POLI Final

Social Effects (Resource Curse)

(Conflict) -Oil-producing states make up a growing fraction of the world's conflict-ridden countries -Breeds conflict between countries, but especially within them

Costs of Civil War

(Many of these persist after the conflict ends) -Slower growth, refugees and IDPs, disease -Stronger military and budget (post government afraid of another war, keep military strong) -Costs materializing after the war -Deterioration in political rights & freedoms (War lords deceive about motives, intentions, abilities) -Deterioration in political institutions

Causes of the Revolution

(Modernization; Huntington) Educated, urban, organized civil society make demands on the system -> regime instability

Outcomes of revolution

-(Successful) Fundamental change in social, economic, and/or political structure -Rarely successful (terminated or different outcome) -Rarely democratic

Bad institutions vs. bad governance

-Bad institutions encourage bad governance and bad governance leads to bad institutions -Trap for similar reasons (reinforcing)

Second wave of democracy (Huntington)

-Began with the Allied victory in WWII, peaking in 1962 -36 democracies in the world (Reverse Wave) -Rise in military dictatorships in the 1960s and 1970s -Democracies dropped to 30

Unearned income (Manifestations)

-Breaks taxation-representation link with citizens -Less accountability: corruption, weaken democracy (support autocracy), consolidate power of entrenched elites and regime supporters

Decay of the existing regime

-Can come from defeats in war, debt, economic decline, an arms race (Soviet Union) -Decline in legitimacy due to corruption, defeat in war, or foreign influence (Cuba)

Low income and civil war

-Civil war is more likely to break out in low-income countries -risk that a bottom billion society falls into civil war in 5-year period =1 in 6 -Chance of civil war becoming a trap (repeated civil war, no development) is much higher for low-income countries -Lower income is correlated with longer conflict

Collier

-Democracy undermines the ability to harness resource surpluses: underinvest and invest poorly -Bribery alter how democratic electoral competition is conducted -Resource rents weaken democratic political restraints on how power is used(Reduce the need to tax; gets rid of checks and balances) -Resource-rich democracies that are highly-developed and have political restraints on power can be economically successful

Natural resources and civil war

-Dependence upon natural resource exports increases the risk of civil war breaking out -If important export products become more valuable during the war, the war is more likely to last longer

Challenges with being landlocked

-Difficult to access global markets -Higher transport costs; --The average landlocked country pays up to 50% more in transportation costs than the average coastal nation -Depends on neighbors spending -poor access to coast, therefore difficult to profit from goods requiring significant transport -Local companies at a disadvantage in accessing imported goods needed and getting their gods to foreign markets.

First wave of democracy (Huntington)

-Early 1800s -Suffrage granted in many countries, but often just to white males -29 democracies in the world, at its peak

Conflict trigger (Manifestation)

-Economic instability: booms and busts from volatile prices -Funds insurgents: steal and sell on the black market or extort money from oil companies -Encourages separatism and rebellion: high levels of corruption, extortion, poor governance, patronage politics generates grievances and aggravates ethnic grievances

Costs if civil war on neighboring countries

-Economic spillovers (Refugee burden; Arms race; Disruption of trade (especially for landlocked); Negative effect with international investors) -Social spillovers (Disease (accommodating refugees); Civil war spillover (similar ethnic tension); Destabilizing refugee flows)

Economic development and democratization

-Educated, entrepreneurial middle class, increases demand for democracy -Urbanization and improvements in technology and infrastructure -Facilitates communication and political recruitment -Increases in wealth, education, communication, and equality are associated with a more moderate lower and upper class, and a larger middle class

Top down path to democracy

-Elite-led transition -Executive (President, Prime Minister) -Elites below the executive (coup -> democratization)

China case study

-Experienced significant economic development (growth, reduction of poverty) -Yet to experience significant political development (still authoritarian, not free, lack political rights and civil liberties)

Encourage remittances (Land lock Strategy)

-Few opportunities for growth -> more emigration (potential for brain drain) -Educate people -Facilitate the finding of jobs in higher-income countries -Encourage emigrant workers to remit part of their incomes -Depends on banking systems and exchange rates -Encourage emigrants to invest in the country E.g. homes for family and retirement

Democratic transition

-First significant move toward democracy -Single and double turnover/alternation of power -Possible to successfully transition and maintain a democracy without turnover

Being Landlocked (Development Trap)

-Geography poses severe constraints on economic development -does not necessarily condemn a country to underdevelopment

political effects (resource curse)

-Global pattern: natural resource surplus reduces likelihood that country is democratic -Some trends reducing the strength of this pattern: -Democracies spreading to oil economies: explicit agenda of the U.S., plus general democratization -Oil spreading to democracies: U.S. attempt to broaden sources beyond Middle East (Africa, Southeast Asia), plus general discovery

What is bad governance?

-High corruption -Lack of transparency -Incompetent leadership

Electoral systems

-How elections are conducted: when elections occur, how ballots are marked and counted, how votes are translated into seats -Vary widely across countries

Acknowledge the role of colonialism (Acemoglu & Robinson)

-Impacted the type of institutions implemented in various countries and regions -Reinforcing nature of these institutions

Strategies to Solve Landlock

-Improve coastal access (ex. better roads for transport; requires approval from neighbor) -Increase neighborhood growth spillover (lower trade barriers) -Try to attract foreign aid and investment (business, good governance) -Become financial haven for region -don't be air-locked or e-locked (access to air transport and telecommunications) -Improve rural development (lack of rapid industrialization leaves population largely rural)

Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)

-In-house analysts, country experts (3,000), country coordinators, regional managers, research assistants -Multidimensional (variety of components of democracy) and disaggregated (break down democracy into its components) data set measuring democracy

Institutions are key (Acemoglu & Robinson)

-Inclusive institutions that protect individual rights and encourage investment -> wealth -Extractive and exclusive institutions discourage investment and innovation -> increase inequality and fail to decrease poverty

Geography (Civil War)

-Large countries with populations dispersed around the edges are more at risk of civil war breaking out (densely populated, smaller countries are less at risk) -Countries with mountainous terrain are more at risk of war than flat areas.

Collier (Coups)

-Low income increases risk -Low growth increases risk -The existence of one majority ethnic group and other significant ethnic groups increases risk -Natural resource dependency does not seem to matter (no financing needed)

Three main causal factors of civil war

-Low-income -Low economic growth -Dependence on natural resource exports -points to geographical factors

Explanations for underdevelopment

-Macro-historical (Diamond) -Colonialism and its legacies -Modernization theory -Dependency and world systems theories

Environment for resource prospecting (Landlock)

-Might have undiscovered valuable natural resources -Risks perceived by resource extraction companies: poor governance of the resource revenues *Issue* companies attracted to risky environments are not concerned about poor governance have no interest in avoiding the resource trap

Determinants of sustained momentum

-More likely if the country has a higher income -More likely with larger and educated population -Less likely if leader has been in office a long time -Less likely if country experienced a favorable shift in its terms of trade -Less likely with recent civil war

Countries that suffer large scale violence repeatedly are..

-More than twice as likely to be malnourished -three times as likely to miss primary school -Almost twice as likely to die in infancy as people in other developing countries -More vulnerable to economic shocks

Trade Shocks

-Natural resource revenues are volatile, making the economy vulnerable -Increasing public spending during booms; difficult to reduce during crashes -> economic crises

Models for development

-Neoliberalism -ISI -Export-led growth and other alternative paths

Challenges of successful revolution

-Participation/support -Dangerous -Motives and actions of leader

Why is the poverty trap often considered a conflict trap?

-Peaceful countries are managing to escape poverty -Poverty is concentrated in countries riven by civil war, ethnic conflict, and organized crime

Revolution

-Replace old powers of authority with a new social group or class (social/economic) -Replace existing regime (political) -More radical than insurrections or revolts, coups, and wars of independence -Change is not common

Dutch disease (post-colonial African states, Venezuela, Russia)

-Resource exports cause rise in currency value against other currencies -Weakens trade competitiveness -Encourages dependence on natural resource, while manufactured and service exports might have been best for development

Economic costs during civil war

-Resources diverted from productive activities to the war effort (double loss) (previous resource contribution; loss of facilities/roads) -Reduces growth by 2.3 percent per year, on average -After a typical civil war of 7 years duration, incomes around 15% lower than if the war had not happened

Bottom up path to democracy

-Revolution from below (the masses) -Often requires support from elites -Leadership from early on -Support later in the transition

First reverse wave

-Rise of fascism and communism between WWI and WWII (e.g. Soviet Union) -Democracies dropped to 12

Third Wave of democracy (Huntington)

-Started in the 1970s and accelerated through the 1990s -Largest wave -Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America -Around 100 democracies at its peak Possibly currently in reverse wave.

Horizontal accountability

-State power is checked by itself -Different branches of government (e.g. executive, legislative, judicial) have independent power -Protects against domineering executive

Vertical accountability

-State power is checked by the people (voting and other forms of political engagement Civil liberties: free speech, press, association, petition; Civil society) -Ensures citizens have a voice

Economic Effects of Resource Curse

-Surplus from natural resource exports significantly reduces growth -Focus on resource wealth and forget about other activities -Wealthy states dependent on resource wealth are rare; still unequal (Saudi Arabia) -Middle-income status is common: cannot harness the wealth for better economic growth -resource wealth dominates the small economy

Causes of third wave of democracy

-Winding down of the Cold War: waning of Soviet Union influence, spread of democratic ideals -Economic growth -> rising middle class -> pressure for democratic governance -Changes in Catholic Church: emphasizing individual rights and opposition to authoritarian rule -Snowball effect -Western efforts to spread democracy

Collier research findings

-Without natural resource surpluses, democracies outgrow autocracies -With large natural resource surpluses, autocracies outgrow democracies (only true if autocracies are ethnically homogenous; diversity narrows autocrat's support, providing stronger incentive to sacrifice growth for redistribution)

Collier argument bad governance

-good governance can help a country realize its opportunities, but it cannot generate opportunities where none exist -bad governance and bad policy can potentially ruin the most promising prospects

Soviet Union

A Communist nation, consisting of Russia and 14 other states, that existed from 1922 to 1991.

Totalitarianism

A form of government in which the ruler is an absolute dictator (not restricted by a constitution or laws or opposition etc.)

Autocracy

A system of government in which the power to rule is in the hands of a single individual

Checks and Balances

A system that allows each branch of government to limit the powers of the other branches in order to prevent abuse of power

Significant problems with being landlocked

Average level of development in landlocked developing countries is 20% lower than in the average coastal developing country

Some governments get it wrong on purpose (Acemoglu & Robinson)

Bad institutions can benefit leaders: wealth (looting) and power

spillover effect

Countries benefit from the growth of their neighbors

What is democratization?

Dynamic, ongoing process of increasing the quality and/or stability of democracy

Social Costs During Civil War

Early 20th century = 90% of armed conflict victims were soldiers, 1990's = 90% civilian Refugees and internally-displaced people -Deaths from active combat -Deaths from disease (difficult to stay healthy due to changing living conditions; less money for public health)

Types of democracy based on components

Electoral, liberal, participatory, majoritarian

Are coups considered traps?

Experiencing a coup makes a country more likely to have more coups

Karl Marx

Father of Communism

Civil War as Development Trap

Growth reduces risk of war, raises income level, diversify the economy, lessening resource dependency. -staying low income, natural resource dependent state, war is more likely (often repeated), makes it harder to develop. About ½ of all civil wars are post-conflict relapses -post-conflict country has around a 50/50 chance of making it through first decade in peace -Civil wars often continue because they are beneficial to certain participants, or because of the risks/costs involved in peace deals

Global Costs of Civil War

Hard drugs (production areas cease to be under government control; 95% of the global production of opium is in civil war countries) -Distribution and storage channels rely on lawlessness -Disease -International terrorism Lawless areas not under government control = safe area for terrorists

Civil War

Internal (domestic) conflict, both sides are domestic, lots of deaths on both sides

Why is it difficult to get out of the conflict trap?

It is possible. Difficult because it requires development, and development is hindered by conflict.

How is geography related to civil war?

Large areas with fewer people and more mountainous terrain provide rebel groups more places to form and to hide

location of majority of landlocked countries

Largely an African problem -30% of Africa's population lives in landlocked countries -Outside Africa, only 1% of the population lives in countries that are both landlocked and resource-scarce Another effect of the borders -Worse infrastructure in African coastal countries than in European coastal countries

Acemoglu & Robinson (Why Nations Fail)

Neither culture nor geography can explain development gaps between countries/regions institutions are key; some governments get it wrong on purpose; Acknowledge the role of colonialism

Negotiated path to democracy

Pact between the government and the masses

Why is low income correlated with civil war?

Participation in civil war conflict provides chance of riches, glory, job, something to do

What is bad economic policy?

Policies that hinder development

Executive branch

Presidential, Parliamentary

Common Development Traps

Resource Curse, Being landlocked, ethnicity and conflict, bad governance

Reverse waves of democratization (Huntington)

Revival of authoritarianism

Challenges of Democratization

Revolutions, authoritarian tendencies, violence, war, terrorism, institutions

Low growth and civil war

Slow growth makes a country more prone to break out of civil war (even more likely in economic decline)

Huntington's "waves of democracy"

Surge of democracy in history

Bad governance trap

The growth rate of a country with both bad governance and bad policies is likely to be in absolute decline; reduced growth of neighbors, as well

Development trap

Traps countries in poverty, or in a state of underdevelopment

Economic difficulties translate into poor social development outcomes

True

Landlocked countries depend on neighbors for growth

True

Resource curse as paradoxical

Valuable natural resources in the context of poverty

Coups

a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government -Not as disastrous for society as civil wars

ISI (Import substitution industrialization)

a trade and economic policy which advocates replacing foreign imports with domestic production

Freedom House

an organization that studies democracies around the world and ranks them on a 1-7 scale

subjective

based on or influenced by personal feelings, tastes, or opinions

democratic breakdown

democracy can move backwards

Economic development strengthens

democratic consolidation/stability (does not affect transition)

Forms of democracy

direct and representative

Self-interest (bad governance)

elites benefit through wealth, power

Other forms of conflict traps?

organized crime, high murder rates, low-intensity conflicts (More people killed by gangs in Guatemala than during civil war)

Democratic consolidation

process by which a new democracy matures, in a way that means it is unlikely to revert to authoritarianism without an external shock.

Collier investigates (civil war)

relationship between civil war and various socioeconomic factors -Break out of civil war -Length of civil war

Technical issues (bad governance)

shortage of people with the requisite knowledge (those who have it, often leave, are overwhelmed by challenges, or feel threatened or in danger)

Paradoxical

something that appears false or contradictory but is actually correct

Bad governance and bad policies can be persistent through

technical issues, self-interest

Resource Curse

the difficulties faced by resource-rich developing countries, including dependence on exporting one or a few commodities whose prices fluctuate, as well as potentials for corruption and inequality