Chapter 5: A Survey of Probability Concepts

Probability

A value between zero and one, inclusive describing the relative posibility an event will occur.

Collectively exhaustive

At least one of the events must occur when an experiment is conducted

general rule of addition

P(A or B)= P(A)+ P(B)-P(A and B)

Complement rule

P(A)= 1-P(~A)

Classical probability

Probability of event = number of favorable outcomes/ total number of possible outcomes

Prior probability

the initial probability based on the present level of information.

Independence

the occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of another event.

Conditional probability

the probability of a particular event occurring, given that another event has occurred.

Event

A collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment

Outcomes

A particular result of an experiment

Experiment

A process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one of the several positions.

Laws of large numbers

Over a large number of trails the empirical probability of a event will approach it's true probability

Special rule of multiplication

P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

General rule of multiplication

P(A and B)= P(A) P(B)

Special rule of addition

P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B)

Selective concept of probability

The likelihood of a particular event happening that is assigned by an individual based on whatever information is available

Mutually exclusive

The occurrence of one event means that none of the other events can occur at that time

Permutation

any arrangement of r objects selected from a single group of n possible objects.

Multiplication formula

if there are m ways of doing one thing and n ways of doing another thing, there are m X n ways of doing both.

Multiplication formula

total number of arrangements= (m)(n)

Empirical probability

The probability that an event happening is the fraction of the time events happened in the past

Joint probability

a probability that measures the likelihood two or more events will happen concurrently.

Posterior probability

a revised probability based on additional information.

Contingency table

a table used to classify sample observations according to two or more identifiable categories or classes.