Poli. Sci. :Public Opinion

What are some early efforts to measure public opinion:

Literary digest, fatal flaws in 1936 survey

Arguments regarding public opinion: Polling can be bad:

Public opinion is often inconsistent; majority rule is not really desirable. doesn't mean officials should do it. ; importance of protecting minority positions

What is public opinion?

What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time; what the gov. thinks of an issue. ex. gun control or the aggregation of people's views about issues, situations, and public figures

What are some recent efforts to measure public opinion?

1940's:Polling techniques became more sophisicated, Gallup organization, National Election Study (Michigan) , and Internet

def. sampling error

;the chance variation that results from using a representative, but small, sample to estimate the characteristics of a larger population; a measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll;

What does polling do?

According to George Gallup: polling defines issues (tells us what the people care and not care about), shapes decisions by gov. (b/c political leaders are more apt to vote, support or not) , speeds up process of democracy or (what political leaders should do)

Exit polls conducted at selected polling places on ______ Day, sample every __th voter, results of these polls help the news media predict....

Election Day;10th; predict outcomes of key races

What are some efforts to influence public opinion:

Federalist papers (one of the first major attempts to change public opinion, series of papers written to make the case of the constitution, the benefits it had to shape the public opinion) , Paine's Common Sense and The Crisis , Uncle Tom's Cabin (on slavery) , WWI, embedded reporters and photographers in Iraq (info. on the war)

Ex. of group effects

Hispanics political beliefs are mostly in a democratic view and lean more liberal ; Cubans tend to be more conservative than other hispanic groups; Men tend to be more conservative, and women tend to be more liberal.

The Role of Public Opinion in a democracy: Why public opinion does matter:

If politicians don't listen to the people, they they are unlikely to be reelected. politicians want to get reelected, so they do what people want.

Clinton Scandals

Impact on generation Y (1980-1990)

What is the bad thing about stratified sampling?

Might not be accurate with regions. ex. area codes might be from vegas even though the person lives in Denton.

The impact of events: Key political events play a very important role in a person's socialization. What are some examples of key political events?

Nixon's resignation in 1974, Clinton Scandals, 9/11 attacks

Arguments regarding public opinion: Polling is good

Policy choice should match majority preferences; it provides info. to officials to figure out what the people want.

def. call-in poll

like American idol. Call ins. Not a good example because some are not going to call in.

What is the purpose of push polls?

The purpose is to push voters towards a particular opinion. Some are lies. They shape the way voters are thinking.

What is the bad things of quota sampling?

This is still random. What if you get too many asians in one sample. This is not desirable so we cannot draw samples on everything.

What is the bad thing of random sampling?

You can do well if you talk to a lot of people and just a small group of people. So there is equal chance. This can be good and useful for drawing conclusions BUT sometimes you can have a bad sample. ex. fishing has its good days and bad days because of random chance.

def. random sampling

a method of poll selection that gives each person the same chance of being selected.

def. internet poll

a poll on the internet. problem is that it doesn't give a good example. some people vote more than once

def. benchmark poll

anything is something that is so exactly what that thing is supposed to be that other things like it are measured against it. For example let's say you went on the best vacation you'd ever been on. From then on every vacation you go on will be measured against that vacation. A "benchmark poll" would be a poll that was so flawless every poll taken after it would be measured by that poll. how they expect to vote in the future.

def. exit poll

ask how they voted after the election

def. tracking poll

ask to track down polls at different times

What are the types of campaign polls

benchmark poll, tracking poll, exit poll

What is the sample?

between 450 (state)-1500 (america) people, tradeoffs: sampling a lot of people is improvement but not as much. Do it more in a cost efficient way. Too many people is expensive.

What are the types of polls?

campaign polls and pseudo polls

def. group effects

certain characteristics that allow persons to be lumped into categories- also affect the development of political beliefs and opinions.

def. random digital dialing

computer randomly selects people to poll. it became easier to survey people. This becomes less of a problem. was able to point out where people live.

Question wording may:

confuse respondents, prompt respondents to think about an issue in a certain way or oversimplify complex social issues.

def. stratified sampling

divide country into 4 regions and sample them. Picking people based on where they live.

If you report exit polls too early, what happens?

errors can come along

Social Groups: The idea here is the _______ and ______ of people influence their political beleifs.

experiences and beliefs

What are the agents of socialization? that influence what you feel about politics or your political beliefs

family (has greater influence), mass media (media, hollywood movies, news sources like MSNBC), school (people you interact with and classes), peers, personal experience

What is an example of this?

foreign policy. ex. How the U.S. should engage in Russia? this is hard to develop an opinion because they don't really affect us in nature.

President has the greatest power in ______ policy;public knowledge is low.

foreign; b/c the way the president has a limit on what to with domestic policies but can do more in foreign policies.

What to do to have a good poll or sample?

have the right time, the right people, cost efficient way. if we do it wisely, we can draw good conclusions

Nixon's resignation in 1974

impression on young people, gov. not always right or honest. People's opinion of the gov. declined sharply.

Measuring and tracking public opinion:

informal techniques (just talking to people) , science efforts (polling with random people, inferences, techniques and approaches) , inference from a smaller subset (sample)

What are the types of pseudo polls?

internet poll, call-in poll, push poll

def. Public opinion polls

interviews or surveys, samples of citizens, used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population; like what do you think about the president. we use polls and surveys about what they think

def. push poll

is used to influence what you think about opinions. voters get phone calls and surveys. The purpose is not to say yes or no. The purpose is to push voters towards a particular opinion. Some are lies. They shape the way voters are thinking.

def: Cues from Leaders:

low levels of knowledge can lead to rapid opinion shifts on issues. information from leaders can shift opinions quickly. , political leaders may move these shifts.

def. personal benefits

most Americans more "I" centered, attitudes on moral issues are often based on underlying values. ; drives more of a stance on public opinions. we tend to focus on what's going to help/benefit ourselves.

Why does measurement error occur?

occurs b/c of mistakes in polling like the wording of questions and question ordering.

The level of knowledge about history and politics is low b/c:

of its really boring or easy. we tend to each things that's not interesting. This hurt's American's understanding of current political events.

Why do we form public opinions?

personal benefits (TX legislative spending more money on other things like colleges, wages) , political knowledge (knowledge we have), cues from leaders or makers (they are going to try to influence political believers with ads, labeling , and speeches)

def. Political knowledge

political knowledge and political participation have a reciprocal relationship, high literacy late (able to read and write), level of knowledge about history and politics is low, and geographically illiterate

How polling and Public opinion affect politicians, politics , and policy

politicians and gov. spend millions each year to take the pulse of the public, they rely on polls but we do not know to what degree, distort the election process with bandwagon or underdog effect

def. 1940's polling techniques became more sophisicated:

setback with the prediction that Dewey would defeat Truman in the 1948 general election. Belief of people's opinion locked in Sept. The problem was that they were basing things in Sept. but people changed their minds.

def. campaign polls

polls for campaigns

def. in person interviewing

problems: some people do not pick up their phones, that's a lot of people to interview and talk on the phone with

What sampling is the best representation for a small group of people?

quota sampling

There are some errors that are unavoidable like flipping a coin:

random choice; through chance variation.

What are the two samples?

random sampling and quota sampling

Political Knowledge and political participation have a ________ relationship.

reciprocal; have a close relationship.; the more knowledge of politics, the more participation.

Def. pseudo polls

refers to a number of practices that may appear to be legitimate polls but are not. A legitimate poll uses scientific sampling to learn about the opinions and behaviors of a population.

What is the literary digest?

reliance on straw polls to correctly predict presidential elections from 1920-1932. Predicted that incumbent, FDR, would be defeated in the 1936 election. ; they asked subscribers who they were going to vote for but got it WRONG.

What kind of group effects?

religion, race + ethnicity, gender, age, and region

def. quota sampling

relying on known population statistics (race from census)

What are the shortcomings of polling?

sampling error, limited respondent options, lack of information (people have little or no info), and intensity (if you like a restaurant, you are more likely to give positive feedback than if you didn't like a restaurant)

How is public opinion measured?

selecting the sample

How is public opinion measured?

selecting the sample, with stratified sampling or contacting respondents, with random digit dialing and in person interviewing.

There are some errors that are avoidable:

selection bias, measurement error

Surveys that fail to guard against _______ _____usually offer nothing of value. The results they report will not be ___________of the larger population.

selection bias; representative

People learn politicial beliefs and values in their families, schools, communities, religious institutions and workplaces --- a process called ____________.

socialization

def. Internet

study polls just on the internet only. Not everyone is going to take an internet poll, some people take it more than once, maybe some people do not have internet

What are the fatal flaws in 1936 survey?

surveys were drawn from telephones and auto owners, Timing: Questionaires were mailed in Sept. (People's opinions change over time), Only highly motivated sent cards back (b/c people are lazy)

def. selection bias

the distortion caused when a method systematically includes or excludes people with certain types of attitudes from the sample.

Def. measurement error

the error that arises from attempting to measure something as subjective as opinion, are much more troublesome; When you make errors that causes people to respond differently.

What is the most important socializing agent?

the family

The Role of Public Opinion in a democracy: Why public opinion ought or should matter:

the government's legitimacy rests on the idea that gov. exists to serve the interests of its citizens. The gov. serves us, the gov. should listen and answer for the people.

When we do surveys, we want to make sure:

the people we are surveying match people who are voting.

What does bully pulpit mean?

the president is in the spotlight.(called the BULLY PULPIT) the ability to talk to the american people to shape public opinion

What political leader has the most power to move these shifts or mold public opinion? and why?

the president; they have the power with the ability to communicate with the people. the president is in the spotlight.(called the BULLY PULPIT) the ability to talk to the american people to shape public opinion

def. socialization

the process through which an individual acquires particular politcial orientations or political beliefs; the learning process by which people acquire their political beliefs and values

Geographically illiterate means:

we are not good at finding places on maps

Personal benefits: If faced with policies that do not affect us personally, are not moral in nature, then:

we have difficulty forming an opinion.