Environmental Issues Exam #1

Historical Perspective on Environmental Science

- A New Science - Empirical and Applied / Mission Oriented - Study and Solve - Highly Interdisciplinary

Sustainable Societies

- A society in balance with the natural world, continuing generation after generation, neither depleting its resource base by exceeding sustainable yields nor producing pollutants in excess of nature's capacity to absorb them. Is it possible? - Many primitive societies were, no modern society has ever been. Some are not sure if it's possible.

Sustainable Systems

- A system or process is sustainable if it can be continued indefinitely, without depleting any of the material or energy resources required to keep it running - First applied to sustainable yield - Examples: forestry, timber, fisheries - Ecosystem Capital

How does science/pseudoscience issue affect your lives?

- According to a recent Pew survey, 61% of American adults look online for health information - Misinformation/information for everyday decisions Should you spend money on an herbal supplement? Should you get vaccinated? Should you use sunscreen or avoid it? Should you reduce your calorie intake or increase exercise or both? Should you take extra vitamins? - Can be swayed by bias or superstition without knowing all necessary data? - Could you be spreading misinformation just talking to your friends and family? - Serious consequences...

What is good evidence?

- Addresses the claim at hand - Numerical data (text, tables, figures) - Result of a model (tables, figures) - Important Nuances often used to deceive Source is good, evidence is good, but evidence doesn't match the claim Supporting info is background, not evidence Explain assumptions and parameters in a model? Evaluate research methods to decide on quality

Unsustainability is Pervasive

- Agriculture - the way we produce and distribute food Example: Ogallala Aquifer (in the Midwest); the ground is sinking - The practice of ecologically harmful forms of industrial agriculture - The release of dangerous pollutants into ecological systems - The failure to actively begin to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - City and regional planning - the way we design and build our communities (urban sprawl, green buildings) - Architecture - the way we conceive of and construct buildings (green roofs address pollinator problems and helps cool; less energy to maintain) - Transportation planning - the way we design and build systems of mobility - Energy production - the way we generate and distribute fuel and other forms of energy - Household consumption - the way that consumers go about meeting their everyday needs Does not necessarily mean altering quality of life Little changes make big differences The power of consumption - what we buy influences what companies will do

How can you spot bunk? Look for:

- An appeal to myths - Irrefutable hypotheses - Explanation by scenarios or story-telling - Literary vs. empirical interpretations of facts - Resistance to revising one's position - Sympathy for theory because it is new or daring - Tendency to shift burden of proof from person who makes extraordinary claim to person who asks for evidence before accepting the claim

Easter Island (Rapa Nui)

- An island in the eastern Pacific Ocean, west of Chile, known for its giant human head statues. - Environmental degradation and damage - All the resources used up - One civilization living there - No trees / baron grass wasteland - Discovered by the Dutch in 1722 on Easter - Sparsely populated / poor biodiversity - Deforestation and environmental catastrophe - Civilization completely destroyed the island and eventually collapses

Environmental Prophets?

- Anti-global warming cartoon - Making predictions that hadn't come true - History of dramatic pronouncements - Headlines are exaggerated - Skeptic in Merchants of Doubt didn't initially believe in climate change due to all these exaggerated predictions "History Keeps Proving Prophets of Eco-Apocalypse Wrong" - The ability to make accurate predictions is a hallmark of good science. Predictions by environmental doom-mongers have proven to be wrong time and time again. No wonder most people no longer believe them.

Modern Environmentalism

- Arises out of concerns over pollution and human health Post-World War II - First time there was an organized fight for environmental issues using litigation, becoming involved in the regulatory process, hearings and using mass media to further the "cause." - Now been expanded to include a wide variety of issues including energy production, human population growth, wilderness protection, etc.

The paradox of individual action

- As an individual, your actions won't make a big global difference ...but magnified across many people does - Individual action does matter; collective action is important

What do scientists say about anthropogenic climate change?

- Carbon dioxide contributes to the greenhouse effect - CO2 is a greenhouse gas that impacts temperature, humans have been releasing more CO2 since the industrial revolution - Global temperatures are rising - Humans are contributing to global climate change, however we don't fully know how much

What makes a good claim?

- Clear, declarative statement - Offering a direction of the relationship - Cause and effect is declarative and specific

What scientists say about anthropogenic climate change (ACC)

- Consensus that human actions contribute to climate change, but uncertainty about the extent of human contribution (although generally high - why does it matter?) - "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations." IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007; 30,000 comments from experts and governments - 97-98% of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication data support the IPCC tenets Anderegg et al, 2009. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Social Traps

- Decisions that seem good at the time and produce short-term benefit but that hurt society in the long run Examples: Tragedy of the Commons, Time Delay, Sliding Reinforcer - Time Delay: Actions that produce a benefit today set into motion events that cause problems later on (overfishing with large nets; harvesting in unsustainable manner) - Sliding Reinforcer: Actions that are beneficial at first may change conditions such that their benefit declines over time (the use of pesticide to control insects; evolving resistance) - Difference? Action is changing the environmental conditions or altering the environment in some manner Education is our best hope for avoiding social traps - When people are aware of consequences, they are more likely to examine trade-offs to determine whether long-term costs are worth short-term gains Discounting the future: one of the most fundamental properties we see in animal behavior; overemphasize short-term gain relative to long-term benefit; animals have a difficult time valuing future benefits (survival instinct); similar responses in humans (retirement savings)

Characteristics of scientific fields?

- E.g. = biology, engineering, ecology, psychology - Systematic observation - Empirical testing of specific hypotheses - Collect tangible data, evidence - Formulation of general theories - Peer-review or reputable journal/source

Characteristics of pseudoscientific fields

- E.g. = numerology, UFO-logy, astrology, etc. - Based on assumptions, beliefs, or correlations not supported by evidence/experimentation - Biased/opinionated - Not reproducible or quantifiable - Underlying mechanism is not investigated - If experiments are conducted, how would you know if the results were proven scientifically? Words in the article, source of article, peer-review, credentials of author

There is a lot of pressure to sensationalize and are some reasons or misreporting climate change science in the media:

- Editors and journalists may not fully understand the theoretical models, assumptions and extrapolations involved in climate science - Rely too much on secondhand press reports and press releases rather than checking facts - Scientists may not play an active enough role in making sure press releases are accurate - Interest in the sensational to newspapers, sell add time, gain journal citations, gain more research funding, gain donations from charities or gain an agenda that can attract votes or advance careers

Precautionary Principle

- Encourages acting in a way that leaves a margin of safety when there is a potential for serious harm but uncertainty about the form or magnitude of that harm - Wide safety margins when setting exposure limits EU vs US - "Better safe than sorry" ideology (EU) vs. "Innocent until proven guilty" ideology (US) - Movements recently to be more precautious in the US "Regrettable Substitutes" - Should this be applied to other environmental problems that don't directly impact human health?

North American Mega Fauna Extinction

- Examples: North American camels, mammoths, saber tooth, bison, short-faced bear, dire wolf, American cave lion, American cheetah, glyptodon, giant beaver, Equus (more than 50 species of horse during Pleistocene), daedon ("hell pig" or "terminator" pig), ground sloth - Mega Fauna: size-based, large mammals, over a couple hundred pounds

People have hunted species to extinction for millennia

- Extinction followed human arrival on islands and continents

The Paradox of The Three-Legged Stool

- Fundamentally the triad model is based on a triangle of forces in balance - But to achieve environmental sustainability we need to change both the society and the economy? We cannot have a stable triangle where we are trying to sustain all three systems in their existing state - This is the paradox at the heart of our attempt to achieve 'environmental sustainability' that is glossed over with the idea of the 'three-legged stool' - We cannot trade vigorous (or even sustainable?) economic growth for unsustainable environmental practices

Science in the Media

- Good science reporting takes a lot of research - As in science, reporters should consider all evidence to draw conclusions and support their claims (don't cherry pick examples or quotes, works both ways here) - The best reporting reflects scientific opinion Scientific consensus should be reflected in reporting Active debate should be reported - Challenge - in many cases the scientific debate in more nuanced than a simply dichotomy Ex. Scientists agree on role of humans in climate change but are uncertain about the extent of that role or specific implications Top 3 sources for environmental information that are trusted by the public: - Zoos - National Geographic - "The flavor of the day" (a popular public figure doing things on Animal Planet like Steve Irwin)

It's important to be critical consumers of scientific information about climate change/environmental biology

- Help public to filter "the few golden nuggets from the ocean of nonsense" Follow up on science reporting... - Evaluate the evidence - Appropriate sources "Arguments" arise in issues questions - Controversial issues - Many contestable answers - Many stake holders

The Challenge of Sustainability

- How to ensure long-term livability (and perhaps survivability) on the planet - Conflicts with "the paradox of modernity"

Fair and balanced? Representation of both sides?

- Is there a point where you don't given equal representation to both sides? - What is fair and balanced when it comes to science? - Still debating if climate change exists although there is overwhelming scientific consensus... - Instead should be debating how to respond/what we should do about it - "Climate change is affecting us now"

U.S television news coverage

- Journalistic norm of balance reporting - Equal attention to all sides - With climate change... may misrepresent scientific opinion - Recall scientific consensus on ACC

Wicked Problems

- Large-scale, long-term policy dilemmas in which multiple and compounding risks and uncertainties combine with sharply divergent public values to generate contentious political stalemates Wicked problems in the environmental arena typically emerge from entrenched conflicts over natural resource management and over the prioritization of economic and conservation goals more generally - Solutions usually involve trade-offs (negative impact on someone); multiple causes (leads to conflict in cooperation) - Example: many causes of climate change, effects varied - Environment problems - and the choices they force us to make - are frequently complicated They involve trade-offs. They have environmental, social and economic impacts. This is called the "triple bottom line." - Policy problems - Unprecedented - Multi-causal - Highly complex - Solutions involve trade-offs - Alternative sides create highly contentious politics - Can traditional thinking/solutions work? - Climate change- super wicked problem

Lessons from Mono Lake?

- Motivation/concerns about human health - Environmental problems/crisis drives people to change - Good science element - Addressing a variety of issues - Many groups came together to get something done (human health, water use, migratory birds, etc.) - Legal challenges: they used the Courts to pause what was going on and to create other alternatives - The use of the media - Water conservation: not just taking water from somewhere else but using the water we have in a better way - Small changes magnified by large numbers of people make big differences (low flow toilet system) - Interconnected nature of systems: water use in Los Angeles impacting a distant lake in the mountains - We have to learn to live better with nature, can't assume that it is unaffected by our impact - Time delay: problem was addressed decades later from when it started in 1940s - In this case the science was relatively simple, not always the case

BPA in Cans and Bottles

- NTP stated it had "some concern" about the effects of BPA exposure on brain, behavior and prostate glands in fetuses, infants and children - Most NTP panelists felt the data were too uncertain to warrant a ban, but they applied the precautionary principle, saying it would be prudent for industries to look for a BPA replacement - Eventually banned in baby bottles and sippy cups - Long term low dose effects were still not really known

A better model?

- Nested dependencies model: three circles - Center is economy then society then environment

Triple Bottom Line Perspective

- New way of accounting for business success besides profit/loss - People / Planet / Profit - "Corporate Social Responsibility" - Moving towards sustainability requires economic and social change? We like this for business, what about for environmentalists?

Possible causes of extinction event

- Overchill (ice age) - Overkill (human caused, most probable explanation) - Overill (disease, rare/illogical, no evidence, doesn't make sense) - Overgrill (meteor, seems unlikely because no impact crater, may have exploded in upper atmosphere?, similar to dinosaur hypothesis: layer of rare mineral found in soil sediments when dinosaurs go extinct; crater finally discovered in coast of Yucatan)

Many environmental problems can be traced to three underlying causes:

- Population size - Resource use - Pollution

Utilitarian Conservatism

- Pragmatic Resource Conservation - Nature and forests, etc. should be saved not because they are beautiful or for some moral reason but because of their usefulness of humans Gifford Pinchot - First U.S Forest Service Chief in 1905 - Nature (habitats) should be saved "not because they are beautiful or because they house wild creatures of the wildness, buy only to provide homes and jobs for people" - "Resources should be used for the greatest good, for the greatest number, for the longest time" - "The art of producing from the forest whatever it can yield for (human service)" - Conservation ethic Argued against by John Muir, the first Sierra Club president - Conservation vs. Preservation - Park Service - Put simply "conservation seeks the proper use of nature, while preservation seeks protection of nature from use."

Change a Light Bulb, Save the Biosphere?

- Recommendation at the end of Inconvenient Truth is to change lightbulbs Is this a useful statement/useful? - One of the dilemmas we face in trying to move towards an environmentally sustainable existence is the scale of these ecosystems, which dwarf a single human actor. - Example - A single driver making a single trip - that driver perceives correctly that his individual action has minimal important - However, when that trip is multiplied by millions we begin to see a noticeable effect on the biosphere. - This one trip by a given driver and the millions of other trips by his peer are only possible because they are facilitated by society. - A single human actor cannot directly act to influence the biosphere but it is the collective action of society - through its institutions and market economy - that is important here

Sustainable Ecosystems

- Renewable Energy - Population control - Use matter sustainability - Local biodiversity

Global Environmentalism

- Represents a shift from merely local concerns to viewing the earth as a whole - All humans share a common global environment, the effects of one country on the environment are not limited to that country but affect others as well, and that there must be global cooperation the preserve the world's ecosystems Arises from both - Increased travel and knowledge of other areas - Increased ability to affect other regions Again the one person with an axe argument vs. massive deforestation - Earth Summit Conferences, etc. - Global Sustainability - Conservation Biology

What is "good science"?

- Scientific process: Hypothesis > Experiment > Data/Analyze > Conclusion - Our conclusion can be changed and evolve - Still debate our answers; continue coming back to it - Always reevaluating and testing theories

Special Challenges in Environmental Science

- Social Traps - Research/Solution Challenges - Wicked Problems

The Problem with the Three-Legged Stool

- Some argue that the triad model of sustainability is flawed since it does not explicitly recognize that environmental sustainability requires changes to social and economic institutions. - However, the idea of considering sustainability in terms of three dimensions - environment, social and economic - is a useful and valid way of conceptualizing the concept. - The order in which they are considered is important.

Sustainable Development

- Sustainable development is the organizing principle for meeting human development goals while at the same time sustaining the ability of natural systems to provide the natural resources and ecosystem services upon which the economy and society depend. - Yikes! - tough to tangible define or identify, problem too big? Current ideas have been more about identifying goals or avenues to pursue that seem important for the overall picture - We don't know the equation but can we identify some variables in it address those and get closer - Might be unsatisfying in some ways but it is a start UN Sustainable Development Goals Look at natural systems for clues

Working toward Sustainability

- Sustainable systems - Sustainable societies - Sustainable development

The Three-Legged Stool

- The common model of sustainability made up of a triad of economic, social and environment sustainability - The model suggests that for sustainability three simultaneous goals must be achieved: economic, profitability, social responsibility and environmental conservation Weakness? - Each of the legs of a stood are independent - We need combinations of these elements to achieve progress - We cannot trade vigorous economic growth for unsustainable environmental practices - Some think this model might not be an effective or realistic way of characterizing sustainability

The Appropriate Order for the Three Domains

- The important shift is to recognize that the economy is the creation of society, and not the other way around. - The economy is thus framed by the social context in which it occurs. - Further, both society and the economy operate within the context of a natural environment of limited capacity.

Elite Cues

- The most important factor influencing public opinion on climate change is the elite partisan battle over the issue. The two strongest effects on public concern are Democratic Congressional action statements and Republican roll-call votes, which increase and diminish public concern, respectively. Without consensus among the elites, the issue does not become mainstreamed. As Susan McDonald explains, "When elites disagree, polarization occurs, and citizens rely on other indicators, such as political party or source credibility, to make up their minds." - While media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. As environmental issues have become further politically polarized, Gabriel Lenz writes, "individuals use media coverage to gauge the position of elites and interpret the news based on their party and ideological identifications." A recent paper by Fredrick Mayor considering the various stories that are told about climate change, argues that "media matters, and in particular that changes in the pattern of narratives of climate change reaching the public can explain some portion of the changes in public opinion." - Communication strategies will HAVE to be linked to a broader political strategy

Balanced reporting - what's the solution?

- The portrayal of what is actually thought in science versus what the public thinks the scientists thinks is fundamentally off - We are debating the wrong issues - scientific fact that climate change does exist - An educated public - Some spokespeople for climate denial have no background in science at all - Not really a debate - more of a PR stunt; trained spokespeople vs. scientists

The Environmental Constraint on Growth

- The problem is that conventional economic analysis does not account for this constraint on the economy of the limited capacity of the natural environment. - For example, there is no economic mechanism in place to put a value on the fact that oil is a finite resource. Market price react to the scarcity of oil at a given point in time but not to its over scarcity in an absolute sense. - From the point of view of the economy, economic growth must be constrained by social and environmental considerations.

Good science is full of uncertainty. Why is this problematic?

- There can be implications and costs for change - Irreversible consequences Car mechanic example How long do we have? How much does it cost? What happens if it does break? - Consequences (of inaction and action) matter - Uncertainty is always going to be part of this debate Never going to be able to make perfect predictions

Mono Lake Video

- Toxic dust bowl in Mono Basin - Ecosystem collapse - Los Angeles was allowed to divert too much water - State park to protect and manage water - Forest Service scenic area to protect surrounding area - Water rights decision - Los Angeles to change management of aqueduct system Low flush toilet system Landscaping Storm water capture Irrigation with recycled water - Conservation success: lake now rising; implementation phase - Reduce, reuse, recycle

Urban Streams and the River Des Peres (in St. Louis)

- Used as a sewage system in early development - Degraded and channelized (leads to flooding) - Part of it was buried due to smell and pollution (World's Fair) - Recreated in Forest Park using tap water - Recently been restored in some areas and make it more of an asset - Urban streams water levels fluctuate often and much more extreme and rapid due to the lack of impervious surfaces (soak up rainwater) A positive from open systems concept? - Local solutions help us in the global environmental picture - Restoring the river can improve larger systems as well - Addressing local issues can result in bigger progress

Environmental and Conservation history has four distinct stages:

- Utilitarian Conservatism (Resource Conservation Ethic) - Bio-centric Preservation (Preservationist Ethic) - Modern Environmentalism - Global Environmentalism

Where does Global Environmentalism originate?

Apollo Space Program Earthrise (1968): The first time there was ever a picture of Earth from space Whole Earth (1972) Why is this important? - Illustrate the fact that the Earth is finite - Demonstrates its interconnectedness - We need to act to preserve it and its finite resources - The Whole Earth photograph became an iconic image for an entire generation and had a profound effect on human consciousness - It may be hard from the preservative of today to fully appreciate the significance of this image because it has become so ubiquitous

Logical Fallacies

Arguments used to confuse or sway someone to accept a claim or position in the absence of evidence; BPA debate filled with them on both sides TIP: look for logical fallacies in arguments of claims about the chemical, so we won't be mislead - Hasty generalization: drawing a broad conclusion on too little evidence Example: A study might show that BPA is present in the urine of babies who drink from plastic bottles; however, this is not evidence that babies are being poisoned by their bottles. - Red herring: presents extraneous information that does not directly support the claim but that might confuse the reader/listener Example: An argument that the buildup of toxic chemicals in modern humans is significant and that many of these buildups have led to problems may be true but tells us nothing about the safety of BPA. - Ad hominem attacks: attacks the person/group presenting the opposite view rather than addressing the evidence Example: Opposing the use of BPA on the grounds that the chemical industry is untrustworthy (because it profits from plastics) does not address the safety of BPA - Appeal to authority: does not present evidence directly but instead makes the case that 'experts' agree with the position/claim Example: Claiming that BPA is a health hazard (or not) because a noted toxicologist or scientific group has drawn that conclusion is not evidence in itself. - Appeal to ignorance: A statement or an implications that the issue is too complex, and the reader/listener is not capable of understanding it Example: In order to justify doing nothing about the use of BPA, one might claim that there is no way to know its effect since humans are exposed to so many toxic substances. - False dichotomy: The argument sets up an either/or choice that is not valid. Issues in environmental science are rarely black and white, so easy answers (it is "this" or "that") are rarely accurate Example: The claim that BPA must either be completely avoided or is totally safe for everyone is a false dichotomy.

Why did the Viking society in Greenland collapse?

Biologist Jared Diamond's five factors - Natural climate change - Self-inflicted environmental damage - Failure to respond to the natural environment - Hostile neighbors - Loss of friendly neighbors How they applied to the Vikings - Mini ice age - Overgrazing, overharvesting - Would not eat fish Icelandic Viking: shifted diet and lifestyle to take care of the land that they lived on, started eating fish and stopped cutting down trees and raising cattle, unlike the Greenland Vikings - Refused Inuit's help - European supplies stooped arriving

What is "sustainability"?

Brundtland Report - "Meet present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs" Paul Hawken from Blessed Unrest - "Stabilizing the currently disruptive relationship between earth's two most complex systems - human culture and the living world"

Does the media play a role in science education?

Certainly they do. Problem? Blame the media for bunk? - Panel Urges Study of UFO Reports - Unexplained Phenomena Need Scrutiny, Science Group Says - Independent scientific panel was assembled by Society of Scientific Exploration, who are sympathetic to UFO claims - One panelist who is a well-known parapsychologist who conducts research on bunk ideas that violate laws of thermodynamics and is considered pseudoscience by credentialed physicists - Discussed science that had already been debunked What happened? - Media outlets were taken in by well written press released and a few legitimate scientists in attendance - A little bit of digging would have shown the story wasn't worth mass media coverage Main point: Science is hard to community well! It requires careful research and reporting

Making a scientific argument

Claim: statement or hypothesis one is asking another person to accept - Clear, declarative statement (~hypothesis) Evidence: grounds for the claim; the source or data that support or refute the claim - Numerical data, facts, examples Warrant: justification that shows why claim is valid and why evidence supports the claim - Type of source, quality of source, quality of evidence (research methods)

"Tragedy of the Commons"

Common resources and private use; tragedy of the commons is not all about greed, it's about communication and knowledge, all lead to a problem which is overexploitation - How someone else's use impacts you - Garrett Hardin (1968): economist - Individual herder gets all advantage, but the public shares the disadvantage/cost - Exploitation of shared and limited resources by rational individuals - Examples: harvesting, clean air, water, forests, burning fossil fuels, spam email, parking meters Parking meters: using a communal good for individual benefit, overused, time limit is abused - Options: Privatization, regulation, volunteer cooperation, co-ops, polluter pays - Applies to the use of shared resources - When profits/benefits are enjoyed by one or few and the costs are shared by many Overexploitation - "Commons" can include the atmosphere, oceans, rivers, fish stocks, national parks, advertising

5th Step?

Conservation Ex Situ as the 5th Step? - Conservation In Situ means conservation and preservation efforts in the natural range (St. Louis Zoo cheetah conservation program) - Conservation Ex Situ means conservation outside the natural range - Conserving where we live - Sustainability starts at home - We must do a better job of living with nature as a whole - Thinking about how we live and our impact on nature

CRAP Test

Currency - How recent is the information? - How recently has the website been updated? - Is it current enough for your topic? Reliability - Is there scientific evidence? - Is it consistent with other reliable sources? - How well explained is it? Authority - Who is the creator or author? - What are their credentials? - Who is the publisher and are they reputable? - Who funded the research? - Do the publisher or funder have any interest in the results (e.g. financial interest)? Purpose (Point of view) - What is the motivation for providing the information? - Is this fact or opinion? Is it biased? - Trying to sell you something? - Have a political or commercial agenda?

What the public says

Does US news coverage of human role in climate change reflect scientific consensus? - Coverage does not match scientific consensus of what we see General public view does not match what we see in terms of science - Is there solid evidence the Earth is warming? ~59% (2010), public opinion is dropping - Do scientists agree it is because of human activity? ~44% (2010), huge disconnect in terms of public view vs. the science community

Unlikely Partners?

Ducks Unlimited and the Nature Conservancy - Wetland preservation - "In the eyes of hunters and anglers, conservation is wise use and wise use is limits," argues Nick Wiley, DU's chief conservation officer. The organization does not advocate on bag limits, seasons and other government-imposed restrictions of hunting. "It's about habitat, and wetlands, and making a difference there. Ducks is our calling card and focus, and we've got a strong support base from people who love ducks." - $0.83 of every dollar spent on conservation efforts

Biocentric Preservation

Emphasizes the fundamental right of other organisms to exist and to pursue their own interests - Nature has the right to exist for its own sake, not just for its usefulness - Nature has a spiritual value that is greater than the tangible material gain achieved through their exploitation Muir - "The world, we are told, was made for man. A presumption that is totally unsupported by the facts...Nature's object in making animals and plants might possibly be the first of all the happiness of each one of them...Why ought man to value himself as more than an infinitely small united of the one great unit of creation?" - Muir fought hard for Yosemite National Park among others - The National Park Service was first headed by a follower of Muir, Stephen Mather, and in fact has always been oriented toward preservation of nature in its purest state

Successful PR Campaigns

Example: "Dolphin Safe Tuna" - Tuna companies voluntarily moved due to public knowledge and uproar - Consumers direct their dollars to support those efforts - Demonstrates the power of individuals Concerns: - Dolphin Safe does not mean sustainable fishing practices - Issues with other organisms that get caught in fishing nets (such as sea turtles) - Not necessarily environmentally friendly

Global Views

Global climate change is harming/will harm people around the world... United States: 41% (2015), one of the lowest viewpoints U.S Has Stark Partisan Differences on Climate Change - Important to find common ground - Overgeneralization that Democrats believe in climate change and Republicans don't

Hard vs. Soft Sciences?

Hard sciences tend to be natural sciences - Often more yes/no objective answers - Formula, equations, math and models - Has changed over time > more and more overlap Soft sciences tend to be social sciences We should not view one as better than another

Pressure to sensationalize... But it undermines public understanding and public trust

If they lose trust, how do they decide/form opinions about scientific issues? "Threat Index" U.S public concern about climate change between 2002-2010 - Extreme weather x - Public access to science information x - Media coverage * - Elite cues ** - Advocacy movements **

Why does all this history matter?

In most cases, we need cooperation between many different groups/organizations/people to make conservation initiatives happen. There is more than one way to reach people.

Good Science and Uncertainty

Is good science "certain"? Must we be "certain" to be "right"? Should we only consider an issue settled when we are "certain"? What does "science isn't settled" mean? - What is happening vs. What we should do - Much more complicated than the overgeneralizations - Aspects are false on both sides - Uncertainty/technology evolving

Where are we today?

Major areas of environmental concern - Human population growth - Global atmospheric changes Climate change, air quality, etc. - Loss of biodiversity Extinction Crisis - Ecosystem Decline Around the world we see water supplies depleted, agricultural soils degraded, oceans overfished, and forests cut faster than they can regrow. All of this has consequences for ecosystem health and function. - Other issues Water Food Energy Use

"The paradox of modernity"

Many contemporary activities that have led to our "quality of life" tend to undermine rather than uphold the objective of sustaining life

"Grey literature":

Materials and research produced by organizations outside of the traditional commercial or academic publishing and distribution channels. Common grey literature publication types include reports (annual, research, technical, project, etc.), working papers, government documents, white papers and evaluations. Organizations that produce grey literature include government departments and agencies, civil society or non-governmental organizations, academic centers and departments, and private companies and consultants. Grey literature may be made available to the public, or distributed privately within organizations or groups, and may lack a systematic means of distribution and collection. The standard of quality, review, and production of grey literature can vary considerably. Grey literature may be difficult to discover, access and evaluate, but this can be addressed through the formulation of sound search strategies. Grey literature does not go through the peer-reviewed process.

Why did the Greenland Vikings vanish?

McGovern came to a conclusion: natural events and human choices led to the demise of the Greenland Vikings

What does all this mean?

Not the same to everyone Broad agreement on a few major points - Control human population growth and impact - Resource transition to an economy that relies in nature's income and protects ecosystem capitol from depletion - Technology transition from pollution-intensive economic production to environmentally benign processes - Community transition from car-dominated urban sprawl to "smart growth" concepts of smaller functional settings Economists - concerned mainly with growth, efficiency, and the maximum use of resources without compromising future Sociologists - focus on human needs, equity, empowerment, social cohesion and cultural identity Ecologists - main concern is for preserving the integrity of natural systems, for living within the carrying capacity of the environment and for dealing effectively with pollution Reality - True sustainability lies at the intersection

The Scientific Method

Observations to generate questions Choose a question to investigate Consult literature Develop a hypothesis and make a testable predication Design and carry out experiment or observational study to collect data Analyze data Data conclusions

Research/Solution Challenges

Open Systems: system where it's hard to define boundaries - Chaos Theory: mathematical theory that describes change, slight differences magnify and can have significant impacts, same experiment multiple times produces different results, unpredictability (Jurassic Park: water droplet, The Butterfly Effect) - Example: algae in a farm pond, outside factors influence, small-scale issues quickly expand, makes it difficult to think about cause and effect in an experiment Lag Times - Often a very long period of time between the stimulus and response. Most human induced environmental change involves slow processes with cumulative effects - Difficult to prove causation: too many things happening in between to be perfectly certain Irreversible Consequences - Long time or impossible to repair damage Soil erosion on Easter Island Loss of old growth forests Genetic Diversity Extinction - Bottleneck effect: large population shrinks in size and then it expands back out, is that population the same as it was before? not terms of genetic diversity, conservation is more challenging (example: cheetahs) - Need for Caution? Ever delay a car repair?

Types of sources: Primary

Original data/analysis and peer-review - Produced by scientists, usually at universities, academic research institutions, or government agencies - Peer-reviewed and published in academic journals - Reports methods and results of a research study - Original data presented in tables and figures - Build upon and cite previous research (references) Examples - Academic journal articles - Includes meta-analysis (new, original, quantitative analysis of data harvested from previous publications)

To put it another way - Protecting the Biosphere requires what?

Our Starting Place for Conceptualizing Sustainability The Difficulty of Protecting the Biosphere - The growing recognition that the action of man is causing catastrophic changes to the environment supports the need for change in both society and the environment - The environment in question is the global biosphere with one energy input and no output for waste. The biosphere consists of national ecosystems at different scales. The picture of Earth from space - Earth as an island, enclosed ecosystem - Let's protect our island - But big systems: Small change? Will it work?

Where does the environmental movement begin?

Plato - Plato was also outspoken in the environmental arena - Some of the earliest writings that showed concern for the environment are attributed to Plato. "Plato described the effects of soil degradation and deforestation on the peninsula of Attica (Pidwirny)" - He called a deforested Greece a "Skeleton of a body wasted by disease." - Plato's personal environmental ethic would be best described as Biocentric Preservation. He saw the value of nature in and of itself.

IPAT Model: impact = population x affluence x technology

Population Size - The human population in 2014 stands at around 7.2 billion, 7.6 billion today, estimated to continue to rise (2050: ~9.4 billion) - Species extinctions follow human population size Affluence - Typically the higher the standard of living, the more resources are used and required for the lifestyle; less time spent on survival and more concerned over global and environmental change - Increases the possibility for awareness/knowledge/caring - Pushing the drive toward green technology (A x T need to form a new relationship focused on minimizing environmental impact) Technology - Technology can be focused on minimizing environmental impact (renewable energy, electric cars, etc.)

Points about source types

Primary versus secondary - Both written by experts, both in academic journals - Technical language/academic writing can make it hard to understand - Most are not familiar with academic journals Secondary versus tertiary - Both can draw on primary sources - But who writes it matters "Thrice removed"; how many times removed from original source? - Focus on other cues - where public, by whom, references/data Understanding motives, agenda, bias is hard! The Internet makes it hard to trace sources! Terms are different in different disciples - E.g. Science versus History versus English

Were ancient or primitive societies more "in tune" or in harmony with nature?

Primitive = a person belonging to a preliterate, nonindustrial society or culture - Fewer people - Less advanced technology - Relied on nature more for food, shelter, etc. - Higher level of respect - Humans were part of the food chain - Daily relationship with nature

Ecological footprint

Quantifies human impact on the environment and resource use in land or acres, the average EF for people x number of people = more than one Earth, need one or two more Earths to be sustainable

Conversion of science into news: How does it happen?

Rarely do people that do the feature items read the scientific publications As a result, they are very vulnerable and susceptible to press releases Press relies made by made groups (Universities, NGOs, Government institutions) ...but not the scientists Headlines meant to generate interest (probably overstated, hyperbolized and dramatic) This kind of sensationalism is a very sensitive topic for issues we will deal with in this class - Conservation - Climate change - Sustainable agriculture - GMOs - Etc. "Is it helpful?": debated in the environmental front with conservation - Yes: generates public interest, overly dramatic nature of headlines makes people want to do something - No: people give up and feel like it's too late to change, it's not accurate

Types of sources: Tertiary

Reports describing or about research - Written by identified journalists - Describes data and studies - Bigger context, big picture - Usually no references and little detail Examples - Newspaper, online newspaper - Magazine article - Wikipedia or encyclopedia entry - Online news - Book

Types of sources: Secondary

Reviews by scientists or agency - Written by scientists or experts - Review and summary of many original studies - Descriptions of original studies - Provides references in complete form - Reviewed by peers (in journals) or internally reviewed (at government agency) Examples - Review articles in academic journals - Some journals publish only reviews and synthesis - Review or report by government agency

Science and Information/Public Education

Science vs. pseudo-science? Pseudo-Science Examples - Astrology - UFO-logy - Numerology - Nutrition - Sociology

Implications for Uncertainty in Science: Policy and Press

Should we always be "fair and balanced" in reporting the news? What does "fair and balanced" mean? - An element of truth - A space for opinions - Two or more sides to issues (equal coverage given to both sides) - Facts and multiple perspectives - Not overwhelming representing one side versus the other - Objective reporting "Reporters who have neither the time nor the scientific understanding to verify the legitimacy of competing claims about any given issue" The journalistic norm of 'balanced' reporting means that equal coverage is given to both sides of any issue. With respect to environmental issues such as climate change, do you think journalists should always give equal coverage to both sides? - The politicization of climate change - Can give the impression that there is more of a debate going on than there actually is

Three solutions: stewardship, sound science, working toward sustainability

Stewardship - A steward is a protector, someone who watches over something - "With great power comes great responsibility" - We are the stewards for the environment - A collective recognition by humanity that we are the stewards of the environment Number of environmental organizations Recycling, composting, etc. Renewable energy (hybrid cars) Endangered species protection Sound Science Mono Lake Example: - Early environmental success story - High alpine lake in the Sierra Nevadas mountains (California) - Salt water lake - Important for bird diversity (seagulls use it for nesting) - Awareness campaign: source of water for Los Angeles; health issues from toxins (Save Mono Lake) - Knowledge / communication - Critically important to have data and background information - Working toward Sustainability IPAT model: impact has to be lower We need another 1 or 2 Earths at our current level

What distinguishes Planet Earth from the vast multitude of other bodies in the universe?

Sustaining Life! - Because of the uniqueness of this attribute, shouldn't the primary objective of all our pursuits - politics, education, science, technology - be to sustain life - Or at least one of them?

Changing Society

The key to understanding sustainability is two fold: - Individuals have a significant effect on the biosphere through social institutions and mechanisms. Does one person changing their driving habits matter? - Individuals are capable of changing society and its institutions. Changing society can sometimes be a key to environmental sustainability Example: Greenland Viking didn't disappear because the environment couldn't sustain them

Consumption and Sustainability

The three-legged stool model does not help us address hard questions - How do we improve people's quality of life without necessarily increasing consumption to levels that might cause environmental degradation? - Can we have a sustainable economy without the need for constantly increasing levels of consumption? - Can we satisfy people's desire for access without environmentally damaging levels of mobility?

Certainty in Science

There are degrees of certainty in science; we know some ideas are better than others. The more evidence we have in support of an idea, especially when the evidence comes from different lines of inquiry, the more certain we are that we are on the right track. But since all scientific information is open to further evidence, we do not expect or require "absolute" proof.

Why is today's impact so much more significant?

Ultimately question depends on three primary factors - IPAT Model: impact = population x affluence x technology - Knowledge/Concern/Caring

Biomimicry

Uses nature as a model, mentor, and measure for design or for our own human ecosystems - Rely on renewable energy - Use matter sustainably - Have population control - Depend on local biodiversity How can we adopt more sustainable practices?

Biocentric Preservation: Potential Weakness?

Value to every animal - Population-management (overpopulation of native species, invasive species, captive breeding etc.) - The overpopulation of white-tailed deer negatively impacts environment; overrunning habits; overhunting of predators Ecocentrism - similarly is nature centered as opposed to human centered - Attaches the primary value to nature or ecosystems as a whole (land ethic) Can be a very important distinction in practice Also, BP doesn't have to mean ignoring usefulness to humans - Example: managing timber harvests Tree cavities in larger, older trees (habitats for wildlife) - Tree / forest maintenance; dead trees can be useful to the ecosystem and for preserving biodiversity - Blue bird boxes in Forest Park

Warrant: justification of the claim

Warrant: justification that shows why claim is valid and why evidence supports the claim - Type of source (primary, secondary, or tertiary) - Quality of source (CRAP Test) - Quality of the research methods (and thus the evidence) (description of good experimental design)

Environmental issues matter to our lives

Water & soil, food production, and biodiversity conservation, access to nature, public health Example: BPA plastics, estrogen mimicking chemical, concerns about it with respect to children

Reporting Climate Change

Why does it matter? - Politicians respond to collective opinion - Public perception matters - Mono Lake Example