Public opinion final

11. What does the "end-heuristic" that Healy and Lenz identify refer to?

When talking about economic voting people want to evaluate performance on their entire length of there office and people tend to overweight there last year in office. What are things like now... it is an information shortcut looking at the end of a term for evaluations.

11. What are the various determinants of turnout?

a. *Demographics i. Age, race, income, education, etc. ii. *Predispositions 1. Trust, efficacy (internal and external) iii. *Social Networks 1. Who you know matters (e.g. Huckfeldt and Sprague 1995; Mutz 2002) 2. Are you in a "participatory" network, i.e. group of people\ iv. *Habit 1. Voting may actually be habit forming 2. Do it once, you're more likely to continue (e.g. Gerber, Green, and Shachar 2003) v. *Mobilization • 1. Candidates and campaigns can get people to the polls (e.g. Rosenstone and Hansen 1993) a. Through direct appeals and advertising 2. People are more engaged in close elections and more exciting ones 3. Negative ads? a. Demobilization (e.g. Ansolabehere et al. 1994) or mobilization (e.g. Jackson and Carsey 2007) i. Or it depends (Clinton and Lapinski 2004)

7. What factors have been identified as being particularly important for when campaigns will have an increased effect on the outcome of an election?

a. 1) The number of undecided voters i. The more voters have not made up their minds, the more influential campaigns will be ii. Typically, more numerous earlier rather than later in a campaign b. 2) The balance of resources among the competing candidates i. Factors such as campaign spending, advertisements in important media markets, and the amount of positive and negative news coverage impact the flow of information about candidates ii. When disparities between the candidates emerge, campaign activity can benefit the advantaged candidate

4. How is a voter's party identification related to campaigns?

a. 1. Influences how people perceive the world and process new information i.e. partisan perceptual screen. b. 2. Influences how people make political choices, i.e. voters who identify with a party are very loyal to that parties' candidates.

5. What does "the new South" refer to?

a. A "new south" emerged in the 70s and 80s, one less characterized by racism i. Bigotry and prejudice declined amoung souther whites ii. Generational replacement.

7. What do we mean when we refer to the media as a "gate-keeper"?

a. A particular role the media plays i. Priming ii. Framing iii. Agenda setting 1. The keeper of the gates they get to pick what is talked about.

3. How does economic performance relate to incumbent vote share?

a. A strong economy tends to keep the incumbent party in power, not always but usually. b. When the economy is good we keep them in when it is bad we kick them out.

8. What is symbolic ideology?

a. Again, the puzzle Ellison and Stimson are addressing is why so many Americans call themselves conservatives, yet the republican party and conservatives policies do not dominate.

3. What are three ways that the media influences public opinion?

a. Agenda setting: what gets covered b. Priming: what we think about c. Framing: how we think about things

3. What has been the typical ratio of people identifying as conservative and liberal?

2 to 1

2. Do more people tend to identify as conservative or liberal in the United States?

Conservative

1. What are the similarities and differences between gender and race?

Similarities i. Socially constructed ii. Central to how we think about ourselves and others iii. Represent relationships of ongoing inequality b. Differences i. Distribution in everyday life

4. When the rich and poor disagree, who tends to win out?

The rich

11. What does partisan loyalty mean in terms of voting?

a. Strongest predictor of a person's vote.

7. According to the authors do people typically prefer to cut spending for programs or increase taxes?

a. Americans prefer government spending over cutting taxes. b. When given a choice between increasing taxes and cutting spending on programs, larger government (at the operational level) nearly always wins out over lower taxes.

7. How does social desirability bias relate to the measurement of attitudes towards race and gender?

a. As society has changed, social desirability prevents outright hostility towards blacks i. But this does not mean racism has disappeared ii. Hidden prejudice

10. What is implicit bias?

a. Attitudes or stereotypes that affect our standing, actions, and decisions in an unconscious manner.

Why can Get-Out-the-Vote experiments be controversial? (Think Montana example)

a. Been argued they might potential influence the outcome of an election

3. What does it mean when we say that voters are predictable?

a. Behave based on social identities and their associated group interests, which limits the ability of the campaign to persuade them otherwise. i. E.g. black American ties to the democratic party, white evangelical Christian ties to the republican party.

8. What is Brady, Verba and Schlozman's (1995) resource model of voting?

a. Brady, Verba, and Schlozman (1995) argue that political participation is influenced by more than just wealth, education and SES (socio-economic status) b. That people develop civic skills through education and other organizations this gives the confidence to participate in politics and need money to donate

11. What factors did Lax and Phillips identify as having the largest influence on state policy outcomes?

a. Come from legislative professionalism, term limits and salience.

5. Is there scholarly consensus on elite polarization? Mass polarization?

a. Consensus for elite polarization b. No Consensus for mass polarization

5. Overtime, the length of presidential sound bites presented in the media has decreased/increased/stayed about the same?

a. Decreased, used to be 40 seconds in length now its 6 to 8 seconds. i. Given media commentators to give more analysis of what the person says.

7. What are the various forms of evidence of mass polarization?

a. Difference in sociocultural characteristics b. differing world views or moral visions c. opposing positions d. Voting behavior and candidate evaluation. e. Difference in where people live.

11. Compared to differences between white Americans and minority Americans, differences in the preferences between men and women are smaller/larger/about the same?

a. Differences between racial groups are bigger than the differences between men and women

3. What do we mean when we say there is a racial divide and a gender gap?

a. Differences between racial groups are bigger than the differences between men and women b. This is what we refer to when there is a racial divide but a gender gap.

2. According to rational choice theory, should anyone vote? Why or why not?

a. Early economic studies, assume (to simplify the world) that people are rational b. They consider how much "utility" they get from different actions c. And then choose the one that gives the largest benefit

2. How does economic voting relate to democratic accountability?

a. Economic voting has been an essential role in shaping democratic accountability refers to the many ways in which citizens, political parties, parliaments and other democratic actors can provide feedback to, reward or sanction officials in charge of setting and enacting public policy.

13. What is the strongest determinant of turnout?

a. Education is the strongest determinant of voter turnout, the most common form of political participation i. Why might this be the case? • ii. Does education cause turnout? Or is education a proxy for some other factor(s)? b. Age also influences turnout i. Older people vote at much higher rates than the young ii. Possible curvilinear relationship 1. At some point, the influence of age on turnout may weaken iii. Turnout is also stratified by income (e.g. Leighley and Nagler 2013) 1. The wealthy participate at higher rates; Why does this matter?

9. Based on the results of their research, which theories do Gilens and Page argue best represent American politics?

a. Elite domination and biased pluralism

11. What role does the media play in Zaller's RAS model?

a. Elite information is important for influencing opinion i. If effects depend on 1. Political awareness and political predispositions.

10. What are some of the potential mass consequences of elite polarization?

a. Elite polarization has led to increase recognition of party differences and a heightened sense that the outcome of elections matters.

10. Campaign spending is arguably more important for what types of elections.

a. For candidates in elections for state legislatures, supreme courts, and city councils. b. They attract little media attentions i. Voters are not likely to see, hear, or read anything about challengers unless it come from their campaign.

7. How do the mechanisms driving dynamic representation vary across branches of government according to Stimson, MacKuen, and Erikson's results?

a. For the house of reps it was found that rational participation was the main driver for policies and outcomes to think about what will people want in the future. In the senate it was told to be more of an electoral replacement so people who are voted out or in based on the election. For the president public opinion mattered. For the supreme court it was more insulated from public opinion.

12. Have evaluations of economic performance been found to be more important when an incumbent is or is not running for office?

a. Found the economic evaluation only influence vote choice when incumbent was not running.

2. What part of the U.S. constitution protects the media?

a. Freedom of the press in the US legally protected by the First amendment to the US constitution

5. What does the phrase "closet partisans" refer to?

a. Partisans that are in the closet about their ID they say they are independent but lean one side or the other.

6. Are people more likely to change their party identification or their issue positions?

a. Frequently, people follow their party's stance on the issues i. WE feel strong attachments to our political parties b. We also like to minimize cognitive dissonance i. Partisans will stick by their positions and a president of their party, when they are unpopular or potentially against their self-interes.

10. What are some examples of framing?

a. How something is characterized can influence how it is understood by audience b. ACA vs. Obama car c. Welfare vs. spending on the poor

5. Why would elected officials choose to increase benefits rather than lower taxes to influence economic performance?

a. Increasing benefits refers to things like social security benefits, which is immediate after elections and people would be like wow, I have more money in my pocket. If you try to decrease taxes it can take you a long time to see any difference. b. Its faster.

12. What has been the trend in the number of women serving in Congress?

a. Increasing, the 5 congress are more diverse in US history.

5. What is the difference between private and public opinion according to Stimson?

a. Individuals opinions are private opinion i. Measures of what people think and why b. While public opinion should be examined in the aggregate.

6. What is the Fairness Doctrine? Is it still in place?

a. Introduced by the FCC in the 1949 b. Requires broad cast stations to present both sides of an issue equally (or as equally as possible) c. Repealed in 1987

9. What does symbolic racism refer to?

a. Is a coherent belief system that reflects an underlying unidimensional prejudice towards any ethnicity.

12. According to Bartels (2002) why does partisanship matter?

a. It biases how we interpret information, people who have been given the same unbiased facts they evaluate things in different ways.

10. Why is partisanship so enduring?

a. It influences our views of the world

3. What does the "funnel of causality" refer to?

a. It is a temporal model of party ID so some things come first i. 1st: social demographic things ii. 2nd: party ID iii. 3rd: Issues iv. 4th: candidate image 1. Vote.

5. How does strength of party identification in the United States compare to other countries?

a. It tends to be stronger, but the parties themselves tend to be weaker

2. How does Fiorina (1981) conceptualize party identification?

a. Its there model of party idenficaiton the running tally, this idea that we have two running ideas one for the democratic and one for the republican party and evaluate their core performance and help influence voter choice.

12. How have peoples' symbolic associations with the term "liberal" changed since the 1960s?

a. Liberal = welfare and big government b. Increase associated with blacks minorities, corrupt labor unions, urban unrest, welfare, anti-war, and hippie counter culture.

10. What has the overtime trend been in liberal self-identification in the U.S.?

a. Liberal self ID declined and never recovered to its near 50 percent status.

What type of research design has been used to address social desirability bias?

a. List experiments.

2. What is the advantage of looking at aggregate as opposed to individual opinion?

a. Look at the whole instead of individual. b. Because aggregate opinion magically makes itself out to be a standardized norm. WE know most people don't have meaning full preferences about issues, they care about a few things. Taking the aggregate cuts out the non-real opinions.

7. What are the four traditions of political theory that Gilens and Page (2014) identify?

a. Majoritarian b. Elite domination c. Majoritarian pluralism d. Biased pluralism i. Found evidence to support the elite domination and bias pluralism.

8. What do these theories entail?

a. Majoritarian i. Majority rules b. Elite Domination i. Majority opinion and the "median voter" do not dictate policy ii. Those in elite positions of power and with greater economic resources dominate policy making. c. Majoritarian pluralism i. Groups rather than voters influence policy making ii. Interest groups are the primary actors in policy making d. Biased Pluralism i. Interest groups drive policymaking, but not in an egalitarian manner

1. What is the "miracle of aggregation"

a. Many people opinions are uninformed i. Attitudes, i.e. in favor or opposed to free trade policy will tend to be random 1. Some in favor and some opposed, some not sure ii. Mass opinion (thousands of people across hundreds of surveys) aggregates millions of opinions 1. Random errors (theoretically) cancel out and we are left with the true, informed, stable opinion 2. When you have a big enough sample size, and you sum random errors, then you get a true estimate out of it, i.e. true, stable opinion iii. The implication is that an informed electorate can emerge from seemingly irrational individual-level opinion

2. How does social organization relate to gender and race?

a. Men and women work together more intimately, interact all the time in homes b. Not the same for race, they have an increase to segregate themselves and makes greater social distance between race then men and women.

1. According to the Columbia school of party identification, what is the main influence on voting?

a. More sociological view of party identification we take group ques and social ques and that's what we use to develop our party ID.

1. What is the question/puzzle that Ellis and Stimson (2012) are looking to address?

a. Most people in the U.S. are conservative, yet democrats win political office quite often i. Why is this? 1. That's the question.

4. Overall, media coverage of the president tends to be positive/negative/neutral?

a. Negative information is more entertaining than positive information.

10. Two groups of people both groups shift in one direction is it polarization?

a. No the groups have to move in opposite directions to be polarization.

What are the "fundamentals" which people base their electoral decisions on?

a. Party Id, and economy.

1. How does The American Voter (Michigan School) define party identification?

a. Party identification i. Arguably the most important influence on political attitudes and behavior 1. Strong in the US also the UK ii. The American voter 1. An enduring, psychological attachment to a political party 2. Political parties are a symbol and attachment to a group.

9. What is the "minimal effects" model of media influence?

a. People pay little attention to the news b. Out vote choice and opinions are unlikely to change as a result c. Campaigns and the media tend to reinforce existing attitudes d. Based on interviews and observational data

1. How is the idea of "one person, one vote" related to political inequality?

a. People should have equal influences in politics b. But we know this isn't the case politics will out weight this as well as rich people preferences. c. They donate money more and know more

9. What is party sorting?

a. People sort themselves into the party that fits their views. b. Why we don't see liberal republicans or conservative democrats.

4. Why does partisanship matter?

a. Political parties are the way we make sense of the political world b. Crucial for elections and governing i. Would be nearly impossible without them

9. What is the difference in data regarding people's ideological self-identification pre- and post- 1970s?

a. Pre: the standard anes question of ideological self-identification was rarely asked b. Post: under 50% sharp decline post 1960s.

3. What does "dyadic representation" refer to?

a. Public opinion moves meaningfully over time, government officials sense this movement and react accordingly.

3. What is the Downsian model of voting?

a. Rational choice model b. Downsian model of voting R= (B)(P)-C+D i. R = total reward a citizen gains from voting ii. B = benefit from having preferred candidate win iii. P = perception that vote will change election outcome *(pivotality) iv. C = cost of individual in terms of voting (e.g. time, money, resources) v. D = psychic satisfaction one derives from voting c. All together is why people vote. d. As R, P, and D increase, more likely one is to vote. As C increases, less likely. e. However, in any large election P is likely to be most infinitesimally.

4. What does the idea of "linked fate" refer to?

a. Reflect a sense of belonging or conscious loyalty to the group. b. African Americans voting democrat

11. What are the four ways that campaigns matter? What do they entail?

a. Reinforcement i. Occurs when campaigns solidify the preferences of voters • ii. Voters may have a natural tendency to vote for one party but still be uncertain how they will vote in some elections iii. "Rallying the base" refers to campaigns' efforts at bringing these types of undecided voters back into the partisan fold b. Persuasion i. Involves changing the attitudes of people, especially leading them to switch their support from one party to the other ii. In highly visible elections such as presidential races outright persuasion is not very common iii. Voters may be persuaded based on their views towards specific policies or evaluations or candidates' personalities and physical attractiveness c. Priming i. Process through which campaigns can affect the criteria that voters use in making decisions ii. Candidates strive to make elections 'about' the issues that favor them, providing voters with information about those issues and helping voters link their own attitudes about those issues with their decision at the ballot box iii. Possibility of priming suggests how campaigns can matter even if elections are influenced by fundamental factors like the economy 1. The economy may not automatically be the most important criterion in a voters' minds 2. The candidate who is advantaged by the state of the economy, the incumbent when it is strong and the challenger when it is weak, will want to remind people about the economy and make it a more influential criterion 3. "The economy, stupid!" d. Mobilization i. Campaigns may impact elections by helping voters to register and get to the polls 1. Doesn't do a campaign any good to persuade a voter to support a candidate if the voter then stays home on election day ii. Also referred to as "Get-Out-the-Vote" (GOTV) or the "ground game" iii. Candidates may use extensive databases of information about voters in order to target those who are likely to support them iv. Higher levels of campaign spending in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races are associated with higher turnout, particularly during midterm elections (Jackson 2002)

4. What is the difference between policy responsiveness and congruence?

a. Responsiveness: preferences change we get a change in policy b. Congruence: majority of people want something do we have that policy.

14. What was the purpose of the Streb et al. (2010) study?

a. Seek to examine how people actually feel about a women serving as president.

10. According to Healy and Lenz (2013) what do people intend to do when evaluating economic performance?

a. Show through a series of experiments that voters tend to more heavily weigh election year growth i. It's more recent and "accessible" in memory ii. "Availability heuristic" and "end-heuristic" b. If you give them information about all four years, they will use it to make their decisions

4. What is the social psychological model of voting?

a. Social Psychological model of voting i. Likelihood of voting = (motivation x ability)/Difficulty of voting ii. An individual's decision of vote is a multiplicative function: likely not one single factor which determines voting propensity iii. Where might motivation come from? 1. Strong preference for a candidate 2. Civic duty obligation 3. Social pressure/norms. iv. Ability: persons capacity to make sense of political information to arrive at caudate preference and be eligible to vote legally. v. Difficulty: aspects of conditions external to voters which limit probability of voting (e.g. strict registration laws; closeness of precinct)

6. What do we mean by pocketbook voting? Sociotropic voting?

a. Sociotropic" voting - voting based on the perceived health of the national economy i. More common among *low politically sophisticated individuals ii. These people tend to assume that the national economy is entirely in the President's hands b. Pocketbook voting - voters assess candidates based on their personal economic well-being i. More common among relatively *high politically sophisticated individuals ii. These people are able to make the associative linkage between changes in their personal financial status and governmental policy

9. Does campaign spending matter more for challengers or incumbents?

a. Spending matters more for challengers as fewer voters know them b. Challengers with more money to spend become better known than poor challengers.

6. What does polarization entail?

a. Standard dictionary emphasizes the simultaneous presence of opposing or conflicting principles, tendencies, or points of views. b. The division between citizens.

6. Where does the motivation to vote come from?

a. Strong preference for a candidate b. Civic duty obligation c. Social pressure/norms

12. What has experimental evidence shown may affect voters' decisions?

a. Television campaign advertisements have a large and statistically significant effect on voter preferences but the effects of the advertisements dissipate rapidly.

9. What are institutional factors that affect the relationship between opinion and policy

a. Term limits b. Salient c. Legislative professionalism i. What level of resources or quality of resources do legislatures have.

6. What do Kuklinski, Cobb, and Gilens (1997) conclude about the new South?

a. That southern whites remain racially prejudiced i. Cast doubt on the "new south thesis"

8. According to Gomez and Wilson (2001) how does political sophistication relate to retrospective voting?

a. The ANES frequently asks people their views on their personal financial situation and the national economy over the past year b. The national economy seems to be much more powerful in terms of vote choice rather than personal, "pocketbook" voting i. Why? c. Gomez and Wilson (2001) argue that it's a matter of how we attribute blame i. Who is responsible for the state of the national economy? • ii. Can we connect the government to the national economy? iii. Who is responsible for your personal financial situation? iv. Can we connect the government to our "pocketbooks?" d. The authors argue that sophistication (knowledge about politics) influences how we attribute blame for the economy, and thus how we vote

5. What is the voting paradox?

a. The Downsian Model and Calculus of Voting (Riker and Ordeshook 1968) suggest a paradox b. Rationally, people should not vote... yet they do i. Why? 1. Perhaps people are not perfectly rational 2. Or turning out to vote really isn't that costly (Aldrich 1993)

8. How does campaign spending relate to Congressional elections?

a. The more candidate spends, the more voter they receive.

1. What role does the media play in a democracy?

a. The press is often considered to be the fourth branch of government b. Holds politicians accountable c. Informs the public

2. According to the Michigan school of party identification, what is the main influence on voting?

a. The psychological view of party identification, our parents passed down our party ID to us and we psychologically attachment to the party and we keep voting for that party overtime.

5. What is operational ideology?

a. The sum total of one's preferences regarding the proper scope of government role at the level of particular social problems and values.

1. What does economic voting refer to?

a. Theory that the notion of voters is to pick the candidate on the basis of their economic influence.

8. What has been the trend of people saying they identify as independents?

a. There are more people they identify as independent

7. What are reasons some people don't vote?

a. They cannot i. Lack of resources b. They don't want to i. Lack of psychological engagement c. Nobody asked i. Lack of mobilization

6. What factors have been identified as being particularly important for predicting the outcome of elections?

a. They don't approach elections as blank slates, they come in and know their preferences.

9. What do we know about independent "leaners"?

a. They tend to lean more toward one side.

9. What are the three main types of political participation that the authors identify?

a. They type of "resources" that you have influence the type of participation that you engage in i. • Income campaign/candidate donations ii. Civic skills turnout iii. Time Volunteering for campaigns

12. ***What are the three forms of media that the textbook identifies?

a. Traditional media: things like newspapers, radios b. New media: social media, blogs, cable tv c. Entertainment media: talk shows.

15. Has turnout increased, decreased, or stayed about the same since the 1960s? Is this surprising?

a. Turnout has decreased since the 1960s i. Despite much higher levels of overall education ii. Result of more ineligible people (e.g. McDonald and Popkin 2001) 1. VAP (voting age population) vs. VEP (voting eligible) 2. The states decide who is and is not eligible to vote a. • U.S. Constitution only says over 18 and a U.S. citizen 3. Turnout is always higher in presidential election years a. Why?

13. What was the purpose of the Gerber, Gimpel, Green, and Shaw (2011) study? What was the context?

a. Two main drivers behind their study, Wanted to see how did television radio advertisements affect the outcomes of peoples opinions and how long lasting are these effects.

14. How does turnout in the United States compare to other industrialized countries? Why is this?

a. US voter turnout is low, compared to many other industrialized countries i. One reason for this is that the U.S. has high barriers to registration 1. Cannot vote unless you are registered; These requirements vary by state. b. The U.s. also has lots of elections i. People can get fatigued c. Voting is completely voluntary here i. Burden is on the individual d. Unions are weak (and have gotten weaker) in the U.S. i. Deprives people of a source of mobilization, particularly the ess educated and less wealthy.

4. What are the two components of policy preferences?

a. Valence: good education; overwhelmingly supported, there is no constituency favoring bad or mediocre education b. Position: should government spend less, the same, or more in pursuit of good education.

8. What does "affective polarization" refer to?

a. We dislike people from the other party more.

10. What do Lax and Phillips (2012) mean when they refer to a "democratic deficit" in the states?

a. We have policies in the state that are congruent with majority of opininon less than 50% of the time.

14. How does selective exposure relate to media consumption?

a. We like and seek out information that we agree with b. Enormous selection of media c. Social media d. WE can seek out information that we want and reject information we don't.

1. Why is turnout important for a democracy?

a. We live in a democracy • i. But we do not make policy directly (for the most part) ii. We elect people to make our laws iii. ***Who shows up to vote decides who gets into office and which party makes public policy. iv. Political equality assumes "one person, one vote" 1. But not everyone votes!

2. Research has identified policy to be more closely aligned to the preferences of what types of people?3. Why might this be?

a. Wealthier people dominate the political process a. Vote at higher rates, donate to campaigns at higher rates, are more informed about politics. b. Tend to get what they want.

8. What is the thermostatic model of policy responsiveness?

a. When policy becomes too extreme i.e. government is doing "too much" with health care, the public tends to adjust by shifting their opinion in a more conservative direction.

5. What does "status-quo bias" refer to?

a. When we have a policy, we tend to have that policy for a while. i. Bias toward maintaining status quo and not change policy.

9. How does institutional design affect economic evaluations?

a. Who holds power (and whether is it shared) can influence economic voting? i. In federal and presidential systems, power is shared.

6. Why do Ellis and Stimson argue that people are operationally liberal?

a. Why does the public tend to favor "more government" and "more spending"? i. Self interest 1. What in it for me a. Can be thought of broadly 2. We want government benefits for ourselves, our families, and our communities.

13. Other than election, what was a common way that women came to serve in Congress?

a. Widows recession

2. What are examples of some famous campaign ads in the U.S.?

a. Willie Horton b. Daisy c. Its 3:00 am.

8. Is the media inherently biased? Why or why not?

a. Yes, they choose what they want to talk about and pick a side.

6. What does policy mood refer to?

a. is a time series measure of public support for government programs on the liberal-conservative continuum

10. Where do political "resources" come from?

i. Some from education, some from SES, but others through organizations that develop civic skills 1. E.g. churches, unions, and voluntary associations ii. Basically, some political acts require money, others do not 1. Just looking at SES misses this crucial fact

3. What does a "running tally" refer to?

ii. Party identification as a "running tally" based on evaluation of the incumbent

6. Other than income-based, what is another type of inequality?

racial groups

4. Compared to other countries, American political parties are stronger/weaker/about the same?

weaker

7. Do people tend to "vote their pocketbook"?

yes