Public Opinion and Polling

straw poll

informal method, biased, An unscientific poll that gathers the opinions of people who are conveniently available in a gathering place. an unofficial ballot conducted as a test of opinion.

sample

a subset of the population we use to make inferences about the population in general

tracking poll

Continuous surveys that enable a campaign or news organization to chart a candidate's daily rise or fall in support.

political socialization

Process of acquiring political beliefs. Influential factors include: family, education, church, media and peers.

margin of error

a measurement of how accurately the results of the poll reflect the "true" sentiment of the whole population. It is a statistical formulation of how well the sample (those voters who took the poll) reflects the general population (all voters). Pollster shoot for a margin of +/- 3%

push polls

polls that are designed to influence rather than measure respondents' opinions AAPOR defines a "push poll" as a form of negative campaigning that is disguised as a political poll. "Push polls" are actually political telemarketing - telephone calls disguised as research that aim to persuade large numbers of voters and affect election outcomes, rather than measure opinions.

loaded questions

questions designed to get a particular answer-Think "push poll"

scientific samples

random sample of 1400-1500 people to gauge the opinion of the entire nation, Representative of the entire population and can be generalized to the population

exit polls

short questionnaires administered, often by a consortium of news outlets, to samples a people who have just voted in selected precincts, Polls taken as people leave voting places. In the past, television networks sometimes used these polls to predict election outcomes before the polls close.