Exam 1 HW1-4

Why is consensus opinion of (A) engineers and physicians more likely to be adopted by public policy makers than that of (B) educators and psychologists? Choose 2

(A) is more important to immediate safety. More people feel that they know best when it comes to (B) than (A).

Which of the following website URL suffixes are more likely to be associated with websites that strive to provide accurate information because they are curated by professional scientists for public service? These are from your slides. But you can also paste them into a browser to see what kind of sites use them.

.usda .fda .cdc

Below are (1) experimental or other empirical kinds of evidence and a false conclusion. After each, I will provide (2) a more accurate explanation of the phenomenon. Then (3) I will make a claim describing the error in the conclusion as a "False positive" or "False negative". If the claim (3) correctly describes the kind of error then mark the answer as correct. Otherwise, leave it unchecked.

1) Observation: sitting up all night outdoors, it looks like all that stuff in the sky is revolving around the Earth. Hypothesis: the earth is the center of the Universe. Test: There is none (bad science). However, the observer concludes that the Earth is at the center of the Universe because the observation is consistent with the hypothesis. 2) In fact, the observation is caused by the rotation of earth around its axis, not its location within the Universe. The earth is orbiting the sun, and the solar system is orbiting the center of the galaxy, which in turn is orbiting a larger region of space. There is no known center of the Universe. It is not even clear that a center exists or that the Universe is finite. 3) The error is a False positive. (If true, check the box.)

Match the example with the description. 1. A cancer screening test indicates that the patient has cancer, but it is incorrect: 2.A covid-19 nasal swab test indicates that someone doesn't have Covid, but they actually do have it. 3. Virus software on your computer identifies a program as a malicious one and this is confirmed by Geek Squad. 4. A covid-19 nasal swab test indicates that someone doesn't have Covid, and in fact they don't have it.

1. False Positive 2. False negative 3. True positive 4. True negative

To calculate scores for Multiple Answers quiz questions, Canvas divides the total points possible by the number of correct answers for that question. This amount is awarded for every correct answer selected and deducted for every incorrect answer selected. For example, if an instructor creates a Multiple Answer quiz question that includes three correct choices and two incorrect choices, and a student selects two correct answers and one incorrect answer, they would be awarded 1/3rd of total points for that question (1/3 +1/3 -1/3). In a multiple choice problem, there are four correct and four false answers. You select three of the correct answers and one of the incorrect answers. What is your score (as a percentage of 100)?

50

Read the article: Many herbal supplements aren't what the label says (Links to an external site.). Then choose the correct answers. Note, this is a long question and worth 4 points instead of 1. Below, is the entire URL in case the link isn't working. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AY_ebkSUt0IfwhgmgoxOf5S14xMfPebD0kbkmdvkKLY/edit?usp=sharing (Links to an external site.)

A 2013 Canadian government study estimated there are 65,000 dietary supplements on the market, consumed by more than 150 million Americans. The nonprofit American Botanical Council estimated 2013 sales of herbal supplements in the U.S. at $6 billion. Correct! Testing was performed by an expert in DNA technology, James Schulte II of Clarkson University in Potsdam, New York. The DNA tests were done on three to four samples of each supplement purchased. Each sample was tested five times. Overall, 390 tests involving 78 samples were conducted. Correct! The people who criticized the study work for the nutritional supplement industry and therefore have a conflict of interest. None of the criticizers were identified as technically qualified to evaluate the methods used. Correct! DNA testing on hundreds of bottles of store-brand herbal supplements sold as treatments for everything from memory loss to prostate trouble found that four out of five contained none of the herbs on the label. Instead, they were packed with cheap fillers. DNA tests found such substances as rice, beans, pine, citrus, asparagus, primrose, wheat, houseplant, wild carrot and unidentified non-plant material — none of which were mentioned on the label. Correct! Nutritionist David Schardt of the Center for Science in the Public Interest said the tests show that the supplement industry is in urgent need of reform, and until that happens, consumers should stop wasting their money. Correct! A physician and professor of pharmacology, said that it was "a well-controlled, scientifically based documentation of the outrageous degree of adulteration in the herbal supplement industry." Correct! The Food and Drug Administration requires companies to verify their products are safe and properly labeled. But supplements are exempt from the FDA's strict approval process for prescription drugs. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman's office paid for the study. Schneiderman concludes that the supplements pose serious risks. People who have allergies or are taking certain medications can suffer dangerous reactions from herbal concoctions that contain substances not listed on the label. Walmart-brand echinacea, an herb said to ward off colds, were found to contain no echinacea at all. GNC-brand bottles of St. John's wort, touted as a cure for depression, held rice, garlic and a tropical houseplant, but not a trace of the herb.

A product description on the back of the package includes a reference to a peer-reviewed article of original research conducted by an independent research organization that finds the product is useful for reducing the duration of colds. Why is this insufficient evidence?

A company selling a product is extremely unlikely to reference any articles that fail to find value in its products. One study is considered preliminary, not conclusive. Companies have been known to lie

Which are true of HW and Quizzes?

All work is due before 11:59 PM on the due date. If Canvas says that it was submitted late there is a 20% late penalty per hour (or fraction thereof). After 2 AM the assignment is worth 40%. HW and quizzes can be taken 3 times. Your highest score will be recorded. If a student gets ill or has technical problems on the day that a HW or quiz is due, they are responsible for the points lost and cannot get an extension. Due dates are not start dates! You are welcome to come to me for help. (This is true. Free points!).

_________________ may have biases that affect their abilities to perform in an objective fashion. Hint: everyone is ignorant and has biases.

Authors Politicians Scientists

Which of the following are associated with reliable sources of information?

Clear writing. Data rather than personal anecdotes. Referenced sources are published, peer reviewed, research. A statement asserting an absence of conflict of interest. Referenced sources of information.

Which are generally true of products classified as drugs?

Companies have been caught suppressing data that indicates potential danger to some users. They are evaluated (by large, controlled experiments) to determine if they have any value.

In a study of 100 cities, researchers found a statistically significant positive correlation between the percentage of life-guards within a city and the percentage of citizens who drowned within that city. From the information presented above, which of the following are appropriate conclusions or hypotheses? Choose 2.

Correlation is not causation. Cities with more life-guards may have more opportunities for drowning (eg., lakes, rivers, or ocean)

Use a search engine to find which of the following assertions about Daniel Hauser are true. All but 1 are true.

Daniel's father, Anthony, was quoted as saying: "I know many people around here who have had cancer, they did the chemo, it would come back. They did the chemo again and again and they are all in the grave. Chemo isn't foolproof." In 2010, Anthony Hauser reported that he had leukemia. He also reported that he was treating his cancer with vegetable diet puree. [Anthony says he's] "not refusing anything," but that chemotherapy would be a last resort. "I feel I have time for that,". He admits, however, that his doctors aren't sure if he has the luxury of time. "It's up to God, I guess, what happens," he added. Anthony died of leukemia in 2011. Daniel testified that he believed chemotherapy would kill him. Daniel was found by the court to be unable to read.

Which of the following are true regarding how the study indicated by the figure below was conducted?

Each student was asked to predict their course grade five times during the semester.

Which are true of superstition?

Events that immediately precede an important event tend to be treated as causative even if they are not. Superstitions include beliefs in which correlations are assumed to be causative.

Wakefield lost his medical license because he failed to disclose conflicts of interest when publishing a paper in which he claimed that the MMRV might be dangerous. What were they?

He had a patent pending on an alternative vaccine that would compete with the current MMRV. He had was being paid by attorneys suing the MMRV maker.

Which 2 are true of Louis Pasteur's experiment?

His results have been elevated to the level of a theory because of a great many attempts to falsify them over the last 150 years He repeated his experiment using an alternative experimental design and got consistent results.

Which one of these is a true statement concerning exams?

If you miss one because of serious and compelling reasons, as determined by me (e.g., hospitalization, travel for an CSU-sanctioned event, or funeral of immediate family member) you still need to communicate to me ASAP and provide documentation to verify the reason.

One day, while in graduate school, some friends and I were are arguing about olive oil quality and price. I thought that expensive oil was a rip off. One guy brought in his 30$ bottle of Extra-fancy olive oil. We already had two other oils in the lab: a cheap looking olive oil that had been on the shelf for an unknown number of years, and canola oil. We found someone from another lab to set up an experiment: label three clean coffee mugs (on the underside, out of sight), each with the name of one oil, and pour the appropriate oil into each. The labeling and oil pouring were done while the tasters were not in the room. The person who set up the experiment watched while we each used bread to taste the oils as many times as we wanted until we made our decision. Results: We all voted for the same mug of oil, which turned out to be Canola. All but one of us thought this was funny. Which 4 of the following answers are true?

It is a single blind experiment. Correct! There were three treatments. Correct! The guy with the 30$ bottle, apparently could have saved himself some money. Correct! My hypothesis appears to have been that the expensive olive oil would not be any more popular than the others if people didn't know the prices or identities of the oils.

Which are true of Wikipedia compared to traditional encyclopedias?

It is far more extensive. There are far more contributors. A study published in one of the most competitive scientific journals found it to be comparable in accuracy. Bogus/erroneous contributions are quickly removed.

Which are true of the flu vaccine?

It is safe and has saved millions of lives over decades. It has to be redesigned every year because the virus evolves rapidly. It reduces the likelihood of infection in those receiving it by 10-60%. It works better some years than others. Even in years when it doesn't work well, the vaccination is very important because it slows the rate of spread, resulting in fewer infections.

Which are costs of multitasking? 3 are correct.

Loss of information during the moment attention switches Lack of awareness that information has been lost Over-estimation of one's performance while multitasking

Which are true of coronaviruses?

Many infected people have no symptoms. People without symptoms are often infectious SARS-Cov-2 is the name of the virus that causes Covid-19 It causes vascular damage especially to the lungs. MERS and SARS are caused by different coronaviruses.

Which of the following contribute to the success of science? Hint: most are true.

Many years of demanding apprenticeship/training within Universities. Review of manuscripts by other experts. Dedication to reason rather than personal belief. Repeatability of results by other researchers. An expectation of ethical behavior, such as revealing any conflicts of interest to editors and grant reviewers.

I surveyed the web for vaccine information and found two major categories of sites: (1) those by large non-profit organizations: government or non-government organizations (NGOs), such as WHO and CDC that report the results of large, controlled studies, and (2) individuals and small private groups that reported their personal observations (where I would see phrases such as "my daughter became autistic after receiving the MMR vaccine"). There were far more of the 2nd type of sites. Why? Choose 3.

People are committing the same mistake as rats that press a lever and then perform an arbitrary behavior the moment before the food arrives: assuming that a correlation is causing the thing of interest. A single scary anecdote (true or false) can be copied and pasted endlessly across the web, giving the appearance of independent replication when there is none. There are fewer responsible, evidence-based organizations than there are individuals with opinions.

Which are true regarding the study indicated by the figure? 3 are correct.

People were tested in some area of knowledge and then asked to rate their performance. Performances were binned into four categories based on relative skill. The worse they performed the more they overestimated their performance.

Which methods are useful to thrive in a course (or a career)? All but one answer is correct. See p. 2 of the updated syllabus.

Print out the slides and take notes on them during class. Record lectures if you cannot write fast enough. Immediately after class, go back through today's notes and clarify rough spots. Especially take time to make notes about things that were difficult to understand and make them clear, so that you will quickly understand them again next month when you are preparing for the exam. Begin memorizing several days before the exam in short periods instead of one long period the day before the exam. Example: 1 hr per day for 5 days is much more effective than 5 hr in one day. Find ways to pay attention in class, especially as it drags on and on and you just want to sleep... "I am loosing points", "I am paying for this class".When reading your notes, or book, after ever paragraph or concept, ask yourself a question and answer it. Example, "this is saying... because surface area is increasing slower than volume there is a point at which cells surfaces can no longer move materials fast enough to support the inside of the cell"). Identify what exactly is confusing you so you can more easily identify what you need to do.

A study followed (observed) a group of volunteer freshman over the first 4 years of their college career. Each week the students filled out a questionnaire regarding the number of hours of TV they watched that week. After 4 years the data were analyzed and produced the figure below. What does this figure show? Choose 2.

Students who watch less TV are more likely to have a higher GPA. A negative correlation between TV viewing time and GPA

Which 2 of the following are hypotheses.

Temperature affects fermentation. Temperature can affect fermentation.

Some have claimed that the herb echinacea reduces the likelihood of catching the common cold. In many studies conducted by a variety of independent researchers, this claim has been refuted. Assuming these studies were properly conducted, which of the following are potentially scientific reasons in support of further research on this subject. This question is about how the scientific method is an ongoing process.

The effective length of time needed for taking echinacea is longer than that provided in any of the scientific studies. The effective dosage of echinacea was outside the range of the dosages given in the scientific studies.

A researcher wanted to test the hypothesis that capsaicin (the chemical that makes chili peppers hot) reduced the symptoms of the common cold. Healthy volunteers were given nasal drops containing a cold virus. Two days later those who have developed a cold were randomly divided into two groups that each received one of two identical looking capsules. Group 1 capsules contained ground habanero pepper (the entire pepper was used); group 2 capsules contained maltodextrin (which is a common food additive and known to have no physiological effects). Four hours later, individuals filled out a questionnaire that measured how sick they felt. The experiment is double blind. Which two statements are true?

The experiment controls for the placebo effect If group 1's symptoms are relieved more than group 2's, then we can conclude that, in this study, habanero relieves cold symptoms.

Use techniques I showed you in class to find authoritative website(s) to determine which of the following three assertions are true.

The flu vaccine is generally recommended for people over 6 months of age (excluding those with strong egg or previous flu vaccine allergies) Influenza is a group of related viruses that infect birds and mammals. Over the last 30 years in the US, approximately three thousand to fifty thousand people die each year from the flu. Note: This is not meant to be tricky. The numbers are approximate. Either they are way off (then false) or are pretty good estimates (then true).

Read the article below and choose the correct statements below (all but 1 are correct). Some answer choices will require you to search for information on the web by using words/information from the article or web page. The history of vaccination and disease is similar to that seen in the US. To put the numbers in perspective, the population of the UK is approximately twice that of California.

There is currently a resurgence of whooping cough in CA. In the 1970s and 80s, parents stopped vaccinating their children against whooping cough. This led to three epidemics, and at least 100 children died after catching the disease. This article is published in the United Kingdom by a publicly funded health agency. At the worst point in the history of the infection, polio paralyzed approximately one thousand children around the world every day.

Which are generally true of dietary supplements?

They need not be evaluated (by large, controlled experiments) to determine if they have any value. If a botanical/herbal supplement caused an illness (eg., cancer in, say, 10% of users over several decades of use, or years after discontinued) it would be unlikely for this to be noticed without careful long-term studies using animals and/or humans. These studies are not generally done. The Food and Drug Administration regulates them but does not generally test them for safety or efficacy. If an herbal supplement did have an active ingredient that is useful, it may have any number of other ingredients that are toxic. Companies have been caught lying and using deceptive labeling about tests done on the efficacy of their products.

Which are true of eye-witnesses to crimes? choose 4.

They often pick the person within a line up who most resembles the person they saw. Correct! They can make mistakes. Correct! They can lie. Correct! Their testimony has sent innocent people to prison.

Canvas is unable to correctly grade your work if you submit both before and after the due date. If you submit work on time (before the due date) and again after the due date passes, it will treat your previously submitted (on-time) work as late and will use the time of the late work to assign a percentage penalty as if the on-time work did not exist. To avoid this, when preparing for exams, you should open previously submitted work (at Grades) rather than resubmit work after the due date.

True

Which are effective ways to avoid Covid-19 infection?

Wear a mask around others. Socialize outdoors, maintaining distance Vaccination

Answers with check boxes are called Multiple Answer. How many answers may be correct?

any number, except zero, unless a specific number is mentioned in the question.

In a scientific experiment, a control group (choose 2):

is compared with a treatment group should differ from a treatment group in only one way.

The placebo effect:

is the observation that some people report benefits from any treatment they believe in even when it is a sham.

Alan claimed that a local herb was effective in lowering anxiety and was planning to invest in the product. As evidence of his claim, Alan, who had anxiety over his financial situation, said that he felt much better after the treatment, was much more relaxed, and no longer worried about his finances. Which of the following are methodological flaws in Alan's investigation? Choose the best two answers.

lack of appropriate controls lack of replication

The first section of this HW assignment concerns the course syllabus and your commitment to following course guidelines. Do you agree to be responsible for reading and understanding the information provided in the syllabus? If so, please write 'yes' below.

yes