Midterm 2

mount tambora?

"The Year Without a Summer." in Indonesia for a year and thousands starved, largest eruption ever

biological pump feedback

+ feedback: CaCO2 is relatively dense as a ballast once an organism dies, it carries the tissue to the deep ocean - this allows more co2 to be absorbed - less ballast, less ability of ocean to take upCO2 + Feedback: a slowing of ocean circulation reduces the mixing of nutrients

ocean carbon cycle feedbacks:

+ feedback: a warmer ocean has less ability to to absorb co2 - feedback: ocean acidification reduces the production of calcium carbonate by organisms like coral and plankton --when organisms grow their CaCO3 skeletons, CO2 is released to water and calcification reduces the oceans ability to take up co2 ===== Less calcification will increase the oceans ability to absorb atmospheric co2

land biosphere carbon cycle feedbacks :

+ feedbacks: warmer land leads to increased growth, so they die and respiration of soil microorganisms, carbon in soils is now being converted to co2 at increasing rates - feedbacks: plants increase their growth in response to elevated Co2 and store more Co2 away taking it away from the atm.

there are many scenarios of forecasts for future co2 emissions : list them....

- "middle of the road"; warming of 1.0 to 2.6 C between 2000 and 2100

why are wetlands important?

- bc they provide an important service to their surroundings. - and allow storm water to come in and lose energy and spread out across a broad area, reducing flooding downstream

Scientists can draw conclusions based on:

- best- guess scenarios of fossil fuels burning - average projections of climate models

what will happen to those not inundated by high sea levels?

- experience increased exposure to flood and storm damage -more intense coastal surges -altered patterns of coastal erosion

what do reefs provide?

- food for hundreds of millions of people - a defense barrier against tropical cyclones and tsunamis - source of tourism income 11.5 B

july 2014 toxic algal bloom in Lake Erie. Have these events gotten more frequent?

- led to the ban on use of tap water for drinking, cooking, and bathing, for 500k residents in Ohio - yes, more frequent bc of warming of fresh water bodies

what are the associated impacts?

- loss of human life, damage to infrastructure, degraded water quality, less available fresh water due to salt water intrusion, loss of coastal habitats, population displacement

what about polar politics?

- lots of ff, minerals, and diamonds waiting to be explored and exploited

Species diversity today is a result of what? Humans are likened in their effect to what disaster?

- millions of years of evolutionary interaction between life and its environment -mass extinctions of life in the past such as the asteroid impact that made the dinosaurs go extinct 65 mya

climate test the resilience of what ? - some organisms can ... but for others the rate of change is too great leading to ecosystem..... and ......

- natural ecosystems, - destruction and a loss of biodiversity

warming where for when ?

- north E in winter - s and central for summer

the ...... forecast in the middle of the road scenario would have international implications and

- open arctic ocean - the NA and Eurasian nations will suddenly have new northern coastlines to defend

all stabilization targets need .... in co2 emissions following the peak. - Low stabilization levels require Co2 emission rates to

- sharp reductions - fall below the current rates in a few decades

if ffb continue to increase, what will happen to corals? How do we reduce this catastrophe?

- they will be unable to grow skeletons by the end of the century - by reducing or eliminating CO2 emissions or to sequester it before it escapes into the atmosphere

why are future projections of climate change uncertain ? 2 factors?

- unknown trajectory of future GHG emissions - uncertain response of the climate to the emissions

what do projections show in general?

- wet areas will become wetter - dry areas will become drier - dramatic decrease in arctic sea ice -acceleration of sea level rise increased drought, flooding, and extreme weather

-----------------------pt 4

------------------------

how much is at risk with a temperature rise of 4.0 C? Is extinction reversible?

-40- 70% - no

why are we having diverse changes when it comes to increased droughts and flooding?

-bc of a complex pattern of shifting rain belts -more vigorous cycling of water in a warmer atmosphere - increasing evaporation form the surface

Why are ecosystems valuable to humanity?

-bc they give us food, fiber, and medicine and cosmetics -bc they regulate climate and water - purify water and air - sequester carbon - protect from natural disasters, disease, and pests - we can appreciate their beauty

the polar bear depends on what to reach and feed on seals? What does the earlier breakup and retreat of sea-ice force polar bears to do?

-expansive sea-ice cover - to stay on the tundra where they fast and survive on fat reserves

heat can kill, describe the European Heat wave: Russian Heat Wave:

-in 2003, 15 k french died and fatalities in Europe were 35K, elderly died, summer 2010 in Russia 15 k dead

what is the growing concern over the monteverde cloud forest reserve?

-its 26K acres w/ 6 ecological zones and very high biodiversity (2,500 plants, 100 mammal spe, 500 bird spe, 120 rep and amph spe, thousands of insects

the combination of warmer water, more intense rainfall events, and longer periods of low river and stream levels do what? When you include other pop. growth and increased urbanization, these impacts put lots of pressure on ...?

-make water pollution even worse - freshwater supplies

It may be our own best interest to ? what's the choice we face?

-reduce the buildup of atm. CO2 not just to save the reefs but for other reasons too. - continue emitting co2 or reduce/ eliminate ffe.

if sea levels were to rise by 4-8 m what would be submerged? What is this amount guaranteed by?

-southern florida -the melting of Greenland alone

Climate stress does what to human society and leads to competition for what?

-stress - competition for food supplies, increased risks to human health, and international conflict

how much flooding did sandy add?

0.3m, 65 km^2

what is the latest projection suggest a rise of sea rise by?

0.5 to 1.2 m 2 to 4 ft by 2100

what do scientists think the rise of sea level will be by 2100

0.5 to 1.2 meters higher

ECM estimate foe the lgm?

1- 5 C (2-9F)

why?

1. water is less dense and expands as it warms, rise of 0.1 to 0.4 m by 2100 bc of this 2. melting of continental ice like mountain glaciers and ice caps, this adds 0.5 m of sea level rise

nearly how much of the worlds population lives in coastal and low-lying regions (10 m from the sea level)

10%

750 ppm lets CO2 increase by how much? 550 ppm target lets Co2 increase by how much?

100% 50%

geologists estimate that the ancient atmospheres contained as much as

1500 ppm of CO2 and even more

some environmental systems operate on a Hysteresis loop where there are ...

2 stable states

model simulations match the proxy record well when the equilibrium climate sensitivty is

2-3 C (3.6 to 5.4)

proxy co2 data give a climate sensitivity of

2-5 C (4-9F)

when combined with paleo-temperate measurements, proxy co2 data over teh last 4-- mya provide and equilibrium climate sensitivity of

2-5 C for each doubling of co2 , consistent w the data from the LGM and predictions of CO2

for every 1C increase in global temperature, there will be ..... additional pollution related deaths

20 k

......% of reefs have already been damaged beyond recovery, ....% are in critical condition and under risk of collapse

20, 50

loss of coral reefs from most sites is very likely by?

2050

how many people are in low-lying regions that are threatened by flooding ?

2M

the arctic is warming how much the rate of the globe for sea? for land ?

2x and the land mass is 5x as much

most likely, the values based on all the lines of evidence is very close to....

3 C

due to uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the best estimate is ...., range....

3 C , 1.5- 9 C this is a very range, so the effects of climate change can go from very mild to catastrophic

how much colder in the LGM ?

3- 8 C. general cooling in the mid to high latitudes , cooling was less at the poles

20% reduction in methane which is involved in ozone production would reduce ozone levels and save .... lives between now and 2030.

370 K

ar 5 has how many scenarios?

4 , called representative concentration pathways that are based on radiative forcing , denoted on radiative flux for the Earth's system by the end of the century

model simulations indicate that local Greenland warming by 2100 may exceed what temp?

4.0 c under the business as usual model of emissions

melting of greenland is sure to happen and cause how much rise? west antarctic ice sheet?

5 m -10 m

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet

5-7 m

co2 content back then was. ...

50 percent lower than what it is today . 180 ppm, -methane was about 1/5 of today's - nitrous oxide was about 2/3 of today's

average rainfall has increased by how much in northern Europe?

50%

in places like Bangladesh, this population figure is more like....

50%

co2 levels were high when? then fell when? then rose, fell, and rose again after 175 mya in the late triassic and stayed warm for another 100 my

500 mya 300 mya at the height of the permo-carboniferous glaciations on Gondwana

where did all the CO2 go?

55% of the co2 we put into the atmosphere disappeared, most of it has gone to the ocean and the rest is incorporated into living biomass via photosynthesis

melting of West Antarctic Ice sheet

5m ???

enso

El Nino Southern Oscillation,

how much will the climate change this century?

MOST CONSERVATIVE: RCP 2.6: 0.2-1.8C from 2000 to 2100 RCP 8.5: 1.2- 2.8C relative to preindustrial times LEAST CONSERVATIVE: Business as Usual RCP 2.6: 2.5-4.6C RCP 8.5: 3.8- 6.8C

which area has the potential to see the most warming?

North America

data from the LGM confirms its predictions for how the climate will respond to

a doubling of CO2

warmer nights favor what?

a fungus called chytrid, which is a fatal pathogen that grows on the skin of amphibians.

overall effect of the carbon cycle feedbacks is?

a more rapid buildup of atmospheric co2 and a warmer climate

What is the El Nino Southern Oscillation?

a natural, irregular oscillation of the climate system that involves inter-related changes in sea surface temperatures, ocean currents, and winds across the tropical pacific THERE IS ATMOSPHERE OCEAN COUPLING IN ENSO.

warming is reducing natures ability to

absorb atmospheric co2

warming does what to ozone production and what to air stagnation?

accelerates ozone production and promotes air stagnation causing increased tropospheric ozone levels.

what may offset some of the negative impacts of shifting patterns of water availability?

adaptations like reservoirs

what is sustainability?

an application of principles aimed at creating a harmonious coexistence of human civilization with the natural environment

what is an ecosystem?

an independent community of plants, animals, and microscopic organisms and their complex physical environment, they form a WHOLE and have unique Properties.

marine protected areas (MPAs) help what?

are proven effective at helping stop coral and fish losses and are of great economic benefit

1 C and increase in air pollution also produces increases in the incidents of .... and other respiratory illnesses.

asthma

what are the main reservoirs of carbon ?

atmosphere, ocean, land, plants, detrus, soil

increased weathering due to warming (co2) causes increased removal of ?

atmospheric co2

nature has already responded to fossil fuel burning and somewhat reduced human impact on ?

atmospheric composition and climate

in the middle east, the change in precipitation will create competition for available fresh water

available fresh water

why is there weak north atlantic warming ?

bc of a change in the ocean currents WEAKENING of THERMOTHALINE CIRCULATION

why is there global warming patterns over polar latitudes in the NH?

bc of the positive feedbacks of melting ice

why is it difficult to determine how extreme weather events such as tornadoes, sever thunderstorms, and hailstorms?

bc of their small scale nature/ processes

why is there larger warming in the NH?

bc that's where a lot of the land is and land warms faster than water.

why is there a particular stress on females?

bc they spend the winter in nursing dens and need easy access to seals in the spring to rebuild their fat reserves.

sea ice is predicted to rise how much?

between 0.5 to 1.2 meters by 2100

rcp 8.5

business as usual

scientists have been surprised by the what about greenland?

by the unprecedented, widespread surface melting since 2012.

co2 equivalent ghg concentration curves are converted to an emissions trajectory using

carbon cycle models, they are converted to graphs

when co2 dissolves into the ocean water its transformed to what? this does what?

carbonic acid - makes water less conductive to coral growth

today, we are close to the threshold temp for...

catastrophic ice sheet melting

how is climate sensitivity estimated?

climate models are compared to observations over the past 160 years

most models predict what?

climate will be a more el nino-like pattern, theres uncertainty about its magnitude, could decrease or increase in magnitude

Ecosystem boundaries are usually separated by what?

climate, ex: -- desert in subtropics -tropical rainforest near equator and tundra near poles

corals are found in both .... and .... environments, but the highly diverse reefs are found exclusively where?

cold and warm, in warm water

RCP 2.6

conservation/mitigation scenarios , future reduction of emissions

what is among the most vulnerable ecosystems? why?

coral reefs, bc they have little scope for adaptation

what are crevices/ moulins?

cracks and fissures in ice sheets, water can penetrate deep into the ice sheet and lubricate the base and allow large pieces of ice to slide into the ocean , this leads to far more rapid disintegration of ice sheets than predicted by current models.

as temps warm, the probability of frosts will;..... the greatest decrease will be in?

decrease - NA and ASIA

the spacing between consecutive extreme drought events (once in a hundred year events will...

decrease sharply in many regions by the 2070s for the middle for the road scenario SO MORE FREQUENT DROUGHTS

During LGM, earths orbital was.... sunlight reduced where when ?

different in the summer - reduced in NH in winter and snow would survive and accumulate

what is one of the most significant potential impacts of climate change?

diminished or unreliable fresh water supplies ,

there is increased competition among nations for...

diminishing natural resources, history says that this leads us to unrest and unstable regimes and that the possibilities of conflict are endless

what are natural stressors of the coral?

disease, predation, overgrowth by damaging algae

individual storms will most likely be associated with more severe?

downpours and more frequent flooding due to greater amounts of water vapor that a warmer atmosphere can hold

How will human consumption of fossil fuels and land use practices evolve over the next decades and centuries?

driving forces,, complex, involve population growth and per capita energy demand , closely linked to economic growth and technological advances bc they can both accelerate consumption and shift it to climate neutral sources

bc of the "faux pause", the IPCC .....

dropped the lower end of the ECS by half a degree in AR5 to 1.5 - 4.5C

why has the globe has warmed up slightly less than projected?

due to natural factors

substantial melting of ice sheets has begun..

earlier than expected and the upper end of the projected range has been revised upward in AR5

where has sea level not risen?

east canada due to earths slow rebound from the ice age

the impacts of la nina are opposite of

el nino

decreased water flow also threatens what?

energy resources bc steady water is needed for hydroelectric plants and are used in nuclear energy production.

he climate is now more El-Nino like, this means...

enhanced warming in the tropical eastern pacific

the rate of climate exceeds what about migration?

exceeds the natural migration capacities of most animals and plants for the higher emission scenarios

many of the regions most affected by climate change already find it hard to meet

existing food demand

over last 50 yrs,the artic summer time sea ice minimum has decreased at 9-14 % per decade, this does what? snow free period has increased by 5 to 6 days every decade doing what ?

exposes darker ocean, more warming - exposing dark ground that absorbs more sunlight

Sea level rise projections have ....

fallen in each successive IPCC assessment.

since 100my, co2 levels have been

falling

climate zone migration is ... across the flat area where there are less mountains

faster

we expect....

fewer frost days and longer heatwaves and more intense rainstorms

atmospheric co2 that is dissolved in rain forms what and does what?

forms carbonic acid and helps in rock weathering

in the last 2 my, earth has been swinging in an d out of ...... that are driven by subtle changes in the earths orbit around the sun . these changes are amplified in the ...... and the ....

glacial conditions - carbon cycle - climate system

el nino influences

global patterns, temp, and rain

what is considered the perfect storm?

global pop increase to 9 b and stresses of water, land, food

even if we peak ff emissions by 2020, what will happen?

global temps will still increase by an additional 1 C during this century or 2C since preindustrial times. Sea levels would rise by at least 0.5 m by 2100.

how has the globe done compared to the model projections ?

globe has warmed up slightly less than projected

things like frosts and heat waves are... the more warming occurs and the more pronounced changes there are. changes will vary regionally.

guaranteed

what climate impacts are already felt in europe?

heat waves, melting of mountain glaciers, shifting rain patterns, and observable changes in ecosystems

IPCC projects an increase in heat wave occurrence with....

high confidence

the past decade in E has been the .... on record in the last .... yrs.

hottest , 500

what is climate sensitivity expressed in terms of?

how much surface warming will occur in response to response to a doubling of CO2 from the preindustrial levels 280 ppm

during lgm, what covered where?

ice sheets covered much of Canada, Europe, North US, Scandinavia

the models project that the Arctic ocean will be ice freee when?

in sept. later this century under the 8.5 , 43% decline in sea ice cover for 2.6

where has the greatest warming been in NA?

in the northwest but in general everywhere is warm

smog is produced when emissions from........ react to produce pollutants

incomplete ff combustion

food production is expected to .... with modest warming in some regions , but .... with more warming

increase, decrease

what are the stressors of global warming ?

increased competition for natural resources, over taxed social services and infrastructure, conflict between nations

what could also diminish food supply?

increased forest fires and frequent disease and pest outbreaks

what was cooling in the LGM due too? - sea level was what?

increased reflectivity - 120 m less than today's sea level

uncertainty is... why?

inevitable bc we only have access to short climate record (150 yrs) , bc of this scientists turn to other, longer sources of information

Climate weathering Thermostat:

initial change, warmer climate, increased temp, precip, vegetation, increased chemical weathering, increased co2 removal by weathering, reduction of initial warming

each RCP is created using ...... which integrate climate effects, economic effects, land use, demographic, and energy considerations

integrated assessment models

warming is associated with the strengthening of the hydrological cycle and this includes increases in the precipitation ....

intensity and increases in the dry spell length for many regions

what do precise patterns of change depend on?

irregular, natural oscillations of the climate system

some changes can be sudden and .... when the system starts to pass tipping points.

irreversible

Hysteresis Loops?

is the dependence of the state of a system on its history, non-linear system

when changes exceed year to year variations,

it means that6 they are due to climate change and not bc of natural variability

who will suffer?

kids, old people, and urban poor will suffer disproportionately and those living in coastal areas

el nino alternates every few years with

la nina

warming could lead to what in the atmosphere?

leads to more atmospheric pollution by accelerating ozone production and promoting air stagnation

areas that are tropical and subtropical like India, sub-saharan Africa and tropical africa will experience ....

less food, especially key crops like major cereals

wildfires in NA?

likely to be more common bc of increase in drought and decrease in snow pack, theres earlier melt and increased fuel load from forests killed w pests

generally, climate change has short term positives and .... Food production is expected to increase with modest warming of, some regions in the US, Europe, and Canada can benefit from moderate warming of ..... due to increased crop and livestock productivity

long-term negatives, 1 to 2 C, 1 to 3C

warmth of water due to humans causes what?

loss of algae that makes it colorful and lets it live through a symbiotic relationship

lower stabilization levels can only be achieved with?

lower peak emissions

has west antarctica passed the tipping point?

maybe, the edge of the ice sheet has retreated away from the sea floor ridge that it was resting on before, the ice margin is now floating in deep water without friction for its base and the ice flow to ocean melting zone is accelerating

permafrost is .... this causes?

melting, bridge collapse, pipeline breakage, roadway degradation and contamination of surrounding environments.

Drought and decreased river runoff in southwestern north america will strain already water poor and resource-starved ..... and this will lead to increased migration to the US and stress already diplomatic relationships between these countries

mexico

how does a cloud forest ecosystem work?

mist from clouds is the primary source of moisture, - when the climate warms, trade winds rise up the mountain slope and condense at higher elevations so clouds can no longer intersect the forest floor and it gets drier and nights get warmer.

ECS of 2-3 C derived from the proxy data is similar to estimates using

modern record and geological data

even with the faux pause and the even though equilibrium climate sensitiviity is lower, the result would only be a

modest reduction in warming over this century, we would still cross the 2.0 C (3.6 F) threshold of warming

more evaporation, more rain leads to more vigorous cycling of water through the atmosphere ,,,,this causes

more frequent intenser rainfall events and flooding for many years.

warmer atmosphere will create ..... near the equator?

more rain

why is there a less rapid increase than before?

natural factors! - volcanic activity - series for la nina events which led to temporary surface cooling thats not taken into account in most simulations

when we have more than 3 C increase which will happen in 2100 in the business as usual scenario there will be .... impacts in all major agricultural regions

negative

Although some marine organisms may benefit from modest CO2 increases, ....... will prevail at higher CO2 levels

negative effects

positive feedback prevail over...

negative feedbacks

Increases in annual rainfall and runoff in regions is offset by the?

negative impacts of the larger precipitation variability like diminished water supply, decreased water quality and greater flood risk.

Advanced models dont account for what?

newly observed effects that could significantly accelerate the rate of melting

what is a frost?

nights where temps go below freezing

have models that were made to simulate both the carbon cycle and the climate included all of the previous feedbacks?

no

has mortality in the US increased due to hurricanes?

no bc of improved alarm systems and evacuation measures.

is warming spatially uniform? where is the greatest warming? larger warming where?

no, in NH and polar regions , over land than water 700-800 than 1642?

will climate change related health impacts be uniformly distributed across the world's population?

no, poor nations are more susceptible, issues w/ inadequate access to ac, infrastructure (like clean water, supplies , and electricity) and health care and emergency response facilities

the faux pause is.... by most models

not

if the sea level were to rise 6m, what would be submerged in the US?

nyc and boston

how often do changes in solar outputs occur

on a decadal to continental timescale .... not often

nearly 60% of widespread and common plant species and 35% of widespread and common animal species will see their habitat range shrink by over how much by 2080?

over 50%

where is the strongest warming?

over the arctic, warming minimum is south of Greenland

what are the bad human activities?

overfishing, pollutant runoff from land, careless snorkelers walking on delicate coral, fuel spills, and wastewater discharge from boats, oil spills

what about the Wilkins Ice Shelf?

parts of Antarctica's ice shelf are showing rapid disintegration including this one as a result of climate change

what are environmental refugees? how many are already displaced?

people fleeing their homelands for better conditions and climates , 25 million

below arctics upper layer of soil is .......... what is it?. why is it important?

permafrost, permanently frozen soil , - gives a solid base to support building foundation, road beds, and pipelines - it has sewage ponds and landfill leachate : water that collects contaminants as it trickles down through the waste.

populations of coastal or low-lying regions are exposed to temporary floods and ..... caused by rising sea level inundation?

permanent inundation

what are the processes that transfer carbon between reservoirs?

photosynthesis, respiration, ocean-atmosphere gas exchange and ocean mixing

examples of pests: how much of Canada will burn

pine bark needle that have expanded their range due to warming winters - a double of the area burned by 2100

The AR5 reported with high confidence that 20-30 % of ... will be subject to increased risk of extinction if the global temperature rise goes up 2 C above preindustrial levels.

plants and animals

what exactly causes decreased rain in the subtropics later?

poleward expansion of the Hadley cell

what else would also be submerged?

portions of Europe's "low countries" like Belgium & Netherlands

what is the earths response determined by?

positive and negative feedback loops , positive loops outweigh the negative ones , causes rapid co2 buildup and larger warming

what will happen to fish?

pretty variable, they'll increase or decrease depending on the location and species

how well did the IPCC projections do in predicting?

pretty well, its consistent w observations

what about weeds? mosquitoes?

ragweed is producing more pollen over a long season. - disease carrying mosquitoes typically confined to warmer climates are spreading into the extratopics, carryinginfectious diseases like dengue and West Nile Virus, Malaria could also expand

there will be increases in the frequency of intense

rain events and flooding due to more vigorous water cycle that is associated with more moisture in a warmer atmosphere

methane that has been trapped in the permafrost for millennia is now being ... - by 2100, the northern hemisphere permafrost reduction will reduce ....% based on RCP 2.6 and ... % for 8.5 releasing upto 250 B tons of carbon as ch4 or co2

released and increasing warming , 37%, 81%

where have CO2 actually tracked in the projections?

right in the center of the projected range

What exactly poses threats to coastal and low-lying regions?

rising sea level, increasing tropical cyclone destruction, increasing coastal erosion, and larger wave heights

increased temperature and rainfall stimulate chemical weathering of

rock

climate change appears to be driving migrations from the dry.... to west africa and exodus from parts of India, China, Central and South America. will industrialized countries be immune?

sahel, no

aggressive CO2 reduction through RCP 2.6 could

save hundreds of thousands of premature by O3 pollution annually

what threatens the people, infrastructure and economy of North America

sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and wildfires

more than 15% of the world's population depends on the seasonal ...

seasonal melt of high elevation snow and ice for freshwater , so the melting of ice and ice caps represents a serious threat.

as climates change, ecosystems ?

shift

in these regions, warming will result in longer growing seasons, favorable shifts in rain, and higher CO2 levels which give...

short-term benefit for plant growth

then melting of Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is ...

significant but uncertainties remain.

with 1m of sea level rise, which will happen by end of century, the losses of land and GDP are

sizable

the past climate changes were slower than the projected future ones were going to have, this can cause ?

species extinction if they cannot adapt or migrate fast enough

the arctic summertime sea ice cover during the first half of the 20th century was ... then .... for decades and .... in 2007. models did not project this to occur for several decades.

stable, declined, fell

By other measuremnets like increasing heat content of oceans and accelerating Arctic Sea ice loss, climate change and global warming are

still happening and ahead of schedule

ex of natural proxy data:

sunspots, from the early 19th century through today - more sunspots , brighter sun,,,,, less: dimmer sun

what will be necessary to decrease our vulnerability to future changes ?

sustainable development

loss of ballast reduces the ocean's ability to

take up CO2

ice cores show that co2 fluctuations and ..... go hand in hand for at least the last 650,000 years , models only simulate observed cooling during ..... when co2 is low

temp , glacials

tropical regions will suffer more than ... regions

temperate

decreased summer precipitation and increased evaporation due to surface temps leads to greater ....

tendency for drought in many regions

how much will annual costs associated with weather related damage be ?

tens of billions of dollars

what does equilibrium climate sensitivity take into account?

that the full amount of warming in response to an increase in GHGs may not be realized for many decades due to delayed ocean warming.

what can the last lgm tell us about tomorrows climate?

that there are 3 reasons for lgm cooling

what do the ice sheet models suggest about greenland?

that warming may lead to the eventual irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet, this is tied to the increase of the air temp around Greenland

even RCP 2.6 has only a 50/50 chance of avoiding....

the 2.0 C warming threshold relative to preindustrial times

what is climate sensitivity?

the amount of warming that we expect to occur when there is a change in the factors that control climate ex: increase the GHGs

best estimate: 3.0 C (5.4F)

the earth will eventually by 5.4 F if co2 levels reach . 560 ppm. This is expected to happen midway through the 21st century although the warming may not be fully realized until at least 2100.

what is the "faux pause"?

the fact that temps haven't increased rapidly over the past decade as they did in previous decades - led to a false belief that there has been a pause in global warming

if the climate warms too much....

the ice sheet melting will become unstoppable, only way to restore them is if temperatures drop substantially

the 2012 minimum sea ice extent shouldn't have hit till.....

the latter half of this century, our ice is melting way too fast.

sea ice extent:

the ocean area w sea ice concentration of at least 15%

what is the second sea ice extent minimum?

the one in 2020

why are there some changes in Europe?

the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which favors a strong, northerly jet over Europe

the lower the stabilization target, the sooner what must occur to stabilize CO2 at 550 ppm by 2040 or 750 ppm by 2080

the sooner peak emissions must occur

what will negatively impact fish?

the weakening of the ocean conveyer belt in the north Atlantic called the Thermohaline circulation

the impact of ff on war ?

there becomes a reliance on ff which threatens the security of many developed countries and has them at the mercy of volatile regimes.

insects and rodents that carry disease range more widely as climate barriers are lifted. Ex: ?

there's already proof that vectors like ticks are spreading to higher latitudes and altitudes in Canada and Sweden

how are wetlands good for animals?

they are biologically diverse and give homes to endangered species and refuge to migrating birds. - really good for recreation too.

What's predicted to happen to the jet streams?

they are supposed to shift poleward which causes increased winter rain in polar and subpolar regions and decreased summer precipitation in many midlatitude areas

denmark did what?

they assert that the geologic features that trap petrol in the arctic is an extension of their country.

volcanoes have a significant but short-lived impact ...

they can only drive long-term climate change when their magnitude and frequency are sustained from one century to the next

how do scientists make projections about sea level rise?

they rely on past relationships between global temperatures and rates of sea level rise and global temperature projections for this century

How do wetlands act as filters?

they remove sediment contamination like iron, and acidity from mine runoff and nitrogen from farm fertilizers before the water enters the drinking and irrigation water.

what do mpa's do? Can they protect coral from global warm or acidification bc of CO2?

they restrict human activity for a conservative purpose and protect natural or cultural areas. - no

whats another way to study climate sensitivity?

to study the responses to changes in natural factors governing climate in previous centuries - use of proxy data and estimate how the NH temp has varied during the past centuries - we can estimate how the natural factors have varied over this timeframe and compare that to today

give one pollutant and explain?

tropospheric ozone; a lung irritant that damages crops, building, forests.

critics often accuse the IPCC of overstating the effects of climate change. what's the truth? give example?

truth is that the claim is the opposite - the observations of the decrease in ice is larger than the model projections

certain types of climate models are .... done for what?

tuned to different climate sensitivities to determine which of these sensitivities values best matches the observed temperature changes - done for surface temps and ocean temps.

what does weathering do to rocks?

turns rocks into soil and salts that go into rivers, this is associated with the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to other forms of dissolved carbon

human ghgs have ramped up significantly over the past ..

two centuries

sea level rise and other factors will likely make currently inhabited regions ...... to humans therefore increasing ..... for habitable land

uninhabitable competition

what could ensue when nations exceed their capacity to adapt to climate change?

violence and destabilization leading to unprecedented levels of conflict between and within nations

other natural proxy things:

volcanic eruptions: determined by aerosol deposits they leave behind in ice cores

coral reefs are the most.... marine ecosystem with little scope for adaptation

vulnerable

nature has its limits and,,,,

we are starting to push-past them

to prevent atmospheric CO2 levels from exceeding 450 ppm we must do what?

we must peak fossil fuels by 2020

the mid range fossil fuel emissions scenario RCP 6.0 is

well beyond the range of temperature changes ever seen in the past century

what is the most unstable part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

west ant.

the greatest increase in heat waves is expected to occur where?

western US, North America, and the Middle East where feedback loops are associated with decreased soil moisture and may intensify summer warmth

what is the condition for california during el nino

wett

expanded patterns fo drought and conditions unfavorable conditions for agriculture and farming will likely change ...

what constitutes desirable land

co2 fertilization

when theres alot of co2 and plants take it in

what qualifies as a heat wave?

when very hot temperatures are sustained over a number of days and become more intense and more frequent and longer lasting

although many regions are expected to become drier, scientists predict that events in these regions..

will become more intense like individual rain/snow events will become more intense even though longer spells will separate them.

whats projected for Europe w/ warming

winter flooding, frequency and intensity of flash floods

what would crossing the 2.0 C threshold of warming do

would have devastating consequences for society in our environment

could human intervention be a powerful enough force to cause mass extinction of animals and other living organisms?

yes

do changing precipitation patterns outweigh the benefits?

yes

in some regions, the earths slow rebound from the last ice age has largely offset the sea level rise from global warming?

yes

globally, is water demand likely to escalate significantly due to population growth?

yes, fresh water resources are becoming more scarce bc of climate change

is there uncertainty with ENSO ?

yes, precise regional climate change projections are hampered by uncertainties in how some global winds and ocean currents change

could socioeconomic development partially or completely offset the negative effects on food supply?

yes, the projection of undernourished people by 2080 could be from 100 M to an increase of 1.3 B. (currently 820 mill)

is it hard to determine which factors are responsible for the tipping point of the environmental system

yes.