MMGT201 Exam2 forecasting

79

a simple smoothing model with alpha=10 is equivalent to:

104

big bagel co.

.2

big bagel has been using simple exponential smoothing

.71

big bagel has been using the same forecasting method

145

compute the MSE for the following set of data:

16

for the following data, what is the mean absolute percent error?

-1.2

for the following data, what is the tracking signal?

77

forecast for oct.19

11

given the following data, compute MAD

naive 2

given the following quarterly sales of big bagel

158, 286

suppose you were given the following information

282

the following table is part of a simple exponential smoothing forecast

adjustments need to be made

the judgement method of forecasting is useful when:

all of the above

the performance of a forecasting model can be measured by:

41

using the same data, what is the MAD?

127

using the simple exponential model with alpha=.2

competitors pricing actions

which of the following factors affecting the demand for goods and services is an EXTERNAL factor?

expansion or contracting of geographical market target areas

which of the following factors affecting the demand for goods and services is an INTERNAL factor?

assigns weights/seasonality

which of the following is NOT true of an n-period simple moving average

smaller/tracking signal

which of the following is true about MAD?

running sum of the forecast errors

which of the following is used to measure bias in a forecast?

in the short term managers are typically interested in forecasts of total sales

which of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

you should use the simple moving average method

which of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

judgement methods are designed for situations where historical data are lacking

which of the following statements about forecasting is TRUE?

the trend over an extended period of time always increases

which of the following statements about the patterns of a demand series is FALSE?

forecast accuracy

which of the following statements concerning general guidelines for forecasting is FALSE?

all of the above are true (delphi)

which of the following statements is true?

positive tracking signal/consistently below

if the RSFE for sales turns up a large positive number, then:

931

in the following exponential smoothing with trend model alpha=.3