CH.8 Risk Management: identifying and assessing risk

Sun Tzu

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle"

Threat Identification

-Any organization typically faces a wide variety of threats -If you assume that every threat can and will attack every information asset The project scope becomes too complex -To make the process less unwieldy, each step in the threat identification and vulnerability identification processes is managed separately and then coordinated at the end

The TVA Worksheet threat vulnerability assessment worksheet

-At the end of the risk identification process, a list of assets and their vulnerabilities has been developed -Another list prioritizes threats facing the organization based on the weighted table discussed earlier -These lists can be combined into a single worksheet

Consequences and likelihoods are combined

-Consequences and likelihoods are combined ->Enabling the organization to determine which threats represent the greatest danger to the organization's information assets ->The resulting rankings can then be inserted into the TVA tables for use in risk assessment

Classifying and Categorizing Assets

-Determine whether the asset categories are meaningful -Inventory should also reflect each asset's sensitivity and security priority ->A classification scheme categorizes information assets based on their sensitivity and security needs ->Each of these categories designates the level of protection needed for a particular information asset -Some asset types, such as personnel, may require an alternative classification scheme that would identify the clearance needed to use the asset type -Classification categories must be comprehensive and mutually exclusive

threat identification

-Each threat presents a unique challenge to information security ->Must be handled with specific controls that directly address the particular threat and the threat agent's attack strategy -Before threats can be assessed in the risk identification process ->Each must be further examined to determine its potential to affect the targeted information asset --This process is a threat assessment

Identify Possible Controls

-For each threat and its associated vulnerabilities that have residual risk, create a preliminary list of control ideas -Three general categories of controls exist: ->Policies ->Programs ->Technical controls

Documenting the Results of Risk Assessment

-Goals of the risk management process ->To identify information assets and their vulnerabilities ->To rank them according to the need for protection -In preparing this list, a wealth of factual information about the assets and the threats they face is collected -Information about the controls that are already in place is also collected -The final summarized document is the ranked vulnerability risk worksheet

Percentage of Risk Mitigated by Current Controls

-If a vulnerability is fully managed by an existing control, it can be set aside -If it is partially controlled, estimate what percentage of the vulnerability has been controlled

Uncertainty

-It is not possible to know everything about every vulnerability -The degree to which a current control can reduce risk is also subject to estimation error -Uncertainty is an estimate made by the manager using judgment and experience

Likelihood and Consequences

-Likelihood and consequence rating ->Another approach ->From the Australian and New Zealand Risk Management Standard 4360i ->Uses qualitative methods of determining risk based on a threat's probability of occurrence and expected results of a successful attack ->Consequences (or impact assessment) are evaluated on 5 levels ranging from insignificant (level 1) to catastrophic (level 5), as assessed by the organization ->Qualitative likelihood assessments levels are represented by values ranging from A (almost certain) to E (rare), as determined by the organization

Assessing Potential Loss

-Questions to ask when assigning likelihood values -Which threats present a danger to this organization's assets in the given environment? -Which threats represent the most danger to the organization's information? -How much would it cost to recover from a successful attack? -Which threats would require the greatest expenditure to prevent? -Which of the aforementioned questions is the most important to the protection of information from threats within this organization?

Likelihood

-The overall rating of the probability that a specific vulnerability will be exploited ->Often using numerical value on a defined scale (such as 0.1 - 1.0) -Using the information documented during the risk identification process, you can assign weighted scores based on the value of each information asset, i.e. 1-100, low-med-high, etc

Documenting the Results of Risk Assessment

-What should the documentation package look like? -What are the deliverables from this stage of the risk management project? -The risk identification process should designate what function the reports serve, who is responsible for preparing them, and who reviews them

Creating an Inventory of Information Assets

1) Identify information assets -Includes people, procedures, data and information, software, hardware, and networking elements -This step should be done without pre-judging the value of each asset ->Values will be assigned later in the process

Threat Identification

1) Vulnerability Assessment: -Begin to review every information asset for each threat -This review leads to the creation of a list of vulnerabilities that remain potential risks to the organization ->Vulnerabilities are specific avenues that threat agents can exploit to attack an information asset -At the end of the risk identification process, a list of assets and their vulnerabilities has been developed -This list serves as the starting point for the next step in the risk management process - risk assessment

Assessing Values for Information Assets

1)Assign a relative value: -As each information asset is identified, categorized, and classified -Comparative judgments made to ensure that the most valuable information assets are given the highest priority 2)Relevant questions -Which asset is the most critical to the success of the organization? -Which asset generates the most revenue? -Which asset generates the highest profitability? -Which asset is the most expensive to replace? -Which asset is the most expensive to protect? -Which asset's loss or compromise would be the most embarrassing or cause the greatest liability?

Creating an Inventory of Information Assets

2)Inventory process requires a certain amount of planning -Whether automated or manual 3)Determine which attributes of each information asset should be tracked -Depends on the needs of the organization and its risk management efforts

Creating an Inventory of Information Assets

4)Potential asset attributes Name, IP address MAC address, asset type Serial number, manufacturer name Manufacturer's model or part number Software version, update revision, or FCO number Physical location, logical location Controlling entity

Creating an Inventory of Information Assets

5)Identifying people, procedures and data assets -Responsibility for identifying, describing, and evaluating these information assets should be assigned to managers who possess the needed knowledge, experience, and judgment -As these assets are identified, they should be recorded using a reliable data-handling process like the one used for hardware and software

Creating an Inventory of Information Assets

6)Sample attributes for people, procedures, and data assets -People ->Position name/number/ID ->Supervisor name/number/ID ->Security clearance level ->Special skills -Procedures ->Description ->Intended purpose ->Software/hardware/networking -elements to which it is tied ->Location where it is stored for reference ->Location where it is stored for update purposes -Data ->Classification ->Owner/creator/manager ->Size of data structure ->Data structure used ->Online or offline ->Location ->Backup procedures

Likelihood and Consequences

A Almost certain: is expected to occur in most circumstances B likely: will probably occur in most circumstances C possible: might occur at some time D unlikely: could occur at some time E rare: may occur only in exceptional circumstances

Deliverable: TVA worksheet

Combines the output from the information asset identification and prioritization with the threat identification and prioritization and identifies potential vulnerabilities in the "triples"; also incorporates extant and planned controls

Accountability for Risk Management

Communities of interest must work together Evaluating the risk controls Determining which control options are cost-effective Acquiring or installing the appropriate controls Overseeing processes to ensure that the controls remain effective Identifying risks Assessing risks Summarizing the findings

Risk Determination

Example -Asset A has a value of 50 and has one vulnerability, which has a likelihood of 1.0 with no current controls. Your assumptions and data are 90% accurate -Asset B has a value of 100 and has two vulnerabilities: vulnerability #2 has a likelihood of 0.5 with a current control that addresses 50% of its risk; vulnerability # 3 has a likelihood of 0.1 with no current controls. Your assumptions and data are 80% accurate -The resulting ranked list of risk ratings for the three vulnerabilities is as follows: ->Asset A: Vulnerability 1 rated as 55 = (50 × 1.0) - 0% + 10% ->Asset B: Vulnerability 2 rated as 35 = (100 × 0.5) - 50% + 20% ->Asset B: Vulnerability 3 rated as 12 = (100 × 0.1) - 0 % + 20%

Knowing Yourself

Identifying, examining and understanding the information and how it is processed, stored, and transmitted Armed with this knowledge, one can initiate an in-depth risk management program

Knowing the Enemy

Identifying, examining, and understanding the threats facing the organization's information assets -Must fully identify those threats that pose risks to the organization and the security of its information assets

Likelihood and Consequences

Level1 Insignificant Level2 Minor Level3 Moderate Level4 Major Level5 catastrophic

Example of each level

Level1 Insignificant : No injuries, low financial loss Level2 Minor: first aid treatment, onsite release immediately contained, medium financial loss Level3 Moderate: medical treatment required, onsite release contained with outside assistance, high financial loss Level4 Major: Extensive injuries, loss of production capability, offsite release with no detrimental effects, major financial loss Level5 catastrophic: death, toxic release offsite with detrimental effect, huge financial loss

Which of the following distinctly identifies an asset and can be vital in later analysis of threats directed to specific models of certain devices or software components?

Manufacturer's part number

In any well-developed risk management program, two formal processes are at work

Risk identification and assessment Risk control

Risk Identification

Risk identification begins with the process of self-examination -Managers identify the organization's information assets ->Classify them into useful groups ->Prioritize them by their overall importance

Risk management is a process

Safeguards and controls that are devised and implemented are not install-and-forget devices

Listing Assets in Order of Importance

The final step in the risk identification process is to list the assets in order of importance This goal can be achieved by using a weighted factor analysis worksheet

Risk Assessment

The goal is to create a method to evaluate the relative risk of each listed vulnerability

Risk management

The process of assessing the risks to an organization's information and determining how those risks can be controlled or mitigated

Deliverable: Information asset classification worksheet

assembles information about information assets and their impact on or value to the organization

Deliverable: weighted criteria analysis worksheet

assigns a ranked value or impact weight to each information asset

Deliverable: Ranked vulnerability risk worksheet

assigns a risk-rating ranked value to each uncontrolled asset-vulnerability pair.

The ____ community best understands threats and attacks that put an organization at risk.

information security

The ____ is an effective attribute for tracking network devices and servers, but rarely applies to software.

ip address

Managing risk

is one of the key responsibilities of every manager within the organization

should be avoided when identifying people assets.

names

Information security departments are created

primarily to manage IT risk

Risk is

the likelihood of the occurrence of a vulnerability multiplied (*) by the value of the information asset minus (-) The percentage of risk mitigated by Current Controls plus (+) the uncertainty of current knowledge of the vulnerability

Risk is the likelihood of the occurrence of a(n) ____ multiplied by the value of the information asset minus the percentage of risk mitigated by current controls plus the uncertainty of current knowledge of the vulnerability.

vulnerability

The final step in the risk identification process is to list the assets in order of importance. This goal can be achieved by using a(n) ____ worksheet

weighted factor analysis worksheet