Unit 2 Module 4

What do we call the tendency to exaggerate the correctness or accuracy of our beliefs and predictions prior to testing? a. Hindsight bias b. Overconfidence c. Critical thinking d. Skepticism e. Reliability

B

After the student council election, a friend tells you he has known for weeks who would be elected president. What does this seem to illustrate? a. Skepticism b. Critical thinking c. Hindsight bias d. Overconfidence e. Perceiving order in random events

C

While taking a standardized test with randomly scrambled answers, you notice that your last four answers have been "c." Which of the following is true concerning the probability of the next answer being "c"? a. It is higher. Once a streak begins, it is likely to last for a while. b. It is lower. Since answers are distributed randomly, "c" answers become less common. c. It is unaffected by previous answers. It is as likely to be "c" as any other answer. d. You should check your previous answers. Four "c's" in a row is impossible. e. It is higher. Test constructors trick students by keeping the same answer many times in a row.

C

Aziz has read that handwriting reveals important details about personality. Explain how each component of the scientific attitude can help Aziz investigate the accuracy of the information he has read about handwriting analysis.

Curiosity can help Aziz to get the initial drive, or motivation, to investigate his question of handwriting analysis. Skepticism will prevent Aziz from accepting any ideas he hears that do not have sufficient supporting evidence. Humility will help Aziz realize that his ideas may not be correct and that he might have to accept another explanation for handwriting effects on personality.

Name the three components of the scientific attitude. Provide an example to show how each component contributes to the investigation of competing ideas in psychology.

Curiosity, or passion to explore, leads us to questions we want to investigate. Any examples of such questions will serve (For example, Does more money make us happier? Is schizophrenia inherited?). Skepticism keeps us from accepting ideas without sound support. The work of The Amazing Randi would be a good example here. Humility keeps us open to the possibility of changing our ideas when they are not supported by the data. For example, "the rat is always right."

Which of the following is an example of hindsight bias? a. Tom is certain that electric cars will represent 80 percent of vehicles in twenty years and only reads research studies that support his hypothesis. b. Liza underestimates how much time it will take her to finish writing her college application essays and as a result fails to meet an important deadline. c. Experts predicting world events with 80 percent confidence turned out to be correct less than 40 percent of the time. d. Marcy cannot recognize a definition on a flashcard. After turning the card over and viewing the term, she tells herself she knew what the answer was all along. e. Dr. Grace overestimates how effectively her new treatment method works because she fails to seek out any evidence refuting her theory

D

How does the scientific attitude contribute to critical thinking?

The scientific attitude combines (1) curiosity about the world around us, (2) skepticism toward various claims and ideas, and (3) humility about one's own understanding. Evaluating evidence, assessing conclusions, and examining our own assumptions are essential parts of critical thinking.