Public opinion

conclusion Pew comes to

People know the same amount about politics as they did 20 years ago

Question parts

Question stem +interviewer instructions and reading of categories + answer categories

Zaller's R.A.S. model with his axioms

Receive new information- reception axiom decide whether to Accept- resistance axiom Sample from information that is salient at the moment to respond- accessibility and response axioms

Zaller's Four Axioms

Reception Axiom Resistance Axiom Accessibility Axiom Response Axiom

Kinders ultimate sources of political beliefs (5)

"pluralistic roots of political beliefs" 1. Personality 2. self-interest 3. group identification 4. values 5. inferences from history

margin of error of +/- 3 % points really means

+/- 3 % for the whole sample for results at or near the 50% mark -MOE bigger for subgroups -MOE smaller away from 50%

What Converse saw in people's use of ideological terms

-2.5% active use of ideological terms -10% near ideologues -88% everyone else ideological innocent -could be that they just don't use the ideological terminology

Language in surveys

-44% of hispanic adults speak english less than very well. -difference in opinion when questioned in spanish -if survey claims to represent views of hispanics, make sure the survey interviewed respondents in english AND spanish. If not, not representative

Most common examples of heuristics

-Party ID -Ideology -Endorsement by specific groups -Poll numbers/ perceived acceptance -candidate appearance

Who is the public- big circle to little cirle

General public Voting public Attentive public Active public

SUMMARY OF LESSON 2

-Public opinion is important in a democracy- consent of the governed -enduring probs with pub op -defining the public is hard. better to speak of publics due to differences in level of attention, knowledge, and interest -defining public opinion is hard in terms of what does and what should count as public opinion Zaller says: -opinion statements are more prevalent than true opinions -elite discourse is the main source by which people understand the world beyond their experience -opinions= information filtered through predispositions

Bartels' estate tax

-a variety of beliefs would seem to favor estate tax because people dont like that that income inequality is increasing and people feel the rich paying too little in tax -the vast majority of Americans (66%+) favor the repeal of the estate tax -positions highly correlated with feelings about own tax burden -NOT about own likeliness to benefit from repeal -poor and middle class both more likely to support repeal KEY! UNSHAKEABLE UNDERLYING AMERICAN VALUES THAT REJECT TAXING SOMEONE'S INHERITANCE -would need a moral argument to the contrary to sway, not more facts

why zaller rejects the "file drawer" model of public opinion and evidence

-assumes a level of knowledge and engagement that most individuals dont have Evidence against: -response instability over time -question wording effects -question order

Egalitarian measures on policy preferences

-closely related to citizens opinions of a wide range of policies -generally leads to more progressive political views -our society should do whatever is necessary to make sure that everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed -one of the big problems in this country is that we don't give everyone an equal chance -if people were treated equally in this country we would gave few problems -hard work offers little guarantee of success -even if people try hard, they often cannot reach their goals -more likely to support -spending on health and education -welfare programs -efforts to improve societal position of disadvantaged communities

Other why is the industry in flux

-continuing decrease in response rate -caller ID -advent of internet and internet-based surveys -easier and faster but dont get as good a representative sample -measuring opinion on social media -gauging how people feel off twitter -rise of cell phones -call poll but cant auto-dial

prerequisites for public opinion

-democratic conditions -existence of a consensus on fundamentals -needs to be common ground -community opinion (some think) -cant exist with large minorities unwilling to abide by majority decision

Lau and Redlawsk Information Processing Experiment

-designed to minic information environment of a political campaign -volunteers "participate" in an election: researchers know political attitudes -participants receive stream of information through info board -cant read and consider everything -Lau and Redlawsk observe what they click on and their vote choices -if participant uses a heuristic, they could tell

probability sample

-dominant sample -defining characteristic is that it allows the researcher to find the probability of any single person's being selected for the sample -can use statistical theory, calculate the sampling error, MARGIN OF ERROR, generalizable to the population -choose randomly or from a listed sample -most popular is national telephone random digit dial -works for people not in phone book

US Gov't surveys High effort pew survey Voter and consumer databases

-done by CDC, high response rates, limited questions-mostly demographics -same questions as standard survey, but long field period, aggressive "refusal conversation" -collections of various data bases that have measures, many demographics, some attitudinal

Question(naire) design

-dont want to be too long -order effects -typically general to specific -most important questions first -can randomize to help reduce order effects -idealy multiple questions get a true picture of opinion on a topic, but its difficult -context and timing

Effects of emotion 1: opinion formation

-effect of emotion on opinion of candidate, issues ect -emotion makes people make sense of their situations -direct, large, directionally-consistent impact -particular emotions have distinct impacts -also indirect effect -> emotions can influence the process of opinion formation -emotion changes the way people weigh situations -9/11 is an example because fearful people percieved greater risks and wanted more precaution and angry citizens saw fewer risks and less needs for precautions

MID CLASS SUMMARY

-most americans do not know a whole lot about politics -research and evidene suggest that heuristics help people make appropriate political decisions individually and collectively - some theorists question the extent that heuristics can really help

Qualitative methods of studying public opinion

-focus groups, interviews, reviews of documents for types of themes -primary process used to formulate theory or hypothesis -mostly text-based -more in-depth information on a few cases -primarily unstructured or semi-structured response options -no statistical tests -can be valid and reliable: depends on skill and rigor or researcher -lighter on planning end heavier on analysis phase -less generalizable to general public

emotions of elections campaigns and mass media

-framing of political issues in the news impacts people's emotions -draws on appraisal theory to bring out different emotions -episodically framed news is more emotionally engaging than thematically framed news. -emotional impact of tv and imagery. -9/11 used more emotional language than print sources and had a larger impact on the negative emotions -all the strong feelings being shown gave people strong feelings -giving people bad emotions about opposing parties gets people to switch parties

how to define principles and values

-general and enduring standards -abstract beliefs about the way the world works/ should work and about right and wrong

Key to public opinion and American democracy main points- V.O. Key

-governments must concern themselves with the opinions of their citizens -government reliance on public opinion goes down as complexity of issues go up

Group based emotions

-groups can call on emotions to get their points across -if a group feels guilty about something they will strongly mediate support for reparations and new policies -AIDS movement called on grief and anger to redirect the gay rights movement -groups will also express lots of emotions toward groups in society that are not captured by general measures of prejudice -people don't mind looking at a group from far away and feeling about it but when they consider them just people they become to similar to them and have more feelings of fear

Individualism measure

-had effect in only a few policy areas -oppose welfare spending -prefer a more limited role for federal (as opposed to state) government in handling social and economic problems -any person who is willing to work hard has a good chance of succeeding -if people work hard they almost always get what they want -most people who don't get ahead should not blame the system, they only have themselves to blame

Why is Zaller famous

-had one of the first unified cohesive theories -Addressed attitude changes and opinion formation AND poll response formation -polls are an imperfect way to take public opinion -looked at how people take polls -his model worked in pretty much any context

Lane challenges to converse

-he was converse's biggest critic -says people do have ideologies/ opinions -examine the process of political reasoning -his definition of ideology was closer to american values -equality, freedom, democracy Kinder says lane and converse mean very different things by ideology

who/how nonattitudes help and hurt

-help those who want to show the public feels a certain way about X -hurt if want reliable valid measurement of opinion -can show mushiness and how information can change it

Collective Opinion Model

-heuristics on a Macro Scale -crowd more rational than individuals

Zaller's RAS model

-how citizens learn about matters and how they convert that info into an opinion Receive Accept Sample -information stream -> person receives info and accepts or rejects based on predisposition ->person reports opinion

how to minimize problem of nonattitudes in data

-include multiple questions that assess same issue in different ways -include screener/ filter questions "do you have an opinion on this?" -offer no opinion -include language within the question itself such as have you not heard enough about this to have an opinion -include neutral middle responses -use odd numbers to have a middle -yankelovich solution

Issues with polling on cellphones

-increased expense -buy lists in many cases -portability (people may be busy) -against federal law to auto-dial: must be dialed by hand -often have to pay for minutes -lower response rates -cell phones seen as more private -easier to reach but less likely to participate

Zaller on information neutrality

-information is never neutral: frames and language can make a huge difference -elite actors try to create a reality that is simple and vivid so ordinary people can grasp it -some have agendas, some dont, but all have some bias -sometimes a single narrative but sometimes a choice -ex: vietnam war: most people were behind it in the beginning but towards the end people got fed up causing split in narritive

Whats wrong with "do you still use illegal drugs?"

-initial assumptions -loaded words and inflammatory phrases -double negatives -double barreled -ordering of words within the question -availability of answer categories -ambiguity -complexity

In-depth interviews

-intensive, open-ended conversation with an individual -ultimate qualitative -used often for sensitive topics and with big wigs

Zaller on predispositions

-interests values and life situations impact their opinions and shape how they view things

causes of nonattitudes

-lack of prominence -surveys digging too deeply past people's level of info or interest -weak attitudes/ low relevance -importance of different issues impacted by their attention in the news -few people want to appear uninfomred

SELF INTEREST SUMMARY

-less influence on public opinion than would think -is often trumped by values or other factors -information plays a role -does impact in cases where benefits or harms are 1. substantia 2. known 3. clear 4. justifiable

LESSON 3 SUMMARY

-lots of ways to assess or measure public opinion -Qual vs. quant -pros and cons of focus groups -nonattitudes are a lot like constructed (vs. retrieved) opinoins, Zaller's opinion statements -good questions are hard to write, perfect questions impossible -avoid obvious traps: confusion, double barreled, bad or incomplete responses, biased questions -order matters -length matters

Margin of sampling error

-measures accuracy of a survey -shows amount of error in survey's results that stem from sampling -donts take into account other sources of error -larger the sample, smaller the margin of error

Effects of emotion 3: political action

-most important, least studied -play a central role in explaining when and in what way citizens act on their opinions and beliefs -strength of emotion may be the difference between saying you hold an opinion and acting on it -anxiety and enthusiasm may increase political participation, including beyond voting -fear may also increase political participation among politically sophisticated people, but may have the opposite effect on the less sophisticated -people who are extremely anxious and angry are more likely to be terrorists -when people think of death and 9/11 they look at bush in a positive light

why is the industry in flux -push polls -frugging -sugging

-much easier to poll with new technology -push polls: spreading information under the guise of research -frugging: fundraising under the guise of research -sugging: selling under the guise of research

Bishop on nonattitudes

-much of public opinion in polls is an illusion created by survey design -weak opinions= more susceptible to influence by format, wording, order and response alternatives

types of closed-ended questions

-multiple choice (only 1 answer) -multiple choice (multiple answers allowed) -rating/ scales -matrix questions (presented as a multiple choice table with similar questions) -ranking (feeling and intensity)

most useful in being an informed active participant in a democratic process

-names -facts about issues -policy ideas and preferences of various groups, representatives

characteristics of effective group and moderating

-nondirectedness, not leading -permissiveness, non threatening environment -equal treatment of everyone (UPR) -allow people to go in depth -allow people to talk/ think out loud -conversation with each other -personal context

IDEOLOGY SUMMARY

-often think ideology is the way people organize their political thinking -doesnt seem to be the case for those at the top of the converse pyramids- most knowledgable engaged interested people -probelsm with this assumption for the American electorate overall. presumes more knowledge, awareness and attention than the majority of Americans have -maybe (Lane) the question is on how we define ideology. If we use a looser definition, we do see ideologies (values/principles) drive political opinions. Its just messier than we would like -there is evidence that values and principles drive policy opinions, though again, not always strongly

difference between phone and online surveys

-online shows all possible results, phone is more stop me when -can present more with online because people wont get lost -Online allows for more choices on dont know, not sure, refused (ability to skip questions) -online has more choices for middle categories

Zaller: what is public opinion (simple)

-opinions are a blend of of information and predisposition -if you're a dem you might just side with what the dems say -if you just heard a convincing thing about one side, you might just side with that

whats wrong with "would you say traffic contributes more or less to air pollution than industry?"

-order of wording -context provided with emphasis on one aspect of an issue -argumentation included in the question -social desirability -answer categories -doesnt allow for all possible answers -doesnt allow for nonattitudes, middle choices, dont know

Lippman: what is public opinion (simple)

-pictures in our heads, pseudo environments -don't know whats going on in places we are not familiar with -have the illusion of knowing things but we don't really know thm

Effects of emotion 2: attention and learning

-political knowledge (or lack of) is important -emotions can impact what citizens are engaged to what they learn: what they pay attention to -lots of focus on anger and fear -angry people tend to have more narrow opinions because they only look for things that confirm their anger -anxious people are more likely to do a balanced search but also might diminish learning while making people more attentive -also focus on excitement when it comes to political candidates -anxiety only causes go getters to get engaged

on-line focus groups

-recent -less nuanced -represents how we recieve info and interact in the 21st century -more quantitative, easier to generalize to a population -one-time or bulletin board -interesting technology

Zaller on nonattitudes

-response instability- different responses to same question at different times

KTPOAAD- Public as an organic entity- key

-some think the public can move through a debate and come to a decision on an issue -some think its a simple organism: individuals and groups are linked together by mass communications to completely turn public opinion -this happens more in small communities and not national issues because there is rarely common concern

Converse's finding on constraints

-substantial constraint between opinions on issues only for elites not general public -Little relationship between the belief systems of elite and masses in their spheres of influence -aka masses are loosely constrained and elites are tightly constrained. Elite belief systems don't overlap but mass systems do

Focus group uses and advantages

-supplement other forms of research -compromise of tradition research between qualitative of in depth interviews and quantitative of a survey -can be combined with experiments -open-ended and exploratory -learn from people themselves how they talk and think about something -can get at the why -deeper understanding and occasionally new and surprising insights -understand opinion inter-relations: the complexity of opinion because they are fluid and continuously constructed -closed ended surveys make respondents present fixed, self-contained pre-existing opinions which may not exist -better approximate opinion formation and the way people actually think about political and social issues- with peers not in isolation -models social dynamic process of opinion formation -influenced by many factors

quantitative methods of studying public opinion

-surveys, structured interviews and observations, reviews of records, documents and other numeric information -primarily deductive process used to test pre-specified concepts, construct, and hypothesis that make a theory -mostly number-based -less in-depth but more breadth of information -primarily fixed response options -statistical tests analyzed -can be valid and reliable: depends on measurement device or instrument used -heavier on planning lighter on analysis -generalizable to general public if done correctly

Key: what is public opinion (simple)

-the opinions held by private individuals that governments find important to take note of

main point of Lippmann intro

-the pictures inside people's heads do not correspond with what is really going on -The significance of something is often different than what it really is -when an idea is too abstract people focus on figureheads -if someone isnt somewhere all they have is their mental image -man responds to his psudo environment but because its a behavior consequences are real -HOW PEOPLE VIEW SOCIETIES THEY DONT KNOW IS PUBLIC OPINION

Question(naire) design and response effects, timing, and length concerns

-typically general to specific -most important questions first -randomize can help reduce order effects -when important questions are first, they are not swayed by any other questions length concerns -give description but dont make it too long

focus group cons

-unnatural form of conversation among strangers -dominant personalities/ leading moderator may take over -not representative of larger population (n too small) -Kruegar says we can make cautious generalizations reactivity: interaction may skew conversation Negative: bitch session subject interpretation

Lane's methodology in ideology in Eastport

-used in depth interviews as research technique. Long multi-part interviews with 15 working class and lower-middle class men from one city

Characteristics of public opinion by KTPOAAD- Key

-views put on a scale from extreme left to extreme right -also measure intensity of opinion -also measure stability -view based on no knowledge -widely stable issues are an issue for the government

In-person focus group factors

-where held -how recruit -typically 10-12, but can be more or less -homogeneous group -skilled moderator -multiple groups

Emotion- how long been studied

-young field with lots of things still unresolved

NO SUMMARY FOR CLASS 5

...

Most surveys are done with ______ people with a margin or error of ______

1,000 people +/-3% you can be 95% sure that if you interviewed everyone you would be within 3 % points so if 50% support policy X, you can be 95% sure that between 47% and 53% support it

Luskin's 3 sources of political knowledge

1. Ability 2. Motivation 3. Opportunity

Zaller's two phenomenon on people gaining opinion he wants to explain

1. How citizens learn about matters that are for the most part beyond our direct experience 2. how citizens convert this information into opinions

Zallers Four (kinda 5) Main Ideas

1. citizens vary in attention and exposure 2. knowledge is a critical part of reaction formation 3. citizens dont have fixed attitudes on every issue, rather they construct "opinion statements" on the fly 4. salience is key to polling responses -what the person just learned will sway their responses 5(kinda): elite discourse is the source of almost all our information

Converse's ideological innocence

A great majority of people DO NOT -adhere to a set of beliefs/ ideology -have a clear grasp of what ideology is

5 reasons to study public opinion

1. in democratic states, policy should rest on public opinion 2. respect for public opinion is a safeguard against people abusing emotions to gain power -can be a check against really outrageous behavior 3. provides clues about culture -norms and values and sentiments that make up our culture 4. must be mobilized at times -change what people think 5. dedicates the bounds of foreign policy -people have strong opinions on domestic issues -not as strong on foreign but still need to be considered

what do we mean and not mean by self interest

1. increase opportunity to get what you want 2. for yourself and your immediate family -doesnt mean full information or rationality -information and knowledge matter -short term vs. long term

GLYNN 5 enduring problems of public opinion

1. lack of competence -lippmann's argument: world is too complex and large to know everything and have an opinion on it. So much happens constantly 2. lack of resources -its not lack of competence -people can't be up to date without spending lots of time -no easy way to know everything 3. Tyranny of the Majority -idea that if you're relying too much on public opinion maybe you're focusing on whats popular and not whats right 4. Domination by elites -if elites really want something, they're probably going to win -class warfare 5. Susceptibility to persuasion -using buzzwords and saying what people want to hear -people respond well to emotional and irrational appeals

Zaller's issues on public opinion: 2

1. people dont have solid opinions 2. when they are asked a question they come up with an answer to oblige the interviewer, feel smart, ect.

Zaller's two types of political message

1. persuasive -arguments or images providing a reason for taking a position or point of view- become considerations 2. cueing -contextual information about the idological or partisan implication of a persuasive message. lets people to perceive the relationship between persuasive message and their political predispositions

Lau and Redlawsk findings (4)

1. voters use heuristics 2. they are not a cure all -can make people with low political sophistication make less accurate decisions 3. Heuristics are more helpful to political experts than novices -The more you know the more you know- converse -sometimes experts can be led astray 4. Voters get superior guidance from simple heuristics than attempts to account for lots of information

11 Questions to ask when writing about polls

1. who paid for the poll & why was it done? -why interested in info 2. Who did the poll? -is it well regarded? 3. how was the poll conducted? -online? on phone? hybrid? 4. How many people were interviewed and whats the margin of sampling error? 5. How were those people chosen? 6. what area or what group were people chosen from? 7. How were interviews conducted? 8. What questions were asked? were they well worded, balanced and unbiased? 9.What order were the questions asked in? could there be influence there? 10. Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed, or only a subset? 11. was the data weighted and if so, to what?

Zaller on mass attention (two main points and rankings of attention)

2 main points -attention varies -overall quite low Rankings -political sophisticates: a lot of attention -mass middle: medium attention, varies by topic and time of year -people who cant name the VP: little to no attention

Zaller: political awareness (two main points and ranking of awareness)

2 main points -have to pay attention -have to get it Rankings -political sophisticates: high awareness -mass middle: medium awareness, varies by topic and time of year -people who cant name the VP: little to no awareness

problem of survey participation

90% don't answer

correlation

A and B tend to rise and fall together

Causation

A change in A causes a change in B -correlation does not imply causation

AAPOR meaning

American association for public opinion research

Kinder and ideology in public opinion (4)

Analysis of Converse's original research (ideological innocence) responses and revisions to converse and other relevant literature/ theories general verdict on the overarching question

what influences/correlates with knowledge

Demographics -education (best predictor of knowledge) -Age -affluence

what influences/correlates with political knowledge?

Engagement, Enjoyment, Attention, interest

Values that are fundamental in the U.S.

Equality individualism freedom democracy capitalism moral traditonalism limited government

Zallers recipe for an opinion

INFORMATION (and arguments from elite discourse) + PRE-DISPOSITION = OPINION

Types of surveys

In-person mail telephone -landline only -landline and cell -Interactive voice recording internet

Response Axiom

Individuals answer survey questions by averaging across the considerations immediately salient or accessible to them

examples of self-interest not having too much impact

Kinder -war and public opinion -vietnam -first gulf war

does self-interest impact how people think about politics

Kinder says yes and no

Who uses surveys and why

Media organizations: external uses to report about key issues, needs and preferences of readership, understand new media environment Candidates: internally understand public opinion and change opinions. externally know where they stand Issues organizations: internally key issues of the day- what will get people fired up about their subject. externally to spread the word. Get people to understand more than gut reactions governments: internally help shape programs, externally to know where they stand and what to change corporations academics

Internet surveys pluses and minuses

PLUSES -fast, cheap, remove interviewer, interactive gizmos, graphics, video, reflects how people share and receive info today MINUS -not probability sample (opt-in), internet use, access and comfort not uniform, remove interviewer, harder to control participation

converse's definition of a belief system

a collection of ideas which are connected by function

sample

a subset of people who you actually interview: want it to look like the universe

define ideology

a way of organizing ones political opinions. An overarching set of beliefs regarding the proper role of government in society, in regulating the economy, and in individuals' lives.

content analysis of social media advantages, disadvantages and concerns

advantages: rich texture data -unobtrusive and non-reactive disadvantages: labor intensive and costly concerns; sample, coding scheme, inter-coder reliability

Advantages and disadvantages of mass media being the archives of public opinion

advantages: rich texture data and unobtrusive disadvantages: labor intensive and manifests not latent content Concerns: samples, coding schemes, inter-coder reliability

Zaller's definition of considerations

any reason that mught induce an individual to decide a political issue one way or another interaction of -aggregate level information carried in elite dicourse including elites clues about how it should be interpreted -individual-level difference in levels of attention to discourse -individual-level differences in political values

Yankelovich solution

assess the strength of conviction of the opinion 1. how issue effects respondent personally 2. how well informed the respondent feels 3. how much they discuss it with family and friends 4. assessment of how likely his views will change

collective opinion model

assumes that error in individual opinions is random and smooths out in the aggregate

Ways to assess the public mood and methods of measuring public opinion

behavioral indicators -elections returns and turnout -consumer behavior -public meetings and demonstrations content analysis of... -traditional media -news coverage -entertainment -social media content in-depth interviews focus groups surveys experiments

Who is the public: Lippmann

bi-level -actors -people who attempt to direct the way of political affairs -journalists, activists, politicians -spectators -watch whats going on and might get provoked every once in a while -there can be overlap -some people feel strongly about some things and don't care about other things

When does self-interest count

big impact when: 1. benefits or harms well-publicized 2. benefits and harms clear and certain 3. substantial benefits or harms 4. claim is seen as legitimate/fair EX: Cigarette tax: non-smokers didnt mind smokers hated it EX: property taxes: People that didn't have bad property taxes/ didnt benefit didnt like it because more people started coming to california

focus groups

carefully planned discussions designed to obtain perceptions on a defined area of interest, in a permissive, non-threatening environment -loose discussion allows for unexpected potentially valuable findings

difference between public opinion and custom

concerns the issues where solution is not automatically provided by custom or expectations

Converse's definition of ideology

configurations of ideas and attitudes in which the elements are bound together by some of constraint or functional interdependence

endorsement effect

differences in response depending on who is associated with the issue

Appraisal tendency theory

emphasizes ability of emotions to make someone have some sort of opinion

Nie, Verba and Petrocik

found increase in ideology -attributed change to more ideologically polarized environment (vietnam war and civil rights)

Conover and Feldman

found relationship between ideology as liberal or conservative and people's issue positions -didnt make sense becasue lots over americans dont think of themselves as liberal or conservative, many identify as moderate, low correlation between label and opinions on issue

general public vs. special publics- key

general public is when something applies to everyone, special publics are segments of the public with views about particular issues -public opinion is different than that of groups: can be a composite of many opinions or the main tendency

Reception Axiom

greater a person's level of cognitive engagement with an issue, more likely they will be exposed to and comprehend political messages concerning the issue

Statistical significance

it is statistically significant if the numbers of the margin of error dont overlap

Zaller: awareness and susceptibility to persuasion based on rankings

low political awareness cant be persuaded, moderate can, high cant---- ITS A UPSIDEDOWN U

difference is not statistically significant if

margins of error overlap

Heuristics

mental shortcuts used for processing and understanding information- can be used to decide who to vote for or whether to support or oppose a policy

RAS model micro and macro implications

micro- individual opinion statements expressed within a survey macro- mass opinion as shaped by political communication, which is mostly elite discourse and media coverage

Kinder on ideology

most Americans are ideological innocents- no sophisticated ideological framework. they do have political opinions -preferences of modest scope -some true opinions some non-attitudes -some issues on which many americans feel strongly, others which appeal to narrow issue publics -"fragmented, narrow, and diverse"

Nonattitudes

non-genuine opinions about topics too remote from citizen's concerns -political opinions that are fleeting, not well considered, or lack meaning for the people who hold them -misleading portrait of public opinoin -Zaller's opinion statements -Lippman's pseudo environments

difference between public and private opinion- key

opinion is public if it deals with a matter of public concern -public opinion includes national morale

heat map

participants view an image or document and select the areas that most catch their attention.

Resistance Axiom

people resist arguments that don't align with their political beliefs, but they have to know enough about the argument to know the relationship between the argument and their allignment

illegitimate non-probability samples

pseudo-polls radio or tv opt-in polls allowing poeple to put themselves in a poll makes them a part of group that wanted to do that/ was exposed to the question

ROBO-Polls IVR what is pluses minuses/ limits

recorded voice rather than live interviewer respondents answer by punching phone keys or stating answers PLUSES -save $, remove interviewer, more honest answers MINUSES/LIMITS -basic questions, conservative tilt, remove interviewers, lower response rates

Relative vs. Absolute

relative is compared to other options (ranking) and absolute is independent (rating)

CLASS 4 SUMMARY

sampling -key is sample looks like a microcosm of the universe -probability sampling remains the standard, but some challenges as move to the internet mode -phone surveys w/ landline and cell are still the norm, but changing to online -online surveys are mostly non-probability sample but if still representative does that matter? questionnaire design/ result analysis -ideally multiple questions to get a true picture of opinion on a topic -differnt format for telephone and online

triangular relationship of public opinion

scene of action, the human picture of that scene, and the human response to that picture

Interviewer effect- factors

skill of the interview matters a lot in terms of participation and completion -gender -status -race/ ethnicity -region (dialect, accent)

legitimate Non-probability samples

snow-ball sampling -go around interviewing people testing survey questionnaires -only people learning about are those actually in the survey cant calculate margin of error

Zaller's definition of (political) predispositions

stable individual level traits that may affect individuals reaction of political communication

Converse's definition of constraint

the degree to which a particular belief is predictive of another belief

conclusion converse comes to

the mean is very low but the variations are very broad

Accessibility Axiom

the more recently a consideration has been called to mind or thought the less time it takes to retrieve that consideration or related ones and bring them to the top of the head

affective intelligence

there are two basic emotional systems that monitor an individuals environment and find the neural resources that match the situation. One relies on learned routines and the other relies on the novelty of the situation

People tend to make better choices when....

they have less information

Who is the public: Zaller

tri-level -political sophisticates -policy makers and the people that influence them -really active people -mass middle -in the know but not overwhelmingly active -pay attention through involvement and entertainment -people who cant name the vice president -pay no attention

Two categories for how effective a news story is

vivid and if its the lead vivid didnt really matter but lead was important

weighting data

weighting a representative sample to make it more representative of the universe. -ex: if sample is 10% black people, weigh them more slightly undersampled major if oversampled

Mainstream effects of elite communication on mass attitudes

when political elites agree on an issue, people receive one message and tend to agree with this position -especially those with greater political awareness

Polarization effects of elite communication on mass attitudes

when political elites disagree on an issue, public opinion tends to be polarized -esp. those with greater political awareness, whose attitudes will coincide with existing predispositions, esp. when elite disagreement falls along party or ideological lines

Pew paper assessing representativeness of phone public opinion surveys results

when they are weighted they provide accurate data on most political social and economic measures