World Civilizations Study Guide 4

What are negative feedback loops? What are positive feedback loops?

Feedback loop is when one thing has a direct effect on another thing, which then has effect on something else, which has an effect on the original thing. This creates a cycle, or "loop". A negative feedback loop is a feedback cycle that provides balance and steadiness. It's when one aspect of the loop counteracts the effects of the others. A positive feedback loop is a loop that builds on itself. One thing happens, which then has a direct effect on another, and builds off of it and increases the effect, instead of reducing or reversing it. Positive feedback loops simply make things faster.

While the modern revolution was a blessing to many, it was also destructive to others. Why

For the same reason the Columbian exchange was a blessing for many and a curse to others. Whenever there is a massive change in societies, such as the modern revolution, there will be good aspects and bad aspects; some people will see it as a blessing, and others as a curse. Some of the problems that arose with the modern revolution are things like disease. America and Australia witnessed this as afro-eurasians, who were immune to many sicknesses, brought sickness to their land, which led to mass death and sickness in a short time. In addition to this, slavery became a huge industry, leading to the deaths of many slaves.

What is fundamentalism?

Fundamentalism is a form of religion that upholds strict literal interpretation of scripture. We see this among religions such as Islam and Protestant Christians. It began in the late 19th century and early 20th century among British and American Protestants.

What is futurology?

Futurology is a profession dedicated to the prediction of the future based off of current trends.

What is globalization?

Globalization is the interaction and integration of the people, goods, companies, and governments of nations. It is a process driven by trade and investment, and is aided by collective learning. It has effects on the economy, environment, social systems, and the physical well-being of societies.

According to David Christian there has been three "drivers of change" throughout the modern revolution. These are Global Exchange Networks, Competitive Markets and Increased Use of Energy. Would you add anything else to this list

Honestly, no. The major reasons behind all rise in complexity has been because of the things listed above.

Which of David Christian's predictions do you agree with?

I agree with his belief that colonization style voyages will be the primary form of placing human settlements on Mars. In fact, we can already see this as space programs from around the world are looking into sending humans to Mars.

Make one prediction of how the world will be different when you are 70 years old?

I believe that there will be a massive overhaul to the public school system, and that online schooling will be a very viable alternative to physical school, or perhaps even the main source. I also believe that driverless cars will be everywhere, and the main system of travel.

Which of David Christian's predictions do you disagree with?

I disagree with his belief that the earth cannot sustain more than 10 billion people. If we all continue living the way we are, I agree with him. However, if we've learned anything from the study of human history, it's that people change. Because of this, I think it is entirely possible to sustain 10 billion people, given the proper technology and understanding.

Why do many historians and scientists believe we have left the Holocene era and entered the Anthropocene?

If we were to be official, we would say that we are living in a geological epoch known as the Holocene era. We've been in this era since the ending of the last ice age a little over 11,000 years ago. However, there's a huge push for our current era to be called the Anthropocene era. They believe we have entered this era due to the effect that humans are having on both the planet and the species that live on it. Heavy pollution, agricultural changes to the earth, and species extinction due to man all play a role in why they want to change it. The extinction of 8.7 species on the planet. The pre-anthropocene rate of extinction was one species per year per million species. This has accelerated 100-1,000 times the norm.

What is the ultimate destination of the universe?

In a few billion years star formation will stop. Pretty soon after the Second Law of Thermodynamics will reign supreme, and complexity will cease to arise. A few thousand billion years after this the universe will go completely dark. Bang. Matter will begin to decay, and black holes will began to disappear, and at the end of it all, the last matter will turn into black holes which will evaporate one final time.

What conditions and ingredients combined together to create the modern revolution?

Ingredients: Increasingly large exchange networks New energy resources Conditions: Globalization Unification of the four worlds zones New complexity: A globally connected human society

Hypothesize the ingredients and conditions that came together to create Industrial Age?

Ingredients: The steam engine Increasing demand of coal Conditions: Freer political institutions Small population This required new technology to be created in order to supplement for the lack of workers New complexity: The Industrial Revolution

Is capitalism necessary for the development of liberal democracy?

One of the most fundamental right that humans have is that of property, and without that right, it becomes much easier for governments to shift towards totalitarianism. Thus, I believe that in order to have a liberal democracy it is essential for the people to have a right to their property. Economic freedom is required for political freedom. Democratic socialism is still socialism.

What led to and created the 2008 global financial crisis?

Perverse incentive and moral hazard. Let's start at square one. Prospective homeowners wanted houses, so they got mortgages. The banks made sure they were giving mortgages to people whose risk of defaulting was low. However, third party institutions began buying the mortgages from the banks. They would buy bundles of hundreds, even thousands of mortgages from the banks. The banks would throw in equal parts "good" and "bad" mortgages to even out the risk of it being an unsuccessful bundle. The third party investors ate these up, and the banks needed to produce more. To do so, they began to lower their standards and qualifications for loans, handing out subprime mortgages. This created a massive bubble, and as bubbles have a tendency to pop, pop they did. This led to an influx of defaulting homeowners, which flooded the streets with new homes for sale. This increased the supply, and took down the demand, resulting in people having massive mortgages that were worth way more than their house was, leading to them ceasing their payment, and defaulting on purpose. It was just a lame deal in general. 0/10 would not recommend.

In philosophy, what is materialism?

Philosophical materialism is the opposite of philosophical idealism. It it the belief that the real world comes before the world of ideas, meaning that matter exists, and that our perception of the world is based off of this idea. Granted, our perception of things can be wrong, but it's usually right, as it's based off of a material world. Your belief in something doesn't make it true, but rather the physical world does. Because it is so, you think it is so.

What is the Reformation? How did it help spur the modern age?

Prior to the Protestant Reformation most of Europe was Roman Catholic, which meant that the Roman Catholic church had serious control or the entire continent. However, the protestant reformation completely destroyed roman catholicism's hold on Europeans, and split the religion into dozens of different denominations, leading to widespread literacy and religious freedom, all thanks to a man by the name of Martin Luther. You could absolutely make the case that the Reformation was more of a political revolution than a religious one. Why was Martin Luther so effective in his teachings? He was effective because of a new technology that had arisen in europe at this same time: the printing press. The printing press allowed Luther to get his message out to millions of individual listeners and print bibles in German, so that the masses could read it. Because his teachings reached such a broad audience, many of his listeners revolted against their current religious system, leading to a reformation is religion.

How has terrorism dominated warfare in the 21st century? Is this different from warfare in the 20th century?

Terrorism is the only way for the "little guy" to combat large states like the United States. Warfare in the 20th century had armies and countries; visible forces that we knew how to fight. However, terrorism is a totally different business. It's all about isolated incidents and attacks to drive fear into the hearts of citizens of different countries.

What is the sharing economy? In your opinion, why is it so successful?

The sharing economy is a socioeconomic system that revolves around the sharing of physical and intellectual resources, such as houses, apartments, cars, and tour guides. Companies built around the sharing economy include large names such as AirBnB, Lyft, Uber, and Vayable. Why is it successful? One reason could be that the past 100 years have been preparing us for this time. Billions of people having access to the internet, and widespread acceptance and support of entrepreneurship and small business has led to the perfect conditions and ingredients to create this new, highly successful sharing economy. Cheaper offers, better flexibility. It's better than the alternative.

What does positive feedback loops teach us about collective learning?

They teach us the reason history has seemed to "speed up" as time passes. In only a few hundred years we've made a massive leap in technology, popular governmental structure, science, and beliefs. This is because positive feedback loops are really just massive snowballs, leading to faster and faster advancements.

What is humanism?

This is a worldview that believes that it's up to humans, and not divine intervention, to create the good in the world. The name was coined by an anonymous author in 1765 to create a word for the the general love of humanity. This belief doesn't claim that you can't pray, or even believe in a deity, but rather that even if you do pray, it's up to human action to bring good to the world. It is a reliance on humans to create betterment in society. However, strict religious fundamentalists claim that humanists almost worship humans, and cast out belief and reliance on God.

How did technology begin to increase connectivity and collective learning during the Medieval and Early Modern ages?

With the increasingly complex learning networks came massive increases in the technology associated with communication and transportation. The invention of the printing press allowed for information to be written and distributed and incredible rates, leading to the learning networks becoming even more complex. Animals such as oxen, horses, and camels allowed trade networks like the Silk Road to be set up, which connected Europe with most of Asia in some way or another. You could find Roman coins clear out in China, and Persian royalty could order custom porcelain from China.

Why are mixed forms of government with checks and balances necessary for liberal democracy?

Without a mixed system of government the government will follow the kyklos cycle, moving from a "good" form of government to a "bad" form of government.

Why did rate of change increase so dramatically during the last 500 years? (David Christian sites 3 crucial reasons)

1) Breakdown of the borders and limitations between the four world zones 2) Increasing commerce in competitive markets 3) New sources of energy 4)Another fourth reason that could have applied would be the positive feedback loop that is collective learning.

What are the four key drivers of change, according to Laurence Smith, that will drive civilization northward?

1) Demographic migration; moving farther north as the north gets warmer. Following the wealth. 2) Increasing resource consumption 3) Climate change 4) Globalization

What are the trends and common predictions of the future?

1) Globalization 2) Technology increasing in complexity at an alarming rate 3) Human dominance of the environment 4) Terrorism being the dominant form of warfare.

What current trends seem likely to continue and even grow in the near future?

1) Globalization 2) Technology increasing in complexity at an alarming rate 3) Human dominance of the environment 4) Terrorism being the dominant form of warfare.

Why do experts believe that the population of the planet will top out at about 10 billion?

1) More children survive now than a few decade ago 2) Most children aren't needed for work 3) More women are educated and join the workforce 4) Family planning accessible to the vast number of people. 5) The more money a country has, the less kids. The higher mortality rate of kids between the ages of 0-15 results in twice as many kids as normal.

The Catalyst of imperialism was the need for more resources (coupled with terrible morality). But why were the Europeans able to colonize so much of the world?

19th century imperialism was driven by the the industrial revolution and having better technology than the countries the Europeans were conquering. Initially, Europeans weren't able to conquer Africa due to the fact that their horses were dying, their guns were practically useless, and the africans were fierce fighters. However, upon their return with better guns, steam engines, and the Maxim gun they were able to conquer most of Africa., as well as many other places around the world.

What evidence are we seeing already of Laurence Smith's predictions?

A large number of animals are moving farther north, resulting in new species like the pizzly bear. Plants and animals seem to diversify the farther north you go. People are migrating to northern countries like Canada, Norway, and Greenland.

What is an epistemology?

Epistemology, is a branch of philosophy that focuses on the study of knowledge, asking important questions in order to truly understand *what* knowledge really is.

What are the major differences in the economic theories of Adam Smith, Karl Marx and John Maynard Keynes?

Adam Smith was a huge advocate for capitalism and the free market. He believed that there was very little room for government interference, and that the "invisible hand" would take care of the economy. The invisible hand is an economical ideology that claims that the self interest of people can run the economy effectively. If you were to go buy a cup of coffee for $3, this would be a representative of the invisible hand. The cup of coffee is worth more than those $3 to you, and the $3 were worth more than the cup of coffee to the person selling it, making each person happy. Marx: Karl Marx was completely anti-capitalism. He believed that capitalism was simply the exploitation of the workforce for the benefit of the rich business owners. He believed that there should be no private property or inherited wealth, a steeply graduated income tax, governmental control of communication, transport, and banking industries, and that everyone should have access to free public education. Keynes: John Maynard Keynes understood that free markets don't fix themselves quickly, as it takes time for prices and wages to adjust. His solution for this was to have the government use monetary and fiscal policy to increase output and decrease unemployment, thus shortening the length of recession. He believed that the people should feel safe about their economy.

According to Hank Green, what is the projected future? What is the probable future? What is the possible future? what is the preposterous future? Write your own examples of each (not the ones found in the video).

Projected future: This is the future if everything continues to play out the way our current knowledge of them projects. Example: Over the next week I will study my tail off in order to complete all of my assignments, and will be prepared for finals. Probable future: This is a future that we know *could* happen, but isn't likely to. Example: Over the next week I will study my tail off in order to complete all of my assignments. However, I'll discover a hidden passion for videogames that has been buried my entire life, and leave all of my schooling to go pursue that. Possible future: This is a future that we don't even know is possible yet, we just have to bank on the fact that we will make new discoveries that alter the course of the future. Over the next week I will study my tail off in order to complete all of my assignments. However, right before I take my oral exam I'll discover a super pill that gives me infinite knowledge of the universe, I get a 420/100 on the final, and Adam Hailstone will hand over his position as mentor of World Civilizations to me. Preposterous future: This is a future that is completely outlandish and practically nonsense. However, we know via possible future that most things are possible. Example: In the next week, Adam Hailstone himself will show up at my doorstep and offer to suspend all finals and give me a 100% in the class. (Please)

What are the pros and cons of globalization?

Pros: 1) Increase in collective learning 2) Millions of people are pulled out of poverty 3) New kinds of energy, and uses for them 4) The death rate lowers significantly 5) Education is abundant Cons: 1) The developing world has harmful effects on the environment 2) A lot of the sources of energy we use are non-renewable 3) Accelerating extinction rate 4) Overpopulation is countries like China and India

What might be some of the issues with each? (try to use real world examples in your arguments)

Smith: Exploitation is a real thing. In the event that large corporations exploit the workforce, this can have massive adverse effects on the nation as a whole. We see this problem a lot during the late 1800's and early 1900's with the large trusts, poor work environment, and low pay. Another issue is that not everyone is going to become wealthy and successful. Though everyone has an equal playing field, becoming hugely successful requires a lot of risk, hardwork, and time. Marx: The USSR is a pretty big downside. The problem with Marxist belief is that it places the entirety of the welfare of the people in the hands of the government, and governments aren't necessarily the most trusted things. It takes away the drive for people to become hugely successful and wealthy by creating steep income taxes. Keynes: There's the belief that when the government takes care of everything, it is then responsible for everything as well, both the good and the bad. Thus, if Keynesian policies don't succeed, it would be on the government's head. You also have a ton of moral hazard associated with this, as business are more likely to take huge risks due to the fact that they are often protected from their consequences. Encourages a huge load of debt, and doesn't encourage savings. He stated that "in the long term we're all dead" and thus we should spend like crazy.

Why is social cooperation necessary for the development of liberal democracy?

Social cooperation isn't just needed for liberal democracy, but other political system as well. However, it is especially needed in liberal democracies. If the people, the citizens, of a liberal democracy didn't cooperate, then the government wouldn't work, since the entirety of it is based off of the principle of cooperation, and sacrificing your individual wants for the betterment of the society.

Why is wide spread education necessary for the development of liberal democracy?

Socrates actually talked a lot about this. He believed that Democracies downfall will come with the loss of education. He makes his case in a story, where he compares two candidates running against each other in a democratic government, one being the political representation of a candy shop owner, and the other being the political representation of a doctor. The candy shop owner promises sweets for everyone, promising nothing but the pleasantries the people wish for, and the doctor promises things that are unpleasant at first, but are better for you in the long run. If the society is uneducated, they will choose the candy shop owner, whereas if they're educated they'll choose the doctor.

Briefly Summarize the Cold War

The Cold War was more of an era than a war. Lasting from about 1945 through 1991, it was a time of great fear among the inhabitants of the world. The iron curtain (the line the USSR and the 1st world countries of Europe) descended in 1945, not to be lifted again until the last decade of the 20th century. After World War II, Germany was split up into two general sections: the east and the west. In 1948 the Soviet Union decided to cut off east Germany by shutting down the major roads connecting it to the East. However, the Berlin airlift took care of that problem, but in 1961 they fixed the problem altogether by putting up the Berlin wall. The first world countries became very concerned by how quickly Communism was spreading through the world, and they decided to settle on an anti-communist strategy we know today as containment. This is plan did exactly what you'd think: it contained communism. We did this by doing things like using the CIA to rig elections in countries where communist leaders stood a chance of getting elected, funding Western Europe rebuild through programs like the Marshall Plan, and founding NATO. One of the most important aspects of the Cold War was the nuclear arms race between the U.S. and Russia. America had the upper hand, as we had to rebuild virtually nothing on our homeland after World War II, and Russia had to rebuild not only its homeland, but also the satellite states it controlled. However, this didn't stop the USSR from building a very large nuclear arsenal, leading to close calls like the Cuban Missile Crisis and Able Archer 83. The Cold War ended in 1991 due to the rise of Mikhail Gorbachev, who brought openness to the USSR, and decreased the amount of censorship. The Berlin Wall came down in '89, East and West Germany reunited in '90, and the establishment of a non-communist government in Romania in '96.

Briefly summarize World War 1

The best way to describe the beginning of World War I is entangling secret alliances, especially in the Balkans. Russia, France, Germany, England, Belgium, they all had this in common. No one country had any idea what the others were up to, or what a war with one country would do to the rest. Because of this, after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo the entirety of the European continent plunged into one of the most influential wars in history. During the initial days of the war, Germany would prove to be the most problematic country in this whole situation. Germany's war plan, known as the "schlieffen plan" counted on Russia taking a long time to mobilize, attacking France as quickly as possible, and then diverting its forces to the Eastern front. However, since this plan included marching through Belgium, and trusting that they would back down, there were a lot of issues with it. Basically, nothing went right for them. England joined the war because of an alliance with Belgium, Belgium resisted, France turned out to be harder to beat than expected, and Russia mobilized a lot faster than they thought they would. One of the most interesting things about World War I is the obsession and romantic view of war. Prior to World War I, there hadn't been a war that had as much of an influence on countries, or as high a casualty rate. There are firsthand accounts of the men marching into battle, whistling, singing, and laughing. The men believed that even in the event that they were to die, they would have died a heroic death. However, they received a rude awakening during the early months of the war. They realized that this wasn't going to be a "fun" war. Due to the scale of this war, they soon realized that their deaths probably wouldn't count for anything. Officers inexperienced with this kind of battle would oftentimes march their armies right into a Maxim gun nest. Trench warfare included sending wave after wave of young men to die in no man's land. It was slaughter. A meat grinder, really. One of the most interesting things about what set this war off is that thirty years prior to the start of World War I, Otto von Bismarck, the famed military theorist, said that if and when war in Europe began, it would be because "some damned foolish thing in the Balkans" set it off.

What were the effects of the columbian exchange upon the Americas?

The effects were absolutely devastating. Roughly 90% of the indigenous people were wiped off the face of the Americas, due to infection, disease, and imperialism. But hey, they got horses, and we got potatoes, so there's that. Worth it for the indigenous? Probably not. Worth it for the future United States of America? Probably.

Briefly summarize World War 2

World War I sowed the seeds that allowed for World War II. After Germany's bitter defeat, their economy went through the floor. Adolf Hitler, a German and former soldier during World War I rose to power. He was able to play the emotions of the Germans people, promising to restore the country to its former glory. After taking over most of central Europe, parts of Eastern Europe, and signing a nonaggression pact with Russia, he began to focus his efforts on Great Britain. However, he never invaded via land. Sparking what was known as the Battle of Britain, he attacked using airplanes and bombs, wreaking havoc on the island. In 1941 Germany broke the nonaggression pact they had with Russia, and invaded. At the end of this same year, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, ushering America into the war, and leading to the official alliance of the Big Three: Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Over the next three years the Allies and Axis would fight all across the globe. Places including Northern Africa, Australia, The Pacific Islands, the Eastern front, and the Western Front. However, in 1944 the Allies launched a decisive attack on mainland Germany known as Operation Overlord. This absolutely devastated the Axis powers, and lead them to launch a last-resort attack that turned into the Battle of the Bulge. The Allies won. Adolf Hitler committed suicide in the early months of 1945,leading to the immediate downfall of Germany. A few months later America dropped two atomic bombs on mainland Japan.

If everyone on the planet wanted to live like the average North American, we would need six planets worth of resources. Humanity is living beyond sustainable limits. In your opinion, is this simply natural to every species and therefore inevitable, or can we collectively change and create a sustainable symbiosis with our planet and its resources?

Yes, and no. I believe that for the entirety of North America to collectively change, they must be given reason to that directly affects them or those very close to them, e.g., given physical motive. We see this in the past, with technological upgrades like the car, which allowed people to leave behind the inferior technology of the horse and buggy, and the use of mass steel with Eads Bridge that allowed everyone to move on from inferior building materials. In both these cases people were content with the things they had, and only changed when presented with a more comfortable and/or profitable alternative. Thus, I believe that in the *possible* future (as defined by Hank Green) we could shift to a more sustainable lifestyle if presented with more effective, efficient, and/or comfortable alternatives. In the *projected* future, I think it would be extremely difficult for North Americans to collectively change, unfortunately.

Is fundamentalism a reaction to humanism?

Yes.

What were some of the negative effects of the unification of all the world zones?

You have the same negative effects that occurred because of things like the Columbian Exchange, namely, disease and mass genocide of. The imperialistic drive of countries also lead to the destruction of the society's, traditions, and lives of civilizations and people that had lasted as long as life itself.