POL 376 U.S. National Security Policy Haney Final Exam

Bush Doctrine

The use of Unilateralism and preventative war, the United States now had a right to secure itself against countries that harbor or give aid to terrorist groups. This doctrine was strongly associated to the invasion of Iraq in '03. Combated terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, NBC's.

Governors Island and Harlan County

June 27: Cedras and Aristide met separately w/UN mediators (proximity talks) to discuss Cedras stepping down and bringing Aristide back July 3: Governor's Island, NY, agreement is signed UN's Haiti Assistance Group American/Canadian military and police Go to Haiti to train Haitian military and police, a united force = FAd'H August: DoD authorized Joint Task Force, JTF-HAG, led by Col. J. G. Pulley of the Army JTF planning staff in Norfolk, VA (USACOM) had several staff from diff. services who were sent to USACOM on short notice September 21: UNSC authorizes 1200 military/police to Governor's Island w/225 travelling on USS Harlan County

OAS and the UN

OAS tried to restore Aristide and failed. UNSEC Council took a crack a it. Former Argentine diplomat Dante Caputo became UNSECGEN's Special Representative to negotiate, but failed In June 1993, UNSEC Council cuts off petroleum, oil, and lubricants to Haiti, making it difficult for the junta to maintain power

Law Enforcement or War?

Oklahoma City + Atlanta Olympics How do we think about terrorism? Terror in the Cold War didn't pose a threat to the country, even though it was still deadly. Terrorists, to be able to function at the end of the day, had to have some kind of association with a state. They needed training, and that training had to take place in a country that could provide resources, weapons, blueprints, foreign intelligence, and so forth. With some exceptions (the more violent wings of the IRA, for example) The gist was that these terrorist groups were manageable by focusing on the state sponsors of terrorist activity (for example, Libyan Intelligence Services who provided intel to terrorists with Gaddafi's approval - which led to a full-some attack on Libya during Reagan's administration). Should you think about dealing with terrorism from a law enforcement standpoint or from a war standpoint? The prevailing view in the 1990's was that it was a law enforcement situation; it's not that you wouldn't use military or CIA assets, but that you should take them to the full extent of the law.

Tora Bora

A mountain range in Afghanistan, where we believed many al-Qaeda were hiding. We bombed the hell out of it to either kill them or drive them to a particular path. Instead, some stayed (we weren't there to catch them since we went in light). We were driving them into the hands of our "rentals". Going light ended up costing us dearly at Tora Bora. The idea that you could have airpower to bear and a few special forces that worked with locals sounded like a great idea (perfecting a Vietnam-era idea)

Arkbar Awakening/ Surge

After 2006, in the face of the Democrats possibly shutting down funding for Iraq, Bush went in heavier The problem is that the light footprint that Rumsfeld wanted in the first place was gone when the insurgency became a full on civil war. The idea is not to double down on failure (light footprint), but double down on muscle The problem, THEN, is that it happened at the same time as the Awakening. So we had to figure out how to not make this a full-scale civil war. At the end of the day, in that scenario, the enemy is us, not them. The awakening is imagining your self-interest differently. But what do you DO with the heavy troops - in different parts of Iraq had different uses for troops. The decrease in violence, in some parts but not all (even though they were all really violent), was in places where you go in heavy but don't act heavy

Crisis after the Aristide Coup

Coup creates international crisis Political crisis from Americas to the UN OAS + UN condemned coup; called for restoration of Aristide OAS appoint Augusto Ocampo, Colombian diplomat, to help negotiate; UN sends Boutros Boutros-Ghali from Argentina, too Sanctions and diplomacy didn't work, since there were no real consequences; only the people suffered Haitians flee and try to get to Florida

Jean-Bertrand Aristide

Became famous for being a firebrand Catholic priest Spoke loudly in favor of Haiti's poor and against Jean-Claude dictatorship Catholic Church and mulatto elite hated him, Expelled from Salesian Order as a priest, Still developed a following among the poor, Ran for president in 1990 and won, "Lavalas" ("The Flood") - his movement Disorganized, not enough educated/managers to run gov't Survived two coup attempts between re-election Rene Preval, Smark Michel - ministers in gov't who served with Aristide Lt. Col. Raoul Cedras, first class Haitian Military Academy grad, serving Aristide Aristide often turned supporters into opponents Never spoke out against violence, arresting opposition with vague reasons Antagonized military and the rich Failed to build support in the legislature Overthrown in coup by Cedras and Michel Francois, Chief of Police, on 9/30/1991

Richard Clarke

Clinton administration holdover into the Bush administration. He headed the counterterrorism mission as the "counterterror czar". His hair was on "fire" during the late-1990s and was acting with extreme urgency. He was locked on and believed that the world was missing that there were parts of the planet not controlled by stable states. In places like Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen, there are places where groups operate very much independently with lots of cash. That Osama was bringing together finances to sponsor different terrorist attacks. Many believed that Clarke was over the edge. They had a meeting set up to discuss how to deal with Al-Qaeda on September 10, 2001 (wow!)

Clinton Admin, and assertive multilateralism

Faced multiple tough issues: Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, DPRK (threatening, demanding attention, but hard to solve) Not fully staffed to deal with these issues, especially in subcabinet Clinton reversed, saying the high levels of migration meant forced repatriation (also b/c of Florida's governor) Congress and Haitian Americans wanted something done and Aristide back in power

Karzai

Favored by the United States he took the reigns of Afghanistan after the Taliban was defeated. He helped the economy of Afghanistan but there was a lot of civilian discontent with him and he urged the United Nations to attack terrorist safe havens because terrorism was rebounding at an alarming rate.

Northern Alliance

Formed by Ahmad Shah Massoud it included a lot of Tajiks and they fought a defensive war against the Taliban government. They lost almost all of their land by 2001. The United States needed to provide support to them and they led a 2 month war which they ended up winning. After the Taliban was defeated they established the Karzai Administration.

Wars of Necessity/Choice (Richard Haass)

Haass was a staffer on George H.W. Bush's national security team Haass wrote books like the "Reluctant Sherriff" to describe US' role in the world One book was Wars of Necessity, Wars of Choice ---- countries can fight wars that they have to fight in and wars they can decide to fight in He was saying necessity was Afghanistan, while Iraq was of choice - you can see the Scowcroft in his head about the Iraq War opinion The idea was that we got the eye off the ball, we have to get it back on the ball again That idea began to lurk after Bush, but Obama inherited the ideas of what we had to do in Afghanistan

Robert Kagan

He was a neo-conservative that was an early and strong advocate for the military action to rid Bin Ladin of power. He was then John McCain's foreign policy advisor during his campaign.

Bush 41's Response

Impacts on the Bush Admin While Bush and team tried ending Cold War with a new Russia, Kuwait, and helping Kurds in Northern Iraq----Haiti was a distraction, but un-ignorable Initially housed refugees in Guantanamo, Cuba Then came forced repatriation, since they were economic and not political refugees (policy was debated in 1992 election

"Chatter"

Increased intelligence about some things, but aren't sure where the attacks will be Attacks in the US? Attacks outside US? After 9/11, the daily brief became very important There wer a lot of warnings, but there's warnings everywhere so it's hard to believe which one "Bin Laden Determined to Strike US" You can see that the mental state didn't shift to combining the concept of suicidal attempt via airplane The plan to blow up planes in the Pacific never = 9/11

Haiti the Predatory State

Out of 41 Haitian heads of state between 1804-1994, 31 died violently, fled the country, or were forced to step down. The other ten never completed a full term Guillaume Vibrun Sam, president in 1915. Opposition gathered cacos (countryside thugs) to oust him. Succeeded and dismembered him Ensuing chaos triggers Marine's 1915-1934 occupation Dr. Francois Duvalier, president 1957-1971. Succeeded by his son, Jean-Claude. Ruled with iron fist via: voodoo, a militia of modern cacos and Tonton Macoutes ("boogeymen") to offset military/police power, Died in 1971, regime became less predatory 1986-1990: four different presidents, none serving full ter

De-Baathification/Paul Bremer

Paul Bremer was sent in order to lead the Coalition Provisional Authority. they also had a policy undertaken in Iraq by the CPA in order to remove the Baath parties influence in the new Iraqi political system. They did this because of the large number of atrocities over the hands of the Baath people. They let no member of the Baath party reintegrate into the political system.

Unity of Command

Special operations command had to report CENTCOM instead of JSOC Inter agency rivalry "It ain't gonna happen tommy" CIA got there first, so they had ultimate command

2000 Election

The Bush folks were focused only on states with missile programs as the real danger to the US, not terrorists. They felt that we've been chasing the nation-building myth that we missed the missile threats. The Gore camp was less persuaded by that, but it didn't matter since Bush won. There was a very fast transition in the Bush camp's thinking.

Counterterrorism Center (CTC) and CIA

There's a division in whether to think about foreign threats already here or domestic threats motivated by things happening abroad. The FBI had this sort of wall that kept them from thinking about terrorism in one way or the other

Riedal Review

The argument was out there that the Defense Dept wanted to "jam" Obama --- boxing him in and giving him very little options Normally, it's very goldilocks for the options you can do (we can do this hard intervention, light one, or one in the middle) Kinda like the iraq policy group Defense basically told him that you have no choice but to go hard (30k) - we did this review, did it again = here's the number! The Riedel review said that the civilian aspects were just as important as the military ones That it's a civilian problem, not just a military one. Surging both military/civilian assets. One of the ways they decided to approach Afghanistan was to think of it as a cohesive set (problems in Afghanistan cause problems in Pakistan --- problems are interlinked). Richard Holbrooke, architect of Dayton Peace Accords, came in as a very hard charger and made a portfolio. How would you feel if you were the State Sec, but for everywhere except for Afghanistan and Pakistan? It made Holbrooke the tsar of these two countries! If you're Pakistan, you might not be crazy about what's happening in Afghanistan --- well not everything, but some things! You're number one problem is India, not Afghanistan. So the focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan may've been a little too limited, but good thought. India wasn't so crazy about Obama, but they liked Bush. They believed that with Bush, the US though India was a major global actor. They were limited as a "pawn" against Afghanistan and China, just a regional actor, in a sense under Obama. Pakistan got the call from Powell's deputy, with a long list of hard demands they had to meet or else they'll get invaded. They said absolutely, but eventually weren't as concerned. They were never as worried about AFG as IND. Pakistan has different strategic goals than Afghanistan.

Vulcans

The foreign policy team that came together during the Bush administration Various men came to Austin TX to "teach" Bush about foreign policy Iraq was "unfinished business" from Bush 41 - if Bush 43 were to become President, he may have to finish it Team of advisers assembled during the campaign

Sadr

The leader of the shia Sadrist Movement (the Madi group); basically a cleric from Sadr City His dad was killed by Saddam in the 80's which gave the Shia a real leader You get them to sit down, no civil war. You get them stand up, civil war.

Obama's Team

There was a mix of policy people on there, political people on there, and people who are policy people that were former political people EX: Leon Panetta was a congressman but then became a policy person (former DCI guy)

US-Iraqi status forces agreement

This was signed in 2008 by George Bush and established that US armed forces would leave in 2009. They turned ruling to the Iraqi administration after 2009 and absolute sovereignty was insisted upon.

Zalmay Khalil

US diplomat in Iraq, knew the language people and culture, more on the diplomatic side of things

Patreus/ Counter Insurgency Strategy (COIN)/ "Hearts and Minds"/ Tal Afar

War is an extension of politics. We need a political solution, not a military solution. The military is a defense tool for a political solution. Petraeus: I don't wanna have to kill you, but I won't lose sleep if I have to. I'm not gonna bang doors down like in the early parts of the war, but I'll be a lot more decisive and incisive. Living in villages, helmet off, gun at the ground. The only way to win the war is to win the Hearts and Minds ---- a very Vietnam strategy (Johnson's strategy) But how do you win the hearts of mind of people you blow up and arrest? That's the challenge of coin. How do you mix respect, diplomacy, and lethality for success. That's the brilliance of Petraeus and McMaster in how they did that; there aren't many good examples of good COIN strategies that work. The average time they took is 15-20 years, which is a LOT of patience we don'thave.

Jay Garner

Was in charge before Bremer, he believed that they should just relieve top level bureaucrats, but not go down 4 levels of administration "or else youll have every man in the country with no job and plenty of guns". He was relieved of duty and de-baathification started three days after.

Powell at the UN

Was urgently trying to go to war with Iraq, he ultimately succeeded in hardening the overall tone of the UN towards Iraq. He explained that Iraq held the terrorist unit Al-Qaeda by a man named Zarqawi. He also claimed Osama Bin Ladin was held up in Afghanistan and provided training to Al Qaeda. Ultimately regretted the decision to give the speech.