OPMA CHP 3
Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?
(MAD) Mean Absolute Deviation
Given a prior forecast demand value of 1,100, a related actual demand value of 1,000, and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.3, what is the exponential smoothing forecast value?
1,030
A company wants to generate a forecast for unit demand for year 2014 using exponential smoothing. The actual demand in year 2013 was 120. The forecast demand in year 2013 was 110. Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1, which of the following is the resulting year 2014 forecast value?
111
3A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average. If the company uses two prior yearly sales values (i.e., year 2012 = 110 and year 2013 = 130), and we want to weight year 2012 at 10% and year 2013 at 90%, which of the following is the WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE forecast for year 2014?
128A
A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values (i.e., year 2011 = 130, year 2012 = 110, and year 2013 =160), which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2014?
133
A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses four prior yearly sales values (i.e., year 2010 = 100, year 2011 = 120, year 2012 = 140, and year 2013 = 210), which of the following is the SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE forecast for year 2014?
142
A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values (i.e., year 2011 = 160, year 2012 = 140 and year 2013 = 170), and we want to weight year 2011 at 30%, year 2012 at 30% and year 2013 at 40%, which of the following is the weighted moving average forecast for year 2014?
158
In business forecasting, what is usually considered a long-term time period
2 years or longer
A company has actual unit demand for four consecutive years of 100, 105, 135, and 150. The respective forecasts were 120 for all four years. Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from this data?
20
Given a prior Forecast Demand Value of 230, a related Actual Demand Value of 250, and a smoothing constant ALPHA of 0.1, what is the EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECAST value for the following period?
232
In business forecasting, what is usually considered a medium-term time period?
3 months to 2 years
A company has actual unit demand for three consecutive years of 124, 126, and 135. The respective forecasts for the same three years are 120, 120, and 130. Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from this data?
5
If a firm produced a standard item with relatively stable demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be in which of the following ranges?
5% to 10%
As a consultant you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for year 2014 using EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. The actual demand in year forecast demand in year 2013 was 960. Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.3, which of the following is the resulting year 2014 2013 was 750. The forecast value?
897
A company has calculated its running sum of forecast errors to be 500 and its mean absolute deviation is exactly 35. Which of the following is the company's tracking signal?
About 14.3
In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken into several components. Which of the following is considered a component of demand?
Autocorrelation
In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken into several components. Which of the following is considered a component of demand?
Cyclical elements
*Which of the following is a possible source of bias error in forecasting?
Failing to include the right variables
Which of the following is a possible source of BIAS ERROR in forecasting?
Failing to include the right variables
*Which of the following is not one of the basic types of forecasting?
Force field analysis
In business forecasting, what is usually considered a short-term time period?
Less than 3 months
Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique
Linear regression
In general, which forecasting time frame is best to detect GENERAL TRENDS?
Long range forecasts
In general, which forecasting time frame is best to detect general trends
Long range forecasts
Which of the following are used to describe the DEGREE OF ERROR?
Mean absolute deviation
In general, which forecasting time frame best identifies seasonal effects?
Medium term forecasts
Which of the following considerations is NOT a factor in deciding which forecasting model a firm should choose?
Product
In general, which forecasting time frame compensates most effectively for RANDOM VARIATION and SHORT TERM changes?
Short-term forecasts
Which of the following forecasting methods can be used for SHORT-TERM forecasting?
Simple exponential smoothing
Which of the following forecasting methods can be used for short-term forecasting?
Simple exponential smoothing
Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique
Simple moving average
A company has a MAD of 10. Its wants to have a 99.7 percent control limits on its forecasting system. It's most recent tracking signal value is 3.1. What can the company conclude from this information?
The forecasting model is operating acceptably
If a firm produced a product that was experiencing growth in demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be which of the following?
The more rapid the growth, the HIGHER the percentage
The exponential smoothing method requires which of the following data to forecast the future?
The most recent forecast
*In time series data depicting demand which of the following is NOT considered a component of demand variation?
Variance
Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?
Weighted moving average