SANCTIONS - World Quest
how are UNICEF opportations in Syria impacted by sanctions?
intervention has been delayed, and it's more expensive to intervene
why have targeted sanctions and comprehensive sanctions become overlapped?
more sanctions, sanctions targeting important economic things like central banks (some so broad they're considered de facto comprehensive sanctions), extraterritorial sanctions, de-risking
have Iranian sanctions helped the public?
nah because a ton of extra people were killed, and organized crime and groups like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were empowered
has America been known to discuss with countries what needs to happen in order to lift sanctions?
no lol
reasons for sanctions
nonproliferation, counterterrorism, counternarcotics, democracy promotion, human rights promotion, conflict resolution, cybersecurity
how long do executive orders last?
one year unless extended by the president or terminated via joint congressional resolution
how many sanctions are on Iran?
over 1600 post-JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action aka the Iran nuclear deal)
what is a forgotten consequence of sanctions?
overall quality of life in countries goes down
specially designated nationals
people and businesses on OFAC's commercial blacklist
what happened to BNB Paribas?
they pleaded guilty to processing money of blacklisted entities, were fined $9 billion, lost ability to translate foreign currency into dollars for a year
what were some of the things Russia did in response (financially)?
they raised interest rates to 20% and converted currency into rubles
what is "de-risking" or overcompliance?
"De-risking refers to the phenomenon of financial institutions terminating or restricting business relationships with clients or categories of clients to avoid, rather than manage, risk."
what is availability bias?
"In psychology, the availability bias is the human tendency to rely on information that comes readily to mind when evaluating situations or making decisions. Because of this bias, people believe that the readily available information is more representative of fact than is the case." the public doesn't tend to consider sanctions as deadly as war or wmds or bombings or whatever
name some things that can be considered sanctions
travel bans, assets freezes, arms embargos, capital restraints, foreign aid reduction, trade restrictions
how much and for how long have we been (arguably ineffectively) sanctioning Cuba?
$130 billion over the past sixty years (since 1962)
the Russian central bank???
$630 billion dollars
what are the estimated success rates of different types of sanctions?
34% overall 51% modest policy change (releasing prisoner) 21% larger (disrupting military activity)
how much Venezuelan oil was exported to the US in 2018 prior to sanctions?
35%
how many countries have sanctions on Russia?
38 (North America, Europe, Asia)
how many deaths were related to Venezuelan sanctions between 2017-18?
40,000 (derived from increased mortality rates)
what percentage of sanctions are successful according to Shane Smith?
5-30%
what percentage of international loans and invoices are in dollars?
50%
how was Syrian food production impacted?
53% drop in wheat 70% drop in lentils 30% drop in chickpeas 38% of country couldn't meet basic food requirements
which group removed sanctions from Iran following the JCPOA?
UN
what has Venezuela and its president Nicolás Maduro been accused of?
human rights violations, insufficient counterterrorism efforts, narcotics trafficking, and financial crimes
what are the most common objectives of modern sanctions?
improvements in human rights and restoration of democracy
what has the number of sanctions done since 1950?
increased duh
what is an example of a politician attacking an opponent for wanting to negotiate with regimes?
John McCain at Obama
how much have global food prices risen?
28% in 2020, 23% in 2021, 17% between February and March of 2022
how many children a month were killed as a result of sanctions according to a '93 UN report?
1,000
how many entities were sanctioned per year in the US from 2016 to 2020 on average?
1,000+ (more than 80% increase from previous eight years)
how long is the SDN list?
1,346 pages
how many deaths from the H1N1 virus in 2019 were contributed to by sanctions?
1,600
what are ten ways Russia was sanctioned by the US (and others)?
1.) cutting off Sberbank from the US financial system by imposing correspondent and payable-through account sanctions 2.) imposing full blocking sanctions on VTB, Bank Otkritie, Sovcombank OJSC, and Novikombank 3.) debt and equity restrictions on thirteen of the most critical major Russian enterprises and entities 4.) full blocking sanctions on Russian elites and their family members 5.) sanctioning 24 Belarusian entities 6.) restrictions on Russia's military 7.) restrictions on imports of technological goods 8.) exempting countries that impose similar export restrictions from US licensing requirements for goods produced in said countries 9.) diminished access to SWIFT (messaging system for cross-border payments) 10.) made it more difficult for Russian central bank to buy rubles to support currency
how can sanctions be improved?
1.) limit them to specific targets 2.) be laxer 3.) make it harder for the executive branch to impose unilateral sanctions
about how many lives could have been saved if Iran sanctions had been lifted in 2020?
13,000
what are some examples of sanctions being imposed for purely political reasons?
1989 post-Tiananmen Square protests by Bush, 1935 Italian Sanctions by Britain
how much do UN/US sanctions reduce GDP?
2.2%/year, 25% over ten years 1%/year, 13.4% over seven years
when did Russia start to un-link its economic system to other countries?
2014 following Crimea annexation
how many countries have entities targeted by US sanctions according to the treasury website?
22
what percentage of foreign currency transactions have to be bridged through dollars?
85%
why was it bad for Europe to ban Syrian oil imports?
95% of those imports went to Europe
which sanctions do Americans support/oppose?
Americans tend to support Chinese, Russian, DPRK sanctions, oppose Cuban sanctions
who all sanctioned Russia?
Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, and the UK
who did the US sanction in 2019 for symbolic purposes?
Ayatollah Khamenei
who is the biggest importer of Iranian oil now?
China (with 800,000 barrels per day in January 2022)O
which countries are sanctioned on the Treasury Department website?
Belarus, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, the former Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe
what has the trend been concerning Congress' response to the president taking unilateral action in foreign affairs?
Congress has been more assertive (e.g. more legislation about Russian sanctions, the Saudi war in Yemen, other War Powers Resolution -esque legislation).
what is the only country still sanctioned under the Trading with the Enemy Act?
Cuba
DPRK?
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
9/11 impact on sanctions?
EO 13224 (Treasury Dpt. can freeze assets/transactions of suspected terrorist supporters), Treasury gained authority to designate entities "primary money laundering concerns," risks for organizations/banks conducting suspicious activity raised globally
where does that 34% number come from?
Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: History and Current Policy by Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J Schott and Kimberly Ann Elliott
a report from who found that agencies don't consider the effectiveness of sanctions?
Government Accountability Office
on which nation did the League of Nations place an arms embargo, financial transaction freezes, and export/import bans?
Italy, the world's 8th largest economy at the time, after Benito Mussolini invaded Ethiopia in 1935 *these sanctions failed to stop the invasion because the US and Germany didn't join
agencies and departments that deal with sanctions
Office of Foreign Assets Control (Treasury Department), State, Commerce, Homeland Security, Justice Departments
who was targeted in Belarus sanctions?
President Aleksander Lukashenko
what were those two pre- Cold War UN sanctions?
Rhodesia and South Africa
why aren't there sanctions on Russian gas and oil as opposed to everything else?
Russian gas/oil has yet to be subject to sanctions because it would be consequential for western nations, but outside of Russian energy, companies are fine with leaving Russia because it isn't the best market for pretty much anything else
UN body responsible for sanctioning
Security Council, Interpol
name examples of successful sanctions
South African sanctions ending apartheid, sanctions on Lybia after Quaddafi blew up a plane, Serbian sanctions because Slobodan Milosevic wouldn't leave Bosnia and Kosovo alone
what law kind of started American sanctioning?
Trading with the Enemy Act (1917)
name examples of unsuccessful sanctions
US sanctions could've led to Pearl Harbor, other sanctions could've led to more deaths than all weapons of mass destruction
which countries are notably not sanctioned by the UN?
Venezuela and Syria
who was Pericles?
a statesman in Athens in the 5th century B.C. who ordered all trade banned between the Athenian Empire and Megra
what should different types of economies do to counteract spillover (unwanted effects) from Russian sanctions?
advanced economies should focus on long-term infastructure investment to ease supply chain pressures, avoid rapidly tightening monetary policy to prevent capital flight, reign in their food/energy demands developing economies should make income support a priority, destructure debt, have increases in IMF Special Drawing Right allotments (international reserve currency), obtain humanitarian relief
why did Japan finally attack the US in WWII?
after the US imposed an oil embargo (Japan had become dependent on American oil); sanctions hit Japan a lot harder than Italy
why were new sanctions placed on Cuban officials in the first place?
after the government's response to July 2021 protests
how did Obama sanction Syria in 2011?
aiming to sanction Bashar al-Assad's regime, Obama signed an executive order freezing Syria's assets, prohibiting Syrian oil importation, and prohibiting American investments and businesses in Syria or with the Syrian government.
what were the changes in US policy toward Cuba in May 2022?
amending the Cuban Assets Control Regulations fascilitating family reunification - reinstating Cuban Family Reunification Parole allowing more travel to Cuba - Office of Foreign Assets Control amended CACR, authorized travel under general licenses, educational/group travel easing restrictions on remittances - eased $1000 restriction, allowed for nonfamily remittances (except for "Cuba Restricted List" folks and FINCIMEX) supporting the Cuban private sector - authoriizing greater access to US internet services, applications, e-commerce platforms, microfinance, training
how many children were killed by sanctions on Iraq in the '90s?
an estimated 500,000
how do US sanctions typically start?
as executive orders, but congress can pass and modify sanctions
this was the point at which I stopped taking notes for sake of time
basically, sanctions negatively impact children, and the UN doesn't like unilaterally-imposed or autonomous sanctions
why did Reagan declare a national emergency?
because the Export Administrative Act of 1979 was about to expire! 8O
why don't sanctions cause regime change?
citizens have a hard time gathering enough to overthrow a government, elites benefit from the regimes, other countries can help regimes, and sanctioned regimes are typically still able to fund their forces
what did sanctions tend to look like pre-2000s before people in the 90s heavily criticized them?
comprehensive trade embargoes
what has the impact been in Syria on humanitarian efforts?
half of Syrian hospitals no longer operating, COVID response delayed, humanitarian organizations can't help 12.4 million (60% of Syrian population) are food insecure 90% of children need humanitarian aid to survive, 2.5 million are out of school
four types of sanctions?
diplomatic sanctions, targeted sanctions, arms embargoes, economic sanctions
what are some types of negative food shortage coping mechanisms Syrians have resorted to?
early marriage, begging, borrowing, child labour, child recruitment into conflict
autarky
economic self-sufficience (of a country)
how far did vaccination rates drop in Syria between 2006-16?
from 95% to 65%
who was Robert Pape?
his critique of sanctions brought the idea that they might not work a more widespread idea
how is Iran doing?
poorly; an estimated 60% of the population lives below the poverty line, food insecurity doubled after 2018 re-impositions of sanctions
when did the UN start sanctioning more?
post- Cold War (1990s)
why were North Korea's post- Korean War sanctions some of the most devistating?
prices of Pyongyang apartments dropped, more elite defections, Chinese banks stopped doing business with North Koreans, joint enterprises were deserted, less visible commerce in border town, force labors were returning home because they couldn't pay loyalty kickbacks to the state, worst economic crisis since 90s famine, unicef says sanctions aren't helping the effort to help north koreans despite food/medicine exceptions
EU sanctions are called...
restrictive measures (passed by 28 member bloc)
to what types of countries are the toughest sanctions applied?
rogue states
how are Russian sanctions impacting other countries??
sanctions remove Russian commodity exports from world markets, prices are driven higher, pressure is put on import bills and constrained public finances of net-commodity-importing emerging market and developing economies I guess
what are extraterritorial sanctions?
secondary sanctions, secondary boycott; sanctions meant to restrict the economic activity of a third country
what's up with sanctions in Syria?
started out targeting individuals in 2011, then focused on government financial resources effect most of the economy government responded by raising taxes, cutting spending/subsidies on necessary things
an economy as significant as Russia's has not been sanctioned since when?
the 1930s (Japan and Italy)
how did the Great Depression affect foreign trade relations?
the Great Depression undermined trust and thus international political stability, escalating trade wars into diplomatic disputes, initiating a trend towards political/economic blocs, creating lots of tension whenever sanctions were imposed, diminishing world exports, driving global price deflation, lowering export earnings, making imports cheaper, increasing autarky?????
what were the effects of Syrian sanctions?
the International Monetary Fund estimated that Syria lost 75% of its GDP which was substantially due to sanctions
International Emergency Economic Powers Act
the president can regulate international commerce via executive order in response to a threat or emergency
how did sanctions affect Saddam Hussein in Iraq?
they didn't; Hussein's family got rich off his son's oil-smuggling business
how open has Russia's economy become since the Cold War?
very (trade-to-GDP ratio of 46%; only higher countries are Mexico and Turkey)
how does the UN pass sanctions?
with a majority vote out of fifteen members and without a veto from the United States, China, France, Russia, or the United Kingdom
could the US help Cuba after its massive oil storage fascility fire disaster?
yeah