POLS 3301 - Conflict in the Middle East: Exam One
Who is Muammar Qaddafi?
Former Prime Minister of Libya, came to power through irregular succession
What is memory-based procession?
Simultaneous recall and evaluation of multiple pieces of information
Explain the market for the support system.
• Everything that helps smooth operation of the military. • (Cooking, cleaning, barracks maintenance, transportation, etc.) • Private Military Contractors.
Explain the market for major weapons system.
• Cannot be carried by an individual soldier. • Exp: Cannons, tanks , etc. 1. Resource Intensity: Harder to build. 2. The market is client-specific. 3. Dual-monopoly: A market with a single buyer for a good and one supplier for this good
What is the "Ideal Point"?
Optimal possible division of the good, among all of the possible divisions.
Explain the limitations of peacekeeping and peacemaking?
+Peacekeeping Undercutting Peacemaking: -- Peacekeeping can take the pressure off of the disputing parties to compromise and reach a permanent agreement. -- When peacekeeping missions deploy to a situation that is not fully settled, it may potentially lock into a stalemate. -- Bilateral negotiation and mediation attempts are much less common once peacekeepers are in place. +Missing the Local Context -- Democratic reforms and economic liberalization. -- May lead to competition and conflict, possibility of creating losing groups: Exp: Local elections, free market. -- If adequate institutional safety nets are not already in place to find legitimate political and economic options for losers, liberalization might actually hasten a return to civil war. -- Mundane interactions between local citizens and international peacekeepers. +Peacekeeper abuse +Feigned Interest in Peace as a Stalling Tactic: -- Gaining time to regroup before renewing hostilities.
Why do states comply with alliances?
- Alliances help states fight wars more effectively - The political Costs of violating alliances - Join and Design Alliance Treaties Carefully
Explain the Case Study: North Korea.
- Dates back to first Korean War (1952). -- Atomic Energy Research Institute. --- Atomic energy - Soviet Union agreed to assist North Korea (1959). -- Nuclear Power plant at Yongbyon. - North Korea signed the NPT (1985). - Joint declaration for denuclearization with South Korea (1991). - The Agreed Framework (1994). -- North Korea agreed to suspend activities at Yongbyon, and allow international inspectors back into the country. - The Agreed Framework fell apart (2002). - North Korea has tested nuclear weapons six times (From October 2006 through October 2017). - Why does North Korea want nuclear weapons? -- High level of threat perceptions. --- Attack from the United States and its allies, especially South Korea. -- North Korea's strategic goals. --- Keeping the US out in case of a conflict with South Korea. - How did they succeed while others failed? -- Economically and politically isolated country. --- Less affected by sticks and carrots. -- Nuclear power technology is over 70 years old, and the information is available. - Would North Korea ever give up nuclear weapons? - MAD? Nope.
What are possible critiques of the Bargaining Model?
- Fighting the war may bring benefits - What if individuals cannot make accurate cost-benefit calculations - The illusion of Indivisibility - The evolution of fighting during war
How do institutions shape leaders' decisions?
- Foreign policy occurs as a result of an interaction between leaders and domestic political institutions - Personalist leaders are less restricted - Democracies are more restricted. There is separation of powers
Explain the Quantitative Study: The Settlement of Civil Wars
- Hypothesis: Civil wars are more likely to end in negotiated settlement if, during the civil war, a third party offers a security guarantee. - Data: -- 72 civil wars. -- Years 1940 - 1992. - Dependent Variable: Negotiated settlement. - Independent Variables: Third party involvement (deployment of peacekeepers) & Control Variables (exp: ethnicity, political system, etc.) - Result: Third party involvement helps. The presence of a third party security guarantee made it significantly more likely that a civil war would end in negotiated settlement. 5% vs. 55%.
Explain the Case Study: Bargaining and the World War II in the Pacific
- Japan's conflict with China - The US economic santions: Oil & gas - Two options: Strike a deal w/ US or going to war }- Commitment Problems: The US was growing. It could reengage the settlement. Preventive measures. Go to war now, better than later. -Outcome --Power: both agreed --Resolve: Disagreement (Pearl Harbor) --Commitment Problem: Japan's commitment to peace --Hiroshima & Nagasaki --Japan finally gave up in 1945
Explain the Case Study: World War I (Chapter 4)
- Kaiser Wilhelm II: Left arm during birth. Treatments including electroshocks. Rose to power at the age of 29. Very ambitious. Wanted Germany to be a world power. Military background without combat experience. Leader's personality played a significant role in the WWI decision.
Explain the dilemmas of peacekeeping and peacemaking?
- Mediator Bias: Peacekeepers and third parties involved in adjudication and arbitration should be impartial. -Leverage -Multiparty Involvement
Why would countries pursue nuclear weapons?
- National Security - Personalist Regimes - More Isolated Countries
Explain the quantitative study: Battlefield events
- Rational Expectations Model vs. Elite Rhetoric Model. - Year: 2008. - Rational Expectations Model: -- Democrats and independents: positive news will make them more optimistic. -- Republicans: negative news will make them more pessimistic. - Elite Rhetoric Model: -- Republicans: positive things: more optimistic. -- Republicans: negative things: more pessimistic. - Independent Variable: news events & presidential comments: positive, negative, neutral. - Dependent variable: level of optimism. - Results: rational expectations model is accurate. Public's views are a reflection of real world events and not just a reflection of what their political leaders want them to hear.
Explain the Quantitative Study: Does Nuclear Extended Deterrence Make Allies More Likely to Start Wars?
- Research Question: Do nuclear umbrellas, or extended deterrence, create a more hazard that makes war more likely? - Hypothesis 1: Nonnuclear client states protected in an alliance by a nuclear weapon state are more likely than states that lack a nuclear patron to initiate a conventional militarized interstate dispute (MID). - Hypothesis 2: Nonnuclear client states protected in an alliance by a nuclear weapon state are more likely than states that lack a nuclear patron to escalate a conventional militarized interstate dispute (MID). - Data: All pairs of countries between 1950 to 2000. Dyad-year is the unit of analysis. -- Exp: France-Germany 1957. - Dependent Variable: -- Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs). --- Existence of MID. --- Intensity of MID. - Independent Variables: -- Key Independent Variable: Whether there is an alliance. -Control Variables. - Results: Support for Hypothesis 1, but NOT for Hypothesis 2. Having a nuclear-armed ally makes a country more likely to initiate MIDs, but not more likely to initiate MIDs that escalate to war.
Explain the Quantitative Study: Rebel Experience and Nuclear Proliferation.
- Research Question: What is the impact of having a former rebel become head of state on the probability that a country pursues nuclear weapons? - Hypothesis: Countries with former rebels as heads of state are more likely than states with non-rebel leaders, on average, to pursue nuclear weapons programs. - Dependent Variable: Nuclear weapons pursuit. - Independent Variables: Whether a leader had a prior rebel experience, control variables. - Results: Rebel experience increases the probability of nuclear weapons pursuit by almost 415%.
Explain the quantitative study for Chapter 7.
- The role of mediation in interstate crises from 1918 to 2015. - Hypothesis 1: Crises with mediation are more likely to end in a formal agreement than crises without mediation. - Hypothesis 2: Crises with mediation are especially likely to end in a formal agreement when the mediator manipulates the incentives for reaching a deal and stopping aggression. - Hypothesis 3: Mediation that relies on the manipulation of incentives will be less likely to increase the durability of peace after a crisis has terminated. - Dependent Variable: 1) Whether the parties reached a formal agreement. 2) Whether tension has been reduced. - Independent (Explanatory) Variable: -- Whether mediation occurred. -- Manipulative mediation or non manipulative mediation. - Several Control Variables. - Results: -- Mediation increases the formal agreement. Mediation makes crisis termination in a formal agreement more than three times more likely. -- Mediation decreases tensions. -- Manipulative mediation increases the propensity of formal agreement even more. -- Manipulation does not change the level of tension too much.
What is the role of media in politics?
- politically polarized news environment has reduced trust in the news media as a whole - the division of the media environment along partisan lines allows citizens to select news coverage that reinforces their existing beliefs
Explain the relationship between American income taxes and world wars.
-- No war taxes in the last three wars: • 1991 Gulf War. • War in Afghanistan. • 2003-2011 Iraq War. -- War taxes in earlier wars. -- World War I and World War II are different. • Permanent changes in the US tax system. • Permanent annual tax on income only came into existence with the passage of the 16th amendment in 1909 (ratified in 1913). -- Before the 16th amendment. Taxes on foreign trade. -- War finance was one among many factors. An important one. -- When first ratified, it was a modest tax. • Higher in the highest bracket. The more money you made, the more tax you paid. -- Things changed dramatically in 1917 with the US entry into the war. • A lot more households were now paying higher taxes. • Overall, 30% of the war was financed through taxes. -- World War II • Total cost of war $320 billion ($4.4 trillion in 2017 prices). • Bonds & taxes (Half from taxes). • Between 1939 - 1941 the tax rate more than doubled. • In 1944 the tax rate more than doubled again. • - In 1944, the highest bracket reached up to 94%. • - Plus, the cutoff for that bracket has plummeted.
Explain the Case Study: Alliances on the Onset of World War I.
--Before the War: • Europe - Balance of Power: States balanced against each other using international alliances. • Triple Alliance Defense Pact: Italy, Germany, Austria-Hungary. • Defense Pact with Romania: Italy, Germany, Austria-Hungary. • Defense Pact: Russia & France. • Several Bilateral Treaties: Britain & France. • Consultation Pact: Britain & France. • Alliance for Belgium: Germany, Britain & France. • Alliance between Britain & Japan. • Close Relations (No Alliance): Russia & Serbia. --How did it start? • Serbian terrorist attack. Archduke Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, was assassinated. • Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. • Germany declared war on Russia & France. • Germany invaded Belgium. • Britain declared war on Germany. • Italy: Despite the defense pact with Germany and Austria-Hungary, it didn't join the war at the beginning, claiming that Triple Alliance was a defense pact. • Bandwagoning: Italy then joined the war by declaring war on Germany and Austria-Hungary. • Romania, similar to Italy. Despite defense pact, bandwagoning, greed for territory. • Japan declared war on Germany. • The Ottoman Empire fought with the Germans.
Explain the conflict in Burundi.
-1994 - 2006. Hutu & Tutsi. -Since then mediation attempts and peacekeeping operations trying to stabilize the country.
What are the two types of nuclear weapons?
-Atomic Bombs (fission chain reaction, uranium or plutonium) -Thermonuclear bombs (fusions reaction, more powerful)
Explain Balance of Power Theory.
-Balancing-states respond to an increase in power by others by increasing their power -equal distribution of capabilities reduces the likelihood of war and leads to stability LOGIC: victory becomes problematic under a condition of parity (cannot predict victory with high certainty) and uncertainty deters aggression
Explain the war in DRC.
-Hutus, who were refugees in Zaire. -Mobutu Sese Seko. -Laurent Kabila (Tutsi fighters). -Angola, Chad, Namibia, Zimbabwe in support of Kabila, Rwanda and Uganda against Kabila. -Second Congo War. African World War. -Several mediation and peacekeeping attempts to stabilize the country. -MONUSCO.
What are advantages of alliances?
-Interfering with domestic politics: trade deals -Keeping in power a particular leader -Projecting power in the larger region -Containing nuclear proliferation -Free riding for small states
Why do countries make alliances?
-The world is dangerous -- Increasing military capabilities -- Hiding -- International alliances -Alliances are an integral part of the balance of power
Explain the Rwandan Genocide
-Tutsis vs. Hutus. -Different ethnicities based on physical differences, and the number of cattle owned by the family. No genetic differences. -Hutus: shorter, Tutsis: longer, narrower nose. -In 1935, Belgians issued identity cards. -Hutu majority, Tutsi minority. -The root of the genocide was socially constructed. -Ghosts of Rwanda. (Available on Youtube) -Hutu-dominated Rwandan government & Tutsi dominated Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) first broke out in 1990. -In 1993, UNOMUR (United Nations Observer Mission Uganda-Rwanda) in order to secure the border between Rwanda and Uganda. -In 1993 Arusha Accords to end the conflict. -In 1993 UNAMIR (United Nations Assistance Mission in Rwanda) -1994 Presidents of Rwanda and Burundi were assassinated. Plane shot down. -Hutu generated genocide in 100 days. -RPF victory. Paul Kagame is the president. -Post-conflict relative stability in Rwanda includes critical international aid and development projects. -ICTR (International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda): Since it opened in 1995, the Tribunal has charged 93 individuals. -62 sentenced between 1995 - 2015.
What is Arms Race?
A competition between nations for superiority in the development and accumulation of weapons, especially between the US and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War.
What is dual-monopoly?
A market with a single buyer for a good and on supplier for this good.
Why does military strategy matter for conflict decisions?
A state can substantially improve its chances for winning if it selects the right military strategy, even if it does not have a larger army or better military technology.
What is "Preventive War"?
A war begun by a state to prevent an adversary from being a stronger threat in the future.
What is the League of Nations?
An international organization formed in 1920 to promote cooperation and peace among nations.
How can countries deliver nuclear weapons?
B-29 Bombers Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) Submarine-launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs)
Explain Cuban Missile Crisis?
Brink-of-war confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union over the placement of nuclear-armed missiles in Cuba.
What are commitment problems?
Change in balance of power Possibly of one side breaking a deal Preventative war
What is Consultation Pact?
Consulting each other in the event of crisis or war
Does health influence leaders' decisions?
Deteriorating health conditions can be an obstacle
Why does third party intervention matter for conflict decisions?
Diverging beliefs about the likely actions of a third party in the event of war can lead the sides to disagree about who would win a war.
How would nuclear proliferation decrease international stability?
Every new nuclear state increases the risk of accidental nuclear war
How would nuclear proliferation increase international stability?
Fear of the cost of nuclear war.
What is regular succession?
Follow prescribed rules that determine who selects the leader, and if there is a vote, how that vote occurs
What is Margaret Thatcher?
Former British Prime Minister; example of gender difference
Who is Saddam Hussein?
Former President of Iraq; example of prior rebel experience
Why do commitment problems increase in civil conflicts?
Government can reengage Rebels can not easily restart the war after surrender
What are guns and butter?
Guns: soldiers, pilots, guns, tanks, etc. Butter: Roads, hospitals, schools, etc.
What is the "Little Boy"?
Hiroshima. 15 Kilotons of TNT. 1 kiloton is 1000 tons.
What is elite rhetoric model?
How communication is used to to legitimize class privilege. From the perspective of those people and places who often stand to gain most from inequality.
Why do military capabilities matter for conflict decisions?
If two sides disagree about the balance of capabilities of the two sides, they are likely to disagree about a war's likely outcome, eliminating the bargaining space and making war more likely.
What is Stability-Instability Paradox?
Increases stability: Fear of the cost of nuclear war Decreases stability: every new nuclear state increases risk of accidental war
Why do states fight?
Information Commitment Problems Issue Indivisibility
Explain "Confirmation Bias"
Information provided by the military force may not be useful because defeats may not be counted.
Since the end of WWII, which type of conflict has increased? Interstate or Intrastate?
Intrastate
Explain framing?
Issue frames tell people how to give meaning to new information
What are scare goods?
Items that actors desire, but that not everyone can have simultaneously.
What is on-line processing?
Mental Shortcut; People form attitudes without remembering all the information
What is the "Fat Man"?
Nagasaki. 21 Kilotons of TNT.
Explain "Rally round the flag".
Nation supporting the leader during war time. Boost of domestic support.
What is NPT?
National Proliferation Treaty
What is NATO?
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
What is Non-Aggression Pact?
Not to attack each other
What is Neutrality Pact?
Not to join any other state fighting another signatory
Why would countries NOT pursue nuclear weapons?
Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Hard to Build
Why does military technology matter for conflict decisions?
One side may be confident in victory because of its technology, but the other side views the first side's confidence as misplaced because it is unaware of or dismisses the significance of the technology.
What is Defense Pact?
Only if ally is attacked first
What is Offense Pact?
Only if an ally starts a war
What is the "Bargaining Space"?
Overlap between the two sides' range of acceptable bargains is the set of bargains both would prefer to reaching no agreement.
What is peacemaking?
Peacemakers are third parties that become involved during a violent conflict and try to help the actors move toward conflict deescalation and resolution.
What is Audience Cost?
Penalty a leader incurs from his or her constituency if they escalate a foreign policy crisis and are then seen as backing down
Who is Kenneth Waltz?
Political Scientist from UC Berkeley and Columbia University; responsible for Classical Realism
What is Extended Deterrence?
Promising protection Benefit: Allies do not acquire nuclear weapons
What is FARC?
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
What is Second Strike Capability?
Security of knowing your weapons can survive an initial attack is thought to be stabilizing, and to make war less likely.
Explain "Diversionary Wars"
Shifting the nation's attention from internal problems to external conflicts. Temporary boost of support.
Who is Stanislav Petrov?
Soviet Officer who did not launch nuclear weapon in the midst of nuclear threat, which turned out to be a false alarm.
What does volunteerism mean?
Still, the need to offer adequate incentives
What is the difference between tactical weapons and strategic nuclear weapons?
Strategic - Designed for use against an adversary's military command sites, bomber bases, ICBM silos, or cities. Tactical - Small scale designed for use on battlefield against regular military forces
Does ideology influence leaders' decisions?
Systems of beliefs and ideas that coherently connect to policy preferences
How do governments fiance wars?
Tax, print money, borrow
What is the Kashmir Dispute?
Territorial dispute between India and Pakistan which has been going on since 1947.
List the countries, which have nuclear weapons.
The US (1945) Russia (1949) The UK (1952) France (1960) China (1964) Israel (1967) India (1988) Pakistan (1990) North Korea (2006)
What is First Strike Capability?
The ability to destroy an adversary's nuclear arsenal in a first strike
What is elasticity of reality?
The disconnect between what is real (what politicians know) and what politicians tell the public.
What does "Issue Indivisibility" mean?
The goods can't be separated from the actor or divided, like land.
What is Nuclear Deterrence?
The idea that the potential threat of nuclear retaliation prevents large-scale attacks against nuclear-armed states or their allies.
Why does "resolve" matter for conflict decisions?
The willingness to absorb costs in the pursuit of victory.
What is Warsaw Pact?
Treaty of mutual defense between Russia and other countries in Eastern Europe
What is Mutually Assured Destruction?
Two countries with secure second strike capabilities that are facing each other are said to be in a position of MAD
How is the casualty rate related with public support?
Wartime approval represents the result of cost benefit calculation, where causalities are the most key cost. Leaders have wide leeway to justify the use of military force until increase of costs
Who is Mobutu Sese Seko?
Was the military dictator and President of the DRC
When do states agree on a peaceful settlement instead of conflict?
When both reach the bargaining space, usually after more information is revealed during conflict.
What is irregular succession?
When leaders come to power through means other than planned elections or clear rules of succession from one ruler to the next
Explain Free Riding.
When those who benefit from resources, public goods, or services do not pay for them, which results in an under provision of those goods or services.
What is "Reversion Outcome"?
When two sides fail to reach a deal dividing the scarce good.
What is the "Reservation Point"?
Worst possible bargain a party would prefer as compared with the outcome of not reaching a bargain.
Do gender differences shape leaders' decisions?
Yes: Women are more nurturing, less militaristic No: Women are less likely to be heads of state in the first place. The ones who do rise to higher officer are more likely to be those who demonstrate behavioral characteristics more like the average man
What is anarchy?
a lack of government rule
What is Isolationism?
a policy of remaining apart from the affairs or interests of other groups, especially the political affairs of other countries.
What is Bandwagoning?
a strategy in which states join forces with the stronger side in a conflict
What is Manhattan Project?
development of the atomic bomb
What is militant internationalism?
divides Americans on their willingness to use force
What is cooperative internationalism?
divides people among of lines of their willingness to participate in the national arena, ranging from those who prefer to go "at it alone" to those who support multi-lateralist positions
What is the commercial peace theory?
economic interdependence between nations can prevent war
What does conscription mean?
government mandates military service for all (universal conscription) or a portion (selective conscription)
What is rational expectations model?
individuals base their decisions on three primary factors -their human rationality -the information available to them -their past experiences.
What is Arms Control?
negotiation and agreement to limit the production of new weapons
What is golden arches theory?
no countries that both have mcdonald's franchises have ever gone to war with one another after acquiring those franchises
What is arbitration?
the settlement of a dispute by a neutral party, binding outcome
What is Domino Theory?
the theory that a political event in one country will cause similar events in neighboring countries, like a falling domino causing an entire row of upended dominoes to fall.
What is First Strike Instability?
use it or lose it
Explain the Quantitative Study: Do Alliances Bring States Into Wars?
• Research Question: Is one state more likely to go to war on behalf of another state if the two states share an alliance with security guarantees? • Hypothesis 1: A state will be more likely to intervene on behalf of the initiator of a war if it has an alliance with an offensive obligation to the initiator. • Hypothesis 2: A state will be more likely to intervene on behalf of the target of a war if it has an alliance with a defensive obligation to the target. • Data: 95 Interstate wars, from 1816 to 2007. • Dependent Variable: 1) Not to intervene, 2) To intervene on the side of the initiator, 3) To intervene on the side of the target. • Independent Variables: Presence of an alliance, + Control Variables (Exp: Geographical Distance, likelihood of winning, etc. ). • Results: Support for both hypotheses: Alliances shape behavior. Offense pact: 150%, Defense pact: 24% more likely to intervene.
What is mediation?
• The participation of a mediator requires the consent of the combatants. • Mediator decisions are not binding. • May be single round of negotiations or multiple negotiations. • May involve single third party or multiple third parties. • May involve direct talks or shuttle diplomacy. • Representatives of global or regional international organizations (Exp: UN), third party state governments, NGOs, or private citizens.
Explain the market for warriors.
• Warriors refers to military labor: All persons employed in a government's armed forces (soldiers, pilots, cooks, technicians, etc.) • In 2016, the total defense budget for the United States military was ~$500 billion. 1/3 goes to the personnel. • Monopsony. Single buyer. Government. Citizen-soldier. • Entire population is a pool for military personnel. • Volunteerism and conscription.
Explain the market for small arms.
• Weapons directly carried by military personnel. • More producers. • Price range is huge.
Explain the Quantitative Study: Does cheaper debt help you win a war?
• Whether cheaper finance actually improves war outcomes. • Research Question: Is a state more likely to lose a war if it is unable to acquire affordable credit? • Hypothesis: The price of credit is more important for democratic states in determining war outcomes. • All interstate wars in the Correlates of War (COW) dataset from 1823 to 2007. -- War: Conflict between two or more sovereign states that resulted in at least 1,000 battle deaths. • Dependent Variable: War outcome. • Independent Variable: Interest rate on a government's debt. -- Higher interest rate means larger repayment. -- All things being equal, raising money is more expensive the higher the interest rate. • Results: A higher interest rate lowers the probability of a country being victorious, regardless of its regime type. • When the regime type is considered, it is important for democracies compared to non-democracies