Chapter 6 The Human Population and Its Impact | APES

cultural carrying capacity

maximum number of people who could live in reasonable freedom + comfort indefinitely, without decreasing ability of earth to sustain future generations

fertility rate

measure of how many children born in population over set period of time

migration

movement of people into (immigration) and out of (emigration) specific geographic areas - United Nations (UN) + Norman Myers → (2008) 40 million environmental refugees - UN → (2020) 50 million environmental refugees

If reached replacement-level fertility rate forr world, would it bring imemdiate halt to population growth?

no, number of future parents alive grown dramatically - if girl children grow up to have 2.1 children → population grow for 50 years or more (if death rates do not rise) because so many girls under 15 moving into reproductive years

infant mortality rate

number of babies out of every 1,000 born who die before first birth day - indicates insufficient food (undernutrition), poor nutrition (malnutrition), high infectious disease - affects TFR: low infant mortality rates → women fewer children because fewer children die at early age - declined since 1965 - 4 million infants die of preventable causes during first year of life - 1900: U.S. = 165 - 2012: U.S. = 6.0 a. 44th (inadequate health care for poor women during pregnancy + babies after birth; drug addiction among pregnant women)

crude death rate

number of deaths per 1,000 people in population in given year

crude birth rate

number of live births per 1,000 people in population in given year

age structure

numbers or percentages of males + females in young, middle, + older age groups in population

Population Change Formula

population change = (births + immigrants) - (deaths + emigrants)

demographers

population experts

3 Factors That Increases or Decreases Population

1) births (fertility) 2) death (mortality) 3) migration

__________ conclude human activities degraded about __________ of earth's ecosystem services.

2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; 60%

World's 3 Most Populous Countries

1) China (19% of world's population) 2) India (18% of world's population) 3) United States

(2012) 3 Nations with Largest Percentage of Population Age 65+

1) Japan 2) Germany 3) Italy - working adults shrinking to number of senior →slowing tax revenues

2 Problems Hinder Progress in Countries

1) UN Population Fund → 42% of pregnancies (less-developed countries) unplanned + 26% = abortion 2) 215 million couples (less-developed countries) want to limit number of children + determine spacing → lack access to family planning services - UN → costs $6.7 billion a year

Factors That Affect Country's Average Birth Rate and TFR

1) children for labor - less-developed countries → poor couples have large number of children - little education, have to work 2) cost of raising + educating children - lower in more-developed countries because more costly - do not work until late teens or twenties - cost more than $235,000 3) pensions - less-develoepd countries: reduce couple's need to have several children to support in old age 4) infant deahs - poorer countries; more children couple have, more likely will survive + grow to adulthood 5) urbanization - better access to family planning services - few children than rural areas of poorer countries 6) educational + employment for women - better-educated women marry later + have fewer children (not educated women 2 more than educated women) 7) average age at marriage (average age woman has first child) - normally fewer children when average marriage age is 25 or older 8) legal abortion - World Health Organization + Guttmacher Institute → 210 million women pregnant = 42 million abortion (22 million legal; 20 million illegal) 9) availability of birth control - women control number + spacing of children 10) religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms - favor large families - oppose abortion + birth control

Three Major Factors Account for Rise of Human Population

1) early + modern agriculture (10,000 years ago) → feed more people 2) technologies that helped expand into almost all of planet's climate zones + habitats 3) death rates dropped because of improved sanitation, health care, + antibiotics + vaccines → control infectious diseases

Factors That hinder Demographic Transition in Less-Developed Countries

1) extreme poverty 2) increasing environmental degradation + resource depletion 3) (since 1985) economic assistance from more-developed countries dropped

3 Important Growth Trends

1) rate of population growth slowed, but world's population growing at 1.2% - 2012: add 84 million 2) geographically, human population growth unevenly distributed - 2% of 84 million = more-developed countries (0.1% a year) - 98% of 84 million = less-developed countries (1.4% a year) 3) movement of people form rural areas to cities - more than half live in urban areas (cities) + suburbs

3 Most Effective Ways to Slow Population Growth

1) reduce poverty (economic development + primary education) 2) elevate status of women 3) family planning + reproductive health care

Have exceeded global boundary limits for __________ of major components of earth's life-support system, close to __________.

3; 5

As percentage of people age __________ and older increases, more countries will begin experiencing population __________.

65; decline

Human Population in 2050

7.8 billion to 10.8 billion (9.6 billion)

Human Population in 2100

8 billion to 16 billion

__________ of __________ people added to world's population between 2012 and 2050 will be born in __________.

95%; 2.6 billion; least-developed countries

Large number of deaths from __________ can disrupt country's social and economic structure by removing young adults.

AIDS - World Health Organization → (1981-2012) killed 30 million (U.S. = 617,000) - leading cause of death for people ages 15-49 - drop in average life expectancy (southern African countries = 15-26% of ages 15-49 infected with HIV) - loss of young-adult workers + trained personnel, taxpayers, workers to support young + elderly

New Era

Anthropocene era

Countries Faced with Rapidly Declining Populations

Japan, Russia, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia, Greece, Portugal, Italy

demographic transition

as countries become industrialized + economically developed, population grow more slowly - stage 1: preindustrial: population grows slowly because of high birth rate + death rate - stage 2: transitional: population grows rapidly because rates high + death rates drop - stage 3: industrial: population slows as births + death rates drop - stage 4: postindustrial: population growth levels off + declines as birth rates equal + fall below death rates

total fertility rate (TFR)

average number of children born to women in population during reproductive years - 1955-2012: more developed countries = 2.8 to 1.6 - 1955-2012: less-developed countries = 6.2 to 2.6 - 1955-2012: global: 5 to 2.4

replacement-level fertility rate

average number of children that couples in population must bear to replace themselves - higher than two children per couple (2.1 more-developed countries; 2.5 less-developed countries) - some children die before reaching reproductive years - any fertility rate above replacement level → population grow

As populatio n grows and use more of earth's natural resources...

ecological footprints expand + degrade natural capital that keeps alive + support lifestyles + economies

life expectancy

for any given year, average number of years person born in that year can be expected to live - 1955-2012: global = 48 years to 70 years - 2012: Japan = 83 years - poorest countries = 55 years or less - 1900-2012: U.S. = 47 years to 79 years a. 32nd among nations; 5 (1950)

family planning

provide educational + clinical services that help couples choose how many children to haven + when to have - information on: birth spacing, birth control, health care for pregnant women + infant - UN Population Division → reduce number of births, abortion, mothers + fetuses dying during pregnancy - drop of 55% in TFRs (less-developed countries: 6.0-1960 to 2.6-2012) - saves $10-$16 in health, education, social service costs (Thailand, Egypt, Bangladesh) - UN Population Fund + Alan Guttmacher Institute → family planning + contraception = prevent 53 million unwanted pregnancies, 21 million abortion, 1.6 million infant deaths, 142 pregnancy-related deaths of women, projected population size (more than a billion people)-$20 per couple per year) - Guttmacher Institute → U.S.: prevent 973,000 unintended pregnancies (406,000 abortion)

China, growth in numbers of children __________ because of __________.

slowed; one-child policy - average age of China's population increasing - UN → (2025) have too few young workers to support aging population

Case Study: The U.S. Population-Third-Largest and Growing

• 1900: 76 million • 2012: 312 million • 139 years → 100 million • 52 years (1967) → 200 million • 39 years (2006) → 300 million • baby boom: 1946-1964 → 79 million added • peak of baby boom: 1957: TFR = 3.7 • most years since 1972 = below 2.1 • U.S. Census Bureau = 2.3 million people added (2012) - 1.6 million (70%) births than deaths - 0.7 million (30%) immigrants- • 1907 standard of living - 3 leading cause of death: pneumonia, tuberculosis, diarrhea - 90% of doctors no college education - 1/5 adults could not read or write - 6% graduated high school - average worker earned few hundred to thousand dollars per year - 9,000 cars - 232 km of paved roads • 2050 → 400 million

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India

• 1952: 400 million (5 million added) • 2012: 1.6 billion (19 million added) • life expectancy rose from 38 years (1952) to 65 (2012) • 31% under 16 • UN → 2030: most populous country; 2050: 1.69 billion • average 2.5 children • 2 factors for larger families 1) poor couple believe need several children to work + care for in old age 2) preference for male children → keep producing

Core Case Study: Planet Earth: Population 7 Billion

• 200,000 years (latest version-Homo sapiens to 1920s) → 2 billion • less than 50 years (1974) → 4 billion • 25 years (1999) → 6 billion • 12 years (2011) → 7 billion • now → 7.1 billion

Japan has world's highest percentage of elderly people and lowest young people...

• 2012: 128 million • 2050: 95.5 million (25% drop)

Women do almost all of world's domestic work and child care...

• 60-80% of work = growing food, gather + hauling wood + animal dung for fuel + water • 66% of hours worked = received 10% of world's income • own 2% of world's land • 70% of world's poor • 66% of 800 million illiterate adults • number of girls do not attend elementary school: global = 900 million • poor women + cannot read → 5-7 children (women read = 2 or fewer)

Case Study: The American Baby Boom

• baby-boom generation influenced U.S. economy because make up 36% of adult Americans - created youth market in teens + twenties - create late middle age + senior markets - decide who gets elected to public office + laws passed - since 2011: baby boomers began turning 65 → number of Americans older than 65 grown 10,000 a day (graying of America)

Science Focus: Projecting Population Change

• demographers make wide range of estimates because: 1) have to determine reliability of current population estimates 2) make assumptions about trends in fertility 3) population projections made by variety of organizations

Tying It All Together: World Population Growth and Sustainability

• employ solar + renewable energy technologies → cut pollution + emissions of climate-changing gases • reusing + recycling materials → cut waste + reduce ecological footprint • preserving biodiversity → sustain life-support system which depend on

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China: A Success Story

• most populous country: 1.35 billion • U.S. Census Bureau → (2026) 1.4 billion; (end of century) 750 million • government provides contraceptives, sterilizations, abortion • couples pledging to have no more than one children → better housing, more food, free health care, salary bonuses, job opportunities • 1972-2012: 5.7 to 1.5 children • Earth Policy Institute → (1990-2010) reduced number of people living in extreme poverty by 500 million; 300 million become middle-class consumers • one-child policy reduce population by 400 million

Science Focus: How Long Can the Human Population Keep Growing?

• no population can continue growing indefinitely • (1798) Thomas Malthus hypothesized human population grow exponentially, while food supplies increase more slowly at linear rate - wrong: = food production grown exponentially because of genetic + technological advances • key problem: overpopulation because of number of people in less-developed countries (82% of world's population) • key factor: overconsumption in more-developed countries because high rates of resources • not providing basic necessities for 1.4 billion people ($1.25 per day) • 2 consequences if do not lower birth rates: 1) death rates increase because declining health + environmental conditions + increasing social disruption (e.g. Africa) 2) resource use + degradation of renewable resources intensify

Population experts construction age-structure diagram by plotting percentages of numbers of males + females in total population 3 age categories...

• prereproductive (0-14): too young to have children • reproductive (15-44): able to have children • postreproductive (45+): too old to have children - country with large percentage of people younger than 15 (wide base) → population growth unless death rates rise - 2012: global = 26% under 15 - 2012: less-developed countries = 29% under 15 - 2012: more-developed countries = 16% under 15 - current: global = 1.8 billion - 2050: global of seniors = triple