Fashion Forecasting Exam 1

long term forecasting

- 5 years or more - Explores possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization's direction and development.

Once a trend is determined, it can be further defined by its typology:

- Behavioral trends vs. Attitudinal trends - Microtrends vs. Macrotrends - International trends vs. National trends

what are some examples of trickle up theory?

- Influence of African-American culture - Emphasis on youth culture - Mixing of the classes - Gender fluidity in fashion - Style leadership by prostitutes

what are the factors that lead to the emergence of the mass market?

- Mass communication in the form of magazines, newspapers, television, and movies made style information available to all simultaneously. - Mass production made more looks available in any given season, offering the possibility of individual selection from among the many resources. - A growing middle class.

short-term forecasting

- Periodic monitoring of the long-term vision and revisions as circumstances dictate. - Coordinates the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the marketplace.

Trend initiators can be segmented into four different categories (PEST)

- Political Initiators - Economic Initiators - Sociocultural Initiators - Technological Initiators

what are the six principles of trend contagiousness, or STEPPS?

- Social currency - Triggers - Emotion - Public - Practical value - Stories

groups of trendsetters

- The young - Designers - Artists - Wealthy people - Gay men - Celebrities - Other style-conscious subcultures

Long-term forecasts provide...

- insights that are valuable in evaluating current business practices - indications that a business needs to reposition the product or the way of relating to customers - input for a company's strategic planning - a backdrop for understanding and evaluating short-term forecasting

Forecaster pay attention to the following signals

- new and unusual businesses - innovative and novel products - unusual travel destinations - new, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure-related activities - shifts in the workplace and the way people do their jobs - new shopping locations, store designs, and services for customers - stories about people and their unique adjustments to life's challenges - stories about neighborhoods with an interesting mix of people, shopping, or ethnic cultures

when writing out trend scenarios, what are the three you write?

- the "surprise-free" scenario - the "best-case" scenario - the "worst-case" scenario

what are the four elements forecasters and futurists use in developing a long-term forecast?

- the time frame for predictions—five years ahead, a decade, or more - the techniques used for capturing signals - the methods used to interpret the signals and make the forecasts - the range of the forecasts, whether general or restricted to certain countries or economic systems, particular cohorts, or specific industries

trend reporting

-A trend report describes the basic elements of a trend -Establishes the cause-and effect relationship between a trend in one product category and other related product categories. -Estimates the relative strength of trends

trickle up theory

-According to this theory, higher-status segments with more power imitated those with lower status -status markers float up the status pyramid rather than trickling down or across it -provides the cornerstone of today's view that street fashion is a laboratory for fashion change

Whether or not a trend is adopted by the trendsetters and ultimately the mainstream can depend on some external factors, including:

-Information Cascades - Label, Coattail Effect, and Flow - Contagion -Memes -Buzz and hype

trickle across

-The theory holds that fashion information trickles across horizontally within a social class rather than vertically across a class -Two kinds of consumers are influential in popularizing new looks: innovators and influentials -designers propose fashion and gatekeepers determine which looks are reproduced in quantity at all price points

trend forecasting in practice

-Trend forecasters locate the source of trends then use their skill and knowledge to make connections between them and identify emerging concepts. -One thing all forecasters have in common is frequent travel.

s-curve

-a cumulative form of the Rogers diffusion which more clearly mirrors the growth phase of the product cycle -the innovation is introduced and goes through the growth cycle until that market niche is filled; then begins a period of chaos during which a new niche is identified. When identified, another growth cycle begins, and so on.

cool

-a set of common meanings within a peer group that signifies group affiliation -Varies between groups and changes with time

fashion

-a style or a set of trends that is popular in the present and has been accepted by a wide audience -A personal statement and a reflection of contemporary society that is constantly changing with psychological, sociological, cultural, and commercial aspects

fashion theory

-describes, explains and predicts how people relate to their clothing and use clothing to manage their appearance and perception - Forecasters use theories to explain how a trend begins and its likely path within a social system. - Theories show us the recognized patterns that have explained past fashion and can be used to arrange and order current observations.

Susan Kaiser (1990) identified the source of instabilities that exist in society among four distinct cultural categories:

-gender -ethnicity -age -attractiveness

fad

-is a trend of even shorter duration than a fashion -Introduced, gains rapid visibility and acceptance among a relatively small contingent of consumers, and fades quickly because it is not supported by corresponding lifestyle changes.

Word of mouth is more persuasive than advertising

-more credible -more targeted

Two main factors contribute to whether something will catch on:

-social influence -word of mouth

mainstream

-the majority of all consumers -Cool style falls approximately 12-18 months ahead of mainstream style

environmental scanning

A method of systematically tracking and analysing trends using media sources

directional trend

If fashion innovators and fashion-forward retailers adopt a trend and public awareness begins to build

When do fashions cease to be cool?

Once fashions that are considered rebellious are duplicated and mass produced by the fashion industry, they cease to be cool.

the manufacturing cycle

Planning and scheduling for apparel production by the manufacturer

perceived risk

a consumer's imagined potential consequences of purchasing something new and novel

synthesis

a creative reintegration of the parts

megatrend

a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society; a general shift in thinking or approach which impacts countries, industries and organizations

complexity

a gauge of the difficulty faced by a consumer in understanding and using the innovation.

erogenous zones

a newly emphasized part of the body becomes this and is always shifting

analysis

a phenomenon is dissected to achieve a more complete understanding of its components

trend

a transitory increase or decrease over time

change agents

a very small group of innovators who begin the diffusion process followed by a larger group of opinion leaders. - They communicate fashion trends visually and verbally. - They are relatively more knowledgeable and interested in fashion compared to others in their group. - They have the aesthetic taste and social sensitivity to assemble a stylish look

compatibility

an estimate of harmony between the innovation and the values and norms of potential adopters

classic

an item or style that is introduced, gains visibility, generates multiple purchases or replacements purchases, and reaches a plateau level of widespread acceptance that endures for a long period of time with only minimal changes.

color cards

collections of custom-dyed silk and wool swatches presented on cards for American textile companies to use as a source of ideas and direction

consumer adoption process

considers how the adoption will affect the way the consumer presents himself or herself to others and how others will react to the result. There are several versions of the steps in this mental process

conspicuous waste

deliberately buying trendy clothing that will go out of style quickly then discarding it due to fashion change even though it is still functionally usable

trickle down theory

designer looks and styles move down to fast fashion brands

trend map

details the stage in development and probable importance of each trend.

conspicuous consumption

displaying their wealth through their extravagant lifestyle

vicarious consumption

displaying wealth through the dress of a romantic partner or offspring

the diffusion curve

e illustrates how a trend starts slowly, peaks, and then declines among consumers, in a process that resembles a bell-shaped curve

What are the three stages in the evolution of a trend?

fringe, trendy, mainstream

influentials

group members who establish the standards of dress for others in the group

conspicuous wealth

high-priced gems and metals

abstracting

identifies underlying similarities (or differences) across ensembles and design collections

embryonic trends

in the very first stages of development

polysocial

individuals mix and mingle among a wide variety of people and places

fashion plates

magazine illustrations of men and women wearing the latest styles

what are other names for trickle across theory?

mass market or simultaneous adoption theory

conspicuous leisure

not having to work for a living and participating in an extravagant lifestyle of travel, entertainment, and the pursuit of pleasure

what are the three research strategies?

observation, media scans, and interviews

conspicuous multiplication

owning many similar garments so that one never wears exactly the same outfit twice

cognitive-sensory innovators

prefer both cognitive and sensory experiences

sensory innovators

prefer experiences that stimulate the senses, have an easygoing attitude toward life, take risks, participate in pleasurable activities without thinking too much, and engage in dreaming and fantasy

cognitive innovators

prefer new mental experiences and enjoy novelty when associated with thinking and problem solving

forecasting

seeks to identify how past trends will change and project their influence on the future.

sample/swatch books

small rectangular pieces of larger fabrics cut out by fabric manufacturers and pasted into books for salesmen to take with them to show to clients

innovation

something new that is introduced to the public for approval and adoption

what is another name for trickle up theory?

status float phenomenon

monosocial

stay among people like themselves

the pendulum of fashion

swings from a point of exaggeration and then moves in the opposite direction

observability

the degree of visibility afforded the innovation

short term variations

the path of trends as they emerge, evolve, and dissipate.

relative advantage

the perception that the innovation is more satisfactory than items that already exist in the same class of products

trialability

the relative ease of testing out the innovation before making a decision

enjoyment risk

the risk of becoming bored by the purchase or not liking it as much as expected.

economic risk

the risk of performance problems after the purchase, that the purchase price may reduce the ability to buy other products, and that the price will fall after purchase.

social risk

the risk that the consumer's social group will not approve

conspicuous materials

use of expensive materials

conspicuous addition

wearing more layers of clothing than other people

conspicuous division

wearing more outfits consecutively, with the more outfits one displays, the higher one's status.

conspicuous labeling

wearing of prominent designer brand names and logos

cyclical variations

when style features repeat over time in response to an underlying trend

long-term trends

when there are fundamental and continuous changes in the pattern of culture

what are the characteristics of fashion?

• Social and Psychological • Popular Culture • Change • Universality • Transfer of Meaning • Economic Stimulus • Gender Differences