

Trait ascription bias

The tendency for people to view themselves as relatively variable in terms of personality, behavior, and mood while viewing others as much more predictable.

Just-world hypothesis

The tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just, causing them to rationalize an otherwise inexplicable injustice as deserved by the victim(s).

Just-world hypothesis

The tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just; causing them to rationalize an otherwise inexplicable injustice as deserved by the victim(s).

Pessimism bias

The tendency for some people, especially those suffering from depression, to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them.

Pessimism bias

The tendency for some people; especially those suffering from depression; to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them.

Dunning-Kruger effect

The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency for experts to underestimate their own ability.

Moral credential effect

The tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice.

Attentional bias

The tendency of our perception to be affected by our recurring thoughts.

Negativity effect

The tendency of people, when evaluating the causes of the behaviors of a person they dislike, to attribute their positive behaviors to the environment and their negative behaviors to the person's inherent nature.

Negativity effect

The tendency of people, when evaluating the causes of the behaviors of a person they dislike; to attribute their positive behaviors to the environment and their negative behaviors to the person's inherent nature.

Conjunction fallacy

The tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.

Ambiguity effect

The tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown".

Optimism bias

The tendency to be over-optimistic, overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes (see also wishful thinking, valence effect, positive outcome bias).

Anthropomorphism

The tendency to characterize animals, objects, and abstract concepts as possessing human-like traits, emotions, and intentions.

Self-serving bias

The tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failures. It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way beneficial to their interests (see also group-serving bias).

Neglect of probability

The tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.

Money illusion

The tendency to concentrate on the nominal value (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.

System justification

The tendency to defend and bolster the status quo. Existing social, economic, and political arrangements tend to be preferred, and alternatives disparaged, sometimes even at the expense of individual and collective self-interest. (See also status quo bias.)

System justification

The tendency to defend and bolster the status quo. Existing social; economic; and political arrangements tend to be preferred; and alternatives disparaged sometimes even at the expense of individual and collective self-interest. (See also status quo bias.)

Telescoping effect

The tendency to displace recent events backward in time and remote events forward in time, so that recent events appear more remote, and remote events, more recent.

Bandwagon effect

The tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior.

Automation bias

The tendency to excessively depend on automated systems which can lead to erroneous automated information overriding correct decisions.

Mere exposure effect

The tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them.

Google effect

The tendency to forget information that can be found readily online by using Internet search engines

Google effect

The tendency to forget information that can be found readily online by using Internet search engines.

Parkinson's Law of Triviality

The tendency to give disproportionate weight to trivial issues. Also known as bikeshedding, this bias explains why an organization may avoid specialized or complex subjects, such as the design of a nuclear reactor, and instead focus on something easy to grasp or rewarding to the average participant, such as the design of an adjacent bike shed.

Forer effect (aka Barnum effect)

The tendency to give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. For example, horoscopes.

Pro-innovation bias

The tendency to have an excessive optimism towards an invention or innovation's usefulness throughout society, while often failing to identify its limitations and weaknesses.

Pro-innovation bias

The tendency to have an excessive optimism towards an invention or innovation's usefulness throughout society; while often failing to identify its limitations and weaknesses.

Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect

The tendency to ignore base rate information (generic, general information) and focus on specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case).

Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect

The tendency to ignore base rate information (generic; general information) and focus on specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case).

Outcome bias

The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

Omission bias

The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).

Subadditivity effect

The tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.

Status quo bias

The tendency to like things to stay relatively the same (see also loss aversion, endowment effect, and system justification).

Pseudocertainty effect

The tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.

Pseudocertainty effect

The tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive; but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.

Social desirability bias

The tendency to over-report socially desirable characteristics or behaviours in one self and under-report socially undesirable characteristics or behaviours.

Restraint bias

The tendency to overestimate one's ability to show restraint in the face of temptation.

Illusion of control

The tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external events.

Spotlight effect

The tendency to overestimate the amount that other people notice your appearance or behavior.

Clustering illusion

The tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs, streaks, or clusters in large samples of random data (that is, seeing phantom patterns).

Clustering illusion

The tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs; streaks; or clusters in large samples of random data (that is; seeing phantom patterns)

Impact bias

The tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.

Availability heuristic

The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater "availability" in memory, which can be influenced by how recent the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be.

Availability heuristic

The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater "availability" in memory; which can be influenced by how recent the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be.

Post-purchase rationalization

The tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.

Focusing effect

The tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event.

Less-is-better effect

The tendency to prefer a smaller set to a larger set judged separately; but not jointly

Anchoring or focalism

The tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor", on one trait or piece of information when making decisions (usually the first piece of information that we acquire on that subject)

Anchoring or focalism

The tendency to rely too heavily; or "anchor;" on one trait or piece of information when making decisions (usually the first piece of information that we acquire on that subject)

Choice-supportive bias

The tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.

Identifiable victim effect

The tendency to respond more strongly to a single identified person at risk than to a large group of people at risk.

Conservatism (Bayesian)

The tendency to revise one's belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence.

Confirmation bias

The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.

Confirmation bias

The tendency to search for; interpret; focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions

Hostile media effect

The tendency to see a media report as being biased, owing to one's own strong partisan views.

Bias blind spot

The tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people, or to be able to identify more cognitive biases in others than in oneself.

Information bias

The tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.

Disposition effect

The tendency to sell an asset that has accumulated in value and resist selling an asset that has declined in value.

recency effect

The tendency to show greater memory for information that comes last in a sequence.

Denomination effect

The tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills).

Risk compensation / Peltzman effect

The tendency to take greater risks when perceived safety increases.

Congruence bias

The tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, instead of testing possible alternative hypotheses.

Congruence bias

The tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing; instead of testing possible alternative hypotheses

Gambler's fallacy

The tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads."

Gambler's fallacy

The tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. The fallacy arises from an erroneous conceptualization of the law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads."

Projection bias

The tendency to unconsciously assume that others (or one's future selves) share one's current emotional states, thoughts and values.

Insensitivity to sample size

The tendency to under-expect variation in small samples

Planning fallacy

The tendency to underestimate task-completion times.

Empathy gap

The tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others.

Effort Error

The tendency to value perceived effort over actual outcomes

Distinction bias

The tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.

Unit bias

The tendency to want to finish a given unit of a task or an item. Strong effects on the consumption of food in particular.

Social comparison bias

The tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don't compete with one's own particular strengths.

Social comparison bias

The tendency; when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don't compete with one's own particular strengths.

ad hominem

The tort reform legislation must be worth supporting because the greedy trial lawyers all oppose it.

Absolute number

The total or aggregate of something, expressed as a number without relationship to other numbers

Probabilistic Thinking (See also: Numeracy/Bayesian Updating)

The unknowable human world is dominated by probabilistic outcomes, as distinguished from deterministic ones. Although we cannot predict the future with great certainty, we are wise to ascribe odds to more and less probable events. We do this every day unconsciously as we cross the street and ascribe low, yet not negligible, odds of being hit by a car.

Assumptions

The unstated or hidden beliefs that support our explicit reasoning about something.

Persistence

The unwanted recurrence of memories of a traumatic event

Persistence

The unwanted recurrence of memories of a traumatic event.

Reactance

The urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice (see also Reverse psychology).

Thrown-in statistics fallacy

The use of irrelevant, misleading, or questionable statistics to support an argument or defend a position.

thrown-in statistics

The use of irrelevant, misleading, or questionable statistics to support an argument or defend a position.

Utility (Marginal, Diminishing, Increasing)

The usefulness of additional units of any good tends to vary with scale. Marginal utility allows us to understand the value of one additional unit, and in most practical areas of life, that utility diminishes at some point. On the other hand, in some cases, additional units are subject to a "critical point" where the utility function jumps discretely up or down. As an example, giving water to a thirsty man has diminishing marginal utility with each additional unit, and can eventually kill him with enough units.

Mode

The value that appears most frequently in a series of values

"Based on the research findings of physicist Steven E. Jones, formerly of Brigham Young University, it is clear that the World Trade Center was destroyed by controlled demolition during the September 11, 2001 attacks."

There are several reasons that this is a fallacious appeal to authority. Jones may be a physicist, but that does not make him an expert on the collapse of modern skyscrapers. Members of BYU's engineering faculty criticized Jones' research (which was not peer reviewed) and Jones retired from BYU in the controversy that followed. Further, the vast majority of experts (professional associations of architects, structural engineers, and fire safety experts) cited the crash of jets into the World Trade Center towers as the reason for their destruction and conclude that controlled demolition was not involved.

Trademarks, Patents, and Copyrights

These three concepts, along with other related ones, protect the creative work produced by enterprising individuals, thus creating additional incentives for creativity and promoting the creative-destruction model of capitalism. Without these protections, information and creative workers have no defense against their work being freely distributed.

Which of the following statements about Uncritical Persons (as defined by Paul and Elder) is false?

They are skilled in manipulation.

Appeal to Nature

This argument goes that because something is natural, it must be better.

" The United States landed the first man on the moon in 1969." Is this information accurate or inaccurate?

This is a limited, but accurate, statement.

"Is basketball or ice hockey more fun to watch?" is a:

This is a question of preference, since it is asking for a subjective choice.

"Asking people for photo identification when they come to vote is just the first step in establishing a national identity card."

This is a slippery slope fallacy. Laws that ask for photo ID at the voting place don't mean a national identity card is inevitable; driver's licenses, passports, or state-issued photo IDs are typically what are accepted for identification purposes.

Opponents of off-shore drilling for oil in the U.S. will make us totally dependent on expensive and unreliable sources of petroleum from the Middle East in exchange for misguided overprotection of the environment."

This is a straw man fallacy. This statement distorts the position of those who oppose off-shore drilling on environmental grounds; most argue for replacing petroleum with renewable energy sources, not continuing to rely on Middle Eastern oil.

Criticism frequently leads to antyfragility- example banned books

This is also demonstrated in "The Streisand Effect "where the desire to kill an idea can directly lead to its proliferation". Banned books are a good example, or the popularity of Ayn Rand despite her aggressive detractors. Or try to not think of a white elephant and see what happens.

"We should have stricter gun control because 56% of Americans surveyed by Harris Interactive, Inc., a polling firm, supported tighter restrictions."

This is an appeal to popularity fallacy. The fact that a majority of Americans support stricter gun control demonstrates that the idea is popular. This statement doesn't offer any logical arguments supporting the view that there should be more restrictions on gun.

"We should fund research on human cloning and only narrow-minded religious fundamentalists oppose it based on their outdated belief system."

This is an example of an ad hominem fallacy. Opponents of research on human cloning have a series of arguments they can make against the practice. Rather than addressing these, this statement attacks "religious fundamentalists" who are "narrow-minded" with "outdated beliefs," using negative descriptive language to attack the person who hold a belief rather than actually contesting it.

A scientist discovered that all laboratory hamsters that had been eating lettuce developed Salmonella poisoning. This is an example of causation by:

This is an example of causation by a shared common factor.

Contrast-Misreaction Tendency

This is compare a cherry to an apple, instead of apple to an apple. Ex: When you buy this car worth 25 thoudsand dollars, since you already buy that much why don't you install.. for an extra 30/month. They didn't compare 25 thoudsands with few thoudsands, they compare cherry with an apple. Do you want to be like this slow car driving guy or do you want to be this high luxury everyone want car. Our problem here is a misunderstanding of comparisons and missing out on the magnitude of decisions. This gets to Phillip Fisher's point when he once said, "the stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything but the value of nothing." Evaluate people and objects by themselves and not by their contrast.

The Dunning Kruger effect

This is when you think you're among the best because you're better than your local peers. Little did you know comparing to the best, you're just an amateur. Remember be humble and compare your self and always practice.

Straw Man

This move oversimplifies an opponent's viewpoint and then attacks that hollow argument; When a writer argues against a claim that nobody actually holds or is universally considered weak

Counterinsurgency

Though asymmetric insurgent warfare can be extremely effective, over time competitors have also developed counterinsurgency strategies. Recently and famously, General David Petraeus of the United States led the development of counterinsurgency plans that involved no additional force but substantial additional gains. Tit-for-tat warfare or competition will often lead to a feedback loop that demands insurgency and counterinsurgency.

Randomness

Though the human brain has trouble comprehending it, much of the world is composed of random, non-sequential, non-ordered events. We are "fooled" by random effects when we attribute causality to things that are actually outside of our control. If we don't course-correct for this fooled-by-randomness effect - our faulty sense of pattern-seeking - we will tend to see things as being more predictable than they are and act accordingly.

Thinking through Implications

Three kinds of implications may be involved in any situation: -Possible Every time you ride your bike, one possible implication is that you could suffer a fall. -Probable If you don't slow down when riding your bike on a winding downhill road, one probable implication is that you will suffer a fall. -Necessary If you ride your bike "no hands" while accelerating on a winding downhill road, one inevitable implication is that you will suffer a fall. -be aware of exactly what we imply when we say something -consider the reasonability (or lack thereof) of what we imply -Put another way, we should say what we mean and mean what we say.

Lollapalooza Effect/Tedency

To get the extreme results combine all of these biases mix together. Combine it to make it works because doing one thing these days doesnt work anymore.

To have "skin in the game"

To have "skin in the game" is to have incurred risk by being involved in achieving a goal. Taleb extends the definition to include any risk so that "Every captain goes down with every ship". "Situation in which the manager of a business is not the true owner, so he follows a strategy that cosmetically seems to be sound, but in a hidden way benefits him and makes him antifragile at the expense (fragility) of the true owners or society. When he is right, he collects large benefits; when he is wrong, others pay the price. Typically this problem leads to fragility, as it is easy to hide risks. It also affects politicians and academics. A major source of fragility.

Appeal to authority fallacy

To justify support for a position by citing an esteemed or well-known figure who supports it.

appeal to authority

To justify support for a position by citing an esteemed or well-known figure who supports it. An appeal to authority does not address the merit of the position.

Slippery slope fallacy

To suggest that a step or action, once taken, will lead inevitably to similar steps or actions with presumably undesirable consequences.

slippery slope

To suggest that a step or action, once taken, will lead inevitably to similar steps or actions with presumably undesirable consequences. The fallacy is invoked to justify not taking a given initial step or action, lest it lead us down the "slippery slope."

Taking Command of Concepts

To take command of your thinking, you must: become master of your own conceptualizations; and not become trapped in one set of concepts

31: Destroy from within: The Inner Front Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

To take something you want, don't fight those who have it, but join them. Then either slowly make it your own or wait for the right moment to stage a coup.

8. All reasoning leads somewhere or has implications and consequences.

Trace the logical implications and consequences that follow from your reasoning. Search for negative as well as positive implications. Consider all possible significant consequences. 5.21 Think for Yourself CHECKPOINTS IN THINKING

All reasoning has implications and consequences

Track the logical implications and consequences that stem from your reasoning Search for negative as well as positive implications of your reasoning Consider all possible significant consequences

Of the five key factors Jefferson Flanders identifies in evaluating research, which one best addresses tracing the origins of the information?

Transparency

According to Paul and Elder, egocentrism and sociocentrism are significant barriers to sound ethical reasoning. True or false?

True According to the five foundations of ethical thinking introduced by Paul and Elder, egocentrism and sociocentrism are barriers to sound ethical reasoning.

Asking questions and challenging the status quo makes you a critical consumer of information. True or false?

True Asking critical questions and challenging the status quo in a given field will make you what Paul and Elder call a critical consumer of information.

One good way to analyze causes is to eliminate non-causal factors, identifying the causal factor through the process of elimination. True or false?

True Correct. In analyzing causation, it is a good idea to try to rule out non-causal factors until one correct causal factor remains.

Concomittant variation refers to a pattern of variation between a possible cause and a possible effect. True or false?

True Correct. One way to analyze causation is to look for concomittnat variation, a pattern of variation between a possible cause and a possible effect.

Intellectual standards require that assumptions be acknowledged and stated clearly and concisely.

True, Assumptions, what is presupposed to be true, must be directly acknowledged and analyzed.

Activated Knowledge

Truthful information that is employed to pursue more knowledge and/or is acted upon -"Taking into the mind, and actively using information that is true and also, when understood insightfully, leads us by implication to more and more knowledge." -We bring significant ideas and knowledge into the mind and are able to apply them, systematically, to new situations. -Learning a model (such as the scientific method or basic research techniques) and then applying it to new situations.

Activated Knowledge

Truthful information that is employed to pursue more knowledge and/or is acted upon. 8

In some cases, the conclusions we draw are based on assumptions that operate at a(n) ________ level.

Unconscious

The affect heuristic

Unconscious mind and emotional thinking brain making choices for you before you know it. For example, you know that it is not wise to put your hand on a hot stove, that is unconsciously decided for you.

Three Types of Thinker (Paul and Elder)

Uncritical Persons Skilled manipulators Fair-minded critical persons

Well travelled road effect

Underestimation of the duration taken to traverse oft-traveled routes and overestimation of the duration taken to traverse less familiar routes.

Time-saving bias

Underestimations of the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) from a relatively low speed and overestimations of the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) from a relatively high speed.

Irrational Exuberance

Unrealistic expectations for the stock market

24: Take the line of least expectation: Ordinary-Extraordinary Strategy UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

Upset expectations. First do something ordinary and conventional, then hit them with the extraordinary. Sometimes the ordinary is extraordinary because it is unexpected.

Deprival-Superreaction Tendency

Urgency and deadlings. People do not want to miss out on deals. They will lose something if they dont take action by deadline. Ex:If you buy this today, you will get this and that for free. Put ugency on people. Do it today why tomorrow? are you gonna get anything if you do it tomorrow? Loss aversion. Loss aversion refers to people's tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains. Most studies suggest that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains.

series of measures or steps to help aspiring critical thinkers lay a foundation for improving their thinking.

Use "wasted" time Handle one problem per day Internalize intellectual standards Keep an intellectual journal Practice intellectual strategies Reshape your character Deal with your ego Redefine the way you see things Get in touch with your emotions Analyze group influences on your life

Anecdotal Fallacy

Using a personal experience or an isolated example instead of sound reasoning or compelling evidence

Anecdotal

Using personal experience or an isolated example instead of a valid argument especially to dismiss statistics.

Redundancy

Usually, the human body is incredibly efficient, and doesn't want any excess capacity "lying around". But in the case of being antifragile, your body builds redundancy (two kidneys, two lungs, etc) in order to prepare for future extreme situations and emergencies. That's how stress can prepare your body for even bigger stress and it's building this extra capacity that lies at the core of why being antifragile is so helpful to thrive in critical situations.

Velocity

Velocity is not equivalent to speed; the two are sometimes confused. Velocity is speed plus vector: how fast something gets somewhere. An object that moves two steps forward and then two steps back has moved at a certain speed but shows no velocity. The addition of the vector, that critical distinction, is what we should consider in practical life.

2: Do not fight the last war: Guerilla-war-of-the-mind Strategy SELF-DIRECTED WARFARE

Wage war on the past and ruthlessly force yourself to react to the present. Make everything fluid and mobile.

Excessive Self-Regard Tendency

We all think we're above average. This is where overconfidence comes from. We can hit this point by saying" I see something special in you and I want to bring it out using the product im selling." They love compliments, they will trust you due to this tendency. Munger says the greatest type of pride should be taking pride in being trustworthy to avoid developing an ego.

Negativity bias

We are more affected by negative things than by equally positive things.

Ostrich effect

We avoid information may cause psychological discomfort.

Not invented here

We avoid using products, ideas, or services of external origin.

Declinism

We believe (without evidence) that a society or institution is going towards decline or failure.

Illusory truth effect

We believe information is correct if we're repeatedly exposed to it.

Pro-innovation bias

We believe innovation should be adopted by all society and cannot see that innovation's weaknesses; When a proponent of an innovation tends to overvalue its usefulness and undervalue its limitations.

Naïve realism

We believe what we see in the world is objective reality, and other people who have different perceptions are uninformed.

Paul and Elder propose five foundations for ethical thinking:

We cannot pick and choose our ethical principles subjectively. If we are reasonable, we should respect clear-cut ethical principles. We must learn how to apply ethical concepts and principles to ethical issues. We should distinguish ethical principles from other domains (law, religion, ideology, societal norms and taboos). We should recognize egocentrism and sociocentrism as significant barriers to sound ethical reasoning.

Context effect / cue-dependent forgetting / mood-congruent memory bias

We fail to recall information without memory cues.

Base rate fallacy

We focus on specific, anecdotal information over generic, base rate information.

Self-relevance effect

We have an easier time relating to concepts when we see ourselves in that concept.

Memory inhibition / Part-list cueing effect

We have the ability to forget irrelevant information.

Zero sum bias

We judge a situation to be zero-sum when it is actually non-zero-sum.

Peak-end rule

We judge experiences largely based on how we feel at the peak and the end of the experience.

Omission bias

We judge harmful actions as worse than equally harmful inactions.

Time-saving bias

We misestimate the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) speed.

Lake Wobegon Effect

We over-estimate our abilities, especially compared with others

Pseudocertainty effect

We perceive an outcome as certain when it is in fact uncertain.

IKEA effect / Processing difficulty effect

We place a disproportionally high value on products we partially created.

Delmore effect

We provide more articulate goals for lower priority areas of our lives.

Framing effect

We react to choices differently depending on how it's presented. We avoid risk when a positive frame is presented and seek risk when a negative frame is presented.

Semmelweis reflex

We reflexively reject new evidence if it contradicts established norms.

Anchoring / Contrast effect / Focusing effect

We rely too much on the first piece of information given (the "anchor") and then evaluate other options in relation to that anchor.

Bizarreness effect / Humor effect

We remember bizarre / humorous material more easily than non-bizarre / funny material.

Von Restorff effect

We remember things that stand out from a group of similar items.

Confirmation bias

We search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our preexisting beliefs.

Bias blind spot

We see bias at work in other people's judgment but not in our own.

Observer-expectancy effect

We subconsciously influence / bias the participants of an experiment

Appeal to probability fallacy

We take something for granted because it will probably be the case.

Selective perception

We tend to not notice / more quickly forget stimuli that causes emotional discomfort and contradicts our prior beliefs.

Money illusion

We think of money in nominal instead of real terms.

Information

We use information whenever we reason. Information takes many forms: statistical data, our observations, others' testimony, etc. In thinking critically about an issue, we must determine what information is relevant to it. We rely on information to direct us to a supportable conclusion. Reasoning often follows from bad or incomplete information. Therefore, the critical thinker must be able to skillfully evaluate information for accuracy and completeness. We need to recognize when we don't have sufficient information to draw a reasonable conclusion.

Congruence bias

We're more likely to try to prove our hypothesis than to disprove it

Skilled manipulators

Weak-sense critical thinkers Skilled in manipulation Pursue self-interest Employ manipulation, domination, demagoguery Try to keep other points of view from being heard

Point of view

What are the biases or prejudices of the creator(s) of any given information? Are they neutral or partisan? Are they looking to advance a cause or ideology? Do they try to pass off opinions as facts? What other motives may be at work that could introduce bias (personal aggrandizement, professional jealousy, institutional pride, etc.)?

Observer-expectancy effect

When a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see also subject-expectancy effect).

Tip of the tongue phenomenon

When a subject is able to recall parts of an item, or related information, but is frustratingly unable to recall the whole item. This is thought an instance of "blocking" where multiple similar memories are being recalled and interfere with each other.

Illusion of external agency

When people view self-generated preferences as instead being caused by insightful, effective and benevolent agents

Illusion of external agency

When people view self-generated preferences as instead being caused by insightful; effective and benevolent agents

Moral Hazard

When the act of insuring an event increases the likelihood that the event will happen; When a proponent of an innovation tends to overvalue its usefulness and undervalue its limitations.

Black or White

When two alternative states are presented as the only possibilities, when in fact more possibilities exist.

Alloying

When we combine various elements, we create new substances. This is no great surprise, but what can be surprising in the alloying process is that 2+2 can equal not 4 but 6 - the alloy can be far stronger than the simple addition of the underlying elements would lead us to believe. This process leads us to engineering great physical objects, but we understand many intangibles in the same way; a combination of the right elements in social systems or even individuals can create a 2+2=6 effect similar to alloying.

The anchoring effect

When you do not have any clue about the product, and a initial given price appear, you tend to believe in it. Then if the person burch the price in half you would buy it because the fake given initial price is cut in half.

The ultimatum game

When you making a decision on a deal, you will based your decision on whether you have an advantage or the opponent does. 20%

Embodied cognition

When you physically feel warmth or cold, your mind and heart will congruently feel the same way.

Hindsight bias

When you say thats what I thought. You didnt really thought that, it just you ignore everything and pretend like you knew it before. In fact its the new information.

The argument from ignorance

When youre lack of information about the situation, youre incline to accept any reasons especially if others ignorance also agrees.

Algorithms

While hard to precisely define, an algorithm is generally an automated set of rules or a "blueprint" leading a series of steps or actions resulting in a desired outcome, and often stated in the form of a series of "If → Then" statements. Algorithms are best known for their use in modern computing, but are a feature of biological life as well. For example, human DNA contains an algorithm for building a human being.

Authority

Who stands behind the information? Is it from a primary or secondary source? What expertise do authors or editors have, if any? What are their credentials, academic or professional? Is the information subject to peer review or an established editing process? If documents are involved, where did they come from? Who vouches for their authenticity?

Self-Preservation Instincts

Without a strong self-preservation instinct in an organism's DNA, it would tend to disappear over time, thus eliminating that DNA. While cooperation is another important model, the self-preservation instinct is strong in all organisms and can cause violent, erratic, and/or destructive behavior for those around them.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc Latin for "after this, therefore because of this" (faulty cause/effect, coincidental correlation, correlation without causation)

X happened, then Y happened; therefore X caused Y. The Loch Ness Monster has been seen in this loch. Something tipped our boat over; it's obviously the Loch Ness Monster.

The critical thinker should look for rival causes whenever evidence is being used to support a claim about what caused something. The following constructs are common cues that indicate when evidence ("X") is being presented to support causation:

X leads to... X determines... X is responsible for... X results in... X brings about... These or similar cues should put us on alert for possible rival causes.

Availability Heuristics

You believe and react faster in what you heard the most or relate to rather than the statistics that you're unfamiliar with.

The argument from authority

You believe experts or people with prestiges words are guarantee and should be correct but in reality thats what THEY want you to believe in.

Dunbar's number

You can maintained at top 150-221 friends on your mentally contract. And a group of 20 people with strong communication relationship. I disagree.

1: Declare war on your enemies: Polarity Strategy SELF-DIRECTED WARFARE

You cannot fight effectively unless you can identify them. Learn to smoke them out, then inwardly declare war. Your enemies can fill you with purpose and direction.

Introspection

You do not truly understand your desire, motivations or other. When you have to explain it, you will try to explain to what it make sense to you the most. But it is just BS

The illusion of transparency

You feel like people can see and know what you think and you imagine you have red embarrassed face, but false, people do not notice them unless you mention it.

Reciprocation Tendency

You have to give back. Give 3 things physical product for every action you ask. It reciprical you have to give back. We tend to want to return the favor when someone helps us, which can be a good thing at times, but it can also lead to poor decisions if you reciprocate business deals based on these minor favors.

Cult intrination

You join the cult(frat, fan club, etc.. leaders) because you want to seek to shares the visions of the leaders. The leader have an interesting incentives.

The illusion of control

You often believe you can control the outcome of randomness or complex situation. Such as casinos roulette.

Doubt-Avoidance Tendency

You want to remove any doubts of buying or any, from your customers brain. " It may not work for everyone, but im sure its gonna work for all of you that listening, in fact if it doesn't work I will send you all the money back" If we are unsure about a decision we try to quickly remove any doubt by making an ill-informed, quick decision.

Learned helplessness

You will tend to give up if you think you cant do it because your do not built that way. I think this is bogus.

Confabulation

Your mind cannot perfectly recall a story, thus you will likely make up a story to replace it.

Thought-terminating cliché

a commonly used phrase, sometimes passing as folk wisdom, used to quell cognitive dissonance, conceal lack of thought-entertainment, move on to other topics etc. but in any case, end the debate with a cliche—not a point.

Argument from silence (argumentum ex silentio)

a conclusion based on silence or lack of contrary evidence.

Appeal to tradition (argumentum ad antiquitatem)

a conclusion supported solely because it has long been held to be true.

Correlative-based fallacies: Correlation proves causation (post hoc ergo propter hoc)

a faulty assumption that correlation between two variables implies that one causes the other.

Cryptomnesia

a form of misattribution where a memory is mistaken for imagination, because there is no subjective experience of it being a memory.

Suggestibility

a form of misattribution where ideas suggested by a questioner are mistaken for memory.

lurking variable

a hidden variable that was not part of the statistical study under investigation; A variable that is unobserved but may be the actual cause of an observed response.

Prosecutor's fallacy

a low probability of false matches does not mean a low probability of some false match being found.

source confusion

a memory distortion that occurs when the true source of the memory is forgotten

List-length effect

a smaller percentage of items are remembered in a longer list, but as the length of the list increases, the absolute number of items remembered increases as well.

Red herring

a speaker attempts to distract an audience by deviating from the topic at hand by introducing a separate argument the speaker believes is easier to speak to.

Fallacy of accent

a specific type of ambiguity that arises when the meaning of a sentence is changed by placing an unusual prosodic stress, or when, in a written passage, it's left unclear which word the emphasis was supposed to fall on.

Wishful thinking

a specific type of appeal to emotion where a decision is made according to what might be pleasing to imagine, rather than according to evidence or reason.

Appeal to fear

a specific type of appeal to emotion where an argument is made by increasing fear and prejudice towards the opposing side

Appeal to flattery

a specific type of appeal to emotion where an argument is made due to the use of flattery to gather support.

Appeal to spite

a specific type of appeal to emotion where an argument is made through exploiting people's bitterness or spite towards an opposing party.

Abusive fallacy

a subtype of "ad hominem" when it turns into verbal abuse of the opponent rather than arguing about the originally proposed argument.

confirmation bias

a tendency to search for information that confirms one's preconceptions; the tendency to test a proposition by searching for evidence that would support it

Poisoning the well

a type of ad hominem where adverse information about a target is presented with the intention of discrediting everything that the target person says.

Which of the following statements is NOT true about the gap between the real and ideal in academic disciplines or fields of study, according to Paul and Elder?

a) Egocentrism contributes to the gap Correct Answer Checked b) Higher order thinking contributes to the gap. c) Sociocentrism contributes to the gap d) Human fallibility contributes to the gap Feedback: The correct answer is B. Higher order thinking does NOT contribute to the gap; if anything it would act to narrow it.

Strong analogies entail comparisons between things that have _________ and lack _________.

a) Similarities/differences Correct Answer Checked b) Relevant similarities/relevant differences c) Relevant differences/relevant similarities d) Similar characteristics/contradictions Feedback: Strong analogies compare things that have relevant similarities and lack relevant differences.

Which of the following represents a difficulty with surveys as evidence?

a) Survey questions are sometimes worded ambiguously b) Survey responses don't necessarily reflect the actual beliefs of respondents c) Surveys have built-in biases d) All of the above Correct Answer Checked d) All of the above Feedback: The wording of survey questions may be subject to differing interpretations; survey responses may not reflect respondents' true beliefs; and surveys have built-in biases.

Which of the following statements represent the negative impact of sociocentrism?

a) false sense of superiority b) close-mindedness c) suppression of opposing viewpoints Correct Answer Checked d) all of the above

Given the following dataset, what is the median? 1, 5, 7, 8, 3, 2, 5, 6, 8, 4, 9

a. 5 Yes, the correct answer is a. The median is 5. Re-ordering the values in the dataset gives us: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 9 The middle point is data point 5. b. 3 c. 9 d. 5.3

Which of the following statements are false? Statistics always prove truth. Statistics can't be trusted. Unreported information leads to false conclusions. Average, rate, and ratio are the only methods of reporting statistics.

a. I, II, and III b. I, II, and IV Yes, the correct answer is b. Statistics do not prove truth in all cases, but soundly derived statistics can be trustworthy. Also, a percentage is another form of statistical reporting, along with average, ratio, and rate. c. None of the above are false. d. All of the above are false.

Which of the following are motives that may introduce bias into information?

a. Ideology b. Professional jealousy c. Personal aggrandizement d. All of the above Yes, the correct answer is d. All of these can introduce bias.

If a sample is too small or not random enough, the critical thinker must:

a. assume the findings are incorrect. b. be skeptical of the outcome. Yes, the correct answer is b. A critical thinker must be skeptical of an outcome derived from a statistical sample that is too small or not sufficiently random. c. trust the outcome. d. none of the above

Which of the following is more widely regarded as a high quality source of evidence?

a. research studies Yes, the correct answer is a. Research studies, if conducted properly, can provide very strong evidence because they produce empirical data that may be independently tested and verified.

Cherry picking (suppressed evidence, incomplete evidence)

act of pointing at individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.

Actively using information that is false, although we mistakenly think it is true, is an example of:

activated ignorance

Dismissing an argument by attacking the person who offers it rather than by refuting its reasoning is an example of:

ad hominem fallacy

Change bias

after an investment of effort in producing change, remembering one's past performance as more difficult than it actually was.

Paul and Elder maintain that

all content is explained, illustrated, analyzed, applied, transformed, evaluated, synthesized, learned, discovered, and organized by thinking.

According to Paul and Elder, there are two other key insights into the question of thinking through content:

all content is organized by concepts; and all content is logically interdependent. The practical implication of these insights is that you can enhance your learning by (1) focusing on the concepts defining and structuring a body of content and by (2) figuring out how the different parts of content relate to one another.

part-list cueing effect

allows marketers to strategically use the interference process

Overwhelming exception

an accurate generalization that comes with qualifications that eliminate so many cases that what remains is much less impressive than the initial statement might have led one to assume.

chilling effect

an action that discourages others from speaking their mind; individuals stop discussing relationship issues out of fear of their partners' negative reactions; self-censorship due to fear of negative reactions

False attribution

an advocate appeals to an irrelevant, unqualified, unidentified, biased or fabricated source in support of an argument.

"Never let the other person frame the question. In every question

an answer is planted. Never respond straight to a question that makes no sense to you".

Appeal to pity (argumentum ad misericordiam)

an argument attempts to induce pity to sway opponents.

Straw man fallacy

an argument based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position.

False analogy

an argument by analogy in which the analogy is poorly suited.

Appeal to ridicule

an argument is made by presenting the opponent's argument in a way that makes it appear ridiculous.

Argumentum ad baculum (appeal to the stick, appeal to force, appeal to threat)

an argument made through coercion or threats of force to support position.

Ignoratio elenchi (irrelevant conclusion, missing the point)

an argument that may in itself be valid, but does not address the issue in question.

If-by-whiskey

an argument that supports both sides of an issue by using terms that are selectively emotionally sensitive.

Accident

an exception to a generalization is ignored.

Psychologist's fallacy

an observer presupposes the objectivity of his own perspective when analyzing a behavioral event.

Critical thinking involves_______ one's own thinking.

analyzing, evaluating, and improving one's own thinking.

Some more real and potential examples: Vioxx

and anti-inflammatory medicine that ends up causing heart issues; Bariatric surgery for overweight people (in place of dieting); Anti-depressants in non-suicidal cases; Cortisone; Disinfectants and other cleaning products; Hormone replacement therapy; Hysterectomies; Cesarean births when the mother won't otherwise die; Whitening of rice, wheat; Sunscreen; Excessive hygiene; Not eating dirt; High fructose corn syrup; Soy milk; Child psychiatry.

He also points out the ill health and early death of many rich people

and argues: "If true wealth consists in worriless sleeping, clear conscience, reciprocal gratitude, absence of envy, good appetite, muscle strength, physical energy, frequent laughs, no meals alone, no gym class, some physical labor (or hobby), good bowel movements, no meeting rooms, and periodic surprises, then it is largely subtractive (elimination of iatrogenics)."

Antifragile - a term used to mean the opposite of fragile

and denote things that gain from disorder, chaos, stressors. It is not the same thing as 'robust' or 'resilient'. Fragile things are negatively impacted by uncertainty, stress. Robust things are unimpacted by them. Antifragile things actually grow and flourish in the face of uncertainty and stress. The analogy "wind puts out a candle, but encourages a fire" embodies this.

Look for optionality

and have a non-narrative approach to life.

Taleb also points out how many people are being put on antidepressants

and how mood swings are a natural part of the human condition. If someone is truly suicidal, sure, but the ability to wrestle with our dark side is part of life and great inspiration for creatives.

There are also cases where we get some small immediate benefits

and ignore the unknown larger side effects down the line. This would include drugs like Thalidomide, and nutritional interventions like Trans Fat. When we find something that seems to have a "free lunch," like steroids or trans fat, something that helps the healthy withut a clear downside, it is likely there will be a concealed trap somewhere. It's a "sucker's bet."

Humans are bad at estimating worst case scenarios

and it is precisely in those low-probability worst case scenarios that the spare capacity or 'inefficiency' becomes a boon, or very efficient.

"A man is morally free when... he judges the world

and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity." - George Santayana

This represents playing it very safe in some areas (staying robust to negative black swans)

and taking a lot of small risks in other areas (open to positive black swans), to take advantage of antifragility. While avoiding being "in the middle."

The error that you know where you are going

and that you knew exactly where you were going in the past, and that others have succeeded in the past by knowing where they were going.

This can also be applied to competition. The best horses lose when they compete with slower ones

and win against stronger rivals. Absence of challenge can degrade the best of us.

If you put 90% of your net worth in cash or T bills

and you use the other 10% for extremely aggressive and risky investments, you can never lose more than 10% of your net worth, but you're exposed to massive upside.

Association fallacy (guilt by association)

arguing that because two things share a property they are the same.

Taleb also argues against the "master pupil" relationships

arguing that those relationships developed because the people were like minded, not that they became like minded because of the relationship. A personal note on this: I've come to believe more and more that the right book and idea is not about completely teaching you something new, rather, helping you fully articulate something you have already begun to think about.

Informal fallacies: Red herring

argument given in response to another argument, which is irrelevant and draws attention away from the subject of argument. See also irrelevant conclusion.

Moving the goalposts (raising the bar)

argument in which evidence presented in response to a specific claim is dismissed and some other (often greater) evidence is demanded.

Informal fallacies

arguments that are fallacious for reasons other than structural (formal) flaws and usually require examination of the argument's content.

Argument from fallacy

assumes that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion is false.

Referential fallacy

assuming all words refer to existing things and that the meaning of words reside within the things they refer to, as opposed to words possibly referring to no real object or that the meaning of words often comes from how we use them.

Argument from ignorance (appeal to ignorance, argumentum ad ignorantiam)

assuming that a claim is true because it has not been or cannot be proven false, or vice versa.

Fallacy of division

assuming that something true of a thing must also be true of all or some of its parts.

Fallacy of composition

assuming that something true of part of a whole must also be true of the whole.

Argument to moderation (false compromise, middle ground, fallacy of the mean, argumentum ad temperantiam)

assuming that the compromise between two positions is always correct.

The implicit beliefs that support our explicit reasoning about something are:

assumptions

Ad hominem

attacking the arguer instead of the argument.

Property of a convex function - the function of the average of x is greater than the average of the function of x. e.g. for y=x^2

average of the function of a few values is higher than function of the average of these values.

loss aversion

avoiding losses is more important than achieving comparable gains; an oversensitivity to loss, leading to unwillingness to recognize a loss and move on

Hasty generalization (fallacy of insufficient statistics, fallacy of insufficient sample, fallacy of the lonely fact, leaping to a conclusion, hasty induction, secundum quid, converse accident)

basing a broad conclusion on a small sample.

optimism bias

belief bad things happen to other people, but not to us.

naive realism

belief that we see the world precisely as it is

Line Graphs plot the relationship

between two or more variables by using connected data points. Line graphs are very useful where there is time series data to be summarized. They are appropriate where the data values are continuous.

Consider the life of a lion in a zoo and in the wild. The lion in the zoo might live longer

but is that really a desirable existence? Taleb points out that we used to have "free range humans," before such things as suits and soccer moms and gym machines.

Another example: static background noise makes it easier to pick up radio signals. Writing in cafés with background conversations helps you focus. We want a little stress

but not too much.

There's no good evidence for the benefits of reducing swelling

but we automatically do it as part of the reflex to do something .

He also specifies that what mother nature does and has done is rigorous until proven otherwise

but what humans do is flawed until proven otherwise. Nature's fat's turn out to be very healthy, human designed ones, not so much.

Your flight never gets in 4 hours early

but you can certainly arrive 4 hours late. Anything unexpected, any shocks, is much more likely to extend the total flying time, ergo flight schedules are fragile.

conspicuous consumption

buying and using products because of the "statement" they make about social position; a showy display of wealth for social prestige

Which of the following is NOT a good reason to rely on established institutions for the quality and accuracy of information?

c. A well-known institution always is a guarantee of quality and accuracy. Yes, the correct answer is c. There are no permanent guarantees of quality and accuracy in information, no matter how respected the institution.

Wrong direction

cause and effect are reversed. The cause is said to be the effect and vice versa.

Naturalistic fallacy (is-ought fallacy, naturalistic fallacy)

claims about what ought to be on the basis of statements about what is.

The Standards(Intellectual)

clarity accuracy precision relevance depth breadth logic significance fairness

Primary standards associated with assumptions

clear, justified, and consistent

Financial crisis problems are primarily to do with size - with size

comes fragility.

strong sense critical thinkers

consistent pursuit of what is intellectually fair and just strive to be ethical strive to empathize with other's viewpoints will entertain arguments with which they do not agree change their views when confronted with superior reasoning. employ their thinking reasonable instead of manipulatively. requires fair mindedness combined with basic critical thinking skills

Artisanal careers are good lessons in antifragility - when you are a taxi driver

craftsman, dentist etc, small variations in external conditions (market situation, population changes, natural disasters) will make you adapt pretty effectively.

Critical thinking values ________ of thought over ______ of thought.

depth/speed

Qualitative evidence

describes or recounts an observation or phenomenon. It communicates understanding and meaning—why and how something happened.

False equivalence

describing a situation of logical and apparent equivalence, when in fact there is none.

Deep learning involves

developing the tools of critical thinking and applying them to whatever challenges you encounter now and in the future.

functional fixedness

difficulty conceptualizing that an object typically used for one purpose can be used for another; like in the candle, book of matches, box of thumbtacks problem, becoming too fixated on the box's function and forget its physical makeup

Appeal to the stone (argumentum ad lapidem)

dismissing a claim as absurd without demonstrating proof for its absurdity.

Fallacy of relative privation ("not as bad as")

dismissing an argument due to the existence of more important, but unrelated, problems in the world.

Anything living is inherently antifragile to a certain extent - it is living because it has withstood some unexpectedness

disorder.

If you have more than one reason to do something

don't do it. By invoking more than one reason to do something, you are trying to convince yourself to do it. Obvious decisions (robust to errors) require no more than one good reason.

suggestibility

effects of misinformation from external sources that leads to the creation of false memories

Ignoring complexity and embracing a version of reality that conforms to our existing views, values, and beliefs is an example of:

egocentric oversimplification

Which term means the tendency to view everything in relationship to oneself?

egocentrism

testing effect

enhanced memory after retrieving, rather than simply rereading info

modality effect

enhanced recall of the final item of a list when the presentation is auditory rather than visual

tip of the tongue phenomenon

experience of knowing that we know something but being unable to access it

placebo effect

experimental results caused by expectations alone; the phenomenon in which the expectations of the participants in a study can influence their behavior

Bringing an unbiased perspective to all relevant viewpoints exemplifies which of the following?

fair-mindedness

An inference is something we presuppose. True or false?

false, An inference is a mental step by which one concludes that something is true based on something else being true or appearing to be so. An assumption is something we presuppose.

Acknowledging different sources of point of view is an argument for intellectual relativism. True or false?

false, Acknowledging that different sources shape point of view is not an argument for intellectual relativity, i.e., the claim that nothing is provable because everything is relative. Observing things from a particular point of view does not render one unable to distinguish accurate from inaccurate statements.

Many great inventions were toys

first. The steam engine was invented by the greeks for amusement, and it took a long time for us to realize it had practical applications.

Another rule: "Never ask anyone for their opinion

forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have, or don't have, in their portfolio."

mental accounting

framing a problem in terms of gains/losses influences our decisions

Taleb discusses optionality

freedom of choice, as a means of robustness and antifragility. Simply, the more options you have, the more freedom you have to respond to unforseen circumstances, and the less fragile you are to sudden events. Financial independence is a big form of it, but there are others.

Onus probandi

from Latin "onus probandi incumbit ei qui dicit, non ei qui negat" the burden of proof is on the person who makes the claim, not on the person who denies (or questions the claim). It is a particular case of the "argumentum ad ignorantiam" fallacy, here the burden is shifted on the person defending against the assertion.

Qualitative evidence derives

from participant observation and personal communications. It is the result of unstructured or unscientific gathering of information.

In thinking through a problem, the critical thinker does all of the following except:

gathers information that supports his/her presuppositions

Interventions almost always have negative convexity effects (mild known benefits

high unknown losses).

Pygmalion effect

higher expectations lead to an increase in performance; living up to or down to another's expectations of us

For the perishable (food

humans), every additional day in its life means it is closer to dying. For the nonperishable (books, ideas), every additional day of its life can imply a longer life expectancy. If a book has been in print for 100 years, it will likely continue to be read for another 100. But a person who has been alive for 100 years...

Texas sharpshooter fallacy

improperly asserting a cause to explain a cluster of data.

Continuum fallacy (fallacy of the beard, line-drawing fallacy, sorites fallacy, fallacy of the heap, bald man fallacy)

improperly rejecting a claim for being imprecise.

Moral high ground fallacy

in which one assumes a "holier-than-thou" attitude in an attempt to make oneself look good to win an argument.

Illusory correlation

inaccurately seeing a relationship between two events related by coincidence.[5]

Consistency bias

incorrectly remembering one's past attitudes and behaviour as resembling present attitudes and behaviour.

Ecological fallacy

inferences about the nature of specific individuals are based solely upon aggregate statistics collected for the group to which those individuals belong.

Naturalistic fallacy

inferring evaluative conclusions from purely factual premises in violation of fact-value distinction. For instance, inferring ought from is (sometimes referred to as the is-ought fallacy) is an instance of naturalistic fallacy. Also naturalistic fallacy in a stricter sense as defined in the section "Conditional or questionable fallacies" below is an instance of naturalistic fallacy. Naturalistic fallacy is the inverse of moralistic fallacy.

Moralistic fallacy

inferring factual conclusions from purely evaluative premises in violation of fact-value distinction. For instance, inferring is from ought is an instance of moralistic fallacy. Moralistic fallacy is the inverse of naturalistic fallacy defined below.

Naturalistic fallacy (anti-naturalistic fallacy)

inferring impossibility to infer any instance of ought from is from the general invalidity of is-ought fallacy mentioned above. For instance, is P \lor \neg P does imply ought P \lor \neg P for any proposition P, although the naturalistic fallacy would falsely declare such an inference invalid. Naturalistic fallacy is an instance of argument from fallacy.

Bulverism (psychogenetic fallacy)

inferring why an argument is being used, associating it to some psychological reason, then assuming it is invalid as a result. It is wrong to assume that if the origin of an idea comes from a biased mind, then the idea itself must also be a falsehood.

Judgmental language

insulting or pejorative language to influence the recipient's judgment.

The opposite of intellectual conformity is:

intellectual autonomy

The ability to reconstruct others' viewpoints exemplifies which of the following traits?

intellectual empathy

To admit flaws in one's own thinking is an expression of:

intellectual integrity

observer effect

interference with or modification of the subject's behaviors by the process of observation; tendency of people or animals to behave differently when they know they are being observed

Misleading vividness

involves describing an occurrence in vivid detail, even if it is an exceptional occurrence, to convince someone that it is a problem.

A claim that is made without any supporting statements

is not a conclusion. It is an unsupported claim, or an opinion.

Fallacy of the single cause (causal oversimplification)

it is assumed that there is one, simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly sufficient causes.

"The best way to verify that you are alive is by checking if you like variations. Remember that food would not have a taste if it were not for hunger; results are meaningless without effort

joy without sadness, convictions without uncertainty, and an ethical life isn't so when stripped of personal risks."

"I derived the rule that what is called "healthy" is generally unhealthy

just as "social" networks are antisocial, and the "knowledge"-based economy is typically ignorant."

Identification involves

looking at your irrational emotions or desires and figuring out what is generating them. Then, the critical thinker seeks to replace the irrational thinking with rational thinking.

Chronic stressors are small (in impact)

low-level stressors that are repetitive, occur often in our environment and increase fragility. The continuous stress of a boss or bad commute is an example of this. On the other hand, what the author calls 'acute stressors with recovery' are relatively infrequent events, that start with an unexpected challenge (e.g. snake appearing out of nowhere) and end with conquering or containing that challenge. Acute stressors increase antifragility.

veil of ignorance

making decisions with a blind eye to extraneous factors that could affect the decision; means of "shielding" your eyes from things that might bias you against an argument

Thinking Across Points of View

many sources Point-of-view source Example Point in time 18th century, 1960s, yesterday Culture Western, Eastern, youth Religion Christian, Jewish, Muslim Gender/Sexual Orientation male, female, straight, gay Profession lawyer, teacher, soldier Academic discipline biology, history, sociology Peer group jock, theater/drama, overachiever Economic interest landlord, renter, business owner, rank-and-file employee Emotional state outraged, resentful, euphoric Age group adolescence, twenty-something, elderly

When consuming plants they would have been regular

meat irregular, so it would make sense to eat mostly plant based most of the time then feast on meat intermittently.

Stereotypical bias

memory distorted towards stereotypes (e.g. racial or gender), e.g. "black-sounding" names being misremembered as names of criminals.

Leveling and Sharpening

memory distortions introduced by the loss of details in a recollection over time, often concurrent with sharpening or selective recollection of certain details that take on exaggerated significance in relation to the details or aspects of the experience lost through leveling. Both biases may be reinforced over time, and by repeated recollection or re-telling of a memory.

Source confusion

misattributing the source of a memory, e.g. misremembering that one saw an event personally when actually it was seen on television.

Time is the mother of all stressors - more time

more events and more randomness.

A rival cause tells us that there is _____________ for why something happened.

more than one credible explanation

"Ancestral life had no homework

no boss, no civil servants, no academic grades, no conversation with the dean, no consultant with an MBA, no table of procedure, no application form, no trip to New Jersey, no grammatical stickler, no conversation with someone boring you: all life was random stimuli and nothing, good or bad, ever felt like work. Dangerous, yes, but boring, never."

This is an interesting and important concept to think about as it is all around us in nature and evolution - only the antifragile setups could have lasted billions of years in an unpredictable universe. Yet

no known language has a word for the 'exact opposite of fragile', leading the author to coin antifragile.

Taleb argues that the solution to many problems in life is by removing things

not adding things.

Look for things with open ended

not closed ended, payoffs

Stoicism is a domestication

not elimination of emotions. The 'barbell' approach (adopt a mix of two extreme approaches) is a domestication, not elimination of uncertainty.

Watch what people do

not what they say. Many researchers on happiness are earning more than $70,000 a year despite their own research saying it won't make them any happier.

Two wrongs make a right

occurs when it is assumed that if one wrong is committed, another wrong will cancel it out.

Historian's fallacy

occurs when one assumes that decision makers of the past viewed events from the same perspective and having the same information as those subsequently analyzing the decision. (Not to be confused with presentism, which is a mode of historical analysis in which present-day ideas, such as moral standards, are projected into the past.)

Von Restorff effect

occurs when recall is better for a distinctive item, even if it occurs in the middle of a list

projection bias

occurs when we assume others have the same beliefs we do

Freemium

offers users a basic service for free and then charges a premium for upgrades or advanced features; "if you're not paying for it, you're the product"

Shallow learning (cramming information through memorization),

on the other hand, doesn't produce lasting knowledge or comprehension.

(shifting the) Burden of proof (see

onus probandi) - I need not prove my claim, you must prove it is false.

An unsupported claim is what critical thinking experts refer to as a(n):

opinion

primacy effect

other things being equal, information presented first usually has the most influence

Something being marketed is necessarily inferior

otherwise it would not need to be aggressively marketed. Marketing beyond conveying information is insecurity.

serial position effect

our tendency to recall best the last (a recency effect) and first items (a primacy effect) in a list

Furtive fallacy

outcomes are asserted to have been caused by the malfeasance of decision makers.

Authority Bias

over-valuing the opinion of someone who is seen as an expert on the topic

"A Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence

pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking."

There's a mistaken desire to intervene

particularly from doctors, that can lead to "iatrogenics," which means "harm caused by the healer."

identifiable victim effect

people are more generous toward identifiable (vs. statistical) victims

Do not invest in business plans but in people

people who could change careers six or seven times

hindsight bias

people's tendency to be overconfident about whether a given outcome was predictable

reactive devaluation

perceiving a proposed solution to a conflict negatively simply because the out-group offers it

Self-serving bias

perceiving oneself responsible for desirable outcomes but not responsible for undesirable ones.

mere exposure effect

phenomenon in which repeated exposure to a stimulus makes us more likely to feel favorably toward it

The Elements(of reasoning) Whenever you are reasoning, you are trying to accomplish some purpose, within a point of view, using concepts or ideas. You are focused on some question, issue, or problem, using information to come to conclusions, based on assumptions, all of which have implications.

purposes questions point of view information inferences concepts implications assumptions

context effect

putting yourself back in the context where you experienced something

Quantitative evidence

quantifies an observation or phenomenon—i.e., expresses it as a number or empirical measure

Informal fallacies: Faulty generalizations

reach a conclusion from weak premises. Unlike fallacies of relevance, in fallacies of defective induction, the premises are related to the conclusions yet only weakly buttress the conclusions. A faulty generalization is thus produced.

Which of the following is not a bad habit of thought?

reasoning from assumptions that are not one's own

Egocentric bias

recalling the past in a self-serving manner, e.g., remembering one's exam grades as being better than they were, or remembering a caught fish as bigger than it really was.

Fallacy of quoting out of context (contextomy)

refers to the selective excerpting of words from their original context in a way that distorts the source's intended meaning.

Choice-supportive bias

remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options (Mather, Shafir & Johnson, 2000)

Have a copilot. Have redundancy

remove asymmetries in your sensitivity to risk (or bias them in your favor).

Rhyme as reason effect

rhyming statements are perceived as more truthful

survivorship bias

sampling only surviving firms, mutual funds, hedge funds

The economic system is inherently fragile. Unlike

say, a bunch of restaurants in an area (fragile individually, antifragile as a whole - unpopular or bad restaurants will go down in favor of better liked ones), globalized economic systems operate as one entity - errors spread and compound. It is not possible to have small mistakes and learn from them, in a manner like the global aviation community learns from one major plane crash.

"Convincing— and confident— disciplines

say, physics, tend to use little statistical backup, while political science and economics, which have never produced anything of note, are full of elaborate statistics and statistical "evidence" (and you know that once you remove the smoke, the evidence is not evidence). The situation in science is similar to detective novels in which the person with the largest number of alibis turns out to be the guilty one."

Petitio principii

see begging the question.

Lag effect

see spacing effect.

Egocentric thinkers also also described as rigidity of thought

selfishly desire to maintain their beliefs and to validate their current way of thinking. As an innate human trait, egocentricity is pervasive in the human experience.

"For the antifragile

shocks bring more benefits (or less harm) as their intensity increases, up to a point." Ex: lifting a 100lb weight once is more beneficial than lifting a 1lb weight 100 times.

History is written by the losers (academicians) while the tinkerers move on to newer experiments. Academics rationalize after the fact - like putting a bird in a room

showering lectures at it, and assuming you taught it how to fly! Few academics will admit that we create theories from practice.

Argument from repetition (argumentum ad infinitum)

signifies that it has been discussed extensively until nobody cares to discuss it anymore; sometimes confused with proof by assertion

The pursuit of meaning within Big Data has brought about many more spurious and random relationships than meaningful understanding. The false relationships will grow much faster than the real one

simply because chance allows so many more of them to be found.

In analyzing causation, looking for a causal factor that is present in one situation but absent in another, similar, situation is called the:

single difference method.

Taleb shares a story of his article being aggressively edited for writing style by the Washington Post

so he pulled it and gave it to The Financial Times, who only made one edit, to correct a date. He points out that WaPo, in trying to over-edit, missed the only important error.

Only large corporations can afford to sell you things that kill you. Small ones go bust too easily

so there is a risk from taking advice and products that could not survive on small scales.

Fallacy of many questions (complex question, fallacy of presupposition, loaded question, plurium interrogationum)

someone asks a question that presupposes something that has not been proven or accepted by all the people involved. This fallacy is often used rhetorically, so that the question limits direct replies to those that serve the questioner's agenda.

From the author's own toolbox of experiences - at a job

start each day expecting the worst case to come true. The rest of the day is then a bonus. Before you start a job, write the resignation letter, put it in a drawer, lock it away and then you'll find yourself free each day at the job, knowing that you made it easy to quit.

Proof by verbosity (argumentum verbosium, proof by intimidation)

submission of others to an argument too complex and verbose to reasonably deal with in all its intimate details. (See also Gish Gallop and argument from authority.)

There are two forms: the obvious iatrogenics

such as amputating the wrong leg, and the non-obvious iatrogenics, such as carelessly prescribing antidepressants and ADHD medication.

Appeal to poverty (argumentum ad Lazarum)

supporting a conclusion because the arguer is poor (or refuting because the arguer is wealthy). (Opposite of appeal to wealth.)

The future lies mostly in the past - Vibrams shoes of today mimic barefootedness of the past

tablet computers with touchscreens are closer to Babylonian tablets. Both of these are new inventions that resulted after a bunch of 'unnatural' iterations.

duration neglect

tendency of people in thinking about an emotional event to overlook how long it lasts

actor-observer effect

tendency to attribute our own behavior to external sources, behavior of others to internal sources

in-group bias

tendency to favor individuals within our group over those from outside our group

Conservatism or Regressive bias

tendency to remember high values and high likelihoods/probabilities/frequencies lower than they actually were and low ones higher than they actually were. Based on the evidence, memories are not extreme enough.

Placement bias

tendency to remember ourselves to be better than others at tasks at which we rate ourselves above average (also Illusory superiority or Better-than-average effect) and tendency to remember ourselves to be worse than others at tasks at which we rate ourselves below average (also Worse-than-average effect).

Next-in-line effect

that a person in a group has diminished recall for the words of others who spoke immediately before or after this person.

Von Restorff effect

that an item that sticks out is more likely to be remembered than other items (von Restorff, 1933).

Memory inhibition

that being shown some items from a list makes it harder to retrieve the other items (e.g., Slamecka, 1968).

Picture superiority effect

that concepts are much more likely to be remembered experientially if they are presented in picture form than if they are presented in word form.

Levels-of-processing effect

that different methods of encoding information into memory have different levels of effectiveness (Craik & Lockhart, 1972).

Testing effect

that frequent testing of material that has been committed to memory improves memory recall.

Common human mistake - absence of evidence (confirming harm) is the same as evidence of absence (of harm itself). This is akin to a group of turkeys fed well months before Thanksgiving

that humans absolutely love them. The butchering days before Thanksgiving comes as a black swan event! 'Not being a turkey' starts with figuring out the difference between true and perceived/manufactured stability.

Humor effect

that humorous items are more easily remembered than non-humorous ones, which might be explained by the distinctiveness of humor, the increased cognitive processing time to understand the humor, or the emotional arousal caused by the humor.

Spacing effect

that information is better recalled if exposure to it is repeated over a longer span of time.

"This is the central illusion in life: that randomness is risky

that it is a bad thing— and that eliminating randomness is done by eliminating randomness."

Primacy effect, Recency effect & Serial position effect

that items near the end of a list are the easiest to recall, followed by the items at the beginning of a list; items in the middle are the least likely to be remembered.

Implement antifragility like a barbell - with the two ends of the barbells being two approaches - paranoia at one end (for negative Black Swan events) and aggressive risk-taking at the other end (for positive Black Swan events). But these must be implemented as two separate strategies for two different categories (not mixed into one 'middle of the road' approach

that leads to nowhere).

Modality effect

that memory recall is higher for the last items of a list when the list items were received via speech than when they were received via writing.

Misinformation effect

that misinformation affects people's reports of their own memory.

Positivity effect

that older adults favor positive over negative information in their memories.

Illusion-of-truth effect

that people are more likely to identify as true statements those they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them), regardless of the actual validity of the statement. In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.

Peak-end rule

that people seem to perceive not the sum of an experience but the average of how it was at its peak (e.g. pleasant or unpleasant) and how it ended.

Generation effect (Self-generation effect)

that self-generated information is remembered best. For instance, people are better able to recall memories of statements that they have generated than similar statements generated by others.

Paul and Elder believe that ethical principles common to all humans can be found in:

the Universal Declaration of Human Rights

bottom-up processing

the analysis of the smaller features to build up to a complete perception

Shotgun argumentation

the arguer offers such a large number of arguments for a position that the opponent can't possibly respond to all of them. (See "Argument by verbosity" and "Gish Gallop", above.)

Tu quoque ("you too", appeal to hypocrisy, I'm rubber and you're glue)

the argument states that a certain position is false or wrong or should be disregarded because its proponent fails to act consistently in accordance with that position.

Retrospective determinism

the argument that because some event has occurred, its occurrence must have been inevitable beforehand.

spotlight effect

the belief that others are paying more attention to our appearance and behavior than they really are

hot hand fallacy

the belief that random sequences exhibit a positive correlation

Ludic fallacy

the belief that the outcomes of non-regulated random occurrences can be encapsulated by a statistic; a failure to take into account unknown unknowns in determining the probability of events taking place.

just-world hypothesis

the cognitive bias that good things happen to good people and bad things happen to bad people

Appeal to consequences (argumentum ad consequentiam)

the conclusion is supported by a premise that asserts positive or negative consequences from some course of action in an attempt to distract from the initial discussion.

"For the fragile

the cumulative effect of small shocks is smaller than the single effect of an equivalent single large shock."

Related

the cure to procrastination on the job is not to force yourself to create systems that fix it, rather, to find an occupation where you do not have to fight your impulses and where you do not procrastinate.

Argumentum ad hominem

the evasion of the actual topic by directing an attack at your opponent.

clustering illusion

the human tendency to perceive patterns where no patterns exist or random events

illusion of salience

the impression conveyed by polls that something is important to the public when it actually is not

Mood congruent memory bias

the improved recall of information congruent with one's current mood.

Hindsight bias

the inclination to see past events as being predictable; also called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect.

Gambler's fallacy

the incorrect belief that separate, independent events can affect the likelihood of another random event. If a fair coin lands on heads 10 times in a row, the belief that it is "due to the number of times it had previously landed on tails" is incorrect.

A common problem with applying the critical thinking standard of clarity to information is:

the information isn't clear

Intentionality fallacy

the insistence that the ultimate meaning of an expression must be consistent with the intention of the person from whom the communication originated (e.g. a work of fiction that is widely received as a blatant allegory must necessarily not be regarded as such if the author intended it not to be so.)

Equivocation

the misleading use of a term with more than one meaning (by glossing over which meaning is intended at a particular time).

sunk cost fallacy

the mistake of letting sunk costs affect forward-looking decisions; psychological tendency to make an investment pay off when something happens to render it obsolete

The more complicated the system

the more prone it is to arbitrage by insiders.

There's a reason the boss assigns the new pressing task to the busiest person on the team (apart from them being reliable). The more strained you are

the more your intellectual abilities are available for use. (N.Taleb merely touches upon this, Kahneman has a detailed discussion of this in Thinking Fast and Slow).

Spontaneous Order

the natural and undirected emergence of order out of seeming chaos

distributive justice

the perceived degree to which outcomes and rewards are fairly distributed or allocated

Self-reference effect

the phenomena that memories encoded with relation to the self are better recalled than similar information encoded otherwise.

status quo bias

the preference to keep things the way they are rather than change

rosy retrospection

the recall of events more positively than thought of at the time

Reminiscence bump

the recalling of more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than personal events from other lifetime periods (Rubin, Wetzler & Nebes, 1986; Rubin, Rahhal & Poon, 1998).

Rosy retrospection

the remembering of the past as having been better than it really was.

Childhood amnesia

the retention of few memories from before the age of four.

critical mass

the smallest possible mass of a fissionable material that can sustain a chain reaction

illusion of unanimity

the statement of group agreement while private doubts and disagreements are suppressed

Gender differences in eyewitness memory

the tendency for a witness to remember more details about someone of the same gender.

effort justification

the tendency for individuals to increase their liking for something they have worked hard to attain

positivity effect

the tendency for older people to focus on positive experiences and screen out negative events

Cross-race effect

the tendency for people of one race to have difficulty identifying members of a race other than their own.

availability bias

the tendency for people to base their judgments on information that is readily available to them

endowment effect

the tendency for people to inflate the value of objects, goods, or services they already own

Barnum effect

the tendency for people to see themselves in vague, stock descriptions of personality

Telescoping effect

the tendency to displace recent events backward in time and remote events forward in time, so that recent events appear more remote, and remote events, more recent.

Subadditivity effect

the tendency to estimate that the likelihood of a remembered event is less than the sum of its (more than two) mutually exclusive components.

Google effect

the tendency to forget information that can be easily found online.

ultimate attribution error

the tendency to make dispositional attributions about an entire group of people

illusion of transparency

the tendency to overestimate another's ability to know our internal thoughts and feelings

false consensus effect

the tendency to overestimate the commonality of one's opinions and unsuccessful behaviors

social desirability bias

the tendency to respond to questions in a socially desirable manner

Confirmation bias

the tendency to search for, interpret, or recall information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses.

egocentrism

the tendency to view everything in relationship to oneself;

illusory superiority

the tendency to view oneself as superior to others, 'better-than-average effect'

paradigm shift

the term used to describe a change in basic assumptions of a particular scientific discipline; Rare, radical changes in thought or scientific views.

third-person effect

the theory that people believe others are more affected by media messages than they are themselves

Persistence

the unwanted recurrence of memories of a traumatic event.

top down processing

the use of preexisting knowledge to organize individual features into a unified whole

Suffix effect

the weakening of the recency effect in the case that an item is appended to the list that the subject is not required to recall (Morton, Crowder & Prussin, 1971).

Crowdsourcing

the wisdom of the crowd; Inviting broad communities of people into the new product innovation process

You want to create an upside-downside asymmetry - if unexpected events create less downside than upside

then you are antifragile. If they don't create downside (true for stoics), you are at least robust.

Certain fields do not have negative forms

there's no opposite of someone buying your book, so authors have more options because they have less downside.

Three functions of the mind

thinking feeling wanting

It is a result of convex curves that we are moving more and more into Extremistan - while the 80:20 rule held earlier

today we see the 99:1 rule in many ways. For instance, 1% controlling more than 99% of the wealth.

unknown unknown

uncertainty omitted from planning because the decision maker is unaware of its presence

cryptomnesia

unconscious plagiarism of the work of others; failure to recognize that our ideas originated with someone else

planning fallacy

underestimating how long it will take to complete a task

halo effect

uses one attribute to develop an overall impression of a person or situation

Proving too much

using a form of argument that, if it were valid, could be used more generally to reach an absurd conclusion.

out-group homogeneity bias

viewing members of out-groups as being more similar to one another than members of in-groups

Drink no liquid that isn't at least a thousand years old (wine

water, coffee). Eat nothing invented or re-engineered by humans.

In nature

we had to expend energy to eat. Lions do not eat then hunt for fun. Fasting is quite good for us, and natural. We do not need to load up on food before doing something, rather, re-feed after.

Hiding or distorting evidence illustrates which of the following?

weak-sense thinking

We see similar antifragile benefits from fasting

weight lifting, running. And we also see that depriving systems of these beneficial stressors is harmful, as is evidenced by any person who has never been hungry or never exercised.

our mind continually communicates three kinds of messages to us:

what's happening in our life feelings (positive or negative) about what's happening things to pursue or direct our energy toward

No true Scotsman

when a generalization is made true only when a counterexample is ruled out on shaky grounds.

Survivorship bias

when a small number of survivors of a given process are actively promoted while completely ignoring a large number of failures

Tip of the tongue

when a subject is able to recall parts of an item, or related information, but is frustratingly unable to recall the whole item. This is thought to be an instance of "blocking" where multiple similar memories are being recalled and interfere with each other.

Pareidolia

when a vague stimulus is perceived as being important or relevant, even when it's not.

Misattribution of memory

when information is retained in memory but the source of the memory is forgotten. One of Schacter's (1999) Seven Sins of Memory, Misattribution was divided into Source Confusion, Cryptomnesia and False Recall/False Recognition.

next-in-line effect

when next in line, we focus on our own performance and often fail to process the last person's words

Nirvana fallacy (perfect solution fallacy)

when solutions to problems are rejected because they are not perfect.

Circular reasoning (circulus in demonstrando)

when the reasoner begins with what he or she is trying to end up with; sometimes called assuming the conclusion.

curse of knowledge

when we know something, we often make the mistake of assuming others know it too

Homunculus fallacy

where a "middle-man" is used for explanation, this sometimes leads to regressive middle-men. Explains without actually explaining the real nature of a function or a process. Instead, it explains the concept in terms of the concept itself, without first defining or explaining the original concept. Explaining thought as something produced by a little thinker, a sort of homunculus inside the head, merely explains it as another kind of thinking (as different but the same).

Genetic fallacy

where a conclusion is suggested based solely on something or someone's origin rather than its current meaning or context.

Correlative-based fallacies: Suppressed correlative

where a correlative is redefined so that one alternative is made impossible.

ergo decedo

where a critic's perceived affiliation is seen as the underlying reason for the criticism and the critic is asked to stay away from the issue altogether.

Appeal to motive

where a premise is dismissed by calling into question the motives of its proposer.

Special pleading

where a proponent of a position attempts to cite something as an exemption to a generally accepted rule or principle without justifying the exemption.

Appeal to novelty (argumentum novitatis/antiquitatis)

where a proposal is claimed to be superior or better solely because it is new or modern.

Argumentum ad populum (appeal to widespread belief, bandwagon argument, appeal to the majority, appeal to the people)

where a proposition is claimed to be true or good solely because many people believe it to be so.

Chronological snobbery

where a thesis is deemed incorrect because it was commonly held when something else, clearly false, was also commonly held.

Appeal to emotion

where an argument is made due to the manipulation of emotions, rather than the use of valid reasoning.

Appeal to authority (argumentum ab auctoritate)

where an assertion is deemed true because of the position or authority of the person asserting it.

Appeal to equality

where an assertion is deemed true or false based on an assumed pretense of equality.

Appeal to accomplishment

where an assertion is deemed true or false based on the accomplishments of the proposer.

Inconsistent comparison

where different methods of comparison are used, leaving one with a false impression of the whole comparison.

Procrustean bed - named a Greek inn-keeper who made his guests fit to his bed by stretching or chopping their limbs. You will encounter many logical Procrustean beds in life

where the non-linear is simplified to the linear.

Appeal to nature

wherein judgment is based solely on whether the subject of judgment is 'natural' or 'unnatural'.

Obvious decisions

which are robust to error, require no more than a single reason. By invoking more than one reason, you are convincing yourself to do something - so if you find yourself giving more than one reason for an important decision, look deeper.

Taleb is a big proponent of trial and error

which he calls tinkering, as a way to figure things out and expose yourself to large potential upsides.

Fragility in the medical field - interventionism by doctors and over-medication leads to harm that is not visible (takes 3/4th of a generation to show up). Humans assume "no evidence of harm" to be "evidence of no harm"

which is dangerous. For instance, synthetic fats like margarine were considered to be a great invention until the heart effects showed up.

Etymological fallacy

which reasons that the original or historical meaning of a word or phrase is necessarily similar to its actual present-day usage.

Option = asymmetry + rationality. It allows for big discoveries

while restricting oneself to small errors.

Taleb tells the story of someone who traded green lumber and made a considerable profit from it

while thinking that green lumber was literally logs painted green, not knowing it was fresh wood. But not knowing this fact did not affect his ability to trade it effectively. So when we assume some information is necessary and important when it really isn't, we're committing the green lumber fallacy.

Fragilistas - A condescending term the author uses for folks who cause more harm

while trying to do good, by being overprotective and encouraging fragility. This includes overprotective parents who shield their kids from harm, medical experts who prescribe more medication for every small issue rather than helping develop immunity and health.

Optionality makes you antifragile - the ability to change course lets you benefit from the positive side of uncertainty

without serious harm from the negative side.

"If you see a fraud and do not say fraud

you are a fraud."

When you create optionality for yourself (convex curves)

you can do worse than random (be wrong more than 50% of the time) and still making a killing, since the payoffs from being right are high.

Or

you can take a very safe day job while you work on your literature. You balance the extreme randomness and riskiness of a writing career with a safe job.

Or

you do a serial barbell, where you have pure action then pure reflection (Seneca, Montaigne).

As another formulation

you do not need to understand aerodynamics or physics to ride a bicycle.

Catalysts

A catalyst either kick-starts or maintains a chemical reaction, but isn't itself a reactant. The reaction may slow or stop without the addition of catalysts. Social systems, of course, take on many similar traits, and we can view catalysts in a similar light.

Preferential Attachment (Cumulative Advantage)

A preferential attachment situation occurs when the current leader is given more of the reward than the laggards, thereby tending to preserve or enhance the status of the leader. A strong network effect is a good example of preferential attachment; a market with 10x more buyers and sellers than the next largest market will tend to have a preferential attachment dynamic.

Fat-Tailed Processes (Extremistan)

A process can often look like a normal distribution but have a large "tail" - meaning that seemingly outlier events are far more likely than they are in an actual normal distribution. A strategy or process may be far more risky than a normal distribution is capable of describing if the fat tail is on the negative side, or far more profitable if the fat tail is on the positive side. Much of the human social world is said to be fat-tailed rather than normally distributed.

Criticality

A system becomes critical when it is about to jump discretely from one phase to another. The marginal utility of the last unit before the phase change is wildly higher than any unit before it. A frequently cited example is water turning from a liquid to a vapor when heated to a specific temperature. "Critical mass" refers to the mass needed to have the critical event occur, most commonly in a nuclear system.

Power Laws

One of the most common processes that does not fit the normal distribution is that of a power law, whereby one quantity varies with another's exponent rather than linearly. For example, the Richter scale describes the power of earthquakes on a power-law distribution scale: an 8 is 10x more destructive than a 7, and a 9 is 10x more destructive than an 8. The central limit theorem does not apply and there is thus no "average" earthquake. This is true of all power-law distributions.

Law of Large Numbers

One of the fundamental underlying assumptions of probability is that as more instances of an event occur, the actual results will converge on the expected ones. For example, if I know that the average man is 5 feet 10 inches tall, I am far more likely to get an average of 5′10″ by selecting 500 men at random than 5 men at random. The opposite of this model is the law of small numbers, which states that small samples can and should be looked at with great skepticism.

Laws of Thermodynamics

The laws of thermodynamics describe energy in a closed system. The laws cannot be escaped and underlie the physical world. They describe a world in which useful energy is constantly being lost, and energy cannot be created or destroyed. Applying their lessons to the social world can be a profitable enterprise.

Extinction

The inability to survive can cause an extinction event, whereby an entire species ceases to compete and replicate effectively. Once its numbers have dwindled to a critically low level, an extinction can be unavoidable (and predictable) given the inability to effectively replicate in large enough numbers.

Algebraic Equivalence

The introduction of algebra allowed us to demonstrate mathematically and abstractly that two seemingly different things could be the same. By manipulating symbols, we can demonstrate equivalence or inequivalence, the use of which led humanity to untold engineering and technical abilities. Knowing at least the basics of algebra can allow us to understand a variety of important results.

Simple Physiological Reward-Seeking

All organisms feel pleasure and pain from simple chemical processes in their bodies which respond predictably to the outside world. Reward-seeking is an effective survival-promoting technique on average. However, those same pleasure receptors can be co-opted to cause destructive behavior, as with drug abuse.

Black Swan

Also popularized by Nassim Taleb, a Black Swan is a rare and highly consequential event that is invisible to a given observer ahead of time. It is a result of applied epistemology: If you have seen only white swans, you cannot categorically state that there are no black swans, but the inverse is not true: seeing one black swan is enough for you to state that there are black swans. Black Swan events are necessarily unpredictable to the observer (as Taleb likes to say, Thanksgiving is a Black Swan for the turkey, not the butcher) and thus must be dealt with by addressing the fragility-robustness-antifragility spectrum rather than through better methods of prediction.

Inertia

An object in motion with a certain vector wants to continue moving in that direction unless acted upon. This is a fundamental physical principle of motion; however, individuals, systems, and organizations display the same effect. It allows them to minimize the use of energy, but can cause them to be destroyed or eroded.

Tendency to Distort Due to Liking/Loving or Disliking/Hating

Based on past association, stereotyping, ideology, genetic influence, or direct experience, humans have a tendency to distort their thinking in favor of people or things that they like and against people or things they dislike. This tendency leads to overrating the things we like and underrating or broadly categorizing things we dislike, often missing crucial nuances in the process.

Gresham's Law

Gresham's Law, named for the financier Thomas Gresham, states that in a system of circulating currency, forged currency will tend to drive out real currency, as real currency is hoarded and forged currency is spent. We see a similar result in human systems, as with bad behavior driving out good behavior in a crumbling moral system, or bad practices driving out good practices in a crumbling economic system. Generally, regulation and oversight are required to prevent results that follow Gresham's Law.

Second-Order Thinking

In all human systems and most complex systems, the second layer of effects often dwarfs the first layer, yet often goes unconsidered. In other words, we must consider that effects have effects. Second-order thinking is best illustrated by the idea of standing on your tiptoes at a parade: Once one person does it, everyone will do it in order to see, thus negating the first tiptoer. Now, however, the whole parade audience suffers on their toes rather than standing firmly on their whole feet.

Seizing the Middle

In chess, the winning strategy is usually to seize control of the middle of the board, so as to maximize the potential moves that can be made and control the movement of the maximal number of pieces. The same strategy works profitably in business, as can be demonstrated by John D. Rockefeller's control of the refinery business in the early days of the oil trade and Microsoft's control of the operating system in the early days of the software trade.

Via Negativa - Omission/Removal/Avoidance of Harm

In many systems, improvement is at best, or at times only, a result of removing bad elements rather than of adding good elements. This is a credo built into the modern medical profession: First, do no harm. Similarly, if one has a group of children behaving badly, removal of the instigator is often much more effective than any form of punishment meted out to the whole group.

Compounding

It's been said that Einstein called compounding a wonder of the world. He probably didn't, but it is a wonder. Compounding is the process by which we add interest to a fixed sum, which then earns interest on the previous sum and the newly added interest, and then earns interest on that amount, and so on ad infinitum. It is an exponential effect, rather than a linear, or additive, effect. Money is not the only thing that compounds; ideas and relationships do as well. In tangible realms, compounding is always subject to physical limits and diminishing returns; intangibles can compound more freely. Compounding also leads to the time value of money, which underlies all of modern finance.

Pavlovian Mere Association

Ivan Pavlov very effectively demonstrated that animals can respond not just to direct incentives but also to associated objects; remember the famous dogs salivating at the ring of a bell. Human beings are much the same and can feel positive and negative emotion towards intangible objects, with the emotion coming from past associations rather than direct effects.

Scale

One of the most important principles of systems is that they are sensitive to scale. Properties (or behaviors) tend to change when you scale them up or down. In studying complex systems, we must always be roughly quantifying - in orders of magnitude, at least - the scale at which we are observing, analyzing, or predicting the system

Availability Heuristic

One of the most useful findings of modern psychology is what Daniel Kahneman calls the Availability Bias or Heuristic: We tend to most easily recall what is salient, important, frequent, and recent. The brain has its own energy-saving and inertial tendencies that we have little control over - the availability heuristic is likely one of them. Having a truly comprehensive memory would be debilitating. Some sub-examples of the availability heuristic include the Anchoring and Sunk Cost Tendencies.

Fragility - Robustness - Antifragility

Popularized by Nassim Taleb, the sliding scale of fragility, robustness, and antifragility refers to the responsiveness of a system to incremental negative variability. A fragile system or object is one in which additional negative variability has a disproportionately negative impact, as with a coffee cup shattering from a 6-foot fall, but receiving no damage at all (rather than 1/6th of the damage) from a 1-foot fall. A robust system or object tends to be neutral to the additional negativity variability, and of course, an antifragile system benefits: If there were a cup that got stronger when dropped from 6 feet than when dropped from 1 foot, it would be termed antifragile.

Relativity

Relativity has been used in several contexts in the world of physics, but the important aspect to study is the idea that an observer cannot truly understand a system of which he himself is a part. For example, a man inside an airplane does not feel like he is experiencing movement, but an outside observer can see that movement is occurring. This form of relativity tends to affect social systems in a similar way.

Influence of Stress (Including Breaking Points)

Stress causes both mental and physiological responses and tends to amplify the other biases. Almost all human mental biases become worse in the face of stress as the body goes into a fight-or-flight response, relying purely on instinct without the emergency brake of Daniel Kahneman's "System 2" type of reasoning. Stress causes hasty decisions, immediacy, and a fallback to habit, thus giving rise to the elite soldiers' motto: "In the thick of battle, you will not rise to the level of your expectations, but fall to the level of your training."

The Lindy Effect

The Lindy Effect refers to the life expectancy of a non-perishable object or idea being related to its current lifespan. If an idea or object has lasted for X number of years, it would be expected (on average) to last another X years. Although a human being who is 90 and lives to 95 does not add 5 years to his or her life expectancy, non-perishables lengthen their life expectancy as they continually survive. A classic text is a prime example: if humanity has been reading Shakespeare's plays for 500 years, it will be expected to read them for another 500.

Comparative Advantage

The Scottish economist David Ricardo had an unusual and non-intuitive insight: Two individuals, firms, or countries could benefit from trading with one another even if one of them was better at everything. Comparative advantage is best seen as an applied opportunity cost: If it has the opportunity to trade, an entity gives up free gains in productivity by not focusing on what it does best.

Default Status

The USCB ecologist/economist Garrett Hardin once said that "The scientific mind is not closed: it is merely well-guarded by a conscientious and seldom sleeping gatekeeper." The way it does that is with the concept of the default status: The "resting position" of common sense, whereby the burden of proof falls on assertions to the contrary. Given the problem of opportunity costs and limited time and energy, a default status is nearly always necessary to avoid wasting time. Examples include the laws of thermodynamics, the law of natural selection, and the incentive-caused bias.

Influence of Authority

The equally famous Stanford Prison Experiment and Milgram Experiments demonstrated what humans had learned practically many years before: the human bias towards being influenced by authority. In a dominance hierarchy such as ours, we tend to look to the leader for guidance on behavior, especially in situations of stress or uncertainty. Thus, authority figures have a responsibility to act well, whether they like it or not.

The Red Queen Effect (Co-evolutionary Arms Race)

The evolution-by-natural-selection model leads to something of an arms race among species competing for limited resources. When one species evolves an advantageous adaptation, a competing species must respond in kind or fail as a species. Standing pat can mean falling behind. This arms race is called the Red Queen Effect for the character in Alice in Wonderland who said, "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."

Permutations and Combinations

The mathematics of permutations and combinations leads us to understand the practical probabilities of the world around us, how things can be ordered, and how we should think about things.

Language Instinct

The psychologist Steven Pinker calls our DNA-level instinct to learn grammatically constructed language the Language Instinct. The idea that grammatical language is not a simple cultural artifact was first popularized by the linguist Noam Chomsky. As we saw with the narrative instinct, we use these instincts to create shared stories, as well as to gossip, solve problems, and fight, among other things. Grammatically ordered language theoretically carries infinite varying meaning.

Irreducibility

We find that in most systems there are irreducible quantitative properties, such as complexity, minimums, time, and length. Below the irreducible level, the desired result simply does not occur. One cannot get several women pregnant to reduce the amount of time needed to have one child, and one cannot reduce a successfully built automobile to a single part. These results are, to a defined point, irreducible.

Curiosity Instinct

We like to call other species curious, but we are the most curious of all, an instinct which led us out of the savanna and led us to learn a great deal about the world around us, using that information to create the world in our collective minds. The curiosity instinct leads to unique human behavior and forms of organization like the scientific enterprise. Even before there were direct incentives to innovate, humans innovated out of curiosity.

Tendency to Want to Do Something (Fight/Flight, Intervention, Demonstration of Value, etc.)

We might term this Boredom Syndrome: Most humans have the tendency to need to act, even when their actions are not needed. We also tend to offer solutions even when we do not enough knowledge to solve the problem.

Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior (Fundamental Attribution Error)

We tend to over-ascribe the behavior of others to their innate traits rather than to situational factors, leading us to overestimate how consistent that behavior will be in the future. In such a situation, predicting behavior seems not very difficult. Of course, in practice this assumption is consistently demonstrated to be wrong, and we are consequently surprised when others do not act in accordance with the "innate" traits we've endowed them with.

Falsification / Confirmation Bias

What a man wishes, he also believes. Similarly, what we believe is what we choose to see. This is commonly referred to as the confirmation bias. It is a deeply ingrained mental habit, both energy-conserving and comfortable, to look for confirmations of long-held wisdom rather than violations. Yet the scientific process - including hypothesis generation, blind testing when needed, and objective statistical rigor - is designed to root out precisely the opposite, which is why it works so well when followed. The modern scientific enterprise operates under the principle of falsification: A method is termed scientific if it can be stated in such a way that a certain defined result would cause it to be proved false. Pseudo-knowledge and pseudo-science operate and propagate by being unfalsifiable - as with astrology, we are unable to prove them either correct or incorrect because the conditions under which they would be shown false are never stated.

Representativeness Heuristic

a. Failure to Account for Base Rates An unconscious failure to look at past odds in determining current or future behavior. b. Tendency to Stereotype The tendency to broadly generalize and categorize rather than look for specific nuance. Like availability, this is generally a necessary trait for energy-saving in the brain. c. Failure to See False Conjunctions Most famously demonstrated by the Linda Test, the same two psychologists showed that students chose more vividly described individuals as more likely to fit into a predefined category than individuals with broader, more inclusive, but less vivid descriptions, even if the vivid example was a mere subset of the more inclusive set. These specific examples are seen as more representative of the category than those with the broader but vaguer descriptions, in violation of logic and probability.

Exaptation

ntroduced by the biologist Steven Jay Gould, an exaptation refers to a trait developed for one purpose that is later used for another purpose. This is one way to explain the development of complex biological features like an eyeball; in a more primitive form, it may have been used for something else. Once it was there, and once it developed further, 3D sight became possible.