PSYC 230 Chapter 13

Heuristics

"rules of thumb" that will likely provide the correct answer

Syllogism

A form of deductive reasoning consisting of a major premise, a minor premise, and a conclusion. Example: First premise: Noble gases are stable. Second premise: Neon is a noble gas. Inference: Therefore, neon is stable

Mental Model

A specific situation represented in a person's mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning Create a model/representation of a situation Generate tentative conclusions about model Look for exceptions to falsify model If exception is found, look for ways to modify the model No more exceptions & current model matches conclusion: determine validity of syllogism

Law of large numbers

A statistical rule stating that the larger the number of individuals randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population (the smaller, the less)

The application of a(n) ________ makes it easier to solve the "drinking beer" version of the Wason problem. A. permission schema B. atmosphere effect C. conjunction rule D. availability heuristic

A. permission schema

Consider the following syllogism: All cats are birds. All birds have wings. All cats have wings. This syllogism is A. valid B. invalid C. true D. both valid and true

A. valid

Affective forecasting

Ability to predict one's own emotions People tend to be inaccurate

Social Exchange Theory

An important aspect of human behavior is the ability of two people to cooperate in a way that is beneficial to both of them "detecting cheating" is important

Derrick purchased a new car, a Ford Mustang, less than a month ago. While sitting in traffic, Derrick says to his girlfriend, "Mustangs must be the best-selling car now. I can't remember seeing as many on the road as I have recently." Derrick's judgment is most likely biased by a(n) A. representativeness heuristic B. availability heuristic C. permission schema D. illusory correlation

B. availability heuristic

If you are given the information that in order to vote in a presidential election, you must be at least 18 years of age, and that Will voted in the last presidential election, you can logically conclude that Will is at least 18 years old. This is an example of using _______ reasoning. A. inductive B. deductive C. conjunctive D. descriptive

B. deductive

Making probable conclusions based on evidence involves _______ reasoning. A. deductive B. inductive C. connective D. syllogistic

B. inductive

The tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable is called the ________. A. availability heuristic B. confirmatory bias C. belief bias D. mental set

C. belief bias

Given its definition, expected utility theory is most applicable to deciding whether to A. break up or stay involved with a current girlfriend. B. go out for junior varsity hockey or junior varsity basketball. C. buy first class or coach tickets for a spring break trip. D. take astronomy or geology as a physical science elective course.

C. buy first class or coach tickets for a spring break trip.

Illusory correlations

Correlation appears to exist between two events, but it actually either does not or is weaker than assumed We expect things to be related, so we fool ourselves into thinking they are even when they are not

Of the following real-world phenomena, the confirmation bias best explains the observation that people A. do not always make decisions that maximize their monetary outcome. B. are more likely to purchase meat advertised as 80% fat free than 20% fat. C. misjudge homicide as more prevalent in the U.S. than suicide. D. can cite several reasons for their position on a controversial issue but none for the opposing side.

D. can cite several reasons for their position on a controversial issue but none for the opposing side.

Framing effect

Decisions are influenced by how a decision is stated (framed) Can highlight one aspect of situation

Truth

Depends on content I.e., is it a truthful/factual statement If two premises of a valid syllogism are true, the conclusion must be true

Validity

Depends on form Conclusion follows logically from premises

Categorical syllogism

Describe relation between two categories using all, no, or some Example: First premise: Noble gases are stable. Second premise: Neon is a noble gas. Inference: Therefore, neon is stable

Actual emotions

Emotions actually experienced after decision is made

Expected emotions

Emotions that people predict that they will feel concerning an outcome

Availability Heuristic

Events more easily remembered are judged as being more probable Driving vs. flying: 1 in 98 will die in car accident 1 in 7,178 will die in plane accident

Permission schema

If A is satisfied (being of legal drinking age), then B can be carried out (drinking alcohol) Used in real-world versions of task because people are familiar with rules You've likely learned: "If you are 21, then you get to drink beer" Helps focus attention on testable aspect (being 16) in the card task

Belief bias

If conclusion is true or believable, syllogism is more likely to be judged as valid The tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusions are believable (the idea that some students are irritable is believable)

Representativeness Heuristic

Making judgments based on how much one event resembles another event

Stereotypes

Oversimplified generalizations about a group or class of people, that often focuses on the negative Lead to people paying particular attention to behaviors associated with the stereotype; this attention creates an illusory correlation that reinforces the stereotype Related to "availability heuristic" because selective attention of stereotypical behaviors makes them more available

Expected Utility Theory

People are rational With all the relevant information, they will make a decision resulting in maximum expected utility Utility = outcomes that achieve a person's goals Outcomes that are desirable because they're in best interest Receiving maximum monetary payoff (economics), obtaining a good grade, etc. According to expected utility theory, the only thing affecting your decisions should be the outcome that increases your "payoff" But we are often influenced by factors having nothing to do with utilities! (gambling) people do not follow expected utility theory

Status-quo bias

People tend to do nothing when faced with a decision Most people stick with default

Conjunction rule

The probability of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone)

Falsification principle

To test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify it

Deductive reasoning

determining whether a conclusion logically follows from a statement Is something true/valid based on the argument presented (premises) draws specific conclusions from general principles or premises Example: First premise: Noble gases are stable. Second premise: Neon is a noble gas. Inference: Therefore, neon is stable.

Incidental emotions

emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision

Conditional syllogisms

first premise has form of "If...then..." "If p, then q" If I study, then I'll get a good grade I studied Therefore, I'll get a good grade If I study, then I'll get a good grade I didn't get a good grade Therefore, I didn't study

Base rate

how common a characteristic or behavior is in the general population

Decision making

how people make judgments that involve choices between different courses of action Personal decisions: what school to attend, whether to fly or drive to a destination, etc. Professional decisions: which campaign should my company run, which stock should I invest in, etc. Basic property: decisions involve both benefits and costs

Utility

outcomes that achieve a person's goals Outcomes that are desirable because they're in best interest Receiving maximum monetary payoff (economics), obtaining a good grade, etc

Risk aversion

people think that a loss will have more impact than a gain of the same size

Inductive reasoning

reasoning based on observations, or reaching conclusions from evidence What will happen based on what we observe Draw general principles from specific instances Example: When I flip the switch, the light turns on. If I flip the switch right now, the light will turn on.

Confirmation bias

tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to our hypothesis and overlook information that argues against it, "pair of blinders"

Judgment

the ability to evaluate & make decisions

Dual Systems Approach to Thinking

the idea that there are two mental systems— a fast, automatic, intuitive system called system 1 and a slower, more deliberative, thoughtful system called System 2

Neuroeconomics

the neural basis of decision making

Reasoning

the process of drawing conclusions based on evidence

Decisions

the process of making choices between alternatives

Myside bias

the tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence in a way that is biased towards ones own opinions