Public Opinion

Partisan identification acts as a perceptual screen

-Bush vs. Gore -Clinton's Impeachment -WMDs

Why is knowledge of politics very low among voters?

-Difficult to understand. -Not interesting. -Lack of efficiency. -Difficult to acquire information. -Knowledge of politics is not distributed evenly among the population. -Informed opinion matters! -Informed people tend to be strong partisans.

Effects of Public Opinion:

-Does public opinion influence government policy? -YES -Political leaders pay attention, spend lots of money and time probing it, and trying to manipulate it. -In a democracy leaders benefit from heeding public opinion. -Research demonstrates that opinion matters -Changes in public mood are followed by changes in policy -Public Opinion shapes votes cast by MC's -Limitations -There remain areas where policy and public opinion diverge. -Framers designed American political institutions to insulate government from popular pressure. -Not everyone's opinion matters equally. -Issue Publics -Co-partisans -Wealthy

Contemporary examples of bad polls?

-Internet Polls. -Mail counts in Congressional & White House Offices. -Television call-in polls. -Straw Polls

What policies do we usually associate with liberals?

-Pro-Choice -Progressive taxation -Environmental Protection -Social welfare programs -Less likely to support Military intervention

What policies do we usually associate with conservatives?

-Pro-life -Lower taxes -"Traditional" values -More likely to support Military intervention -Oppose regulation of economy

How do we measure Public Opinion?

-Usually through opinion polls -Before opinion polls? *Elected officials would talk to people. *Reading the press. *Political markets. *Read bathroom walls.

Can Public Opinion be manipulated by the media, politicians and political campaigns?

-Yes & No -Difficult because many of the factors that contribute to opinion formation cannot be manipulated. -But can be manipulated through Framing. *Provides a context that affects the criteria citizen's use in forming an opinion. EX: Clintons Impeachment Same-sex marriage

What are the ORIGINS of Public Opinion?

1. Common fundamental values 2. Political Socialization 3. Attitude 4. Ideology

What are some potential problems with public opinion polling?

1. Sampling error -Results from a small sample. -A good poll Typically has a size of 450-1,500 respondents. -Tradeoff between costs and degree of precision. 2. Selection bias -Occurs when a sample systematically includes or excludes people with certain attitudes. *Surveys must include a representative sample. -Random Sample: A sample in which every member of population has an equal chance of being selected. -Limitations? *No single directory with everyone in it. *Many people will not answer pollster's questions. *Not everyone can be reached by phone. *Some people have more than one phone. 3. Measurement Error -Error that arises from attempting to measure something subjective. 4. Confusing questions: The Holocaust Poll Fiasco -Roper Survey *"Does it seem possible, or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?" *22% said they thought it was possible that the Nazi extermination never happened. *12% were unsure -Gallup Poll *"Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of Jews never happened, or does it seem certain to you that it happened." 5. Leading Questions -Difference in responses when asked about "welfare" vs. "assistance to the poor" 6. Oversimplified Questions -EX: Abortion; LA Times Poll late 80's 7. Push Pulling (the worst variant). -Not a Random Sample -Mildest forms are supposed to remind voters of a particular issue -The truth is often fabricated. -Intended to change, not measure opinions. -"Would you be more or less likely to vote for Candidate X if you knew (fill in the blank). EX: "If you knew Lamar Alexander had raised taxes six times in TN, would you be more or less inclined to vote for him?" "Do you support the Barrack Obama health plan that requires all tax payers to fund abortions?"

What is Public Opinion?

Aggregation of people's views about issues, situations, & public figures. PO is different from values & ideology, but shaped by. Normatively, we believe public should shape outcomes. V.O. Key: "those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed." -Elections -Expressed vs. latent opinion Different from values and ideology.

Ideology

Complex, interrelated set of beliefs [lecture recording] Organized set of political attitudes [Logic 443] Promote consistency among political attitudes by connecting them to something greater, a more general principle or set of principles. In practice, ideologies often combine attitudes linked more by coalitional politics than by principle.

Who has the advantage in terms of Party IDs?

Democrats have an advantage over Republicans in terms of party ID.

What are some common fundamental values?

Equality of opportunity- all individuals should be able to seek personal and material success in life, based on ability and effort opposed to privilege Individual freedom- The notion that gov. involvement in individual lives and property should be kept to a minimum Democracy- everybody [citizens only] should have an opportunity to partake in electoral and policy making process, people should have a say in how they are governed. Free Market Economy- economy that is not controlled and run by gov.

What are some agents of socialization?

Family -Children tend to absorb views of parents. Social Groups -Gives individuals important experiences and perspectives. *Race and Gender -Groups attempt to influence members *Unions *Churches -Groups have different objective political interests *Younger vs. older voters

Liberals

Favor extensive gov. action to redress social and economic inequalities. Advocate policies benefiting the poor, minority groups, the environment, and women. Less likely to support military intervention

Conservatives

Favor small or limited gov. -an unfettered free market, self-reliance, and traditional social norms

Is Public Opinion Meaningful:

Most Americans are politically ignorant & hold inconsistent views -Individual opinions may be badly informed & unstable BUT...Aggregate public opinion is stable and coherent. -Distribution of aggregate opinion tends to be highly stable. When change occurs, it reflects historical trends or changed conditions. When aggregated, measurement errors tend to cancel one another out. Public opinion is given rationality and coherence by opinion leaders. -This does not mean that people are easily manipulated by elites. People can and do rely on cognitive shortcuts.

Latent Public Opinion

Opinions that may be formed should a new issue come onto the agenda -How might people feel

Attitudes

Organized and consistent manner of thinking, feeling, and reacting with regard to people, groups, and social issues Most people's political attitudes are loosely structured and inconsistent. People vary in terms of the strength of their attitudes.

What are some other agents of Socialization?

Other Agents of Socialization Education -Differences in educational attainment associated with differences in political outlook EX: Gender Tolerance -Educational differences also affect participation Prevailing political conditions. -Conditions under which individuals & groups are recruited and involved in political life matter EX: Southern Italian Immigrants White southerners following Civil War New Deal Era

Partisanship and Ideology

Partisanship and Ideology are strongly correlated, but they are NOT the same thing. The correlation between the two has grown over time.

How strong are these ideological labels?

Policy positions often associated with ideological labels do not have a strong logical connection. The meaning of these labels changes over time. Liberal and Conservative labels do not guide the thinking of many Americans. -Many do not even understand the distinction. -Important predictor of political behavior, especially among politically knowledgeable voters.

How do we know they are shared?

Political Speeches But, agreement on values is not absolute and these values are not always put into place.

Two interpretations of partisanship

Psychological phenomenon Short Cut (practical)

Polls are not infallible

Sometimes pollsters they "guess" incorrectly about who will turnout. -EX: Polls prior to the election of Jesse Ventura as governor of Minnesota. Sometimes respondents are dishonest. -Political correctness effect. Poorly designed -Most famous is Literary Digest presidential poll conducted in 1936.

Expressed Public Opinion

Those opinions that have already been conveyed to elected officials

Why is attention paid to public opinion?

b/c officials have to stand before the people for re-election. [principle-agent] <-However, strength of relationship is questionable because many people don't' pay attention to politics and may not really know what gov. is doing Still, even dictators find it prudent to heed Public Opinion for fear of being tossed out of office through non-electorate means.