Gov 3 :)

negative preferencing

1 policy increasing in their budget leads to the other decreasing (if a increases, b should decrease)

bureaucratic drift

Bureaucrats' Tendency to Implement Policies in a Way that Favors their Own Political Objectives Rather than Following the Original Intentions of the Legislation.

Dominant Strategy in the Prisoner's Dilemma?

dominant strategy is a strategy that yields a higher payoff no matter what the other player chooses (antonym: a dominated strategy is a strategy that yields a lower payoff no matter what the other player chooses). The best solution is to confess in the Prisoners Dilemma.

What is retrospective voting?

evaluating incumbent candidates in office! (Primarily) -> evaluations of the economy in the recent past

Do people's correlation with tax spending and benefits make them vote more republican and democratic

false (no true correlation)

Philip Converse definition of Belief System

ideology (some configuration of ideas that is interdependent from variability)

RAS Model (Zaller)

model says that the opinions individuals expresss reflect the messages that they receive (correlated with their level of political awareness), accept (how consistent these ideas are to their prior belief), and sampled (what issues are prioritized in that moment)

Centipede game

money builds and the chances that they grab go up in percentage

Quadratic loss function and Linear loss function

shows the preference of the person and how that preference lowers as you move away to the left or right side of that point of max preference

Public Goods are Characterized by

the possibility of free riding, non-rival consumption, non-excludability

3 fundamentals of a campaign

voter demographics, economic conditions, party identification

Plott's equation

If preferences change, outcomes can change, even if institutions remain constant If institutions change, outcomes can change, even if preferences remain constant

Which 3 things explain over-time changes and inconsistencies in people's survey responses?

Lack of meaningful political attitudes, measurement error in survey questions, some people view issues as interconnected

Maximalist public opinion?

Maximalists: Achen (1975) - measurement error Lacy - non separable preferences

What is the increasing gender gap in US party identification due to?

Men becoming more republican and opposing social welfare

What changed between 2004 and 2012 in its relationship to people's perceptions of whether they benefit from federal spending

Race

Which demographic variable has the greatest effect on vote choice in US elections?

Race

Fire Alarm Oversight

members of Congress do not initiate investigations but wait for adversely affected citizens or interest groups to bring bureaucratic perversions of legislative intent to the attention of the relevant congressional committees

Biggest Difference to Frank and Bartels

definition of social class

Spatial Theory

(positive politics) voters place themselves on some point in space and they will choose the candidate that is spatially closer to them. people have ideal points in multiple points in space. (The indifference contours could make separable preferences where one is separated from another (circle) and non separable (ovals). We can find the voters induced ideal points which is the adjacent point on the line connecting the two positions)

What did NOrris and Inglehart say about modern voting patterns

Norris and Ingelhart said modern women were more liberal

Perspective on Issue Voting "Michigan School" The American Voter 1960-1970

- Party identification is the "unmoved mover" of most vote choice - Not many people vote based on issues - Issues positions are unstable, incoherent - Traditionalist view (similar to converse in that people lack meaningful political attitudes)

Stuart Stevens

- Highlighted a competition in ideology vs identity. - political candidates have found that the most effective message is short and sweet and complex ideology has become lost - Trump was the only nationalist where the other candidates were arguing ideology and their support was fragmented and we went with the identity - best things for a most successful campaign -> financial support and quality candidates (great idea executed moderately well is better than a mediocre idea executed exceptionally)

"Rational Choice" School (Downs, Key, Fiorina) 1970s - 1980s

- Issue voting more prevalent than believed - Retrospective Voting - Revisionist theory of party identification

According to Gordon Allport, political attitudes...

- exist independently of external stimuli - are measurable using attitude surveys

Perspective on Issue Voting "Columbia School" Lazersfeld 1940s-1950s

- most voters choose candidates before campaigns - party identification and group membership matter - evidence: Riechstag won because Germany political system was so

Boxed Pigs Game

- two pigs placed in a cage - A lever must be pressed so that good comes out of a dispenser, There are no other sources of food - So the pigs can be a free rider. If the little pig presses the dispenser the big pig will eat more than him even though the little pig expended the energy.

what is holy trinity of voting?

1. Parties - party identification explains most of voter behavior 2. Candidates - incumbency, experience, performance in office 3. Issues- the economy first

positive preference

2 policies increasing in their budget ( if a increases, b must increase)

Does Answering Survey Questions Change How People Think About Political Issues?, Dean Lacy

Argument: Although underlying preferences may not change, the order of questions will effect non separable issues and will create data instability over time Evidence: Survey had open ended questions in the beginning the end of the survey in order to attain a clear initial stance of the surveyor's innate attitudes. No one referred to the same issue in the beginning and the end of the survey. Rights and privacy issue were rarely mentioned in the beginning (3%) and a lot in the end (16%). 22/31 issues show no difference. Conclusion: although questions effect our importance placed on these issues and their relevance in our minds, the attitudes themselves do not change

Theories of Retrospective Voting, Morris

Argument: Americans do not lack political opinions, but we care about results rather than policies and are influenced by retrospective thinking Evidence: Retrospective thinking is that of making decisions based off of the current incumbent party. Voters rather think retrospectively than prospectively because this makes voters think more about policy and the future outcome. Good past performance reinforces the presumption that the administration is competent. Components like war are very salient to people so that is a large event that happened in the past that people were consider when they are putting someone in power so that they have no fears of future war. People vote based on where their money is going but retrospective economic voting is weak. possible that certain civil rights issues are so deeply entrained in party images that they are asymmetric to their impact. For ex: those perceiving progress as too slow tend to vote democratic (even if incumbent admin). Presidential and congressional votes are pretty consistent Conclusion: People tend to vote based on their approval/disapproval of the incumbent party

Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington

Argument: Biggest division in our world today will be based on cultural divisions Evidence: Cultural division evolved in the French Revolution (enlightenment period) and Cold War was a war between countries of different ideologies. A civilization, the highest and broadest grouping of a people, is a cultural entity (Huntington's theory is similar to Renan). Due to greater interactions between nations, a greater cultural consciousness, and economic and social modernization we see some civilizations come together more than others. This is specifically apparent in the East vs West ideology (competing civilizations are east, west, and islamic) Conclusion: There are certain implications for the west and the world that they are going to functions in and relationships with the eastern civilizations is important. Civilizations are endogenous because we create them and they are socially constructed.

The Moral Sense, James Wilson

Argument: Humans have an innate moral compass Evidence: It is shown that there is something in us that makes us responsible for our kin (yet infanticide is an interesting conflict). When children socialize they are intuitively moral and can sympathize with others(not empathize) and detect emotion in others. Darley grocery store lone bystander vs group (personal responsibility in group situations is diffused). We learn fairness even when there is a trivial negative effect we base decisions based off of how fair they are (Starbucks line). In evolution we have developed sympathetic behavior because we have communities (natural sociability) Conclusion: infant care, familial obligation, and kinship essentially explain how our social order is constructed and it is across boards of all cultures

Race and Poverty in America: Public Misperceptions, Gilens

Argument: News and Media portrayals and public images of poverty effect the way that Americans perceive the population that benefits from social welfare Evidence: In reality 29% of African Americans make up the population of the poor, but population tends to think that they make up 50% of the poor population. A study looked at poor people in magazines and how they were portrayed and African Americans were about 62% of poor people. Was rarely portrayed sympathetic groups like children and elderly. This has also only grown over the years from a portrayal of 50% in 1985 to 63% in 1991. This portrayal happens because of availability and suitability. Availability is because news companies are typically located in metropolitan areas where there os a disproportionate about of AA poor people than the actual national poor population. Suitability of the portrayal of these stories comes from a single perspective Journalist's "reality judgement" which is skewed Conclusion: The idea of a poor person does not represent the majority population of poor people simply due to the images represented throughout media

The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics. Philip Converse

Argument: People lack meaningful political attitudes Evidence: Very little people were able to reference significant policies that would correlate with their affiliation to a specific party. Majority of people judge politics on favorable party without strong argument of specific candidates and their policies. 37% of people who were surveyed could not categorize democratic and republican policy. 53% could accurately distinguish liberal and conservative parties and give logical reasoning based on policy and this was the sophisticated group. Varied voting participation was highest among sophisticated group. Mass base of the Nazi movement represented one of the more unrelievedly ill-informed clienteles that a major party has assembled in a modern state. Rise of Republican Party was evidence of masses following elites whose policies did not correlate with the traditional Republican Party policies Conclusion: Impossible to change the impression that people have on a specific candidates when they connect themselves with a certain political party. Majority of people lack informed political opinions

Why Political Science is Not an Election Casualty, Drezner

Argument: Political Scientists did not get their calculations wrong for the 2016 election Evidence: Dylan Matthews looked at historical events (past elections, state of economy, Obama's approval rating) and how they would impact people's decision making and trump underperformed in many of the mains areas but Matthews was able to get one of the closest percentages Conclusion: We need to consider the fact that electoral college and popular vote will not match up and consider bigger ideas about the electorate and the state of the country than just the candidates performance

Moochers and Makers in the Voting Booth, Dean Lacy

Argument: Politics of taxing and spending do not divide Americans by party in the voting booth Evidence: It is a common misconception that democrats are the moochers and republicans are the makers. 2004 study showed that many people believed that they pay more than they receive from the government. When asked if they receive the same, still 56% said they pay more but receiving the same and receiving more were pretty split. Specific demographics like blacks and low income families are likely to believe that they benefit more than they spend. In 2004 more whites believed that they benefitted than nonwhites, but in 2008 these states began to converge. Race of candidate had much to do with how much people thought they were spending compared to how much they were in reality. (Ex: whites believed they were spending more when Obama was president) Conclusion: More of a distinction in perceived spending between race and president race vs the actual party affiliation

Is Political Science This Year's Election Casualty, Blakely

Argument: Reason why Trump one was because of ignorance (due to assumptions made based on political models) and cultural separation Evidence: agrees with Charles Taylor that humans are self-interpreting animals and behavior cannot be calculated Conclusion: Humans act on own demographic, economic and political identity

What is Politics, Sartori

Argument: The definition of Politics depends on the multitude of perspectives that you consider Evidence: Ancient Greek polis was a man in his community. Aquinas states that humans are political and social animals. Politics was initially a horizontal system were it was simply a grouping of people who went by the same policies. Machiavelli says that politics is corruption (ends justifies the means). Aristiotle- politics is good and represent a higher order of humanity. Hobbes- politics is strictly a constructed body of rules which does not consult moral/ethics. Sartori specifically saw politics through an economic sense. Economy- free of jurisdiction, markets solve problems and is spontaneous (is the economy being independent give us any information about how politics is independent?) Conclusion: Politics is unique. Politics is independent and has it's own rules that only relate to politics. Politics is self-sufficient (autonomous) - doesn't need economic psychology. It is a first cause so it generates everything else and is prior to everything else (everywhere there is a society there is a politic and everywhere that there is a market there is a politic)

The Composition of Political Attitudes, Gordon Allport

Argument: Voters have unique individualistic attitudes that are resistant to change that impact their decision making Evidence: Questionnaire to a group of 375 Dartmouth students. Consistency in patterns of party affiliation, education, voting choice and socioeconomic status. Conclusion: There are certain personality descriptors and background that tend to correlate with different party affiliation. political character and behavior are bound with attitudes and generic traits in personality

The Phony Washington Consensus, Thomas Frank

Argument: Washington's group of political scientists is outdated as well as the fact that political events are not necessarily entirely predictable (don't think I really caught thesis here) Evidence: Frank disagrees with Ezra Klein who says politicians rather listen to scientists over politicians. Frank argues that Washington DC stays with the politicians that they havre always used and it is an outsider vs. insider game. The outsiders can say whatever they want, but the insiders don't listen and are the ones with the real power. Democrats are playing the game wrong because they are in a small number of urban congressional districts which go to the GOP. The seats in the house will not change unless there is a large geographic change in these areas or the Dems appeal to "lost voters". Conclusion: There is a great divide between the Dems and the Reps right now because people are very focused on culture

The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, John Zaller

Argument: We have in ourselves a set of say "attitudes" that influence our decisions and we are influenced by elites or what we perceive to be the status quo that correlates with these attitudes Evidence: responses are unstable over time, but still centered around the mean of the underlying considerations. Educated people will hear elites state their opinion with many considerations in their head. People will support or oppose a given policy depending on the mix of positive or negative considerations from the top of the person's mind at the moment of answering a question (Urn Method) Conclusion: only the most aware citizens will have a consistent ideology or belief system.

The End of History, Francis Fukuyama

Argument: it is the man's ideological advancement/evolution that creates a new history and we are currently at a standstill with liberalism and democracy at the forefront. Evidence: French Revolution was the indicator of the liberalisms triumph in the political and economic systems. The failure of communism and disappearance of the Soviet Union has resulted in the victory of liberal democracy and capitalism. There has been a worldwide growth of Western consumerist culture and a gradual movement towards democratic and liberal reforms in countries that previously embraced alternate ideologies. Nations are satisfied with this being the attainable. Conversion of Catholic to Protestant communities shows that one ideology can have victory over another ideology which means that for example people of the East could come to value Western ideology. Religion and Nationalism are unresolvable contradictions to a liberal society Democratic Liberalization (how does Fukuyama argue that this is unimportant?). encourages growing marketization of international relations and diminution of the large-scale conflict between states so there will be no antithesis in Hegel's terms Conclusion: boredom may catalyze more history, but it will not longer be the synthesized in Hegel's terms

Nonseparable Preferences Explain Over-Time Instability in Survey Responses, Dean Lacy

Argument: large portion of voters do not have meaningful beliefs. Opinions on non separable issues display response instability over time, but it has more to do with the fact that these issues are nonseparable and answers will change depending on the situation. (Over the course of a survey) Evidence: 1/3 of respondents do not change their stance on political issues by the end of the test. People were asked multiple questions on 4 topics where each question contained 2 different topics. The goal was to observe how the answers changed throughout the test. People's answers were most consistent with fairness being more important than balancing the gov's budget in a rational negative way. Conclusion: new information can change induced preferences without changing underlying preferences so response instability really is not that significant (people's opinions on big policies and party ideologies remain consistent)

Monica Lewinsky's Contribution to Political Science, John Zaller

Argument: voters attitudes are based on their priorities at hand and attitudes Evidence: in the Lewinsky scandal Clinton's positive performance raised from about 60% -> 70%. Economy was doing well at the time and elites/media could only focus on Clinton negatively because of the Lewinsky Scandal (shown to have effected presidential ratings before displayed by Ford's case). Conclusion: voter attitudes prioritized Clinton's true presidential performance by the success in the economy over Clinton's morals and what was happening in his private life. (*sidenote: people may not have meaningful political opinions but they do have innate political attitudes)

minimalist public opinion?

Converse 1. low temporal correlations 2. A) policy preferences are uncorrelated B) Uncorrelated with ideology/party ID/ and vote choice 3. Order and word effects (consistent with Zaller)

distinguish Egocentric voting vs. Sociotropic voting

Egocentric: Evaluate one's own well-being - usually economic, though not necessarily Sociotropic: Evaluate the well-being of the nation as a whole of of specific social groups which one identifies Sociotropic voting outweighs egocentric voting

According to James Q. Wilson, the central problem for social science is to(differentiate Edward Wilson and James Wilson):

Explain social order

Argument: There has been a voting gender realignment of women voting more left and men staying steady to the right due to political and economic development, generational cohorts, and structural and cultural factors Evidence: 1980s there was a leaking in women's conservatism due to the feminist movement. Women had more work force opportunities so they needed to establish institutionalized benefits like equal pay. Age between women displayed a change in generational ideology. Conclusion: There are many reasons for women to start voting more liberally over time

Gender Gap, Inglehart & Norris

Which of the following groups is/are counted as part of the voting age population but not the voting eligible population?

Incarcerated, people who are residents but not citizens, green card holders

Mayhew's theory of Congress

Motivational assumption depicts congressmen as pure politicians, single-mindedly pursuing reelection

Provide Examples for Subjective and Objective morality

Objective right and wrong: moral sense Subjectively right and wrong: in Germany it is illegal to fly a nazi flag, but here we are allowed to display confederate flags

According to Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, a decline in which of these is the primary cause of the decline in voter turnout between 1960 and 2000?

Primarily - Partisanship Secondary - efficacy (in people's feelings that they can effect the government)

What Refutes the Pluralist Theory of Democracy?

Second face of power is against pluralists- A can influence situations that face B, then A has the power to effect B in ways that benefit A Collective Action Problems, Agenda Control, Crafting TARP (arrow's theorem, bc it could go either way)

Who is deciding what the vote will be at the end of the day?

The swingers. 40% of the vote is dem and 40% of the vote is republican and the middle 20% are the independents or simply people who are not paying attention (typically people try to show them that they will benefit economically)

differentiate something hat is theoretical vs something that is empirical

Theoretical: conclusions based on previously proven Empirical: conclusions based off of observation and evidence

Who Voted? Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde

Thesis: Analyzing the voter demographic Evidence: Immense decline in voter turnout as we approach the 20th century. Major factors that effect voter turnout => war, religion, women who became of age after 19th amendment, and levels of education. 1922- whites are 18% points more likely to vote than blacks. 1964 whites were 12.2% more likely to vote than blacks. Whites are more likely to vote, but that gap seemed to be closing in the mid 20th century(not anymore because of voter disenfranchisement) Younger people are much less likely to vote than other people. stats show that educated, white, and religious females were some of the highest characteristics( or simply more likely to report it). After the voting rights act of 1965 the south has increased electoral competition where as its declined with north. Higher income is more likely to vote. Voting has defclined significantly since 1960 but higher education has slowed down this decline from being 6% points compared to a predicted 19% points. party affiliation raises turnout because of the psychological inclement, but feelings of political efficacy are weakly related Conclusion: educated, white, and religious females were some of the most likely to vote. Voting declined specifically because of felony disenfranchisement

Class is Dismissed, Thomas Frank

Thesis: Bartel's criticism is wrong based on social class disagreement, misrepresentation, and failure to make a definitive argument. (Original argument: working class is increasingly republican and they are not voting in their best interest) Evidence: In Frank's initial paper he states that middle class uneducated Americans are starting to vote less democratic. Bartel rights a response paper that disagrees. Frank shows that Bartel is considering the working class as the lowest income class when Frank considered them the middle income class. The group that Bartel considered was essentially those in their mid twenties or retirees Conclusion: Bartel showed that white low income Americans vote more democratic, but he was wrong in the way he criticized Frank's work

What's the Matter With Kansas, Bartels

Thesis: Frank is wrong because people of lower income whites are voting significantly less democratic Argument: 1930-1940 is economic division (Rich republicans, poor democrats) 1950-1960 was educational cleavage 19709s is social and cultural cleavage 1952 - 1940 Trends: - Dems support with nondegrees in South is -20%, but in non-south is is -1% (Frank's argument is only significant to Southerners) Conclusion: Cultural and social equality does not outweigh economic security

Even Critics of Safety Net Increasingly Depend on it, Applebaumand Gebeloff

Thesis: Many people are critical of social welfare even if they depend on it Evidence: General problem and consensus is to raise taxes and lower federal spending especially on welfare. Many people w/ personal experience taking benefits, support spending cuts. Americans get approximately $3 for every $1 spent towards medicare. It is expected that cost will raise 60% over the next decade. Americans say: 70% -> raise taxes 56% -> cuts in medicare and social welfare 44% -> favored both Conclusion: Many people are either against it because they are losing money or do not believe that it is sustainable.

Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-scale Field Experiment, Gerber, Green, and Larimer

Thesis: People vote based on rational self interest and the pressure of social norms Evidence: In this study, each group was sent a reminder to vote group 1: civic duty, group 2: researchers would be studying their turnout, group 3: contained record of turnout among the household, group 4: revealed household and neighborhood turnout by name. There was an 8% greater amount of voting for 4th group instead of 1st group Conclusion: People are more motivated by the judgement of others to vote vs. the fact that it is their civic duty

Unequal Participation: Democrat's Unresolved Dilemma, Lijphart

Thesis: Voter turnout is a serious democratic issue in the United States Evidence: US has one of the lower voter turnouts compared to other democracies around the world. Top 1/5 educated group has 10% greater population than the lowest 1/5. In elections in the post where we have tended to vote more democratically the votes have varied directly with a larger population. There is a decimating turnout for US 50-60s (60-65%) and then 80s and 90s (50-55%). This is largely due to felony disenfranchisement. Registering on Election Day would raise turnout by 15% which is why things like compulsory voting are allowed in countries were low voter turnout is extremely predominant (violates individual freedoms and is considered unconstitutional in the united states) Conclusion: There are institutions that are able to raise voter turnout and we should continue to look into these, but voting for nondedicated minorities is very low

Changing Politics of American Men, Petrocik

Thesis: salience and attitude contribute to gender gap and men have voted more republican Evidence: Attitude Hypothesis -> underlying political preferences Salience Hypothesis -> men and women weigh issues differently when evaluating parties and candidates. Women have been more constant in voting democratically, but men have voted more republican. As of 1996 gender has been predicted to be the largest social cleavage. Men are on average 6% more conservative with social spending than women Conclusion: Men have voted more republican because they see issues like economy more important

Banzhaf Power Index

Votes cast in large population states have more weight in US presidential elections than votes cast in small population states

Wilder-Bradley effect

Wilder-Bradley effect: White voters were saying before the election that they would vote for the AA candidate and then voted for white candidate

Activation, Reactivation, Deactivation, and Persuasion

activation- getting people to realize why it makes sense for them to vote for you reactivation (most effective and used one) - getting people who are not planning to vote for you, but should vote for you because it is in their best interest, to realize why they should vote for you deactivation- finding people who are likely to vote for your opponent and making them so unsure about voting for them, essentially deter them from the other candidate persuasion- Take someone who should be voting for the other candidate, but you move them over to your side

Hinich and Munger definition of Ideology

an ideology is an internally constituted set of propositions that makes proscriptive (action or behavior concerning a norm) and prescriptive (relating to the imposition of enforcement) demands on human behavior

According to John Zaller, most people (relating to their thoughts and voting)

are ambivalent about most political issues

To Samuel Huntington, the source of future international conflict will be competition:

between civilizations

What is actually true about Frank's study

in Andre Gelam's study we see that skilled workers are moving rapidly towards being more republican

definitions of internal vs external efficacy

internal: the feeling that the person has that they can change thing and that their vote matters external: is that the government will listen to the people (as a body)

The Anti-Federalist's problem with the constitution?

it created a national government that endangered individuals' and states' rights

How does Compt describe the relationship between society and politics

it is the social system that give birth to the political system

Urn model

more red marbles and blue marbles in our head, but we already have these marbles so they should remain more consistent with one party. We have predetermined attitudes based on our party allegiance (/media influence) which allows us to make choices without even having predetermined answers on the specific issue)

Separable Preference

name for the type of preferences that are fixed and will not be changed situationally

Equilibrium Outcome in the Prisoner's Dilemma

no player would have an incentive to change their strategy if they found themselves about to realize this outcome and were given the opportunity to change their strategy. Both players benefit a significant amount and the one player saw that they could help themselves in the situation

compare the two different ways that public opinion is decided between the on-line model and the memory based model

on-line: keeps a running tally of the considerations and summary of them memory: mental file and you put all of the ideas and opinions in your head that correlate with the specific policy and they are all brought up when you think about that topic

According to Zaller's RAS model, which people are the most likely to change their opinions during election campaigns:

people who are moderately informed

Gordon Allport's definition of Attitude

person's inherent qualities to action/behavior which is built by integration of numerous responses to a stimulus (behavior is indicative of the attitude/responses than of the actual stimulus)

Nonseparable Preferences

preferences that can be changed/effected by new information. Mindset that issues are interrelated

Which variables change in 2004 - 2012

race (both groups (whites and nonwhites) switched in their perceptions)

Explain Melungeons example

they are tri-racial isolates (black men and white woman). Any child born to a white woman was free(still excommunicated). They were anything besides African-american. Social groups are typically politically defined because race does not really exist (social construct, but still a more political construct because it all has to do with policy which distinguishes these races). If you were 1/16 African then you were not allowed to vote, but if you were part Native American then you could vote. (Racism being socially constructed from politics)

Directional theory

voters will sit on a point on a scale (7 point scale) and regardless of the distance between them and the candidates they will vote for the person that is on their side of the neutral point. Exception: They are less likely to vote for an extreme candidate on the end of the scale (*if the electorate is symmetrically distributed center then whoever can persuade the the public that they have good values will win)

Selection Bias

when you study something you are selecting the things that you can study empirically