Module 1

Groupthink

"A mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members' strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action." "Groupthink refers to a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment that results from in-group pressures." - Irving Janis

Seven Types of Cognitive Bias

1. Bandwagon Effect—tendency to believe something because many others believe it. 2. Clustering Illusion—tendency to overvalue small runs, streaks, or clusters in large data sets. 3. Confirmation Bias—tendency to overvalue data supporting initial assumptions or expectations, and undervalue that which contradict. 4. Framing Effect—tendency to draw different conclusions from the same data if it is presented differently 5. Illusory Correlation—belief that two events are related when they might not be. 6. Insensitivity to Sample Size—tendency to underestimate the variation in small data samples 7. Mirror Imaging—assumption that others see events and react to them just as we do.

Cognitive Bias

A mental error that is consistent and predictable regardless of cultural differences. Much like an optical illusion, they remain compelling even when we know they exist.

Natural Language Processing (NLP)

A process that applies artificial intelligence, computational linguistics, and computer science in an attempt to enable computers to understand human languages.

Social Network Analysis (SNA)

A process that applies graph and network theory to analyze the structures of social networks. Treating individuals or groups as nodes and analyzing the network of connections formed among them can reveal relationship dynamics. For example, the National Security Agency (NSA) uses SNA to analyze terrorist cells, determining the centrality of particular individuals to their network, and identify them as high-value targets (HVT).

Perception

A process that links people to their environment and is critical to accurate understanding of the world around us.

What is the most important factor in assuring the overall quality of intelligence analysis?

A well-framed intelligence question

Creative Thinking & Three Types of Thinking

An ability, an attitude, and a process. • Ability: ability to imagine or invent something new. • Attitude: attitude to accept change and newness. Willingness to play with ideas and possibilities, and the flexibility of outlook. • Process: creative people work hard to continually improve ideas and solutions by making gradual alterations and refinements to their works.

Patterns

An order our minds impose on an overly complicated world in order to make sense of it

Bias

An unconscious belief that conditions, governs, and compels our behavior. There are many types that can include cultural, organizational, religious, political and so forth. We seek evidence that supports our beliefs and devalue information that does not.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a sub-discipline of cognitive science that integrates with other disciplines such as computer science and engineering with the purpose of producing machines capable of replicating human intelligence and human senses

Mirror Imaging

Assuming that other states or individuals will act just the way a particular country or person does

Provide Explanation

Being able to present in a cogent and coherent way the results of one's reasoning. This means to be able to give someone a full look at the big picture: To state and to justify that reasoning in terms of the evidential, conceptual, methodological, criteriological, and contextual considerations upon which one's results were based; and to present one's reasoning in the form of cogent arguments.

Intellectual Standards for Analyzing Problems

Clarity Accuracy Precision Relevance Depth Breadth Logic Significance Fairness

What is a Structured Analytic Technique (SAT)?

Critical and creative thinking are supported in intelligence analysis by the application of methods known as SATs and an understanding of analytic reasoning and the role of biases. There are several critical skills associated with this core research and analysis phase of the process, one being the application of SATs.

Three Types of Logical Reasoning

Deductive (Theory Based), Inductive (Observation Based) & Abductive Reasoning

Scientific Reasoning

Drawing casual inferences using facts, premises, and logic

Market Reasoning

Drawing conclusions from a structured consensus of persons

Comparative Reasoning

Drawing conclusions from examples, cases, or analogies

Empirical Reasoning

Drawing conclusions from personal interaction with real evidence

Authoritative Reasoning

Drawing inferences from expert testimony or strong belief

Big Data

Exceptionally large data collections and the process of extracting value from them

Levels of Confidence

High: - Almost Certain 95-99% (highly corroborated, virtually no intelligence gaps) - Very Likely 80-95% (well corroborated, minimal assumptions, no significant intelligence gaps) Moderate: - Likely 55-80% (Probable, majority of corroborated info from reliable sources, more strong than weak inferences) - Roughly Even Chance 45-55% (Partially corroborated info from good sources, mix of strong and weak inferences) Low: - Unlikely 20-45% (improbable, limited corroborated information, some assumptions, more weak than strong inferences, some intelligence gaps exist)

High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

Highlights a seemingly unlikely event that would have major policy consequences if it happened. A contrarian technique that sensitizes analysts to the potential impact of seemingly low probability events that would have major repercussions on US interests. In addition, an examination of the "unthinkable" allows analysts to develop signposts that may provide early warning of a shift in the situation

Which Intelligence Community Directives (ICD's) prescribe standards and principles for dissemination and require annual assessments for compliance.

ICD 203, 206 & 208

Status Quo Reasoning

Making immediate judgments and inferences

What are some mental blocks to creative thinking?

Prejudice, functional fixation, learned helplessness, and psychological blocks

What are the purpose and benefits for the SAT: Alternative Futures?

Purpose: Alternative futures are used when a situation is too complex or the situation outcome is too uncertain to trust a single outcome assessment. Benefits: Alternative futures analysis is extremely useful in highly ambiguous situations, when analysts confront not only a lot of "known unknowns" but also "unknown unknowns."

What are the purpose and benefits for the SAT: Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH)?

Purpose: Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) ensures all information and arguments are evaluated and given equal treatment when considering hypotheses. Benefits: • Ensure that all the information and argumentation is evaluated and given equal treatment or weight when considering each hypothesis. • Prevents the analyst from premature closure on a particular explanation or hypothesis • Protects the analyst against innate tendencies to ignore or discount information that does not fit comfortably with the preferred explanation at the time

What are the purpose and benefits for the SAT: Argument Mapping?

Purpose: Argument Mapping is used to test a single hypothesis through logical reasoning. The process starts with a single hypothesis or tentative analytic judgement and then uses a box-and-arrow diagram to visually lay out the argument with the evidence both for and against the hypothesis or analytic judgement. Benefits: An Argument Map makes it easier for both analysts and recipients of the analysis to evaluate the soundness of any conclusion. It helps clarify and organize one's thinking by showing the logical relationship between the various thoughts, both pro and con.

What are the purpose and benefits for the SAT: Adversary Intent Matrix (AIM)?

Purpose: The Adversary Intent Matrix analyzes options that a decision-maker would likely consider in response to a certain situation. Analysis is done from the point of view of the decision-maker. Benefits: Utility of this method depends on how well the analyst: • Knows the decision-maker. • What options the decision-maker would likely consider.

Six Forms of Reasoning

Status Quo, Authoritative, Comparative, Empirical, Scientific, and Market

Machine Learning

The human ability to learn and make decisions based on past experience—knowledge—is another one of the intelligent capabilities AI seeks to replicate in machines One of the main advantages of machine learning is the ability to quickly integrate and manipulate massive amounts of data which is beyond the aptitude of any single human expert

Spatial Analysis

The process of using location information to organize data spatially and identify the resultant patterns and relationships. Data from multiple intelligence sources are mapped into the spatial domain, typically by applying metadata that identifies the source event's time and location. This data can then be projected onto a map and scrolled in time for analyst visualization

Provide Assessments

To assess the credibility of statements or other representations which are accounts or descriptions of a person's perception, experience, situation, judgment, belief, or opinion; and to assess the logical strength of the actual or intended inferential relationships among statements, descriptions, questions or other forms of representation.

Devil's Advocacy

Used to challenge an analytic consensus or a key assumption regarding a critically important intelligence question. On those issues that one cannot afford to get wrong, Devil's Advocacy can provide further confidence that the current analytic line will hold up to close scrutiny.

Big Data Sources and Types

• Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) - satellite imagery, geodesy data, GPS waypoints, etc. • Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) - intercepted communications, emissions, and signals. • Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT) - scientific measurements, chemical analysis, etc. • Human Intelligence (HUMINT) - clandestine and covert collection of documents, knowledge, etc. • Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) - mass media, professional and academic publications, etc.

Factors of Perception

• Past experience. • Education. • Cultural values. • Role requirements. • Organizational norms. We tend to perceive what we expect.

The 5 V's of Big Data

• Volume: the amount of raw data produced and stored. • Velocity: the speed at which data is produced and changed. • Variety: the number of different types and sources of data. • Value: how relevant or appropriate the data is to a particular question. • Veracity: the trustworthiness, quality, timeliness, etc of data.